The Economic Impact on the Global Security Landscape by ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen
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The Economic Impact on the Global Security Landscape By ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen June 2019 The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL SECURITY LANDSCAPE By ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen ABSTRACT As the global market is volatile, countries will need to adapt to certain direct and indirect economic policies to protect their citizens. Such policies, which may include Isolationism, will have extreme reactions on either end of the spectrum by its citizens and the rest of the world. Such reactions will affect the world’s security as it is threatened by a fear of terrorism, major disease outbreaks and other menaces. According to the author, many countries, especially smaller countries like Singapore, will have to rely on regional institutions to improve co- operation between countries and be part of a collective effort to provide a more stable economic market and security landscape. The author feels that Singapore should strengthen the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) through public engagements to gain public support and capability transformation to sustain the country, especially in dealing with threats, external or otherwise. The author concludes that even as the world faces more complex security challenges in the coming years, Singapore will be well-poised to meet these challenges if it can strengthen its security agencies and national unity while supporting multilateral institutions and their stabilising effects against belligerent states and growing terrorist threats. Keywords: Stagnation; Trans-boundary; Isolationism; Multilateral; Austerity INTRODUCTION respective nations’ ability to project power far beyond their shores, and have resulted in cuts to their force The international security landscape has evolved structure that may be irreversible.2 significantly in the last decade due to both economic and geopolitical factors. The growing risk of inter-and- Certainly, these cuts are part of a wider slew of intra-state conflict amidst rising militarisation and austerity measures. However, public opinions on extremism is exacerbated by increasing isolationism defence spending vis-à-vis social spending have amongst developed nations. Rhetoric and action in the increased the pressure on governments to rebalance past, especially in the post 9/11 period where the their budget in favour of welfare payouts, healthcare Global War on Terror was in full swing, are no longer and education.3 While the public recognised the need matched today in the face of tightening national for a strong defence force amidst the rise of terrorism, budgets and economic stagnation. Singapore faces polls have indicated that support for forward military similar threats and our defence policies must also deployments have waned. In Germany, 58% of those evolve to counter these security challenges. surveyed were against the use of military force to defend a NATO ally against Russia in the event of a THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT 4 ON SECURITY serious military conflict. The confluence of political and economic factors have led to continuing decline in Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world NATO defence spending, with countries halting or has faced unprecedented secular stagnation due to delaying expensive procurement projects, such as the F- persistent weakened demand. This problem is prevalent 35 Joint Strike Fighter for Canada and the Trident among the developed countries and various fiscal and submarines for the UK.5 Many countries faced monetary policies have failed to reverse the downward increasing pressure to pull out their soldiers from economic trend. In recent years, turbulent market and coalition forces and have been hesitant in committing slower growth in China also contributed to the ground troops to support conflicts in the Middle East economic slowdown. In response, many developed and Eastern Europe, preferring to provide auxiliary nations, particularly the North Atlantic Treaty support to proxy forces in the form of logistics and Organisation (NATO) countries such as the United States armaments. (US) and the United Kingdom (UK), have embarked on significant cuts to their military budgets as part of A by-product of the economic downturn is the austerity efforts.1 These have handicapped the resultant rise in the vulnerability of ordinary citizens to 1 The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape self-radicalisation. At the height of the economic crisis, response, smaller states in East and Southeast Asia have unemployment rates, especially in Europe, were high also strengthened their military forces. The brewing and there were increasing unrest over the harsh arms race and tussle for political influence in the South austerity measures that were implemented. These have China Sea are potential flashpoints that could be been identified as possible factors that allowed terrorist triggered if miscalculations arose. This precarious organisations to recruit a greater number of well- situation is aggravated by the destabilising effect of a educated, middle-class citizens during this period.6 This weakened US, with doubts in their ability and is reinforced by the growing income gap after the global willingness to come to the aid of countries such as Taiwan and Japan in a military conflict with China.11 In financial crisis, where the poorer and less-skilled Europe, Russia has also increased its defence spending workers were the most vulnerable to poverty due to 7 in recent years, triggering panic among Eastern their lack of labour mobility. This fuelled dissatisfaction European nations.12 Similarly, a lack of direct with the government and the capitalist system and was intervention in the Georgian and Ukrainian conflicts also cited as a possible factor that drives otherwise have allowed Russia to continue its aggression ordinary people to commit terrorist acts or join terrorist unabated, while confidence in NATO’s security promises organisations, where they are accepted as equals in continue to decline. The dangers of proxy wars in the 8 aspirational jihadi campaigns. The middle-class, with its Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe are real increased exposure to financial risk, greater access to and could undermine the security efforts of NATO and terrorist networks’ online propaganda, and sufficient the European Union (EU). resources to travel to Middle Eastern states for training or to join the fight, are increasingly susceptible to The middle-class, with its radicalisation. increased exposure to financial RISKS OF INCREASING ISOLATIONISM IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD risk, greater access to terrorist The increasing isolationism of the developed networks’ online propaganda, and Western world poses significant risk in the international sufficient resources to travel to security landscape due to two main factors. The first factor is the projected increase in military spending, by Middle Eastern states for training up to 20%, in Asia-Pacific.9 Of particular concern is the double-digit growth in military expenditure by China or to join the fight, are increasingly over the past two decades as it seeks to expand its sphere of influence within Asia-Pacific and beyond.10 In susceptible to radicalisation. Wikipedia The UN headquarters building in Baghdad after the Canal Hotel bombing, on 22nd August 2003 2 The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape The second factor is the rise of transboundary While escalation is not desired in most scenarios, timely terrorism. Some pertinent examples include the Islamic intervention and show of force where necessary is State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda, which have crucial to curb wild ambitions. been embroiled in conflicts in Syria, Libya and Iraq over the past few years. As the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR have shown, conventional armed forces are typically ill- SINGAPORE? suited to fight against asymmetrical threats—protracted Singapore, as a small nation, cannot escape the conflicts also drain extensive resources and morale, 19 which are generally unpopular among the public.13 With effects of a global economic stagnation. In the face of the reduction in military budget and popular support, a lacklustre economy, calls for cuts in defence spending to support social services have intensified. One developed nations are fighting an uphill battle to prominent example occurred in the 2015 General commit the necessary forces in the fight against the Election, when the Singapore Democratic Party raised Islamic State. The rise of Low-Intensity Conflicts (LIC) the issue of our allegedly excessive defence spending has forced armed forces around the world to transform and proposed total transparency in defence their doctrines, training and equipment. However, 20 acquisitions. Although public opinion of the military nations run the risk of shifting too far, resulting in has improved with increased public engagements, weaknesses against conventional enemies. This was especially after the SG50 celebrations, it is uncertain if evidenced in the Israeli-Lebanon conflict where there is widespread recognition of Singapore’s Hezbollah forces employed conventional tactics against vulnerability amongst the public.21 The false sense of the Israelis, who were more prepared to fight security, especially among young Singaporeans, is 14 protracted LICs against the likes of Hamas. Calibration detrimental to the nation’s collective commitment to for hybrid warfare requires fine balancing and presents defence. Hence, the challenge to the SAF’s relevance