The Economic Impact on the Global Security Landscape by ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen

The Economic Impact on the Global Security Landscape By ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen

June 2019 The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL SECURITY LANDSCAPE

By ME4 Gerald Goh Qi Wen

ABSTRACT As the global market is volatile, countries will need to adapt to certain direct and indirect economic policies to protect their citizens. Such policies, which may include Isolationism, will have extreme reactions on either end of the spectrum by its citizens and the rest of the world. Such reactions will affect theworld’s security as it is threatened by a fear of terrorism, major disease outbreaks and other menaces. According to the author, many countries, especially smaller countries like Singapore, will have to rely on regional institutions to improve co- operation between countries and be part of a collective effort to provide a more stable economic marketand security landscape. The author feels that Singapore should strengthen the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) through public engagements to gain public support and capability transformation to sustain the country, especially in dealing with threats, external or otherwise. The author concludes that even as the world faces more complex security challenges in the coming years, Singapore will be well-poised to meet these challenges if it can strengthen its security agencies and national unity while supporting multilateral institutions and their stabilising effects against belligerent states and growing terrorist threats. Keywords: Stagnation; Trans-boundary; Isolationism; Multilateral; Austerity

INTRODUCTION respective nations’ ability to project power far beyond their shores, and have resulted in cuts to their force The international security landscape has evolved structure that may be irreversible.2 significantly in the last decade due to both economic and geopolitical factors. The growing risk of inter-and- Certainly, these cuts are part of a wider slew of intra-state conflict amidst rising militarisation and austerity measures. However, public opinions on extremism is exacerbated by increasing isolationism defence spending vis-à-vis social spending have amongst developed nations. Rhetoric and action in the increased the pressure on governments to rebalance past, especially in the post 9/11 period where the their budget in favour of welfare payouts, healthcare Global War on Terror was in full swing, are no longer and education.3 While the public recognised the need matched today in the face of tightening national for a strong defence force amidst the rise of terrorism, budgets and economic stagnation. Singapore faces polls have indicated that support for forward military similar threats and our defence policies must also deployments have waned. In Germany, 58% of those evolve to counter these security challenges. surveyed were against the use of military force to defend a NATO ally against Russia in the event of a THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT 4 ON SECURITY serious military conflict. The confluence of political and economic factors have led to continuing decline in Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world NATO defence spending, with countries halting or has faced unprecedented secular stagnation due to delaying expensive procurement projects, such as the F- persistent weakened demand. This problem is prevalent 35 Joint Strike Fighter for Canada and the Trident among the developed countries and various fiscal and submarines for the UK.5 Many countries faced monetary policies have failed to reverse the downward increasing pressure to pull out their soldiers from economic trend. In recent years, turbulent market and coalition forces and have been hesitant in committing slower growth in China also contributed to the ground troops to support conflicts in the Middle East economic slowdown. In response, many developed and Eastern Europe, preferring to provide auxiliary nations, particularly the North Atlantic Treaty support to proxy forces in the form of logistics and Organisation (NATO) countries such as the United States armaments. (US) and the United Kingdom (UK), have embarked on significant cuts to their military budgets as part of A by-product of the economic downturn is the austerity efforts.1 These have handicapped the resultant rise in the vulnerability of ordinary citizens to

1 The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape self-radicalisation. At the height of the economic crisis, response, smaller states in East and Southeast Asia have unemployment rates, especially in Europe, were high also strengthened their military forces. The brewing and there were increasing unrest over the harsh arms race and tussle for political influence in the South austerity measures that were implemented. These have China Sea are potential flashpoints that could be been identified as possible factors that allowed terrorist triggered if miscalculations arose. This precarious organisations to recruit a greater number of well- situation is aggravated by the destabilising effect ofa educated, middle-class citizens during this period.6 This weakened US, with doubts in their ability and is reinforced by the growing income gap after the global willingness to come to the aid of countries such as Taiwan and Japan in a military conflict with China.11 In financial crisis, where the poorer and - less skilled Europe, Russia has also increased its defence spending workers were the most vulnerable to poverty due to 7 in recent years, triggering panic among Eastern their lack of labour mobility. This fuelled dissatisfaction European nations.12 Similarly, a lack of direct with the government and the capitalist system and was intervention in the Georgian and Ukrainian conflicts also cited as a possible factor that drives otherwise have allowed Russia to continue its aggression ordinary people to commit terrorist acts or join terrorist unabated, while confidence in NATO’s security promises organisations, where they are accepted as equals in continue to decline. The dangers of proxy wars in the 8 aspirational jihadi campaigns. The middle-class, with its Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe are real increased exposure to financial risk, greater access to and could undermine the security efforts of NATO and terrorist networks’ online propaganda, and sufficient the European Union (EU). resources to travel to Middle Eastern states for training or to join the fight, are increasingly susceptible to The middle-class, with its radicalisation. increased exposure to financial RISKS OF INCREASING ISOLATIONISM IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD risk, greater access to terrorist The increasing isolationism of the developed networks’ online propaganda, and Western world poses significant risk in the international sufficient resources to travel to security landscape due to two main factors. The first factor is the projected increase in military spending, by Middle Eastern states for training up to 20%, in Asia-Pacific.9 Of particular concern is the double-digit growth in military expenditure by China or to join the fight, are increasingly over the past two decades as it seeks to expand its

sphere of influence within Asia-Pacific and beyond.10 In susceptible to radicalisation.

Wikipedia The UN headquarters building in Baghdad after the Canal Hotel bombing, on 22nd August 2003 2 The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape

The second factor is the rise of transboundary While escalation is not desired in most scenarios, timely terrorism. Some pertinent examples include the Islamic intervention and show of force where necessary is State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda, which have crucial to curb wild ambitions. been embroiled in conflicts in Syria, Libya and Iraq over the past few years. As the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR have shown, conventional armed forces are typically ill- SINGAPORE? suited to fight against asymmetrical threats—protracted Singapore, as a small nation, cannot escape the conflicts also drain extensive resources and morale, 19 which are generally unpopular among the public.13 With effects of a global economic stagnation. In the face of the reduction in military budget and popular support, a lacklustre economy, calls for cuts in defence spending to support social services have intensified. One developed nations are fighting an uphill battle to prominent example occurred in the 2015 General commit the necessary forces in the fight against the Election, when the Singapore Democratic Party raised Islamic State. The rise of Low-Intensity Conflicts (LIC) the issue of our allegedly excessive defence spending has forced armed forces around the world to transform and proposed total transparency in defence their doctrines, training and equipment. However, 20 acquisitions. Although public opinion of the military nations run the risk of shifting too far, resulting in has improved with increased public engagements, weaknesses against conventional enemies. This was especially after the SG50 celebrations, it is uncertain if evidenced in the Israeli-Lebanon conflict where there is widespread recognition of Singapore’s Hezbollah forces employed conventional tactics against vulnerability amongst the public.21 The false sense of the Israelis, who were more prepared to fight security, especially among young Singaporeans, is 14 protracted LICs against the likes of Hamas. Calibration detrimental to the nation’s collective commitment to for hybrid warfare requires fine balancing and presents defence. Hence, the challenge to the SAF’s relevance in greater challenges to the military as they face itself presents a threat to the strength of our defence, increasingly limited resources. and must be addressed. The dangers of downsizing military budgets The false sense of security, especially around the world can be seen today. For example, in 2014, defence cuts in the US shrunk the number of among young Singaporeans, is available carriers, which resulted in the US Navy having no aircraft carriers in the Pacific region for four months detrimental to the nation’s collective despite the US’ promise of a pivot to Asia.15 In the commitment to defence. Hence, the annexation of Crimea, the lack of NATO intervention weakened the alliance’s deterrent effect and sowed challenge to the SAF’s relevance in scepticism in small countries such as Poland and the itself presents a threat to the Baltic states on NATO’s ability to ensure security in Europe.16 This was again observed in the Syrian civil strength of our defence, and must be war, whereby the US’ hesitation to commit forces, addressed. despite Bashar al-Assad’s regime purportedly crossing the ‘red line’ by using chemical weapons, allowed the The Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and the SAF humanitarian crisis to worsen.17 The perceived have taken steps to strengthen their public engagement weakness of the US and multilateral alliances could efforts. One example includes the Committee to embolden both state and non-state actors to escalate Strengthen National Service (CSNS) which their actions at no permanent cost. The threat of recommended concrete changes to the NS system such economic sanctions and harsh words are not effective as the SAF Volunteer Corps, enabling women, against belligerent governments and terrorist permanent residents and new citizens to contribute to organisations.18 The world is at a tipping point with the national defence and strengthen support for NS. Other incumbent superpowers reluctantly ceding their place public engagement efforts include the Community in the global order to new players seeking to establish Outreach Programmes, and the SAF-School Partnership themselves, be it through a global caliphate or Programme, which sought to engage young generations dominance over the East and South China Seas. Instead of Singaporeans and engender their commitment to of looking inwards amidst the global economic defence at an impressionable age. In other fronts, we slowdown, there is an even greater need for all nations have also opened more communication channels with to work in concert to counter-balance these forces. the public through social media which allowed us to 3

The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape

MINDEF

Commanding Officer (CO) of 3rd Battalion, Singapore Guards, (3rd Gds) Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) Lew Tze Soon (third from left) discussing operation plans with Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) counterparts during the command post exercise in Exercise Suman Warrior 2018. showcase our capabilities to a wider audience. In 2014, Easter Bombings. With an increased number of the RSAF45@Heartlands exhibitions even brought our Malaysians and Indonesians travelling to Syria to join ambassadors directly to the heartlands, reaching out to the ISIS and polls showing a large percentage of people who would otherwise be unexposed to the SAF, sympathisers in our neighbouring countries, the threat of returnees or self-radicalised extremists conducting its capabilities and the real operations it conducts. terrorist activities in the region has raised grave Moving forward, we must maintain these efforts concerns.23 The SAF must be prepared, and must invest and continually explore new ways to connect with the in key capabilities such as intelligence, information and public and explain to them what value the SAF brings to cyber operations to combat these threats. The SAF has Singapore in terms of policy space and deterrence. In also increased its presence for the protection of key addition, we must also actively enhance our value in installations and participated in multinational coalition peace, by leaning forward with resources in times of efforts against the ISIS, targeting the roots of the need. These could range from the organising of major terrorist network. Despite the increased focus on this national events such as the state funeral of the late Mr clear and present danger, we must also not let our Lee Kuan Yew, to assistance in national crises such as guard down when it comes to conventional threats, as it the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) takes significant time, effort and manpower to build up epidemic or the haze outbreak.22 By increasing public these capabilities. understanding of the SAF and making meaningful contributions to Singapore in peacetime, we will be able The declining influence of the US to enhance public support for defence and alleviate the and the NATO countries will leave pressures on our defence budget. gaps in the security landscape to With a shrinking force against the backdrop of strategic human resource constraints, the SAF has to be exploited by other state and carefully consider its next transformation. The prevailing threat in our region today is terrorism, as evidenced by non-state actors, increasing increasing terrorist activities in the region, such as the volatility in various hotspots 2016 Jakarta Attacks, where terrorists detonated multiple bombs in Jakarta and the more recent Sri Lanka around the world.

The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape

MINDEF On 29th May 2019, Director of Joint Operations, Brigadier-General (BG) David Neo and the Deputy Commissioner of Police (Operations), Tan Chye Hee, co-signed the Joint Operations Plan to spearhead the SAF-SPF joint operational responses to public order incidents in Singapore

A Whole-of-Government (WoG) approach is INCREASING IMPORTANCE OF REGIONAL critical as Singapore tackles the threat of terrorism. The INSTITUTIONS Home Team, including the Singapore Police Force (SPF), Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) and As developed nations cut back on their spending Internal Security Department (ISD), and the SAF must and military build-up, multilateral alliances will become work hand in hand to address our homeland security increasingly important in maintaining security and order concerns. The SAF, as it transforms itself for hybrid in the region. For Singapore, a strong Association of warfare, must be better equipped and prepared to Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) community is key in ensuring peace in the region even as the US and China expand its role in the support of counter-terrorism continue to exert their influences. ASEAN plays an active operations, with tighter- co ordination with the Home role as a collective hedge against the US, China and Team. In addition, the SAF must also play its part in Japan in the balance of power. However, it still has building social resilience, especially against potential some ways to go before it could fulfil its full potential. extremists seeking to exploit racial and religious fault Today, there is no military pact amongst the ASEAN lines. This must be in line with the larger national effort nations and the - non interference nature of the ASEAN to foster solidarity among Singaporeans. In the event of set-up means that this is unlikely in the near future.24 a terrorist attack, Singapore must be able to bounce The unity of ASEAN nations has also been questioned by back and preserve its racial and religious harmony. With external parties—this is illustrated in the lack of the collapse of regimes in the Middle East and North consensus on a statement regarding the South China Africa and increasing tension between the Shiite and Sea during the 2015 ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting- Sunni factions, terrorist organisations have been Plus.25 The absence of a united front has allowed China allowed to fester and grow their global networks to continue to assert itself in the South China Sea with through social media. Coupled with increasing religiosity impunity, and has also driven the Philippines to seek the in our region, close co-ordination among the national protection of the US by offering their military the use of agencies is more important than ever. eight bases.26 Fragmentation in ASEAN along China-US

5 The Economic Impact On The Global Security Landscape lines exposes weaknesses in the association and cast this stagnation on military budgets will vary among doubt on the region’s ability to maintain peace and nations with different sets of priorities and agendas. For security. ASEAN has played an active role in managing Singapore and other small states in the region, China’s regional security, having led many multilateral continued growth in defence spending despite its institutions such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN economic slowdown remain a key concern. Its lack of Plus Three and the East Asian Summit, but it must transparency on its intentions in the South China Sea continue to reform itself through greater integration as continues to frustrate and a Code of Conduct between it faces strategic security challenges from the rise of ASEAN and China should be developed quickly to China and the proliferation of terrorism.27 prevent miscalculated escalations. For the US, it is at a crossroads where it has to decide between global Another important multilateral institution of Singapore is the Five Power Defence Arrangement influence and domestic populism. With its Presidential (FPDA). Although the FPDA was initially conceived as a Election due in 2020 and heavier leanings to the far transitional agreement in 1971 to provide defence for right and left, it is uncertain whether the US will turn Malaysia and Singapore which were relatively new inwards in its foreign policy in a return to isolationism. states at the time, the FPDA remains relevant today in The declining influence of the US and the NATO tackling non-traditional threats and maintaining regional countries will leave gaps in the security landscape to be stability.28 This is especially so given the South China Sea exploited by other state and non-state actors, increasing tensions. However, even as we seek to tighten co- volatility in various hotspots around the world. operation across the region, through sharing of Singapore’s response must be to strengthen the intelligence on trans-boundary terrorism and increasing SAF through public engagements to gain public support co-ordination for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster and capability transformation to meet the demands of Relief (HADR), ASEAN countries are still prone to playing hybrid warfare. The SAF must also lean forward to the sovereignty card in a show of nationalistic enhance its value in peace and also in supporting the sentiment. This was illustrated in Indonesia’s intent to Home Team for counter-terrorism operations. take over control of the airspace above the Riau Islands from Singapore and the border disputes between Externally, Singapore should continue to press for Cambodia and Vietnam.29 Historical examples include ASEAN unity and seek deeper co-operation on trans- Malaysia withdrawing from a FPDA exercise in 1998 at a boundary issues such as terrorism and HADR. Singapore, time when Malaysia-Singapore relations were affected as the current co-ordinator of ties between ASEAN and by a number of issues.30 With such a diverse range of China, must also push for a Code of Conduct to maintain cultures, histories, races and religions in ASEAN, efforts peace and security in the region, while ensuring good to maintain cordial relationships continue to be relationships between China and the other ASEAN challenging. Nevertheless, individual small states have nations.32 Lastly, Singapore should leverage on its good little power or influence in the larger global order, and relationships with the various claimant countries in the solidarity through ASEAN is the only way for Singapore South China Sea to ensure that China’s rise remains and its neighbours to mitigate geopolitical power plays. peaceful and unnecessary provocations by all claimants As such, Singapore must continue to support ASEAN are prevented. Even as the world faces more complex unity in its various roles in the association. security challenges in the coming years, Singapore will be well-poised to meet these challenges if it can CONCLUSION strengthen its security agencies and national unity while Looking ahead, economic growth is forecasted to supporting multilateral institutions and their stabilising remain low, as experts dubbed the lack of cyclical effect against belligerent states and the growing recovery ‘the new normal’.31 However, the impact of terrorist threats.

ENDNOTES 1. Dinah Walker, “Trends in U.S. Military Spending”, Council on Foreign Relations, 15 July 2014, http:// www.cfr.org/defense-budget/trends-us-military-spending/p28855. Caroline Wyatt, “Has Britain’s Defence Budget Been Cut Too Much?”, BBC News, 24 February 2014, http:// www.bbc.com/news/uk-26271018. 2. David Chinn, “Preserving Combat Power When Defense Budgets Are Falling”, McKinsey & Company, April 2013, http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/preserving-combat-power-when- defense-budgets-are-falling.

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3. Matthew Yglesias, “Defense Spendings Cuts Are More Popular Than “Entitlement” Cuts, Slate, 27 November 2012, http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/27/ public_opinion_on_entitlements_people_would_rather_cut_defense.html. Chris Conover, “Bullets vs. Band-aids: Is Health Spending Crowding Out Defense?”, Forbes, 12 February 2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisconover/2013/02/12/bullets-vs-band-aids-is-health-spending-crowding- out-defense/#6cb4406f183c. 4. Jeremy Shapiro and Anna Newby, “Not Ready for a Post-American World: European Views on NATO”, Brook- ings, 16 June 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/06/16-european-views- nato-shapiro-newby. 5. Andrew Chuter, “NATO Defense Spending Continues to Decline”, Defense News, 23 June 2015, http:// www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2015/06/23/nato-reports-alliance-members- defense-spending-decline/29153965/. 6. Brooke Rogers, “The Economic Downturn: a Boon for Home-grown Terrorists?”, NATO Review, 12 July 2012, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2012/Threats-Within/homegrown-terrorism-socio-economics/EN/ index.htm. 7. Bilal Habib, Ambar Narayan et al, “The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution: In- sights from Simulations in Selected Countries”, Vox, 19 April 2010, http://www.voxeu.org/article/impact- financial-crisis-poverty-and-income-distributions. 8. Jessica Stern and J.M. Berger, “ISIS and the Foreign-Fighter Phenomenon”, The Atlantic, 8 March 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/03/isis-and-the-foreign-fighter-problem/387166/. 9. Andrew Cressie, David Milo et al, “Asia-Pacific Defense Outlook 2015– Tension, Collaboration, Convergence”, Deloitte, 10 March 2015, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/nz/Documents/public-sector/en- gv-asia-pacific-defense-outlook-2015-100315.pdf. 10. Richard Bitzinger, “China’s Double-digit Defense Growth: What It Means for a Peaceful Rise”, Foreign Affairs, 19 March 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2015-03-19/chinas-double-digit-defense- growth. 11. Hugh White, “Will America Defend Taiwan?”, The Interpreter, 5 May 2015, http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/ post/2015/05/05/Will-America-defend-Taiwan.aspx. Harry Kazianis, “If China and Japan Went to War, What Would America Do?”, The National Interest, 21 June 2014, http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/if-china-japan-went-war-what-would-america-do- 10722. 12. Kalyeena Makortoff, “Russia Defense Spending Hits 10-year High”, CNBC, 16 December 2015, http:// www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/russia-defense-spending-hits-10-year-high.html. Tom Kington, “Russian Aggression Drives Increase in European Defense Spending”, Defense News, 19 Febru- ary 2016, http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/europe/2016/02/18/russian- aggression-drives-increase-in-european-defense-spending/80580956/. 13. R. Jeffrey Smith, “U.S. Military Admits Major Mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan”, The Atlantic, 11 June 2012, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/us-military-admits-major-mistakes-in-iraq-and- afghanistan/258339/. 14. Greg Jaffe, “2006 Israel-Lebanon War Looms Large in Pentagon Debate on Future”, The Washington Post, 6 April 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/05/AR2009040502235.html. 15. Kristina Wong, “Obama’s Pivot to Asia will Lack Firepower”, The Hill, 30 April 2014, http://thehill.com/policy/ defense/204767-obamas-pivot-to-asia-will-lack-firepower-with-carrier-shortage. 16. Kurt Volker, “Where’s NATO’s Strong Response to Russia’s Invasion of Crimea? Why Action – Not Activity – is the Only Way to Put the Brakes on Moscow”, Foreign Policy, 18 March 2014, http:// foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/18/wheres-natos-strong-response-to-russias-invasion-of-crimea/. 17. http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/28/opinion/president-obamas-hypocrisy-on-syria.html

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18. Dmitri Trenin, “How Effective are Economic Sanctions?”, World Economic Forum, 26 February 2015, http:// www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/02/how-effective-are-economic-sanctions. 19. “SDP Committed to Singapore’s Defence: Paul Tambyah”, Channel Newsasia, 7 September 2015, http:// www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/sdp-committed-to/2107320.html. 20. “Satisfaction with Government since GE 2011 at High Level, Survey Shows”, Channel Newsasia, 22 Aug 2015, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/satisfaction-with/2050828.html. 21. Jermyn Chow, “No Job Too Big for Ah Boys”, The Straits Times, 16 May 2015, http://www.straitstimes.com/ opinion/no-job-too-big-for-ah-boys. 22. Shannon Teoh, “Rising Concern over Trend of Malaysian ISIS Suicide Bombers”, The Straits Times, 12 January 2016, http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/rising-concern-over-trend-of-malaysian-isis-suicide- bombers. Kanupriya Kapoor, “Indonesia Jails Seven for Supporting Islamic State”, Channel Newsasia, 9 February 2016, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/indonesia-jails-seven-for/2500678.html. 23. Brian Wivell, “The Case for ASEAN Military Integration”, International Policy Digest, 17 October 2015, http:// intpolicydigest.org/2015/10/17/the-case-for-asean-military-integration/. 24. Morgan Potts, “ASEAN is Not a Security Community (Yet)”, The Diplomat, 10 March 2015, http:// thediplomat.com/2015/03/asean-is-not-a-security-community-yet/. Prashanth Parameswaran, “China Blocked ASEAN Defense Meeting Pact Amid South China Sea Fears”, The Diplomat, 4 November 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/china-blocked-asia-defense-meeting-pact- amid-south-china-sea-fears-us-official/. 25. Dan De Luce, “China Fears Bring the U.S. Military Back to the Philippines”, Foreign Policy, 12 January 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/12/china-fears-bring-the-u-s-military-back-to-the-philippines/. 26. Rizal Sukma, “ASEAN and Regional Security in East Asia”, Panorama, 7 June 2010, http://www.kas.de/ upload/dokumente/2010/06/PolDi-Asien_Panorama_02-2010/Panorama_2- 2010_SecurityPolitics_Sukma.pdf. 27. Jermyn Chow, “Five Power Defence Arrangements Remain Relevant Today, Say Defence Chiefs”, The Straits Times, 10 November 2013, http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/five-power-defence-arrangements- remain-relevant-today-say-defence-chiefs. 28. “When We’re Ready, We’ll Take Over Airspace Above Riau Islands: Indonesian Transport Minister”, Channel Newsasia, 9 September 2015, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/indonesia-to-take- over/2113898.html. Roseanne Gerin, “Cambodia Asserts Sovereignty Over Disputed Border Area with Vietnam”, Radio Free Asia, 5 November 2015, http://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/cambodia-asserts-soverignty-over-disputed- border-area-with-vietnam-11042015150527.html. 29. Khoo How San, “The Five Power Defence Arrangements: If It Ain’t Broke…”, Pointer Vol.26, No. 4, October – December 2000, http://www.mindef.gov.sg/safti/pointer/back/journals/2000/Vol26_4/7.htm. 30. Mohamed El-Erian, “Is Stagnation the ‘New Normal’ for the World Economy?”, The Guardian, 3 February 2016, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/03/is-stagnation-the-new-normal-for-the-world- economy. 31. Goh Sui Noi, “’High Expectations’ of Singapore as Dialogue Coordinator”, The Straits Times, 4 August 2015, http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/high-expectations-of-spore-as-dialogue-coordinator.

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ME4 Gerald Goh is an Air Force Engineer by vocation and is currently serving as a Staff Officer in Aerosystems Centre, Air Engineering and Logistics Department. A recipient of the SAF Merit Scholarship in 2009, he graduated from Imperial College London with a Masters of Engineering (Aeronautical Engineering).