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Analysis of Promotion Rates to Lieutenant Colonel and Selection for Command for Usmc Aviation Supply and Maintenance Officers

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Analysis of Promotion Rates to Lieutenant Colonel and Selection for Command for Usmc Aviation Supply and Maintenance Officers NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS ANALYSIS OF PROMOTION RATES TO LIEUTENANT COLONEL AND SELECTION FOR COMMAND FOR USMC AVIATION SUPPLY AND MAINTENANCE OFFICERS by Michael D. Gonzalez December 2011 Thesis Advisor: Chad W. Seagren Second Reader: Ronald D. Fricker, Jr. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2011 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Analysis of Promotion Rates to Lieutenant Colonel and Selection for Command for USMC Aviation Supply and Maintenance Officers 6. AUTHOR(S) Michael D. Gonzalez 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number NPS.2011.0106-IR-EP5-A. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The purpose of this thesis was to identify those statistically significant variables associated with promotion to lieutenant colonel and selection for command of a Marine Aviation Logistics Squadron (MALS) or Center for Naval Aviation Technical Training Marine Unit for Aviation Maintenance Officers (AMOs) and Aviation Supply Officers (AVNSUPOs). A data set was constructed for the 102 in-zone AMOs and AVNSUPOs competing for promotion, consisting of demographic and Fitness Report (FITREP) data for each officer covering Fiscal Years 2004-2012. Utilizing logistic regression, the findings concluded that serving as a MALS Executive Officer (XO), receiving a Meritorious Service Medal, and scoring above the Reviewing Officers’ (RO) average scores improve one’s probability for selection. Serving in combat was not a significant factor for promotion. Because information on command selection was not available from Marine Corps Officer Assignments Plans and Programs, it was not possible to model for command selection. Instead, the following descriptive statistics provide insight on the type of officer selected to command. Forty percent have served as Operations Officers. Forty- three percent served as XOs. Fifty-one percent of the officers scored above their ROs’ average markings. Only 37% have at least one combat FITREP as a major. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF USMC, officer, promotions, lieutenant colonel, MOS 6602, MOS 6002, AVNSUPO, AMO, Command PAGES Screening Program, logistic regression 149 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited ANALYSIS OF PROMOTION RATES TO LIEUTENANT COLONEL AND SELECTION FOR COMMAND FOR USMC AVIATION SUPPLY AND MAINTENANCE OFFICERS Michael D. Gonzalez Lieutenant Colonel, United States Marine Corps B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1995 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2011 Author: Michael D. Gonzalez Approved by: Chad W. Seagren Thesis Advisor Ronald D. Fricker, Jr. Second Reader Robert F. Dell Chair, Department of Operations Research iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to identify those statistically significant variables associated with promotion to lieutenant colonel and selection for command of a Marine Aviation Logistics Squadron (MALS) or Center for Naval Aviation Technical Training Marine Unit for Aviation Maintenance Officers (AMOs) and Aviation Supply Officers (AVNSUPOs). A data set is constructed for the 102 in-zone AMOs and AVNSUPOs competing for promotion, consisting of demographic and Fitness Report (FITREP) data for each officer covering Fiscal Years 2004-2012. Utilizing logistic regression, the findings conclude that serving as a MALS Executive Officer (XO), receiving a Meritorious Service Medal, and scoring above the Reviewing Officers’ (RO) average scores improve one’s probability for selection. Serving in combat is not a significant factor for promotion. Because information on command selection is not available from Marine Corps Officer Assignments Plans and Programs Section, it is not possible to model for command selection. Instead, the following descriptive statistics provide insight on the type of officer selected to command. Forty percent served as Operations Officers. Forty- three percent served as XOs. Fifty-one percent of the officers scored above their ROs’ average markings. Only 37% have completed at least one combat FITREP as a major. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. BACKGROUND ..............................................................................................1 B. PURPOSE .........................................................................................................3 C. RESEARCH QUESTIONS .............................................................................3 1. Primary Research Question ................................................................3 2. Secondary Research Question ............................................................3 3. Tertiary Research Question ................................................................4 D. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS ........................................................................4 E. ORGANIZATION OF STUDY ......................................................................5 II. THE MARINE AVIATION LOGISTICS SQUADRON AND CAREER PATH FOR AVIATION SUPPLY AND MAINTENANCE OFFICERS ..............7 A. ORGANIZATION ...........................................................................................7 MALS 9 LOCATION ..................................................................................................................9 TYPE OF AIRCRAFT SUPPORTED .......................................................................9 B. CNATT MARUNIT .........................................................................................9 C. CAREER STRUCTURE FOR AVNSUPO, MOS 6602 .............................11 1. The Basic School (TBS) .....................................................................11 2. MOS School ........................................................................................11 3. Initial Squadron Assignment ............................................................14 4. Career Level School (CLS)/B-Billet Assignment ............................14 5. Second Squadron Assignment ..........................................................15 6. Intermediate Level School (ILS)/B-Billet Assignment ...................16 7. Squadron Department Head .............................................................16 D. CAREER STRUCTURE FOR AMO, MOS 6002 .......................................17 1. TBS ......................................................................................................17 2. MOS School ........................................................................................18 3. Initial Squadron Assignment ............................................................20 4. CLS/B-Billet Assignment...................................................................21 5. Second Squadron Assignment ..........................................................21 6. ILS/B-Billet Assignment ....................................................................22 7. Squadron Department Head .............................................................22 E. ACQUISITION COMMUNITY ...................................................................22 F. COMMAND SCREENING PROGRAM ....................................................23 G. OFFICER ASSIGNMENT ............................................................................26 H. SUMMARY ....................................................................................................27 III. THE PERFORMANCE EVALUATION SYSTEM AND PROMOTION PROCESS ...................................................................................................................29 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................29
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