Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in

An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org

MAAPSS Update 9 February 2021 The Announcement of Deputy Governors in South Sudan

Introduction representation and are seen as a blatant political power-grab by the SPLM-IG. After months of waiting, Salva Kiir appointed six deputy governors on 30 December 2020, followed by a second The appointment of the Angelo Taban decree of three deputy governors on 23 Baijo, a Balanda Fertit, shocked non- January and the last on 29 January 2021. Balanda people in Wau as a violation of This comes six months after the parties to the common rule of promoting equal ethnic the revitalized peace agreement representation by the governing party. In determined in August 2020 that the SPLM, June 2020, SPLM-IO nominated Sarah SPLM-IO and OPP would nominate deputy Cleto, also a Balanda Fertit as governor, governors for three states each, while the meaning that the governor and deputy both SSOA would nominate one. However, in hail from Wau county and Balanda the end the SSOA made no selection and families. The other Fertit groups of Raja, the position in was filled with an the Luwo of Jur River state and the Dinka SPLM appointee. Following the Small near the border, Arms Survey's report on the feel marginalized and betrayed by the announcement of the state governors in decision. July 2020, this new analysis provides

background on the newly appointed deputy Angelo Taban is a former governor of Wau governors.. state and a political ally of SPLM-IG SPLM–In Government appointments strongman Rizik Zacharia Hassan. His political career began as Commissioner of Wau in 2010, serving in the state cabinet of The SPLM-IG appointed four deputy Rizik. In Taban, Salva Kiir has appointed a governors representing party cadres from crafted party cadre to reorganize the relevant state patronage networks or political movement in WBeG, confident that influential local elites. Both Antipas Nyok the military apparatus in the state is under Kucha (Jonglei) and Dr. Kennedy Ganiko control; SSPDF Division 5 is firmly under (Western ) are young and the authority of Abraham Gum Makuac, a malleable, while Angelo Taban Baijo Dinka Rek military commander from (Western Bahr el Ghazal) is a crafted and Gogrial and a loyal Salva Kiir supporter. skilled politician. The fourth, James Tor Monybuny (Upper Nile), is a former local Angelo Taban’s main role for the SPLM-IG SPLM party leader. The role of the new will be twofold. Apart from reorganizing the deputies will be the state-level political movement and overseeing the reorganization of the SPLM party down to appointment of SPLM-IG county payam and boma levels in preparation for commissioners to Wau and Jur River, his possible elections in 2023. However, in core task will be to control land politics – both Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western the main driver of the economy in Wau. Equatoria, the appointments have infuriated segments of the general population as they break from the unwritten ‘code of honor’ of equal ethnic

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Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan

An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org

governor to SPLA-IO military strongman Alfred Futiyo Karaba. This selection mirrors the situation in Western Bahr el Ghazal – Jonglei two people of the same ethnic group appointed the state’s top positions. The SPLM-IG nominated Antipas Nyok Following the appointment of Futiyo, a Kucha, a Dinka Bor politician from Yambio county native, as governor Makuach payam of Bor county. His (Futiyo’s father is Balanda from Western appointment was the result of solid support Bahr el Ghazal, his mother a Zande from from Dinka Bor elites, led by Senior Nadiangere), people expected a deputy Presidential Advisor and former Minister of from the western, non-Zande side of the Defense Kuol Manyang and Minister of state. Africano Mande, the former governor Information Michael Makuei Lueth. As of Maridi state, was thought to be the such, Antipas Nyok’s strong political frontrunner, and he travelled to Yambio for backing stands in stark contrast to the background talks with Jemma Nunu young and inexperienced Jonglei Governor Kumba. But he settled for the position of Denay Jock Chagor. This will be an Deputy Commissioner General of the intriguing dynamic to watch in 2021. National Revenue Authority in September 2020. After a long and gruelling nominating process to fill the governor’s seat in Kennedy Ganiko, a medical doctor, Jonglei, the SSOA’s settled on the entered politics in 2015 with an politically weak Denay Jock Chagor. unsuccessful run for the chairmanship of Chagor, a Lou Nuer from Dengjok payam the National Youth Union against Albino in Akobo East, has no political constituency Bol Dhieu, the current Minister of Youth in Jonglei, and is generally thought of as a and Sports. Jemma Nunu Kumba, the government sell-out among the Lou Nuer. current Minister of Parliamentary Affairs As predicted earlier, Chagor will have to and Acting Secretary General of SPLM, navigate a powerful Bor Dinka lobby supported Ganiko at this early stage of his entrenched at the highest levels of the political career and took him to the SPLM South Sudan Peoples Defense Forces National Secretariat following his loss at (SSPDF) while having no military forces of the polls. He became SPLM Deputy Chair his own. for Political Affairs and Mobilization and later followed Kumba to the Ministry of Since 2005, Antipas Nyok has served the Parliamentary Affairs in March 2020. SPLM in various capacities, first as the SPLM State Secretary of , Salva Kiir chose Ganiko following followed by six years as SPLM Deputy consultations with Avungara Azande elites Secretary for Political Affairs, Mobilisation from Tombura county including Kumba, the and Moral Orientation until 2014. His leader of the Avungara-clique, and Patrick appointment as deputy governor is a clear Raphael Zamoi, a former governor of the attempt by the Dinka Bor and party elites to state. They argued to Kiir that the sitting strengthen the SPLM in the state and keep governor, Futiyo, is foremost a Balanda (by a watchful eye on the young and paternal lineage), and as such, the deputy unpredictable Denay Jock Chagor. position should go to a Zande. Their insistence on Ganiko was likely also driven by a perceived threat posed by the popular and former governor of the state Bangasi ; while also a Zande, Salva Kiir appointed the relatively unknown Dr. Kennedy Ganiko to be the deputy Bakosoro is not from the elite Avungara clan.

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Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan

An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org

from the Ngok Lual Yak subsection of the Bakosoro is currently the SSOA-nominated Padang Dinka. He owes his loyalties to his Minister of Public Services. For the first kinsman from Baliet County, Chol Thon time since 2015, Bakosoro returned to Balok, the controversial former acting- Yambio in December 2020 – just prior to governor of Eastern Nile responsible for Ganiko’s appointment as deputy governor the wholesale displacement of the Shilluk – and was warmly greeted by enthusiastic from the east bank of the White Nile, and supporters. His visit included a consultation now the deputy chief of defence forces for with Futiyo, an ally who Bakosoro tapped the SSPDF. Monybuny became governor years earlier to organise the Arrow Boys of Central Upper Nile after Kiir’s 32-states militia. Kumba and Zamoi appear to envy declaration, as a way to take the heat off Bakosoro’s popularity and may fear Futiyo Chol Thon: he continued, however, with is acting to pave the way for Bakosoro’s Chol Thon’s agenda, using administrative political return to Western Equatoria. Of power to consecrate the Padang power further note, and in a move to bolster grab in Upper Nile Avungara Azande influence, Kumba and Zamoi encouraged fellow Avungara clan SPLA – In Opposition Appointments member James Nando Mark – a former SPLA-IO Division commander and As seen with the selection of ministers and subordinate to Governor Futiyo – to defect governors, Riek Machar decided to to the government in March 2020. abandon the military organs of the movement, and appointed trusted With the help Nando and his newly politicians close to him and his family. recruited militia, and the chance for While this further alienates his military Avungara elites to nominate the commanders, it also solidifies his chances commissioners of Tombura and Ezo of revenue extraction from the positions counties, the Avungara will carve out a that SPLA-IO is allowed to control. fiefdom in Western Equatoria. There is a high chance that conflict in the region could Replicating the appointment of Sarah Cleto become internationalized as Nando has as governor of Western Bahr el Ghazal, already carried out mercenary attacks on Riek appointed Mary Nadio as deputy towns in the Central African Republic. governor in . While the international community has praised Riek's Upper Nile appointment of women leaders, there are noteworthy similarities in the two The South Sudan Opposition Alliance was selections. Both Cleto and Nadio are close initially tapped to nominate Upper Nile’s friends of Angelina Teny, they lack a strong deputy governor, but on 29 January 2021 political constituency, and are returning the SPLM-IG made a unilateral decision to from exile. Elsewhere, in state, the go with its own pick, James Tor Monybuny. appointment of Poth Madit is another The SPLM-IG’s decision was met with little elevation of a young and malleable objection by the SSOA, highlighting the politician, without the risk of defection. Tor opposition alliance party’s weakness within Tungwar was appointed deputy governor the R-ARCSS framework. of state.

James Tor Monybuny’s appointment brings Eastern Equatoria a familiar face back to Upper Nile. Previously serving as the governor of Riek Machar – or, some say, Angelina in 2017–19, Teny – nominated Mary Nadio Alphonse, a Monybuny is a former Presbyterian pastor Didinga politician from . As we

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Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan

An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org

had seen with the selection of the of Eastern Equatorians in the government governors, SPLA-IO appointed a female as – the SSPDF Chief of Staff is ‘JJ’ Okot and well, to keep the 35% quota enshrined in the Minister for National Security is Obuto the constitution. Mamur Mete –– and they control their home state strictly. Mary Nadio will have a Mary Nadio served as a policewoman ceremonial role among these powerful before she joined the SPLM in the early figures. 90s. She rose in prominence and by the time of the Convention in 1994 Lakes she established herself in the party leadership. However, after fighting Ustaz Poth Madit Dut is in the weakest resumed she left to the UK and lived in position for any incoming deputy governor. exile until late 2020. She befriended SPLA-IO lacks any organized force or Angelina Teny, wife of Riek Machar, and political constituency in Lakes, especially she was among the first Eastern after the passing of Telar Ring in Equatorians to join the IO. She also December 2020. Poth Madit was born in financially supported the movement. Amongping, Rumbek Centre county to a Dinka Agaar family in 1985. He graduated Reportedly, Riek Machar consulted with from the Catholic University of and several high-ranking IO politicians from later worked as a teacher, with NGOs, and Eastern Equatoria in effort to convince one later as the deputy coordinator at the of them to accept the deputy position, but Lakes State Coordination Office in Juba understandably they had no appetite to until 2014, when he opportunistically joined serve under the influential and hardnosed SPLA-IO. governor . One of them, Oyet Nathanial, was the top choice Lakes state is in the firm hands of governor for Machar. Oyet is an Acholi from Makur Kulang, an ally of Rin Tueny Mabor, and served as the opposition governor of the influential Director of Military . Since the signing of the R- Intelligence, with a direct line to the ARCSS he is co-chair of the National president. Makur Kulang is also leaning on Constitutional Amendment Committee the influence of Paul Mayom Akec, Minister (NCAC) in Juba and reportedly has eyes for Interior. Ustaz Poth has no place in this for a high position in the reconstituted center of power, so his role in Lakes will be national assembly, and to become a utterly ceremonial. leading IO lawmaker. Unity Mary Nadio finds herself in an uneasy situation. She will lack necessary The SPLA-IO selection in Unity is of more resources and have to deal with a consequence than its other selections; the aggressive and very experienced governor. appointment of Tor Tungwar as deputy The SPLA-IO forces of Eastern Equatoria, governor cements Nguen Monytuil’s once a bastion of the rebellion, are in control of Unity state. Though Tungwar is disarray and show signs of cracks amid an SPLA-IO appointment, the Tungwar internal tensions. Division commanders are family, like the Monytuils, straddle the competing with each other for scarce government-opposition divide. Elite politics resources in training sites and accuse one in Unity state has long been focused on a another of betrayal. Probably both the few central families; their particular political SPLM and Thomas Cirillo will attempt to affiliation at a given moment of time is lure them to their cause one by one. rather less of an issue. Meanwhile, both the national army and

national security services are in the hands

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Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan

An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org

For example, the Tungwars are Leek Nuer Sudan’s National Alliance of Political from the Cieng Chol section, Rubkona Parties, led by Kornelio Kon Ngu, agreed county. Tor Tungwar's father, Tungwar on a list of nominees with several other Kueingong Ret, was an important members of the OPP alliance. But OPP traditional chief, and remained the Leek Minister for Humanitarian Affairs Peter Nuer Paramount Chief until August 2020. Mayen Wën Majongdit submitted his own His sons and daughters occupy all the elite separate list to the President. The two ranks of Unity state: some of his brothers factions of OPP finally came to a work for NGOs in Bentiu, while one of his compromise agreement towards the end of brothers, Lam Tungwar, is a close ally of January. The appointee in , Ayen Nguen Monytuil and has taken many Mayor is from Peter Mayen’s party, while positions in the state administration. His the other two candidates represent other sister is even closer to Nguen Monytuil–– parties from the alliance. she is married to him. Thus, though Tor Tungwar has been the SPLA-IO Military Northern Bahr el Ghazal Governor of Unity state since 2015, his appointment is a consolidation of the The appointment of Tong Lual Ayat to centrality of the Tungwar and Monytuil deputy governor did not come as a families at the heart of Unity state politics. surprise as virtually he is the only viable politician of OPP in the state. Holder of a The ground-level SPLA-IO will be less PhD in business, he was a local enthusiastic about Tungwar’s appointment: government official during Paul Malong’s he was widely blamed for the defeat of the tenure. He fell out with Malong, and SPLA-IO in Unity in 2015–18 and is founded the United Democratic Party in distrusted by the Gojam militias in the 2009, and later joined the OPP. south of the state. As such, Tungwar’s appointment will be seen as more evidence Tong Lual Ayat’s appointment fits into the that Riek Machar has abandoned the recent pattern of Northern Bahr el Ghazal concerns of SPLA-IO in favour of an politics: the elevation of (former) opposition accommodation with Salva Kiir. Tungwar is politicians who are all linked by their enmity a Machar loyalist—who joined SPLM-Nasir to Paul Malong. Second Vice President during the second civil war—and his Hussein Abdel Bagi Akol Agany, the leader appointment must also be understood as of the SSOA-member South Sudan the tightening of the circle around the Patriotic Front got his appointment due to beleaguered vice-president to a group of his enmity to Paul Malong and his cordial family members and friends who are eager relationship with Sudanese military elites. to work with Kiir’s regime. Governor Tong Aken Ngor’s loyalties lie with the most important SSPDF military Other Political Parties appointments commander from the state, Dau Aturjong, currently the commander of SSPDF According to the agreement, the Other Division 1 in Renk. Their enmity to Malong Political Parties (OPP) were granted the connects the two strongmen of Northern opportunity to nominate deputy governors Bahr el Ghazal. Tong Aken followed for , Warrap and Northern Aturjong to the SPLA-IO [RM] rebellion in Bahr el Ghazal. However, various factions 2014, until the removal of Malong, when of the fragile OPP alliance – consisting of they all returned to SPLM-IG. Tong Aken several briefcase political parties with lobbied for the appointment of Tong Lual minimal support from constituencies in the Ayat as they represent different sections of country – could not initially agree on the the Malual Dinka (the governor is from nominating process. One faction, South Aweil Central, his deputy is from Aweil

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Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan

An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org

West). The new deputy governor has a Acronyms and Abbreviations: decent chance to establish a popular ARCSS Agreement on the Resolution of political constituency in Aweil West in the the Conflict in South Sudan years to come. NCAC National Constitutional Amendment Warrap Committee NUDF National United Democratic Front Ayen Mayor Makuei is the only governor or OPP Other Opposition Parties Alliance deputy governor who was not born in the SPLA Sudanese People’s Liberation Army state they are representing. She is a Dinka SPLA-IO Sudanese People’s Liberation Army - Atout politician from Lakes state, but in Opposition married to Joseph Lual Acuil, the Dinka SPLM Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement Rek former Minister of Humanitarian Affairs SPLM-IG Sudanese People’s Liberation Army – (2011-2013). He remained an influential in Government politician in Juba, as he led the Media SPLM/A-IO [RM] Sudanese People’s Authority in the early years of the civil war. Liberation Movement/Army – in Opposition Most observers assume that Ayen Mayor [Riek Machar] will not be overtly critical of the government SSPDF South Sudan People’s Defense Force in the home state of the president. She is a SSOA South Sudan Opposition Alliance close associate of OPP minister Peter WBeG Western Bahr el Ghazal Mayen, as both of them belong to the People's Liberal Party. Disclaimer: Information provided in this MAAPSS Update is Bona Panek, the governor of Warrap, is an sourced from field research conducted by experienced and well-connected politician Small Arms Survey and HSBA experts, with a background and alliances in military including interviews with officials from the intelligence. As an inexperienced politician SPLM, SSPDF, SPLA-IO, local and state who only has connections to Warrap leaders, and other prominent officials both in through her husband, Ayan Mayor starts and outside of South Sudan. Where from an incredibly weak position. appropriate, in-text links are provided to access secondary source material and actors’ profiles Central Equatoria on the MAAPSS website.

Sarah Neni Ridento is the deputy chairman of the National United Democratic Front (NUDF), and a member of the OPP coalition. The NUDF was a signatory of the ARCSS agreement and delegated four members, including Sarah Ridento, to the Transitional National Legislative Assembly in 2016. As a Member of Parliament, she built up political connections with both opposition and government actors. As a sign of her influence, she was appointed to be the finance secretary of the powerful National Pre-Transitional Council by Tut Kew Gatluak. The OPP delegate in the council was Peter Mayen.

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