Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org MAAPSS Update 9 February 2021 The Announcement of Deputy Governors in South Sudan Introduction representation and are seen as a blatant political power-grab by the SPLM-IG. After months of waiting, Salva Kiir Western Bahr el Ghazal appointed six deputy governors on 30 December 2020, followed by a second The appointment of the Angelo Taban decree of three deputy governors on 23 Baijo, a Balanda Fertit, shocked non- January and the last on 29 January 2021. Balanda people in Wau as a violation of This comes six months after the parties to the common rule of promoting equal ethnic the revitalized peace agreement representation by the governing party. In determined in August 2020 that the SPLM, June 2020, SPLM-IO nominated Sarah SPLM-IO and OPP would nominate deputy Cleto, also a Balanda Fertit as governor, governors for three states each, while the meaning that the governor and deputy both SSOA would nominate one. However, in hail from Wau county and Balanda the end the SSOA made no selection and families. The other Fertit groups of Raja, the position in Upper Nile was filled with an the Luwo of Jur River state and the Dinka SPLM appointee. Following the Small near the Northern Bahr el Ghazal border, Arms Survey's report on the feel marginalized and betrayed by the announcement of the state governors in decision. July 2020, this new analysis provides background on the newly appointed deputy Angelo Taban is a former governor of Wau governors.. state and a political ally of SPLM-IG SPLM–In Government appointments strongman Rizik Zacharia Hassan. His political career began as Commissioner of Wau in 2010, serving in the state cabinet of The SPLM-IG appointed four deputy Rizik. In Taban, Salva Kiir has appointed a governors representing party cadres from crafted party cadre to reorganize the relevant state patronage networks or political movement in WBeG, confident that influential local elites. Both Antipas Nyok the military apparatus in the state is under Kucha (Jonglei) and Dr. Kennedy Ganiko control; SSPDF Division 5 is firmly under (Western Equatoria) are young and the authority of Abraham Gum Makuac, a malleable, while Angelo Taban Baijo Dinka Rek military commander from (Western Bahr el Ghazal) is a crafted and Gogrial and a loyal Salva Kiir supporter. skilled politician. The fourth, James Tor Monybuny (Upper Nile), is a former local Angelo Taban’s main role for the SPLM-IG SPLM party leader. The role of the new will be twofold. Apart from reorganizing the deputies will be the state-level political movement and overseeing the reorganization of the SPLM party down to appointment of SPLM-IG county payam and boma levels in preparation for commissioners to Wau and Jur River, his possible elections in 2023. However, in core task will be to control land politics – both Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western the main driver of the economy in Wau. Equatoria, the appointments have infuriated segments of the general population as they break from the unwritten ‘code of honor’ of equal ethnic 1 Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org governor to SPLA-IO military strongman Alfred Futiyo Karaba. This selection mirrors the situation in Western Bahr el Ghazal – Jonglei two people of the same ethnic group appointed the state’s top positions. The SPLM-IG nominated Antipas Nyok Following the appointment of Futiyo, a Kucha, a Dinka Bor politician from Yambio county native, as governor Makuach payam of Bor county. His (Futiyo’s father is Balanda from Western appointment was the result of solid support Bahr el Ghazal, his mother a Zande from from Dinka Bor elites, led by Senior Nadiangere), people expected a deputy Presidential Advisor and former Minister of from the western, non-Zande side of the Defense Kuol Manyang and Minister of state. Africano Mande, the former governor Information Michael Makuei Lueth. As of Maridi state, was thought to be the such, Antipas Nyok’s strong political frontrunner, and he travelled to Yambio for backing stands in stark contrast to the background talks with Jemma Nunu young and inexperienced Jonglei Governor Kumba. But he settled for the position of Denay Jock Chagor. This will be an Deputy Commissioner General of the intriguing dynamic to watch in 2021. National Revenue Authority in September 2020. After a long and gruelling nominating process to fill the governor’s seat in Kennedy Ganiko, a medical doctor, Jonglei, the SSOA’s settled on the entered politics in 2015 with an politically weak Denay Jock Chagor. unsuccessful run for the chairmanship of Chagor, a Lou Nuer from Dengjok payam the National Youth Union against Albino in Akobo East, has no political constituency Bol Dhieu, the current Minister of Youth in Jonglei, and is generally thought of as a and Sports. Jemma Nunu Kumba, the government sell-out among the Lou Nuer. current Minister of Parliamentary Affairs As predicted earlier, Chagor will have to and Acting Secretary General of SPLM, navigate a powerful Bor Dinka lobby supported Ganiko at this early stage of his entrenched at the highest levels of the political career and took him to the SPLM South Sudan Peoples Defense Forces National Secretariat following his loss at (SSPDF) while having no military forces of the polls. He became SPLM Deputy Chair his own. for Political Affairs and Mobilization and later followed Kumba to the Ministry of Since 2005, Antipas Nyok has served the Parliamentary Affairs in March 2020. SPLM in various capacities, first as the SPLM State Secretary of Jonglei state, Salva Kiir chose Ganiko following followed by six years as SPLM Deputy consultations with Avungara Azande elites Secretary for Political Affairs, Mobilisation from Tombura county including Kumba, the and Moral Orientation until 2014. His leader of the Avungara-clique, and Patrick appointment as deputy governor is a clear Raphael Zamoi, a former governor of the attempt by the Dinka Bor and party elites to state. They argued to Kiir that the sitting strengthen the SPLM in the state and keep governor, Futiyo, is foremost a Balanda (by a watchful eye on the young and paternal lineage), and as such, the deputy unpredictable Denay Jock Chagor. position should go to a Zande. Their insistence on Ganiko was likely also driven Western Equatoria by a perceived threat posed by the popular and former governor of the state Bangasi Joseph Bakosoro; while also a Zande, Salva Kiir appointed the relatively unknown Dr. Kennedy Ganiko to be the deputy Bakosoro is not from the elite Avungara clan. 2 Mapping Actors and Alliances Project in South Sudan An initiative of the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) Project Update No. 3 www.maapss.org from the Ngok Lual Yak subsection of the Bakosoro is currently the SSOA-nominated Padang Dinka. He owes his loyalties to his Minister of Public Services. For the first kinsman from Baliet County, Chol Thon time since 2015, Bakosoro returned to Balok, the controversial former acting- Yambio in December 2020 – just prior to governor of Eastern Nile responsible for Ganiko’s appointment as deputy governor the wholesale displacement of the Shilluk – and was warmly greeted by enthusiastic from the east bank of the White Nile, and supporters. His visit included a consultation now the deputy chief of defence forces for with Futiyo, an ally who Bakosoro tapped the SSPDF. Monybuny became governor years earlier to organise the Arrow Boys of Central Upper Nile after Kiir’s 32-states militia. Kumba and Zamoi appear to envy declaration, as a way to take the heat off Bakosoro’s popularity and may fear Futiyo Chol Thon: he continued, however, with is acting to pave the way for Bakosoro’s Chol Thon’s agenda, using administrative political return to Western Equatoria. Of power to consecrate the Padang power further note, and in a move to bolster grab in Upper Nile Avungara Azande influence, Kumba and Zamoi encouraged fellow Avungara clan SPLA – In Opposition Appointments member James Nando Mark – a former SPLA-IO Division commander and As seen with the selection of ministers and subordinate to Governor Futiyo – to defect governors, Riek Machar decided to to the government in March 2020. abandon the military organs of the movement, and appointed trusted With the help Nando and his newly politicians close to him and his family. recruited militia, and the chance for While this further alienates his military Avungara elites to nominate the commanders, it also solidifies his chances commissioners of Tombura and Ezo of revenue extraction from the positions counties, the Avungara will carve out a that SPLA-IO is allowed to control. fiefdom in Western Equatoria. There is a high chance that conflict in the region could Replicating the appointment of Sarah Cleto become internationalized as Nando has as governor of Western Bahr el Ghazal, already carried out mercenary attacks on Riek appointed Mary Nadio as deputy towns in the Central African Republic. governor in Eastern Equatoria. While the international community has praised Riek's Upper Nile appointment of women leaders, there are noteworthy similarities in the two The South Sudan Opposition Alliance was selections. Both Cleto and Nadio are close initially tapped to nominate Upper Nile’s friends of Angelina Teny, they lack a strong deputy governor, but on 29 January 2021 political constituency, and are returning the SPLM-IG made a unilateral decision to from exile. Elsewhere, in Lakes state, the go with its own pick, James Tor Monybuny.