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The Impact of International Trade and Investment on Employment. a Conference on the Department of Labor

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The Impact of International Trade and Investment on Employment. a Conference on the Department of Labor DOCUBIT RESUME ED 164 895 CE 019 141 AUTHO Barnacle William G., Ed.; And Othes TITLE The Iipact of rternaAjtonal Trade and Investment on . Employment. A Conferenee on the Department of Labor research Resultslashington, D.C., December 2-3, 976)1,, IN TUTION Burear-of kpternational Labor Affairs (DOL), Washington, P.c. PUB DIE 78 NOTE 35f7p.; Notational and some tabular information will Ilibt reproduce well due to small print AVAILABLE FROM Su rintendent of :Documents, U.S. Government Printing Of/4ice, Washington, D.C. 20402 "(Stock Number 0 9-000-00335-1, $5.50) ERRS PRICE IMF-._ $0,.83 HC..$19.41 Plus Postage.. DESCRIPTORS Comparative Analysis; *Employment Projections; Eq0loyment Trends; Federal Legislation; Foreign Countries; *ForeignPolib Industry; *International Relations; Investment; L or Eclonomics; *Labor Market; Labor Turnoyer; Models;," Prediction; Productivity; Research Projects; Unemployment N IDENTIFIERS Japan (Tokyo); Trade Adjustment Assistance Program; , '. Trade Expansion Act 1962 ,- ' ., ABSTRACT Taken from a December 1976K conference sponsored by the Bureau bf International Labor Aft/tics, these proceedings.' present research reports on the impact of international.tFade an,d investment on. U.S. employment. The research, produced or in some instandes contracted and monitored by the Department of'Labor, is intended to be of use to economists and policymakers. Generally, introductory rremarks precede each session part and comments and replies follow the paper's pregentation. In the first of seven parts, a sample of industry studies is concerned with the steel and auto industr.es. Proceedings in part 2 involve labor market adjustments and the issue of displacement. Part 3 introduces a paper evaluating direct labor market effects of the old trade adjustment assistance program before. 4ts reformulation under -the 1974 Trade Act. The fourth part examines foreign' investment and employment. In part 5,a paper is presented on international productivity comparisons. Part 6 is concerned with 'the effect of the U.S. tariff policy on trade and employment.' The final part examines issues for research and policy and the value of research on policy making. (CSS) 44g************************************************4444,44*************** * Reproductions supplied by. EDRS are the best thmt can be made *a. * from theoriginalodocument. , * ****************11******************************************************,, IP 1 7: The Impa tof Internati nal Trade and Inv=stment on ployment A Con1/4ference on the Department ofLabor Ffesearch Results -U.S. Department of Labor Ray Marshall, Secretary Bureau of)nternational Labor Affairs (.. .1978 4 1 6 .0 O U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION IL WELFARE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO.' DUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGIN- ATING IT POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRE SENT OFFICIAL NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF O EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY :6- t I , . O Editor:y .William G[ Dewald Co- editors: Harry Gilman ..0 Harry-Gsubert Carry Wirif r HI , Contributors J donald R. Allen Dianne Cummings General Director, Economic Analysis Division, Research Associate.in Economics, the University of Canadian Department-of Industry, Trade, and Wisconsin-Madison. Commerce. Donald J. Daly Clopper Almon Professor of Administrativ'e Studies, York UniN,sity, Professor of Economics, the University of Canada. / Maryland William G.Dewald Edmund Ayoub Professor of Economics, the CAio Slate University,. sistant Research Director, lc United SteelWorkers and editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and men ca, AFL-CIO. Banking, and was formerly. Director of Research, Office of Foreign Economic Research, U.S, Depart: '1:34bert E: Baldwin ment of Labor.- The Frank W. Taussig Research Professor of Eco- nomics, the LrniversitY 61 Wisconsin-Madison. Murray H. Finley. General President!theAmalgamate0 Clothing and'.. Haryey E. Bele Textile Workers, . Chief Economist, U:S. belegation to the Multilateral Trade I- Marvin Fooks Director, Office gfTrade Adjustment Assistance, U.S. -Jack Baranson Department L r. President; Developing World Indust, Technology, 'e Inc. Robert Frank Assistant/Professoc of Economics, Cornell Herbert N. Blackman University. Associate Deputy .Undersecretary for International Affairs, Lt S. Department of"Labor: Richard Freernan Associate Professor of Economics, Harvard Frank Brechling University. Professor of Economics, Northwestern University,and Research Analyst, Public Research Institute, Center forRichard T. Freeman Naval Analyses. Assistant Professor of Economics, Co;nell University.- N. Scott Cardell Regearch AssoCiate, Charles River Associates. Harry Gilman . Associate Professor of Economics, Rochester Christensen University, and International Economist, Office of Professor_of Economics, the University of Wisconsin -Foreign Economic Researdh, U.S. Departmetnt of Madison. Labor. William. R. Cline Donald F. Gordon Senior' Fellow, the Brookings Institution. Professor of Economics and Con-rnerce, Simon Fraser Contributori University, and was the first director of the Depart-- Noboru Kawahabe, ment of Labor researdh program on. international Assistant Professor of Economics. Kobe University of trade and employment. 'Commerce,- Japan. Harry Grubert LaWrence R. Klein Head, Othde of Foreign Economic Research, U.S. Benjarhiri Franklin Professor of Economics, the Uni-' Department of Labor. versity of Pennsylvania: Arnold C. Harberger Helen M. Kramer . Gustavus F. and Ann M. Assistant International Affairs' Represenlative, Swift Distinguished Service Professor of. Economics, International Association of Machinists and Aerospacers the University of Chicago Workers (IAM), was at'the time of the conference Research Economist for the International Union,. ,Joseph A. Hasson United Automobile, Aerospace .arld"Agricultural Pr ()lessor of Econornicso'Howard University. Implement Workers of America-UAW. Joseph E. Hight - T.-0.M Kronsjo. Labor Economist, Office of the Assistant Secretary PrOfessor of Economic,Planning: the University of for Po lib valuation and Research, U.S. Department Birmingham, Great Britain. of Labor. , . .. Anne 0. Krue Thorna's Horst ..,, Professor of Econ ics, the University of Minnesota. DeputyDirector, Dificeof-ii---liernational Tax Affairs, ,._ . peparrrrient of the Taceisury, . I Harold T: Lamar A Professional Staff Member, Subcommittee on Trade, .Hendrik S: Houthakker Ways and Means Committee, U.S. House of Repre- _ Renry Lee Professor of EcOnomics, Harvard University. sentatives. Gary C. HUfbaUer . , Wayne E. Lewis Depu5nAssistant Secretary" for Trade id InveStment, Economist, International Monetary Rind, -Policy, U.$: Department owe Treasury. l'' .( - 6 Michael H. MOskow . ik Louis 5:, ;Jacobson 1, Director of CorPbrate Development and Planning,. Research Arfklyst, Public-Research Institute, Center-far.E.smark, Inc.,and in 1976 was the Undersecretary, U.S. Naval Analydes. Departmerit of Labor. a Elizabeth R. Jager . George R. Neumann Economist., Department of Research, AFL-CIO. Assistant Profebsor, Graduate Sc,hool of Business, the University of Chicago: T Harry G. Johnson Died in Geneva in May, was Charles F. Grey Dis: Donald Rousslang tinguiShed Service professor of Economics, the International Economist, Office of Foreign Economic 'Univertity of Chicago; and .Professor of Economics, Research, U.S. Department of Labor, - the Graduatenstitute of International Studies, Gehwa. Ls '-' ,Joel Segall, President,- Bernard Baruch College, and from 1974 to Jimes Jondrow 1976 was Dep Undersecretary for International Research Analyst, Public Research Institute, Center forAffairs, U.S. O,epatftment of Labor, Naval Analyses. Guy V.G. Ste , ' Dale W. Jorgenson 0 -Chief, Quantitative Studies, Division of International Professor of Economics, Harvard University. Finance, Board of Go(iernors of the Federal Reserve / System. 5 _ 4," Contributors le* . / . , . , Eric J. Toder . Thcimas W. Williams : Financial Economist,Office of Tax Analysis, Assistant Professor of Economics, BrandeisUniveriity.0 , Department, of Treasury. ,. Larry J. Wipf . * 'Jack E. Triplett I ,International, economist, Office of Foreign Econothic io Assistant:Commissioner, U.S. bureau of Labor Sta- Research, 0.S. Department of Labor. , J r. trStiCS. ., -Clayton Yeutter ...4 9.Norman Van Cott Attorpey -in Lincoln, Nebraska. He was Deputy Associate Professor of Economicd, Ball -State Special Representative for Trade Negotiaticins Univers i .- , Ford administration.' e .4- y * vl Preface Times and circumstances change; a new Administra- tion takes office; new principles and goals emerge. The papers in this volume were designed about two to four years ago, and delivered more than a year ago. They have been brought togepther and published in this vol- ume to fulfill comniitments.made at that time. Howard D. Samuel Deputy Under Secretary for International Affairs O o Nits . v11 Contents ,. Page -3 Editors' Introduction William G. Dewald 1 'Harry Gilman Harry Grubert Lfrry J. Wipf Introfluction to the Conference 'Joel Segall 5 Part One: Industry Studies Introduction Harry Grubert 10 Effects of Trade RstrIcdons James M. Jondrow 1,1 on Imports of Steil Comment 4 Edmund Ayoub , . 26 Corriment Hendrik SA-louthakker , 28 . - , Reply .46 James .M. Jondrow '31 Effects of Trade Barriers Eric J, foder .33 on the U.S. Automobile Market with N. Scott Cardell CommentI . Helen M. Kramer 5. Comment Jack E. Triplett . 56 Reply Eric J. Toder 60 , with N. Scott Cardell nk Rejoinder
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