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Daily Bulletin 10 November 2014 Daily Bulletin IN TODAY’S DAILY BIST 7/11/14 PERFORMANCE (TRY) Turkstat will announce September industrial production figures Indices Close (TL) Daily YTD Akcansa announced TRY67mn net profit for 3Q14, fully in line with the estimates BIST-100 77,958 0.6% 15.0% Akenerji announced a net loss of TRY132mn in 3Q14, worse than the CNBC-e BIST-30 95,614 0.9% 16.0% consensus estimate of a TL99mn net loss BIST-30 Futures 96.675 0.3% Albaraka Turk posted a net Q3 net profit of TRY65mn, in line with consensus Anadolu Cam announced TRY8mn net profit in 3Q14, in line with the consensus EQUITY MARKET DATA estimate of TRY4mn yet better than our estimate for a TR11mn loss BIST Total MCap (TRYmn) 567,550 Aksa posted 3Q14 net profit of TRY34mn lower than our estimate of TRY44mn Banks MCAP (TRYmn) 165,511 Aygaz posted Q3 net profit of TRY68mn, above consensus estimate of TRY53mn BIST Volume (TRYmn -3m avg) 3,665 Bim posted TRY115mn net profit for 3Q14, parallel to the consensus estimate BIST Aggregate Free Float 29.7% Enka posted TL320mn net profit in 3Q14, below consensus estimate of TL363mn Hurriyet announced net loss of TRY16mn in 3Q14 lower than house and MONEY MARKET consensus estimates FX RATES (CBT Bid) 7/11/14 Daily YTD Kardemir announced 3Q14 net profit of TRY40mn lower than house and US$/TRY 2.2707 1.4% 6.6% €/TRY 2.8158 0.5% -4.0% consensus estimates 1W Repo Rate 8.25% Koc Holding announced Q3 net profit of TRY678mn better than consensus Sise Cam announced TL122mn net profit in its 3Q14 financials, below the 4.2 consensus estimate for TRY137mn and house call of TRY132mn net income BIST-100 Index (US¢) TAV Airports announced a net profit of EUR89mn in 3Q14, beating our own estimate of EUR83mn and the consensus estimate of EUR81mn 3.7 Trakya Cam posted a TRY48mn net profit in 3Q14, falling short of the TRY55mn consensus estimate but exceeding our own estimate of TRY40mn in net income. New rules to ease fixed number portability – negative for Turk Telekom 3.2 Akfen, Alarko, Anel Elektrik, Aselsan, Banvit, Bank Asya and Pegasus Airlines, Royal Hali, Sabanci Holding, THY, Torunlar REIC to announce 3Q14 results today MARKET SUMMARY 2.7 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Lower rates and plunging oil prices should continue to support the Turkish investment theme. The BIST-100 rebounded by 1% from an intra-day low of 77,183 (its lowest since October 21st) on Friday to close the day at 77,958. The index may BOND MARKET Comp. Ann. Yld. (TRY) Daily ∆ (bps) continue its consolidation effort and recovery attempt at the beginning of this week. Maturity 7/11/14 Q3 earnings releases will be completed today. So far, 26% of the companies that July 13, 2016* 8.60% 8.0 have released their results have beaten expectations at the bottom-line, while the February 14, 2018 8.61% 6.0 remainder were equally split between those falling short and those reporting results March 8, 2023 8.98% 10.0 which were “in-line” with expectations (those companies with a reported EPS within * Benchmark bond +/-5% of consensus estimates). Nonetheless, in terms of operational performance, 12.5% 32% of non-financials have beaten expectations, while only 14% fell short of Compounded Annual Yield (2-Year Benchmark Bond) estimates, with the remaining having results broadly in line with estimates. 11.5% Brent crude recovered from a four-year low, gaining 53 cents to close at $83.39 a 10.5% barrel on Friday, but still down 28% from a mid-year peak of $115 a barrel. We suspect that Brent may head even further south from its four-year lows over the 9.5% coming weeks, as a production cut by OPEC in its November 27 meeting may be far 8.5% from taken for granted. In the meantime, the U.S. government’s oil and gas inventory data will be watched carefully on Wednesday as an interim driver. Falling 7.5% commodity prices are a blessing for Turkey, bringing necessary relief to its inflation 6.5% and external imbalances. Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 In China, exports rose by more than estimated in October, while inflation data was mixed, as CPI stabilized but remained at a near five-year low, while PPI fell by a EUROBONDS Comp. Ann. Yld ($) Daily ∆ (bps) worse-than-expected 2.2% on year. Maturity 7/11/14 February 5, 2025 4.57% -1.8 The week ahead: What to watch… At home, we will have September industrial production data today and September current account figure on Thursday. The data March 17, 2036 5.31% -0.7 indicates that the economy is cooling and that more stimulus measures may be February 17, 2045 5.40% -1.0 needed. The September JOLTS report (Thursday), October retail sales and November consumer sentiment (Friday) are the main highlights of this week’s economic releases in the U.S. Across the pond, the flash estimate of EU and Euro Area Q3 GDP and October’s inflation for the Eurozone will be announced on Friday. It should be noted that if Germany cannot post the expected 0.1% GDP growth in Q3, it will have technically slipped into recession. Pleasesee disclaimer at theend of this report EVENTS CALENDAR Date Period Data Last Exp. 10 Nov Sep Industrial Production (Sa,YoY %) 5.2 13 Nov Sep CAD (US$bn) -2.8 17Nov Aug Unemployment (Sa, %) 10.4 MACRO AND POLITICAL NEWS Turkstat will announce September industrial production figures. According to CNBC-e survey, market expects non- seasonal industrial production at 3.7% YoY versus our expectation of 2.5% YoY growth. If our expectation comes true, industrial production growth would be 2.9%, up from 2.6% YoY growth recorded in 2Q14 but down from 5.3% YoY growth in 1Q14. There is close relation between industrial production growth and gross domestic product growth. The GDP grew 4.7% YoY in 1Q14 and 2.1% YoY in 2Q14. COMPANY AND SECTOR NEWS Akcansa (AKCNS – NEUTRAL; rating: Outperform; 12M TP: 16.50) announced a net profit of TRY67mn in 3Q14, in line with our own estimate (TRY65mn) and the consensus estimate (TRY69mn). Akcansa posted a top line of TRY367mn in 3Q14, marking a 12% YoY increase, in parallel with our own TRY360mn estimate and the consensus estimate of TRY369mn. Domestic revenues were up by 20% YoY to TRY341mn in 3Q14 on the back of better sales volume and improved pricing environment (thanks to a boost in demand with the 3rd Bridge and big ticket infrastructure projects), as well as strong demand from urban transformation projects in the greater Istanbul region. On the other hand, export revenues tumbled by 28% YoY to TRY34mn in 3Q14 as Akcansa strategically diverted most of its production to the lucrative domestic market. EBITDA was up by 21% YoY in 3Q14 to reach TRY110mn, while the Company’s EBITDA margin climbed by 2.4 pp YoY from 27.6% in 3Q13 to 30.1% in 3Q14 (in line with our in-house call of 30%). The EBITDA margin was supported by a higher CUR, an increased share of local cement sales in the total (driven by the construction of the 3rd Bridge and urban transformation), a better pricing environment in the Marmara region and rising use of alternative fuels. Net-net; Akcansa maintained its outstanding operating performance in 3Q14 with solid domestic operations and we believe it will sustain this robust operational performance in 4Q14 as well. The initial market reaction to the 3Q14 results is expected to be neutral today. We have a 12-month TP of 16.50 for Akcansa and we maintain our “Outperform” rating. Akenerji (AKENR – NEGATIVE; rating: Underperform; 12M TP: TRY1.20) announced a net loss of TRY132mn in 3Q14, worse than the CNBC-e consensus estimate of a TL99mn net loss but in line with our estimate of TRY137mn net loss. The company’s operating performance was in line with our estimates. Although its net financial expense exceeded our estimates, the bottom line was in line with our expectations, mainly on the back of the deferred tax gain of TRY32mn in 3Q14. The company shares have outperformed BIST 100 index by 13% in the last 3 months. In our view, the worse-than- expected bottom line could have a negative impact on the shares in the short term. We maintain our 2014 and 2015 EBITDA forecasts of TRY97mn and TRY315mn, respectively. However, we have raised our forecasts for financial expenses (to reflect the change in exchange rate projections) and therefore revise down our bottom line forecasts from a TRY197mn net loss to a TRY213mn net loss for 2014 and from a TRY9mn net profit to a TRY58mn net loss for 2015. We maintain our “Underperform” rating and 12-month target price of TRY1.20 per share. Akfen Holding (AKFEN – NEUTRAL; rating: Outperform; 12M TP: TRY6.12) is scheduled to announce 3Q14 results today. We are expecting TRY20mn net loss compared to TRY23mn net loss in the CNBC-e consensus estimate. Aksa (AKSA – NEGATIVE; rating: Neutral; 12M TP: TRY8.00) announced a net profit of TRY34mn down by 15% YoY and 10% QoQ. The 3Q14 net profit figure is lower than our estimate of TRY44mn. There is no consensus estimate. The deviation came entirely from below the operating line.
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