UNHCR Emergency & Security Service
WRITENET Paper No. 14/2002
AFGHANISTAN: INTERNAL POLITICS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND GROUPINGS
Olivier Roy
CNRS, Paris
March 2003
WriteNet is a Network of Researchers and Writers on Human Rights, Forced Migration, Ethnic and Political Conflict
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THIS PAPER WAS PREPARED MAINLY ON THE BASIS OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION, ANALYSIS AND COMMENT. ALL SOURCES ARE CITED. THE PAPER IS NOT, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE, EITHER EXHAUSTIVE WITH REGARD TO CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY SURVEYED, OR CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE MERITS OF ANY PARTICULAR CLAIM TO REFUGEE STATUS OR ASYLUM. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THE PAPER ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THOSE OF WRITENET OR UNHCR. ISSN 1020-8429
Table of Contents
1 Introduction...... 1
2 Long Term Patterns of Afghan Political Culture ...... 1 2.1 Afghanistan – By Definition an ‘Unruly’ Country? ...... 1 2.2 A Country Defined by a Common Political Culture...... 4 3 Afghan Warlords and Commanders: Their Sociological Basis.....5 3.1 Warlords of the Pashtun Tribal Belt...... 8 3.2 Warlords of Non Pashtun Groups...... 9 4 Afghan Warlords and the Rebuilding of the State ...... 10
5 Stability for Afghanistan – a Regional Issue ...... 11
6 Conclusion: Prospects for Stability...... 13
7 Bibliography ...... 14
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1 Introduction
The present political and social situation in Afghanistan is itself largely the result of the transformation brought about by 23 years of war (1978-2001) and can therefore not be simply equated to a return to a ‘traditional’ pre-war Afghanistan. The main changes brought by the war period concern the ideologization of the political actors (Communists, Islamists, Taliban) and the connections between the Afghan actors and interests in neighbouring countries (mainly Pakistan). Nevertheless, after the collapse of the different ideological movements that have been the main actors of the wars, the resilience of the traditional political culture is obvious and is one of the keys to the understanding of the present relationship between the centre and the periphery.
To summarize, three elements must be taken into account in any evaluation of the potential for political stability in Afghanistan: