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Energy Analysis for Sustainable Mega-Cities Aumnad Phdungsilp Licentiate Thesis School of Industrial Engineering and Management Department of Energy Technology Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden 2006 Energy Analysis for Sustainable Mega-Cities Aumnad Phdungsilp Trita REFR Report No.06/52 ISSN 1102-0245 ISRN KTH/REFR/R-06/52-SE ISBN 91-7178-388-1 Licentiate Thesis by Aumnad Phdungsilp School of Industrial Engineering and Management Department of Energy Technology Royal Institute of Technology SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden Printed by Universitetsservice US AB Stockholm, 2006 © Aumnad Phdungsilp, 2006 ii ABSTRACT Cities throughout Asia have experienced unprecedented economic development over the past decades. In many cases this has contributed to their rapid and uncontrolled growth, which has resulted in a multiplicity of problems, including rapid population increase, enhanced environmental pollution, collapsing traffic systems, dysfunctional waste management, and rapid increases in the consumption of energy, water and other resources. The significant energy use in cities is not very well perceived in Asian countries. Although a number of studies into energy consumption across various sectors have been conducted, most are from the national point of view. Energy demand analysis is not considered important at the level of the city. The thesis is focused on the dynamics of energy utilization in Asian mega-cities, and ultimately aims at providing strategies for maximizing the use of renewable energy in large urban systems. The study aims at providing an in-depth understanding of the complex dynamics of energy utilization in urban mega-centers. An initial general analysis is complemented by a detailed study of the current situation and future outlook for the city of Bangkok, Thailand. An integrated approach applied to the study includes identification of the parameters that affect the utilization of energy in mega-cities and a detailed analysis of energy flows and their various subsystems, including commercial, industrial, residential and that of transportation. The study investigates and evaluates the energy models most commonly used for analyzing and simulating energy utilization. Its purpose is to provide a user-friendly tool suitable for decision-makers in developing an energy model for large cities. In addition, a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process has been developed to assess whether or not the energy systems meet the sustainability criteria. A metabolic approach has been employed to analyze the energy flow and utilization in selected Asian mega-cities, including Bangkok, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tokyo. The approach is applied to measure the majority of indirect energy flows or the energy embodied in the flows of goods and services involving the residents of those cities. Since the function of cities is to serve the lives of the residents, indirect energy consumption could be regarded as being of equal importance as that of direct energy use. The essence of embodied energy is that an indirect reflection upon behavior following direct energy consumption. It can illustrate how a city relies on the outside, for example other cities, countries, etc. and provides some interesting information that cannot be easily drawn from the direct energy demand. The study reveals that the indirect energy demand is more significant than the direct energy demand in Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tokyo, while direct energy demand is greater than the indirect energy demand in Beijing. This can be explained by the fact that Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tokyo have a greater reliance upon the outside in terms of energy demand. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system has been selected to perform Bangkok energy modeling. In a Bangkok case study a range of policy interventions are selected and how these would change the energy development in Bangkok by the year 2025 is examined. Different policies can be grouped by the sectors analyzed. The only supply-side policy considered meets an existing target of having 10% of electricity generated from renewable sources. The study period for the model started in 2005 and ends in 2025, with the year 2000 taken as the base year. The proposed scenarios were evaluated using the MCDM approach to rate their sustainability. Team members found that this method provided a methodology to help decision-makers to systematically identify management objectives and priorities. Keywords: Asian mega-cities; energy demand; metabolism of cities; energy modeling; sustainable energy; energy planning; renewable energy; Multi-Criteria Decision-Making iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS From working on this thesis, I owe many people a great deal of gratitude for supporting my studies financially, scientifically and also by personal friendships. First of all, I would like to give my most sincere gratitude to my supervisor Asst. Prof. Ivo Martinac, for giving me the opportunity to join the Sustainable Building Systems group, sharing his knowledge, and encouraging me to think over the years even for though it were for some time communication from afar. His words were not only thought provoking within the academic arena but also supportive in both my public and private lives. I wish to express my deep thanks to my principal supervisor (huvudhandledare), Prof. Björn Palm, for his never ending support, and always being kind and helpful whenever I needed it. I also want to thank Dhurakit Pundit University, Bangkok, Thailand for funding my scholarship, and Swedish Energy Agency (Energimyndigheten) for complementary funds. Experiences from the participation in various conferences financed by the Department of Energy Technology, Royal Institute of Technology have also been very useful and have contributed to my research. I would like to acknowledge, Assoc. Prof. Björn Frostell from the Division of Industrial Ecology at the Royal Institute of Technology, for his discussions and the further development of urban metabolism. The Stockholm Environment Institute – Boston for supporting the LEAP model. Also I gratefully acknowledge Prof. Svend Svendsen from the Department of Civil Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark and Prof. Anne Grete Hestnes from the Department of Architectural Design, History and Technology, The Norwegian University of Science and Technology for introducing me to the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making process. Prof. Raimo P. Hämäläinen from Systems Analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology for his support with the Web-HIPRE software. As with the Scandinavian scholars, I would also like to thank Prof. Kevin Bennett, Dr. Mark Howells, Thomas Alfstad, and their colleagues at the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town, for providing me with research facilities and discussions concerning the world of energy modeling, valuable comments, fun collaborations, exciting study visits, and a rich friendly atmosphere during my time in South Africa. Special thanks to Assoc. Prof. Shiji Kaneko from Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Japan, for the calculation of the Input- Output model. Assoc. Prof. Yoshiyuki Shimoda from Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Osaka University, Japan, for his discussion on the application of the metabolism of a city. I would like to thank the entire staff at the Department of Energy Technology, especially Inga Du Rietz for her help in many aspects during my studies here. My colleagues and office workers Lic. Eng. Paulina Bohdanowicz, and Branko Simanic for providing friendly, helpful and endless discussions. Special thanks to Wimolsiri Pridasawas and Seksan Udomsri, Thai Ph.D. students at our department for their support and suggestions, especially to Seksan for his never ending discussions covering scientific, economic and political perspectives. Most importantly, I am deeply grateful to my parents, brother and lovely sister for the continuous and unlimited love and support in helping me to achieve my goal. I would also like to thank my former teacher in Thailand, Dr. Janthana Kunchornrat for her encouragement. Last but not least, thanks to all the people who are not mentioned here but still are not forgotten. You will always have a place in my heart. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................iv TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................................v LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................vii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................ix LIST OF PUBLICATIONS.........................................................................................................x 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................1 1.1. Background of the thesis............................................................................................... 1 1.2. Sustainability and mega-cities....................................................................................... 2 1.3. Investigation of Asian mega-cities................................................................................
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