REPUBLIC OF GHANA CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR PREPARATION OF A MEDIUM-TERM MASTER PLAN FOR TRANSPORTATION ON THE VOLTA LAKE AND ITS SURROUNDING REGION RFP No.: MOT/IDA/TSP/QCBS/S/2 DRAFT - MASTER PLAN photo wikipediaphoto Consultancy Services for Preparation of a Medium-Term Master Plan for Transportation on the Volta Lake and its Surrounding Region DRAFT Master Plan Ref: 100814.001-100 – RE-03-02 RFP No. : MOT/IDA/TSP/QCBS/S/2 November 28, 2014 WORK TEAM Paul Picard, biol., MSc, vice-pres International Michel Simard, urb. econ., fin., M.A., Transport Planner & Economist Kwasi Adarkwa, Ph.D., prof., Transport Kofi Abban, Fish Specialist Edmund Baffour-Awuah Emilie Duval, Jr. Eng. Marie-Claude Codsi, Word Processing Approved by: ____________________________ Michel Simard, urb. econ fin, M.A. VERSION NO. DATE TITLE 1 2014.06.30 Draft Master Plan 2 2014.11.28 Draft Master Plan CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR PREPARATION OF A MEDIUM-TERM MASTER PLAN FOR TRANSPORTATION ON THE VOLTA LAKE AND ITS SURROUNDING REGION RFP NO.: MOT/IDA/TSP/QCBS/S/2 Executive Summary Introduction This document is the third report issued during the course of the “Consultancy Services for the Preparation of a Medium-Term Master Plan for Transportation on the Volta Lake and Its Surrounding Region”. It identifies the various initiatives to be implemented in a structured and phased manner, in order to develop the full potential of the Volta Lake within the framework of an integrated national transportation strategy. Vision and Objectives A Vision statement for the Volta Lake Master plan can be expressed as follows: " To allow efficient and reliable multimodal transport / logistics system and local connection transport system, and contribute to enhance regional economic development within a safe, affordable and sustainable environment”. From the Vision statement, the following objectives can be formulated: i) Connect isolated communities and help provide them access to services and markets, ii) Contribute to market accessibility for local economy, iii) Improve and develop crossing ferry services, iv) Implement lakeside infrastructure improving local services in most important locations, v) Develop an effective and reliable multimodal northbound and southbound transport system, vi) Improve safety, vii) Participate to the development of Growth Poles, viii) Support the development of recreation and tourism, ix) Serve diverse markets so as to tend to equilibrate volumes northbound and southbound, x) Improve safety, xi) Develop an integrated multimodal transport system, including logistics, warehousing and merchandising, coordinated with roads, Tema port and customs, xii) Contribute to Tema port efficiency improvement, xiii) Reduce trucking impacts on the road network, xiv) Equilibrate Eastern/Western Ghana socioeconomic development, xv) Develop an image of a complete integrated, effective and reliable transport system. Development Scenarios Current Traffic The surveys conducted show that more than two thirds (69.0%) of passengers carried yearly travel on market days whereas less than a third (31.0%) travel on non-market days. The presence and size of a market are important parameters in determining the level of informal services traffic at a specific location. The major markets operate twice a week, and at Dzemeni, there are three market days per week. Because traffic is mostly explained by market activities, the number of boats operating on one or two days a week is much greater (about 7 times) than that on non-market days. Yeji-Makango appears to be the most important crossing surveyed, with an estimated traffic of 550,000 passengers yearly. Other important locations are Dzemeni, Kete Krachi, Tapa Abotase, Dambai-Dodiokope, with more than 200,000 passengers yearly at each site. Passenger Forecasts The demand for cross-lake services could reach 5.6 million passengers per year in 2018, with a minimum of 2.7 million and a maximum of 11.3 million passengers per year, depending on the mobility of population and the level of service supplied. These figures represent 9 times (between 4 to 17 times) the current ridership. DRAFT MASTER PLAN JUNE 2014 i CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR PREPARATION OF A MEDIUM-TERM MASTER PLAN FOR TRANSPORTATION ON THE VOLTA LAKE AND ITS SURROUNDING REGION RFP NO.: MOT/IDA/TSP/QCBS/S/2 Out of this demand, two thirds should occur at Yeji, Kete Krachi, Dambai, Kpando-Torkor, Dzemeni, Akateng-Dedeso and Adawso. This means that the current and planned or considered crossings are indeed the most attractive ones in terms of demand. For each of these crossings, ridership is expected to be around 500,000-800,000 passengers per year in 2018 (between 250,000 and 1 million passengers per year). At each crossing, projected ridership is equivalent to the current total VLTC ridership. Other crossings are to be considered in the long term, especially at Tapa Abotoase, Batorkope-Bidi, Begyemse, Pedjai and Kejeu Bator. Forecasts for annual ridership are around 100,000 to 300,000 passengers per year. Also in the long term, local crossings at Bridge-Ano, Sakpiti and Islands should be considered because of the current isolation of the communities in these areas, even though the expected ridership is lower. Other crossings at the end of the lake area would be beneficial on the very long run in order to develop a territory better connected and integrated to the neighbouring areas, allowing for time savings and facilitating regional development. In the long run (2035), annual ridership is forecasted at 21 million passengers, or 35 times the current ridership, for the medium growth scenario. Ridership at each major crossing would be between 1 and 3 million passengers per year, depending on the location. Because car ownership is expected to grow over time, the growth in car volumes at crossings should be greater than that of passengers. However, because car ownership is still very low in the Volta Lake area, over the medium term the growth in car should not exceed passenger ridership. Annual car volume on lake crossings is forecasted at 500,000 for all the transport system (between 250,000 to 1.1million i.e. 4 to 20 times the current volume). Increases should be concentrated at the major crossings, where car volumes are expected to be from 60,000 to 100,000 cars per year for one major crossing, depending on the location. Our medium growth scenario is consistent with ECMMTP forecasts. In the long run, because of the projected steep increase in car ownership, car volumes on ferries are expected to see a huge growth with the medium growth forecasts being 85 times the current volumes. Although it is not possible to forecast tourism demand, the master plan shall consider need for tourism services and infrastructure on the lake, especially around Akosombo, closer to larger urban centres, and at Digya Park. Cargo Forecast Agricultural produce, and to a lesser extent cattle is a dominant economic sector that would be enhanced by improved transport conditions. Currently, the critical role of transport in Volta Lake area is to enable agricultural producers to bring and sell their produce at markets alongside the lake. Crossings must then connect localities to markets. Agricultural surplus in the Northern and Central lake area and production from Afram Plains could be shipped partly to southeastern Ghana, where urban markets are located, and to overseas destinations for which lake transport is interesting. Such shipments are forecasted at 264,000 tonnes and 77,000 tonnes in 2018 from the Northern and Central lake areas and Afram Plains respectively. Achieving this potential will require improving the organization for the marketing, intermediating and coordination of the supply. Exports from Burkina Faso, DRAFT MASTER PLAN JUNE 2014 ii CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR PREPARATION OF A MEDIUM-TERM MASTER PLAN FOR TRANSPORTATION ON THE VOLTA LAKE AND ITS SURROUNDING REGION RFP NO.: MOT/IDA/TSP/QCBS/S/2 mostly agricultural production, are considered for lake transport, for a quantity forecasted at more than 200,000 tonnes in 2018. Lake fisheries or fish farming is also an essential economic activity for local populations around the lake. Because this product needs to be fresh, shipments to markets over short distance along the lake should be preferred by fishermen and/or fish farmers. Although landings from fisheries are not expected to increase given the current overfishing problems, there is a potential to develop fish farming in the area. Some, although very little, of the production shall be directed in the long run to urban markets in southeastern Ghana, provided all measures are taken to guarantee the freshness of the product and therefore, optimal price. Oil products and cement generate most of the current cargo shipments over long distance routes on Volta Lake, with 88,000 and 43,000 tonnes respectively in 2012. These volumes could be higher given that the BOST-VLTC agreement for shipments on Volta Lake stipulates 140,000 tonnes yearly, but disruptions in travel service have prevented to achieve the full potential in the case of cement. In the short term, there is a real possibility to increase industrials shipments from south to north on Volta Lake. Over the medium and long terms, there is a potential for growth in these markets for Akosombo-Northern Port shipments. However, this growth is limited by two factors: i) the current market share of Volta Lake transport for oil products is rather high, if one considers the volume agreed, and ii) the development of cement production at Buipe should reduce the need to ship cement to Northern Ghana from the south. Some regional markets around the lake have not been targeted yet, and it is plausible to think of the need to ship oil products and cement to Northern and Central lake area and to Afram Plains, and also from Buipe in the case of cement.