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The Global Shi'astan. the Current Global Oil Market and a Case Study of Iraq

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The Global Shi'astan. the Current Global Oil Market and a Case Study of Iraq Corso di Laurea Magistrale (ordinamento ex D.M. 270/2004) in Relazioni Internazionali Comparate Tesi di Laurea The Global Shi'astan. The Current Global Oil Market and A Case Study of Iraq. Relatore Matteo Legrenzi Laureando Enrica Fei Matricola 840467 Anno Accademico 2013/2014 Abstract La tesi analizza il mercato contemporaneo del petrolio presentando il case-study dell'Iraq. Obiettivo della tesi e' stato analizzare la politica petrolifera del partito ISCI, Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq e dell'attuale leader Ammar al-Hakim, nella regione di Basra, nel Sud dell'Iraq. Una politica petrolifera, questa, caratterizzata, come si e' inteso dimostrare, da un orientamento sciita a vantaggio iraniano. Si e' proceduto ad un'analisi del mercato petrolifero contemporaneo, ricostruendo il ruolo storico del Golfo Persico e l'attuale scenario caratterizzato da, tra vari elementi, acquisizioni asiatiche ed embargo all'Iran. Si e' poi offerto il case-study dell'Iraq. Se ne e' tratteggiato un profilo storico, analizzando quindi l'ascesa di Saddam, il regime Ba'thista, l'invasione americana del 2003 e l'instabilita' post-regime change, per poi concentrarsi sull'Iraq here and now. Si e' dunque osservato la nuova élite dirigente, la costituzione del 2005, la questione curda, il governo 2007-2010 e 2010-2014 di Nuri al- Maliki, la campagna elettorale per le elezioni governative di aprile 2014 e i suoi risultati. Dando particolare importanza all'irrisolta questione del federalismo e della legge sugli idrocarburi, si e' analizzato il mercato petrolifero iracheno, in termini qualitativi e quantitativi, in relazione ai vari attori politici, riservando particolare attenzione al ruolo dello ISCI, Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. Lo studio si e' avvalso del contributo di autorevoli osservatori ed analisti che, intervistati, hanno aiutato nell'interpretazione dei dati raccolti. Chapter I - The Persian Gulf and The Global Oil Market 1.1. Introduction – The Emergent Shi'a Oil Market When talking of global energy resources and political economy, the Gulf is probably home to the world's most significant group of countries. Talking of global oil markets, there is no significant evidence that the Persian Gulf's role might change over the next decades. Indeed, the Gulf production is going to remain core. If one looks at where the vast majorities of resources are, it is in the Persian Gulf. If one looks at where the most significant upside in production is, it is in the Persian Gulf.1 Five Gulf countries possess 65% of the world's proven oil reserves. Their oil is by far the cheapest to produce and, if oil was a competitive industry, they would probably be the almost exclusive source of world oil.2 Despite all the developments and changes occurring in the global oil markets, unconventional flows in primis amongst many others, the Gulf is still a region of tremendous upside. A region of tremendous upside where, however, many contrasting elements and dynamics are going on; elements that, for the sake of energy security, need to be observed and consciously analyzed. On one side are the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, 'leading the charge toward regional globalization'.3 And on the other side are Iran and Iraq and to a different extent Azerbaijan. While the former show signs of 'ability for postmodern integration and global engagement'4 and stand out for 'remarkable gleaming tower blocks mushrooming in the desert on the edges of the Arabian Peninsula',5 the latter appear far more controversial, obscure, but still noteworthy. Iranian and Iraqi economic performances, in fact, have led to contrasting and often contradictory evaluations. Some have argued that they 'seem lost in the Westphalian era',6 that Iraqi's oil industry is 'a case of ambition, being very far ahead of reality, a case of mismanaged expectations'.7 Conversely, others have pointed out how 'the National Iranian Oil Company has been very successful in finding new strategies to circumvent sanctions and sold its fuel to Asia';8 how 'Iran is exporting more oil than it did last year, and in greater amounts 1 Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director at IHS Energy, Interview with the Author, 31/03/2014. 2 Giacomo Luciani, 'Oil and Political Economy in the International Relations of the Middle East', in International Relations of the Middle East, Louise Fawcett, pp. 82-83, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009). 3 Anoushiravan Ehteshami, Dynamics of Change in the Persian Gulf, Political Economy, War and Revolution, (Oxon: Routledge, 2013), p. 1. 4 Ibid., p. 1. 5 Ibid., p. 1. 6 Ibid., p. 1. 7 Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director at IHS Energy, Interview with the Author, 31/03/2014. 8 Humeyra Pamuk and Emma Farge, 'Iranian Sidesteps Sanctions to Export Its Fuel Oil', Reuters, 20 December than the limit the United States placed on exports under the on-going negotiations over Iran's nuclear program'.9 Or, talking about Iraq, how 'its exports capability is steadily increasing. In fact, according to the International Energy Agency, Iraqi oil production was 3,5 millions barrels per day in 2012, a level of production which hadn't occurred for 30 years; very high levels of production indeed, even compared to Iran'.10 Through the history since its discovery in Persia by William Knox D'Arcy in 1908,11 oil has fundamentally shaped the Gulf from whatever perspective one decides to look at it. Oil has been paramount in shaping the attitude of the UK, and later the US, towards the region.12 It had fundamental influence in shaping the boundaries and independent existence of some Gulf state: states such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and possibly even Kuwait would not have survived as independent entities without their oil.13 It has been a very important factor in the international relations of the Gulf states, both with respect to regional, or inter-Arab relations, and with respect to international relations at large – that is, relations with industrial and other developing countries.14 Finally, it has affected the domestic political order, introducing the paradigm of the 'rentier' state, which instead of being supported by society (as it happens in any 'conventional' state), is supported by the oil rent, payment from which accrues directly from the rest of the world and is distributed or allocated to the domestic population.15 It should then sound obvious that the history of the oil industry and oil market in the Gulf has passed through a number of different stages, depending on a plurality of factors: political systems, regime types, external powers, interstate conflicts, economic partnerships and so on. The oil-producing countries have naturally taken notice of the importance attributed to oil by the major powers and indeed attempted to take advantage of it. The history of the Gulf oil industry will be analyzed later; what can be said here is that if oil was initially an 'external 2012, available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/20/us-iran-fuel-exports-idUSBRE8BJ0C020121220, accessed on 05/01/2014. 9 Keith Johnson, 'Crude Reality: Iran's Oil Export Keeps Rising. Is That Cause for Concern?', Foreign Policy, 14 May 2014, available at: https://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/14/crude_reality, accessed on 05/05/2014. 10 Roberto Neccia, Gulf Advisor at Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Interview with the Author, 14/04/2014. 11 Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power, (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1991). 12 Giacomo Luciani, 'Oil and Political Economy in the International Relations of the Middle East', in International Relations of the Middle East, Louise Fawcett, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), p.84. 13 Ibid., p. 87. 14 Ibid., p. 88. 15 Ibid., p.91. commodity', meaning by that it was extracted by Western oil companies, sold to Western consumers, and 'the bulk of the profits from this process were pocketed by the oil companies which controlled the oil wells of the Persian Gulf',16 things were to change massively quite early on. Since the nationalizations of the 1970s, Gulf countries had taken control of their natural resources and they challenged, and indeed broke, the old paradigm of dependent relations of the primary-(raw-)material-producing countries with the industrial countries. They realized that they were able to sell their primary product at high prices and generate 'surplus' capital domestically. In other words, they realized that they could break the cyclical 'development of underdevelopment'.17 Oil was then, to have a transforming effect on the Persian Gulf states and, most importantly, to heavily influence the balance of power in the region. As said, that would pass through different stages and take various forms which will later observed. What must be mentioned here, fundamental to understanding this research and essential in introducing its hypothesis, is a pivotal core-element. For the Gulf countries oil, especially since the post-Gulf war, has essentially been a tool, more than an anything else. Gulf countries have used oil reserves to direct the balance of power in their favor and pursue specific objectives which have nothing to do with oil as a commodity. Saddam in Iraq, the Gulf analyst Serena Forni Tajé pointed out when interviewed for this work, would use Iraqi oil to gain international support in the wake of the Iran-Iraq war. 'He nourished alliances with Western powers', she commented, 'granting, for instance, oil-extraction rights in the Iraqi territory'.18 Conversely, for Western Powers oil itself has been the main objective. One could mention that Western powers have recently used oil as a tool as well, witness the American embargo against Iran, Libya and Iraq. However, while Iran has been under embargo, Saudi Arabia, certainly not the best example of human-rights-respecting democracy, has kept close relations with the Americans and generally the whole West by being a strong and reliable oil exporter.
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