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Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA) of the City of Bhubaneswar (Odisha)

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Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA) of the City of Bhubaneswar (Odisha) United Nations Development Program Enhancing Institutional and Community Resilience to Disasters and Climate Change Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA) of the City of Bhubaneswar (Odisha) Final Report November 2014 Multi-Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for the City of Bhubaneswar, Odisha For the attention of: Emergency Analyst and Officer-in-Charge, DM Unit, UNDP, 55, Lodi Estate, New Delhi – 110 003 Final Report Confidential Page 2 of 174 Multi-Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for the City of Bhubaneswar, Odisha Document Control Version Date Author(s) Brief Description of type of changes 1.0 Oct 2014 Sushil Gupta, Draft Muralikrishna, Rupesh Sinha, Niva Srivastava, Ujjwal Sur, Vijaya Lakshmi, Indu Jain, Uttam Singh, Kishor Dhore, Murthy MVRL, Upamanyu Mahadevan 2.0 Nov 2014 Sushil Gupta, Final Muralikrishna, Rupesh Sinha, Niva Srivastava, Ujjwal Sur, Vijaya Lakshmi, Indu Jain, Uttam Singh, Kishor Dhore, Murthy MVRL, Upamanyu Mahadevan Final Report Confidential Page 3 of 174 Multi-Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for the City of Bhubaneswar, Odisha Acknowledgements The consulting team extends its appreciation to UNDP, India for awarding this assignment to us. We would also like to acknowledge the valuable guidance and support of Mr. G. Padmanabhan, Mr. Ashok Malhotra, Ms. Abha Mishra and Mr. Prasad Babu of UNDP, India for their discussions and sharing of thoughts during the various meetings on the project. We would also like to acknowledge our sincere gratitude to Dr. Krishan Kumar, IAS, City Commissioner, Municipal Corporation for extending all possible support in conducting this assignment. We extend our sincere thanks to Dr. Kamal Lochan Mishra, Chief General Manager, OSDMA for extending all help in getting data from different departments. We extend our sincere thanks to all the city officials for providing their valuable support during data collection activity and final workshop and to Mr. Meghanad Behera, City Project Coordinator, UNDP for his kind help in coordinating with various Govt. departments. We also acknowledge GIS division of Bhubaneswar Municipal Corporation (BMC) for sharing of the GIS data. Final Report Confidential Page 4 of 174 Multi-Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for the City of Bhubaneswar, Odisha Executive Summary The Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA) for the city of Bhubaneswar, Odisha has been carried out as part of the on-going GOI-UNDP project “Enhancing Institutional and Community Resilience to Disasters and Climate Change.” It aims to reduce disaster risks in urban areas by enhancing institutional and community resilience to disasters and climate change by integrating Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures in the development programs as well as to undertake mitigation activities based on scientific analysis. This report provides findings of the hazard risk and vulnerability assessment of key natural hazards the city is exposed to, namely – Cyclonic wind, Flood, Earthquake, Heat wave, and Epidemics. Quantitative modeling techniques based on GIS were used for mapping and analysis using standard public domain models. Based on these results, recommended actions for various mitigation and adaptation measures were provided in the last section. City Profile: Bhubaneswar, the capital of Odisha state, is also popularly known as the "Temple City of India". It is located on the Eastern Ghats, about 40 km west of North Bay of Bengal (with an average elevation of 45 meters above mean sea level) in Khordha district. It lies on the west bank of river Kuakhai, which is a tributary of River Mahanadi that flows about 30 km southeast of Cuttack. The river Daya branches of Kathjodi and flows along the southeastern part of the city. The city has a spatial spread 135 sq. km with 67 Census wards and a population of more than 8 Lakhs. It has a population density of 6,228 person/ sq km. City Asset: The city has more than 197,000 households and about 75% of the buildings in the city are under residential use. The city has several commercial and industrial establishments; about 14% and 2.5% of the total buildings are under commercial and industrial use, respectively. The city has a total road network of about 1,642 km of which about 51 km is national highway passing through the city. The total length of rail network in Bhubaneswar city is about 34 km and the only international airport is located at a distance of 3 km from the city center. The city has 1,171 educational institutions and 667 health centers. The city, being a temple city, has a large number of religious places (more than 117 sites). The total estimated value for main exposure elements for Bhubaneswar city is more than INR 151,452 Crores, out of which Residential, Commercial, and Industrial exposure is about INR 91,085 Crores, INR 43,707 Crores, INR 4,353 Crores, respectively. The exposure value of essential facilities (health care centers, educational institutions, etc.), and transportation systems are estimated at about INR 4,985 Crores, and INR 7,186 Crores, respectively. Hazard mapping and analysis: For the past three decades, the state of Odisha and in particular, Bhubaneswar city has been experiencing unprecedented contrasting extreme weather conditions; from heat waves to cyclones; from droughts to floods. In the year 1998, the State of Odisha faced an unprecedented heat wave situation, because of which 2,042 persons lost their lives. Though extensive awareness campaigns have largely reduced the number of casualties during post 1998 period, a good number of casualties are still reported each year. It has become a menace during peak summer. The temporal analysis of daily temperature data for the past three decades shows a steady increase in city temperature. During May 2013, a maximum temperature of 47oC was recorded at Bhubaneswar. Most of the districts in Odisha, on an average, recorded 40ºC during April 2014 and, the temperature across a few districts in coastal Odisha reached 46ºC by the end of May. Very severe heat stress conditions prevailed in May / June in 2014. In fact, Bhubaneswar has become one of the hottest Indian cities in recent times. Final Report Confidential Page 5 of 174 Multi-Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for the City of Bhubaneswar, Odisha Floods and water logging in the low-lying areas of the city have also become common due to unplanned growth of the city. The south-west monsoon contributes a considerable portion of heavy rainfall in both onset and withdrawal phases, which generally lead to flash floods in a short time. Analysis suggests that rainfall amount per event has varied from 100 mm to 520 mm and the frequency of flash floods across coastal Odisha has increased considerably from 1960 onwards. Most of the heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from the central part of coastal Odisha in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of heavy rainfall with less inter-annual variability. It is because low-pressure systems develop over north-west Bay of Bengal with minimum inter-annual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. During the period from September to November each year, a number of cyclonic storms originating in the Bay of Bengal overrunning the city also bring gales and heavy rains during the northeast monsoon. According to a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report, its wind and cyclone zone is at a "very high damage risk". During late withdrawal phase of the south-west monsoon season on Oct. 30, 1999, Bhubaneswar city received a record 43 cm of rainfall in a few hours. Again, in the year 2009, rapid formation of meso- scale disturbances due to strong low-level convergence of moist air from the Bay of Bengal in the presence of convectively unstable stratification was responsible for heavy rainfall, which led to widespread heavy rainfall events. The 1999 Odisha cyclone caused major damages to buildings and city infrastructure, and loss of human lives. The flat coastal belts with poor drainage, high degree of siltation of the rivers, soil erosion, breaching of embankments and spilling of floodwaters over them cause severe floods in the river basin and delta areas. This problem becomes even more acute when floods coincide with high tide. The entire coastal belt in Odisha is prone to storm surges. However, Bhubaneswar city, being about 40 km from the coast, does not suffer from storm surge. The storms that produce tidal surges are usually accompanied by heavy rainfall making the coastal belt vulnerable to both floods and storm surges. A good number of people, nearly 300 persons, succumb to death due to thunderstorm lightning in the State of Odisha every year. According to the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) IS:1893 (2002, 2014) on a scale ranging from I to V in order of increasing susceptibility to earthquakes, the city lies in seismic zone III, which is a moderate seismic risk zone (BMTPC, 2006). In spite of the moderate, non- damaging earthquakes observed so far in and around Bhubaneswar, it cannot be said confidently that higher intensity earthquakes are unlikely. Recently, on May 21, 2014 an earthquake of magnitude 6 on the Richter scale occurred in the Bay of Bengal, which was severely felt in different parts of Bhubaneswar city due to local soil-amplifications, though there was no report of any significant damage in the city. Recent studies have indicated that the Mahanadi river valley is faulted and could be a potential earthquake source. Besides this, the Sumatra fault zone and tectonic plate setting along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Burma Micro-plate boundaries in the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal pose potential threats of tsunami for the coast of Odisha.
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