Available Online at http://www.recentscientific.com International Journal of CODEN: IJRSFP (USA) Recent Scientific

International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Research Vol. 11, Issue, 08 (B), pp. 39445-39453, August, 2020 ISSN: 0976-3031 DOI: 10.24327/IJRSR Research Article

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF CYCLONE HAZARDS AND THE CHANGING DIMENSIONS OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT IN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA

Jitendra Kumar Behera and Gopal Krishna Panda

Dept. of Geography, Utkal University Vani Vihar, – 751004 Odisha India

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24327/ijrsr.2020.1108.5505

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Article History: Odisha is one of the most vulnerable states for the hazards of the tropical cyclones along the east

th coast of India since time immemorial. The low pressure systems developing over the Received 10 May, 2020 and South East Asian region makes a along the Odisha coast and travel inland. Very often Received in revised form 2nd these cyclonic hazards had turned in to disasters affecting the life, livelihood and property of the June, 2020 people. Strong wind, torrential rain, flooding and unusual storm surges accompanied with the Accepted 26th July, 2020 th cyclones cause severe devastations with the destruction of dwellings, damage to infrastructure and Published online 28 August, 2020 standing crops besides loss of life along the track of its movement and adjacent areas. Odisha’s

exposure to these extreme events, people’s perception and human response, adaptations, its risk Key Words: mitigation and management has undergone a sea change in the twenty-first century keeping at pace , Disaster Risk Index, with the scientific innovations and international guidelines. This study makes an attempt to assess Vulnerability, Resilience, Sendai the vulnerability of the state to the tropical cyclones based on a Disaster Risk Index. Time series and Framework spatial analysis is used to study their trend and impacts. Content analysis is used to study the innovative strategies of disaster risk reduction of achieving the zero casualty as per the Sendai framework and community resilience. The findings of the study indicate an increasing vulnerability of the state to more number of severe cyclones. But however, the revised strategies in crisis management and community based disaster preparedness have been the key to the success in reducing disaster risk in the state.

Copyright © Jitendra Kumar Behera and Gopal Krishna Panda, 2020, this is an open-access article distributed under the

terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any

medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

INTRODUCTION droughts and floods. 7.4 million People are affected annually out of which 40.5% due to floods and 18% due to cyclone. It is Cyclone is one of the natural hazards that have capability to reported that about 50,000 mortalities have occurred due to risk lives, loss of property and infrastructure. Odisha is one of natural disasters in Odisha within a span of 38 years from 1970 the most vulnerable states in India as far as cyclones are to 20071.” It is a well known fact that natural hazards are concerned. In view of its tropical location and the long triggered by natural forces but losses due to these extreme coastline, Odisha has been recurrently affected by cyclones events are mostly the acts of man. “The Indian subcontinent is which are often followed with floods. Generally two cyclone the worst affected part of the world as per the death toll seasons prevail over Odisha. One is during pre-monsoon period statistics. Out of 9-recorded cases of heavy loss of human lives (i.e. April, May and June up to onset of monsoon) and another accounting to 40,000 or more by cyclones during the past 300 is in the post monsoon season (i.e. October to December) in years, 7 cases (77%) occurred in Indian subcontinent2”. The terms of seasonality of occurrence. The cyclones which had social and economic losses due to these disasters in Odisha had landfall in Odisha coast normally originates in the Bay of been very high and often immeasurable. The poor and the Bengal and adjoining seas and dissipates on the land. The marginalized people like the small and landless farmers, cyclones of land origin and land dissipation or sea dissipation agricultural laborers and daily wage earners are the most are negligible. Most devastating cyclones had occurred in sufferers by these events. Odisha has 30 districts and the Odisha in the months of May or October and their impacts have coastal districts have been most affected when the cyclones been so severe that it has been able to cripple the economy of have their landfall along the coast. The interior districts like the state. The 1999 super cyclone has been the best example of , Anugul, , , Sambalpur, Gajapati, it. “The state suffers from extreme weather like storms,

*Corresponding author: Jitendra Kumar Behera Dept. of Geography, Utkal University Vani Vihar, Bhubaneswar – 751004 Odisha India International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Vol. 11, Issue, 08 (B), pp. 39445-39453, August, 2020

Bolangir and Kalahandi also experience the wrath of the (ISDR) defines vulnerability as “the set of condition and cyclones in the form of heavy and torrential rain leading to process resulting from physical, social, economic and floods. “Countries bordering the Indian Ocean are confronted environmental factors which increase the susceptibility of a with one of the most serious problems of any place community to the impact of hazards6. Disaster impact data have on the Earth. This is particularly true in the northern Bay of been collected from the Annual Reports of the Odisha State Bengal where the unique combination of a large astronomical Disaster Management Authority (OSDMA) and office of the tide, a funneling coastal configuration, low flat terrain and Special Relief Commissioner. Besides these sources, frequent severe tropical storms occasionally produce storm population and settlement related information and maps are surges that kill thousands of people3”. Disasters are natural and collected from the offices of the Director of Census Operations, human caused events that have an adverse impact on Bhubaneswar. The study makes use of descriptive statistics and community, region, or nation. Events associated with a disaster time series analysis of the cyclonic events and their impacts. can overwhelm response resources and have damaging Simple probability analysis is used for estimating the economic, social or environmental impacts4. A natural probability of occurrence based on magnitude and seasonality disaster is a hazardous event that causes large number of of occurrence of the cyclonic events. Spatial analysis is also fatalities and/or overwhelming property damage5. used with the help of ARC GIS to study the pattern of

vulnerability and risk at the district level using disaster risk Objectives index. The strength and weakness of the cyclone mitigation The study aims to analyze the nature and characteristics of the programs are studied based on SWOT and Content Analysis cyclonic hazards which had affected Odisha state in terms of along with focus group discussion of the measure stakeholders, magnitude, frequency and periodicity of the events. The study disaster managers and community leaders. also aims to explore the impact of these extreme events in terms of exposure, casualty besides the spatial pattern of risk ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS and relative vulnerability at the district level. The study also Tropical Cyclones and their Classification investigates the new dimensions of cyclone risk reduction and its mitigation measures. However the specific objectives of the A cyclone is an intense vortex or a whirl in the atmosphere study are given below. associated with intense low pressure area at the center with numerous thunderstorms and very strong winds circulating 1. Time series analysis of cyclonic disturbances along the around it in an anti-clockwise direction in the Northern Odisha coast with reference to their magnitude and Hemisphere and in a clockwise direction in the Southern frequency during the last century from 1900 to 2017. Hemisphere. Tropical cyclones feed on heat released when 2. Periodicity analysis and seasonal pattern of vulnerability moist air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor of cyclonic disturbances affecting Odisha coast. contained in the moist air. The term ‘tropical’ refers to both the 3. Spatio-temporal analysis of the vulnerability and risk of geographic origin of these systems, which form almost the state at the district level in relation to the cyclonic exclusively in tropical regions of the globe, and their formation disasters in maritime tropical air masses. Depending on its location and 4. Assessment of the cyclone risk mitigation strategies and strength, a tropical cyclone is called by many other names, such community resilience in the state focusing on community as hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical based disaster preparedness, emergency management and depression and simply cyclone. While tropical cyclones can post disaster rehabilitation and resettlement. produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, they are

Besides the above objectives, the study aims to answer some of also able to produce high waves and damaging storm surges. the basic questions pertaining to the cyclonic activity and They develop over large bodies of warm water, and lose their disaster risk management in Odisha such as: strength over land after their landfall along the coast. This is the reason for coastal regions receiving a significant damage i. What is the trend of cyclonic activities and landfall from a tropical cyclone, while inland regions are relatively less along Odisha coast? affected. Heavy rains often produce significant flooding inland, ii. Whether there is a seasonal shifting of cyclonic activities and storm surges bring extensive coastal flooding up to several in view of recent climate changes? kilometers from the coastline depending on the coastal iii. Whether the spatial pattern of vulnerability and risk of topography devastating the coastal habitations, standing crops cyclonic hazards in the state has a bearing on the disaster including loss of human life and domestic lives. A strong development linkages. tropical cyclone usually harbors an area of sinking air at the iv. What is the strength, weakness and opportunities of centre of circulation which is called ‘ of the cyclone’. cyclonic disaster mitigation programs in view of the Weather in the eye is normally calm and free of clouds, goals and strategies outlined in the Sendai Framework of although sea may be extremely violent. The eye is normally disaster risk reduction. circular in shape, and may vary in size from 3 km to 370 km in

Data, Methodology and Study Area diameter. Surrounding the eye is the region called ‘ (CDO)’, a concentrated area of strong The study is based on the meteorological data of cyclonic thunderstorm activity. Curved bands of clouds and disturbances collected from cyclone E-Atlas of the Indian thunderstorms trail away from the eye in a spiraling manner. Meteorological Department and the website of the Regional These bands are capable of producing heavy bursts of rain and Specialized Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones gusting wind, as well as tornadoes. Indian Meteorological (RSMCTC) over North Indian Ocean of the IMD, Government Department has classified the tropical cyclonic disturbances on of India. “The international strategy for disaster risk reduction 39446 | P a g e Jitendra Kumar Behera and Gopal Krishna Panda., Vulnerability Analysis of Cyclone Hazards and the Changing Dimensions of Disaster Risk Management in Odisha Along the East Coast of India the basis of their associated wind speed which indicates their devastations are maximum. This is an useful information in damage potential. sensitizing people and the disaster mangers for community preparedness and response. In the present study the data Table 1 Classification of Tropical Cyclonic Disturbances available with the Indian Meteorological Department on origin Sl.No Types of Disturbances Wind Speed in Knots (Kmph) and propagation of the cyclonic disturbances of the period 1891 1 Low pressure area Less than17 knots (<31 kmph) to 2017 have been analyzed for their magnitude, frequency and 2 Depression 17 to 27 knots (31 to 49 kmph) 3 Deep Depression 28 to 33 knots (50 to 61 kmph) periodicity of occurrence. During this period of 128 years 4 Cyclonic Storm 34 to 47 knots (62 to 88 kmph) (1891-2017) the Indian region has experienced 1562 number of 5 Severe Cyclonic Storm 48 to 63 knots (89 to 118 kmph) cyclonic disturbances of which 77% had their origin in the Bay Very Severe Cyclonic 6 64 to 119 knots (119 to 221 kmph) of Bengal region, 14% had their origin in the Storm 119 knots & above (221 kmph & region and 9% were of land origin. Out of all these 7 Super Cyclonic Storm above) disturbances 58% were depressions, 22% were cyclonic storms and the remaining 20% were severe cyclonic storms. It is needless to mention that many of the dwellings with mud and bamboo walls, straw thatched roofs in the coastal tracts of India and their rural infrastructure are no match to withstand the wind speed of cyclonic and severe cyclonic storms. The frequency distribution of these disturbances indicating their trends and concentration in different time periods are depicted in the figures 2, 3 and 4. These figures reveal a declining trend of cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal region and the cyclones of land origin. But however, the cyclonic activity of the Arabian Sea is showing an increasing trend in the recent times.

Yearly Frequency of Cyclones and Depressions- Bay of Bengal

18Intensity (Level): D+CS+SCS 16 14

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1891 1897 1903 1909 1915 1921 1927 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017

Fig 2 Distribution of cyclonic disturbances i.e. Depressions (D), Cyclonic Storms (CS) and Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) originating from the Bay of Bengal Region.

Yearly Frequency of Cyclones and Depressions- Arabian Sea 7

6 Intensity (Level): D+CS+SCS 5 Fig. 1 (a) Track of the (b) Structure of the Cyclone Fani approaching towards Odisha coast with its eye at the center and the spiraling 4 cloud bands around the central eye 3 Magnitude, Frequency and Periodicity of Cyclonic Disturbances 2

The understanding of the magnitude and frequency of landfall 1 and the periodicity of occurrence of the cyclones gives an 0 indication of the relative vulnerability of the coastal areas

towards the cyclonic hazards and disasters. The landfall of a 1891 1895 1899 1903 1907 1911 1915 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 cyclone indicates the area along the coast where a cyclone coming from the sea enters into the land or hits at the coast. It Fig 3 Distribution of cyclonic disturbances i.e. Depressions (D), Cyclonic Storms (CS) and Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) originating from the Arabian is the area where the fury of the cyclone is felt first and the Sea Region. 39447 | P a g e International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Vol. 11, Issue, 08 (B), pp. 39445-39453, August, 2020

Frequency of Cyclonic Storms Yearly Frequency of Cyclones and Depressions of Land origin over India 80

4.5 70 4 60 Intensity (Level): D+CS+SCS 3.5 50 3 40 2.5 2 30 1.5 20 1 10 0.5 00 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1891 1896 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Fig 6 Monthly distribution of cyclonic storms of the Indian region (1891-2016) Fig 4 Distribution of cyclonic disturbances i.e. Depressions (D), Cyclonic Storms (CS) and Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) originating from the Indian main land Frequency of Depressions Several studies reveal that although there is a large variation of frequency of cyclonic disturbances from year to year, there is 250 no definite trend in the annual frequency. Roughly 7% of the total global genesis of the tropical cyclones occurs in the North 200 Indian Ocean. About 6 tropical disturbances reach tropical 150 storm intensity in the region in a year with variation from 1 to 10 during the past century. The periodicity of occurrence of the 100 tropical disturbances of different intensities is shown in the figures 5, 6 & 7. These figures reveal that 50 is highly seasonal in the Indian region. The numbers reaching severe tropical storm intensity has a bi-modal distribution with 0 the primary maximum in October-November months and Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec secondary maximum in the month of May. The depressions are distributed between the months of May to November with a Fig 7 Monthly distribution of cyclonic depressions of the Indian region (1891- peak in the month of July. “East Coast of India is vulnerable for 2016) tropical cyclone hazards which form over Bay of Bengal (BoB). The average annual frequency of tropical cyclones over Relative Vulnerability of the Coastal States across the Bay of Bengal the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) is about 5 to 6% of the global annual average. The frequency is more in the BoB than in the Arabian Sea, the ratio being 4:1. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean displays a bi-modal characteristic with a primary peak in November and secondary peak in May”7. Table 2 Frequency of cyclonic disturbances of the Indian Region during 1891-2016.

Cyclones J F M A M J J A S O N D Total Depression 11 4 2 10 38 111 149 191 161 125 68 41 911 (D) Cyclonic 06 01 03 15 27 45 38 29 32 67 55 28 346 Storm (CS) Severe Cyclonic 02 01 02 18 61 20 08 03 20 54 88 28 305 Storms (SCS) D+CS+SCS 19 06 07 43 126 176 195 223 213 246 211 97 1562

Frequency of Severe Cyclonic Storms

100

80

60 Fig 8 Variation in the vulnerability of the coastal states of India to cyclonic disturbances and recurrence interval for cyclones and severe cyclones. 40 20 Analysis of the cyclonic disturbances of the Indian Ocean 00 region of the last century reveals that the Indian east coast facing Bay of Bengal is more than 6 times vulnerable than the Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec west coast of India along the Arabian Sea. Among the states of

Fig 5 Monthly distribution of severe cyclonic storms of the Indian region the west coast, the vulnerability is high for Gujarat and North (1891-2016) Maharashtra in comparison to the other coastal states of the 39448 | P a g e Jitendra Kumar Behera and Gopal Krishna Panda., Vulnerability Analysis of Cyclone Hazards and the Changing Dimensions of Disaster Risk Management in Odisha Along the East Coast of India west coast. Along the eastern coast, Odisha has the highest coastal sections of the state. Vulnerability of the different vulnerability to the cyclonic disturbances and their recurrence coastal sections of the Indian east coast is compared with that intervals are shown in the Fig.-8. As regards the recurrence of the Odisha coast to reveal inter-state variations besides its interval of the severe storms along the east coast, all the coastal annual and seasonal patterns. Table-3 shows the distribution of states of the east coast are equally vulnerable with a recurrence the cyclonic disturbances of different magnitude originating interval of 4 years except where it is nearly 5 from the Bay of Bengal and affecting the Odisha Coast in years. But however, Odisha coast has the highest vulnerability percentage to their total number for a period of 118 years, from to storms in terms of landfall along its coast with a recurrence 1901 to 2017. The analysis reveals that more depressions have of 2 years. During the last century the number of storms and affected the Odisha Coast in the month of July and August, depressions land-falling over the coasts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra more storms in the month of June and July and more severe Pradesh and West Bengal much less than Odisha coast. The storms in the month of May and October. Thus October and recurrence interval of a storm along the Odisha coast is 2 years May are the most vulnerable months for landfall of cyclones where as it is 6 years for Tamil Nadu, 5years for West Bengal along the Odisha coast. The distribution of the cyclonic coast and 3 years for the Andhra coast. Thus in terms of disturbances along Odisha coast is confined between the month recurrence of landfall, Odisha coast along the Bay of Bengal is of May and November. If the disturbances are grouped in terms more vulnerable than other states of the east coast. Many of the of pre and post monsoon seasons, they occur more frequently in severe storms have a general pattern of movement towards the post monsoon season. The memorandum of Govt. of Odisha north or northwest or west of their source of origin in the Bay on Philin also mentions that “the disturbances which develop in of Bengal and north or north-eastern direction in the Arabian the pre and post monsoon period intensify into severe storms of Sea. IPCC is of the opinion that with the current trend of devastating nature. The most vulnerable month for the climatic variability accompanied with global warming and occurrence of a severe cyclone is October followed by the increased green house effects, the Indian coastal states are month of September” 8. likely to be affected with more number of cyclones and Table 3 Monthly Distribution of Cyclonic Disturbances specifically with more intense storms of very high magnitude Affecting Odisha in % to the total number of disturbances. with greater frequency. This situation is well observed with the Super Cyclone in 1999, Philin in 2013, Hudhud in 2014, Titli SI. Disturbances May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Total 1 Depression 0 12 27 36 22 3 0 100 in 2015, Phani and Bulbul in 2019 and Amphan in 2020 at very 2 Storm 0 17 24 30 19 7 3 100 3 S. Storm 14 0 14 9 9 40 14 100 close intervals along the east coast. It is also observed that Total 1 12 25 33 21 6 2 100 states of Odisha and West Bengal have been more vulnerable to cyclones in the months of May and October where as the Tamil Orissa : No. of Cyclonic Storms & S.Storms(1901-2007) Nadu and Andhra Coast are more vulnerable in the months of 20 November to January. 15

Spatial Pattern of Vulnerability across the Coastal districts of 10 Number Odisha 5 0 Understanding the relative vulnerability of the coastal districts Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec towards cyclonic disturbances is necessary for understanding Months the problem at the grass root level for disaster preparedness Storms Severe Storms activities. The landfall of a cyclone is the place where a cyclone enters the land from the sea or vice versa. It is the area Fig 10 Seasonal pattern of cyclonic disturbances (storms and severe storms) where the fury of the cyclone is the most devastating. along the Odisha coast during 1901-2017

Odisha Land fall of Cyclonic Disturbances (1901-2017) The 1999 Super Cyclone of Odisha began on October 29. Its landfall has also occurred at the time of the highest probability of the occurrence of a severe storm along the Odisha coast. It is observed that the disturbance which develops during the pre and post monsoon period intensifies into very severe cyclonic storms. 480 km of coastline depicts a variable figure in terms of vulnerability to the landfall of cyclonic disturbances. Among the six coastal districts Baleswar has been most vulnerable followed by , , , and

Impact of the Cyclones on People and Economy and its Shock Profile

Population Exposed

Fig 9 Landfall of cyclonic disturbances along Odisha coast The coastal districts of Odisha have been most affected due to the landfall of the cyclones. However the districts of Puri, The cyclonic disturbances of 1901-2017 which affected the Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada face the wrath of the state of Odisha are analysed in terms of landfall in different cyclones almost every year. Other coastal districts such as 39449 | P a g e International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Vol. 11, Issue, 08 (B), pp. 39445-39453, August, 2020

Baleswar, Bhadrak, Ganjam, Khurdha, and Jajpur are affected at least once every two years. The districts of Loss of Human Life Dhenkanal, Kendujhar, Sambalpur and Angul are also affected Odisha has experienced eight major cyclones; one during 1971, by cyclones in spite of their interior location because of the two during 1973, one during 1999 (Super Cyclone) and one passage of the cyclone through these districts after their landfall during 2013 (Philin), one during 2014 (Hudhud), two during (Fig.10). 2019 (Fani and Bulbul) and one in 2020 (Amphan) when the Odisha : Cyclone No. of Hazards heaviest human casualty and loss of property occurred. In (1970-2017) Odisha, average annual deaths due to cyclones are 414 during 1970-2016. In 1971, human casualty was 5,307 and during 1999 Super Cyclone it was 9,927. Besides these two years, others like 1982, 1972 and 1989 are also important, when the human casualty figures reached around 202, 130 and 61 respectively. The maximum number of deaths due to cyclones occurred in the month of October followed by November, June and September respectively. Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara districts had suffered the heaviest human casualty during these periods. These are followed by the districts of Cuttack, Puri and Jajpur (Fig.12). The loss of live-stock is also considerably high due to the cyclones which have a significant impact on the agrarian economy of Odisha.

Odisha: Cyclone Human Death (1970-2017)

Fig 11 No. of cyclonic hazards faced by different districts during 1970-2017 in Odisha

In Odisha, nearly seven lakh people are annually affected due to cyclones. It has increased from five lakh during 1970–2000 to eleven lakh during 2001-2017. Although the cyclones are fewer during October, the number of people affected in this month is the largest. Months which witnessed less severe cyclones include June, May and March. The coastal districts of Bhadrak and Cuttack have the largest number of people affected, which varies from 40,000 to 70,000 per year. The other coastal districts of Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Baleswar and the adjoining districts of Khurdha and Jajpur are also affected by cyclones. The number of people affected varies from 20 to 40 thousand. Most of the southern, central and western districts are least affected and people affected per year on an average is less Fig 13 Spatial pattern of loss of human live due to cyclones during 1970-2017 than a thousand (Fig.11). Loss of Property Odisha: Cyclone Population Exposed (1970-2017) The average annual damage to property is around Rs. 662 million. It comprises institutional property worth Rs.234 million, housing property worth Rs. 245 million and crop loss amounting to Rs. 183 million. Most of the property loss due to the cyclones occurred in the major years of cyclone hazards of the state. The property loss is confined to the coastal districts and those adjoining them where the landfall takes place, and normally the fury of the cyclone is felt besides other vulnerable factors (Fig.13). The mean track of the cyclones passes through the districts across the Mahanadi, the Brahmani and the valleys. As a result, the districts of Angul, Sambalpur and Jharsuguda experience a relatively greater property loss in central and western Odisha. In the south, the also records greater property loss as it is affected by the cyclonic disturbances which visit besides that of Odisha. In Odisha, on an average, 39,000 hectares of farm and forest lands were affected every year due to cyclones.The farming and forest area affected due

39450 | P a g e Jitendra Kumar Behera and Gopal Krishna Panda., Vulnerability Analysis of Cyclone Hazards and the Changing Dimensions of Disaster Risk Management in Odisha Along the East Coast of India to cyclones were relatively larger during the 1982, 1983, 1986 Procedure based emergency management following “zero and 1992. casualties” policy towards disaster management. “A record Odisha: Cyclone Property Loss (1970-2017) 1.3m people were evacuated in less than 48 hours, and almost 7,000 kitchens, catering to 9,000 shelters, were made functional overnight with community based disaster preparedness while managing Fani in 2019”8. This mammoth exercise was possible with effective coordination of various stake holders from Government and civil society organizations.

SWOT Analysis of Cyclone Risk Mitigation Programme

The Paradigm Shift in Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation during Cyclone “Fani”

On May 3rd 2020, Cyclone Fani wreaked havoc on the coastal areas of Odisha before moving on to West Bengal and with relatively low intensity. In state of Odisha, where the cyclone’s effects were felt the most, 64 people died while 1.2 million people were evacuated and taken to cyclone shelters. A focus group discussion of some of the key informants from the Government and Non Government sector

revealed some of the strategic interventions, proactive disaster Fig 14 Spatial pattern of property loss due to cyclones in Odisha, 1970-2017 mitigation efforts and people’s participation in achieving

Impact of the major cyclones of the recent past, their date of substantial reduction in the loss of life and property. Cyclone occurrence, associated wind speed, No. of villages affected, Fani made a landfall in an unexpected time of year i.e in the people evacuated, loss of property and human casualty can be early part of May, moved parallel to the coast, causing damage seen from the table below (Table-4) to the coastal districts of Odisha. The state suffered major losses in terms of infrastructure, particularly electrical Table 4 Severe Cyclonic Storms which have affected during infrastructure, housing, public buildings, transport 2000-2020 in Odisha infrastructure, including airports and railway stations, and also

Max No of People Damage to port and harbor although Government of Odisha could wind No.of people Sl. Name of Date of evacuated to Human public speed villages affected No cyclone arrival safer place in casualty properties in in affected in successfully managed to minimize the loss of life, Some of the Lakh Rs. Crores km/h Million 12-15 th oct., 1 Phailin 220 18,374 13.24 9.8 21 9852 key strategies adopted by the disaster mangers to reduce the 2013 9-12 th 2 Hudhud 100 9,657 3,34 2.5 3 4212 oct,2014 loss of life and property are as follows; 3 Titli 9-11 oct.2017 130 8,691 6.03 3.6 59 2779 4 Fani 1-4 may,2019 180 20,367 15. 99 15.57 64 6643 8-10 th 5 Bulbul 80 6,585 3.81 0.1 0 68 nov.2019 Prediction, Warning System, Digital Communication and 18-20 th May, 6 Amphan 165 9,838 4.5 2.0 0 220 20 Last Mile Connectivity

SWOT Analysis of Strategic Interventions in Disaster Risk The cyclone track and its movement were being monitored Reduction: Odisha Model closely by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and it was precisely predicted about where the cyclone will have its Tropical Cyclones are extreme geophysical events of nature landfall and will cross the coast. Odisha government showed a and frequent meteorological phenomena of the tropics. But high degree of preparedness with adequate logistics, manpower however, many of the cyclones turn in to disasters and cause and last mile connectivity through digital communication in several damages to the economies of a region including loss of sensitizing community and could effectively managed to life. Losses from the disasters reduce the pace of sustained evacuate about 1.2 million people with in 48 hrs to the nearby economic development and often lead to heavy drain of the shelters. “Roughly 2.6 million text messages were sent in local domestic resources. In such a situation the disaster management language before cyclone Fani hit, keeping the people likely to is very much an ongoing national requirement, important to the be affected alert” 9. Regular visual media and press briefings Govt. and the public alike. It involves the application of were made by officials to update people of the approaching measures and adoption of strategies to avoid a disaster or to cyclone. People were repeatedly advised over all forms of mass reduce their impact following the disaster management cycle media not to be panic and given clear “do and don’ts.” and SENDAI Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Dissemination of information with a community based empowering the community. In this regard, Government of volunteer network and last mile connectivity and adequate Odisha has taken a number of initiatives to reduce the impact of prepared logistic support helped in the record evacuation of 1.2 such disaster. Recently, the United Nations office for Disaster million people to safe buildings. Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and other organizations have hailed government of Odisha for efficiently handling cyclone Philin, Synergy of Collaboration between National and International Fani and Amphan for which the loss of life and numbers of Agencies affected population has become minimum. This is the result of The World Bank and UNDP has been at the forefront of a very effective strategy of disaster preparedness, quick supporting efforts to reduce vulnerability to cyclone and other response; last mile connectivity in disaster communication, hydro-meteorological hazards of coastal communities in the proactive governance, massive evacuation, Standard Operating coastal states of India and Odisha has been a part of this 39451 | P a g e International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Vol. 11, Issue, 08 (B), pp. 39445-39453, August, 2020 international collaboration. The National Cyclone Risk to become better prepared for future cyclones. The statistics are Mitigation project that started in 2010 was a major intervention striking when compared to the impact of recent big weather in Odisha for capacity building and Community Based Disaster events around the world. “When Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Preparedness and supporting the state government in restoring Rico in 2017 with wind speeds of 175 mph, it caused a death and improving housing and public services in targeted toll of 2,975”11. The same year, Hurricane Harvey struck Texas communities of the state, as well as in increasing capacity to with winds of 130 mph and caused devastating flooding. respond promptly and effectively to crisis or emergencies since “There was $125 billion in damage and at least 68 direct storm- 1999 super Cyclone..By implementing Odisha Disaster related deaths reported in Texas”12. Odisha’s ability to put such Recovery Project and the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation an effective disaster management plan in place and save Program World Bank has made a very concentrated effort in thousands of lives is a template that the world can learn from13. reducing the risk of loss of life due to cyclone hazards. But This, after all, is a state where the per capita income is less than however, minimizing losses in terms of infrastructure and $5 a day. The success is being attributed to the disaster livelihood is still something the state needs to achieve. Early preparedness in terms of construction of about 900 multi- warning system given by the IMD reaches to the state and purpose cyclone shelters in vulnerable locations, setting up of district levels. The World Bank has helped the state to create Disaster Rapid Action Force for search, rescue, incident the intelligence to carry these warnings to the last mile. command system and relief distribution protocols after 1999 Particularly in Odisha, this system was introduced during the super cyclone in managing the disasters. These were Cyclone Mitigation Project and has been used for the past 12 successfully used in managing cyclone Philin in 2013 (a storm years. The World Bank has also been assisting states in creating five times the size of hurricane Katrina), in cyclone shelters and access to these shelters. It has provided 2014, and cyclone Fani and Amphan in 2019. early warning systems and helped governments create early Community Based Disaster Preparedness in Shelter warning dissemination systems. Management Weakness and Opportunities “Community Based Disaster Management (CBDM) approach Disaster mitigation aims at minimizing the loss of lives, which promotes a bottom-up approach working in harmony with the Odisha has been able to achieve adopting and practicing zero top - down approach, to address the challenges and difficulties. casualty approach. But however, risk reduction in the loss of To be effective, local communities must be supported into infrastructure, housing and institutional damages have been a analyzing their hazardous conditions, their vulnerabilities and larger challenge during the disaster. Livelihood restoration in capacities as they see themselves”.14 Odisha has a community the post disaster period has also been a concern in spite of outreach system through which people are being reached on operations of various schemes of livelihood restoration. time. It now has a network of 879 cyclone shelters and there is Statistically, there has been a cyclone every two years or a a robust mechanism for the maintenance of the cyclone major cyclone every four years makes a landfall on the coast of shelters. Each cyclone shelter has a maintenance committee Odisha. Coastal housing in Odisha is still quite vulnerable to where youth have been involved and trained for search and cyclones and heavy rains as 60% of the housing are having rescue, first aid medical attention, and for providing cyclone mud walls and straw thatching. Similarly, the power warnings. Through a network of these shelters and committees infrastructure is completely over-ground, leaving it exposed to and training, the state has involved the entire community; it is the hazards. Disruption of the electrical system also has a now fairly easy to disseminate warnings and move people into cascading effect on health systems, water supply, safe cyclone shelters. The state’s disaster management systems communication and transport, etc. which become even more are monitored twice each year, given the propensity of natural vital during the flood and cyclones for help to reach the most disasters in the state. This is not the first time that a poor state vulnerable. Government of Odisha has the opportunities to like Odisha has managed to successfully evacuate millions of invest in creating safer and resistant infrastructure in the coastal people during a natural disaster; it also did so during Cyclone regions, and in creating electrical systems that are underground. Philin in 2013. Odisha has managed to create a sense of This will not only help minimize the need for evacuation, but community during the disasters by community empowerment also save on the systematic investments that are made when and ownership. household assets are lost during a disaster. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Some Footprints of Disaster Risk Reduction The above analysis of cyclonic data reveals that Odisha coast Fani, a rare summer cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, hit Odisha has been more vulnerable to the cyclones in comparison to coast at Puri on May 03. 2019. As per IMD views it is one of other coastal states. Along the Odisha coast the cyclonic the strongest cyclones to have hit India in the last 20 years with activities of devastating nature are confined to the pre and post a wind speed of 125 mph which could blew off roofs, damaged monsoon months of May and October. Since 2000 the although power lines, and uprooted countless trees in the districts of there is a general declining of no. of disturbances, the Puri, Khurda and adjoining areas. But Odisha has been frequency and magnitude of cyclones seems to have increased successful in keeping the loss of life and numbers of affected as indicated by the observations of the IPCC in view of global people to a minimum because of its effective strategy of warming. The coastal districts are found most vulnerable disaster preparedness and quick response. 64 people lost their although the cyclonic damages are experienced in the interior lives due to the devastating cyclone Fani which could have districts. It has also been observed that 60% of the dwellings in been much more. “ (which had 155 mph the coastal districts are of mud and bamboo walls and straw winds) killed 9,658 people and caused $2.5 billion damages in thatching which are no match to the wind speed of the storms the state”10. It was this super cyclone in 1999 that led the state 39452 | P a g e Jitendra Kumar Behera and Gopal Krishna Panda., Vulnerability Analysis of Cyclone Hazards and the Changing Dimensions of Disaster Risk Management in Odisha Along the East Coast of India and severe storms. Thus coastal housing infrastructure has been 6. ISDR. “Living with risk-focus on disaster risk most vulnerable besides the standing crops of the coastal zone. reduction”. In:Living with Risk: A Global Review of After 1999 super cyclone Odisha’s trials and tribulations in Disaster Reduction Initiatives.New York,UN;2004:6-12. disaster risk reduction and community resilience has been a 7. Rajasekhar M, Kishtawal C,Prasad MYS et al. successful endeavor as per the Sendai Framework suggested by “Extended Range Tropical Cyclone Predictions for East the International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction. The key Coast of India”. In: Mohanty UC, Mohapatra M, Singh factors of success in disaster management which can be OP, et al.Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical followed from the Odisha model are adequate relief Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate infrastructure, logistic support and trained man power, standard Change.2014:137-148. operating procedure and relief distribution protocols, incident 8. Special Relief Commissioner, Revenue & Disaster command system, accurate early warning and dissemination Management Department, Government of Odisha. system with last mile connectivity, effective coordination of Memorandum on extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm various stake holders and above all a proactive governance. Fani.2019:28-52. Community based disaster preparedness has also been another 9. https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/odisha-cops-save- milestone achieved Odisha for successful mitigation of the 1.2-million-lives-=in-cyclone-fani-and--internet-cant- disasters and building community resilience in the society sto-of-bengal-thinking-them-2128525.html https://www.weahistory.of.cyclones.in.bay.ther.com/in- Acknowledgement IN/india/news/2019-05- This paper is a part of my research work carried out at the 10. 02.history.ofcyclones.in.bay-of-bengal-deadliest- Dept. of Geography of Utkal University, Bhubaneswar with the cyclone-in.record.killed Junior Research Scholarship from the Council of Scientific and 11. https://www.adition.cnn.com/2018/08/28/health/puerto- Industrial Research (CSIR), . I am grateful and rico-gw-report-excess-deaths/index.html. sincerely acknowledge the financial support in terms of 12. https://www.adition.cnn.com/2013/05/13/world/americas research fellowship of CSIR for this study. /hurricane-statstics-fast-facts/index.html. 13. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/world/asia/cyclon References e-fani-india-evaluations.html.

1. Mishra SP. and Panigrahi R. Storm impact on south 14. Shaw R and Okazaki K. Sustainable community based Odisha coast. International Journal of Advance Research disaster management practices in Asia-A user’s in Science and Engineering.2014; 3:209-215. guide.United Nations Centre for Regional Development: 2. Sarkhel P., Biswas D. and Swain SS. A Review of Japan;2004:4-45 Cyclone and its Impact on the Coastal Belts of Odisha. 15. Special Relief Commissioner , Revenue & Disaster International Journal of Engineering Research & Management Department ,Government of Odisha. Technology. 2019;8(5):759-762. Memorandum on the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 3. Frank NL. and Husain SA. Deadliest tropical cyclone in hudhud 2014,pp.20-22. history. Bulletin American meteorological society.1971; 52 (6):438–444. 4. Pine John C. “Introduction to Hazard analysis”.In: Natural hazard analysis- Reducing the impact of disasters.CRC Press:New York;2008:1-24 5. Organisation of American states.“Incorporating natural hazard management into the development planning process”.In: Primer on natural hazard management in integrated regional development planning. https://www.oas.org/dsd/publications/Unit/oea66e/ch01. htm#chapter1

How to cite this article:

Jitendra Kumar Behera and Gopal Krishna Panda.2020, Vulnerability Analysis of Cyclone Hazards and the Changing Dimensions of Disaster Risk Management in Odisha Along the East Coast of India. Int J Recent Sci Res. 11(08), pp. 39445- 39453. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24327/ijrsr.2020.1108.5505

*******

39453 | P a g e