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Migration As an Adaptation to Climate Change in Mahanadi Delta

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Migration As an Adaptation to Climate Change in Mahanadi Delta Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change in Mahanadi Delta Shouvik Das, Sugata Hazra* , Tuhin Ghosh*, Somnath Hazra, and Amit Ghosh (*Presenting Authors) School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, India Abstract Number: ABSSUB-989 Adaptation Future 2016, Rotterdam, Netherlands Introduction Study Area Socio-Economic Profile • Agriculture and fishery sectors of natural resource based The Decadal Variation in Population Since 1901 Map of India economy of deltas are increasingly becoming unprofitable due to 2,500,000 Climate Change. Bhadrak 2,000,000 Kendrapara • This results in large scale labour migration, in absence of Jagatsinghapur 1,500,000 alternative livelihood option in the Mahanadi delta, Odisha, Mahanadi Delta Khordha Odisha: 270 persons per sq. km. 1,000,000 Puri India: 382 persons per sq. km. India. Population Total • Labour migration increased manifold in the coastal region of 500,000 Odisha in the aftermath of super cyclones of 1999 and 2013. - 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 Year 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 • The present research discusses whether migration can be 30 Population Growth Rate (%), 2001-2011 considered as an adaptation option when the mainstay of 20 Odisha: 14.05% livelihood, i.e. agriculture is threatened by repeated flooding, sea 10 0 level rise, cyclone and storm surges, salinization of soil and crop (%) Rate Growth Bhadrak Kendrapara Jagatsinghapur Khordha Puri 1% failure due to temperature stress imposed by climate change. 5% Malkangiri 205 9% Koraput 170 26% 157 5% Methodology Rayagada 146 Kalahandi 127 Nuapada 123 Mahanadi Delta • Migration has been analysed in the context of climate change Balangir 122 14% using the concept of risk, represented as probability of Subarnapur 121 38% • Mahanadi Delta is drained by a network of three Baudh 105 occurrence of hazardous events, degree of vulnerability of the major rivers: Mahanadi, Brahmhani and Baitarani Kandhamal 103 Annual Index of Real Per 2% Gajapati 97 Year: 2001 Capita NDDP, Ganjam 96 area as well as migration analysis using the indirect methods into the Bay of Bengal. 2010-11 Distribution of Total Workers Puri 96 (Per Capita Real NSDP = (vital statistics and census survival ratio). • The coastline of the delta is about 200 km long Khordha 91 Main workers as 100) Cultivators • The methodological framework of Risk Assessment has been Nayagarh 91 Year: 2011 which stretches from south near Chilika to north Anugul 90 Main workers as Dhenkanal 89 1% Agricultural Labourers designed by analyzing the term vulnerability in terms of 9% up to Dhamra River. Jajapur 81 Main workers as Cuttack 81 21% sensitivity and adaptive capacity (IPCC AR5) with an equal • Using SRTM 30m digital surface elevation data, Household Workers Jagatsingh… 81 12% weightage to the components and GIS overlay . area within 5m contour from the coast line has Kendrapara 81 Main workers as Other Bhadrak 80 4% Workers Risk (R) = f [Hazard (H), Exposure (E), Vulnerability (V)] Baleshwar 80 13% been extracted within the vicinity of Mahanadi Marginal workers as Mayurbhanj 78 Cultivators (IPCC AR5, 2014) delta . Kendujhar 74 Sundargarh 73 Marginal workers as or, Risk (R) = f [Hazard (H), Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S), • The total study area is 13137.679 Sq. Km. The 37% Agricultural Labourers Debagarh 72 Mahanadi Delta, a socio-economically backward Sambalpur 68 3% Adaptive Capacity (AC)] 5m contour spread across 45 Blocks of Khordha, Marginal workers as Jharsuguda 65 region, has emerged as a key sending region of migrant Cultivators have been Household Workers • The estimation of Net Migration (the difference of in-migration Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara and Bhadrak Bargarh 61 Marginal workers as Other labours to different parts of India and also abroad. 0 50 100 150 200 250 transformed to Marginal and out-migration of an area in a period of time) has been done Workers districts. Chilika lake falls within 5m contour Index of Percapita Income Workers. Data Source: Census of India (2001 & 2011), Economic using indirect method, in absence of data on place of birth and line. **NDDP = Net District Domestic Product, NSDP = Net State Domestic Product Survey 2014-15, District Statistical Handbook 2011 place of enumeration. • The average estimation of Census Survival Ratio method at Conceptual Framework : Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Migration Scenario district level and Vital Statistics method at block (sub-district) Change • Migration over past several decades in Mahanadi Delta has taken place level have been applied to estimate the net migration of the Demographic Change Climate Change Natural Hazards for survival and livelihood opportunities. study area. • Population Size/Density • Change in Temperature • Frequency & Intensity of • Intra-State migration is common whereas inter-state migration is mostly • Population Structure • Change in Rainfall Cyclones found for migrant labours. Risk Assessment • Sex Ratio • late arrival of monsoon • Flood Frequency • Coastal Erosion • The number of male migrants dominates over female migrants. • The age of the migrants ranged from 15-40 in the case of male and 26-40 Change in land use & Land cover Economic Change Change in Production Willing Migration • Per capita Income • Changes in Agricultural area in the case of female migrants. • Work Participation • Increase in Urban areas • The migrants mostly belong to Below Poverty line ($ 1.25 per day per Rate • Land degradation person, World Bank, 2008) category, have low level of literacy, are small DECISION High Risk Blocks Migrate or marginal landowners and mostly unskilled. In-situ adaptation Autonomous/ Planned Stay or Migrate 1.Dhamnagar, Net Migration Analysis 2.Tihidi, Change in Livelihood options 3.Bhadrak, Distress Migration Three districts namely Bhadrak, 4.Basudebpur, Change in Income(+/--) Trapped Population 5.Chandabali, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur 6.Rajnagar, • Rapid-onset events like cyclones or floods have the potential to cause show negative net migration for 7.Marsaghai, female population. Bhadrak district 8.Garadpur, considerable damage to infrastructure and property, as well as resulting in loss 9.Balikuda, of life, and are therefore often associated with distress migration. only shows negative net migration for 10.Ersama • Slow-onset changes like erosion, salinization, water scarcity/drought often total and male population stimulate permanent displacement as a first-order household adaptation. They Khordha district ranks first (7.23%) in Multi-Hazard Parameters: may, however, initiate as temporary migration as a short-term adaptation. Flood Frequency positive net migration followed by Frequency & Intensity of Cyclones Puri (3.01%). Negligible in-migration Census Survival Method Coastal & Riverine Erosion can also be seen at Kendrapara (0.13%) and Jagatsinghpur (0.06%) IPCC AR 5 Contributing Factors Exposure • Risk induced migration : From the particularly for male population. 1 0.8 Dhamnagar block level (sub-district) risk and 0.6 Tihidi migration analysis, it has been The migrants moved to urban areas 0.4 Chandabali 0.2 Basudebpur observed that several coastal blocks like Puri, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack etc. Hazard 0 Sensitivity Marshaghai Bhadrak which are adversely affected by for better job opportunities and social Balikuda Rajnagar climate change and low level of well-being. Garadpur economic growth exhibit higher risk Vital Statistics Method Adaptive High Risk Blocks and high rate of out-migration. Capacity Blocks with Negative Dhamnagar, Ersama, Balikuda, Tihidi Net Migration Exposure Low Risk Blocks blocks are bio-physically and socio- 1.2 1. Dhamnagar 1 Satyabadi 0.8 Kakatpur economically at very high risk where 2. Tihidi 0.6 0.4 Delanga out migration dominates. 3. Rajkanika 0.2 Tangi 4. Aul 0 Brahmagiri • On the other hand, several blocks of Hazard -0.2 Sensitivity 5. Kendrapara Astaranga comparatively lower risk like Gop 6. Derabisi Kanas Khordha, Puri districts or other urban 7. Marsaghai Puri Krushnaprasad growth centres show positive net 8. Garadpur 9. Kujang Adaptive migration or in- migration. Capacity 10. Balikuda In Situ Adaptation Activities 11. Astarang Adaptation Infographic 12. Nimapada Road construction including earthwork, concrete pavement, metalling, 13. Satyabadi construction of box cell bridge pair casting, earthen embankment construction Key Findings of Focus Group Discussions Mangrove restoration and mangrove fisheries implementation by the • The economy is largely agriculture based which are being increasingly community at different parts with help of NGOs generating alternative affected by frequent floods, cyclones, salinization etc. and lack of livelihood. Satabhaya GP transportation facilities/markets . Programme on vegetable garden management, nutrition, income and self- • The repeated crop loss and lack of returns from existing livelihood are reliance in selective areas. forcing them to take up jobs in construction industry outside the state. • Preferred destinations: Internal destinations are Chennai, Gujarat, Tamil Construction of Cyclone shelters with the help of World Bank, State Govt., Nadu and Kerala and International destinations are Qatar, Saudi Arabia Red Cross and other NGOs and Dubai. Programme on clean water, sanitation and hygiene facilities (provision of • A lot of women who have school education are now going to Puri, community latrines, bathing cubicles), hand pump repair and chlorination, and in Bhubaneswar for work in small industry. Cyclone affected villages of Odisha. • Contractors and Early migrants provide
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