Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Department of Primary Industries Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria Report: 47 June 9, 2005 Some areas of the Mallee have good stored soil moisture. The early emergence of this dry sown wheat is cause for cheer. (May 2005) Source: E. Ryan Environmental Indicators Rainfall May 2005 was exceptionally warm and dry across Victoria, with the State experiencing its driest May in at least 70 years. All districts except East Gippsland are decile 1. Mean maximum temperatures across the state were 1 to 3°C above average and the minimums were 3 to 6°C above average across most of Victoria. This autumn was the driest on record for much of Victoria and drier than average across most of Australia with the exception of Western Australia and some parts of Queensland. The Bureau of Meteorology’s 36-month decile map shows the consistency of the dry conditions over the last 3-years. The chance of an El Niño event occurring this year is still assessed at between 30 and 50%. The Southern Oscillation Index for the end of May was –14.5. Minimal rain had fallen to 9am Wednesday June 8th (Figure 1), although there were falls up to 15 mm across North and Central Victoria on Wednesday night. A much anticipated low pressure system will move across Victoria over the next few days. DSC Report 1 Figure 1. Victorian Rainfall 1st to 8th June 2005 National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Water storages GWM Water will commence the winter channel run to fill dams in the Wimmera and Southern Mallee this weekend. The winter run continues until October and will fill one dam per 400 ha of property, the same as for 2004. Water for these areas is supplied only once a year so customers will need to use their restricted supply efficiently. The Tungamah pipeline project was launched on June 7th to replace the existing inefficient domestic and stock channel system delivering water to Tungamah in North East Victoria. The pipeline will save 4,800 ML currently diverted from the Broken River and supply 50% of the savings needed to decommission Lake Mokoan. The project will commence later this year and be completed in time for the 2007/08 season. The Eastern Irrigation Scheme to deliver about 5,000 million litres of Class A recycled water each year to the Cranbourne-Five Ways area for the irrigation of market gardens, golf courses and Cranbourne racecourse was launched on May 31st. Over 70 vegetable growers in the Werribee Irrigation District commenced using recycled water from the Western Treatment Plant earlier this year. Currently 4,100 million litres are being used with 8,500 million litres the target. Storage Change in Capacity Storage Change in Capacity last 3 weeks 6/6/05 last 3 weeks 6/6/05 Goulburn Basin 0% 26% Thomson/ LaTrobe Basin -2% 50% Broken Basin -1% 28% Werribee Basin -2% 33% Campaspe Basin 0% 10% Glenelg/ Wimmera Basin -1% 10% Loddon Basin -2% 27% Maribyrnong 0% 14% Upper Murray Basin 2% 36% Barwon Storage -2% 57% Ovens Basin -11% 28% Source: http://www.fishvictoria.com/pnews/water_levels.php Fire Dry conditions are persisting and consequently fires are continuing to occur. There have been 628 wild fires that have burnt 32,839 ha for the fire season. The number is slightly ahead of the 30-year average. Fuel reduction burning is tapering off as conditions become too moist, particularly at higher elevations and south of the divide. The trend for the next fire season is not favourable. Social Indicators DPI Drought Hotline The DPI / DSE Customer Service Centre received 28 drought related contacts for the period 16th May to 6th June 2005. Queries included Exceptional Circumstances (12), carted water rebate (6), DHS – drought recovery program (3), drought feeding of cattle and sheep (3), rural counsellors (2) and one each for the the Utility Relief Grant Scheme and general information. The contacts were from the North West (7), South West (6), North East DSC Report 2 (5), Gippsland (3) and Port Philip (3). They were completed by FAQ (20), referred (3) transferred (3), and information sent (2). Drought financial assistance Rural Finance Corporation reports 2,575 applications for the Exceptional Circumstances Interest Subsidy have been received to date with 2,002 approved and 427 declined so far. Total value of the subsidies approved is $34,325,306 with an average of $17,111. Dryland farmers in the Mallee and Northern Wimmera and dairy farmers in the Murray Irrigation were both granted full Exceptional Circumstances support on June 3rd. Farmers in these areas have been eligible for six- month’s income support since their applications were granted prima-facie support one and two months ago respectively. The success of this application means growers can apply for interest payment subsidies as well as income support for up to two years. On May 30th the Prime Minister announced the Australian Government’s new drought assistance package with changes to drought relief with key features detailed below. One of the main changes will be the higher threshold for the assets and income tests which should enable access to support for farmers who were previously ineligible. Also important is the review of areas where EC support has recently lapsed. In Victoria these are the Central and North East. • The off-farm assets for EC business support (interest rate subsidies) will be doubled from $217,500 to $435,000. • The rate of the interest rate subsidy provided to farmers in receipt of business support assistance will rise from 50 per cent to 80 per cent for subsidies paid in the second and subsequent years of an EC declaration. • Subject to the passage of enabling legislation, from 1 July 2005 to 30 June 2006 a $10,000 annual offset against the income test for the EC Relief “income support”. The measure will be reviewed before June 2006 to determine if the prevailing drought conditions and outlook warrant any extension. • The streamlined re-assessment process for those EC declared areas nearing the end of their second year of assistance will become a permanent feature of EC arrangements. In the first instance, the 11 areas where EC declarations are due to cease by the end of 2005 will be assessed as a matter of priority. • National Rural Advisory Council (NRAC) will immediately review the status for those 22 EC regions that it did not previously recommend for a roll-over under the streamlined EC assessment process. NRAC will also be able to consider the roll-over of parts of EC declared regions with any revised boundaries to be developed in consultation with industry, state and territory governments. • Nearly $800,000 in additional funds will be provided to rural financial counselling services and $1.2 million will be provided to appoint ten additional counsellors in key areas affected by the drought. Rural Financial Counselling report The Premier, Steve Bracks, announced an extra $570,000 funding for three general and three financial counsellors to continue their work with local rural communities, whilst on tour of the North West on May 30th. The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey (30th May) shows rural confidence has hit a near three-year low. The dry conditions around much of the country are negatively influencing sentiment. Lower commodity prices and high input prices are also major concerns. Dairy farmers remain the most confident, in contrast to all other sectors. Investment intentions and income expectations have also declined. Despite the fall in confidence, farmers in Victoria continue to be the most confident in the nation. The survey shows 37% of Victorian primary producers expect the agricultural economy to improve in the next 12 months, down from 45% in the previous quarter. And 23% expect conditions to worsen during the year, compared with 18% with that view previously. North East: Increased pressure on farmers now buying in fodder for the winter, particularly since exceptional circumstances funding was not rolled over for the third year. Farmers looking for re-assessment by NRAC. Farm succession is an increasing issue. Northern Irrigation: Anticipate low milk production over the winter. Farmers still require more information and resources on alternative land uses and farming. An ongoing issue is affordable and available health care including psychologists and counsellors. Central: A number of new clients are accessing financial counselling services for information on EC applications, and extending bank credit. Have also been supplying information on succession planning. The extended dry is seeing many farmers in a precarious position. Rural businesses are suffering with the prolonged dry period. Mallee: The CWA sponsored a suicide prevention seminar in Charleton, conducted by Lifeforce, with over 60 attendees. DSC Report 3 Economic Indicators Commodity prices and movements ABARE’s Australian Crop Report for June 7th 2005 forecasts a significantly reduced area and production of winter crops in 2005-06 due to lack of rainfall and poor seasonal prospects in the eastern states and South Australia. The total area sown to winter crops in Australia is forecast to be down by 8% to just under 18 million hectares in 2005-06 and the assumed poor seasonal conditions is expected to result in forecast winter crop production of around 26 million tonnes in 2005-06, down 17% on the 2004-05 season. In Victoria, the area sown to winter crops is forecast to fall by 14% to 2.4 million hectares in 2005-06. Production is expected to decline across all crops with wheat down 17% to 1.7 million tonnes, barley down 9% to 998,000t and canola to decline sharply by 41% to 234,000t. Good quality hay is scarce and prices have increased, but not as much as in 2002.