Report: 38 November 11, 2004

Some wheat crops in the Wimmera have been cut for hay because of heat and frost damage to heads (November 2004). Source: K. Hollaway

Executive Summary

• Heavy rainfall across the north and central regions in early November had a dramatic impact on the figures, but was too late for most crops in the Mallee and many in the Wimmera and northern districts. • There have been few and only small increases in irrigation allocations following the dry October, however with catchments now wet there could be good run-off during November if we get more rain. • The media is dominated by reports of rainfall coming too late for the North West, and the use of the word “drought” increased significantly over October. • The rising Australian Dollar is impacting on crop prices, and quality downgradings are evident in early grain receivals in Victoria and South Australia. • The regions are concerned about the potential for soil loss through runoff in Gippsland and wind erosion following cultivation in the North West, as well as poor crop harvests in the North West.

DSC Report 1 Environmental Indicators

Weather

Deciles for the month of October are decile 1 across the west and parts of the north and decile 2–3 across most of the rest of the state. A BOM media release (1st Nov) stated that the monthly average temperatures for October were generally 2ºC warmer than the long-term averages across the state.

In November widespread rain finally fell across the state (Figure 1). The north and central parts of the state received between 80 and 300% of their average November rainfall in those 10 days. This was too late for most crops in the Mallee and many in the Wimmera and northern districts.

More rain is predicted with flood warnings for the Yarra River and flood watch current for the West and South Gippsland, Greater Melbourne, North East Victoria and the Goulburn and Broken Basins.

The Southern Oscillation Index for October was –4.

Figure 1. Victorian rainfall (mm) Month to date 1st to 10th November 2004

National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology

Water storages

Goulburn-Murray Water has updated water allocations for the 2004/05 season- Goulburn 90% (up from 86% on October 15th) and Campaspe 18% (up from 12%). All other irrigation allocations in the state are unchanged.

Storage Change in Capacity Storage Change in Capacity last 3 weeks 5/11/04 last 3 weeks 5/11/04 Goulburn Basin -2% 44% Thomson/ LaTrobe Basin 0% 59% Broken Basin -1% 40% Werribee Basin 0% 23% Campaspe Basin -1% 18% Glenelg/ Wimmera Basin -1% 15% Loddon Basin 0% 38% Maribyrnong 0% 8% Upper Murray Basin -2% 48% Barwon Storage -3% 77% Ovens Basin 11% 100% Source: Stock and Land, The Weekly Times and Barwon Water

Fire

There were 18 wildfires in the fortnight to 5th November, burning 146 ha, mainly as a result of two lightning caused fires – a 100 ha fire at Peechelba and a 40 ha fire in the upper Wonnangatta, north of Dargo. For the season there have been 81 wildfires that have burnt 1247 ha. This number of fires is already about 8% above average for this time of year. Lightning activity has been well above normal.

DSC Report 2 Locusts

Good rainfall across the north of the state in early November is expected to initiate hatching of dormant locust eggs from mid-November onwards. Reports of hoppers would be expected from about the 21st of November. Prior to this rain there had been three reports of hoppers in the north central region (north west of Strathmerton). The risk of night migration to Victoria is increasing. In NSW over 9,300 hatching sites have been reported. If conditions are suitable for migratory flight hoppers could make their way down from NSW over the latter half of November. The central area is most likely to be affected. Hoppers need to be controlled by landholders while they are on the ground in bands. Once they start to fly, aerial spraying in Victoria is limited by the need for buffer zones of 1.5 km around houses, crops, waterways and native lands. Social Indicators

DPI / DSE Drought Hotline The DPI / DSE Customer Service Centre received six drought related contacts for the month of October 2004. Two were completed by FAQ, two had information sent and two were referred. The majority of contacts (three) were from the North West.

Drought financial assistance

Rural Finance reports 2,031 applications for the Exceptional Circumstances Interest Subsidy 2002/03 have been received to date with 1,633 approved and 320 declined so far. Total value of the subsidies approved is $27,843,864 with an average of $17,051.

An application is currently being prepared for Murray Irrigation System.

Rural Financial Counselling report

Farmers in Gippsland are experiencing a reasonable season, but not good enough to alleviate the debts incurred over the last couple of years. Average debt in the Macalister Irrigation District has increased by $100,000 per dairy farmer ($2000 per cow) from last year.

Farmers in the Campaspe are starting to question the future of the region and their ability to stay in farming. Concerns are being raised about the White Paper on Water and the future pricing from Goulburn Murray Water. Some farmers must now make a choice between selling, leasing or changing enterprises. Family and relationship issues are starting to emerge.

Morale in the Wimmera has fallen in the last few weeks. Farmers face bigger losses in 2004, than in 2002, due to much higher input costs. Some younger farmers who have only experienced drier than average conditions are questioning their desire to continue in the industry. The first case of bank pressure to sell land to reduce debt has been applied to a Rural Financial Counselling customer who was debt free three years ago. In other instances banks are not extending funding.

Sunraysia grape growers will require extra counselling support due to contract disputes and water reform.

Kerang staff are under pressure with farmers’ morale at a very low level. Media and Communication

Media releases 22 Oct 2004 – New Fire headquarters open ahead of fire season. The Acting Premier and Environment Minister John Thwaites today opened a new Emergency Co-ordination Centre ahead of the coming fire season. 27 Oct 2004 – Rainfall welcome but October still below average. Melbourne’s four major catchments received between 27 mm and 43 mm of rain in the last 30 hours. Traditionally, September and October are our wettest months, however this October we are still below average rainfall for the month in the catchments.

DSC Report 3 29 Oct 2004 – Bracks Government extends rural counsellor funding. Extended funding for three Rural Counsellors in northern Victoria to help communities cope with ongoing dry conditions until June next year. The communities are Ouyen, Kerang and Kyabram/Campaspe. A new Rural Financial Counsellor Resource Manual has also been launched. 3 Nov 2004 – Federal EC Roll over expected soon. The Federal Government has raised expectations that Exceptional Circumstances (EC) drought support for the dairy farmers in the Campaspe, Goulburn and Loddon irrigation areas will be continued, the Agriculture Minister, Bob Cameron, said today. 8 Nov 2004 - Melbourne's rainfall trend: No news is good news? The Bureau of Meteorology says while this is the first time Melbourne has experienced seven years of below-normal rainfall, it is within the range of natural variability

Media headlines Weather • Skies open up but it’s too late Weekly Times 10/11 - The common lament among farmers as the skies opened up in the past week and delivered some of the best falls across south-east Australia in a year: too late. Farming and agriculture • Dairy farm dilemmas Country News 25/10 - An ageing population, concerns about water security, milk prices and general disillusionment are continuing to drive more dairy farmers from the industry at an accelerated rate initially spurred by the drought. • ABC Regional Radio Country Hour Rural News 1/11 – Poor weather leads to grain shortage from SA with high levels of screenings and pinched wheat expected. Quotes AWB in Kadina. • ABC VICTORIAN REGIONAL Victorian Country Hour 12:16PM 8/11 - Presenter interviews Greg Toll, Gunbower landholder, and Dr Malcolm Campbell, Victorian Department of Primary Industries, about recent rain which has brought on thousands of locust hatchlings throughout his dry land lucerne. Drought • Rain too little and too late Wimmera Mail Times 3/11 - A devastating harvest outlook has left disappointed and bewildered farmers pondering whether it will be worth the cost of running a header over crops to harvest seed for 2005. Dry seasonal conditions tour • ABC MILDURA SWAN HILL Radio News 12:30PM 5/11 - Ian Hastings, Victorian Farmers Federation, is guiding the Victorian Department of Primary Industries on a tour of drought-affected areas in the Wimmera Mallee and north central Victoria. • Rain is too late Swan Hill Guardian 8/11 – Fresh bid for drought aid. One of the Mallee’s biggest single rains for the year arrived just as government representatives toured the region inspecting the region’s drought affected crops. • Irrigators outline their position Campaspe News 9/11 – Government support should reflect the devastating effect a one-in-112 year drought and consecutive dry years was having on Campaspe farmers, the state’s head drought response officer heard on Friday. • Aid plea over dry Weekly Times 10/11 - Farmers have listed social recovery funding, monetary support and the threats of ballooning input costs as key issues as they face low crop yields north of the Divide. • Crops tell a sad tale as nature plays its hand Weekly Times 10/11 - DPI drought response manager Kimberley Dripps has been sourcing information on the situation farmers face following another disappointing year. • Plea for help Wimmera Mail Times 10/11 - Wimmera leaders and farmers have urged State Government officials to impress on Minister Cameron the need for ongoing help after disappointing October weather devastated crops across a wide area. Fire • Early fire season alert for Victoria Weekly Times 27/10 – Victorians face an early fire season as pastures brown off in response to a dry October, on the back of eight years of below average rainfall. Economic Indicators

Commodity prices and movements

Prices are down as the Australian Dollar goes over US 70c. Graincorp 2004-05 barley pool is $210/t for malt 1 grade and wheat pool is $200/t for APW1. Good harvests in North America are expected to put pressure on prices. Crop yields are expected to be down with high screenings in harvestable crops in the North West. Wheat and barley already received at Yelta and Robinvale has been of poor size, weight and protein content, with high screenings. Limited barley is making malt grade. The South Australian harvest, which is ahead of Victoria, has also reported high levels of screenings.

DSC Report 4 Young lamb numbers have increased because prices are still good and the dry conditions have prevented sellers from holding stock. Cattle prices are stable. Hay prospects are down following a generally dry season and now widespread rain has fallen during harvest. Rain when hay was on the ground has downgraded quality particularly in the Elmore region, but also in the West Wimmera and Western District.

Commodity prices This Week Last Week Last Month Last Year Wheat APW pool 1 189.05 214.48 214.48 Wheat APW cash 1 190 200 190 Malting barley 1 174 170 170 Feed barley 1 158 165 155 Feed oats 1 120 120 120 Field peas 1 240 250 260 Canola (42% oil) 1 320 340 334

Yearling steers (C3 180-220 kg) 2 345 330 374 334 Bullocks (C4 340-420 kg) 2 340 325 339 314 Cows (D3 180-260 kg) 2 297 293 297 272 Lambs (16-20 kg) 2 348 341 359 367 Sheep (18-24 kg) 2 174 154 196 210

Old pasture hay (Bairnsdale $/t) 2 75 75 70

Water rights (Greater Goulburn $/ML) 3 80.25 90 75.25 95

Grains are Portland cash price (except for APW pool) Stock prices are ¢/kg cwt Sources: 1 Weekly Times 2 Stock and Land 3 www.watermove.com.au Regional Reports

There are no drought related issues in the South West, West Gippsland or Port Phillip. Mallee A warm October finished off crops. April-October growing season rainfall was decile 1-3 depending on location. Rainfall of 25-50 mm in early November was too late for most crops. Harvest had just started when the rain came. Barley received so far is poor quality. There is a soil erosion risk with earlier than usual cultivation and the expected cultivation to follow summer weeds germinating on this rain. Wimmera The Wimmera was decile 1 to the end of October with 20-30 mm rain in early November. Many crops stopped growing in October and November’s rain was too late for the majority of crops. Hay may be downgraded by rain. Ploughed crops will have implications for soil retention over summer. North Central Low rainfall in October followed by double average rains in early November. Most crops stopped growing in October, but rains will benefit some. Half of the hay crops had been cut before the rain, but may be damaged on the ground. Northern Irrigation Minimal rain in October with little run-off into dams. Crop, hay and silage yields will be low. The Campaspe irrigation system is still a concern. Recent rains led to an additional 5% allocation bringing the total to 18%. Dairy milk production is up on last year (7.7%) but still well below two years ago (-9.9%). Gippsland Hay is being cut but expect volume to be down. Silage production is good. Some pastures will benefit from rain although many pastures have already dried off or are going to seed. There is concern about recent wind erosion

DSC Report 5 of bare paddocks and potential for soil erosion in catchments recovering from fire if run-off follows this rain. Dam levels in the Tambo Valley remain very low. North East Well below average rainfall in October. Silage production is down to 25-50% of normal. Hay making is currently in progress, but will be caught by this rain.

DPI response

Drought related activities held this month Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Irrigation • Horsham, Wallup, Ouyen, Swan Hill, Lalbert, Beauchamp, Pyramid Hill and Rochester in the Campaspe hosted a visit by Dry Seasonal Conditions Response Manager, Kimberley Dripps and Policy Analyst, Leanne Browne.

Local workshops planned Wimmera • Nov 26th – DPI Drought Service Providers Forum, Horsham. To fully inform all Government agencies, organisations, local government and other groups involved with drought response of the current and predicted impacts of the current seasonal conditions. The forum is also an opportunity to coordinate any drought activities and information sessions. Northern Irrigation • Discussions have commenced between DPI, Shire of Campaspe, and GV Agcare (rural counsellors) regarding a family day for irrigators on the Campaspe system to be held in early December.

Compiled & edited by Katherine Hollaway, and proofed by Drought Operations & Communication Managers.

DSC Report 6