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APAC Retail and Property Deutsche Bank Markets Research Industry Date APAC Retail and 13 December 2017 Property Asia Pacific Retail Real Estate Real Estate Retail Joy Wang Anne Ling Research Analyst Research Analyst (+65 ) 6423 5958 (+852 ) 2203 6177 [email protected] [email protected] Emily Smith Michael Simotas Research Analyst Research Analyst (+61) 2 8258-2297 (+61) 2 8258-1543 [email protected] [email protected] Jeffrey Gao, CFA Takahiro Kazahaya, CMA Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6256 (+81) 3 5156-6983 [email protected] [email protected] Jason Ching, CFA Jihyun Song Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6205 (+82) 2 316 8906 [email protected] [email protected] Yoji Otani, CMA Jeremy Kim Research Analyst Research Analyst (+81) 3 5156-6756 (+82) 2 316 8902 F.I.T.T. for investors [email protected] [email protected] Chien-Fie Man Retail and retail real estate - winning Research Analyst (+65 ) 6423 6897 the e-commerce game [email protected] APAC is better positioned The rise of e-commerce has redefined shopping and revolutionised both retailing and retail real estate development strategies. We have witnessed meaningful negative implications brought on by the age of online shopping in the U.S. (please refer to US FITT report “Cleaning out the closet: A Retail and Real Estate Makeover?”). In this report, we examine the implications for APAC region, identifying the winning traits and potential survivors of this structural change. We believe APAC, which hosts five of the top ten most attractive retail markets globally, is better positioned to weather this challenge. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Distributed on: 12/12/2017 21:00:0019:23:00 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Pacific Industry Date 13 December 2017 Retail APAC Retail and Real Estate Property FITT Research Real Estate Retail Retail and retail real estate - winning Joy Wang Anne Ling Research Analyst Research Analyst the e-commerce game (+65 ) 6423 5958 (+852 ) 2203 6177 APAC is better positioned [email protected] [email protected] The rise of e-commerce has redefined shopping and revolutionised both retailing and retail real estate development strategies. We have witnessed Emily Smith Michael Simotas meaningful negative implications brought on by the age of online shopping in Research Analyst Research Analyst the U.S. (please refer to US FITT report “Cleaning out the closet: A Retail and (+61) 2 8258-2297 (+61) 2 8258-1543 Real Estate Makeover?”). In this report, we examine the implications for APAC [email protected] [email protected] region, identifying the winning traits and potential survivors of this structural change. We believe APAC, which hosts five of the top ten most attractive retail markets globally, is better positioned to weather this challenge. Jeffrey Gao, CFA Takahiro Kazahaya, CMA Research Analyst Research Analyst Retail: converging trend, diverging pace Structural issues such as consumption upgrades, technological advancement (+852 ) 2203 6256 (+81) 3 5156-6983 and cyclical trends are pulling APAC’s offline brands/retailers in varying [email protected] [email protected] directions. Consumers in China and S Korea are fully embracing online, with those in Singapore and HK lagging, while Japan and Australia are moving at a Jason Ching, CFA Jihyun Song tepid pace as preference for offline retail remains high. Consequently, retailers Research Analyst Research Analyst in China and Korea need to be proactive by adopting an integrated (+852 ) 2203 6205 (+82) 2 316 8906 online/offline strategy in order to stay relevant, while their counterparts in other markets face less imminent pressure and are able to co-exist with rising [email protected] [email protected] online retail (in selected products) or to develop online on their own. Retail: who are the winners and losers? Yoji Otani, CMA Jeremy Kim Department stores have felt most severely the rise of e-commerce, with its Research Analyst Research Analyst portion of total retail sales shrinking from 10-12% to 3-9% across countries (+81) 3 5156-6756 (+82) 2 316 8902 between 2007 and 2016. Few brands/retailers in APAC have demonstrated [email protected] [email protected] successful online strategies and we note the following more successful names. Fast Retailing’s vertical model and self-run store format has allowed it to develop a seamless online module; Emart’s strong merchandising capability, Chien-Fie Man particularly in fresh food, has powered its O2O model; YUM China’s online Research Analyst delivery has successfully brought virtual traffic to the stores; and Robam’s (+65 ) 6423 6897 ability to manage offline distributors through a well-integrated inventory [email protected] information system has sustained its sales growth. Real estate: performance increasingly polarised; subdued rental growth outlook Professional landlords have embraced the online challenge by engaging in a more active management of their retail assets through frequent redevelopment, tenant mix changes and asset recycling. Nevertheless, we forecast subdued market rental growth across the region, given the structural challenges despite a cyclical recovery in retail sales. Our rental outlook is most optimistic in China and least in HK. We see increasing polarisation in performance and expect well-managed quality portfolios to gain market share at the expense of street-level shops and boutique malls. Diversified groups are our preferred picks; opportunities exist in retail REITs We believe that developers and diversified REITs with substantial retail exposures are better positioned to overcome the challenges of online shopping and ride the cyclical recovery in consumption. Our top picks are Longfor, CapitaLand and Stockland. Notwithstanding near-term volatilities, we also see opportunities in some well-managed pure retail players, as we view the market as pricing in an overly pessimistic scenario that assumes an over-50bps cap rate expansion or almost 20% decline in rents. Scentre Group and CapitaLand Mall Trust are our preferred picks. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 13 December 2017 Property APAC Retail and Property Table Of Contents All in charts ........................................................................ 3 The essentials .................................................................... 5 The evolution of retail and retail real estate ...................... 10 Survival traits ................................................................... 14 Valuations in a new world ................................................ 30 Australia .......................................................................... 39 China: pioneer in e-commerce ......................................... 46 Hong Kong ...................................................................... 64 Japan ............................................................................... 79 Korea e-commerce ........................................................... 99 Singapore ...................................................................... 110 Appendix A .................................................................... 118 The authors of this report wish to acknowledge the contributions made by Louise Li, Felix Gao, Leanne Truong, Daniel Wan, Foo Leung, Stephen Cheung, Myron Lau, Akiko Komine and Akane Wang. Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 13 December 2017 Property APAC Retail and Property All in charts Retail Figure 1: E-commerce retail sales have outperformed the Figure 2: …with pace and penetration differing among retail market in most countries over the past 10 years… countries due to underlying reasons 10-year CAGR (2006-2016) for e-commerce/total retail sales for Online penetration % comparison for six markets seven markets 35% 90% 78% 30% 70% 25% 50% 20% 15% 30% 24% 17% 14% 13% 16% 16% 11% 6% 10% 2% 4% 4% 6% 10% 0% 5% -10% China Hongkong United Japan Australia Singapore South 0% States Korea 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e China Hong Kong, China Japan Total retail E-commerce Singapore South Korea Australia Source: Deutsche Bank, Euromonitor, Statista Source: Deutsche Bank, Euromonitor Figure 3: E-commerce penetration from one category to Figure 4: Department stores have been hurt the most another, with countries at different stages severely, particularly in Stages 2-3 in Figure 3 Stage 4 Department store as % of total retail sales perishable or bulky items or consumer services shrank from 2007 to 2016
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