Appendix G. Cumulative Impacts Analysis

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This appendix summarizes the research conducted to inform the cumulative impacts analysis (see Chapter 5 of the Environmental Impact Statement [EIS]). The following tables provide regional and state-specific information on the following trends: population shifts (increased urbanization and suburbanization); agricultural trends concerning agricultural productivity and farmland values; and economic growth (e.g., industrial, technological, and energy sectors including renewable energy). The tables are presented in the following sequence:

 Midwest Region at a glance

 Illinois

 Indiana

 Iowa

 Michigan

 Minnesota

 Missouri

 Ohio

 Wisconsin

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Table G-1. Midwest Region at a Glance

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth) Suburban Sprawl Farmland Values Dipping Regional Transportation Plans  The suburban share of overall metropolitan  Midwest, U.S. continue to lose farms.  The Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA’s) area growth averaged more than 100% in the  In 2012, nearly two-thirds of the Midwest’s 3 million planning initiative for passenger rail Midwest (compared to 83.7% nationally) as a farms had gross sales of less than $50,000, an in the Midwest. Link result of continuing population losses in indication that farming is not the primary  The Midwest Interstate Passenger Rail several large cities. income for many farm families; since 2007, the Commission (MIPRC) recently received share of farmers with primary occupations off preliminary notification that its November the farm grew from 49% to 51%. Only 6% of 2014 application to the FRA for a multi-state the Midwest’s farms (and 3.8% nationally) had planning project had been chosen as one of the gross sales of more than $1 million. two planning efforts, the Northeast Indiana  The cost of farmland continues to rise (up Passenger Rail Association (NIPRA) and All more than 20% year-over-year in the Aboard Ohio advocacy groups announced in Midwest), as do expenses related to everything August. Link from equipment and fuel to feed and fertilizer. Wind Energy Development Link  Wind energy facilities are being installed at a  There is an aging population of farmers, and rapid rate; costs are plummeting; technologies principal farm operations with fewer than 10 advancing; creating lots of jobs Link1; Link2; years of experience fell to 42%. Increase in business investment in wind  Land valuations outpace crop prices (property energy. Link3 tax squeeze). Link  Obama Clean Power Plan  Goal of 20% Wind Energy by 2030. Link  American Wind Energy Association Q2 2015 Market Report. Link

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Table G-2. Illinois

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Chicago added population – suburbs still  “ongoing weakness in farmland values”  Aerospace industry account for 85% of area’s population gain  State lost 2.3% of farms between 2007 and  President Obama launches manufacturing  Population increases in the Chicago area; 2012 innovation institute in Chicago - Chicago based businesses are leaving the suburbs for the city.  High cost of farmland (despite reduced interest consortium of 73 companies, nonprofits, and Link rate programs). Link universities are partnering with the federal  Cities with high rates of negative population  Sprawling development threatens farmland government to launch new manufacturing growth 2000-2010: Chicago. Link map innovation hubs. Link - Chicago headquartered  Cities with high rates of population growth consortium of businesses and universities that 2000-2010: Joliet, Aurora, Eglin. Link will concentrate on digital manufacturing and design technologies.  Development shifts are responsible for a much higher percentage of total sprawl: 100% in the  Chicago part of Midwest tech region “Silicon large metropolitan areas of Chicago Prairie” – over $1 billion in venture capital invested in Chicago in 2014 – technology o Socio – jobs, housing, demand for public sector is poised for more growth. Link services o Land use – development o Transportation – use of public transportation/cars

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Table G-3. Indiana

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Indianapolis added population – suburbs still  “ongoing weakness in farmland values”  The state’s agriculture industries combine to account for 85% of area’s population gain  State lost 3.7% of farms between 2007 and employ more than 107,500 direct workers.  Median home prices in South Bend have 2012 Add in the ripple effects, and the total climbs to jumped 47%. Link  Indiana’s farms account for over 2/3 of 188,600 jobs in Indiana. Link Grain and oilseed  Cities with high rates of negative population Indiana’s total land cover in 2012, while forests (i.e., soybeans) farming dominate the economic growth 2000-2010: Gary, South Bend. Link cover another 20% of the state. Link contributions of agriculture. These two industries account for 40% of agriculture’s  Cities with high rates of population growth  Shift from planting corn to soybeans (less corn total employment effect and 31% of 2000-2010: Fort Wayne. Link planted more soybeans planted). Link agricultural GDP.  Population growth will continue to grow but at  Corn, soybeans, and hog industries dominate  Indiana is a top 10 agricultural producer which a lesser rate (to 2050). Link state’s agricultural employment translates into big business for other industries  10 county Indianapolis-Carmel metro area has  Indiana farm and development map in the state (processing, manufacturing). been center of state’s population growth and  Agriculture utilizes a vast amount of Indiana’s  Transportation equipment and the life science accounted for 57% of state’s total territory: approximately 83% of Indiana’s industries (pharmaceuticals and medical  Central Indiana - between 2010-2030 this acres are devoted to either farms (14.7 million instruments) are the leading export industries metro area growth will be responsible for 62%; acres) or forests (4.7 million acres). Link in Indiana. Link in the next 40 years this region could be responsible for up to 70% of growth. Link  Hamilton County will be the state’s fastest growing county and projected to double in size by 2050. Link  Four corners of the state projected strong growth  There are equally distinct regions of population loss. Large swaths of mid-sized and rural communities in north, east, and west- central Indiana are projected to shed residents over the next 40 years. Many counties in southwest Indiana are also likely to lose population. 49 of Indiana’s 92 counties are expected to see a population decline by 2050.  Central Indiana – strong agricultural producer but also most populous region of state and

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Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth) economically diverse  Suburban counties of Indianapolis metro area net in-migration. Link

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Table G-4. Iowa

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Less sprawl around Des Moines (above  “ongoing weakness in farmland values”  Microsoft plans to build a $1.1 billion data national average)  State lost 4.6% of farms between 2007 and center in West Des Moines  Rural population decline; population growth 2012  ITC Holdings' Winnco-to-Hazleton occurring in urban and suburban areas  Farm and development map Transmission Line in Iowa: $480 million. The (2000-2010) U.S. Midwest expects to see more than $2  Heavy reliance on agricultural is common to billion in power transmission projects begin states experience greatest rural population loss construction next year, according to Industrial Info's database, almost one-quarter of which can be attributed to ITC Holdings Corporation's ITC (Novi, Michigan), $480 million construction of a transmission line from the company's proposed, 345-kilovolt Winnco West Substation in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to its existing Hazleton Substation in Buchanan County, Iowa. MidAmerican Energy Company (Des Moines, Iowa) also is involved in the development.  Des Moines major financial services hub with Principal Financial and Wells Fargo

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Table G-5. Michigan

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Higher sprawl around Detroit – Detroit job  State grants to businesses with agricultural and  Has fastest growing economy in Midwest – sprawl worst in US. Link food production. Link; Link project economy will continue to grow Link;  Net outgoing-incoming population (new  There are about 10 million acres of farmland in Link (manufacturing strongest sector) trend). Link Michigan and the state is home to 52,194  Automotive production - more suppliers are  Grand Rapids added population – suburbs still farms. The food and agriculture industry moving in to support the industry. account for 85% of area’s population gain contributes $101.2 billion annually to the o Impacts: socio, land use, transportation,  Median home prices surged 75% in metro state’s economy. Michigan’s food and air Lansing. Link agriculture system is a large portion of this  Michigan legislature passed new state’s workforce. Total employment resulting  Cities with high rates of negative population transportation plan in late 2014 (provide from this sector is 923,000 which accounts for growth 2000-2010: Detroit, Flint Link additional $1.2 billion for roads and bridges). about 22% of the state’s employment.  Migration Patterns Link  Farming on the edge map of farmland. Link o Impacts: socio, land use, noise  Since the 1950s, the area of urban land in each  “ongoing weakness in farmland values” State of the Lake States has increased by more than  DTE (largest developer of solar energy projects lost 6.8% of farms between 2007-2012 twofold while population has risen by over in State) implementing projects part of 50%. Over the next 50 years, the Lake States  Farm and development map SolarCurrents – construct, operate and population is projected to increase by about maintain solar array for 20 years – begins 6% to 8% every decade. Urban area is construction August 2015 in Romulus, projected to increase by only 2% to 3% in Ypsilanti, and Ann Arbor – already began Michigan. Although population is projected to installing 10 megawatts of solar energy across increase at a slower rate in the future, urban 22 sites in Southeastern Michigan. Link 1 Link2 expansion is expected to increase even less Link3 Link 4 than past trends would imply. Link  Michigan’s largest utilities (DTE Energy and Consumers Energy) pledged to spend $10 billion on in-state services and raw materials for their operations (minimum of $1 billion annually). Link o Impacts: energy resources, socioeconomics o DTE receives license for new nuclear unit Link  Industrial growth – attracting new businesses/job creation – Michigan Strategic Fund, community improvement projects,

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Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth) Chinese automobile investment in Detroit Link, Link; Expanded tech center Link (skilled jobs, automobile industry) - Nine companies to invest $146.3 million, create or retain 970 jobs. Link  Toyota shifts R&D base to Michigan. Link  YFS Automotive Systems investing $26.9 million in new manufacturing operations in Detroit. Link  President Obama launches manufacturing innovation institute in Detroit - Detroit-area based consortium of 60 companies, nonprofits, and universities are partnering with the federal government to launch new manufacturing innovation hubs. Link - Detroit- area headquartered consortium of businesses and universities, with a focus on lightweight and modern metals manufacturing.  One of the fastest growing states for technology jobs 2015. Link

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Table G-6. Minnesota

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Minneapolis-St. Paul added population –  State lost 8.1% of farms between 2007 and  Antofagasta's Hydrometallurgical Plant in Ely, suburbs still account for 85% of area’s 2012. Link Minnesota: $547 million Antofagasta's population gain  Businesses tied to agriculture and energy construction of a hydrometallurgical plant, to  The Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area is home to continue to report pullbacks in economic be built on the site of a proposed copper and 62% of the state’s population. Link activity, and this is spilling over into the nickel mine.  Median home prices in the Minneapolis-St. Paul broader regional economy; “Sinking o Air Quality – construction and operation; area have increased 42%. Link agriculture and energy commodity prices Socio – jobs, housing;  Cities with high rates of population growth pushed supply managers’ expectations of Noise – construction noise 2000-2010: Rochester. Link future economic conditions lower for the  One of the fastest growing states for month.” Link  Since the 1950s, the area of urban land in each technology jobs 2015. Link of the Lake States has increased by more than  Farm and development map  Healthcare industry twofold while population has risen by over  Minneapolis-St. Paul area serves as state’s 50%. Over the next 50 years, the Lake States economic hub, with companies such as Target, population is projected to increase by about U.S. Bancorp, General Mills, 3M, and Medtronic 6% to 8% every decade. Urban area is headquartered there. Link projected to increase by 9% in Minnesota.  Central Minnesota is generating new jobs at a Although population is projected to increase at faster pace than anywhere in the state. a slower rate in the future, urban expansion is Northeast and Southwest have had slowest job expected to increase even less than past trends growth and rebound from recession. Link would imply. Link  Twin Cities Metro (largest economy) high concentration of jobs in company management, real estate, professional, scientific and technical services, finance and insurance. Link

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Table G-7. Missouri

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Less sprawl around Kansas City (above  Industry share of Missouri’s economy 2012 –  Boeing expanding St. Louis campus (hiring 700 national average) natural resources (including agriculture and workers)  Kansas City added population – suburbs still mining) make up 1.4% link and in 2013 it o Socio: jobs, housing, public services account for 85% of area’s population gain makes up 2.3%. Link  As of 2012, only two auto assembly plants in  Metropolitan areas make up the largest  Businesses tied to agriculture and energy Missouri (St. Louis and Kansas City area). Link portions of the state’s economy – St. Louis continue to report pullbacks in economic  Growth of professional, scientific, and technical County and Jackson County make up 1/3 of the activity, and this is spilling over into the services industries in St. Louis/Kansas City state’s economy in terms of employment, broader regional economy; “Sinking followed by administrative and support personal income, and population Link; rural agriculture and energy commodity prices services and construction related activities – areas important for tourism and agriculture pushed supply managers’ expectations of new business formations higher in urban areas.  Map of population growth by county future economic conditions lower for the Link month.” Link  Major industries: aerospace, food processing,  Farm and development map chemicals, printing/publishing, electrical equipment, and beer  Monsanto based in St. Louis – state has growing science and biotechnology field

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Table G-8. Ohio

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Less sprawl in Cincinnati (above national  State lost 0.5% of farms between 2007 and  Aerospace industry, oil-shale production average 2012  Since Feb 2010 Ohio alone has added nearly  More sprawl in Cleveland area  In Ohio, and most other Midwestern states, 70,000 manufacturing jobs over that period.  Columbus added population – suburbs still farmland is appraised using a formula based on Link account for 85% of area’s population gain “current agricultural use value.” Based on  America Makes in Youngstown, OH – tech  Cleveland median home price climbed 25% in factors such as commodity prices, soil initiative – Established in 2012 and based in three years; Columbus climbed 28% productivity, rental rates, production expenses Youngstown, Ohio, America Makes is the and interest rates, the state determines the  Increasingly urban electorate flagship Institute for the National Network for income that a farmer can be expected to earn Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI)  Cities with high rates of negative population on his or her land. In 2015, crop prices (and infrastructure of up to 45 Institutes to follow growth 2000-2010: Dayton, Cincinnati, Akron, thus farm incomes) have fallen, but property and is driven by the National Center for Toledo Cleveland. Link taxes are still being based on the record-high Defense Manufacturing and Machining  Nearly 80% of Ohioans live in metropolitan crop prices of a few years ago. The result is a (NCDMM) (part of President’s $500 million areas (31% live in four northeast metropolitan real squeeze on rural landowners. investment in manufacturing). Link areas; 22% live in three southwest  Sprawling development threatens farmland  Manufacturing and financial services are metropolitan areas; central Ohio which map largest sectors of Ohio’s economy consists of the Columbus metropolitan area has 17% of the population). Link  The resurgence of steel production in Ohio is due to rising demand for motor vehicles and  Appalachian hills of southeastern Ohio is least the drilling boom in oil and gas industry. densely populated area. Companies in Ohio are shipping pipes and tubes to drilling operations here and in other states and countries. The effects have been particularly notable in northeastern Ohio. Link  Boom in shale development impacts Ohio’s steel industry by increased demand for pipes and tubes for extraction. Link

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Table G-9. Wisconsin

Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth)  Sprawl around Milwaukee  “ongoing weakness in farmland values”  Biomed clusters (Madison) o Land use (fragmentation and sprawl),  State lost 11% of farms between 2007 and  The U.S. Army has awarded Oshkosh Corp. a socio (taxes, services, housing prices), 2012 contract that could be worth up to $30 billion transportation  Agricultural experts are predicting decline in and provide years of work to thousands of  More urbanized areas of the state are projected net farm income due to dairy prices which are Wisconsin employees building a new type of to see additional households, while remote expected to drop by at least $7 per armored truck in Oshkosh. Link rural areas and older industrial communities hundredweight. Link  State giving millions to broadband providers to are projected to lose households. Link  Rent paid for cropland is likely to experience expand in rural areas. Link  Impact of 2006 foreclosure crisis is “zombie some downward pressure as crop prices have  Machinery and transportation equipment houses” (abandoned homes and subdivisions). declined. Seed costs are expected to continue leading manufacturing products. Most Wisconsin has its own version of zombie to grow in 2015, but at a tempered rate. important mined products are sand, gravel, subdivisions called “ghost parcels.” Ghost Reduced planting and lower commodity prices and crushed stone. Link parcels are located in almost all counties of are expected, so seed supplies should be  Emerging bioenergy sector provides promise Wisconsin – these parcels are theoretically adequate for the demand. Link and a challenge for the future of rural available for development. Link  Price of farm land 2015: as you go from the Wisconsin. Link  Since the 1950s, the area of urban land in each east, southeastern corner of the state to the of the Lake States has increased by more than farther west parts of the state, the prices of twofold while population has risen by over agricultural land go down. Likewise, as you go 50%. Over the next 50 years, the Lake States farther north the quality of the agricultural population is projected to increase by about land gets a little bit poorer, you’ll see some 6% to 8% every decade. Urban area is lower prices as well. The most valuable land in projected to increase by only 2% to 3% in the state is probably in the northeast corridor Wisconsin. Although population is projected to near Green Bay and Oshkosh, as well as down increase at a slower rate in the future, urban in the southeast as you would expect with the expansion is expected to increase even less large population demands for land in that area than past trends would imply. Link as well. Link  Aging rural population. Link  Top five agricultural products: dairy products, beef cattle and calves, corn for grain, greenhouse and nursery products and soybeans. Dairy farming is leading agricultural activity. Link  Farm and development map  Mid-sized farms present the single largest

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Trend A – Population Shifts Trend B – Agricultural Trends Trend C – Economic Growth (urbanization/suburbanization) (productivity/value) (industry fueling growth) challenge for production agriculture and show the largest statistical decline. Link  Number of small and large farms are increasing while midsized farms are declining. Link

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