Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2021 India Edition Brochure / report title goes here | Section title goes here 02 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2021 Contents Foreword 04 Let the games begin 06 The cloud cover intesifies in 2021 and it is a bright future 12 Gaining an intelligent edge 16 The next-generation radio access network 26 Video visits go viral 42 The cloud migration forecast 54 5G is not hazardous to your health 62 The hyperquantified athlete 72 TV’s New Year’s resolution 82 From virtual to reality 96 03 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2021 Foreword We can’t talk about 2021 without reality headsets helped enterprises train mentioning COVID-19. All of our TMT workers and school educate students Predictions topics for this year were virtually when COVID-19 made meeting shaped to some extent by the pandemic. in person difficult. Misinformation We hope that during 2021, we will be flourishes against a backdrop of closer to the end of the pandemic than uncertainty, and myths about 5G’s health the beginning, focusing on thriving in the risks surged. And the hyperquantification future rather than responding of athletes may make sports viewing to the present. more compelling in a time when stadiums are less accessible. Across multiple parts of the Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) ecosystem, Faster change isn’t always positive observers have been repeating some change, of course. But many of the version of the comment, “There have trends accelerated by the pandemic look been five years of change in five months likely to make the world a better place. due to the pandemic.” COVID-19 has been More gender balance in sport is a good a catalyst—an unwelcome one, but still a thing—end of story. Medical video visit catalyst—for needed changes across the technology that works in the developed TMT landscape. world during a lockdown will likely lead to more and better medical access in A catalyst is a substance that causes a the developing world and remote areas. chemical reaction to occur more rapidly Greater use of the cloud, and of open than it would have without. Sometimes, or virtual radio access network (RAN) only a tiny amount of catalyst can trigger solutions, may make software and a large change. In the same way, the cellular service more affordable for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is only 100 economically disadvantaged … and may nanometers across and weighs one also do so more sustainably, helping not trillionth of a milligram, has catalyzed just people but the planet too. considerable changes in many facets of TMT. In a chemical reaction, when a catalyst is removed, the reaction returns to its Some of these changes happened slower rate. Will the post-pandemic world extremely quickly. Movements to the see change, disruption, and innovation cloud, to video visits for medicine, and decelerate from current levels? Or will to the intelligent edge were already the acceleration induced by COVID-19 underway in 2019, but they have been persist for the long term—perhaps even accelerated by years or even decades permanently? because of the pandemic. We expect rapid evolution in these three areas to Welcome to TMT Predictions 2021. continue through 2021. Other parts of the TMT industry were also Ariane Bucaille shaped by the pandemic, although not Global TMT industry leader to the same extent. Upgrades to 8K TVs may be accelerated by lockdowns and the PN Sudarshan rise in time spent watching video. Digital India TMT industry leader 04 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2021 Foreword 05 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2021 Let the games begin India is set to witness a boom in online gaming as several favorable factors converge Globally, the video game industry dwarfs with ~5% share of the Indian Media the cinema box office (being around four and Entertainment (M&E) industry.4 We times the size of the box office revenues).1 predict that the online gaming industry However, in India, the gaming industry is in India will continue to grow rapidly. The less than half of box office collections.2 industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of This gap is expected to narrow, with 40% untill 2022, taking the market size to several factors converging and providing US$2.8 billion by 2022, and strengthening a tailwind to the gaming industry. the sector’s share of total M&E by 4−5%.5 This growth would be majorly driven The Indian online gaming industry was by mobile gaming as 85% of the online estimated to be US$1.1 billion in 20193 gaming in India takes place on mobile.6 06 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2021 The factors that will drive this rapid not produce much new content due to growth of the industry are discussed COVID-19-related restrictions. Thus, below. their utility decreased with time as consumers viewed old episodes while The pandemic push new episodes were coming slow. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, • Only a few options — notably gaming online gaming was on a growth path, and anime/animation — could support extending its reach to wider and diverse creation as well as consumption in the audiences. The alluring offering of online “new normal”, thus gaining an edge over gaming to engage with other gamers other entertainment options. worldwide, ability to play on any new-age computing device, attend in-game events, In India, it is reported that engagement, complete rewarding tasks, and post as measured by time spend on gaming accomplishments on social media has apps, increased by 21% during the spurred innovative business models and initial national lockdown,8 with the total stirred consumer behavior. customer base crossing 300 million users.9 Figure 1: Indian gaming market While the arrival of vaccines and (US$ billion) resumption of economic activities may 2.80 result in a levelling off or even decline in 2.10 the average time spent on video gaming, 1.50 the industry would already be in a higher 1.1 gear. Influence of socio-economic parameters 2019 2020 2021 P 2022 P India has witnessed a number of socio- economic transitions over the past Source: Frost & Sullivan, Deloitte analysis decade, with some driven by policy (notably endorsing of micro-transaction payment systems post-demonetization). Gaming was already amongst the top five Key drivers that would lead to the growth activities carried out on mobile devices of domestic consumption of gaming in in 2019.7 Then the pandemic and ensuing India are mentioned below: restrictions provided a turbo boost to the industry. Demographics Demographic dividend: India is one of Of the universe of consumer choices for the top five mobile gaming markets in the 10 entertainment, here is how gaming got a world, with 13% share of global game boost: sessions, and is expected to add ~40 million online gamers during 2020−22.11 • At the first level, several traditional recreational and entertainment options • About 65% of the Indian population became unavailable. Options such as (1.3 billion) is below 35 years of age. live concerts and movie theatres thus By 2022, the median age of India will fell out of the set of possible choices. be just 29, which is quite young as compared with China (37) or Japan (48), • At the second level, some of the options and would offer a significant demand that could be consumed from the base for gaming companies in India.12 safety of one’s home did not allow for creation of new content. For instance, • Rural areas and women are also traditional television and video OTT increasingly coming into the gaming 13 platforms had their libraries, but could fold. 07 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2021 Figure 2: Number of online gamers including high-speed 4G mobile networks in India (million) with low latency. This helps players participate in real-time multiplayer 368 games. 326 269 Improving disposable income 201 The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per head (at PPP) in India is expected to increase from US$5,840 in 2016 to US$7,302 in 2022.16 Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) of India has 2016 2018 2020 2022 P already nearly doubled from 2012−13 to 2018−19 with per capita GNDI increased Source: The Power of Mobile Gaming in India, MMA and Kantar IMRB in association POKKT from INR 82,408 to INR 144,429 during the same period.17 Increase in per capita income would lead to a rise in willingness Smartphone penetration to pay for digital services.18 The number of smartphone users in India is expected to reach 820 million by Deeper adoption of digital payments 2022.14 Along with affordability, newer Cash was the king in the Indian economy smartphones offer advanced capacity before the pandemic. However, and features. These features include demonetization (in 2016) followed by the chipsets for faster processing, Graphics pandemic (in 2020) have diminished the Processing Units (GPUs) for immersive popularity of cash and made cashless graphics, large High Dynamic Range transactions increasingly popular among (HDR) capable screens, and extended people. battery capacity. These allow users to play games that were previously According to National Payments inaccessible and provide an enhanced Corporation of India (NPCI), Unified gaming experience. Payments Interface (UPI) payments took three years to reach one billion transactions in October 2019 compared Figure 3: Smartphone users in India with just one year to reach the next (million) billion mark.19 This widespread adoption 820 of digital payment solutions has greatly reduced friction and presented a vehicle 500 to monetize video games. Digital payment solutions enable in-app purchases that games increasingly rely on; this is the revenue model for gaming worldwide.