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COVID-19 regulatory impact - demand and supply side of the industry Airports Company South Africa Summit on the Review of Civil Aviation Policy, 01 – 02 March 2021 1 Passenger traffic and capacity Synopsis – global traffic loss An overall reduction of air passengers (both international and domestic) ranging from 60% - Changed narrative. SA contraction is estimated to be below the world average. This has negative implications for value chain service providers like MROs and ground handlers. Source: ICAO 24/02/2021 Synopsis – Global traffic recovery in the long-term Globally, on aggregate, domestic passenger volumes are expected to recover by H1:2023. International passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels only by 2024. However, if a structural break occurs, global traffic may take up to 20 years to recover to 2019 levels. Uncertainty in the industry remains high. Source: ACI 08/12/2020; IATA 21/10/2020; Pierce, B. IATA Webinar 03/12/2020 Global travel restrictions There has been a clear improvement since April 2020 to February 2021 in terms of border and travel restrictions. April 2020 20 October 2020 23 November 2020 Wave risks remain high. July 2020 06 January 2021 September 2020 03 February 2021 Source: IATA 04/2020, 27/07/2020, 20/10/2020, 23/11/2020; 06/01/2021, 03/02/2021, 28/02/2021; 22 February 2021 UNTWO 10/09/2020 Synopsis – Global traffic recovery in the short- to medium-term • Passenger traffic globally will remain severely affected in H1:2021 as vaccination operations are planned and implemented. • Global passenger traffic volume for H1:2021 is forecasted to rise by approximately 20% compared to H1:2020. • H2:2021 may record a 60% increase compared to the prior year. • International passenger throughput will remain feeble in H1:2021, but an increase is expected as an increasing number of people are vaccinated. • Domestic travel recovery will remain steady. • Africa turnaround is expected later than any other region. • In 2021, demand in Africa is expected to strengthen to 38% of 2019 levels, only 10% more than 2020 (and 7% lower than the prior expectation). Note that, globally, demand is expected to reach 50% of 2019 levels in 2021. • NB: Target first turnaround markets that can Source: ACI 08/12/2020; IATA 21/10/2020, 24/11/2020; Aerotimehub 01/01/2021; ICAO 10/02/2021 boost the South African tourism and aviation industry. Supply side impact on the South African international segment International capacity impact of Covid-19 and recovery 10000000 9000000 8000000 Operating Airline 7000000 Year Month Capacity Covid-regulations Impact on international segment 6000000 2020 February 726 718 No regulation 5000000 2020 March 645 429 Level 1 (last week of March) Decrease in capacity 4000000 No international flight except repartiation 3000000 2020 April 55 887 Level 1 flights 2000000 No international flight except repatriation 1000000 2020 May 42 620 Level 1 flights 0 No international flight except repartiation 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2020 June 73 803 Level 1 (with business travel) flights No international flight except repatriation 2020 July 54 031 Level 1 (with business travel) flights Regions 2020 Loss 2021 Expected recovery Level 2 (interprovincial travel No international flight except repatriation Australia -73,4% 21,5% 2020 August 49 080 allowed) flights Central Africa -62,0% 64,9% Level 3 (interprovincial travel No international flight except repatriation East Africa -66,0% 107,4% 2020 September 46 000 allowed) flights Eastern Europe -64,2% 130,4% Level 3 (international travel Limited international flights (ban on Covid-10 Far East Asia -82,7% 177,3% 2020 October 173 757 allowed - limited) risk countries) Level 3 (international travel Gulf -62,4% 59,6% 2020 November 293 217 allowed - some external bans) International flights (limited external bans) Middle East -78,8% 243,6% Level 3 (international travel North Africa -71,6% 171,9% allowed - increasing external Limited international flights (ban on Covid-10 North America -70,5% 93,3% 2020 December 257 726 bans) risk countries) South America -75,3% -63,6% Level 3 (international travel Southeast Asia -69,8% 193,2% allowed - increasing external Limited international flights (ban on Covid-10 2021 January 221 238 bans) risk countries) Southern Africa -63,9% 80,3% Africa and Asia are the Level 3 (international travel Limited international flights (ban on Covid-10 West Africa -69,6% 38,2% 2021 February 149 499 allowed - external bans) risk countries) Western Europe -61,0% 38,0% recovery leaders Source data: Sabre 2021; Source: SA Government 2020-2021 Impact of external Covid-19 regulation on the South African market – international segment • The severe second wave due to the new SA variant has had a devastating effect on the international passenger segment in South Africa leading to temporary travel bans or other restrictions. • Regulation from international markets resulted in supply restrictions and demand for international travel was further throttled. • UK travellers are also banned from the following countries: • France, Norway, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Italy, India, Austria, Hong Kong, Canada, Colombia, Morocco, Chile, Finland and Argentina (at 27/01/2021) • SA may be the next to be banned by these countries if the SA variant Source: Business Tech 23/12/2020; Business Insider SA 28/12/2020, 21/01/2021, 27/01/2021, 06/01/2021; CPH Post Online 06/01/2021; EWN 21/12/2020; News24 22/12/2020; Times Live 22/01/2021; Reuters 24/01/2021; German Missions 08/02/2021 spread is not controlled and vaccinations are slow to be implemented. Demand side impact of Covid-19 on the South African market –international segment ACSA segment split in 2019/20 excluding March (as Covid-19 started to spread throughout the world) was as follow: Domestic: 70% Int and Reg: 30% So ACSA has a notably strong domestic market based on the historical throughput! The stimulation of domestic tourism demand has the capacity to pull the SA tourism sector (supply side) out of its slump. Source: SA Tourism 2020; ACSA 2020/21 Supply side impact on the South African international segment Domestic capacity impact of Covid-19 and recovery 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year Month Operating Airline Capacity Covid-regulations Impact on international segment 2020 February 726 718 No regulation 2020 March 645 429 Level 1 (last week of March) Decrease in capacity 2020 April 55 887 Level 1 No domestic flights 2020 May 42 620 Level 1 No domestic flights 2020 June 73 803 Level 1 (with business travel) Business domestic travel 2020 July 54 031 Level 1 (with business travel) Business domestic travel 2020 August 49 080 Level 2 (interprovincial travel allowed) All domestic flights allowed 2020 September 46 000 Level 3 (interprovincial travel allowed) All domestic flights allowed 2020 October 173 757 Level 3 (international travel allowed - limited) All domestic flights allowed 2020 November 293 217 Level 3 (international travel allowed - some external bans) All domestic flights allowed Level 3 (international travel allowed - increasing external 2020 December 257 726 bans) All domestic flights allowed Level 3 (international travel allowed - increasing external 2021 January 221 238 bans) All domestic flights allowed 2021 February 149 499 Level 3 (international travel allowed - external bans) All domestic flights allowed Source data: Sabre 2021; Source: SA Government 2020-2021 Airline developments over 2020/21 and 2021/22 Operating Capacity: Capacity: Capacity: airline (seat 2020 against 2021 against 2021 against capacity) 2019 2020 2019 Developments Started operating in June 2020 after lock down; continuously adding new routes and additional frequencies, domestically and Airlink -49,7% 111,4% 6,4% internationally. Cemair also started limited operations in June 2020. CemAir is increasing operations by 50%. Buying 3 more Airbus A319 and applied for approvals to fly to six more destinations in Africa. The airline intends to expand its operations in Africa. Cemair has applied for rights to operate scheduled flights to six destinations outside of South Africa. The fact that certain regional destinations are still not being served by any airline presents an ideal opportunity for Cemair to launch new routes. CemAir 104,2% 90,6% 289,1% Regional airline Ethiopian Airlines and CemAir sign interline agreement. Resumed limited services from OR Tambo International Airport to Cape Town and Durban from 15 June 2020. Continually added additional seats as demand for flights has increased, but that ability is almost came to an end in November 2020 because the airline was almost operating at 100% capacity. Added international flights (Mauritius) to its scheduled flights. FlySafair -63,9% 129,3% -17,3% Dubai-based Emirates airline and Quarter airlines has announced a partnership with the carrier. Mango Airlines resumed flights on the 15 June. The South African government is not just seeking strategic equity partners for South African Airways but for its subsidiaries as well, including Mango Airlines according to a Bloomberg report quoting Public Mango -64,4% 36,9% -51,3% Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan. Comair’s kulula.com airline started flying on 1 December, after a business rescue process and British Airways started to BA -68,1% 225,7% 3,8% operate flights from December 9. Their aircraft will gradually return to service from December with a seven-month ramp-up period until June 2021. Comair targets 1 July for all its flight routes to return, with the expectation to add all regional flights by March 2021 Kulula -65,9% 172,2% -7,3% Nedbank recently acquired 7.5% stake in Comair. The government so far had received 31 expressions of interest in SAA. A decision on an equity partner for it could be made by the end of March.
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