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NCsoft (036570) Korea – Equity Research Aion takes #1 ranking in US and Europe Internet Buy Aion's initial performance in US and Europe is positive 19 Aug 2009 After 2Q conference call, anticipation of Aion in US and Europe declined sharply as Bloomberg: 036570 KS ① AionÊs numbers in China were slightly lower than expected, and ② NCsoft did not Target Price (12M, W): 280,000 disclose numbers for Aion pre-orders in US and Europe. Although NCsoft's shares have Share Price (08/18/09, W): 122,000 recently declined, we see AionÊs achievement thus far in US and Europe as impressive. Expected Return (%): 129.5 Sector: Internet Software and Services According to MMORPG.com, Aion took the no.1 ranking leaving a huge gap with the no.2 Sector Rating: Overweight game. Aion Collector's Edition, which is sold at full price (called pre-tail), was sold out in EPS Growth (09F, %): 636.9 Amazon and was the no.1 or no.2 best selling PC game in some online game stores such Market EPS Growth (09F, %): 54.3 as Steam. P/E (X): 12.4 If Aion, which is to enter open beta testing and commercialization in September, Market P/E (08/18/09F, X): 13.8 continues to perform positively in US and Europe, market sentiment for the stock could Market Cap (Wbn): 2,646 improve. Shares Outstanding (mn): 22 Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000): 548 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn): 82 Margin Balance ('000 sh): 540 Dividend Yield (09F, %): .8 Free Float (%): 64.0 52-Week Low/High: 24,400/193,000 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return): 0.8 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %,SD): 4.3 Foreign Ownership (%): 14.4 Major Shareholder(s): T. J. Kim et al. (26.52%) Mirae Asset Mgt. et al (14.4%) Treasury stock (9.43%) Price Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -15.3 58.6 137.8 Relative -22.9 19.4 138.9 FY Sales OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDAFCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Share price (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (W) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 420 KOSPI 12/07 223 47 21.1 45 2,205 56 19 10.4 22.2 2.3 13.3 320 12/08 240 46 19.0 27 1,334 57 10 6.4 39.4 2.6 15.6 220 12/09F 473 235 49.7 201 9,831 252 179 39.5 12.4 4.2 9.1 120 12/10F 571 313 54.9 297 14,526 333 230 40.0 8.4 2.8 6.1 20 12/11F 677 397 58.7 403 19,673 419 302 37.5 6.2 2.0 4.0 8/08 12/08 4/09 8/09 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates Chang Kwean Kim +822-768-4321 [email protected] Jee-Hyun Moon +822-768-3615 [email protected] Please carefully read important notices in the last pages of this report. NCsoft Figure 1. Weekly unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.COM Figure 2. Monthly unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.COM ('000) ('000) 200 weekly 800 monthly 150 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 Aug 14 Aug 19 Aug 24 Aug 29 Aug 14 Aug 19 Aug 24 Aug 29 Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 3. Semi-annual unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.COM Figure 4. Annual unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.COM ('000) ('000) 2,000 semi-annually 3,000 annually 1,500 2,250 1,000 1,500 500 750 0 0 Aug 14 Aug 19 Aug 24 Aug 29 Aug 14 Aug 19 Aug 24 Aug 29 Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Table 1. Top 10 unique hits at MMORPG.COM (Unique hits) Rank In a week In a month In 6 months In a year 1 Aion 114,992 Aion 361,891 Aion 1,208,212 Warhammer Online 2,652,214 2 World of Warcraft 50,330 World of Warcraft 157,461 Warhammer Online 805,764 Aion 1,792,226 3 City of Heroes 28,641 Star Wars: The Old Republic 114,256 Darkfall 712,747 Darkfall 1,609,644 4 Karos Online 27,375 Darkfall 106,798 Star Wars: The Old Republic 665,575 Age of Conan 1,265,524 5 Warhammer Online 24,976 Warhammer Online 105,760 World of Warcraft 590,409 World of Warcraft 1,237,638 6 Champions Online 24,931 Age of Conan 105,048 Age of Conan 590,227 Lord of the Rings Online 1,205,892 7 Star Wars Galaxies 23,518 Champions Online 96,537 Atlantica Online 531,264 Atlantica Online 1,067,247 8 Star Wars: The Old Republic 22,326 EVE Online 87,843 Lord of the Rings Online 515,899 EVE Online 1,004,385 9 EVE Online 20,443 Final Fantasy XIV 87,773 EVE Online 511,401 Star Wars: The Old Republic 937,282 10 Earthrise 19,697 Atlantica Online 85,348 The Chronicles of Spellborn 444,103 The Chronicles of Spellborn 916,832 Note: Based on August 18, 2009, the ranking is calculated by the popularity, number of unique hit, the characteristic of site is in Table 6. Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research 2 NCsoft Figure 5. Aion weekly ranking Jun 14 Jul 5 Jul 26 Aug 16 Sep 6 Sep 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Steam (Aion Collector's Edition) 15 Direct2Drive (Aion Standard Edition) (rank) Note: based on revenue, the characteristic of each site is in Table 6. Source: Shacknews, Steam, Direct2Drive, Daewoo Securities Research Table 2. Aion CollectorÊs Edition and Standard Edition Aion Collector's Edition Aion (Standard Edition) Price $59.99 ($69.99 as a box in offline-store) $49.99 Package includes a 30-day subscription (37 days if purchased online) Aion Collector's Edition Bonus Items: Sprint Ring, Stat-Boosting Hat, and XP Tailsman (available when game goes live): Contents Black Cloud Earring (gives an HP and MP boost) Package includes a 30-day subscription Special character title ("Pioneer of Aion") with stat boost Color dye to tint one in-game item Two character emotes (Disco and Samba Emotes) Source: Company Data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 3. Top 10 weekly sales of PC games Steam Dircet2Drive 1. Warhammer 40K: Dawn of War II / Relic Entertainment 1. Champions Online (pre-order) / Cryptic 2. Aion Collector's Edition (pre-order) / NCsoft 2. Fallout 3 / Bethesda Softworks 3. Left 4 Dead / Valve 3. The Sims 3 / The Sims Studio 4. Hearts Of Iron III / Paradox Interactive 4. Hearts of Iron III with Sprite Packs Bundle / Paradox Interactive 5. Counter-Strike: Source / Valve 5. Best of Indie Bundle Vol. 1 / Various 6. The Witcher: Enhanced Edition - Director's Cut / CD Projekt RED 6. Rise of Flight / neoqb 7. Red Faction: Guerrilla (pre-order) / Volition 7. Hearts Of Iron III / Paradox Interactive 8. TrackMania United Forever / Nadeo 8. Aion (pre-order) / NCsoft 9. Team Fortress 2 / Valve 9. East India Company / Nitro Games 10. Prototype / Radical Entertainment 10. Civilization 4: The Complete Edition / Firaxis Note: Based on the sales result in August 2~8, the ranking is calculated by revenue size Source: Shacknews, Steam, Direct2Drive, Daewoo Securities Research 3 NCsoft Table 4. Type of Aion sales in US and Europe # Type Details 1 Pre-order The term means both types 2 and 3 When customer only buys a beta key for $5, customer can decide to pay the remainder when Aion is commercialized. Only available offline. 2 Pre-sale Benefits: Early game access (48 hours before commercialization) Access to Aion server character pre-selection Access to all BETA event weekends When customer purchases full package: $49.99 (Standard), $59.99 (CollectorÊs Edition). 3 Pre-tail Only available online. Digital downloads available at Steam, Direct2Drive Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 5. Schedule of Aion service in US and Europe Date Details Sales of beta key May 14~ Sales of package June 17~ 3rd July 2~6 Asmodian levels 1~20 4th July 17~20 Elyos and Asmodian levels 1~25 Close beta testing 5th July 31~Aug. 3 Elyos and Asmodian levels 1~30 6th Aug. 14~17 Elyos and Asmodian levels 1~30 NCsoft will participate at game show in Germany Marketing in Europe Germany Aug. 19~23 Participants can experience Aion at the show 1st Early Sep. Different from Korea, kind of close beta testing with bigger scale Open beta testing 2nd Mid Sep. Different from Korea, kind of close beta testing with bigger scale US Sep. 22 Pre-order provides 48 hour early access before commercialization Commercialization Europe Sep. 25 Pre-order provides 48 hour early access before commercialization Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 6. Information of each site that releases ranking of pc games Site name Ranking term Base Introduction Daily, weekly, Popularity MMORPG.COM delivers news and is a community for the MMORPG genre. It covers 347 games, has MMORPG.com monthly, yearly (unique hits) 1,780 guilds (communities), 1,098,628 members, 2,905,520 posts. Steam is a pioneer in an online gaming platform that provides the ability to distribute games and other content directly to more than 15 million gamers around the world. Steam opens up new channels of distribution and allows for non-traditional product offerings while increasing profit margins to content creators. Steam Weekly Revenue Valve, which operates Steam, is an entertainment software and technology company founded in 1996 and based in Bellevue, Washington.
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