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Singapore Industry Focus Singapore Industry Focus Singapore Property Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 8 Jan 2015 STI : 3,281.95 Year of Reckoning Analyst Modest growth prospects for Singapore property Derek TAN +65 6682 3716 market; sectors linked to external demand to do well [email protected] Prefer Developers to S-REITs on valuations Mervin SONG CFA +65 6682 3715 [email protected] S-REITs – focus on growth rather than rate hikes Rachael TAN +65 6682 3713 Modest growth prospects; sectors linked to external The Singapore property market [email protected] demand to outperform. will likely see a further downshift in growth in 2015 as prices STOCKS PICKS and rentals across major real estate subsectors feel the brunt Price Mkt Cap Target Price Yield (%) P/Bk of ongoing economic restructuring (Retail sector). In addition, (S$) demand/supply imbalance due to supply completion schedules 6/1/15 US$m S$ FY15F FY15F Rating is positive for Office prospects but result in a drop in rents and Developers prices in Industrial and Residential sector respectively. We CapitaLand 3.24 10,349 3.84 2.3% 0.8 BUY believe that the Hospitality sector will post a rebound in RevPARs as accommodation demand (mainly from China) REITs 1.75 1,294 1.86 6.8% 1.1 BUY picks up faster than supply growth. CDL Hospitality Trusts From a valuation Prefer Property Developers to S-REITs. Ascendas REIT 2.40 4,276 2.49 6.3% 1.2 BUY perspective, we prefer developers to S-REITs as we expect Capitamall Trust 2.06 5,245 2.12 5.5% 1.2 BUY valuations to normalize towards historical average of 0.90x Mapletree Greater 0.95 1,932 1.04 7.0% 0.9 BUY P/Bk NAV (vs 0.83x P/Bk NAV currently) while forward yield China Trust spreads at c. 3.5% for S-REITs is already at normalized Frasers Commercial 1.42 723 1.53 7.1% 0.9 BUY historical average levels, which we deem to be fair. Trust Property Developers – opportunities outside of Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP, DBS Bank Singapore. Property developers are expected to continue (i) clearing existing unsold inventories and remain selective on land-banking opportunities in Singapore, (ii) deploy capital in opportunities outside of Singapore to diversify and build up a recurring income base. Valuations are attractive at 0.83x P/Bk NAV, 0.7x P/RNAV. Our top developer pick is CAPL for its improving ROEs and diversified earnings base. Focus on growth for S-REITs rather than rate hikes. It will be a year of two halves for S-REITs and we believe the sector will see more pressure in 2H15 as rate hikes loom. We see (i) a modest growth outlook of c.5.3% in 2015 with potential downside from foreign exchange (AUD, JPY and EUR) impacting distributions and (ii) stronger USDSGD rate impacting on returns as hurdles to further outperformance in 2015. That said, further clarity from MAS recent regulatory recommendations is near term catalyst for investors in the space. Our picks are CDL HT, A-REIT, CMT, MAGIC and FCOT. www.dbsvickers.com ed: TH / sa: JC Industry Focus Singapore Property Table of Contents Derek TAN (65) 6682 3716 [email protected] Investment Summary 3 Mervin SONG CFA (65) 6682 3715 [email protected] Key Charts 4 Rachael TAN (65) 6682 3713 Peer Comparisons 7 [email protected] Singapore REITs – Navigating tougher times 9 Developers – Awaiting re-rating catalysts 17 Subsector Outlook Summary: Residential – Approaching a slippery slope 20 Retail - The swing to the suburbs 32 Office – Displacement demand to sustained uplift in rents for 2015 39 Industrial Sector – Business Park space to shine 45 Hospitality Sector – Renewed hope 50 Charts – S-REIT yield and P/Bk NAV 59 Charts – Developers P/Bk NAV 68 Stocks Profiles Ascendas REIT 72 Capitaland 76 CapitaMall Trust 80 CDL Hospitality Trusts 84 Fraser Commercial Trust 88 Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust 92 Page 2 Industry Focus Singapore Property 1. Investment Summary With a reduced population growth rate resulting in slowing Subdued outlook for Singapore property market - sectors demand, we see prices falling by up to c.15% over 2015- hinging on external demand to do better. 2015 will continue 2016 in anticipation of (i) a hike in supply completion over to be a year of further moderation for Singapore property 2015-2016, resulting in vacancy rates rising to 9%-10%, and market with most real estate subsectors expected to feel the (ii) “yield compression on the back of weakening rental rates brunt of ongoing economic restructuring or demand/supply impacting and rising interest cost. imbalance due to a spike in supply completions in 2015/2016. Strategies for: Office rents to peak in 1H16; office REITs’ prices typically lead spot rents by 9months-1year. Amongst the key real estate Singapore REITs – stock specific catalyst to drive sectors, we see the brightest rental prospects in the office performance sector, supported by a lack of supply in space in the CBD and expect rents to increase by c. 10% over 2015. We expect a Singapore REITs have done their job well over the past two positive flow-through to demand in the Business Parks/Sub- years, offering investors stable returns in market uncertainty. urban office space. We are however, aware of the medium Looking into 2015, while timing of rate hikes will remain a term risk in the sector due to a skew in supply completions in sector overhang, we see road-bumps to further 2016/2017 and expect medium term downside risks. Office outperformance from (i) a modest DPU growth of c.5.3% REITs prices typically lead spot rents by 9 months to 1 year, with downside risks in earnings stemming from Singapore’s meaning that further upside from current levels is limited. domestic restructuring impacting on margins, (ii) forex exchanges losses (especially for S-REITs with exposure to the Hospitality – rebound from a low base. We believe that the AUD/JPY and EUR) will be a key dampener for earnings in Singapore hospitality sector is poised for a rebound in 2015 2015 and (iii) strengthening USD-SGD which may lead to driven by returning tourists from China. We project demand fund outflows from the sector. We expect S-REITs to continue for accommodation to more than compensate for a 5.7% to look at overseas for growth opportunities and acquisitions growth in room supply. RevPARs is expected to post a to feature. Catalyst will come from clarity from the recent turnaround, albeit at a more moderate rate of 3.6%. MAS consultant paper and expiring tax incentives. Our preferences are S-REITs with the opportunity to surprise on Retail remains resilient; but reversions to fall below inflation the upside through acquisitions or portfolio-specific catalysts. growth rate. The retail sector is expected to continue to Top picks are CDL HT, A-REIT, CMT, MAGIC and FCOT. remain resilient despite an increasing tough operating climate for retailers faced with increasing labour cost, shortage Singapore Developers – Diversifying out of Singapore impacting productivity. In addition, e-commerce remains a rising threat for retailers who are unable to establish an Our call on the developers is mainly due to valuations. Firstly, online presence. That said, retail REITs should remain stable we view current trading levels of (P/Bk NAV of 0.83 and 0.70x given that they (i) own only c.34% of total retail space in P/RNAV) as attractive given that developers trade at close to Singapore and (ii) actively manage their properties which see historical – 0.5 SD level. While we expect further downside to high recurring spending and traffic. Singapore residential prices in 2015, we note that developers have in general (i) locked in a substantially portion of sales in Supply concerns for industrial but business park subsector residential projects in Singapore residential and have been fundamental improving. We remain cautious on the industrial selective in land-banking strategies, (ii) diversified their sector due to increased downside risks on the back of exposures away from Singapore and have been focused on heightened supply completion schedule in 2015/2016. This building up their recurring income base. We see catalysts will spike vacancy rates to >10% and spot rents are projected coming from a potential loosening of selective property to dip by c.5% per annum over 2015/2016. Industrial REITs measures when further price declines occur and value will see flattening or potentially negative rental reversion rates unlocking events through asset divestments over the year. over the next two years. That said, we are positive on the Our pick is CAPL. business park subsector as we see demand returning due to a lack of office supply in the CBD. Risks 1. Earlier than expected rise in interest rates negatively Residential prices projected to drop 15% over 2015/16. With impacting on earnings prices only down c.3.9% from the peak, we believe that the 2. External shocks impacting on demand/supply fundamentals. residential sector remains on an early part of a down-cycle. Page 3 Industry Focus Singapore Property 2. Key Charts Summary of DBS assertions on Major Property Subsectors Residential Outlook – Negative Market to see a surplus in housing units in 2016 Vacancy Rates and PPI movement 250.0 12.0% 40,000 Surplus/Deficit 250.0 (units) Surplus Index (%) 30,000 10.0% 200.0 200.0 20,000 8.0% 10,000 150.0 150.0 ‐ 6.0% 100.0 (10,000) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 100.0 4.0% (20,000) 50.0 Property Price Index (LHS) 2.0% (30,000) 50.0 Vacancy Rate (RHS) (40,000) ‐ 0.0% Change in Dwellings URA PPI (RHS) 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
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