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Threat Assessment for All Volcanoes

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Threat Assessment for All Volcanoes MAKUSHIN HAZARD + EXPOSURE ANALYSIS HAZARDS FACTORS Explosive activity 1 > If explosive activity (VEI ≥ 3) within the last Volcano Type 500 years 1 >If volcano type is cinder cone, basaltic Score = 1 field, small shield, or fissure vents: Major explosive activity Score = 0 4 >If volcano type is stratocone, lava domes, > If major explosive activity (VEI ≥ 4) within complex volcano, maar or caldera: last 5,000 years Score = 1 Score = 1 Holocene pyroclastic flows Maximum Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 2 > If maximum known VEI ≤ 2 >If yes Score = 0 Score = 1 >If maximum known VEI = 3 or 4 Holocene lahars Score = 1 1 >If Holocene lahars have traveled beyond >If maximum known VEI = 5 or 6 the flanks and reached populated areas Score = 2 Score =1 > If maximum known VEI ≥ 7 Score = 3 Holocene lava flows >If no maximum VEI is listed by GVP and if 0 > If Holocene lava flows have traveled volcano type = 0 beyond the immediate eruption site Score = 0 or flanks and reached populated areas >If no maximum VEI is listed by GVP but Score =1 volcano type = 1 Holocene tsunami(s) Score = 1 0 >If no known Holocene eruptions and the >Has it produced a tsunami within the volcano is not a silicic caldera system Holocene? If yes Score = 0 Score = 1 Hydrothermal explosion potential Eruption recurrence 0 1 > If eruption interval is 1-99 years >If the volcano had Holocene phreatic Score = 4 explosive activity, and/or has thermal > 100 – 1,000 years features that are extensive enough to Score = 3 pose a potential for explosive activity > 1,000 - 4,999 years Score =1 Score =2 Sector collapse potential > 5,000-10,000 years, or if no Holocene 1 >If the volcano has produced a sector eruptions but it is a large-volume restless collapse in Quaternary-Holocene time silicic system that has erupted in the last and has re-built its edifice, or, has high 100,000 years relief, steep flanks and demonstrated or Score = 1 inferred alteration >If no known Holocene eruption Score = 1 Score = 0 Primary lahar source 1 >If volcano has a source of permanent water/ice on edifice, water volume > 106 m3: Score = 1 MAKUSHIN HAZARD PROFILE MAKUSHIN HAZARD + EXPOSURE ANALYSIS HISTORICAL UNREST FACTORS Historical evacuations 0 >If yes, and a permanent population is still Observed seismic unrest present 1 >Since the last eruption, in the absence Score = 1 of eruptive activity, within 20 km of the volcanic edifice? If yes Local aviation exposure 0 Score = 1 >If any type volcano is within 50 km of a jet-service airport Observed ground deformation Score = 1 1 >Since the last eruption, in the absence >If a Type 1 volcano is within 300 km of a of eruptive activity, inflation or other jet-service airport evidence of magma injection? If yes Score = 1 Score = 1 >If a Type 1 volcano is within 300 km of a major international airport Observed fumarolic or magmatic 1 Score = 2 degassing >If none of these criteria are met >Since the last eruption, in the absence Score = 0 of eruptive activity, either heat source or magmatic gases? If yes Regional aviation exposure Score = 1 4.3 >This score is based on the log10 of approximate daily passenger traffic TOTAL OF HAZARD FACTORS 16 in each region. At present, in the U.S., + HISTORICAL UNREST FACTORS this score ranges from 4 to 5.15. The regional risk code is applied only to EXPOSURE FACTORS type 1 volcanoes and those type 0 Log10 of Volcano Population Index (VPI) volcanoes that have produced explosive 3.19 at 30 km eruptions. >Calculated with LandScan population Power infrastructure database. Visitor statistics for volcanoes 0 >Is there power infrastructure (e.g., power in National Parks and other destination generation/transmission/distribution for recreation areas are added to the VPI electricity, oil, or gas) within flow hazard factor where available. zones, or in an area frequently downwind Log10 of approximate population of the volcano and close enough to 0.00 downstream or downslope considered at some risk? If yes >Population outside the 30 km VPI circle Score =1 included within the extent of Holocene Transportation infrastructure flow deposits or reasonable inundation 1 >Is there transportation infrastructure modeling.This factor only used with (e.g. port facilities, rail lines, major roads) volcanoes with a lahar hazard (e.g. within flowage hazard zones, or in an Cascade stratovolcanoes) or significant area frequently downwind of the volcano lava flow hazard (e.g. Mauna Loa). and close enough to considered at some Historical fatalities risk? If yes 0 >If yes, and a permanent population is still Score = 1 present Score = 1 MAKUSHIN HAZARD PROFILE MAKUSHIN HAZARD + EXPOSURE ANALYSIS Major development or sensitive areas 1 >Are there major developments or sensitive areas threatened (e.g., National Park facilities, flood control projects, government facilities, developed tourist/ recreation facilities, manufacturing or other significant economic activity)? If yes Score = 1 Volcano is a significant part of a 0 populated island > Holocene volcanic deposits cover >25% of land mass. If yes Score = 1 TOTAL OF 9.5 EXPOSURE FACTORS First total x second total = Relative Threat Ranking 16 x 9.5 = 152 MAKUSHIN HAZARD PROFILE GLACIER PK HAZARD + EXPOSURE ANALYSIS HAZARDS FACTORS Explosive activity 0 > If explosive activity (VEI ≥ 3) within the last Volcano Type 500 years 1 >If volcano type is cinder cone, basaltic Score = 1 field, small shield, or fissure vents: Major explosive activity Score = 0 1 >If volcano type is stratocone, lava domes, > If major explosive activity (VEI ≥ 4) within complex volcano, maar or caldera: last 5,000 years Score = 1 Score = 1 Holocene pyroclastic flows Maximum Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 1 > If maximum known VEI ≤ 2 >If yes Score = 0 Score = 1 >If maximum known VEI = 3 or 4 Holocene lahars Score = 1 1 >If Holocene lahars have traveled beyond >If maximum known VEI = 5 or 6 the flanks and reached populated areas Score = 2 Score =1 > If maximum known VEI ≥ 7 Score = 3 Holocene lava flows >If no maximum VEI is listed by GVP and if 0 > If Holocene lava flows have traveled volcano type = 0 beyond the immediate eruption site Score = 0 or flanks and reached populated areas >If no maximum VEI is listed by GVP but Score =1 volcano type = 1 Holocene tsunami(s) Score = 1 0 >If no known Holocene eruptions and the >Has it produced a tsunami within the volcano is not a silicic caldera system Holocene? If yes Score = 0 Score = 1 Hydrothermal explosion potential Eruption recurrence 0 3 > If eruption interval is 1-99 years >If the volcano had Holocene phreatic Score = 4 explosive activity, and/or has thermal > 100 – 1,000 years features that are extensive enough to Score = 3 pose a potential for explosive activity > 1,000 - 4,999 years Score =1 Score =2 Sector collapse potential > 5,000-10,000 years, or if no Holocene 1 >If the volcano has produced a sector eruptions but it is a large-volume restless collapse in Quaternary-Holocene time silicic system that has erupted in the last and has re-built its edifice, or, has high 100,000 years relief, steep flanks and demonstrated or Score = 1 inferred alteration >If no known Holocene eruption Score = 1 Score = 0 Primary lahar source 1 >If volcano has a source of permanent water/ice on edifice, water volume > 106 m3: Score = 1 GLACIER PEAK HAZARD PROFILE GLACIER PK HAZARD + EXPOSURE ANALYSIS HISTORICAL UNREST FACTORS Historical evacuations 0 >If yes, and a permanent population is still Observed seismic unrest present 0 >Since the last eruption, in the absence Score = 1 of eruptive activity, within 20 km of the volcanic edifice? If yes Local aviation exposure 2 Score = 1 >If any type volcano is within 50 km of a jet-service airport Observed ground deformation Score = 1 0 >Since the last eruption, in the absence >If a Type 1 volcano is within 300 km of a of eruptive activity, inflation or other jet-service airport evidence of magma injection? If yes Score = 1 Score = 1 >If a Type 1 volcano is within 300 km of a major international airport Observed fumarolic or magmatic 1 Score = 2 degassing >If none of these criteria are met >Since the last eruption, in the absence Score = 0 of eruptive activity, either heat source or magmatic gases? If yes Regional aviation exposure Score = 1 5.04 >This score is based on the log10 of approximate daily passenger traffic TOTAL OF HAZARD FACTORS 11 in each region. At present, in the U.S., + HISTORICAL UNREST FACTORS this score ranges from 4 to 5.15. The regional risk code is applied only to EXPOSURE FACTORS type 1 volcanoes and those type 0 Log10 of Volcano Population Index (VPI) volcanoes that have produced explosive 2.42 at 30 km eruptions. >Calculated with LandScan population Power infrastructure database. Visitor statistics for volcanoes 0 >Is there power infrastructure (e.g., power in National Parks and other destination generation/transmission/distribution for recreation areas are added to the VPI electricity, oil, or gas) within flow hazard factor where available. zones, or in an area frequently downwind Log10 of approximate population of the volcano and close enough to 4.66 downstream or downslope considered at some risk? If yes >Population outside the 30 km VPI circle Score =1 included within the extent of Holocene Transportation infrastructure flow deposits or reasonable inundation 0 >Is there transportation infrastructure modeling.This factor only used with (e.g. port facilities, rail lines, major roads) volcanoes with a lahar hazard (e.g. within flowage hazard zones, or in an Cascade stratovolcanoes) or significant area frequently downwind of the volcano lava flow hazard (e.g.
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