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Evidence from Election Programmes A University of Sussex DPhil thesis Available online via Sussex Research Online: http://eprints.sussex.ac.uk/ This thesis is protected by copyright which belongs to the author. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Please visit Sussex Research Online for more information and further details MASS-ELITE DIMENSIONS OF SUPPORT FOR THE EU IN BULGARIA (1989-2007) Lyubka G. Savkova University of Sussex Thesis submitted as required for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Falmer, Brighton STATEMENT I hereby declare that this thesis, whether in the same or different form, has not been previously submitted and will not be submitted, in whole or in part, to another University for the award of any other degree. Signature ……………………..... ii To my family and those who had the patience to wait for me iii UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX Lyubka Savkova Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Mass-Elite Dimensions of Support for the EU in Bulgaria (1989-2007) Summary This research studies mass-elite dimensions of support for the EU in Bulgaria. The scope is to fill a missing gap in the existing literatures on public opinion and party positions on European integration providing an in-depth study on a specific case of Central and Eastern Europe before accession. In order to present the most comprehensive study, the research employs quantitative and qualitative research methodologies in the form of cross tabulations of public opinion surveys, contents and discourse analysis of election programmes, parliamentary debates and elite interviews. The main research question is what the level of support was for the EU at mass and elite levels in Bulgaria during the accession process, and what the relationship between them was. The results are likely to be valid well beyond the specific interest of the research in all current member states and candidate countries. The main conclusions drawn from this project are that in Bulgaria the utilitarian and proxy models of support explain well the high degree of public support for EU membership before accession and in that respect Bulgaria conforms to the analysis of past academic contributions on public opinion in Central and Eastern Europe. At elite level European integration was perceived positively and debated in broad terms until the Copenhagen criteria for accession were formulated. In the latter part of the transition EU membership was established as a valence issue in Bulgarian party politics but the parties differed in their visions of the EU according to ideology, their coalition potential and positions in the party system. Moreover, the level of support for the EU in Bulgaria was influenced by internal (domestic) and external (EU related) factors associated with European integration. Chapters 2 and 3 of the thesis provide a contextual framework for the empirical chapters by describing the environment in which support for the EU in Bulgaria was formed and developed. Chapters 4, 5 and 6 analyse the public and elite debates on European integration. The concluding Chapter 7 builds upon the thesis’ findings by suggesting new avenues for research. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis is the result of a series of meetings and discussions with my supervisors, Professor Aleks Szczerbiak and Professor Paul Taggart at the Sussex European Institute, University of Sussex. Without their guidance, patience, staunch support and encouragement from the drafting of the original project outline to the completion of the manuscript this project would not have materialised. My endless gratitude is to them. The dedication, understanding, kindness and support they have given me every step of the way has set a high standard for me to follow in academia. For this reason my deepest and sincere appreciation is reserved to them. I am also indebted to colleagues I have met at conferences and SEI organised events that have commented and provided valuable feedback on parts of my thesis. I would like to thank Prof. Paul Lewis, Karen Henderson, Dr. Maria Spirova, Prof. Geoffrey Pridham, Dr. Rumyana Kolarova, Dragomir Stoyanov, Prof. Georgi Dimitrov, Dr.Cristina Chiva as well as Prof. Paul Webb, Dr. Dan Hough and Dr. Tim Bale from SEI. At Sussex I have met many friends that have made my research enjoyable and a little less stressful at times. I keep fond memories of the times I spent together with Dan Keith, Sobrina Edwards, Simona Guerra, Zerrin Torun, Sally Marthaler and Monika Bil as well as many of the students I was fortunate to teach who have kept in touch after I left Brighton. My friends Millie Ferguson and Iva and Boyko Boykovi have been of tremendous support to me in times of crisis and need. Their down to earth approach to life has allowed me to move on and complete this research in the face of many obstacles and uncertainty. Other friends I have in Bulgaria have provided assistance at earlier stages of my research. I would like to thank Anna and Zdravko Zdravkovi and Rilka Mironova for their life long friendship and encouragement. v I gratefully acknowledge the time and assistance I have received from the politicians who agreed to be interviewed for this research as well as the library staff from at the National Assembly library and the Bulgarian National library in Sofia in locating the election programmes of the parties and parliamentary debates. Dr. Krasimira Rainova from the National library has helped me with many requests to arrange photocopies of transcripts and find materials beyond the call of duty. I dedicate this thesis to my parents, Tsvete and Georgi, my sister Maria and everyone who believed in me and had the patience to wait for me at the final stage of research. My parents have nurtured all the qualities I needed to successfully undertake such a lengthy project, especially persistence and faith. As the research was coming to an end my life was made happier and complete by the presence of my partner, Yau Lin, who completed his PhD at Sussex. His encouragement, hands-on support at all times, love, care and understanding were indispensable to the fulfilment of this project. His interest in Bulgaria made it so much more worthwhile to write on the topic. Many of the historical events discussed in Chapters 2 and 3 of the thesis that relate to the formation and development of the Bulgarian party system and the process of accession negotiations for EU membership such as the break up of communism, the Roundtable Talks, the election of the former monarch, Simeon II to power, the decisions of the European Councils in Copenhagen and Helsinki, the signing of the Accession Treaty, I have witnessed as an adolescent in Bulgaria or as an informed observer in the UK. The scale and magnitude of the changes that took place during the period of transition is more dramatic than can be described in a scientific text. It is the ordinary people that made the most sacrifices to realise the goal of EU membership and it is their efforts that this research endeavours to honour. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1.1 Scope of Research 1 1.2 Objectives and Relevance 3 1.3 Literature Review 5 1.3.1 Literature on Transitions, Democratisation and Party System Development in Central and Eastern Europe 5 1.3.2 Literature on the Eastern Enlargements 8 1.3.3 Literature on Public Opinion on European Integration 10 1.3.4 Literature on Party Manifestos and Parliamentary Debates 15 1.4 Methodology and Sources 20 1.5 Research Questions, Dependent Variable, Hypotheses and Basic Arguments 21 1.6 Constraints and Limitations 25 1.7 Thesis Structure and Outline 26 PART ONE CHAPTER 2 Formation and Development of the Bulgarian Party System during the Transition Period from Communism to Democracy (1989-2007) 2.1 Introduction and Literature Review 30 2.2 Stages of Party System Development in Bulgaria 38 2.2.1 Stage One – Consensus Building in a Multi-Party System 39 2.2.2 Stage Two – the Emergence of Ideological Bi-Polarity 48 2.2.3 Stage Three – Coalition Building in a Multi-Party System and the Emergence of Anti-System Parties 68 2.3 Conclusions 77 vii CHAPTER 3 Historical Overview of the Enlargements of the European Union 3.1 Introduction and Literature Review 80 3.2 The Role of the European Community in the Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe (1989-1993) 90 3.3 Pre-Accession Strategy for the European Union Enlargements to the East (1993- 1997) 95 3.4 Accession Negotiations and Post-Accession Monitoring (1997-2007) 102 3.5 European Integration and the Bulgarian Experience 108 3.6 Conclusions 113 PART TWO CHAPTER 4 Public Support for European Integration in Bulgaria before Accession to the European Union 4.1 Introduction and Literature Review 116 4.1.1 Utilitarian and Economic Models of Support for European Integration 122 4.1.2 Cognitive Mobilisation and Value Based Models of Support for European Integration 131 4.1.3 Proxy Models of Support for European Integration 135 4.2 Methodology 142 4.2.1 The Data Set 142 4.2.2 The Method 145 4.2.3 Dependent Variable 148 4.2.4 Independent Variables and Hypotheses 150 4.2.4.1 Utilitarian and Cognitive Variables, Economic Benefits from EU Membership and Demographic Characteristics 150 4.2.4.2 Political Proxy Variables: Party Cues 151 4.2.4.3 Identity
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