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Sunny Optical Technology 3 OCTOBER 2013 HINITIATIONONG KONG / T ECHNOLOGY HARDWARE & EQUIPMENT SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNO LOGY 2382 HK HOW WE DIFFER FROM CONSENSUS MARKET RECS TARGET PRICE HKD8.30 TARGET PRICE (%) (15.8) POSITIVE 17 HOLD CLOSE HKD8.26 EPS 2013 (%) (12.8) NEUTRAL 8 UP/DOWNSIDE +0.5% HKD % EPS 2014 (%) ( 27.3) NEGATIVE 1 Camera module leader KEY STOCK DATA YE Dec (RMB m) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 3,984 5,860 7,373 9,196 n Beneficiary of Chinese smartphone boom We initiate coverage on Sunny Optical with a HOLD rating and target Rec. net profit 346 410 460 524 price of HKD8.3. Sunny is China’s leading optical components and Recurring EPS (RMB) 0.36 0.41 0.44 0.50 products manufacturer and the largest camera module producer for EPS growth (%) 26.5 14.7 5.5 14.0 smartphones in China. While we expect it to benefit from the Chinese Recurring P/E (x) 18.1 15.8 15.0 13.1 smartphone boom, we think most positives are now priced in. Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 n Looking for vertical integration in lenses EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6 8.3 6.2 5.0 Sunny aims to improve its high-resolution handset lens production Price/book (x) 2.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 and R&D ability, and targets 40% in-house production for handset Net debt/Equity (%) (21.8) (35.9) (33.0) (39.1) lens and 35% for 5MP+ lenses. With more design difficulty in 8MP+ ROE (%) 19.3 16.0 13.6 13.9 lenses, it may take time for the company to improve yield rates. Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 12 147 n Positives in the price; we prefer Largan 10 Sunny’s share price has surged 60% ytd and outperformed the 97 market 61%. The stock is trading at 15.8x/15.0x our FY13/14E 8 47 earnings, a premium to peers. We think the risk-reward is less 6 attractive. We prefer Largan Precision (3008 TT; BUY; CP: TWD990; 4 (3) (HKD) Sunny Optical Technology Rel to MSCI Hong Kong (%) TP: TWD1155) in the phone camera space for its better profitability Share price performance 1 Month 3 Month 12 Month and growth outlook. Absolute (%) (4.1) (16.1) 92.1 n Consensus estimates look aggressive Relative to country (%) (9.0) (25.0) 80.4 We believe Sunny will benefit from pixel migration. Nevertheless, Next results March 2014 more R&D and capex expansion may weigh on margins in the near Mkt cap (USD m) 926 term. Our earnings projections are below consensus as we factor in 3m avg daily turnover (USD m) 10.3 the recent share dilution and lower margin assumptions. Free float (%) 78 Camera module shipments and % of internal lens supply Major shareholder Sun Xu Ltd. (42.15%) 12m high/low (HKD) 11.56/4.18 (m units) Internal handset lens shipment (LHS) (%) 40 % of camera module shipment (RHS) 80 3m historic vol. (%) 58.5 ADR ticker - 60 ADR closing price (USD) - 20 40 Issued shares (m) 869 20 Sources: Bloomberg consensus; BNP Paribas estimates 0 0 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E Sources: Bloomberg consensus; BNP Paribas estimates Laura Chen [email protected] +886 2 8729 7052 Our research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page. PREPARED BY NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S): BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES (TAIWAN) LTD THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND AT APPENDIX ON PAGE 18 Sunny Optical Technology 2382 HK Laura Chen Investment thesis Catalyst We believe Sunny will benefit from smartphone growth in Sunny has become more aggressive in its move to higher China and other emerging market, as well as pixel migration. resolution products and vertical integration in lenses to We expect Sunny Optical to enjoy an earnings CAGR of 13% enhance its margins and ASP. In 1H13, 17.7% of its camera during 2013-2015. While it is already the biggest camera modules shipments were over 8MP (from about 5% in 2012) , module supplier in China, it also aims to vertically integrate in which we estimate will reach 20%+ in 2H13. lenses and is looking for more applications in different markets. The company has become more aggressive in Nonetheless, the current in-sourced lens for Sunny’s camera capex expansion from this year as it looks to migrate to modules is mainly 5MP. Due to the capex expansion from higher resolution products. Nevertheless, there may be a 2013, this mix may weigh on margins before the technology learning curve to improve yield rates and quality. We are also fully migrates. We therefore forecast a gradual decline in seeing more margin pressure in the near term due to rising GM/OPM to 15%/7% in FY15, from 18.6%/9% in FY12. costs. We project a gradual trend down in OPM during 2012- 2015. Risks to our call Key downside risks are: 1) weaker-than-expected Trading at the high end of its historical average and industry smartphone demand, especially in China; and 2) faster-than- PER, we think all the positives are already priced in. Our TP expected ASP decline that outpaces the technology of HKD8.3 is based on a 2014 PER target of 15x, which we migration. Upside risks are stronger-than-expected demand think is reasonable relative to peers (see Exhibit 10) and it is from China and international customers and higher-than- also at the stock’s low-end PER of past one year. expected revenue contribution from 8MP+ products. Company background Key assumptions Sunny Optical is China’s leading optical components and 2013E 2014E 2015E products manufacturer. It is currently the largest camera (m units) (m units) (m units) module producer for smartphones in China. Its major Handset lens sets (exc. Internal) 26.2 39.4 37.3 customers include Huawei, Lenovo, Oppo, Ginoee and Tinno. Handset camera module 149.5 186.8 215.3 In addition to camera modules, it produces optical components and instruments. Source: BNP Paribas estimates Principal activities, Revenue by product segment 2013E Earnings sensitivity ----- Base ----- ----- Best ----- ----- Worst ----- Optical Optical 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 instrument 3.6% components Sales (RMB b) 5.86 7.37 5.97 7.55 5.75 7.19 18.7% Change (%) 1.8 2.4 (1.8) (2.4) Camera module spmt gwth 54.70 25.00 58.70 29.00 50.70 21.00 Change (%) 4 4 (4) (4) OPM 7.90 7.20 8.90 8.20 6.90 6.20 Optoelectronic Change (%) 1 1 (1) (1) porducts 77.7% EPS (RMB) 0.41 0.44 0.47 0.5 0.36 0.37 Change (%) 13.8 15.9 (13.3) (15.3) Key executives Source: BNP Paribas estimates Title A 4% increase/decrease in handset camera module Liaoning Ye Chairman shipment growth, others unchanged, will Yang Sun CEO increase/decrease the FY13/14 EPS forecast by Kewu Dong Vice President 1.7%/2.3%, and sales by 1.8%/2.4%. The effect of OPM changes is larger. A 1 % increase/decrease in OPM alone would increase/decrease FY13/14E EPS by 11.8%/13.3%. http://www.sunnyoptical.com/ 2 BNP PARIBAS 3 OCTOBER 2013 Sunny Optical Technology 2382 HK Laura Chen Leading camera module maker in China We initiate coverage of Sunny with a HOLD rating and target price of HKD8.3. Sunny is China’s leading optical components and products manufacturer. Founded in 1984 and listed in 2007, it is currently the largest camera module producer for smartphones in China. Its top five customers are Huawei, Lenovo, Oppo, Ginoee and Tinno, accounting for 30%-35% of sales in 1H13. It designs and manufactures three major kinds of products, namely optical components (such as glass spherical and aspherical lenses, handset lens sets, plane products, vehicle, infrared and other lens sets), optoelectronic products (such as handset camera modules, smart TV video modules, security cameras and other optoelectronic modules) and optical instruments (such as microscopes, optical measuring instruments and various optical analytical instruments). Better R&D capability, increasing vertical integration, economies of scale and bond relationships with Chinese top-tier handset makers are key strengths that we believe will ensure strong growth for Sunny through 2015. EXHIBIT 1: Product segment summary Segments Optoelectronic products Optical components Optical instruments Products and applications Camera modules Lens (DSC, handset, Microscopic / Analytical (handset, tablet, smart TVs) vehicle) instruments Sales contribution in 1H13 76.1% 20.2% 3.7% Gross margin in 1H13 12.1% 22.8% 36.7% Key customers Huawei DSC: Samsung, Carl Zeiss ZTE Panasonic, Nikon, Sony Optika Coolpad Amscope Handsets : Sharp, Lenovo Olympus Truly, Kerr, Global Oppo Optics Source: Company EXHIBIT 2: Revenue breakdown by application - increasing contribution from handset-related products EXHIBIT 3: Product summary by revenue (RMB m) Handset related Digital camera related (RMB m) Optical components Optoelectronic products 4,500 Vehicle lens sets Optical instrumuents 7,000 Optical instruments 4,000 Others 6,000 3,500 5,000 3,000 2,500 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,000 1,000 1,000 500 0 0 2010 2011 2012 1H13 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Source: Company Source: Company; BNP Paribas estimates 3 BNP PARIBAS 3 OCTOBER 2013 Sunny Optical Technology 2382 HK Laura Chen Beneficiary of smartphone boom Thanks to a promising smartphone growth outlook for Chinese makers, we expect Sunny to enjoy an earnings CAGR of 13% during 2013-2015.
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