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Taiwan Downstream Sector 6M 2020 Review: EMS Piling up Raw Material Inventory

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Taiwan Downstream Sector 6M 2020 Review: EMS Piling up Raw Material Inventory 3 September 2020 Equity Research Asia Pacific | Taiwan Taiwan Downstream Sector 6M 2020 review: EMS piling up raw material inventory IT Hardware | Quarterly Figure 1: PCB still led the EPS growth Research Analysts (NT$) 6M20 6M19 Pauline Chen 20 886 2 2715 6323 18 [email protected] 16 14 Angela Pan 12 886 2 27156352 10 [email protected] 8 6 4 2 0 Lens Passives Battery Hinge Power Cooling Connector Casing PC com PCB HS ex lens Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 6M 2020 financial data from 131 sample downstream (components/EMS/IPC) companies showed (1) revenue growth acceleration, except lens, IC substrate, auto, and IPC; (2) profit recovery from COVID-19 lows, with power supply and CCL reporting record-high GM in 6M20; (3) nine out of 12 companies with record-high GM in 6M20 were PC/NB related, thanks to very favourable pricing/cost structure driven by WFH; (4) concerning inventory data, with EMS seeing a spike in raw materials days, vs relatively stable days in WIP and finished goods, and components’ finished goods inventory days still close to record-high level (only two days below); (5) YoY OPM improvement in most sub-sectors, except audio components, auto, and IPC; (6) IPC relatively underperformed EMS, given the former’s no revenue/OPM recovery, higher capex/labour intensity, and higher inventory days (from both raw material and finished goods). Stock calls: The set of data suggests sequential but sub-seasonal revenue growth in 3Q, as EMS inventory suggests that part of the supply chain strength is driven by EMS’ cautiousness to pile up raw material inventory as much as possible to avoid any supply constraints. The tighter restrictions on Huawei could also lead to a pause in order momentum, with base-station redesign (to less complicated spec) and smartphone market share shift (with O/V/X revising up orders and continued order strength in Apple/Samsung). We prefer diversified plays (Sinbon/BizLink/Delta) to mitigate single customer/market risks, and see value in Largan, for a technology leader in a multi-year upgrade cycle. We think caution is warranted for IC substrates, given Huawei uncertainties and valuation back to prior cycle peak but margin still way below. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 3 September 2020 Focus Charts Figure 2: Revenue comparison (6M 2020) Figure 3: Components rising as % of EMS’ op profit (NT$mn) Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS) Components as of EMS op Ex-passive components 350,000 20% 350% 300% 300,000 10% 250,000 250% 0% 200,000 200% -10% 150,000 150% -20% 100,000 100% 50,000 -30% 50% 0 -40% 0% Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar - - - - - - - - - - - - - 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: Operating profit comparison (6M 2020) Figure 5: Component inventory days down from record high (NT$mn) operating profit (LHS) OPM (RHS) (days) component EMS 25,000 50% 80 45% 70 20,000 40% 35% 60 15,000 30% 25% 50 10,000 20% 40 15% 5,000 10% 30 5% Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar 20 Mar 0 0% - - - - - - - - - - - - - 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: EPS comparison Figure 7: Capex comparison (6M 2020) (NT$mn) (NT$) 6M19 EPS (LHS) 6M20 EPS (LHS) YoY (RHS) capex (LHS) capex-to-sales (RHS) 20.00 80% 40,000 30% 18.00 60% 35,000 20% 16.00 40% 30,000 14.00 10% 12.00 20% 25,000 10.00 0% 0% 20,000 8.00 -20% -10% 6.00 15,000 -40% -20% 4.00 10,000 2.00 -60% -30% 0.00 -80% 5,000 0 -40% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Taiwan Downstream Sector 2 3 September 2020 6M 2020 review: Sub-sector highlights 6M 2020 financial data from 131 sample downstream (components/EMS/IPC) companies showed: (1) revenue growth acceleration, except lens, IC substrate, auto, and IPC; (2) profit recovery from COVID-19 lows, with power supply and CCL reporting record-high GM in 6M20; (3) 9 out of 12 companies with record-high GM in 6M20 were PC/NB related, thanks to very favourable pricing/cost structure driven by WFH; (4) concerning inventory data, with EMS seeing a spike in raw materials days, vs relatively stable days in WIP and finished goods, and components’ finished goods inventory days still close to record-high level (only two days below); (5) YoY OPM improvement in most sub-sectors, except audio components, auto, and IPC; (6) IPC relatively underperformed EMS, given the former’s no revenue/OPM recovery, higher capex/labour intensity, and higher inventory days (from both raw material and finished goods). Stock highlights Power supply: Delta is our top pick in power supply, supported by its widening OPM gap with Lite-on Tech and Chicony, driven by passive components strength, industrial automation rebound, and better IT power supply outlook. Lite-on Tech regained its No.2 position in terms of profitability, given higher exposure to WFH. Risks: end demand, international COVID-19 outbreak, FX volatility (NTD appreciation). Handset components: The smartphone datapoints remain bumpy, given brands’ aggressive push for cost-affordable models and tighter restrictions on Huawei. We, however, stay with our positive view on Largan, given multi-year main camera lens upgrade. We think Merry’s leading ODM position in headset might become less meaningful in booming TWS market when more IT brands are joining the competition. For TXC, we will monitor the risk of Apple adding new miniaturised supplier and tighter Huawei restrictions. Risks: Slower smartphone sell through, cost down pressure to launch 5G smartphone dampening spec upgrade and international COVID-19 outbreak. Casings: The sector’s competition landscape is largely impacted by Apple’s China localisation strategy, with Casetek being privatised and Catcher’s smartphone capacity sold to Lens Tech. Risks: Apple's product demand, pricing pressure from customer/peers and international COVID-19 outbreak. PCB (printed circuit board): We think the escalating restriction on Huawei not just impacts ABF substrates but also BT/HDI, given less complicated design from its peers. We think caution is warranted for IC substrates, given Huawei uncertainties and valuation back to prior cycle peak but margin still way below. Risks: end demand, international COVID-19 outbreak, slower 5G deployment, and slower recovery of GPU/CPU or server. Connectors: We like both Sinbon/BizLink, given their diversified customer/product/end- market mix to mitigate single market/customer risks. Hu Lane’s improving near-term outlook is offset by rising copper prices. Risks: end demand, copper price, and international outbreak. EMS/IPC: EMS outlook is shadowed by Apple’s China localisation strategy, and we think Pegatron has relatively higher risks due to its lack of vertical integration capability and higher exposure to legacy models. 2020 could be a slow year for IPC sector. Risks: end demand, international COVID-19 outbreak. Taiwan Downstream Sector 3 3 September 2020 Sector valuation matrix Figure 8: Sector valuation table Company Ticker CS rating P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 Delta 2308 TT O 22.8 20.6 3.3 3.1 15% 15% LOT 2301 TT N 10.2 10.1 1.4 1.3 14% 13% Chicony 2385 TT N 11.9 10.7 2.2 2.0 19% 19% Catcher 2474 TT N 11.7 14.2 1.0 1.0 9% 7% FTC 2354 TT N 9.8 8.8 0.7 0.7 7% 8% Casetek 5264 TT O n.a. 29.5 1.2 1.3 0% 4% Largan 3008 TT O 18.7 16.3 3.2 2.8 17% 17% Merry 2439 TT N 14.6 12.9 2.5 2.3 17% 18% TXC 3042 TT N 17.4 15.4 2.7 2.5 15% 16% BizLink 3665 TT O 20.8 18.8 2.6 2.5 13% 13% Sinbon 3023 TT O 22.1 19.5 5.0 4.3 23% 22% Hu Lane 6279 TT N 16.0 12.2 1.7 1.6 10% 13% Chin Poon 2355 TT O 64.0 28.4 0.7 0.6 1% 2% Kinsus 3189 TT O 22.9 15.9 1.2 1.1 5% 7% Unimicron 3037 TT N 20.3 15.4 2.4 2.1 12% 14% Tripod 3044 TT N 10.7 9.3 1.6 1.5 15% 16% NYPCB 8046 TT N 24.0 20.8 2.6 2.4 11% 12% Topoint 8021 TT O 12.0 10.4 0.8 0.7 6% 7% Hon Hai 2317 TT O 10.9 9.5 0.9 0.8 8% 9% Pegatron 4938 TT N 9.7 10.3 1.0 1.0 11% 10% Advantech 2395 TT O 30.3 27.7 7.9 7.3 26% 26% Company Ticker CS rating Price Target EPS (NT$) EPS Growth (%) Local Local 2020 2021 2020 2021 Delta 2308 TT O 189.5 216.0 8.33 9.21 -6% 11% LOT 2301 TT N 46.1 51.0 4.51 4.56 13% 1% Chicony 2385 TT N 88.8 99.0 7.48 8.33 -6% 11% Catcher 2474 TT N 204.0 200.0 17.42 14.38 19% -17% FTC 2354 TT N 53.4 59.0 5.48 6.10 9% 11% Casetek 5264 TT O 85.1 87.5 -0.30 2.88 n.a.
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