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Another Year of Strong Growth China's Impact on the Semiconductor www.pwc.com/technology Another year of strong growth China’s impact on the Technology Institute semiconductor industry Chapter 4: Greater China 2012 update September 2012 About this report In 2004, PwC released its original report, China’s impact on the semicon- ductor industry, in response to our clients’ interest in the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry in China. Specifically, clients wanted to find out whether China’s production volumes would contribute to worldwide overcapacity and a subsequent downturn in the industry. For the past seven years, we have provided updates that included an analysis of both the semiconductor market (consumption) and industry (production). We also covered design, the value chain and possible production growth scenarios along with a number of other topics. Because the report relies on a number of data sources, we have been un- able to deliver it in full until the fourth quarter of the following year. This year, in an effort to get you this vital information in a more timely fash- ion, we have chosen to release the report in a tiered fashion. This is the fourth chapter in the series. Please note that figure and table numbering continue from the second chapter, thus the first figure in this chapter is numbered 20 rather than 1. In the coming weeks, we will release ad- ditional chapters, until we have covered as much material as in previous reports. At the end of the release period, you will be able to download a complete pdf file of the full report. Please visit www.pwc.com/chinasemicon to read online or download this year’s report. Individual chapters are also available: 1. Exceptional relative performance 5. Growing capabilities Market and industry overview Manufacturing 2. Strong but variable growth 6. Supporting growth and China’s semiconductor industry measuring progress 3. Noticeable growth Government and production Design in China growth scenarios 4. Undergoing a structural shift Greater China Greater China, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, accounted for more than half of the worldwide semiconductor consumption market in 2011. The Greater China semiconductor industry has performed better than the worldwide industry, growing 34% compared to a worldwide 17% growth over the last four years. China’s consumption of semiconductors has grown to be almost fifteen times that of Taiwan in 2011, while Taiwan’s IC industry declined to slightly less than two and a quarter times that of China in 2011. There were 30 Greater China OEM, ODM and EMS companies among the worldwide top 100 semiconductor consumers in 2011 based upon Purchasing TAM. Greater China continues to dominate contract or outsourced semiconductor manufacturing. Undergoing a structural shift Greater China’s consumption and of talent, technology and capital from production of semiconductors Taiwan. This chapter highlights the both grew to record levels in 2011. latest market developments in Taiwan’s Measured in US dollars, Greater China, semiconductor industry and its which includes mainland China, interactions with China. Hong Kong and Taiwan, accounted for more than half of the worldwide Greater China accounted for semiconductor consumption market Mixed outlook for 2012 in 2011, while it produced less than a more than half of the third of the worldwide semiconductor Taiwan’s IC industry revenues worldwide semiconductor industry revenues. as a whole (including design, consumption market in manufacturing, assembly and testing) Taiwan is one of the world’s largest fell 11.7% to NT$1,562bn (US$53bn) 2011, while it produced suppliers of semiconductors and in 2011, according to the Taiwan less than a third of the a key pillar of the Greater China Semiconductor Industry Association semiconductor industry. Its growing (TSIA). Between the natural disasters worldwide semiconductor economic relationship with China in Japan and Thailand and the overall industry revenues. and progressive easing of cross-Strait impact of a weak global economy, last investment restrictions have helped year presented a number of major accelerate the integration of the challenges for the semiconductor Taiwanese and Chinese semiconductor industry in Taiwan and worldwide. industries, largely through the infusion Chapter 4: Greater China 4.1 Mixed outlook for 2012 4.6 Taiwan allows higher Chinese investment in tech sector 4.2 Foundries aggressively investing in new generation capacity 4.7 China removed from Taiwan’s SHTC watch list 4.4 Ambitious assembly and testing expansion plans 4.7 Greater China’s impact on the semiconductor industry 4.4 Taiwan’s two largest IC design houses to merge 4.11 Greater China’s impact on semiconductor demand 4.5 DRAM industry shake-up underway For the time being, Taiwan’s Foundries aggressively market domination of the global investing in new semiconductor foundry and assembly generation capacity and testing sectors is assured. Taiwan currently has an estimated two- Taiwan’s dedicated IC foundry sector thirds global market share of the IC is expected to enjoy healthy growth chip contract manufacturing sector, in 2012, boosted by strong demand and its IC packaging and testing for smart mobile devices. Taiwan’s industry ranks first in the world, with two largest chip makers, Taiwan over 50% market share. However, Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Taiwanese fabless IC designers face (TSMC) and United Microelectronics increasing competition in the Chinese Corp. (UMC), are aggressively market from mainland rivals, while expanding production capacity to local DRAM chip manufacturers are safeguard their market positions. Both struggling to stay afloat. companies embarked on new multi- billion 12-inch fab construction in the The latest TSIA forecasts, made in second quarter of 2012 in southern August 2012, project a 6.9% annual Taiwan, aiming to provide sufficient increase in Taiwan’s IC industry 28-nanometer and below capacity in revenues for 2012. Microsoft’s release the years to come to meet consumer of Windows 8, along with still-strong demand for high-end chips. demand for smartphones, tablet PCs and other mobile devices, will The unexpected strength of demand help drive industry growth this year. for smartphones and tablets in Offsetting some of these positives is early 2012 prompted TSMC to raise the continued weakness in the global its capital expenditure budget for economy, which could potentially the year to between US$8bn and dampen demand for IC chips through US$8.5bn from the original US$6bn, to the year-end and into 2013. Still, and exceeding the record-high of semiconductor capital investment is US$7.3bn it spent in 2011. The projected to continue apace this year proposed investment is intended to and to be directed towards advanced meet growing customer demands for technologies in wafer processing and its 28-nanometer technology process packaging assembly. and expedite development of the more advanced 20-nanometer node. TSMC is also ramping up its capital investment and spending on R&D in an effort to fend off growing competition from new rivals as they vie for a bigger share of the booming mobile market. Taiwan currently has an estimated two-thirds global market share of the IC chip contract manufacturing sector, and its IC packaging and testing industry ranks first in the world, with over 50% market share. Another year of strong growth: Greater China | China’s impact on the semiconductor industry—2012 update | 4.2 TSMC has dominated the global chip As for UMC, Taiwan’s second-largest foundry sector since the middle of pure-play foundry has set its capital the last decade, but competition in expenditure budget at US$2 billion the market is on the rise. US-based for 2012, which is 25% higher than GlobalFoundries is emerging as a the US$1.6bn it spent in 2011. In rival in the IC foundry business, while May 2012, UMC announced plans to Intel and Samsung Electronics, which spend US$8bn over the next few years mainly make chips for their own to expand its advanced chipmaking brands, are pushing into the market capacity, with the aim of boosting its for chips used in mobile devices. 28-nanometer chip production and Samsung, already the world’s largest establishing a solid foundation for memory chip maker, is planning large 20-nanometer chips and beyond. One investments in its own capacity to month earlier, it had also unveiled expand into non-memory chip and plans to raise its investment stake foundry chip making, including the in Chinese wafer foundry Hejian building of a US$7bn NAND flash Technology to 80–90%, up from its memory plant in China, its biggest current holding of 35%, subject to overseas chip investment. approval of the Taiwanese authorities. The expansion plans of TSMC and UMC have also attracted the Taiwan’s contract chip makers are also benefitting investment support of several foreign from the current shake-out in Japan’s semiconductor IC designers and packagers. Last industry as it grapples with costly restructuring. November, UK chip designer ARM Holdings opened an R&D center in the Hsinchu Science Park and, in July In an effort to gain leverage in a 2012, signed a multi-year agreement highly competitive market, TSMC with TSMC to co-develop technology announced in early August 2012 that beyond the 20-nanometer process. it would invest €838m (US$1bn) to (The month before UMC said it had acquire a 5% equity stake in Dutch licensed process technology from firm ASML, the world’s top chip IBM to expedite the development equipment maker. (The announcement of 20-nanometer chips). Also, came within weeks of both Intel and Singaporean chip packaging and Samsung signing similar investment testing firm STATS ChipPAC has agreements with ASML.) Under the expanded its wafer bump and wafer deal, TSMC will also invest €276m level chip scale packaging facilities in (US$400m) over the next five years Hsinchu, which can now provide wafer in ASML’s R&D programs, including bumping and associated leading-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography packaging services for 12-inch wafers.
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