How Clean and Green is New Zealand Tourism? Lifecycle and Future Environmental Impacts Murray Patterson Massey University Garry McDonald Landcare Research Landcare Research Science Series No. 24 How Clean and Green is New Zealand Tourism? Lifecycle and Future Environmental Impacts Murray Patterson New Zealand Centre for Ecological Economics Massey University Palmerston North Garry McDonald Landcare Research Palmerston North Landcare Research Science Series No. 24 Manaaki Whenua PRESS Lincoln, Canterbury, New Zealand 2004 2 © Landcare Research New Zealand Ltd 2004 This information may be copied or reproduced electronically and distributed to others without limitation, provided Landcare Research New Zealand Limited is acknowledged as the source of information. Under no circumstances may a charge be made for this information without the express permission of Landcare Research New Zealand Limited. CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATION Patterson, M. G. (Murray Graham), 1955- How clean and green is New Zealand tourism? : lifecycle and future environmental impacts / Murray Patterson [and] Garry McDonald. — Lincoln, N.Z. : Manaaki Whenua Press, 2004. (Landcare Research science series, ISSN 1172-269X ; no. 24) ISBN 0-478-09359-4 I. McDonald, Garry C. II. Title. III. Series. UDC 338.48(931):504.05 Edited by Christine Bezar Layout and typesetting by Kirsty Cullen Cover design by Anouk Wanrooy Production by Catherine Montgomery Published by Manaaki Whenua Press, Landcare Research, PO Box 40, Lincoln 8152, New Zealand 3 Contents Page Summary i 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Scope of the report 1 1.2 Why assess the environmental impact of the tourism sector? 2 1.3 Rationale for this study 5 1.4 Related previous research 7 1.5 Definitions 8 1.5.1 Tourist 8 1.5.2 Tourism sector and tourism ratios 9 1.6 Systems boundaries 10 2. Integrated economic-environmental accounts of the tourism sector 11 2.1 Rationale 11 2.2 Methodology 15 2.2.1 Framework and classification systems 15 2.2.2 Analytical steps 17 2.3 Economic accounts of the tourism sector 23 2.3.1 Input-output model including the tourism sector 23 2.3.2 Tourism sector inputs and outputs 23 2.3.3 Final and intermediate demand for tourism output 26 2.3.4 Macro-economic indicators of the tourism sector performance 27 2.4 Environmental accounts of the tourism sector 33 2.4.1 Energy accounts 33 2.4.2 Carbon dioxide accounts 39 2.4.3 Water accounts 43 2.4.4 Land accounts 46 2.5 Overall environmental accounts of the tourism sector 47 2.5.1 Direct environmental pressures of the tourism sector 47 2.5.2 Direct environmental pressures per unit of GDP 50 2.5.3 Direct environmental pressures per tourist trip 52 3. Lifecycle assessment of the environmental impacts of New Zealand tourism 54 3.1 Rationale for the assessment of indirect impacts 54 3.2 Methodology 56 3.2.1 Mathematics of the calculation of ecological multipliers 56 3.2.2 Analytical steps 62 3.3 Ecological multipliers for the tourism sector 64 3.3.1 Ecological multipliers as an operational measure of eco-efficiency 64 3.3.2 Resource and pollutant multipliers for the tourism sector 65 3.3.2 Comparison of tourism ecological multipliers with other sectors 68 3.4 Lifecycle assessment diagrams 73 3.4.1 Energy inputs 73 3.4.2 Water inputs 75 3.4.3 Land inputs 77 3.4.4 Water outputs 79 3.4.5 Nitrate outputs 81 3.4.6 Phosphorus outputs 83 4 3.4.7 Biological oxygen demand 85 3.4.8 Carbon dioxide emissions 87 4. Projections of future environmental impacts of the tourism sector 89 4.1 Rationale and conceptual framework 89 4.2 Methodology 92 4.2.1 Forecasting philosophy 92 4.2.2 Analytical steps 96 4.3 Projected tourism activity (1997–2007) 97 4.3.1 International tourism activity and its determinants 97 4.3.2 Domestic tourism activity and its determinants 101 4.4 Projected technical change (1997–2007) 102 4.4.1 Technical change ratios for the tourism sector 102 4.4.2 How the technical change ratios were calculated 107 4.5 Projections of resource use and pollution by the tourism sector (1997–2007) 110 4.5.1 Characteristics of the projections 110 4.5.2 Energy use 112 4.5.3 Water use 115 4.5.4 Land use 118 4.5.5 Water discharges 121 4.5.6 Nitrate discharges 124 4.5.7 Phosphorus discharges 127 4.5.8 Biological oxygen demand 130 4.5.9 Carbon dioxide emissions 133 Acknowledgements References 137 Appendices Appendix A Input-output model of New Zealand economy including a tourism sector 148 Appendix B Energy use by the tourism sector 154 Appendix C Numerical example of the calculation of the ecological multiplier and its component parts 157 Appendix D Actual and forecasted direct energy intensities for various sectors of the New Zealand economy 160 Appendix E Projections of Resource Use, Pollutants and Employment Generated by the New Zealand Tourism Sector, 1997–2007 165 SI units used in this report ha hectares (land area) kg kilograms (weight) kt kilotonnes (weight) m3 cubic metres (volume) MJ megajoules (106) (energy) PJ petajoules (1015) (energy) TJ terajoules (1012) (energy) t tonne(s) (weight = 1000 kg) 5 Summary Focus of the study The central argument of this report is that a broader assessment of the environmental impacts is required in order to fully evaluate the environmental performance of the tourism sector. To date, New Zealand research has focused on on-site and local-area environmental impacts of tourism activity. The overall aim of our study was to assess the indirect and future environmental effects, as well as the previously researched direct effects. This was achieved by constructing input-output economic-environmental accounts of the tourism sector. These accounts not only provide a platform for lifecycle assessment (indirect effects) and scenario analysis (future effects), but also allow environmental data to be integrated with data about the economic performance of the tourism sector. Integrated economic-environmental accounts of the tourism sector Statistics New Zealand (1999) for the first time constructed tourism satellite accounts, which described the economic operation of the tourism sector in 1997/98. In our study these economic satellite accounts were extended to cover the use of natural resources (land, energy, water) and the production of pollutants (water discharges, nitrate, biological oxygen 1 demand (BOD), phosphorus and carbon dioxide (CO2)) by the tourism sector . The reason for constructing these integrated economic-environmental accounts was to obtain an improved understanding of the economy–environment links of the tourism sector. It is argued that such a framework is critical to understanding the ecological sustainability of the tourism sector. In this study, the framework also provided a direct platform for application of a number of analytical methods, which ensured further insights into the tourism sector economy–environment interconnections: (1) Lifecycle assessment of the tourism sector, using input-output methods pioneered in the early 1970s by analysts such as Hite & Laurent (1971) and Wright (1975). (2) Eco-efficiency analysis that relates environmental “costs” to the economic “benefits” of the tourism sector. This can include simple ratios of direct benefits to direct costs for the tourism sector, or impact analysis that involves indirect benefits and indirect costs as well. (3) Comparative analysis of the environmental performance of the tourism sector with other sectors in the economy, especially using “pressure indicators” such as BOD or CO2 loading on the environment. (4) Projecting future levels of resource use and pollution in the tourism sector, as determined by the key drivers of visitor arrivals, economic growth, price effects, technical change and other such factors. Lifecycle assessment of the tourism sector Lifecycle assessment, using input-output analysis, was used to assess the indirect environmental impacts of the tourism sector in New Zealand. A new methodology was developed to quantify and depict these indirect environmental impacts by way of using lifecycle assessment diagrams. For example, a lifecycle assessment diagram could be generated that depicted direct and indirect CO2 emissions by the tourism sector (Figure S1). When international air transport (return) by overseas tourists was included, the direct CO2 emissions of the tourism sector were very considerable at 4 999 975 tonnes (t). Most of these CO2 emissions were from international aircraft (3 561 591 t), domestic aircraft (661 104 t), and other tourism activities such as accommodation and retailing (777 280 t). The total CO2 emissions from tourism within New Zealand amounted to 1 438 384 tonnes. As can be ascertained from Figure S1, the indirect CO2 emissions by the tourism sector are also significant, totalling 1 794 807 t CO2. The largest indirect category of CO2 emissions for the tourism sector relates to the infrastructure and services required to support international air travel, for example, air terminal buildings, runways, booking services and so forth. This was estimated to amount to 544 369 t CO2, but unfortunately this aggregate figure cannot be broken down any further. Next in the ranking was transport sector inputs into the tourism sector at 419 272 t CO2. Most of these were transport services purchased by the tourism sector from non-tourism operators. The purchase of food and beverages was also significant in terms of indirect CO2 emissions, with direct purchases by the tourism sector accounting for 125 207 t CO2, and another 14 224 t CO2 embodied in the purchase of food and beverages through the wholesale and retail trade sector. 1 The base year for this analysis was the financial year from 1 April 1997 to 31 March 1998. All figures reported in this Summary are for this 1997/98 financial year, if not otherwise specified.