Reconstituting Korean Security
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United Nations University Press is the publishing arm of the United Nations University. UNU Press publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals on the issues facing the United Nations and its peoples and member states, with particular emphasis upon international, regional and trans-boundary policies. The United Nations University was established as a subsidiary organ of the United Nations by General Assembly Resolution 2951 (XXVII) of 11 December 1972. It functions as an international community of scholars engaged in research, postgraduate training and the dissemination of knowledge to address the pressing global problems of human survival, development and welfare that are the concern of the United Nations and its agencies. Its activities are devoted to advancing knowledge for human security and development and are focused on issues of peace and governance and environment and sustainable development. The Univer- sity operates through a worldwide network of research and training centres and programmes and its planning and coordinating centre in Tokyo. Reconstituting Korean security Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer Edited by Hazel Smith United Nations a University Press TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS 6 United Nations University, 2007 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not nec- essarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press United Nations University, 53–70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan Tel: þ81-3-3499-2811 Fax: þ81-3-3406-7345 E-mail: [email protected] General enquiries: [email protected] http://www.unu.edu United Nations University Office at the United Nations, New York 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-2062, New York, NY 10017, USA Tel: þ1-212-963-6387 Fax: þ1-212-371-9454 E-mail: [email protected] United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Mea Rhee Printed in Hong Kong ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Reconstituting Korean security : a policy primer / edited by Hazel Smith. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-9280811445 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Nuclear nonproliferation—Korea (North) 2. Nuclear weapons—Social aspects—Korea (North) 3. National security—Korea (North) 4. Korea (North)—Foreign relations. I. Smith, Hazel, 1954– JZ5675.R43 2007 3550.0330519—dc22 2007015643 Contents Tablesandfigures..................................................... vii Acknowledgements . ............................. ix Foreword .............................................................. x Ambassador Donald P. Gregg Contributors........................................................... xiii Abbreviations ......................................................... xvi 1 ReconstitutingKoreansecuritydilemmas ....................... 1 Hazel Smith 2 CreatingKoreaninsecurity:TheUSrole ........................ 21 Bruce Cumings 3 Living with ambiguity: North Korea’s strategic weapons programmes........................................................ 43 Gary Samore and Adam Ward 4 Economic security in the DPRK . ............................. 65 Bradley O. Babson vi CONTENTS 5 Food security: The case for multisectoral and multilateral cooperation ........................................................ 82 Hazel Smith 6 The preconditions for Korean security: US policy and the legacyof1945 ..................................................... 103 Selig S. Harrison 7 The DPRK economic crisis and the ROK security dilemma . 124 Suk Lee 8 Koreansecuritydilemmas:Chinesepolicies..................... 145 Ren Xiao 9 JapanandNorthKorea– Thequestfornormalcy .............. 162 Gavan McCormack 10 Koreansecuritydilemmas:A Russianperspective.............. 182 Georgy Bulychev 11 Koreansecuritydilemmas:EuropeanUnionpolicies ........... 213 Maria Castillo Fernandez 12 Korean security dilemmas: ASEAN policies and perspective . 230 John D. Ciorciari 13 Koreansecurity:A policyprimer ................................ 253 Hazel Smith Bibliography .......................................................... 269 Index .................................................................. 285 Tables and figures Tables 1.1 Defence budgets of the parties to the Six-Party Talks, 2004 and 2005 . ........................................................ 7 1.2 DPRKdemographicindicators ................................. 11 4.1 DPRK gross national income and budget, 1990–2004 . 67 4.2 Estimatedbudgetexpenditure,1994and2004................. 71 5.1 Cereal deficits from FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply AssessmentsintheDPRK ...................................... 89 5.2 Area planted and production, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 . 90 7.1 DPRK macroeconomic performance and population: Official data,1990–2000 ................................................. 127 7.2 DPRK macroeconomic performance: Outside estimates, 1990–2000 ........................................................ 129 7.3 Yang’s estimation of the DPRK’s productivity: Total output function .......................................................... 130 7.4 Lee’s estimation of the DPRK’s productivity: Grain production function . ....................................... 130 7.5 DPRK food refugee interviews: Where are the food shortagesmostsevere?.......................................... 132 7.6 Urbanization and chronic malnourishment of children in the DPRK............................................................ 132 7.7 Trends in ROK–DPRK economic, social and cultural cooperation,1996–2002 ......................................... 139 7.8 Trends in ROK humanitarian aid to the DPRK, 1996–2002 . 139 vii viii TABLES AND FIGURES Figures 1.1 DPRK population and per capita national income, 1998– 2004.............................................................. 10 1.2 The prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age) for children under 72 months in DPRK Nutrition Assessments of 2002 and2004 ......................................................... 12 5.1 DPRK cereal production, 1995/1996–2000/2001 ............... 86 7.1 DPRK industrial production, 1946–1996 . ...................... 125 7.2 DPRK grain production, 1946–1996 ........................... 126 Acknowledgements This volume is the product of a two-year collaborative research venture that brought together contributors and a number of other participants in workshops and conferences held under the auspices of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the United Nations University (UNU) in London in May 2004 and in Beijing in December 2004. Contributors have since developed and expanded their arguments, with this volume benefiting from feedback from conference participants and anonymous peer reviewers from UNU Press. I would like to thank all the contributors who worked so hard to de- liver the chapters. I would also like to thank Ambassador Paul Beijer, Victor Cha and Kathi Zellweger, who kindly spoke at the workshops that formed an integral part of the research project. Many thanks too to Yoshie Sawada at UNU, who provided wonderful, timely and profes- sional support to this project. I would also like to thank Scott McQuade, Yoko Kojima and all at UNU Press who yet again made sure that the project passed smoothly through all the necessary publishing hurdles. This book is intended to contribute to finding ways to benefit the long- suffering people of North Korea. I hope that it will do so. Hazel Smith ix Foreword Ambassador Donald P. Gregg Chairman of the Board, The Korea Society, New York This book should come as meat and drink to those who have been look- ing for a multidisciplinary, internationally oriented approach to the many problems that will arise when North Korea slowly emerges from its self- imposed isolation. For far too long we have had only the very thin gruel of moralistic demonization of North Korea and its leaders, as practiced by neoconservatives in and around the Bush administration. Their ap- proach is centered on the fallacious theory that ‘‘regime change’’ involv- ing the removal of Kim Jong Il would make North Korea far easier to deal with. This would be no more true in North Korea than it has been in Iraq. Totalitarian leadership of any country creates a myriad of soci- etal issues that remain to be dealt with by successors, whether they are externally imposed or internally produced. Dr Hazel Smith has spent years in North Korea, dealing with humani- tarian issues, and possesses an acute sense of the textures of North Ko- rean society. In her excellent opening chapter, which offers a clear over- view of the rest of the book, Dr Smith stresses the point that ‘‘history matters.’’ Dr Smith, a UK citizen and keen observer of the US role on the Korean peninsula, past and present, is well positioned to make that point, particularly as it applies to Americans, because we Americans have a woeful tendency to think that history begins only when we be- come aware of and involved in a particular issue. For example, burial mounds on Kangwha Island, containing the bodies of hundreds of Korean soldiers blown up in their mud forts by the US naval incursion into Korea of 1871, the miserable Taft–Katsura Pact of x FOREWORD xi 1905, which opened the way for Japan’s occupation of Korea, and our arbitrary division of Korea, made in haste in 1945, are all matters known to virtually every Korean, but are ‘‘terra incognita’’ to us. For the vast majority of Americans, Korean history ‘‘begins’’ on 25 June 1950, when North Korea invaded