United Nations University Press is the publishing arm of the United Nations University. UNU Press publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals on the issues facing the United Nations and its peoples and member states, with particular emphasis upon international, regional and trans-boundary policies. The United Nations University was established as a subsidiary organ of the United Nations by General Assembly Resolution 2951 (XXVII) of 11 December 1972. It functions as an international community of scholars engaged in research, postgraduate training and the dissemination of knowledge to address the pressing global problems of human survival, development and welfare that are the concern of the United Nations and its agencies. Its activities are devoted to advancing knowledge for human security and development and are focused on issues of peace and governance and environment and sustainable development. The Univer- sity operates through a worldwide network of research and training centres and programmes and its planning and coordinating centre in Tokyo. Reconstituting Korean security
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer
Edited by Hazel Smith
United Nations a University Press
TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS 6 United Nations University, 2007
The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not nec- essarily reflect the views of the United Nations University.
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Reconstituting Korean security : a policy primer / edited by Hazel Smith. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-9280811445 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Nuclear nonproliferation—Korea (North) 2. Nuclear weapons—Social aspects—Korea (North) 3. National security—Korea (North) 4. Korea (North)—Foreign relations. I. Smith, Hazel, 1954– JZ5675.R43 2007 3550.0330519—dc22 2007015643 Contents
Tablesandfigures...... vii
Acknowledgements ...... ix
Foreword ...... x Ambassador Donald P. Gregg
Contributors...... xiii
Abbreviations ...... xvi
1 ReconstitutingKoreansecuritydilemmas ...... 1 Hazel Smith
2 CreatingKoreaninsecurity:TheUSrole ...... 21 Bruce Cumings
3 Living with ambiguity: North Korea’s strategic weapons programmes...... 43 Gary Samore and Adam Ward
4 Economic security in the DPRK ...... 65 Bradley O. Babson vi CONTENTS
5 Food security: The case for multisectoral and multilateral cooperation ...... 82 Hazel Smith
6 The preconditions for Korean security: US policy and the legacyof1945 ...... 103 Selig S. Harrison
7 The DPRK economic crisis and the ROK security dilemma . . . . 124 Suk Lee
8 Koreansecuritydilemmas:Chinesepolicies...... 145 Ren Xiao
9 JapanandNorthKorea– Thequestfornormalcy ...... 162 Gavan McCormack
10 Koreansecuritydilemmas:A Russianperspective...... 182 Georgy Bulychev
11 Koreansecuritydilemmas:EuropeanUnionpolicies ...... 213 Maria Castillo Fernandez
12 Korean security dilemmas: ASEAN policies and perspective . . 230 John D. Ciorciari
13 Koreansecurity:A policyprimer ...... 253 Hazel Smith
Bibliography ...... 269
Index ...... 285 Tables and figures
Tables 1.1 Defence budgets of the parties to the Six-Party Talks, 2004 and 2005 ...... 7 1.2 DPRKdemographicindicators ...... 11 4.1 DPRK gross national income and budget, 1990–2004 ...... 67 4.2 Estimatedbudgetexpenditure,1994and2004...... 71 5.1 Cereal deficits from FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply AssessmentsintheDPRK ...... 89 5.2 Area planted and production, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 ...... 90 7.1 DPRK macroeconomic performance and population: Official data,1990–2000 ...... 127 7.2 DPRK macroeconomic performance: Outside estimates, 1990–2000 ...... 129 7.3 Yang’s estimation of the DPRK’s productivity: Total output function ...... 130 7.4 Lee’s estimation of the DPRK’s productivity: Grain production function ...... 130 7.5 DPRK food refugee interviews: Where are the food shortagesmostsevere?...... 132 7.6 Urbanization and chronic malnourishment of children in the DPRK...... 132 7.7 Trends in ROK–DPRK economic, social and cultural cooperation,1996–2002 ...... 139 7.8 Trends in ROK humanitarian aid to the DPRK, 1996–2002 . . . 139
vii viii TABLES AND FIGURES
Figures 1.1 DPRK population and per capita national income, 1998– 2004...... 10 1.2 The prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age) for children under 72 months in DPRK Nutrition Assessments of 2002 and2004 ...... 12 5.1 DPRK cereal production, 1995/1996–2000/2001 ...... 86 7.1 DPRK industrial production, 1946–1996 ...... 125 7.2 DPRK grain production, 1946–1996 ...... 126 Acknowledgements
This volume is the product of a two-year collaborative research venture that brought together contributors and a number of other participants in workshops and conferences held under the auspices of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the United Nations University (UNU) in London in May 2004 and in Beijing in December 2004. Contributors have since developed and expanded their arguments, with this volume benefiting from feedback from conference participants and anonymous peer reviewers from UNU Press. I would like to thank all the contributors who worked so hard to de- liver the chapters. I would also like to thank Ambassador Paul Beijer, Victor Cha and Kathi Zellweger, who kindly spoke at the workshops that formed an integral part of the research project. Many thanks too to Yoshie Sawada at UNU, who provided wonderful, timely and profes- sional support to this project. I would also like to thank Scott McQuade, Yoko Kojima and all at UNU Press who yet again made sure that the project passed smoothly through all the necessary publishing hurdles. This book is intended to contribute to finding ways to benefit the long- suffering people of North Korea. I hope that it will do so.
Hazel Smith
ix Foreword Ambassador Donald P. Gregg Chairman of the Board, The Korea Society, New York
This book should come as meat and drink to those who have been look- ing for a multidisciplinary, internationally oriented approach to the many problems that will arise when North Korea slowly emerges from its self- imposed isolation. For far too long we have had only the very thin gruel of moralistic demonization of North Korea and its leaders, as practiced by neoconservatives in and around the Bush administration. Their ap- proach is centered on the fallacious theory that ‘‘regime change’’ involv- ing the removal of Kim Jong Il would make North Korea far easier to deal with. This would be no more true in North Korea than it has been in Iraq. Totalitarian leadership of any country creates a myriad of soci- etal issues that remain to be dealt with by successors, whether they are externally imposed or internally produced. Dr Hazel Smith has spent years in North Korea, dealing with humani- tarian issues, and possesses an acute sense of the textures of North Ko- rean society. In her excellent opening chapter, which offers a clear over- view of the rest of the book, Dr Smith stresses the point that ‘‘history matters.’’ Dr Smith, a UK citizen and keen observer of the US role on the Korean peninsula, past and present, is well positioned to make that point, particularly as it applies to Americans, because we Americans have a woeful tendency to think that history begins only when we be- come aware of and involved in a particular issue. For example, burial mounds on Kangwha Island, containing the bodies of hundreds of Korean soldiers blown up in their mud forts by the US naval incursion into Korea of 1871, the miserable Taft–Katsura Pact of x FOREWORD xi
1905, which opened the way for Japan’s occupation of Korea, and our arbitrary division of Korea, made in haste in 1945, are all matters known to virtually every Korean, but are ‘‘terra incognita’’ to us. For the vast majority of Americans, Korean history ‘‘begins’’ on 25 June 1950, when North Korea invaded the South. The continuing American ‘‘take’’ on Korea is that North Koreans are evil, South Koreans are good (but hard to do business with), and that all South Koreans should be eternally grateful to us for rescuing them by our intervention in the Korean War. For over 30 years I served as a CIA operations officer with an Asian focus. I consider myself well qualified to observe, as I often do, that North Korea is the longest-running failure in the history of American es- pionage. In 1968, I was serving in Japan when the North Koreans seized the USS Pueblo, which had been on an intelligence-gathering mission off the North Korean coast. I was made part of a task force to determine how we should retaliate for what we considered an unprovoked attack. We soon found, to our great frustration, that North Korea was like a turtle with its head and feet pulled into its shell. There were no easy tar- gets to attack, we did not wish to risk starting a second Korean War by hitting a major military installation on the mainland, and so we decided, wisely I believe, to do nothing. The Pueblo’s crew were eventually re- leased, but the ship itself remains moored on the banks of the Taedong river in Pyongyang and is something of a tourist attraction. Until al-Qaeda burst upon the scene, North Korea was the hardest of the hard intelligence targets, and our collective ignorance of the thinking of the North Korean leadership remains profound. When I left govern- ment in 1993, I was able to move and talk more freely as chairman of The Korea Society, and began to cultivate relations with North Korean officials posted in New York. Through talks with those officials and meet- ings with Chinese, Russians, South Koreans and Americans, all of whom had had lengthy contact with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, a pic- ture emerged of a man interested in strengthening the North Korean economy and in establishing better relations with the United States. My own perspective on North Korea as a country was also enhanced by these contacts and by the four visits I have made to Pyongyang, starting in 2002. In the fall of 2003, I attended a ‘‘track two’’ version of the Six-Party Talks, hosted by the Chinese in Qingdao. This meeting gave a clear in- sight into how different each country’s view of North Korea was, depend- ing largely on past historical experiences. The Chinese hosts, wishing to avoid either an implosion or an explosion in North Korea, were clearly in the lead in terms of pushing for success in making the Korean penin- sula nuclear free, closely followed by the South Koreans, who wanted to avoid war at all costs. The Japanese were already becoming fixated upon xii FOREWORD the abduction issue, and as a result were somewhat isolated. The Rus- sians were favorable toward progress being made, largely for economic reasons, but did not take a strong position politically. When asked by the Chinese what the US policy was toward North Korea, the senior American representative, an active duty foreign service officer, said, ‘‘All I can say is that North Korea does not have to do everything before we do anything.’’ Our Chinese host replied, somewhat caustically, ‘‘That sounds more like an attitude than a policy.’’ Finally, in early March 2007, the United States seems to have moved toward the establishment of a more coherent North Korean policy. But North Korea, for its part, has become at least a rudimentary nuclear power. This development has increased North Korean pride and self- confidence on the one hand, while bringing down upon it greatly in- creased pressure from the other members of the Six-Party process, partic- ularly China. The stage has thus been set for a long-term negotiating process. The publication of this book should be helpful to all those seeking to under- standwhyNorthKoreaisthewayitisandtotrytohelpmoveNorth Korea away from its current position of isolation. Dr Smith’s book, with chapters written by a well-qualified array of international experts, can rescue its readers from the ‘‘outside looking in’’ perspective that has doomed previous efforts to deal effectively with North Korea to frustra- tion and failure. Contributors
Bradley O. Babson is a former World taught at Moscow University of Bank official and expert on Asian International Relations (MGIMO). affairs with a focus on the North Korean economy and Northeast Maria Castillo Fernandez is a political Asian economic cooperation. adviser on Korean Peninsula issues He now acts as a consultant for at the European Commission, international organizations, having previously dealt with the foundations and research institutes, former Soviet Union and the and is a member of the National countries of the Confederation of Committee for North Korea. Independent States (in particular Russia and Ukraine) and with Georgy Bulychev is Professor and transitions from a centralized Doctor of Economy at the Russian economy to market economy Academy of Science, and founder principles. She obtained her law and Research Director of the Center degree in Madrid and her Master’s for Contemporary Korean Studies degree in European Law at the (IMEMO) in Moscow. As an Envoy College of Europe, Belgium, and Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary the University of Strasbourg, he has had postings to Pyongyang France. and Seoul. He has authored and co- authored six books (the latest being John D. Ciorciari is a doctoral Political Systems of the Korean candidate at Oxford University, Peninsula States,Moscow,2002) whereheiscompletinga and numerous articles, and has dissertation on contemporary presented many papers on Korean Southeast Asian alignment politics. and East Asian affairs at various He is a former Wai Seng Senior international forums. He also Research Scholar at St Antony’s xiii xiv CONTRIBUTORS
College (Oxford), UK, and Visiting Carter a week later and for the Research Fellow at the Institute of Agreed Framework negotiated by Defence and Strategic Studies in North Korea and the United States Singapore. in October 1994. He is a senior scholar of the Woodrow Wilson Bruce Cumings teaches at the International Center for Scholars in University of Chicago, USA, where Washington DC, USA. he is the Gustavus F. and Ann M. Swift Distinguished Service Suk Lee is the Director of the Professor. He is the author of the Information Centre for Unification two-volume study The Origins of the Studies at the Korea Institute for Korean War (Princeton University National Unification in Seoul, South Press, 1981, 1990), which won the Korea. He received his PhD in John King Fairbank Book Award of Economics from the University of the American Historical Association Warwick, UK. He has worked on (vol. 1) and the Quincy Wright the DPRK economy, especially on Book Award of the International the DPRK food crisis, demographic Studies Association (vol. 2). He also change and economic reform. authored War and Television (Visal- Gavan McCormack is Emeritus Routledge, 1992), Korea’s Place in Professor of the Australian National the Sun: A Modern History (W. W. University and author of many Norton, 1997), Parallax Visions: books and articles, including Target Making Sense of American–East North Korea: Pushing North Korea Asian Relations (Duke University to the Brink of Nuclear Catastrophe Press, 1999; paperback 2002), North (Nation Books, 2004; Japanese Korea: Another Country (New Press, edition from Heibonsha and Korean 2003), and co-authored Inventing edition from Icarus Media) and the Axis of Evil (New Press, 2004). ‘‘Criminal States: Soprano vs. He was elected to the American Baritone’’, Korea Observer,Vol.37, Academy of Arts and Sciences in No. 3, Autumn 2006, pp. 487–511. 1999. A new book, Client State: Japan in the American Embrace,istobe Selig S. Harrison is the author of published by Verso in May 2007. Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Ren Xiao is Professor of Politics and Disengagement (Princeton International Affairs at the Institute University Press, 2003) and four of International Studies, Fudan other books on Asia. He has visited University, Shanghai, China. Until North Korea 10 times since 1972 recently he was Senior Fellow and and met the late Kim Il Sung twice. Director of the Asia Pacific Studies On 9 June 1994, in the second of Department at the Shanghai these meetings, he elicited Kim’s Institute for International Studies acceptance of the concept of a (SIIS). His research concentrates on nuclear freeze agreement with the international relations of the Asia- United States, setting the stage for Pacific, Northeast Asian security, the temporary freeze initiated after and East Asian economic and the visit of former president Jimmy security multilateralism. He received CONTRIBUTORS xv
his PhD in Political Science from Unicef and the United Nations Fudan University in 1992. Development Fund, and she continues as an adviser and Gary Samore is Vice President, consultant on North Korea for Director of Studies and Maurice R. international organizations, Greenberg Chair at the Council on governments, non-governmental Foreign Relations, New York, USA. organizations, business and the A former senior White House international media. She wrote the official at the National Security Unicef Situation Analysis of Council and a long-time State Children and Women in the DPRK Department official, he is an expert (Pyongyang, December 1999). Her on nuclear proliferation and arms recent books include European control, especially in the Middle Union Foreign Policy: What It Is and East and Asia. What It Does (Pluto, 2002) and Hungry for Peace: International Hazel Smith is Professor of Security, Humanitarian Assistance International Relations and and Social Change in North Korea Director of the MA programme in (United States Institute of Peace, International Relations at the 2005). Smith has been interviewed University of Warwick, UK. She frequently by the international received her PhD in International media, including the BBC, KBS, Relations from the London School CNN, CBS’s 60 Minutes, ABC’s of Economics, UK, in 1993 and was Nightline and Fareed Zakaria’s PBS a Fulbright visiting scholar at series ‘‘Foreign Exchange’’. She is Stanford University, USA, in 1994/ the proud owner of a North Korean 1995. While on secondment from driving licence (after taking her theUniversityofWarwick,Smith driving test in Pyongyang in 2001). was a visiting Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow at the United States Adam Ward is the Executive Director Institute of Peace, Washington DC of the Washington DC office of the (2001–2002) and between 2003 and International Institute for Strategic 2004 worked at the United Nations Studies (IISS) and a member of University in Tokyo. She has the Directing Staff of the IISS in worked on the DPRK for nearly two London. He is the editor of the IISS decades, being a regular visitor since monthly journal Strategic Comments, 1990. She worked for nearly two and has also served as the Institute’s years in North Korea for the United Senior Fellow for East Asian Nations World Food Programme, Security. Abbreviations
APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APT ASEAN Plus Three AREP Agriculture Recovery and Environmental Protection ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEM Asia-Europe Meetings CCA Common Country Assessment CIA Central Intelligence Agency CSCAP Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific DMZ Demilitarized Zone (Korea) DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GDP gross domestic product GNI gross national income IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies IMF International Monetary Fund KEDO Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization KINU Korea Institute for National Unification NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO non-governmental organization NPT Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty) NSC National Security Council xvi ABBREVIATIONS xvii
OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe PRC People’s Republic of China ROK Republic of Korea (South Korea) UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme Unicef United Nations Children’s Fund US United States WFP World Food Programme WMD weapons of mass destruction
1
1 Reconstituting Korean security dilemmas
Hazel Smith
The conventional picture of Northeast Asian security is of stark national security threats caused by the alleged menacing behaviour of a highly militarized, nuclear-armed Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea).1 Not only does this picture obscure the pro- found human security crisis facing many North Koreans but it offers a skewed, partial and distorted perspective. The conventional perspective thus contributes to the prevalence and circulation of a fundamentally flawed conventional wisdom about what constitutes the security crises for Northeast Asia and, importantly, shapes the policy solutions adopted to deal with those crises. The conventional approach precludes fruitful policy choices that could help to resolve the multidimensional Korean se- curity crisis that is at the heart of short-, medium- and long-term regional stability in Northeast Asia. This book offers a new analysis based upon an understanding of secu- rity as multidimensional and builds that analysis on a historical contextu- alization of the Korean security crises of the early twenty-first century – summarized in Chapter 2 by Bruce Cumings but also used as a reference point by all the contributors. The message is that ‘‘history matters!’’ The premise of this book, however, is not to underestimate the hard security issues of missiles and nuclear proliferation, which is why an important chapter by Gary Samore and Adam Ward (Chapter 3) outlines and ana- lyses North Korean military capacities. Unlike conventional security analyses, which adopt only a state-centric perspective and do not con- sider the population as an appropriate security referent, this book also
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 2HAZELSMITH recognizes that, for most people in the region, economic security is of paramount importance for their everyday lives. Little understood through the conventional security analyses prism, it is the ever-present food security and economic insecurity for the North Korean popula- tion and the state that significantly shape the government’s domestic and foreign politics. Chapter 4 by Bradley Babson and Chapter 5 by Hazel Smith therefore address economic security and food security, respectively. The book is also based on the assumption that there is more than one important perspective on Northeast Asian security and that these various perspectives need to be understood as both legitimate and grounded in sometimes diverse interests. These interests are explored separately in chapters on United States policy by Selig Harrison (Chapter 6), South Korean policy by Suk Lee (Chapter 7), Chinese policy by Ren Xiao (Chapter 8), Japanese policy by Gavan McCormack (Chapter 9), and Russian policy by Georgy Bulychev (Chapter 10). It is often forgotten that worldwide concern over instability on the Korean peninsula has seen the involvement of players other than near neighbours and the United States. This book therefore further analyses the continuing in- volvement of the European Union (EU) in the Korean crisis in Chapter 11 by Maria Castillo Fernandez and charts the small but significant in- volvement by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Chapter 12 by John Ciorciari.
Conventional security discourses
Security debates these days are often categorizedinmutuallyexclusive terms as concerning either national security or human security.2 National security analysts and policy-makers worry about territorial integrity and the military defence of state borders. They regard ‘‘security’’ as the do- main of sovereign states. The international is inherently conflictual and in the end states must rely on their own resources to defend themselves and protect their citizens. Security theorists as disparate as Hans Morgen- thau, who argued for the concentration of national power such as to de- fend the national interest, and Kenneth Waltz, who argued that a bipolar balance of power provided stability in the international system, had in common their ruling out of the analytical equation the idea that the secu- rity of the individual had much to do with the security of the state and regional and international relations.3 Human security analysts, on the other hand, argue that, for most states, security no longer means only the protection of borders against inva- sion.4 Security must also mean protection against social and economic in- stability caused by disruption from outside territorial borders. Human se- RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 3 curity analysts feel that in this globalizing world of porous borders and easy travel we should be more concerned about transborder threats to in- dividual well-being, not just the threat of military invasion.5 Transborder threats may come, for example, from economic downturns, humanitarian and environmental disasters, or transnational crime. Human security per- spectives normally also imply a sense that one state can no longer – if it ever could – resolve such problems on its own. Asian bird flu, for in- stance, is not a problem just for Thailand or Viet Nam or even just for Asia. Human security analysts prefer therefore to respond to human security threats by way of regional and/or global institutions. These insti- tutions offer multilateral solutions designed, in the main, to be imple- mented through cooperation not coercion. National security and human security analysts have not been very good at incorporating each other’s perspectives such as to offer multisectoral analysis. There is nothing in logic or in practice, however, to prevent a national/human security nexus as the basis for analysis and plenty to rec- ommend it in terms of an increased ability to appreciate the complexity of contemporary security crises. National security concerns in terms of the potential use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or terrorism against civilians in fact constitute a threat to life and a threat to survival, the most basic of human security concerns. By contrast, there are few who would argue that simple territorial stability, if also accompanied by the abrogation of basic political and economic rights, offers any kind of meaningful national security to citizens, to the regime that rules over them or to neighbouring countries, which must deal with legal and illegal migration and all manner of negative and unpredictable cross-border spillover effects. National and human security discourses can also be reconciled through policy choices that push for multinational solutions to global problems. After all, even in the hardest of security cases when military intervention is mooted, most states (including those often conceived of as diehard unilateralists) value multilateral solutions – whether this is through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or through UN and re- gional peace-keeping forces. This is why the United States has sought to achieve multilateral backing for every international intervention it has made since the Second World War and why China has insisted that only multilateral (preferably UN-sanctioned) interventions are legal.
The prevalence and influence of the conventional security discourse
The dominant international security debate about Northeast Asia focuses on North Korea as the source of most of the region’s troubles.6 The dis- 4HAZELSMITH course is on WMD, including ballistic missiles and nuclear armaments, and on military threats by North Korea against its neighbours. It is com- monly believed that there remains the ever-present threat of war caused by an irrational state and government in the DPRK. If human security concerns are mentioned in the context of Northeast Asia, they are invari- ably discussed in regard only to North Korea’s human rights violations and as evidence of a mad or bad government with which it is impossible to engage in dialogue.7 Humanitarian concerns are discussed in the con- text of the food crisis in North Korea and the consequent inability of the government to feed its people.8 Transnational crime and trafficking in women also appear on the agenda of the region’s media through the prism of alleged North Korean misdemeanours. The conventional security discourse on and in Northeast Asia views North Korea as the source of regional security dilemmas that are defined and understood via military parameters. Seen in this way, human insecu- rity is a direct consequence of the militarization of the DPRK and its gov- ernment’s political intransigence and antiquated economic policies. The implication is that, once the DPRK military problem is resolved such that the DPRK no longer poses a security threat to the region, then human security problems for North Koreans and neighbouring populations will automatically be solved. Human security threats are not, within this con- ventional security picture, understood as a common problem for all of Northeast Asia – transcending borders and requiring common and coop- erative solutions. Neither does the conventional security discourse assign blame to other actors that have been active in relations with the DPRK; thus, it is unusual to see policy prescriptions recommending changes in foreign policy behaviour among the DPRK’s international interlocutors as well as in the DPRK. Conventional security talk is pessimistic about the possibilities of achieving multilateral or cooperative solutions to the perceived security dilemma of Northeast Asia. Northeast Asia has been known for its com- parative absence of regional organizations, although in the decade of the 2000s an exponential growth took place in the number of regional institu- tions that East Asian states joined and participated in.9 Recent years have seen some promotion of the idea of a Northeast Asian community, but there remains no appetite for an EU-type integration venture in East Asia – even in the distant future. The conventional wisdom is that it is difficult to identify common interests and culture such as to place re- gional integration on the agenda for any Northeast Asian state. Nor is Northeast Asia home to even a loose association of states analogous to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which operates by putting aside ideological and economic disparity in order to formulate common approaches to shared concerns.10 RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 5
The dominant or conventional security discourse is influential globally, informing the foreign policies of major states – including the United States, Japan and all Western states from EU members to Australia and New Zealand. Its analysis permeates ASEAN members even if these states do not share the policy options of isolation and containment that have sometimes flowed from the dominant analysis. ASEAN prefers its own distinct method of conflict resolution and negotiation to achieve e´lite consensus and cooperative solutions. The dominant approach is by no means universal, however, though it tends to obscure the very varied re- gional perspectives on Northeast Asian security. The dominant security discourse on Korean security dilemmas also ob- scures complex underlying intra-regional security dynamics. In China, for instance, the major Northeast Asian security debate is not about North Korea but about the perceived threat to the region from Taiwanese inde- pendence claims. Other concerns highlighted throughout the region, al- though barely mentioned in the Western media, are the extant territorial conflicts, regional rivalries and ideological differences between Northeast Asia’s major states – China, Russia, Japan and both Koreas. The bitter- ness engendered by the Japanese colonial period of the first half of the twentieth century is still prevalent and a significant factor in domestic politics in China and both Koreas. Ideological differences between com- munist China and capitalist Japan still play a part in fear, suspicion and mistrust between the two peoples. Nationalist sentiments also motivate Chinese, Japanese, Korean and to a lesser extent Russian irredentist claims in the region. The conventional approach tells part of the truth but it does so in such a way as to obscure other important truths for those concerned with Northeast Asia. Nuclear proliferation by the DPRK is a clear and present danger to North Korea’s own people and to the region because of the risk of war and nuclear accidents; conversely, unpacking and resolving DPRK human security concerns may hold the key to dialogue on military issues. The two sides of the security coin are indivisible. Conventional approaches reduce knowledge about complex security problems to a ‘‘one cause fits all’’ diagnosis that demonizes the DPRK and makes it almost impossible to conceive of negotiating, let alone reaching any agreement, with such an irrational state. Conventional knowledge about the DPRK also presents worst-case scenarios as factual accounts. Worst-case scenarios are of course appropriate for military planners because it is their duty to plan for such scenarios. It is when worst-case scenarios are used by politicians as a substitute for factual analysis that we risk repeating the mistakes that led to the Iraq war in 2003, but this time in Korea.11 There was a massive failure of intelligence in Iraq, partly because of the inability to distinguish between ideology 6HAZELSMITH and analysis, between aspiration and fact. The lessons of the Iraq war and the subsequent intelligence investigations and reorganization in the United States show among other things that dominant discourses that are not founded on sober analysis and well-substantiated claims do any- thing but provide wise guidance for policy-makers. Instead they exagger- ate and skew data in such a way as to aggravate – rather than merely analyse – security tensions.
Countering the conventional assumptions
A reconstitution of the conventional wisdom should be the aim – to force a belated recognition that the current security policies of major states are informed in important ways by a dangerously deficient understanding of North Korean realities and are therefore built on deeply problematic foundations. Buried within the dominant discourse are two powerful as- sumptions: first, the DPRK is commonly portrayed as a militarily power- ful country, as was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq; second, the DPRK remains on the United States’ list of countries with links with terrorism. The first of these assumptions is more prominent than the second, although some right-wing Japanese organizations proclaim that the DPRK is a terrorist state because of its historical activities.
The DPRK is not a militarily strong power
It may seem obvious, even logical, that the DPRK, which has suffered well-recorded economic devastation for over 15 years and as a conse- quence almost total industrial infrastructural collapse, would have little in the way of functioning military hardware or a very fearsome army. Nevertheless, the conventional wisdom is that the DPRK has a formid- able arsenal, ready to be unleashed on all comers, from Tokyo to Alaska with South Korea in between. Table 1.1 starkly reveals the actual capac- ity of the DPRK military. The DPRK annual defence budget is dwarfed by that of its neighbours, at US$2 billion in 2005 compared with Japan’s US$45 billion and South Korea’s US$21 billion. In addition, per capita spending on its huge armed forces has to cover food, clothing, housing and health supplies, as well as every aspect of what would normally come from a civilian infrastructure in a developed state – telecommunications, transport, food supplies and agricultural production, and industrial production for everything from weapons to clothing. This is because the social infrastructure barely func- tions and the civilian industrial fabric has all but disappeared since the economic meltdown of the 1990s. Additionally the data in Table 1.1 as- RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 7
Table 1.1 Defence budgets of the parties to the Six-Party Talks, 2004 and 2005
Population Defence budget Defence budget (million) (US$ billion), 2004 (US$ billion), 2005
DPRK 23 1.8 2.0 Russia 143 15.0 19.0 South Korea 49 16.3 20.7 China 1,306 25.0 29.5 Japan 127 45.1 44.7 United States 295 490.0 505.0
Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2006, London: Routledge/IISS, 2006. sume a formal exchange rate that in practice has been replaced by mar- ket rates since at least the mid-1990s. In 2006 the market rate for the won was conservatively 2,000 per US dollar – compared with the official ex- change rate of 150. Taking this conservative market rate as the actual rate, DPRK per capita expenditure on its soldiers in 2006 was actually around US$1 a year. This expenditure is not enough to make for a pow- erful army. The incapacity of the North Korean army is an important reason why the DPRK tried to build a nuclear weapon. Its nuclear test in October 2006 demonstrated that it could use nuclear weapons as a deterrent and did not have to rely on decrepit military infrastructure and its poorly paid and malnourished armed forces. Relatively cheap investment in nuclear fission means that the DPRK would not have to find billions of dollars to support its hungry and economically unproductive army. No serious military analyst anywhere in the world views the DPRK as an offensive military threat to its neighbours or to any other state. This is partly because of the weak military capacity of the DPRK and partly because of the lack of a military strategy that argues for either offensive attack against its neighbours or pre-emptive defence. However, the pos- session of one or more nuclear weapons does make the DPRK a more dangerous place and exacerbates regional security dilemmas – there is no democratic control over the nuclear programme; it is probably being managed in a highly inefficient and risky manner; and there are many in- centives for freelance initiatives in terms of the potential for smuggling fissile material.
The DPRK has no links with global terrorism
Despite the DPRK’s involvement historically in terrorist attacks against South Koreans (for example, the Rangoon bombing of South Korean 8HAZELSMITH politicians in 1983, its alleged blowing up of a South Korean airliner in 1987 and its abduction of 13 Japanese civilians in the 1970s and early 1980s), it does not have any recent or current connections with global ter- rorism. Its dramatically improved relationship with South Korea since the June 2000 summit in Pyongyang (when North and South Korean leaders met for the first time since the end of the Korean war in 1953) and its dependence on the South for economic and humanitarian assistance are also likely to preclude such activities against the South. Similarly Kim Jong Il, the DPRK’s head of state, has made an intensive effort to improve relations with Japan – resulting in two visits by former prime minister Koizumi to the DPRK, and agreements to return Japanese hi- jackers residing in Pyongyang since the 1970s along with their families, and to return Japanese abductees and their families. The DPRK’s non- involvement in terrorist activities was acknowledged by the Clinton ad- ministration, which was in the process of taking the DPRK off its list of states that sponsor terrorism before it went out of office in 2001.
The real military threat from and to the DPRK
The military threat from the DPRK is that, if it were attacked (even in the form of a ‘‘surgical strike’’ or a ‘‘limited’’ bombing campaign against its nuclear or other facilities), it would retaliate militarily. Weak military capacity would not prevent retaliatory military action by the DPRK against South Korea, where some 30,000 US troops are stationed. Seoul, with its population of around 25 million, is only about 50 km from the Korean border. It is the DPRK’s mobilization capacity – not its military hardware – that could potentially cause devastation if war broke out on the penin- sula. A determined march south by a mobilized North Korean popula- tion, even in the face of undoubtedly punishing bombing from US and South Korean forces, would result in human and economic catastrophe for South Korea. As the Rwandan genocide demonstrated, it is not nec- essary to possess sophisticated weapons to kill half a million people in two or three weeks. On the other hand, even the DPRK government does not know if a mobilized people and army would continue to fight if war broke out. The population of North Korea is for the most part hungry and poor, and it blames the party and government officials, not the United States, for the country’s economic crisis. Nor does it view South Korea as the en- emy. Large sections of the population now know that, contrary to what they were told by their education system and their media, South Korea is a rich country and life chances are better in the South than in the RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 9
North. The North Korean population might decide that the nationalist Korean project that is the essential foundation of the ‘‘Juche’’ philosophy of self-reliance could easily be satisfied by integration with South Korea. War is not therefore a policy option for the DPRK government. Rather than mobilizing the people, North Korean policy-makers know that military conflict might provide the catalyst to fatally undermine the current DPRK regime.
Hidden threats to regional security
Proliferation of nuclear technology does cause a threat to regional secu- rity and will need to be treated as a priority for international negotiators. Other, less recognized causes of tension in the region arise from serious but often ignored threats to regional security from the economic devasta- tion faced by the North Korean population since the early 1990s and the actual and potential spillover into neighbouring countries of the negative and harmful aspects of the rapid growth of unregulated primitive capital- ism in the DPRK since the 1990s. Human (in)security analysis can illumi- nate these hidden factors and by doing so challenge conventional analysis of what should constitute policy-makers’ only concerns in the DPRK. National security issues also look different from the perspective of non- dominant discourses. From the perspective of Russia, China and South Korea, for instance, as subsequent chapters in this book indicate, one important fear is the risk to the region from any unilateral US action in Korea.
Markets and poverty
The economic crisis that hit the DPRK with the loss of concessionary markets, cheap oil and technology transfers from the ex-communist states with the end of the Cold War is well known.12 What is less reported is the consequent marketization – without political liberalization – that has taken place in the DPRK since the early 1990s.13 After the food crisis of the 1990s, when nearly 1 million people died of starvation and malnutri- tion, the state was no longer able to deliver food or any other economic and social goods.14 The remaining 21 million people survived through re- course to the primitive market that developed to fill the economic alloca- tion and distribution vacuum. The DPRK is now a nation of small and large business people. The state no longer provides enough for any member of the population to survive without individual entrepreneurship. Yet, at the same time, the state has not moved to create a regulatory framework to shape the work- 10 HAZEL SMITH
Figure 1.1 DPRK population and per capita national income, 1998–2004. Source: Bank of Korea, reproduced in Korea Economic Institute, North Korea’s Economy: Economic Data, Washington, DC, June 2006. ings of this mass of private economic activity. Thus there is little distinc- tion between what is legal and what is illegal, what is legitimate and what is illegitimate. Corruption in this climate is simply a judgement made in terms of personal ethics. Everything is permissible because the legal sys- tem does not recognize – except in the very broad and basic legislation provided by the July 2002 ‘‘economic reform’’ – that the foundations of the economic structure have been transformed. Much of the population lives in poverty, which is visible nationwide, in Pyongyang and the provinces; in urban and rural areas; in the mountains and in the farming localities. Figure 1.1 shows that annual per capita in- come has been at poverty levels for a least a decade. In qualitative terms this means that a child growing to adulthood in today’s DPRK will have had a lifetime’s experience of food shortages; intermittent hunger; inade- quate medical and health care; little access to effective medicines when sick; irregular electricity and water supplies; bitter cold winters without adequate clothing or heating; half-time education because the (mainly women) teachers take frequent absences from work to look for food for their families; inadequate educational materials; and little hope from the experiences of their families and friends that much will change when they enter the workforce. The demographic statistics listed in Table 1.2 give another crude indi- cator of growing endemic poverty in the DPRK. According to these Uni- cef figures, which are likely to be underestimated given that they must be agreed with the government before they can be published, the crude death rate – the annual number of deaths per 1,000 people – increased from 8 in 1990 to 11 in 2004. During the same period the crude birth rate – the annual number of live births per 1,000 of the population – RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 11
Table 1.2 DPRK demographic indicators
Population annual growth rate, 1970–1990 (%) 1.6 Population annual growth rate, 1990–2004 (%) 0.9 Crude death rate, 1970 9 Crude death rate, 1990 8 Crude death rate, 2004 11 Crude birth rate, 1970 33 Crude birth rate, 1990 21 Crude birth rate, 2004 16 Life expectancy, 1970 61 Life expectancy, 1990 65 Life expectancy, 2004 63 Total fertility rate, 2004 (%) 2 % of population urbanized, 2004 61 Average annual growth rate of urban population, 1970–1990 (%) 1.9 Average annual growth rate of urban population, 1990–2004 (%) 1.3 Source: Unicef website, hhttp://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/korea_statistics. htmli (accessed 8 February 2007). decreased from 21 to 16. The birth rate did not decrease for the same reasons as in rich countries, when women can choose more easily whether or not to have children. It decreased because women’s health had, nationwide, deteriorated to the extent that they could not bring a pregnancy successfully to term and also because women were choosing not to have children because they did not have the means to care for them.
Inequality
Soaring inflation, high unemployment and underemployment, and con- tinuing food and goods shortages mean that those social groups and indi- viduals without access to the benefits of the market remain food insecure whereas those who can take advantage of the new economy are visibly better off. The nouveau riche are not super-rich as for instance are the nouveau riche of the transition countries of Eastern Europe. They do not have access to large amounts of money but they can afford good food, maybe a second-hand Japanese car, a bicycle, a DVD player, med- icines and to visit restaurants. Their significance is that they continue to live in the same apartment blocks as their poorer neighbours and they are ostentatiously better off than most. This visible inequality based on differential access to consumption goods is something new. The old upper class of the Kim family and their cohorts never engaged in conspicuous consumption and preferred to guard their wealth and privacy behind the closed walls of secluded villas. 12 HAZEL SMITH
Figure 1.2 The prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age) for children under 72 months in DPRK Nutrition Assessments of 2002 and 2004. Source: Figures derived from DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics and Institute of Child Nutrition, ‘‘DPRK 2004 Nutrition Assessment: Report of Survey Results’’, Pyongyang, mimeo, 2005.
In the old system, senior and mid-level officials might be better off eco- nomically than their neighbours and have higher status but they did not in the main have access to significantly different goods because the DPRK did not produce quality consumption goods and it was extremely difficult and politically dangerous to possess goods from abroad. Inequalities are also visible in food accessibility across geographical re- gions. Figure 1.2 gives data from the 2004 nutrition survey on stunting among children under 6 years of age. The figure shows that, although children’s nutritional status improved in every province between 2002 and 2004, children from Pyongyang were substantially better off than children from the mountainous provinces of the north-east, home to the country’s densely populated and economically devastated industrial and mining towns. A contrast can be made between parents’ ambitions for their children before and since the economic crisis of the 1990s. In twentieth-century DPRK, parents wanted their children to join the army or to gain a good party job because this was the way to secure income, assets and privi- leges. In today’s DPRK, parents want their children to avoid the military, RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 13 the security forces and the party. This is because most of the hundreds of thousands of middle- and lower-ranked bureaucrats struggle to feed their families and live in poverty. Instead, parents want to save a little capital to start small family businesses – and aspire to emulate the successes of the traders who have made money from the new market economy and whose nouveau riche lifestyle is ostentatiously visible throughout the country.
Cross-border illegality and petty criminality
One consequence of the DPRK’s human security crisis is, as one North Korean residing in China told me in March 2005, that ‘‘the rich are get- ting richer and the poor are getting poorer’’. The social safety-net cher- ished under the Kim Il Sung development project has all but dis- appeared. Inequality and absolute poverty serve to keep the threat of starvation acute for probably the majority of North Koreans and propel various kinds of cross-border illegality: economic migration to China, trafficking in women, armed robbery and night-time theft, and smuggling. The 30,000 or so North Koreans residing illegally in China are gener- ally pushed into illegal migration by economic motives. Their actions are criminalized by both China and the DPRK, however, and they risk severe punishment on their return to the DPRK if they are considered to have been colluding with South Koreans and/or Christians in Yanbian, the border region that is home to China’s Korean minority.15 Both groups are viewed by the North Korean authorities not as humanitarians, but as provocateurs whose major aim is to overturn the North Korean regime. Economic entrepreneurs make money out of trafficking girls and women as brides and prostitutes in north-east China – where single women are in short supply and where Chinese women are increasingly reluctant to enter into the hardships involved in rural living. So far, mainly small- scale cross-border operators have been responsible for the trafficking. Family, friends and local connections arrange the traffic – sometimes with the connivance of the women. One North Korean woman who had introduced another to a Chinese man told me in Yanbian in 2005 that ‘‘of course this is an insult to the woman and to the country [North Korea]. But it is better than living without food to eat.’’ Another consequence of the country’s continuing inability to feed its people and provide meaningful economic opportunities for its population is the general rise in crime in the country and especially in the border area with China and Russia, which is particularly important for regional stability. Crime ranges from the nightly forays into China of North Kore- ans living near the border to steal food and supplies to the more sinister development of armed robberies on the Chinese side of the border. 14 HAZEL SMITH
North Korean soldiers, for instance, robbed a bank in the border town of Tumen in north-east China in 2004 and were caught by the Chinese po- lice after they used the proceeds to buy and consume alcohol in China in- stead of immediately returning to the DPRK. Violent crime and property theft are carried out by small-scale operators and have not yet been linked to organized crime. However, their prevalence is causing concern among local Chinese authorities, because they have caused a sharp in- crease in personal insecurity for local Chinese and Chinese Koreans. Finally, the DPRK’s human security crisis and lack of internal regula- tion have generated widespread smuggling across the Chinese–North Ko- rean border. Lumber is sold into China along with herbs and mushrooms. Smuggling is almost institutionalized, withNorthKoreanlocal authorities and businesses as well as individuals routinely carrying out cross-border trade in ways that aim to avoid Chinese and North Korean taxation.
People-smuggling
Transnational organized criminal gangs have taken advantage of the DPRK’s human security crisis in that it is Chinese ‘‘snakeheads’’ or people smugglers who transport North Koreans from China to Seoul. This is a market-generated activity where the snakeheads, who have the resources and contacts to make transnational operations between two and more countries possible, exchange their services with North Koreans who agree to pay a large part of the resettlement allowance they receive from the South Korean government once they are successfully located in Seoul. Incidentally there are clear gender dimensions to this transna- tional criminal market. The snakeheads prefer female clients because they consider that women are more likely to pay back the debt accrued. This may be the reason disproportionate numbers of women are turning up in Seoul among the latest waves of North Koreans who have actually reached South Korea.
The regional effects of technical meltdown
The lack of internal regulatory capacity in the DPRK is not confined to economic legislation. The DPRK has no systematic technical arrange- ments for what is known in engineering parlance as ‘‘quality assurance’’ in any of its industrial or energy sectors. The major train crash in the DPRK in February 2004 that killed dozens of schoolchildren was owing as much to the DPRK’s inability to implement regularized safety proce- dures as to individual human error. This lack of capacity permeates all sectors. Its prevalence means that a nuclear accident is more likely than RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 15 not given the recent resuscitation of the DPRK’s nuclear reactors.16 The effects of a nuclear accident could not be confined to the DPRK: South Korea, China, Russia and Japan would suffer the consequences. A nu- clear accident is a much more likely cause of a regional nuclear crisis than the launch of a nuclear weapon.
The fear of US unilateralism
A major unspoken worry of all governments in the region is the reluc- tance of the United States to commit itself to achieving a diplomatic solu- tion to the regional security crisis and the consequent fear of unilateral US military intervention in the DPRK. The governments of the region were not encouraged by the US decision at the Six-Party Talks to read prepared statements and its failure to use the opportunities for informal discussions with the North Koreans on the margins of the formal meet- ings. In other words, they were dismayed by the unwillingness of the United States to use the normal mechanisms of diplomacy whose very aim is to achieve agreement by way of compromise and trade-offs be- tween conflicting parties that by definition do not share interests and values. All the region’s states fear military intervention by the United States on the peninsula. South Korea fears the annihilation of Seoul and the crippling of its economy, not to speak of the killing, maiming and devas- tation that would be suffered by millions of Koreans. China does not want a war on its borders – especially when it is making such profound efforts to develop its north-eastern provinces that border Korea. Neither China nor Russia relishes the prospect of being drawn into a hot conflict with the United States. Public opinion in both countries would be out- raged if the United States even attempted a limited ‘‘surgical strike’’ against the North Koreans. Both countries have friendship treaties with the DPRK, and China is still formally committed to some form of active support of the DPRK in times of war. Even Japan, whose alliance with the United States forms the foundation of its foreign policy and its exis- tence as a democratic state, has given strong signals to the United States that it prefers conflict resolution through negotiation, not confrontation.
The regional response
The DPRK’s neighbours have been so concerned about the high-profile nuclear crisis and the consequent fear of US unilateralism that they have underestimated human insecurities as a cause of potential threats to re- 16 HAZEL SMITH gional stability. Only China and to some extent South Korea have taken these new security threats seriously. China’s approach has been to punish those caught engaged in criminality, as well as to step up its internal se- curity surveillance procedures in order to try to identify North Koreans residing in China without papers. Once identified, they are sent back to the DPRK. Publicly, China has refused to cooperate with the United Na- tions High Commissioner for Refugees in setting up screening mecha- nisms to distinguish refugees from economic migrants. Instead it has in- sisted on a bilateral approach with North Korea and has reiterated its official position that all North Koreans in China are economic migrants. Concurrent with the official harsh approach, China has also taken a more flexible approach to North Koreans seeking support in China. De- spite the fact that it has deployed some 100,000 troops to the border area, it has not militarized the still porous and open 1,000 mile border. There are no fences, barbed wire, military emplacements or demarcation lines, except for the river that separates the two countries. This means that in practice China tolerates North Koreans coming over the border at night to obtain food from relatives or other sources. It has facilitated the trans- port to Seoul of North Koreans who invaded foreign embassies and consulates in Beijing and Shenyang. It has also discussed with non- governmental organizations how to regularize the status of the estimated 5,000 children born to mixed marriages between non-authorized resident North Koreans and Chinese citizens. On the whole, however, regional actors have not taken seriously the potential threats to regional stability from the continuing structural impe- tustogrowthincross-borderillegality and criminality arising from the DPRK human security crisis. Regional actors have not seriously ad- dressed the potential consolidation of transnational criminal networks in the border areas of China, Russia and the DPRK. These subjects remain off the security agenda – partly because of the very fact that they contra- dict the established discourse, which is that North Korea is the cause of all the region’s troubles. The ‘‘common knowledge’’ security paradigms that argue for the fear- some nature of the North Korean military are so strong and strengthened by every kind of cultural and ideological reinforcement that it becomes almost impossible to ‘‘see’’ data that do not fit pre-existing perceptions. And, in many cases, keeping some subjects off the public agenda serves domestic political interests. For example, it is far easier to persuade the Japanese public to support changes in Japan’s constitution to allow a more active role for Japanese military forces if the enemy can be shown as demented, irrational, nearby and of imminent threat. It would be much harder to justify such changes as part of conformity to the reformu- RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 17 lated Japanese–US strategic alliance, which requires more proactive par- ticipation from Japan in regional and global military activities.
Regional cooperation as policy solution
The conventional approach to regional security analysis argues that there is little commonality between the five major Northeast Asian states such as to build a regional security coordination mechanism. In fact, there are a number of ways in which Northeast Asians are economically and polit- ically more institutionally bound together than ever before. Rapid Chi- nese economic growth provides the meshing factor – with Japan, South Korea and Russia looking for and obtaining trade, markets and invest- ment relationships with China so as to boost their own economic for- tunes. The ‘‘ASEAN plus 3’’ formula has brought Japan, China and South Korea together in a multilateral forum and all participants in the Six-Party Talks are members of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).17 Five of the six – not including North Korea – are members of the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum. In addition, the talks themselves provide potential avenues of cooperation between the six parties and the possibility of building more institutionalized cooperation mechanisms in the future. By misconceiving nascent regional cooperation, the conventional wis- dom rules out consideration of what could be innovative but pragmatic solutions to the region’s security crisis. Multisectoral security problems require fine-tuned analysis. Such solutions also provide the possibility for trade-offs and bargaining across sectors and countries, such as to pro- vide multilateral solutions to the multifaceted security dilemma of North- east Asia today. The decision of the Six-Party Talks to convene working groups, for instance, could have provided an acceptable forum to all par- ties to discuss the controversial issues of not just nuclear weapons and missiles, but human rights and humanitarian issues as well as economic and development matters. It would not be very difficult to envisage a process akin to the Helsinki ‘‘basket’’ diplomacy where security, economics and human rights issues were negotiated by the Cold War adversaries but progress in each was not directly linked to simultaneous progress in all. Thus incremental ne- gotiations provided confidence-building exercises in themselves as well as substantive positive outcomes at the end of the process. An analogous approach is feasible for Northeast Asia by way of an extension of the Six-Party Talks. It will, however, require a rejection of unicausal analysis and the conventional wisdom, and an adoption of security analysis that 18 HAZEL SMITH accepts the multidimensional nature of security threats in Northeast Asia and the subsequent possibilities of multilateral and multisectoral solu- tions.
Old and new security analyses
Facing the myths and realities of Northeast Asia’s security dilemmas would bring advantages to policy-makers. The insecurity facing the North Korean government and its consequent decision to advertise possession of a nuclear deterrent (whether based on a fully functioning or partially functioning weapons capacity is almost irrelevant in this context) provide part of the security puzzle of Northeast Asia. E´ lite discourse, however, needs to recognize that focusing on the alleged military threat from North Korea to the exclusion of all other factors postpones the resolution of real security threats to regional stability and downplays other poten- tially dangerous conflicts between states and peoples in the region. His- torical antagonisms are not disappearing and, because they have little purchase in inter-e´lite political discussion and are not the focus of many official attempts at conflict resolution, they are in many ways worsening. Old security analysis masks the serious but multidimensional nature of North Korea’s national security problems. Real security threats derive not from the DPRK as a military threat but from generalized human in- securities generated by the breakdown of economic structures within the DPRK and the resulting transborder spillover effects. Innovative security analysis should identify these new features of the regional socio- economic and political landscape in order to help policy-makers build common, more cooperative futures.
The contribution of this book
The contributors to this book identify the multifaceted and interrelated nature of the Korean security crises. The paradox is that progress on im- proving military security cannot be made without progress in economic and food security for the DPRK. This is because, as the contributors show, the top priority for the DPRK government is regime survival and that survival cannot be guaranteed by military means. Unless and until the DPRK government secures the means to rebuild its economy, and at thesametimeconsidersitselfsecurefrom external attack, it will continue to follow an isolationist policy that cannot deliver human security for its people or regional security for its neighbours. The task for policy-makers is to unravel this conundrum. The contributors show how that can be RECONSTITUTING KOREAN SECURITY DILEMMAS 19 done, offering well-informed analysis from established experts in the field and suggestions of how to break the policy impasse towards Korea. The contributors were asked to take old and new security threats seri- ously but also to consider the policy ramifications of a reconstituted Ko- rean security analysis so as to offer guidance for global policy-makers. Given the unresolved security crises on the peninsula and the day to day misery faced by many North Koreans, that task is manifestly still neces- sary.
Notes
1. This book is based on a 10-year research project that has resulted in a series of scholarly publications as well as a series of policy analyses for international organizations and specialist journals such as Jane’s Intelligence Monthly. Those readers interested in fol- lowing up sources and literature are recommended to peruse the extensive bibliography and detailed footnotes in Hazel Smith, Hungry for Peace: International Security. Hu- manitarian Assistance and Social Change in North Korea, Washington DC: USIP Press, 2005. Those interested in particular aspects of the issues mentioned here may wish to follow up detailed argumentation in my various publications listed in the bibliography to this book. Some of the specific argumentation for this chapter was first developed in Hazel Smith, ‘‘North East Asia’s Regional Security Secrets: Re-envisaging the Korean Crisis’’, Disarmament Forum, No. 2, Geneva: United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, 2005, pp. 45–54; translated into French as ‘‘Les Secrets de la se´curite´ re´gion- ale en Asie du Nord-Est’’, Forum du de´sarmement, No. 2, Geneva: United Nations In- stitute for Disarmament Research, 2005, pp. 47–56. 2. The focus of this chapter is on how the shaping of the security debate has been detri- mental to policy analysis and policy choices on Korean security. Readers who wish to delve further into the theoretical alternatives shaping conventional security approaches should consult the useful Harald Mu¨ ller, ‘‘Security Cooperation’’, in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse and Beth A. Simmons (eds), Handbook of International Relations, Lon- don: Sage, 2005. 3. Hans Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace,6thedn, New York: Alfred Knopf, 1985; Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics,New York: Random House, 1979. 4. For an overview of human security analysis, see Edward Newman, ‘‘Human Security and Constructivism’’, International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 2, No. 3, August 2001. 5. See United Nations Development Programme, ‘‘An Agenda for the Social Summit’’, in Human Development Report 1994, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994; available at hhttp://hdr.undp.org/reports/global/1994/en/i (accessed 29 January 2007). 6. Books shaped by this perspective include serious scholarly work, policy analysis and the polemical. Examples of the first include Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies, New York: Columbia University Press, 2003; Michael J. Mazarr, North Korea and the Bomb, London: Macmillan, 1995; Marcus Noland, Avoiding the Apocalypse – The Future of the Two Koreas, Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, June 2000; and United Nations, ‘‘DPR Korea Common Country Assessment 2002’’, Pyongyang, mimeo, February 2003. Examples of the second include Michael O’Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki, Crisis on the Korean Pen- insula: How to Deal with a Nuclear North Korea, New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003; and 20 HAZEL SMITH
Scott Snyder, Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior, Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1999. Examples of the last include Jasper Becker, Rogue Regime: Kim Jong Il and the Looming Threat of North Korea, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005, and the rather hysterical Gordon Chang, Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World, London: Random House, 2006. 7. For discussion, see Hazel Smith, ‘‘Bad, Mad, Sad or Rational Actor: Why the ‘Securiti- zation’ Paradigm Makes for Poor Policy Analysis of North Korea’’, International Af- fairs, Vol. 76, No. 1, January 2000, pp. 111–132. 8. For a critique, see Chapter 1 of Hazel Smith, Hungry for Peace. 9. For discussion see Kyu-ryoon Kim, Regional Cooperation in Asia: Suggestions for Fu- ture Development, KINU report PA 06-12, Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unifica- tion, 2006, available at hhttp://www.kinu.or.kr/eng/i. 10. See Chapter 12. 11. Hazel Smith, ‘‘Intelligence Matters: Improving Intelligence on North Korea’’, Jane’s In- telligence Review, April 2004, pp. 48–51. 12. Humanitarian and Development Working Group, ‘‘DPR Korean Economic Reforms’’, 6 August 2002, available at hhttp://www.cankor.ca/issues/95.htm#1i (accessed 29 Janu- ary 2007). 13. Hazel Smith, ‘‘La Core´eduNordversl’e´conomie de marche´: Faux et vrais dilemmas’’, Critique Internationale (Paris), April 2002, pp. 6–14. 14. The most useful and thorough analysis of the famine of the 1990s and the chronic food shortages that have beset the DPRK throughout its history is Suk Lee, ‘‘Food Shortages and Economic Institutions in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, unpublished PhD thesis, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK, January 2003. 15. Hazel Smith, ‘‘Asymmetric Nuisance Value: The Border in China–Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Relations’’, in Timothy Hildebrandt (ed.), Uneasy Allies: Fifty Years of China–North Korea Relations, Washington DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Pro- gram Special Report, September 2003, pp. 18–25; Hazel Smith, ‘‘Brownback’s Bill Will Not Help North Koreans’’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, February 2004, pp. 42–45; Hazel Smith, ‘‘North Koreans in China: Defining the Problems and Offering Some Solutions’’, in Tsuneo Akaha and Anna Vassilieva (eds), Crossing National Borders: Human Migra- tion Issues in Northeast Asia, Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2005, pp. 165– 190; Hazel Smith, ‘‘North Korean Migrants Pose Long-Term Challenge for China’’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, June 2005, pp. 32–35. 16. For detail, see Hazel Smith, ‘‘North Korean Nuclear Plant Poses Threat of Meltdown in North Korea’’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, October 2005, pp. 24–27. 17. See Chapter 12 for detail. 21
2 Creating Korean insecurity: The US role
Bruce Cumings
Reconstituting Korean security involves rethinking the fundamentals of the US position in Korea going back to the end of the Second World War, and that rethinking in turn requires a comprehension of what those fundamentals are – but, for most purposes and for many reputable ex- perts, they are often poorly understood. Yet these fundamentals not only explain much about contemporary issues on the peninsula, such as the North Korean nuclear programme, but provide a framework, a set of limits, within which leaders of both Koreas and every US administra- tion must work, however much they may dislike them. I shall draw on post-war history to make 10 basic points about the confrontation in Korea. I shall then examine the one attempt since the Korean war to completely rethink Korean security, which happened in the late 1990s, and discuss the extraordinary dangers to Korea presented by the pre- emptive doctrines of George W. Bush. I conclude with some reflections on how an informed and sustained diplomacy might still provide solu- tions and benefits for international and human security in Korea.
USandKoreansecurityinthelightofhistory
The history of US–Korean relations is really the most important thing we need to know in figuring out the United States’ difficulties with the Dem- ocratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea), North– South relations (or the lack of them), and how the United States might
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 22 BRUCE CUMINGS contribute to Korean reconciliation and reunification and to solving is- sues of human security.1 North Korean leaders are close students of this history, because they have to be; indeed, their behaviour since the end of the Cold War presents a textbook case of how an enemy who knows a particular history in its bones would act and react. A corollary is that the North Koreans know little about US policy and US politics, seeing what they see only on the distant receiving end. Likewise, most US leaders have next to no knowledge of North Korea, but, much more damaging, they usually have had little understanding of the US role in Korea going back to the end of the Second World War and the profound responsibility that the United States bears for Korea’s division, the coming of the Korean war, the fail- ure since 1953 to end that war, the nuclear confrontation, and the kind of country that we witness across the Demilitarized Zone. So let me survey in 10 brief points what I take to be the most important historical lessons of US involvement with Korea since 1945 (with most of these lessons coming from the declassified record of US diplomacy):2 (1) The United States bears the major responsibility for the division of Korea at the 38th parallel in 1945, because it took this decision uni- laterally in mid-August 1945 without consulting any of its wartime allies (and of course no Koreans), and then proceeded to set up a full military occupation – something that the State Department had been planning for since 1943. The Soviet Union accepted this divi- sion in 1945 and fashioned a communist regime in the North. How- ever, it pulled its troops out in December 1948 and never had the long-term interest in North Korea that it had in various satellite re- gimes in Eastern Europe. (2) The United States had a much greater stake in Korea than did the Soviet Union, because it saw South Korea as the front-line of Japa- nese defence, and because the government of the Republic of Korea (ROK) that emerged in 1948 after three years of US military gov- ernment was more a US creation than any post-war government in East or Southeast Asia. The United States created this longstanding stake in the security of the ROK as a pro-US state in the famous ‘‘fifteen weeks’’ in 1947, when the Cold War containment doctrine and the Marshall Plan came to fruition. US President Harry Truman and Under-Secretary of State Dean Acheson saw the ROK in the same light as Greece and Turkey, and dispatched a military advi- sory group and Marshall Plan-type aid in 1948. The rationale for this commitment was the ‘‘reverse course’’ in Japan, which estab- lished Japan once again as a regional industrial power but one shorn of its previous military and political clout. Here Washington de- ployed a subtle containment strategy, keeping communism out of CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 23
Japan but also constraining this just-defeated enemy from develop- ing strong military forces of its own. To this day Japan remains a semi-sovereign state; it is the second leading economy in the world but lacks the commensurate military and political power. National Security Council (NSC) document 48, signed by Truman at the end of 1949, not only brought containment to East Asia but sought to bring Japanese economic influence back into its former colonial economies and dependencies (the ROK, Taiwan, Southeast Asia). Because Congress refused to fund the US$600 million bill that would have put the ROK on a par with Greece and Turkey, however, the commitment had to remain secret. Nonetheless, Dean Acheson told a Senate committee in secret testimony in 1947 that the United States had drawn the line in Korea, and this commitment governed the Truman/Acheson decision to come to the defence of the ROK in 1950. (3) Because of the revolutionary challenge presented by the new North Korean government and the volatility of the Syngman Rhee govern- ment with its frequent threats to march against the North, Acheson fashioned a civil war deterrent: the United States would contain the North and constrain the South. This is the essence of what he meant to say in his famous ‘‘Press Club’’ speech in January 1950 that ap- peared to leave the ROK out of the US defence perimeter; Acheson was trying to keep both Kim Il Sung and Syngman Rhee off bal- ance.3 Washington has not departed from that civil war deterrent to this day, and it is the primary reason for the continued presence of US troops in Korea – US leaders do not trust the Koreas to be alone together. Nor have they departed from a subtle containment strategy vis-a`-vis Japan, where tens of thousands of US troops remain. (4) The Korean war erupted in June 1950. Within days Truman com- mitted US combat forces and, after the successful amphibious land- ing at Inchon in September 1950, the United States decided to march into the North to overthrow the communist regime. That brought Chinese forces into the war, pushing US forces out of the North and creating a stalemate by the spring of 1951 that became the basis for ending the war in 1953. The undulating line of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) marks where the fighting stopped. The Truman/Acheson war for containment in the summer of 1950 to protect South Korea was a success, but the Truman/Acheson/ MacArthur war for ‘‘roll-back’’ (in the terms of the operative docu- ment, NSC 81, in September 1950) got the United States into a war with China, and that debacle took any serious effort at the ‘‘libera- tion’’ of established communist regimes off the table until the end of 24 BRUCE CUMINGS
the Cold War. This bipartisan consensus on containment, laid down in the winter of 1950 primarily by Acheson and John Foster Dulles (subsequently President Dwight Eisenhower’s Secretary of State), later structured the Viet Nam war, making President Lyndon John- son fear the military (and domestic) political repercussions of invad- ing North Viet Nam. Meanwhile, the occupation of nearly all of its territory was the worst trial-by-fire that North Korea ever experi- enced, and would govern its reaction to any contemporary attempt at ‘‘regime change’’. The Korean war ‘‘demolished the Truman ad- ministration’’, in the words of Dean Acheson, making it impossible for Harry Truman to stand for election in 1952. (5) To stabilize the Korean civil war, amid frequently voiced fears that the North or the South would start the war up again, Dulles reluc- tantly decided in 1957 to introduce nuclear weapons into the Ko- rean peninsula (he was reluctant because the decision broke article 13D of the armistice agreement).4 The United States was thus the first country to introduce nuclear weapons to the peninsula, and they remained in Korea until the end of 1991, when President George H.W. Bush removed them – because it would be impossible to pressure Pyongyang over its Yongbyon nuclear reactor while maintaining such weapons in the South, and because the Army came to see battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons as obsolescent, given the availability of precision-targeted, high-yield conventional weapons. Nonetheless, the standard operating procedures of US war plans since 1958 have called for the early use of nuclear weap- ons in any new Korean war, and this is a critical reason for the for- ward stationing of so many North Korean divisions (so they can get into the South and ‘‘mingle’’ before nuclear weapons are used). (6) Pyongyang’s desire to eliminate or counter that nuclear threat has been palpable since the 1950s, and this threat gave it rights of self- defence under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and international law more generally.5 North Korea has argued since 1991 that it is merely engaged in nuclear deterrence, that is, the classic argument that, once both sides have nuclear weapons, the resulting Mexican standoff negates the possibility of use. (7) The United States spies on North Korea with every technical means available to it, because it lacks effective human intelligence (‘‘hum- int’’) inside the North, and the North responds by putting its facili- ties underground and engaging in elaborate shell games – such as the flurry of reports in the spring of 2005 that it was preparing to test a nuclear weapon. The United States began aerial and elec- tronic surveillance of North Korea before the Korean war began, CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 25
and has maintained an ever more intensive surveillance regime ever since; one can therefore assume that anything that can be seen above ground (such as the famous Yongbyon ‘‘waste site’’ where the North put its plutonium residues) is meant to be seen. The Jap- anese began vast underground military installations in Korea in the later stages of the Second World War, and the North Koreans put nearly everything underground (schools, hospitals, factories, air- plane hangars) between 1950 and 1953 because of US control of the air during the war. They have built underground ever since, with an estimated 15,000 underground installations of security interest; the US commander in the South estimated in 1999 that nearly all mili- tary facilities in the North were underground. This is a rational re- sponse to a condition that former US Defense Secretary William Perry once referred to at the beginning of the era of ‘‘smart’’ weap- ons: given precision targeting, ‘‘anything that can be seen is lost’’. (8) North Korea privileges one value over all others – the doctrine of the sovereign equality of all nations. When they say ‘‘sovereignty is life’’ and its absence is death, they express the decision rules of the only communist country ever to be occupied by a US army – but it survived. Thus it is foolish to expect that the regime will collapse; this regime may go down but, in its present configuration and at any point since 1948, it will go down fighting. (9) The United States has committed itself to Korean unification only once, in July and August 1950 in preparation for the march to the Yalu; otherwise it has shown little interest in ending the Korean di- vision, before or after the war. Until 1998 no South Korean govern- ment had any serious interest in unification, if that meant a prior reconciliation with North Korea and some sort of prolonged auton- omy for the northern leadership within a Korean nation. Unification by ‘‘overcoming communism’’ was the preferred strategy of all pre- vious governments. The North Korean government has made unifi- cation the cornerstone of its policy toward the South since 1948, but until the 1990s it never contemplated a unification in which the southern leadership would still hold power and the capitalist econ- omy would remain – much lip-service to the contrary notwithstand- ing. Since the end of the Cold War, though, it has had to acknowl- edge, in effect, that any likely reunification would place the dominant South first – and thus it desires (if secretly) continued sep- aration. (10) The only serious change since the Korean war in US and South Ko- rean strategy toward the North came in the 1990s, highlighted by the 1994 agreement that froze the North’s nuclear complex for eight years and the engagement or ‘‘Sunshine’’ policy of ROK President 26 BRUCE CUMINGS
Kim Dae Jung (1998–2003). The 1994 accord represented the first time since the Korean war that give-and-take diplomacy had solved any serious problem in Korea. Kim Dae Jung sought a long period of peaceful coexistence with the North, during which a general rec- onciliation could occur, prompted and stimulated by increasing eco- nomic ties between the two Koreas. He predicated this strategy, often derided as naive and idealistic, on two realpolitik principles: first, the North was unlikely to collapse, and therefore had to be dealt with as it is; second, the North had made clear that it would not oppose the continued stationing of US troops in the South if the United States were to normalize relations with Pyongyang. The Clinton administration came to accept a similar strategy in 1999– 2000. (The only serious change in North Korea’s strategic position since the war came in 1991–1992, and it was a dramatic one: the So- viet Union collapsed and China normalized relations with Seoul; Pyongyang thus lost its major power backing and has since been un- able to trust Beijing or Moscow to come to its aid in the event of war. This precarious position has also, of course, biased the North toward a nuclear option.) With these clipped outline points as background, I would like to treat four questions: what has made the unification policies of the DPRK and the ROK different since 1998; what changes did this help induce in US policy; what are the lingering constraints of history; and what should the United States do finally to realize a unified Korean peninsula?
Diplomacy matters, and diplomacy works
Long before the June 2000 summit, when the two Korean heads of state shook hands for the first time since 1945, hopes of reconciliation in Korea had been raised by the two sides before, only to be dashed. I remember vividly the atmosphere of joy and high expectations in Seoul on 4 July 1972, when the ROK and the DPRK jointly published several principles for reunification. Within a few months, however, not only had a full Cold War confrontation reappeared but ROK President Park Chung Hee (1961–1979) had declared martial law and made himself president for life. More joint principles on reconciliation and reunification were issued in late 1991, hardly any of them honoured by either side, and in June 1994 Kim Il Sung proposed a first-ever summit with his southern counterpart – and then died two weeks later. The presumably ‘‘epochal’’ principles from the 1972 and 1991 meetings were as fleeting as the proposed summits. So, what made the difference since 1998? The main difference lies in several years of diplomacy that prepared the ground for success, through dramatic changes in South Korean and CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 27
US policy, through a steady Chinese policy of equidistance and trying to bring North Korea into diplomatic interaction with its enemies, and through compromises by the North that belie its obstinate, nasty image. A three-year crisis over the North’s nuclear programme nearly led to war in June 1994, but energetic diplomacy got the North’s nuclear com- plex frozen with the October Agreed Framework in 1994 – and it re- mained frozen until 2002, locked, sealed and under constant video surveillance, with United Nations inspectors on the ground; 8,000 pluto- nium fuel rods that the North removed from its reactor in 1994 were im- mobilized in concrete casks. In 1997 the North agreed to ‘‘four-power talks’’ (the United States, China, both Koreas) to replace the continuing technical state of war, while quietly dropping its previous refusal to deal with a South that never signed the 1953 armistice. Those talks, now lapsed, were very important because their stated goal was to bring a final end to the Korean conflict through a peace settlement. A hullabaloo in 1998–1999 over a huge underground installation said to harbour nuclear facilities ended with the North yielding to unprecedented US inspections of this site and other security facilities. There were many other positive steps in the mid- and late 1990s. At the end of August 1998 the North launched a rocket that entered the stratosphere over the northern tip of Japan’s Honshu Island, in a failed attempt to put a satellite in orbit to herald the fiftieth anniversary of the DPRK on 9 September 1998. This event was widely (and easily) construed as a massive new threat of long-range missiles from the North, a threat perceived as uncomfortably genuine by wide sectors of the Japa- nese population, but a heaven-sent gift to US advocates of National Mis- sile Defense. In the United States, another ‘‘North Korean crisis’’ occu- pied the media for many months, generating much more heat than it did light about the realities of North Korean missiles.6 From the inception of the regime, the North has always enjoyed foster- ing a fearsome image, but its missiles, like its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, were mainly useful as bargaining chips with the United States. The pro- vocative missile launch was followed by a major agreement with Wash- ington in September 1999 to halt missile tests in return for a slow and partial lifting of the 50-year-old US economic embargo on the North and a US turn toward an engagement policy. Then the North came close to selling its entire missile programme to the United States, as we will see. The year 2000 was one of great hope for peace and reconciliation in Korea until its very end. The new millennium heralded a major turning point in North Korean foreign policy; in January 2000 Pyongyang began a diplomatic offensive, opening relations with Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Philippines and Canada, and it has held discussions about doing the same with France, Japan and, of course, Washington. A first- ever high-level North Korean delegation arrived at the ASEAN meetings 28 BRUCE CUMINGS in July 2000, where US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright met the North Korean foreign minister for the first time. It seems clear that Kim Jong Il intended to greet the new century with a diplomatic posture very different from his father’s in the previous century. When the Clinton ad- ministration finally got around to lifting parts of the embargo in mid-June 2000, just ahead of the summit, the North reaffirmed its commitment to a moratorium on missile tests. It was Kim Dae Jung, however, who really led the process of reconciliation.
Kim Dae Jung’s ‘‘Sunshine’’ diplomacy
After he came into office, President Kim did more to change policy to- ward the North than any previous South Korean or US president, in spite of Seoul facing a far greater immediate threat than anyone else. His pa- tient and persistent ‘‘Sunshine policy’’ grew out of his long-term study of the North–South problem and his experience as a leader whose adult lifetime spans the entire existence of the national division and both Ko- rean states. When Kim Dae Jung finally won election in December 1997, the significance of his victory was simply this: he could never have been elected during the Cold War; security agencies in Korea would have pre- vented it. But in a different era, he and his supporters organized the first genuine democratic transition to the opposition since the ROK was founded. This elemental fact and the new orientation toward the North speak volumes to the benefits that democracy has brought to the South, and will someday bring to the North. His prote´ge´ and successor, Presi- dent Roh Moo Hyun, remained committed to this engagement policy and, unlike Kim Dae Jung, won a dominant position in Korean politics in the spring of 2004 by virtue of his ruling party gaining a majority in the National Assembly. Given the nature of the ROK’s single five-year- term political system, President Roh is guaranteed a strong position until his tenure comes to an end in February 2008. At his inauguration in February 1998 Kim pledged to ‘‘actively pursue reconciliation and cooperation’’ with North Korea, and declared his sup- port for Pyongyang’s attempts at better relations with Washington and Tokyo – in total contrast with his predecessors, who hated any hint of such rapprochement. Kim Dae Jung was also the first head of state pub- licly to call for an end to the 50-year-old US embargo against the North, which he did during a visit to Washington in June 1998. The Clinton ad- ministration received that suggestion with noticeable coldness at the time, but in September 1999 it finally began to do what Kim had asked, by committing itself to engagement and to a slow lifting of the embargo restrictions. Kim also shipped huge amounts of food and other forms of CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 29 aid to the North without demanding concessions, and he refused to allow himself to be provoked by North Korean hard-liners – thus ending the tit- for-tat practice of each side never moving an inch further than the other side, which for decades had ensured that there could be no progress in North–South relations. Kim encouraged many South Korean businesses to invest in the North, and supported especially massive investment by the late Hyundai foun- der and native of northern Korea Chong Ju Yong, who was at the fore- front of North–South economic relations for years. In August 2000 he again went to Pyongyang for talks with Kim Jong Il, and returned with a signed agreement to open hundreds of factories employing up to 700,000 North Korean workers in and around Kaesong (700,000 is the current maximum figure). Several of these facilities are now up and running in this city, bisected by the 38th parallel but firmly in the DPRK since the war ended. But it was of course the June 2000 summit that dramatized this many- sided diplomacy, while also marking the emergence of Kim Jong Il as something of a statesman. When he welcomed Kim Dae Jung at the air- port he showed him a Confucian’s courtesy, walking slowly behind his elder counterpart with a body language so culturally appropriate that even South Korea’s right-wingers decided Kim Jong Il could not be a complete barbarian. He proceeded to discourse with Kim Dae Jung (and everyone else) with apparent aplomb and ease of command. From the mid-1990s onward, of course, North Korea faced extraordi- nary disasters and near extinction as its economy basically collapsed – resulting in a continuing famine and an apparently bottomless require- ment for external aid. Here is an acute crisis of human security that is still not solved, even if by most accounts famine conditions have been largely mitigated today. In spite of these crises the North persevered and, by 1998 when Kim Dae Jung was inaugurated, nearly a decade had passed since the Berlin Wall fell and so one had to assume that North Korea was not going to collapse and would be around for some time to come. Thus Kim Dae Jung pledged his government to peaceful coexistence and to refrain from trying to provoke a North Korean collapse or to ‘‘ab- sorb’’ the North, on the German model of unification. These are the crit- ically important points in all of Kim Dae Jung’s (and Roh Moo Hyun’s) strategy, in my view, and explain why North Korea had the confidence fi- nally to decide upon its own new diplomacy. It had not collapsed, had not disappeared, and, because the South pledged itself to live amicably with the North for at least another generation (without expecting a quick uni- fication), the Clinton administration came to understand that it would have to deal with North Korea as it exists, rather than hoping that it would somehow go away. 30 BRUCE CUMINGS
There was another deeply serious element in the non-collapse of North Korea, because Pyongyang’s leaders warned many times that for the world to hope for its collapse was to hope for the next Korean war. Per- haps the most dramatic statement came in March 1996, on the heels of CIA Director John Deutch’s testimony in the US Congress that it was not a question of whether North Korea would collapse but only a ques- tion of when. Within 48 hours, Vice-Marshal Kim Kwang Jin retorted, ‘‘the point now is not whether a war will break out in the Korean peninsula . . . but when it will be unleashed’’.
A new US policy toward the North: ‘‘As it is, not as we would like it to be’’
In spite of a hotbed of noisy opposition in the US Congress and a seem- ingly endless US media commotion about the North Korean threat, middle-level State Department officials patiently negotiated one agree- ment after another with Pyongyang, in a long series of talks on various problems beginning in January 1991. This culminated in the Depart- ment’s review of the United States’ Korea policy, begun in the fall of 1998, which markedly changed the direction of US policy. The US civil- war-deterrent structure provided an unspoken realpolitik basis for the changes of policy in Seoul and Washington. The United States wants to keep its troops in Korea for the long term (and even after unification ac- cording to Defense Secretary William Cohen’s statement in June 1998), which is mildly surprising given the end of the Cold War so many years before, but much less surprising than North Korea’s acquiescence and even support for that same strategy. US troops thus continue being a general stabilizer for Northeast Asia, but both Korean leaders want them to stay because they are the guarantor of peaceful coexistence – that the South will not be attacked and the North will not be swallowed or ‘‘absorbed’’ by the South, a kind of ‘‘Hong Kong’’ solution to the bor- der (or DMZ) problem in Korea. In the 1990s North Koreans began telling Americans privately that US troops should stay in the South to help Koreans deal with a strong Japan and a rising China, but also to protect the DPRK against absorption by the South. In 1997 Selig Harrison interviewed a North Korean general who told him that, although the North might call publicly for the with- drawal of US troops, in reality US troops should stay in Korea.7 During the June 2000 summit, Kim Jong Il said essentially the same thing directly to Kim Dae Jung. In the fall of 1998 the US State Department had begun a review of US policy toward Korea, led by Ambassador William Perry and Wendy CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 31
Sherman. In May 1999 this group travelled to Pyongyang to meet with First Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Sok Ju and officials close to Kim Jong Il. Perry and his entourage were afforded every courtesy, and the North seemed to have been quite satisfied with the visit.8 Perry finally issued a public version of this policy review in October 1999, the essence of which was a policy of ‘‘engagement’’ predicated on the coexistence of two Koreas for another considerable period of time, a progressive lifting of the 50-year-old US embargo against the North, establishment of diplo- matic relations between the two sides, and a substantial aid package for the North. The North, for its part, agreed to continue to observe the 1994 agreement, to put a moratorium on missile testing, and to continue talks with the United States about ending its missile programme, includ- ing sales of missiles to the Middle East. All this was predicated on the recognition that the DPRK was not likely to go away and therefore had to be dealt with ‘‘as it is, not as we would like it to be’’, in the words of Perry. This helped to set the stage for the June 2000 summit, when Kim Jong Il welcomed Kim Dae Jung to Pyongyang. Kim Dae Jung had said many times that North Korea did not oppose a continuing US troop presence in Korea if Washington were to pursue en- gagement with Pyongyang rather than confrontation (US troops would continue to be useful in policing the DMZ, in ensuring that the South’s superior armed forces do not swallow the North, and in keeping Japan and China at bay). At the June summit Kim Jong Il confirmed this view, telling Kim Dae Jung directly that he did not necessarily oppose the con- tinuing stationing of US troops in Korea. This summit and the US State Department’s major review of policy prepared the ground for a deal on North Korea’s missiles that was deeply in the Korean, US and world in- terest. North Korea was willing to forgo construction, deployment and inter- national sales of all missiles with a range of more than 300 miles. If Pres- ident Clinton were to do Kim Jong Il the favour of a summit in Pyong- yang, US negotiators were convincedthatKimwouldalsohaveagreed to enter the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which would limit all North Korean missiles to an upper range of 180 miles (and thus remove a threat felt deeply in nearby Japan). In return, the United States would have provided US$1 billion in food aid to the regime for an unde- termined number of years.9 In other words, getting North Korea into the MTCR would cost US$1 billion annually and a summit meeting between the US president and Kim Jong Il; National Missile Defense – said by spokespeople of the Bush administration in 2000 to be directed particu- larly at North Korea – had already cost US$60 billion by that time. Kim’s missiles are commodities for sale, indeed they are the biggest earners of foreign exchange for the regime, and President Clinton rightly 32 BRUCE CUMINGS wanted to buy them out. In a fateful month – November 2000 – everything was poised for a Clinton visit to Pyongyang. Clinton wanted to go, and his negotiators had their bags packed for weeks in November – but, as National Security Adviser Sandy Berger later put it, it was not a good idea for the president to leave the country when they did not know ‘‘whether there could be a major constitutional crisis’’.10 After the Su- preme Court stepped in to give the 2000 presidential election to George W. Bush, there was a touch-and-go moment when it looked as if Clinton might still go; along with some other scholars, I met Kim Dae Jung in Seoul on 22 December 2000, and he said he was waiting to hear from the White House if Clinton was on his way, that day or the next. Then I flew back to the United States, in time to read morning headlines saying Clinton had decided against the trip. Later on it became clear that the Bush transition team did not like the deal; even if Clinton had signed off on it, they said they would have undone it, according to former officials in the Clinton administration. Since this plan nearly came to a conclusion, however, history will not be kind to those who pushed it aside in the in- terests of renewed confrontation. The changes in the Korean situation initiated by Kim Dae Jung at his inauguration in 1998 and later sustained by major changes in US and North Korean policy represent the first genuine attempt to achieve peace, reconciliation and a final end to the Korean war within the exist- ing post-Second World War security structures. US troops would remain in the South for the foreseeable future, two Korean states would remain and coexist, US power would still keep one side from trying to overcome the other, and North Korea would accede to this strategy because of its survival needs, because of its morbid fears about its own security, and be- cause of the proximity of Japan and China, which are strong nations at thesametime–forthefirsttime in modern history. These facts can help us appreciate the extent of the change that Kim Jong Il has wrought in North Korean strategy, which is to find a way to keep those troops on the Korean peninsula in spite of six decades in which the DPRK has shouted itself hoarse to get them out. North Korea quietly reconsidered its strategic orientation after the Soviet Union col- lapsed in 1991 and China recognized Seoul in 1992, and sought somehow to involve the only remaining superpower in saving its skin. The super- power, however, wanted the opposite, and North Koreans were hard pressed to communicate this new reality to anyone, including their own people. Eight years of dangerous cat-and-mouse diplomacy ensued, with Pyongyang playing, often dangerously, the hole card of its nuclear pro- gramme and its missiles, and external observers assuming that North Korea was an unregenerate terrorist monster suddenly let loose as a post–Cold War ‘‘rogue state’’. CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 33
These dramatic shifts are the key to understanding how the ongoing reconciliation and diplomacy might finally dissolve the extraordinary ten- sions that have inhabited Korea for half a century. This explains why Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun have both said they wanted to end the Ko- rean war before leaving office, but that Korean reunification is still 20 or 30 years in the future. Above all, it explains why Pyongyang does not fear the consequences of the ongoing reconciliation. Success simply requires that the United States transform its role, from being the coach, cheer- leader and often the quarterback of the southern side, to being an honest broker in bringing the two Koreas together (or keeping them apart, as the case may be). Until the Bush administration came in, that strategy did not seem difficult because the Pentagon wants to stay in Korea – forever, it would seem. The continuing US commitment to Korea is, moreover, still just one as- pect of the US strategic position in East Asia and the Pacific. Japan also remains within the post-war settlement hammered out in 1947–1951 and shows no signs of getting out of it, Okinawan protests and nationalist stir- rings to the contrary. In 1995 the Pentagon projected two more decades of stationing some 100,000 troops in Japan and Korea, but US strategy now places no end-point on how long the troops will stay in the region. In recent years the Pentagon has raised its guard against a new chal- lenger for control of Pacific security; Pentagon annual reports do not name that ‘‘challenger’’ but recent events – such as the warming of rela- tions with Viet Nam, India and North Korea (until 2001), rumours that the United States might defend Taiwan against a mainland attack, and a string of new US bases in central Asia since the attacks of 11 September 2001 – have led many Chinese to see a growing US encirclement of China. Other nations in East and Southeast Asia, however, do not voice much dissatisfaction with this outcome. In the light of a continued strong US commitment to the security of East and Southeast Asia, a pacified Korean peninsula in which the two states coexist, if not a unified Korea, fits the logic of US strategy in Asia for the first time since Dean Rusk first drew a line at the 38th parallel in August 1945.
The confrontation between Washington and Pyongyang since 2000: Pre-emptive intelligence or pre-emptive strikes?
US President George W. Bush resisted high-level talks with Pyongyang for more than a year after assuming office, in spite of the outgoing Clin- ton administration having left on the table a tentative agreement to buy out all of the North’s medium- and long-range missiles, as we have seen. When Bush finally dispatched US Assistant Secretary of State James 34 BRUCE CUMINGS
Kelly to Pyongyang in October 2002, Kelly accused the North of having a second nuclear programme, to enrich uranium and build more atomic bombs. According to Kelly, his counterparts at first denied that they had such a programme, then reversed themselves to admit that they were de- veloping not only an enriched-uranium bomb but more powerful weap- ons as well. All we have to go on from this strange episode is what Kelly chose to tell the press about his new intelligence evidence and what he chose to say about what the North Koreans allegedly told him. Within days of Kelly’s return, administration officials told the New York Times that the 1994 Agreed Framework was dead,11 and shortly thereaf- ter they cut off the heavy heating oil that Washington had been providing as interim compensation under the 1994 agreement. In quick response, Pyongyang declared that the 1994 agreement had collapsed and pro- ceeded to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, kick out UN in- spectors, remove the seals and closed-circuit cameras from the Yongbyon complex, regain control of 8,000 fuel rods that had been encased for eight years, and re-start the reactor. (Basically this was a lock-step recapitula- tion in a few short weeks of what the North had done in 1993–1994 to get Clinton’s attention.) The North hinted darkly that the hostile policies of the Bush administration left it no choice but to develop ‘‘a powerful physical deterrent force’’. In spite of all this, in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq the Bush administration continued to downplay its own evidence that the North now had not one but two bomb programmes and refused to call the situation a ‘‘crisis’’. This clearly befuddled the North: as one DPRK general told a Russian visitor, ‘‘When we stated we don’t have a nuclear weapon, the USA [said] we do have it, and now when we are [saying] we created nuclear weapons, the USA [says] we’re just bluffing.’’12 What happened in October 2002 is that both governments, in the words of a knowledgeable specialist who spent most of his career at the RAND Corporation, ‘‘opted to exploit the intelligence for political purposes’’. And thus began the unravelling ‘‘of close to a decade of painfully crafted diplomatic arrangements designed to prevent full-scale nuclear weapons development on the Korean peninsula. By year’s end both countries had walked away from their respective commitments under the U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework of October 1994.’’13 RAND veteran Jonathan Pol- lack is not the sort of analyst who usually departs from judgements of Washington insiders, but he found that Bush’s intelligence estimates ‘‘of- fered more definitive claims’’ about the North’s nuclear capabilities than previous intelligence reports had, and seemed to fudge the date when the CIA discovered evidence of the North importing enriched-uranium tech- nology. The discovery occurred in 1997 or 1998, and the Clinton adminis- tration had fully briefed the incoming Bush people in 2000–2001 on the CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 35 evidence. Yet Kelly and others in the Bush administration sat on this evidence for 18 months and then left the impression that the programme had just been uncovered in the summer of 2002. Kelly never presented ‘‘specific or detailed evidence to substantiate’’ his claims, either in Pyong- yang or to the press when he returned home, nor did he ask his DPRK interlocutors for explanation or clarification of whatever evidence he may have brought with him. TheUSpressimmediatelyacceptedKelly’s judgement that the North Koreans were big cheats who had failed to honour their agreements, and the highly enriched-uranium programme took on a life of its own in the mimetic US media – repeated endlessly to tar and denigrate North Korea. Left unmentioned in any press articles that I came across, how- ever, was the extraordinary utility of an enriched-uranium programme for the Light-Water Reactors (LWRs) that were being built to compen- sate the North for freezing its graphite reactors in 1994. The virtue of the LWRs from the US standpoint was that their fuel would have to come from outside the DPRK, thus establishing a dependency relation- ship that could easily be monitored; but this was precisely the vice of the LWRs for the independent-minded North. As Pollack put it, ‘‘it seems entirely plausible that P’yoˆ ngyang envisioned the need for an indigenous enrichment capability . . . [because] the fuel requirements for a pair of thousand-megawatt [light water] reactors are substantial and open- ended’’.14 Furthermore, uranium enrichment to a level useful for LWR fuel is much easier than the further refinement necessary to create fissile fuel. But the Bush administration smothered all discussion of this issue with widely trumpeted claims of a second nuclear bomb programme. One interpretation of Kelly’s behaviour in Pyongyang is that he pre- emptively used a bunch of intelligence reports (ones never divulged in any detail to the media) to make sure no diplomatic progress could occur between Washington and Pyongyang. But his visit also came in the wake of Bush’s new pre-emptive doctrine, announced in September 2002. (In any case, relations between the United States and North Korea have not moved beyond the stalemate created in late 2002, except for the Six- Party Talks that China sponsored beginning in 2003, which have achieved nothing as of this writing, and the North’s successful test of a 1 kiloton plutonium bomb on 9 October 2006, widely interpreted as a distinct fail- ure for US policy.) The acute danger in Korea today derives from a combination of typical and predictable North Korean cheating and provocation, longstanding US war plans to use nuclear weapons in the earliest stages of a new Ko- rean war, and this new ‘‘Bush Doctrine’’. The ‘‘Bush Doctrine’’ conflates existing plans for nuclear pre-emption in a crisis initiated by the North, which have been standard operating procedure for the US military for 36 BRUCE CUMINGS decades, with the apparent determination to attack states such as North Korea simply because they have or would like to have nuclear weapons like those that the United States still amasses by the thousands – pre- emptive wars in the name of non-proliferation. US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made matters worse in the spring of 2003 by demanding revisions in the basic war plan for Korea (‘‘Operations Plan 5030’’). The basic strategy, according to insiders who have read the plan, was ‘‘to topple Kim’s regime by destabilizing its mili- tary forces’’, so they would overthrow him and thus accomplish a ‘‘regime change’’. The plan was pushed ‘‘by many of the same administration hard-liners who advocated regime change in Iraq’’. Unnamed senior Bush administration officials considered elements of this new plan ‘‘so ag- gressive that they could provoke a war’’. Short of attacking or trying to force a military coup, Rumsfeld and company wanted the US military to ‘‘stage a weeks-long surprise military exercise, designed to force North Koreans to head for bunkers and deplete valuable stores of food, water, and other resources’’.15 This is precisely how the invasion began in 1950. North Korea an- nounced a long summer military exercise along the 38th parallel, mobiliz- ing some 40,000 troops. In the middle of these war games, several divi- sions suddenly veered south and took Seoul in three days; only a tiny handful of the highest officials knew that the summer exercises were the prelude to an invasion. Half a century later came Rumsfeld with his pro- vocative plans, a man who according to two eyewitnesses was surprised to learn when he joined the Pentagon that the United States still had nearly 40,000 troops in Korea. The US military has often provided a salutary limit on plans that would upset the fragile stability of the Korean confrontation. In October 1998, Marine Lieutenant General Raymond P. Ayres spoke publicly (on a not- for-attribution basis, but his name leaked to the press) about plans for re- gime change in the DPRK, acting pre-emptively if the United States had ‘‘unambiguous signs that North Korea is preparing to attack’’. Ayres said that ‘‘the entire resources’’ of the US Marines would be thrown into the battle, to ‘‘abolish North Korea as a state and . . . ‘reorganize’ it’’ under South Korean control. ‘‘We’ll kill ’em all.’’16 But a retired officer who commanded the US-ROK First Corps in Korea, Lt. Gen. John H. Cush- man, said that, if pre-emptive strikes were part of a US war plan, ‘‘it would be very dangerous and would represent a fundamental departure from the past. No commander wants to wait for the other side to strike first if he can see it coming. But there is a very delicate calculation on both sides and it’s very important to give North Korea assurance that we will not be the first to attack.’’17 Yet in September 2002, in spite of the ‘‘very delicate calculation’’ in Korea that is often likened to a hair trigger, CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 37 the Bush administration made pre-emption the centrepiece of its strategy in ‘‘the war on terror’’. Larry Niksch, a long-time specialist on Asian affairs at the Congres- sional Research Service and a person never given to leaps toward un- founded conclusions, cited Rumsfeld’s war plans and wrote that ‘‘regime change in North Korea is indeed the Bush administration’s policy objec- tive’’. If recent, sporadically applied sanctions against the DPRK and in- terdiction of its shipping do not produce a regime change or ‘‘diplomatic capitulation’’, then Rumsfeld planned to escalate from a pre-emptive strike against Yongbyon (which Clinton came close to mounting in 1994) to ‘‘a broader plan of massive strikes against multiple targets’’. The vehicles for Rumsfeld’s ‘‘massive strikes’’ were newly developed missiles that are said to penetrate deeply underground before detonating a ‘‘small’’ nuclear explosive. In 2003 he sought a congressional repeal of the decade-old ban on manufacturing small nuclear weapons (although he did not succeed in getting it before he left office). The Bush adminis- tration thought ‘‘low-yield’’ nuclear weapons could be effective in deter- ring ‘‘emerging nuclear powers like North Korea and Iran’’. These new earth-penetrating weapons would have hardened casings (probably made of depleted uranium) enabling them ‘‘to crash through thick rock and concrete’’.18 Senate opponents argued that repealing this bill would sig- nal the death-knell of efforts at non-proliferation: ‘‘We’re driving reck- lessly down the road that we’re telling other people not to walk down’’, said Senator Carl Levin.19 The only problem with Rumsfeld’s war plan was that it defied the laws of physics: there is no technology yet devel- oped or imagined that can penetrate the earth’s surface more than about 50 feet. So the only answer is larger and larger nuclear warheads, such that you target Kim Jong Il and wipe out a large urban neighbourhood, or maybe a city.20 (Perhaps the only silver lining in the very dark storm clouds over Iraq is that, by getting bogged down in a war of choice, Bush has barely a single combat brigade available were a conflict to develop in Korea, and thus a pre-emptive attack is now highly unlikely.) The history of nuclear terror in Korea is by no means one-sided, and remains today the worst-case scenario for a total catastrophe in the hu- man security of the peninsula.21 The United States terrorized the DPRK with nuclear weapons during and after the Korean war and was the only power to introduce nuclear weapons to Korean soil, as we have seen. They remained there until 1991, when the first President Bush withdrew battlefield nuclear weapons from around the world – which of course did not end the nuclear threat to the North, since Trident submarines (some- times called a holocaust in one delivery package) can glide silently up to its coast at any time. In the aftermath of the initial nuclear deployments in the late 1950s, Kim Il Sung openly said that the North’s only recourse 38 BRUCE CUMINGS was to build as widely and as deeply underground as possible, on the assumption that anything visible above ground would be wiped clean in a war. When Hans Blix conducted the first UN inspections of the Yongbyon nuclear site in 1992, he was astonished to find ‘‘two cavernous underground shelters’’, access to which required ‘‘several minutes to descend by escalator’’. They were built, Blix was told, in case someone attacked the complex with nuclear weapons.22 It was bunkers like this that Rumsfeld hoped to reach with his ‘‘low-yield’’ nuclear weapons. The United States remains a belligerent in the war that never ended in Korea, just as does North Korea. The provocative actions in the spring of 2003 might well have instigated another Korean war, given what had just happened in Iraq. On 18 April 2003, North Korea stated in a news re- lease that ‘‘the Iraqi war teaches a lesson that in order to prevent a war and defend the security of a country and the sovereignty of a nation it is necessary to have a powerful physical deterrent force’’ (the euphemism it has used since Kelly’s October 2002 visit to suggest that it might possess nuclear weapons).23 Clearly, however, the North Koreans do not want war; even amid these dire US threats, they used the same brief news re- lease to signal for the first time that they were willing to meet the United States in multilateral talks: ‘‘if the U.S. has a willingness to make a bold switchover in its Korea policy, we will not stick to any particular dialogue format.’’ A few months later, Six-Party Talks on North Korea opened in Beijing. These talks represented a salutary return to diplomacy, but it would be a foolish mistake to assume that, if war comes to North Korea, it won’t go down fighting.
What is to be done?
For more than a decade North Korea has sought a ‘‘package deal’’ with the United States. The North has maintained that it would give up its nu- clear programme and its missiles in return for a termination of mutual hostility, a formal end to the Korean war, the lifting of various embar- goes that the United States maintains on the North, diplomatic recogni- tion, and direct or indirect compensation for relinquishing these very ex- pensive programmes. Its will to do so was tested in 1994, when it froze its entire nuclear complex and kept it frozen under the eyes of UN inspec- tors for eight years, until Bush made it crystal clear that he would not ful- fil the US side of the 1994 bargain. In a 2003 book, Michael O’Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki revived a ‘‘grand diplomatic bargain’’ to accomplish a similar package agreement, an ambitious and complex programme that is worth a careful perusal by anyone concerned with the issues. CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 39
In return for a verifiable end to the North’s nuclear programmes, a ban on selling and testing its missiles, a steep cut in its conventional forces, outward-opening economic reforms and the beginnings of a dialogue about human rights in the North (or the lack thereof), the authors write, Washington should be ready to respond with a non-aggression pledge, a peace treaty that would finally end the Korean war, full diplomatic rela- tions, and an aid programme of ‘‘perhaps $2 billion a year for a decade’’ (that burden to be shared with its allies). The authors muster a host of nuanced, clever and convincing arguments on behalf of their strategy, with the ultimate goal being ‘‘a gradual, soft, ‘velvet’ form of regime change – even if Kim Jong Il holds onto power throughout the process’’.24 The denouement to the Korean confrontation described above is better than the decades of tension that preceded it, but it cannot be the final outcome. As recent years have shown, a rapprochement can easily be reversed, returning the situation almost overnight to the peculiar, antique cold war that has occupied Korea for decades. Furthermore, any pro- longed division of Korea ineluctably calls forth people who either want to keep the peninsula divided (through the well-rooted ‘‘division sys- tems’’ on both sides and the interests of foreign powers), or want to solve the division by force. I would therefore like to end this chapter with a few more points for debate and discussion. First, a neutralized Korea could also solve the problems of security and unity, predicated on the withdrawal of US troops and solemn and verifi- able agreements with the other powers to respect Korean sovereignty and neutrality. One of the wisest US experts on East Asia, the late Sena- tor Mike Mansfield, was the first to table the idea of neutrality in 1961, on the model of Austria’s unification and Cold War neutrality in 1955. The diplomatic record, going back to the first discussions over Korea between the United States and the Soviet Union at Potsdam in July 1945, illus- trates the maxim that no great power had an interest in dominating all of Korea, and all eventually settled for half a loaf. Why could they not now settle for a full loaf, run by Koreans and for Koreans? After all, a species of neutrality and autonomy was fundamentally Korea’s position in the Northeast Asian world order for hundreds of years before the im- perial scramble of the nineteenth century. Neutrality also would enable the United States to make a graceful exit from a troop commitment that seems to grow more unpopular and anachronistic by the day in South Korea. Neutrality amid radical disarmament by both sides would be the essential enabling condition that would move the current Korean track of reconciliation onto a realistic future track of reunification. Selig Harri- son has a learned discussion of Korean neutrality in his book Korean Endgame;25 this is the ‘‘first-best’’ solution for US diplomacy, in my 40 BRUCE CUMINGS view, because it would finally extricate the United States from a Korean problem that it has never been able to solve. The second-best solution is the one Kim Dae Jung and Bill Clinton were driving toward when the Democratic Party train derailed in Novem- ber 2000 – eliminating North Korea’s nuclear programme and missiles and ending the US non-recognition and sanctions policy toward the North, which has never served to change North Korean behaviour. This engagement strategy has the virtue of being founded on the realities of security on the peninsula over the past half-century and protects the se- curity interests of all parties, but it puts off reunification until the next generation – and it can easily be reversed. The worst solution, however, is the one we have been moving toward in recent years: a nuclear-armed North Korea, which may well provoke Japan and/or the ROK to go nuclear and thus break the very structure of US security in Northeast Asia fashioned so long ago, in the time of Harry Truman and Dean Acheson. The ‘‘North Korean problem’’ is an outgrowth of a truly terrible his- tory going all the way back to the collapse of the international system in the Great Depression and the world war that followed it, a history through which the Korean people have suffered beyond measure and be- yond any American’s imagination. The United States and its leaders could have solved the North Korean problem decades ago but US leaders have chosen not to try (with the exception of Bill Clinton), and in this new century we are all the worse for it. It is high time, and there is still time, for an enlightened diplomacy to emerge that could solve most of the outstanding problems between the United States and North Korea and provide an enormous movement forward in solving the North’s human security difficulties – if only there were the will to do so.
Notes
1. This section is drawn in revised form from my unpublished contribution to the Task Force on U.S. Korea Policy that Selig Harrison and I organized, sponsored by the Cen- ter for International Policy and the Center for East Asian Studies, University of Chi- cago. 2. For full documentation see Bruce Cumings, The Origins of the Korean War, 2 vols, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1981, 1990. 3. As the US Ambassador to Korea, John Muccio, put it in November 1949, the problem was in getting sufficient military assistance ‘‘to enable the Koreans to defend this area and at the same time keep them from getting over-eager on moving North’’. Later he remarked bluntly: ‘‘We were in a very difficult position, a very subtle position, because if we gave Rhee and his cohorts what they wanted, they could have started to move north the same as the North started to move south. And the onus would have been on CREATING KOREAN INSECURITY: THE US ROLE 41
us.’’ State Department 895.00 file, box 946, Muccio to Butterworth, 1 November 1949; Truman Library, Muccio oral history interview no. 177, 27 December 1973. 4. The best source on this complicated issue is Donald Stone Macdonald, US–Korean Re- lations from Liberation to Self-Reliance, The Twenty-Year Record: An Interpretive Sum- mary of the Archives of the US Department of State for the Period 1945 to 1965, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1992, pp. 18–20, 23, 78–79. 5. On 8 July 1996, the International Court of Justice at the Hague stated that the use or threat of nuclear weapons should be outlawed as ‘‘the ultimate evil’’. It could not de- cide, however, whether the use of nuclear weapons for self-defence was justified: ‘‘The Court cannot conclude definitively whether the threat or use of nuclear weapons would be lawful or unlawful in an extreme circumstance of self-defense, in which the very sur- vival of a state would be at stake’’ (New York Times, 9 July 1996). By this standard, North Korea is far more justified in developing nuclear weapons than the United States is in threatening a non-nuclear North Korea with nuclear annihilation. 6. North Korea’s three-stage missile does not have enough lift capacity to carry a nuclear warhead, nor does the North apparently have the technology either to lighten missile throw-weight (for example by using aluminium alloys) or to manufacture a sufficiently small nuclear warhead (which would require high-speed X-ray cameras that the North does not have); North Korea does not appear to have heat-resistant technologies that would keep the warhead from burning up upon re-entry into the atmosphere. See Selig Harrison, ‘‘The Missiles of North Korea: How Real a Threat?’’, World Policy Journal, Vol. 17, No. 3, 2000, pp. 13–24. 7. See Selig Harrison, ‘‘Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea’’, Foreign Policy,No.106, Spring 1997. 8. ‘‘Talks between Kang Sok Ju and William Perry’’, Korean Central News Agency (Pyongyang), 28 May 1999. 9. See Michael R. Gordon’s excellent investigative report, ‘‘How Politics Sank Accord on Missiles with North Korea’’, New York Times, 6 March 2001, pp. A1, A8. I also con- firmed the details of his report during a meeting with Ambassador Perry at Stanford University, USA, in March 2001. 10. Gordon, ‘‘How Politics Sank Accord’’. 11. David E. Sanger, ‘‘U.S. to Withdraw from Arms Accord with North Korea’’, New York Times, 20 October 2002, p. A1. 12. Dr Alexander V. Vorontsoz visited the DPRK recently, and I am grateful to him for sending me a copy of his recollections of the visit. 13. Jonathan D. Pollack, ‘‘The United States, North Korea, and the End of the Agreed Framework’’, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003, pp. 1, 13 (I read this on the Internet so my pagination may not follow that of the published article). Pollack is now teaching at the Naval War College. 14. Pollack, ‘‘The United States, North Korea, and the End of the Agreed Framework’’, p. 15. 15. Bruce B. Auster and Kevin Whitelaw, ‘‘Pentagon Plan 5030, A New Blueprint for Fac- ing Down North Korea’’, U.S. News and World Report, 21 July 2003. 16. Richard Halloran, a veteran correspondent, was in this audience and reported Ayres’ statements on the Internet on 14 November 1998; when I asked him to identify the source by name, he declined. However, Selig Harrison later identified the source as General Ayres. 17. Quoted in Selig Harrison, Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Dis- engagement, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002, p. 122. 18. James C. Dao, ‘‘Senate Panel Votes to Lift Ban on Small Nuclear Arms’’, New York Times, 10 May 2003, p. A2. 42 BRUCE CUMINGS
19. Ibid. 20. I am indebted for this information to several discussions with Stephen Schwartz, the editor of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 21. I develop my arguments in this section in much more detail in my co-authored book (with Ervand Abrahamian and Moshe Ma’oz), Inventing the Axis of Evil: The Truth about North Korea, Iran, and Syria, New York: The New Press, 2004. 22. ‘‘Nuclear Site in North Korea Provides Clues on Weapons’’, New York Times,17May 1992. 23. Korean Central News Agency (Pyongyang), 18 April 2003. 24. Michael O’Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: How to Deal with a Nuclear North Korea, New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003, pp. 19, 50. 25. Harrison, Korean Endgame. 43
3 Living with ambiguity: North Korea’s strategic weapons programmes
Gary Samore and Adam Ward
North Korea’s nuclear test on 9 October 2006 established beyond doubt that North Korea has acquired a nuclear weapons capability, but many uncertainties remain concerning the sophistication and size of North Ko- rea’s nuclear arsenal. In general, the task of assessing North Korea’s weapons programmes is arduous for many reasons. Based on public in- formation, conclusions about North Korea’s nuclear, chemical and bio- logical weapons capabilities, ballistic missiles programme and conven- tional forces are woven from a cloth of different strands. One strand of information is official reports from governments seeking to penetrate North Korea’s veil of secrecy, such as public reports from the United States, South Korea and Russia. However, this information is qualified. North Korea is a notoriously ‘‘hard target’’ for intelligence collection. Reliable human sources are sparse, communication intercepts are frag- mentary, and satellite and other remote sensing means provide limited information, subject to multiple interpretations. Governments must also be cautious that information released in public does not jeopardize al- ready fragile sources and methods, assisting more effective North Korean concealment and deception efforts. Given the difficulties of collecting information, government ‘‘assess- ments’’ of North Korea are analytical judgements, based on evaluations and estimations of capabilities and motivations, rather than hard conclu- sions based on conclusive evidence. Moreover, in assessing ambiguous and uncertain foreign threats, intelligence agencies naturally lean to- wards ‘‘worst-case’’ assessments to err on the side of caution. This is a
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 44 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD universal and understandable tendency. Prudently, governments prefer to plan on the worst case rather than be surprised by it. Another strand of information on North Korea comes from direct ob- servations. For nearly a decade, North Korea’s main nuclear facilities at the Yongbyon nuclear centre have been inspected and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which provides a techno- logical baseline for evaluating their capabilities. Observation of North Korean missile tests provides some technical characteristics and parame- ters of missiles under development, and periodic interdictions of missile- related exports provide technical details of missiles that are being pro- duced. This information is also limited. IAEA inspections have not extended to clandestine facilities, such as those presumed to exist in asso- ciation with North Korea’s enrichment programme, or to facilities and activities linked to nuclear weapons development, which are beyond the mandate of IAEA inspectors. Observations of missile tests and intercep- tion of missile exports cannot illuminate less observable research and de- velopment activities or answer questions of overall North Korean missile production, deployment and armament. There are a number of weaker strands of information. Purported ‘‘leaks’’ of government intelligence may provide insight into sensitive in- formation, but they must be treated with caution. Leaked information is not necessarily accurate information. Officials who disclose classified in- telligence to the media may have a political agenda, and it is often diffi- cult to ascertain the veracity of such information. Over the past decade, a number of North Korean defectors and refugees have come forward with intriguing information on North Korean military programmes. Some of this information has proved to be credible, some of it is implausible, and some cannot be confirmed. Finally, there is information from the North Korean government itself. Obviously, this information has to be mea- sured against Pyongyang’s interest in manipulating the outside world’s perceptions of its capabilities. With all these pitfalls in mind, this chapter tries to present a balanced and cautious set of assessments.
The nuclear programme
North Korea’s nuclear efforts over the past 25 years can be divided into four distinct phases.
Phase 1: Origins of North Korea’s nuclear programme
North Korea’s nuclear programme was born with assistance from the So- viet Union. A 1959 agreement enabled a variety of technical and scien- NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 45 tific exchanges and projects, including construction of the Yongbyon Nu- clear Research Centre, training of North Korean scientific and technical personnel, and geological surveys for nuclear applications. Soviet assis- tance was not specifically intended to assist the development of nuclear weapons, but it allowed Pyongyang to master the basic technologies needed to produce and separate plutonium, which North Korea later em- ployed in its nuclear programme. Initially, the principal facilities housed at Yongbyon comprised a small research reactor, the IRT-2000, designed to conduct basic nuclear re- search and to produce small quantities of medical and industrial isotopes, and an adjacent radiochemical laboratory for extracting isotopes from ‘‘targets’’ irradiated in the IRT-2000. The materials and equipment also provided North Korea with the means to experiment with the production and extraction of small amounts of plutonium, which Pyongyang ac- knowledged to the IAEA in 1993. These Soviet-supplied facilities were placed under IAEA inspections in 1977. However, owing to IAEA pro- cedures for monitoring facilities of this type, they were not subject to close scrutiny. The total amount of plutonium produced is, therefore, un- certain.
Phase 2: North Korea’s plutonium production programme
Around 1980, North Korea launched a concerted national programme to build a series of industrial-scale facilities capable of producing sig- nificant amounts of plutonium for a nuclear weapons programme, as well as for the country’s nuclear power industry. The core of this programme was three gas-cooled, graphite-moderated, natural-uranium- fuelled reactors: a small 5 MW(e) research reactor at Yongbyon; a larger 50 MW(e) prototype power reactor at Yongbyon; and a full-scale 200 MW(e) power reactor at Taechon. Around this trio of reactors, North Korea also constructed facilities for the full plutonium fuel cycle. Uranium mining and milling North Korea began large-scale uranium mining operations at various lo- cations near Sunchon and Pyongsan in the late 1970s or early 1980s. The raw uranium-bearing ore was shipped to uranium milling factories, where it was crushed and chemically processed to produce U-308 or ‘‘yellow cake’’, which was then transported to the Yongbyon nuclear centre for further processing and fabrication into nuclear reactor fuel. Actual pro- duction of yellow cake in the decade before the 1994 nuclear freeze is unknown. North Korea’s current mining and milling capacity is also un- 46 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD known, but it appears unlikely that yellow cake production is a significant constraint on its immediate nuclear requirements. Uranium conversion and fuel fabrication Between 1980 and 1985, North Korea built a substantial factory at Yongbyon to refine yellow cake and to produce uranium metal fuel ele- ments for its graphite-moderated reactors. North Korea is known to have produced enough fuel prior to the freeze for the initial core load for the 5 MW(e) reactor and at least one fresh core load. It is also known to have produced slightly more than one-half of the fuel required for the 50 MW(e) reactor under construction. North Korea could have produced a significant amount of additional fuel before 1992 that it failed to declare to the IAEA. A 5 MW(e) experimental power reactor During the 1980s, the most important facility in North Korea’s plutonium production programme was a small research reactor located at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre, which was designated an ‘‘experi- mental power reactor’’. Reactor construction began in 1980, and the reactor went critical in August 1985. It operated intermittently from 1986 until 1994, when it was shut down under the Agreed Framework. In theory, operating at full power for 300 days per year, this reactor could produce approxi- mately 7.5 kg of weapons-grade plutonium annually in the discharged spent fuel. The operational history of the reactor between 1986 and 1994 (and hence how much plutonium was produced) is shrouded in mystery. The 50 MW(e) prototype power reactor In 1984, North Korea began construction of a larger reactor at Yongbyon, using the same basic materials and technology as utilized in the 5 MW(e) reactor. According to North Korean officials, the reactor was within a year of initial service at the time of the nuclear freeze, although this claim was never verified. Because it was never completed, it is unknown whether the reactor would be capable of full-power operations, and there are no clear signs that construction on the reactor has resumed since the nuclear freeze ended in 2002. The 200 MW(e) power reactor In the late 1980s, North Korea began construction at Taechon of a full- scale version of the 50 MW(e) reactor, based on the same technology. This reactor would, theoretically, be capable of producing up to 220 kg of weapons-grade plutonium annually if operated at full power for 300 NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 47 days per year. It was in the early stages of construction when the nuclear freeze came into effect in 1994 and no work has resumed at the reactor site since the freeze ended in 2002. Radiochemical laboratory/reprocessing plant In 1984, North Korea began construction of an industrial-scale reprocess- ing plant to separate plutonium from spent nuclear fuel at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre. During construction, the exact purpose of the facility was debated within the US intelligence community. Some analysts believed that it was most likely a reprocessing facility, whereas others ar- gued that it could be engaged in non-nuclear industrial activities. It was not until the IAEA conducted inspections in 1992 that it was confirmed as a reprocessing plant, which Pyongyang euphemistically called a ‘‘radio- chemical laboratory’’. In 1992, IAEA inspectors discovered that one re- processing line had been completed at the plant and that a second was under construction. If both lines were operating continuously for 300 days per year, the plant would have a total nominal capacity to process annually some 200 tonnes of Magnox spent fuel, more than sufficient to handle the spent fuel that would typically be discharged each year by the 5 MW(e) and the 50 MW(e) reactors. In 1994, when IAEA inspectors returned to monitor the nuclear freeze, they found that North Korea had made considerable progress in installing equipment for the second re- processing line, which was scheduled for completion in 1996. The 1992 plutonium mystery North Korea’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nu- clear Weapons (NPT) in December 1985 necessitated that it place all its nuclear facilities and materials under international inspection and pursue nuclear technology solely for peaceful purposes. Although North Korea had 18 months under the treaty to negotiate a comprehensive safeguard agreement with the IAEA, it did not sign this agreement until January 1992. In all, six official inspection missions took place in North Korea in 1992, before Pyongyang denied inspectors access to suspect nuclear waste storage facilities and threatened to withdraw from the NPT. During the first inspection in 1992, North Korea told the IAEA that it had test-run the reprocessing plant between March and May 1990, during which 86 damaged fuel rods (which had been removed from the 5 MW(e) reactor in 1989), as well as 172 fresh fuel rods, were reprocessed in a single campaign of three batches. To verify the accuracy of North Korea’s declaration, the IAEA took samples from the extracted plutonium, as well as from the waste tanks and work areas at the reprocessing plant. Such samples contained individual dust particles that could be analysed 48 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD to deduce the fractional content and ratio of different isotopes produced in the irradiated fuel. Analysis of these samples highlighted several tech- nical discrepancies in North Korea’s initial declaration to the IAEA. As the IAEA began to discover these discrepancies, the United States reviewed the record of satellite imagery of the 5 MW(e) reactor. Based on the absence of steam plumes from the cooling tower, the reactor ap- peared to have been shut down for about two months in early 1989. US analysts estimated that, in the worst case, North Korea could in fact have unloaded the entire core load during the two-month shutdown. This con- clusion was based on a calculation of how quickly one or two fuel ma- chines could unload spent fuel and load fresh fuel, assuming the North Koreans worked around the clock. Based on Pyongyang’s account of the reactor’s operating history prior to the 1989 fuel discharge, the entire core would have contained about 9.5 kg of plutonium, which, assuming a likely range of potential 10–30 per cent reprocessing losses, could have yielded as much as 6.5–8.5 kg of plutonium. If the most heavily irradiated half of the core fuel rods were discharged in 1989, they would have con- tained about 7 kg of plutonium, which could have yielded about 5–6 kg of separated plutonium if reprocessing losses ranged between 10 per cent and 30 per cent. In this scenario, North Korea could have loaded a new core or a substantial portion of a new core in 1989 and then falsified the operating records between 1989 and 1992 to make it appear to be the original one. To add credence to this scenario, US analysts accumulated satellite ev- idence that North Korea had built, operated and concealed two under- ground waste storage sites at Yongbyon. Tipped off by US information, the IAEA sought access to the two suspect waste sites to determine whether radioactive waste, produced by undeclared reprocessing activity, was stored at the sites. In September 1992, IAEA inspectors were allowed to visit one facility but were told it did not have a basement. After North Korea refused repeated demands for greater access, including for the ex- traction of samples from underneath the building, the IAEA requested a ‘‘special inspection’’ of the two suspect waste sites in February 1993. Pyongyang responded, in March 1993, by invoking its right to withdraw from the NPT, setting in motion the 1993–1994 nuclear crisis. Washington’s assessment that North Korea might have produced ‘‘enough plutonium for one or possibly two nuclear weapons’’ or 8–12 kg of separated plutonium before 1992 was, then, based on five factors: Analysis by the IAEA strongly indicated that North Korea had not fully declared its plutonium production prior to 1992, although sam- pling ‘‘discrepancies’’ could not determine how much plutonium North Korea was hiding. Based on satellite surveillance of past operations of the 5 MW(e) reac- NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 49
tor and estimates of North Korea’s de-fuelling capability, the United States estimated that most or all of the core could have been unloaded in April–May 1989, containing some 6.5–8.5 kg of plutonium after re- processing. Pyongyang could have falsified the reactor’s operating re- cords in order to disguise the insertion of a second fresh core in 1989. North Korea’s decision to unload the reactor in June 1994 in a manner that made it impossible to reconstruct its operating history reinforced suspicion that it wanted to conceal such information. North Korea could have employed the small IRT-2000 research reactor to produce small amounts of plutonium every year, perhaps generating 2–4 kg in total. Two suspect nuclear waste sites provided plausible locations for North Korea to divert and hide substantial quantities of nuclear waste pro- duced as a result of undeclared reprocessing. North Korea’s unwillingness to cooperate with the IAEA convinced many in Washington that Pyongyang must be hiding something signifi- cant. In short, there was substantial evidence to support the conclusion that North Korea was concealing some plutonium, and plausible scenarios could be constructed to account for enough plutonium for ‘‘one or possi- bly two’’ nuclear weapons. The actual amount of plutonium acquired by North Korea before 1992, though, is unknown.
Phase 3: Plutonium programme frozen (1994–2002)
Under the terms of the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea agreed to freeze and eventually to dismantle the key facilities associated with its plutonium production programme. The IAEA placed seals on the main access points, installed monitoring devices, and stationed a small team of resident inspectors. But Pyongyang resisted any Agency activities that it believed could shed light on its past plutonium production efforts, such as the installation of IAEA monitoring equipment at nuclear waste tanks, additional sampling at the reprocessing facility or the taking of measure- ments to determine the plutonium content of the 5 MW(e) reactor’s spent fuel rods. The Agreed Framework called on the United States to help North Korea to ‘‘stabilize’’ the 8,000 spent fuel rods discharged from the 5 MW(e) reactor in May–June 1994. After their removal from the reactor, these rods had been stored in a spent fuel pond next to the reactor build- ing for over two years, during which time a considerable amount of cor- rosion had occurred. Over the course of the next few years, under IAEA monitoring, the spent fuel rods were placed in 400 stainless-steel canis- ters, each containing approximately 20 rods or fragments. 50 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD
During the nuclear freeze, the United States and its allies remained vigilant to the possibility that North Korea might seek to evade the re- strictions and continue with its nuclear efforts at clandestine facilities. In early 1998, the US intelligence community concluded that North Korea was constructing a large underground facility near Kumchang-ri, which potentially could house a secret reactor and reprocessing facility to pro- duce plutonium. US inspections in May 1999 revealed that the site was not configured to house an underground reactor and reprocessing facility, much to Washington’s embarrassment. The secret uranium enrichment programme Under the Agreed Framework, North Korea’s capacity to produce addi- tional plutonium at the Yongbyon complex was effectively frozen. As a consequence, its presumed nuclear arsenal was limited to one or two nu- clear weapons. Moreover, North Korea would eventually be required to account for its undeclared plutonium holdings and to dismantle its pluto- nium production facilities as a condition for receiving two civilian Light- Water Reactors. Unless Pyongyang decided to pay the political costs of openly reneging on the provisions of the agreement, it would be forced to give up whatever nuclear weapons capability it had acquired before 1992. To the extent that maintaining a nuclear hedge was perceived as es- sential to the survival and defence of the regime, Pyongyang thus had a strong incentive to develop an alternative means of producing nuclear material, which would allow it ostensibly to comply with the Agreed Framework while preserving a secret nuclear weapons programme. Although neither country has acknowledged the arrangement, it is widely reported that North Korea provided Pakistan with No-dong mis- siles and production technology in exchange for gas centrifuge technol- ogy and perhaps other assistance for North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, probably around 1997. There are many different kinds of centrifuge technology, but the basic principle involves rapidly spinning uranium in gaseous form (uranium hexafluoride) in tubes called rotors. The centrifugal forces inside the rotor cause a slight separation of lighter U-235 and heavier U-238 atoms and the two ‘‘streams’’ of uranium hexa- fluoride are siphoned off under separate withdrawal systems. Each centri- fuge machine is capable of a small amount of separation – measured in Separative Work Units (SWUs) – but by passing the slightly enriched stream through an interconnected series of hundreds or thousands of machines, known as a cascade, it is possible to increase the percentage of U-235 from the low level (0.7 per cent) found in nature to the higher percentages necessary for nuclear reactor fuel or nuclear weapons. It is not known exactly what kind of nuclear assistance North Korea received from Pakistan, but it is generally assumed that it could have in- NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 51 cluded technical specifications, sample centrifuge machines and training that would allow North Korea to duplicate the technology and to assemble a production-scale centrifuge facility. Certainly, by 2000, US intelligence had begun to detect North Korean attempts to procure equipment and materials that could be used in a centrifuge programme. However, the quantities were small, suggesting a research and development effort, and technical opinion was divided on whether the items were intended for use in centrifuges or for other purposes, such as in missiles. Nonethe- less, there was sufficient concern that, in March 2000, US President Clin- ton waived a legislative certification that required him to certify that ‘‘North Korea is not seeking to develop or acquire the capability to en- rich uranium’’. In 2001, a source – said to be a North Korean defector – reported that North Korea had been pursuing a centrifuge enrichment programme for several years, although the location of the production plant and related facilities were apparently not identified. Moreover, North Korea reportedly began seeking large quantities of materials and components that were uniquely associated with centrifuge production, such as high-strength aluminium tubes of specific dimensions and equip- ment suitable for uranium feed-and-withdrawal systems. Based on this information, the US intelligence community concluded in June 2002 that North Korea had embarked on an effort to build a clan- destine production-scale centrifuge facility to produce weapons-grade uranium. In November 2002, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) stated publicly that North Korea was ‘‘constructing a plant that could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for two or more nuclear weap- ons per year when fully operational – which could be as soon as mid- decade’’.1 However, the status of North Korea’s centrifuge programme, and, particularly, how close it is to completion, is very difficult to ascer- tain, given various uncertainties and Pyongyang’s attempts to conceal its activities. First, it is unclear exactly how much and what type of assis- tance Pakistan provided. Even if it supplied a full set of machines for a pilot-scale cascade, normally consisting of a few hundred machines, North Korea would need to manufacture or assemble additional ma- chines for a production-scale facility, which typically requires a few thou- sand centrifuges in order to produce enough weapons-grade uranium an- nually for a few nuclear weapons. Secondly, and more importantly, it is not known whether North Korea has been able to purchase all of the components, materials and equip- ment necessary to assemble a production-scale centrifuge plant or to what extent it is able to manufacture such items indigenously. There is at least some fragmentary evidence to suggest that North Korea is still shopping around. In April 2003, French and German authorities cooper- ated to halt a shipment of 22 tonnes of high-strength aluminium tubes, 52 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD the first instalment of a larger order for 200 tonnes of such tubes. The particular type of aluminium and the dimensions of the tubes closely match the requirements of the rotor casings for the G-2 centrifuge (which Pakistan operates). Allowing for some loss in processing, the 200 tonnes of tubes could be used to manufacture around 3,500 G-2 centrifuges, enough to produce about 75 kg of weapons-grade uranium a year or about enough for three nuclear weapons of a first-generation uranium- based implosion design, assuming 20–25 kg per weapon. Also in April 2003, Japanese authorities, working with officials in Hong Kong, thwarted a North Korean effort to obtain three inverters – electronic de- vices used to generate the direct current power necessary for the opera- tion of centrifuges (although they also have an application in missile guidance systems). Hundreds of inverters would be required for a production-scale centrifuge plant because each centrifuge machine is run by its own motor. The interception of the aluminium tubes shipment in April 2003 rein- forces the conclusion that North Korea is seeking to build a production- scale centrifuge facility, but these failures in Pyongyang’s procurement effort suggest that North Korea may still lack key components. More- over, aluminium casing tubes are only the ‘‘tip of the iceberg’’ in relation to the necessary components. Other critical components, even more diffi- cult to manufacture, include nuclear-grade maraging steel rotors and caps, rotor bearings and electrical systems. Of course, it is possible that North Korea has been able to establish a completely undetected procure- ment apparatus to obtain such items. It seems more likely, though, that North Korea is still in the process of acquiring at least some of the neces- sary items. Thirdly, the locations of North Korea’s centrifuge facility and key an- cillary facilities are unknown. Intelligence and military experts believe it is likely that North Korea would choose to build a centrifuge plant un- derground to guard against detection and military attack. However, press reports identifying possible locations for an underground centrifuge plant are mostly based on conjecture. In addition to the actual centrifuge facility itself, a North Korean ura- nium enrichment programme would also require the production of large quantities of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) feed material, the gaseous form of uranium required for centrifuges. For example, a centrifuge plant con- sisting of 3,500 G-2-style centrifuge machines would require around 13.5 tonnes of UF6 feed material per year. North Korea’s fuel fabrication fa- cility at Yongbyon was able to process large amounts of natural uranium yellowcake (U-308) into uranium dioxide (U02) and then into uranium tetrafluoride (UF4), the immediate precursor to the production of UF6. But the fluoride-processing lines at the facility are badly corroded, and NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 53
would need to be rebuilt and refitted to resume UF4 production. Of course, North Korea could decide to build a UF6 feed plant at another location. In the end, production of sufficient UF6 feed material should not be a major technical hurdle for North Korea’s enrichment pro- gramme. Finally, assuming that North Korea is able to complete a production- scale centrifuge plant, a lengthy period of testing is normally necessary before full-scale sustained production can commence. Centrifuge ma- chines are notoriously temperamental. Operating at high speeds, they can suffer catastrophic failure (known as ‘‘crashing’’) as a result of manu- facturing or operational errors, requiring that the entire line be shut down in order to replace or bypass the damaged machine. For example, any fluctuation in, or interruption to, the electrical current can prove fatal for centrifuge machines, and North Korea’s electrical system is known to be highly unreliable. In conclusion, Washington’s assessment that a production-scale centri- fuge facility could be completed by ‘‘mid-decade’’ is a ‘‘worst-case’’ esti- mate based on analytical judgements and assumptions, rather than on a wealth of factual information. TheUSestimatedrawsfromasenseof how long it would take a country of North Korea’s perceived industrial, scientific and engineering potential to complete a production-scale centri- fuge facility, assuming that it possessed the necessary technology and that it made a political decision to devote the necessary resources to it. It is possible that North Korea’s enrichment programme is even more ad- vanced than US assessments suggest, especially if it has been able, unde- tected, to obtain significant quantities of materials and equipment from foreign sources. However, it probably still faces a number of technical obstacles, which would put the estimated date of completion at the far end of ‘‘mid-decade’’ or even later. In the absence of additional informa- tion, it is impossible to make a decisive judgement either way.
Phase 4: The plutonium programme unfrozen (2002–present)
Following the revelation of North Korea’s clandestine enrichment pro- gramme and the collapse of the Agreed Framework in late 2002, North Korea disabled IAEA monitoring equipment at the 5 MW(e) reactor, the spent fuel storage pond and the reprocessing facility, expelled IAEA inspectors from the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre and took steps to revive its plutonium production programme, which had been sus- pended since 1994. In the absence of inspectors, it is very difficult to de- termine the exact status of North Korea’s plutonium production pro- gramme, although satellite photography and other forms of international monitoring do give some clues. To complicate matters, North Korean of- 54 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD
ficials have made a variety of public and private statements regarding their country’s nuclear activities since inspections ended, but these may be for political effect and they cannot be taken at face value. Whatever the uncertainty about the exact status of North Korea’s plutonium pro- duction facilities, enough is known about the technical capabilities of these facilities to produce an informed assessment of North Korea’s abil- ity to manufacture additional plutonium in the short term. Of greatest immediate importance is the fate of the nearly 8,000 irradi- ated fuel rods discharged from the 5 MW(e) reactor in 1994 and stored in an adjacent pond, near to the reprocessing facility. Although the IAEA was not allowed to measure the irradiation levels of the rods, it believes that they contain some 25–30 kg of plutonium. Notionally, this is enough for between two and five nuclear weapons, depending on the amount of plutonium lost in the reprocessing process and on the quantity required for each nuclear weapon of any North Korean design. If the spent fuel contains 25–30 kg of plutonium, the amount actually recovered from re- processing could be 17.5–27.0 kg, assuming a reprocessing loss of 10–30 per cent. Furthermore, assuming that a first-generation implosion design requires 5–8 kg of plutonium for each weapon, the separated plutonium would be enough to produce as few as two or as many as five nuclear weapons. The reprocessing facility was mothballed for nearly eight years, but some maintenance work occurred during the freeze. Most experts believe that North Korea could have restored the facility to operational status within a few months and had likely done so since the inspectors were ex- pelled in December 2002. In theory, the single completed line in the re- processing plant was seen as capable of reprocessing the 8,000 fuel rods (50 tonnes of uranium) if operations ran continuously for approximately five months, assuming no technical difficulties. In early 2003, satellite imagery detected the presence of lorries at the storage site, suggesting that the fuel rods were being removed from the area. In theory, the fuel rods could have been moved to the reprocessing facility, or potentially to some other location for processing or protection from military attack. In April 2003, North Korean diplomats told US offi- cials in private that the country had begun reprocessing, and in July they said that reprocessing was completed. In October 2003, North Korea an- nounced publicly that reprocessing of the rods had been completed suc- cessfully by the end of June and that the state was using the resulting plu- tonium to increase its ‘‘nuclear deterrent force’’. In September 2004, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Su Hon indicated that the 8,000 spent fuel rods had indeed been reprocessed and the material used to fabricate nuclear weapons. North Korea’s ability to produce fresh plutonium in the near term is limited. Since the end of the freeze, it is believed to have refuelled the 5 NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 55
MW(e) reactor at Yongbyon, and restarted it in March 2003 – a view based on the observation of steam plumes from the reactor’s cooling tower. The reactor apparently experienced some start-up problems, which is not surprising after eight years of inactivity, but such difficulties are not likely to be insurmountable. Assuming maximum power for 300 days, the reactor is capable of producing up to 7.5 kg of plutonium per year, perhaps enough for one nuclear weapon, depending on assumptions concerning reprocessing losses and the amount of plutonium required for a nuclear weapon of North Korean design. In its October 2003 statement, Pyongyang vowed to reprocess spent fuel from the 5 MW(e) reactor as it became available. In April 2005, the South Korean government stated that Pyongyang had again shut down the 5 MW(e) reactor, and on 11 May Pyongyang announced that it had extracted more spent fuel rods with the intention to ‘‘increase its nuclear arsenal’’. In the longer term, North Korea’s ability to produce much larger amounts of plutonium depends on how quickly it can complete the two larger nuclear reactors that were under construction when the nuclear freeze came into effect in 1994. Of the two, the 50 MW(e) reactor was closest to completion in 1994. At that time, North Korean officials told the IAEA and the United States that the reactor was 9–12 months from initial service. However, Pyongyang had an incentive to exaggerate the status of construction because the amount of heavy fuel oil delivered to the country under the Agreed Framework was calculated according to the time when the 50 MW(e) reactor was expected to be completed. No technical assessment of the reactor’s status in 1994 was conducted. Ac- cording to IAEA inspectors who visited the reactor throughout the period of the freeze, external work on the main reactor building was complete and the reactor pressure vessel was installed. However, the IAEA was not able to determine the status of several major pieces of equipment and components essential for completing the reactor. Since the end of the freeze in late 2002, there have been no reports of in- creased activity at the 50 MW(e) reactor suggesting that construction has resumed, although some work on essential components could be oc- curring undetected off-site. Even assuming that key components such as the fuel-loading machine and blowers are ready for installation, it would still likely take a few years to complete the reactor. Fuel fabrication, in particular, could pose a delay. Thus, assuming no major technical problems and that Pyongyang takes the political decision to complete the 50 MW(e) reactor, full power oper- ations could be under way in a few years at the earliest. Resumption of large-scale construction at the site and installation of critical equipment and components would probably be detected by satellite, giving advance warning that North Korea was seeking to finish the reactor. In the same timescale that it would take to finalize the 50 MW(e) reactor, North 56 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD
Korea could also probably expand its reprocessing capability by complet- ing the second line at its reprocessing facility at Yongbyon. This would provide surplus redundant capacity to process the normal 100 tonne an- nual spent fuel discharge from the 50 MW(e) reactor. In theory, operating at full power for 300 days a year, the 50 MW(e) reactor could produce about 55 kg of plutonium per annum, enough for about 5–10 nuclear weapons, depending on reprocessing losses and the amount of plutonium required for each weapon of North Korean design. Operating at lower power levels for shorter periods would generate cor- respondingly less plutonium. Of course, there is no way to know the actual performance capability of the 50 MW(e) reactor. Compared with the 50 MW(e) reactor, the much larger 200 MW(e) power reactor at Taechon was at an early stage of development in 1994, and has suffered from poor maintenance and exposure to the elements during the period of the Agreed Framework. As far as is known, none of the key components, graphite blocks or fuel for the reactor have been fabricated. Notionally, it could produce hundreds of kilograms of pluto- nium annually, enough for tens of nuclear weapons, but there seems little prospect that it could be completed for many years.
Nuclear weapon design and fabrication
On 9 October 2006, North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test of a plutonium-based device with an explosive yield less than 1 kilo- ton. Although the test demonstrated that North Korea has acquired a basic nuclear weapons capability, much remains unknown about the sophistication – and therefore the deliverability – of North Korea’s nu- clear arsenal. In particular, the yield of the North Korean test is at least 10 times smaller than the first tests conducted by all of the other seven declared nuclear powers, raising the possibility that the North Korean test device failed to achieve its design yield. According to diplomatic sources, Pyongyang gave Beijing advance notice of the impending test, informing Chinese officials that the test would be approximately 4 kilo- tons. It is impossible to determine from this information, however, the nature of the North Korean nuclear device. One theory is that North Korea deliberately sought to produce a low yield from a large, simple device in order to ensure that the underground explosion was contained. Another theory is that North Korea was testing a more sophisticated design capable of being delivered by missile, but a flaw resulted in reduced yield. In the absence of further information, it is impossible to determine which of these competing theories is correct and therefore how close North Korea is to fielding a nuclear weapon that is deliverable by its existing missile forces. NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 57
There is virtually no substantial information on North Korean efforts to design and manufacture nuclear weapons, although certain assump- tions can be derived from the basic principles that apply to all countries. The common assumption is that North Korea’s nuclear weapon design is based on a first-generation implosion device, the logical choice for states in the initial stage of nuclear weapon development. In a first-generation implosion device, such as the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945, a solid ball or core of fissile metal – either plutonium or high en- riched uranium (HEU) – surrounded by a metal tamper/reflector (usually natural uranium) is compressed by a spherical system of shaped high explosives, known as a lens. To produce supercriticality, a burst of neu- trons is introduced at a key instant of compression. The main technical challenge lies in creating a spherical implosion of high explosives, which requires precise fabrication of the high-explosive lens and exact timing. Failure to achieve this could result in significant loss of nuclear yield or even a dud. Another technical challenge concerns the design of the neutron generator needed to release a burst of neutrons to trigger a chain reaction in the compressed fissile core. The Nagasaki weapon had about 6 kg of plutonium in its core and produced a yield of slightly more than 22 kilotons. Overall, the weapon was some 1.5 metres in diameter and 3.6 metres long, and weighed approximately 4.9 tonnes. Over the years, the advanced nuclear weapon states have developed a number of different techniques to reduce the amount of plutonium or HEU needed to achieve a desired yield, and to decrease significantly the size and weight of implosion weapons. An alternative to an implosion design is a gun-type device in which a smaller piece of weapons-grade uranium is fired into a larger piece of weapons-grade uranium in order to create a supercritical mass. A chain reaction is initiated with the introduction of a burst of neutrons at a key moment. Unlike an implosion device, which can have either plutonium or uranium as its fissile core, a gun-type device can be built only with highly enriched uranium because the spontaneous neutrons emitted by pluto- nium are likely to cause premature criticality (that is, before the nuclear core is fully assembled), significantly reducing the overall explosive yield. Gun-type devices are generally simpler to design and construct than im- plosion devices, but they require considerably more nuclear material to achieve the same yield. Consequently, implosion designs are generally more attractive to countries with limited amounts of nuclear material. In estimating the number of nuclear weapons that North Korea might be able to produce, this study assumes that it would require 5–8 kg of weapons-grade plutonium and 20–25 kg of HEU for each implosion de- vice, which roughly corresponds to the range of fissile material used by the nuclear weapon states in their early designs. Using more advanced techniques or aiming to achieve lower yields, nuclear weapons can be 58 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD built with smaller amounts of plutonium or weapons-grade uranium. This study, though, presupposes that North Korea may not have access to such advanced techniques and therefore is more likely to pursue simpler and more reliable designs in the range of 10–20 kilotons. However, without knowing the details of North Korea’s nuclear weapon design, the actual amount of fissile material used in such a device cannot be determined. The ranges posited here cover the most likely possibilities. Since at least the mid-1980s, North Korea has conducted a series of high-explosive tests, which appear to be related to the development of an implosion system for a nuclear weapon. Prior to 1992, North Korea carried out high-explosive nuclear-related development tests at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre in a nearby stream bed. According to a KGB report of 22 February 1990, leaked to the Russian press in March 1992, the Soviet intelligence agency had already concluded that North Korea had succeeded in developing a ‘‘nuclear explosive device’’ at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Centre. The IAEA visited this test site during its various inspections of the Yongbyon establishment in 1992, but it found no evidence of nuclear materials. Later, high-explosive tests were conducted at a nearby site with more sophisticated facilities, known as Youngdoktong. According to a South Korean intelligence re- port leaked to the country’s National Assembly, satellites detected some 70 high-explosive tests at Youngdoktong. It is difficult to evaluate these North Korean tests with the information available. Whether these tests indicate that North Korea is having diffi- culty establishing a reliable system, or is seeking to improve on an exist- ing design or to develop new design types, cannot be determined from the available evidence. Given the length of time over which North Korea has apparently conducted nuclear-related high-explosive tests, its ability to manufacture shaped high-explosive charges for conventional muni- tions and the availability in the public domain of basic information on early implosion designs, the United States has believed – since the mid- 1990s – that North Korea is capable of designing and building a simple implosion-type nuclear weapon, assuming that it has sufficient stocks of plutonium or highly enriched uranium for such a device. Since North Korea has continued high-explosive testing over the past decade, the cur- rent US assessment – that North Korea has built ‘‘simple fission-type’’ nuclear weapons without nuclear testing – has become more confident. If this assessment is correct, a key uncertainty would concern the size and weight of the nuclear weapons, which determine the means of deliv- ery. Clearly, from Pyongyang’s standpoint, it would be highly desirable to develop a nuclear weapon small enough and light enough to be delivered by the missiles in its inventory, such as the No-dong, which is likely to be more survivable and effective than military aircraft. North Korea’s ability NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 59 to threaten targets beyond the Korean peninsula, such as Japan or, even- tually, the United States, would be much more credible if it was able to deliver a nuclear warhead using missiles in its inventory. In this regard, the question of Pakistani assistance is critical. According to press accounts, US intelligence believes that Pakistan may have pro- vided North Korea with nuclear weapon design information and even supplies of HEU under the missile-for-nuclear barter agreement of the late 1990s. With North Korean and Pakistani nuclear and missile person- nel apparently working closely together for several years, it is plausible that some discussion of weaponization would take place. Pakistan’s nu- clear weapon design, an implosion system utilizing HEU instead of pluto- nium, is based on an early Chinese design, and it is small and light enough to be delivered using the No-dong missile – one of the reasons Pakistan wanted to acquire the No-dong. In the worst case, if Islamabad provided North Korea with nuclear weapons design information, it would substantially assist North Korean efforts to develop nuclear weapons that could be delivered by No-dong missiles. Even without Pakistani assis- tance, North Korea may have been able to develop a warhead over the past decade that is small and light enough to be delivered using a No- dong missile, but there is insufficient information to make a confident assessment. In conclusion, the current US assessment that North Korea ‘‘has one or possibly two’’ nuclear weapons is based on analytical judgements that North Korea has sufficient fissile material and is technically capable of building a simple implosion device, without requiring a full nuclear test, and that Pyongyang has made the political decision to exercise its nuclear option. The original bases for these judgements were developed during the 1993–1994 nuclear crisis, and the judgements have become more con- fident over time. If analysts judged that NorthKoreanscientistsandtech- nicians could probably build a first-generation device in the early 1990s, it makes even more sense that they could do so a decade later. High- explosive testing has continued during that period, and Pakistani experts may have provided assistance to help North Korea develop a nuclear warhead deliverable by the No-dong missile.
Nebulous nukes
Assuming one or two nuclear weapons from plutonium separated before 1992, between two and five nuclear weapons from plutonium in North Korea’s existing spent fuel, and approximately one additional bomb’s worth annually from plutonium produced by the 5 MW(e) reactor, North Korea’s maximum nuclear arsenal is likely to be limited to 6–12 nuclear weapons over the next several years, if no new facilities to produce plu- 60 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD tonium or HEU are completed. This assessment does not include the pos- sibility that North Korea acquired additional nuclear weapons usable material from foreign sources, such as weapons-grade uranium from Pakistan. As for the enrichment project, the United States claims that a production-scale centrifuge facility that is able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for ‘‘two or more nuclear weapons per year’’ could be operational as soon as ‘‘mid-decade’’. A more conservative esti- mate is that completion of the plant could be delayed until the end of the decade, especially if interdiction efforts (several of which took place in 2003) can slow the acquisition by North Korea of foreign equipment and materials. In short, it is impossible to reach a firm conclusion about North Ko- rea’s current nuclear weapons capability. On the one hand, a plausible case can be made that North Korea has enough plutonium for a very small number of nuclear weapons, including plutonium that it may have separated before 1992 and plutonium that it may have separated since 2002, and that it is technically able to manufacture a deliverable nuclear weapon from this plutonium. On the other hand, we cannot confirm how much plutonium North Korea has and whether it is able to fabricate a de- liverable nuclear weapon from this material. From a public policy stand- point, and given the stakes involved, the case is strong enough that it would be imprudent to conclude that North Korea does not have nuclear weapons.
Chemical and biological weapons
Even greater ambiguity surrounds precise chemical and biological weap- ons capabilities. North Korea has probably produced and stockpiled chemical weapons, although the amount and types of agents that have been produced, the number and types of munitions that have been stock- piled, and the location of key research, production and storage facilities cannot be determined with high confidence. This assessment is heavily based on perceptions of North Korean capabilities and motivations. North Korea’s large – but ageing – chemical industry is capable of pro- ducing a variety of traditional chemical weapons agents, although some imported precursors may be needed for nerve agent production. North Korea’s munitions industry is capable of producing a variety of chemical weapons, such as chemical-filled artillery shells or warheads for rockets and missiles. Plausibly, Pyongyang would see the utility of chemical weapons both as a military asset for tactical battlefield use and as a stra- tegic asset to threaten civilian casualties. Arguably, the perceived value NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 61 of chemical weapons increased after the mid-1990s, when North Korea’s plutonium production was frozen and its conventional forces continued to suffer from financial restrictions. North Korea denies that it has any chemical weapons, but it has refused to join the Chemical Weapons Convention. There is general agreement that North Korea has conducted research and development on biological agents, but not enough information to conclude whether it has progressed to the level of agent production and weaponization, although North Korea is most likely technically capable of both. Compared with chemical weapons, even less is known about a possible biological weapons programme. Official US, Russian and South Korean government reports agree that North Korea has conducted re- search on a variety of biological weapons agents, including anthrax, cholera, plague and smallpox, but only official South Korean sources claim that North Korea has weaponized one or two biological agents. Official US and Russian sources characterize North Korea as capable of producing a variety of agents, without judging that North Korea has actu- ally produced biological weapons. Given the dearth of information, it is impossible to make a firm judgement either way.
Ballistic missiles
Assessments of North Korea’s deployed short- and medium-range mis- siles are more certain than estimates of its efforts to develop long-range missiles capable of attacking the United States with nuclear weapons. North Korea has produced and deployed short-range Scud B/C missiles (known in North Korea as the Hwasong-5/6), which can reach targets throughout South Korea, and medium-range No-dong missiles, which can reach targets throughout Japan. The exact size, disposition and arma- ment of these missile forces are unknown. There is no doubt that North Korea can produce a variety of single-stage, liquid-fuelled ballistic mis- siles, based on Scud technology. However, there is little public informa- tion on the location and capabilities of missile production facilities, beyond a handful of major facilities associated with research and devel- opment, assembly and flight-testing. There is also no doubt that North Korea has deployed Hwasong-5/6 and No-dong missile units, probably organized along the lines of Soviet-style launch battalions, with four to six mobile launchers per battalion. Conservatively, we estimate a de- ployed force of about 120 Hwasong-5/6 missiles and about 40 No-dong missiles, but these numbers are approximate and North Korea could deploy additional missile forces if necessary. Including missiles held in reserve, official US and South Korean reports estimate that North Ko- 62 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD rea’s overall ballistic missile inventory includes over 500 Scuds of various types and a few hundred No-dongs. A number of different underground bunkers, shelters, hide positions and tunnels thought to be associated with deployed missiles forces have been identified. As demonstrated by the August 1998 Taepo-dong-1 launch, North Korea has begun to pass technological hurdles to develop multiple-stage long-range missiles, but the status of this effort cannot be accurately de- termined, especially since North Korea has refrained from additional flight tests since 1998. On 31 August 1998, North Korea launched a three-stage Taepo-dong-1 (or Paektusan-1 as it is known in North Korea) rocket in an attempt to place a small satellite into orbit. Stage separation was successful (a No-dong first stage, Scud second stage and solid rocket motor third stage), but the third stage exploded and destroyed the satel- lite. In a ballistic missile configuration, the Taepo-dong-1 would provide little military utility beyond that offered by the No-dong, in terms of it being able to deliver a nuclear warhead to medium ranges. A more credible intercontinental range system, thought to be under development, is the Taepo-dong-2 (TD-2), which consists of a first stage of four clustered No-dong engines and a second stage of a single-stage No-dong engine. On paper, assuming maximum capabilities, the United States estimates that a two-stage TD-2 could deliver a ‘‘nuclear weapon sized’’ payload to targets in the western United States. With a solid rocket motor third stage, the TD-2 is theoretically capable of delivering a ‘‘nuclear weapon sized’’ payload anywhere in the United States, al- though accuracy would be extremely poor with known North Korean ca- pabilities. Between 1998 and 2006, the United States had estimated that theTD-2‘‘may’’bereadyfortestingatanytime.NorthKorearefrained from additional flight tests, having agreed to a moratorium on long-range missile tests in September 1999. However, in July 2006, it conducted a series of missile tests, including of a TD-2. Although that test was gener- ally judged a failure, Pyongyang will nevertheless have learnt valuable lessons from it and garnered technical data that it will be able to apply to the future development of the missile. Advances in this area will be key in rendering a North Korean deterrent capability credible and effective.
The balance of conventional forces
Over the years, the conventional military balance on the peninsula has shifted against North Korea. US and South Korean forces have modern- ized and strengthened their military capabilities, while North Korea’s forces suffer from economic deprivation, obsolete equipment, poor main- NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGIC WEAPONS PROGRAMMES 63 tenance and inadequate training. As a result, the credibility of North Ko- rea’s threat to invade South Korea using forward-deployed forces near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) has diminished. North Korea could not invade the South without inviting a fatal counterattack from the United States and South Korea, supported by Japan. At the same time, Pyongyang’s conventional forces are sufficiently strong to make an allied invasion to overthrow North Korea’s regime an extremely unattractive option. Even with outdated equipment, poor readiness and adverse living conditions, North Korean soldiers are seen as tough fighters. With its massed artillery near the DMZ, North Korea retains the ability to inflict heavy casualties and collateral damage on al- lied forces and civilians – North Korean forces may not be able to seize Seoul, but they can devastate it. In theory, US forces could carry out limited pre-emptive attacks to destroy known North Korean nuclear facilities and missile emplacements, but such an attack would be unlikely to destroy all secret facilities and hidden weapons and would risk provok- ing North Korean retaliatory action that could trigger a catastrophic war. The possibility that North Korea has acquired nuclear, chemical and bio- logical weapons makes the prospect of a general war even more difficult to contemplate. With its back against the wall, the North Korean regime might take desperate and even suicidal actions.
Implications for policy
In September 2004, and again in February 2005, North Korea stated that it had developed nuclear weapons for the purpose of self-defence. Al- though far from technically detailed, these were statements of greater clarity than the opaque and qualified hints (and denials) Pyongyang had issued on previous occasions. The international response, however, was tellingly mixed. At one extreme, it featured claims of vindication by those who had long argued that North Korea’s ostensibly civilian nuclear pro- gramme constituted an immediate military threat, warranting a tough concerted response; at the other extreme, there were expressions of grave, even dismissive, doubts by those who saw Pyongyang’s claims as characteristic swagger and bluff, aimed at extorting strategic rents from the outside world. Both of these reactions grew out of North Korea’s habit of husbanding ambiguity and imprecision as a prime strategic asset in its fraught diplomacy and of seeking to manipulate the outside world’s perceptions of its military capabilities. At times, its interest may dictate denial of capabilities that actually exist; at other times, national interest may dictate invention of capabilities that do not exist. Secrecy may be in- tended to veil weaknesses as well as to conceal strengths. For these rea- 64 GARY SAMORE AND ADAM WARD sons, and because of the problems associated with collecting intelligence in such a closed and secretive society,itisveryhardtodrawdefinitive conclusions about North Korea’s strategic weapons holdings – and there- fore Pyongyang’s overall bearing on matters of regional security. North Korea’s nuclear test of October 2006 removed any ambiguity about Pyongyang’s basic nuclear prowess, but many uncertainties remain, especially with respect to the deliverability of North Korea’s nuclear ar- senal. North Korean officials claim that the test was a complete success and boast that Pyongyang has joined the ranks of nuclear powers. Other evidence suggests that the test was at least a partial failure, which would explain the relatively low yield. Without further information, however, it is impossible to determine the extent to which the test device failed to perform and, if so, what went wrong. Therefore, we cannot be certain how close North Korea is to deploying a nuclear arsenal that could be delivered by No-dong missiles. This is inevitably a source of frustration to policy-makers, who ideally seek to fashion their diplomacy on the basis of certainty and confidence in their understanding of North Korea’s military capabilities and strategic intentions, and the interplay between them. The dangers inherent in ambiguity are significant: the more imperfect the understanding of capa- bilities, the faultier may be assessments of intentions; the bolder the assumption of intentions, the starker or more casual might be the infer- ences made about the capabilities that North Korea has or may desire. Responsible diplomacy towards Pyongyang will recognize these dangers. It will acknowledge that the manifold ambiguities, caveats and gaps in knowledge of North Korea’s capabilities – and the factors that give rise to them – are as important as established facts when calculating Pyong- yang’s current intentions and future options.
Acknowledgements
This chapter is based on the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ ‘‘Strategic Dossier’’, North Korea’s Weapons Programmes: A Net Assess- ment, January 2004.
Note
1. CIA unclassified point paper distributed to Congressional staff on 19 November 2002. 65
4 Economic security in the DPRK
Bradley O. Babson
Economic security is viewed as a critical dimension of the overall security equation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and thus an understanding of the economic dynamics at work in the North Korean situation will be fundamental for resolving the country’s security dilemmas.1 The principal argument is that any sustainable future secu- rity framework for the DPRK will need to meet the needs of all stake- holders in a mutually reinforcing way. But the transformations required to achieve such a stable state of economic security pose major challenges for both the DPRK and the international community. The combination of military-first and socialist economic policies has created a systemic crisis for the DPRK economy. It is no longer possible for the DPRK both to meet its military security objectives and to provide general economic well-being for its population of 22 million. In view of the policy choice by the DPRK’s leadership to pursue asymmetric mili- tary security in the face of a weakening economy, the DPRK has opted for continued isolation from the international community and a condition of economic insecurity for all of the principal stakeholders in the system. Although economic reforms are necessary, and partial reforms have been implemented, these cannot succeed without a more fundamental realign- ment of policy in which the military-first policy would no longer be pursued and priority would be given to overhauling the DPRK’s failed economic system by introducing market economic mechanisms and ex- panding aid, trade and investment relations with neighbouring countries and the international community more generally.
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 66 BRADLEY O. BABSON
TheDPRK’seconomicsecuritydilemma
Economic security in the DPRK context needs to be viewed from three complementary perspectives: the state, the production enterprise and the household. In the DPRK, all three of these stakeholders have been bound in a social contract grounded in mutual dependency and obliga- tions in which the state exercises totalitarian control of the economy and socialist provision of security, livelihood, basic necessities and social ser- vices to the population. Enterprises have been expected to meet produc- tion and tax quotas established through the national planning process, and households have been expected to put the interests of the state and of collective society above personal welfare. Profit maximization and in- dividual initiative were repressed, and the political philosophy of Juche, or self-reliance, was a concept that applied to the state but not to the en- terprise or household. The dilemma that emerged in the 1990s was that a combination of internal and external factors caused the social contract to fail. The DPRK state could no longer finance a military that would en- sure national security and regime survival and at the same time meet the basic human needs of the DPRK society or provide capital to enterprises to retain production viability.
Basic economic interests of the stakeholders
At the level of the state, economic security is essential to maintain regime viability and legitimacy. Economic failure threatens the ability of the regime to retain control over national security and domestic stability, whereas economic success permits the state to expand its ambitions. At the level of the production enterprise, economic security is defined by the ability to remain in business. In physical terms, this means access to labour, capital and technology; availability of public infrastructure for transport, power and communications; and access to buyers of final prod- ucts and to suppliers of raw materials and intermediate inputs. At the household level, economic security has both physical and psy- chological aspects. Physically, households require housing, food and ac- cess to education and health care. Employment and social protection are also important. In the DPRK, the state assumed responsibility for meet- ing all such household needs in exchange for nearly total control over the lives of its citizens. Freedom of choice at the household level has been perhaps the most circumscribed of any society in today’s world. Psycho- logically, human security depends critically on perceptions of insecurity.2 Understanding these perceptions in the DPRK context is important for assessing the impact of changes on household-level well-being and behaviours. Important considerations are the fears of freedom and ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 67 unknown alternatives, values of communalism, political indoctrination, and socio-economic class (songbun). Use of coercive social control practices by the state, such as intimidation and internment, are also factors affect- ing perceptions of security at the household level that have an impact on economic as well as political behaviours.
Determinants of growing economic insecurity
Economic decline and reform initiatives
The DPRK economy has been in decline since the early 1980s and expe- rienced shocks in the early 1990s that precipitated sharp contractions in both industrial and agricultural production. The consequences of this de- cline have undermined the economic security interests of all three stake- holders. Efforts to initiate economic reforms have further accentuated the breakdown of the socialist social contract. The contraction in the mid-1990s and the attainment of fragile stability by the end of the decade are illustrated in nominal gross national income (GNI), GNI per capita and the budget in Table 4.1.3 Impact on the state The scale of the contraction of the mid-1990s, which was accompanied by famine, severely challenged the state, which was forced to curtail spend- ing for national security as well as for the People’s economy, and for the first time in its history the DPRK appealed to the international commu- nity for humanitarian assistance. This admission of failure to provide for the needs of the people and acceptance of foreign aid workers contrib- uted to a perception of heightened vulnerability and a changing relation-
Table 4.1 DPRK gross national income and budget, 1990–2004 1990 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 Nominal GNI (US$ billion) 23.1 21.2 12.8 16.8 21.3 23.8 GNI per capita (US$) 1,146 992 573 757 762 914 Budget (DPRK won billion) 35.7 41.4 20.0 21.0 NA 364.0 Source: Bank of Korea, ‘‘Comparison of South and North Korean Macro- economic Indicators from 1990 to 2004’’ (in Korean), hhttp://www.bok.or.kr/ contents_admin/info_admin/main/home/bokdb/northkorea/comparison/popup01. jspi (accessed 31 January 2007); also Ministry of Unification, 2004 North Korea Outline [Buk-han-gae-yo 2004], Seoul (in Korean); and ‘‘Second Session of 11th SPA of DPRK Held’’, hhttp://www1.korea-np.co.jp/pk/202nd_issue/2004032702. htmi (accessed 31 January 2007). 68 BRADLEY O. BABSON ship between the state and the people. Since 1998, the economy has remained in fragile stability, with small but positive economic growth, propped up by foreign aid and subsidized trade with neighbouring coun- tries. Economic reform initiatives in the summer of 2002, which con- tinued in 2003, succeeded in stimulating new economic activity in firms and legalized the nascent markets that emerged from a grassroots re- sponse to the failure of the state economic apparatus in the mid-1990s. But these measures have not stimulated the supply response needed to trigger significant economic growth, and have unleashed inflationary forces in the DPRK economy that the government does not have the means to control. No budget was published for 2002 owing to the price reforms, but in 2004 a budget was published providing a new baseline for the future. The new economic dynamics at work in the DPRK are also fostering a growing inequality of incomes in the DPRK society that reflects an emerging new political economy with uncertain implications for social stability and government control over the activities of the popu- lation. The future stability of the state and the legitimacy of the Kim Jong Il regime in the eyes of its major constituents – the Workers’ Party, the military and the general population – depend on its ability to avoid the collapse of state economic institutions and provide some expanding economic benefits for all of these constituencies, even at the cost of downplaying long-standing ideological principles embedded in the Juche philosophy of self-reliance and the command economic system. Impact on enterprises For a large portion of the DPRK’s industrial sector, the ingredients of enterprise viability were severely eroded during the 1980s and 1990s, making the enterprise sector highly vulnerable to the trade shock that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. The depen- dence of enterprises on the state in the centrally planned economic system, where the central plan ceased to be a meaningful production management tool in the mid-1980s, contributed to this vulnerability. En- terprises were increasingly unable to adjust to a changing environment, and reliance on central directives left them dangling throughout the 1990s when price signals had no place in economic adjustment and the reallocation of resources. As a result, there has been a large erosion of capital stock, and firms have had very limited access to the finance and technology they need to remain viable. Industrial enterprises thus had a hard time in the 1990s, with negative growth rates in the industrial sector through most of the decade and only modest improvements since 1998, according to Bank of Korea estimates. Also, fundamental principles of enterprise performance such as profitability and return on investment, ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 69 which are the bedrock of capitalist economies, were absent from the com- munist system through the economic crisis of the 1990s, but they are be- ginning to be reflected in a transition towards the adoption of market mechanisms in DPRK economic management, notably in the enterprise management and fiscal policy reforms introduced in 2002. The guiding hand of the Workers’ Party in enterprise management decision-making is also giving way to more autonomy for business decisions by enterprise managers. However, the absence of a business-friendly legal system, an undeveloped banking system, restrictions on hiring and firing workers, distortions in pricing policies, and continued state ownership of assets (especially land) mean that the ability of firms to pursue business viability remains highly insecure. In agriculture, food production dropped dramatically following the trade shock of the early 1990s.4 Since then, farming enterprises have fared somewhat better than industrial enterprises. The food crisis of the mid-1990s both triggered an inflow of external resources to the agricul- tural production system in the DPRK and stimulated a rise in farmers’ markets as the government acquiesced to their role in mitigating the im- pact of the food crisis on urban households suffering from a breakdown in the public distribution system and relieving pressures on agricultural enterprises to increase productivity. Nevertheless, farming enterprises in the DPRK continue to suffer from lack of access to basic inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides and farming machinery, as well as from serious faults in the distribution system. Availability of agricultural inputs is bet- ter for state-run farms than for cooperatives and thus state-run farms tend to have higher productivity. Cooperatives, on the other hand, have more independence at the local level, and are more flexible in providing incentives to farmers to increase production. The recent changes in agri- cultural management policies in the DPRK are supportive of the trend towards more local decision-making autonomy and acceptance of private incentives in the market economy for agriculture. Although food produc- tion has improved in recent years, agriculture in the DPRK remains vul- nerable to natural disasters, such as the floods of July 2006. Impact on households Household security in the DPRK was shattered by the events of the 1990s. The food crisis and accompanying failure of the public distribution system to provide essential nutrition to large segments of the population triggered the famine of the mid-1990s and undermined the longstanding social contract between the North Korean state and its population. A major consequence was the need for households to take initiatives to meet their basic living requirements and not rely solely on the state or 70 BRADLEY O. BABSON employers for support. This led to migration from the wage-based urban centres, where the failure of the public distribution system took the greatest toll, and to the growth of informal markets that emerged as a grassroots response to dire human need. This was accompanied by grow- ing hoarding by farming households of food for personal use and sale through the farmers’ markets. Because prices in the informal markets were much higher than state-determined wages for the urban population, another development was the emergence of private income-producing ac- tivities, asset-stripping from production enterprises, and other forms of stealing from the state. Although the estimates of the number of people who died during this period vary widely, it is generally accepted that the food crisis of the 1990s led to large loss of human life among vulnerable segments of the population and fundamentally altered perceptions of household insecu- rity in North Korean society. The national nutrition survey conducted by the World Food Programme and the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) in 1998 confirmed high levels of wasting and stunting among North Korean youth, indicating that food deprivation was not just a re- cent phenomenon, but that household food security had been eroding for many years in parallel with the weakening of the production economy as a whole. The economic reforms of 2002 were a recognition by the state that household economic security had eroded to the point where fundamental changes in the economic management system are required in the DPRK. The wage and price reforms introduced at that time were intended to give a boost to households’ purchasing power, but this has now been eroded by inflation, which has resulted from the lack of a supply response to the reforms and the fact that an infusion of external resources is needed to rejuvenate the DPRK economy. The legalization of markets in 2003 also reflects recognition by the state of the reality that markets are now satisfying basic consumption needs for a significant segment of the population not well served by the public distribution system, and that markets and individual initiative now are indispensable to a viable North Korean socio-economic organization. One consequence of the combination of growing flexibility of labour practices and expanding reliance on markets has been growing income inequality within North Korean society. The new groups of economic losers and winners reflect a shift in the political economy and social dif- ferentiation that is not necessarily aligned with the traditional songbun stratification framework. The implications of this development for the in- ternal political dynamics of the DPRK are uncertain, but represent a sig- nificant challenge for the leadership and the Workers’ Party. ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 71
National defence drain on resources
The DPRK’s military-first policy and military-related economy draw re- sources away from the People’s economy that otherwise would be used for investment in industrial and agricultural production and social ser- vices.5 The interests of regime survival and national defence have exacted a high price in household sacrifices, low levels of consumption and increasing insecurity of vulnerable groups, especially the young, old and ill. This drain on national resources is also a major contributor to the DPRK’s economic insecurity at the state level. The impact of the sharp contraction of the DPRK economy in the 1990s was amplified by the need to devote a larger share of the remaining budget pie to military expenditures and non-productive state overheads. The expenditure figures in Table 4.2 illustrate not only the scale of the contraction experienced in the DPRK in the second half of the 1990s – about 50 per cent for the budget as a whole, and about two-thirds for productive activities in the People’s economy – but also the redistribution of about 28 per cent of the available budget from productive to non- productive activities. In addition to these resource allocation trends, the policy choices that the state-directed economic planners have made over the years have re- sulted in a highly inefficient use of the resources that are available to the DPRK. The concentration on uncompetitive heavy industries and pricing policies that have not reflected economic costs are the major reasons for this high degree of distortion. National defence has paid a price for these policies in not being able to benefit from a more dynamic People’s econ- omy. In addition, the DPRK decided to develop its own military indus- tries for military equipment and materials, the development of domestic
Table 4.2 Estimated budget expenditure, 1994 and 2004 1994 2000 Won billion % Won billion %
Military expenses 48.1 11.6 30.0 14.3 People’s economy expenses 281.0 67.8 84.0 40.1 People’s policy expenses 78.7 19.0 80.1 38.2 Management expenses 6.6 1.6 15.5 7.4 Total 414.4 100.0 209.6 100.0
Source: Myoung-chul Cho, ‘‘Current Status of the North Korean Economy’’, in Choong Yong Ahn (ed.), North Korea Development Report 2002/03,Seoul:Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, 2003, p. 42. 72 BRADLEY O. BABSON research and development capacity, the construction of underground de- fence facilities, the establishment of a wartime transition system, and the reservation of strategic goods. As a result, military industrial production amounted to about 30 per cent of national production in the early 1990s, which compares with about 8 per cent in the Soviet Union.6 The combi- nation of high resource allocation and inefficiency of both the People’s economy and the military economy have added significantly to the DPRK’s economic vulnerability, at the level of both the state and pro- duction enterprise. The economic reforms introduced in 2002, under which more enter- prises were given greater decision-making flexibility and prices were raised closer to market-determined levels, were taken to improve the ef- ficiency of the DPRK economic system. These steps were positive but partial. Further liberalization in price-setting mechanisms will be needed for the efficiency gains to be realized on any significant scale and for im- provements to be seen in resource allocation throughout the economy. Furthermore, industrial policy will need to be shaped by a different understanding of comparative advantage, especially in pursuing a policy of expanded international trade. Retaining a large military-industrial com- plex will act as a drag on the ability of the DPRK to adapt its economy to a more market-oriented system. Thus there is a trade-off between the DPRK’s commitment to an inefficient military-first industrial policy and its economic security needs. In this policy environment, the DPRK is vulnerable to erosion of both its defence capabilities and its economic capabilities.
Energy vulnerabilities
The impact of price distortion in the DPRK economy and the legacy of Japanese occupation are most evident in the DPRK’s energy depen- dency. The economic system relied on energy-intensive heavy industry (chemical and metal), electrified rail for transport, and heavy use of energy-intensive fertilizers and pumped irrigation water for agricultural production. This energy-intensive economic structure was based on coal for 70 per cent of consumption in 1990, petroleum for 10 per cent, hydro- power for 16 per cent and other sources for 4 per cent.7 Whereas refined petroleum is a strategically important energy resource for defence, its ci- vilian use was curtailed because of a desire to rely primarily on domestic energy supplies for the People’s economy. This made the energy security of the DPRK vulnerable both to curtailment of externally supplied petro- leum resources and to a breakdown in coal mining, both of which oc- curred in the 1990s. Coal production declined from 33,100 tons in 1990 to a low of 18,600 tons in 1998 before starting a modest recovery. Crude ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 73 oil imports dropped from 2,500 tons in 1990 to 504 tons in 1998 and fell even further to 314 tons in 1999. Both national defence and the DPRK’s People’s economy were threat- ened by these developments. Lack of transport and an unreliable power supply accelerated the production declines of both industrial production enterprises and agricultural cooperatives, and heightened the vulnerabil- ity of households to illness and food shortages, exacerbating social im- pacts particularly in urban areas. From a defence standpoint, the DPRK’s ability to move large numbers of troops and equipment and to re-supply them if a conflict were to erupt is also constrained by low refined petro- leum supplies. This has been reflected in its forward deployment of artil- lery tubes directed towards Seoul. In addition to issues related to the supply of energy for the DPRK economy, there are also problems related to the distribution system. Because of national defence concerns, the electrical distribution system in the DPRK is largely underground and highly inefficient. As a result, power instability and losses owing to degradation of the grid have be- come major additional constraints on the energy sector that will require large-scale investment to resolve. Any future investment planning for upgrading the electrical grid will have to resolve the tension between national defence considerations concerning the vulnerability of such infrastructure to attack and economically efficient investment.
The international response to the food crisis
It has been estimated that the international community provided a cumu- lative total of US$2.19 billion in humanitarian assistance to the DPRK from 1995 to 2004 in response to the food crisis.8 Of this, US$1.38 billion was provided through the UN-led Consolidated Appeal and the remain- der bilaterally, largely from the Republic of Korea (ROK) and China. Food aid accounted for 90 per cent of the assistance, while health and clean water assistance comprised most of the remainder. Although UN agencies such as the World Food Programme (WFP) and Unicef were the primary conduits of this assistance, the international non- governmental (NGO) community also played an important role. From the perspective of household security, the international response to the DPRK food crisis was important, both in bringing relief to large numbers of households at risk of starvation or severe malnutrition, and in communicating to the isolated North Korean people the desire of the international community to be connected and its willingness to extend a helping hand. Thus the psychological impact was at least as important as the health and economic impacts. 74 BRADLEY O. BABSON
From the perspective of the state, the food aid received from the inter- national community was an acknowledgement of the failure of the gov- ernment to provide for the basic needs of its citizens, although this was rationalized by placing blame for the crisis on bad weather and US eco- nomic sanctions, rather than on the failures of the DPRK economic sys- tem and its vulnerability to the trade shock that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. By allowing foreign humanitarian aid workers to oper- ate within the country and supervise the distribution of the assistance, the DPRK government also increased the risk of exposing the North Korean population to the human face of international goodwill and the realities of the outside world of which the population has been broadly ignorant. Thus the cost to the state of requesting international food aid and allow- ing access by foreigners to large parts of the country was significant, and this indicates that in the mid-1990s economic security interests trumped military interests in the overall calculations of the leadership. This is not to say, however, that the state was only a loser in the deci- sion to seek international food aid. Because this was channelled top down through government-controlled distribution, the delivery of food aid indirectly strengthened the regime and its capabilities to meet the needs of the North Korean people and thus reinforced its legitimacy in the eyes of the domestic population. It also permitted the government to divert other sources of food, both domestically produced and imported bilaterally from China, to military and e´lite households that were not a high priority for the WFP and NGO donors. Thus it can be argued that the international food aid response to the crisis of the 1990s permitted re- gime survival and perpetuated essential defence and governance capabil- ities. Denial of food aid would have increased the risk of regime collapse and social upheaval, which was not an outcome desired by the DPRK’s neighbours, given the potential destabilizing impacts on national defence policy and cross-border refugee flows. The fact that the DPRK has a structural food deficit of about 1 million tons of grain equivalent a year has now been well established by assess- ments carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. As a consequence, the DPRK has not been able to re- move itself from the international food aid rolls. After 10 years, aid fa- tigue and the increased willingness of some donors (e.g. Japan) to attach political strings to humanitarian assistance have changed the character of the international response to the DPRK’s chronic food deficit. Both do- nors and the DPRK government realize that investment in agricultural rehabilitation and economic growth based on expanded foreign invest- ment and trade will be needed for the DPRK to achieve sustainable food security. For the DPRK, food self-sufficiency based on domestic production alone is not a realistic objective. This realization underlies ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 75 the decision of the DPRK to change course and cancel the UN Common Appeal process for 2005 and also to press for a shift from humanitarian aid to development assistance in relations with donors.
The myth of Juche and foreign economic dependence
The philosophy of Juche was shaped by an ideology of nationalism and a historical Korean fear of foreign domination. As an instrument for domestic political socialization and a rationale for foreign policy, it has played an important role in shaping national identity and isolationist po- sitioning in the international community. In reality, however, the DPRK has been a dependent state from its inception, relying on Russian and Chinese political and economic support for decades. The external subsi- dies provided through counter-trade with the former Soviet Union and friendship prices extended by China sustained an economy that lost its lustre in the 1970s, and economic dependence gradually increased throughout the 1980s. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992 and the subsequent decision by China to extend official recognition to the ROK in early 1993 and harden the terms of trade with the DPRK were devas- tating blows to the DPRK’s national security because both its economic and political support systems were transformed within a matter of months. The ensuing economic crisis, which was amplified by the natural disasters that deepened the food crisis, underscored the DPRK’s inability to pursue a policy of Juche without risk of internal collapse. The deci- sions to reach accommodation with the United States on the parallel nu- clear crisis of 1993/1994 and to reach out to the international community for humanitarian assistance in 1996 were implicit recognition that foreign energy and food assistance were critical ingredients of national survival. The loss of subsidized aid and trade from the former Soviet Union and their reduction by China were at least in part offset by the successful strategy of negotiating new foreign assistance relationships. This transformation of the DPRK’s external economic dependency was fragile and unsustainable. Humanitarian aid could not overcome the DPRK’s structural economic problems, and aid fatigue coupled with competing claims from other countries in distress inevitably led to a weakening of commitment to providing international emergency food as- sistance indefinitely. The second nuclear crisis, which erupted in October 2002, led to the curtailment of heavy fuel oil shipments from the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, thus effectively eliminat- ing the DPRK’s economic support achieved by the Agreed Framework negotiated with the United States in 1994. Although China and the ROK have bilaterally offset the impact on the DPRK economy from 76 BRADLEY O. BABSON these developments since 2002, the reality is that the DPRK has contin- ued to rely on external aid and a growing trade deficit with China and the ROK to maintain the fragile stabilization and modest improvements in its economy since 1998. The dilemma for the DPRK leadership is that an economically secure future will require an outward-oriented economic development strategy, which will mean expanding aid, trade and invest- ment with foreign countries and accepting that Juche in the economic sphere is a failed basis for national security policy.
Factors to be considered in a new economic security framework
Any future economic security strategy for the DPRK will need to address the issues at all three levels of the state, production enterprise and house- hold discussed in this chapter in an integrated way. The main lesson of international engagement with the DPRK in the past decade is that such a comprehensive approach has been missing. The technical as well as the political challenges for a strategy of transformation are difficult but man- ageable. What is needed is a choice by the DPRK to work collaboratively with the international community to go down the transformation path, and a choice by the international community to help the DPRK succeed in the realignment process.
Military-first policy and force structure
The DPRK’s reliance on both a large conventional military force and active programmes for weapons of mass destruction to advance its na- tional defence interests and its weak economy and failing economic man- agement system are the fundamental features of its strategic conundrum. Faced with a declining budget and a weakened ability to maintain and equip a large conventional military force to deter massively better funded and equipped ROK and US forces on the Korean peninsula, the DPRK has relied on maintaining a strike capability that threatens Seoul and is not dependent on transfers of personnel or materiel and thus vulnerable to pre-emptive attack. In addition, theDPRK’sstrategyofpursuingpro- grammes for weapons of mass destruction, including both the nuclear and missile programmes, reveals its reliance on posing a credible strategic threat to Japan and potentially to the United States in order to achieve its national security goals. The dilemma faced by the DPRK is that its military-first policy and re- liance on asymmetrical force perpetuate its economic isolation and vul- nerability to economic collapse or at least continuing breakdown in the ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 77 institutions of economic control. Ultimately, the DPRK leadership will need to resolve this dilemma either by obtaining a sufficient volume of foreign assistance to allow it to pursue its present military-first policy while improving the People’s economy, or by accepting a security guar- antee that will enable the DPRK to pursue economic development with significant military demobilization. The first option, however, would not assure sustainable economic security, because reliance on foreign assis- tance is vulnerable to policy shifts by the providers, in particular China and the ROK. The decisions made between 2002 and 2006 to renounce membership in the International Atomic Energy Agency, to declare itself a nuclear weapons state, to reinstate missile launches and to threaten a nuclear test have reinforced international determination to contain the DPRK’s programmes of weapons of mass destruction and to broaden fi- nancial and economic sanctions. These developments amplify the severity of the choice faced by the DPRK leadership in resolving the dilemma of the incompatibility of its military-first policy and security of the DPRK economy.
The impact of inter-Korean reconciliation
The North–South Joint Declaration signed by ROK President Kim Dae Jung and the DPRK Defence Chairman Kim Jong Il on 15 June 2000 set a new stage for inter-Korean relations. Inter-Korean economic coopera- tion has grown significantly since this time, both in trade and in joint projects. The ROK is the DPRK’s second-largest trading partner after China (replacing Japan), and inter-Korean reconciliation policies pur- sued under both the Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun governments have dramatically reduced tensions between the two Koreas and threat perceptions, despite continued deployment of conventional forces on both sides of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The progress made in building cross-border rail and transport links in both the western and eastern regions of the Korean peninsula is changing the conventional military defence equation for both sides. With the use of these transport corridors now authorized for tourist travel to the Mount Kumgang resort in the east and the Kaesong Industrial Complex project in the west, and with the agreement to transport food aid from the ROK to the DPRK overland rather than by sea, these developments point to economic inter- ests trumping conventional military deterrence considerations in the pur- suit of enhanced security for both countries. The implications of the Kaesong initiative for the DPRK’s economic security interests are substantial. At the state level, there is the prospect of an infusion of investment and foreign exchange earnings based on commercially viable and internationally acceptable economic activities. 78 BRADLEY O. BABSON
At the enterprise level, there is the prospect of an infusion of new tech- nology, management skills and profitability. At the household level, there is the prospect of employment in economically productive jobs at high wages (by North Korean standards) and the opportunity to acquire new skills and knowledge. The tangible economic benefits that the DPRK is receiving and that will grow as the Kaesong Industrial Complex takes root and expands have the potential to drive a deepening and broadening of these types of cooperative economic activity in other areas of the country as well.
Outward orientation for economic development
The DPRK should adopt an economic development policy that follows that of the ROK and Japan. Rather than pursue an isolationist path, the DPRK should aim significantly to increase the role of trade and foreign investment and to generate exports to foreign markets, which will pro- vide a long-term source of economic growth. This means accepting both the domestic implications of a transition to a market economic system and the implications for foreign relations of joining the international eco- nomic community and abiding by global rules and norms that will come from membership in the International Monetary Fund and eventually the World Trade Organization. Closer to home, the DPRK should adopt strategies to expand its existing trade and investment relations with China, Japan and the ROK, recognizing that the regional markets pro- vide an important opportunity for integrating economic growth and in- creased security goals through growing economic interdependence. The international community should support this policy through actions that would assist the DPRK to join international economic organizations and to build up the institutions and policy management capacity needed to develop market economic mechanisms and new economic management practices.
Economic system transformation and a new political economy
System change is already under way in the DPRK and the main question for the future is how to direct and manage the transformation process so that the outcomes for the state, enterprises and households are aligned with their long-term economic security interests. This will require a com- bination of policy reforms, institution-building and investment interacting synergistically to produce the desired outcomes. The role of foreign investment and development assistance will need to be balanced with incentives for mobilizing domestic resources for both public and private investment and the creation of an environment that stimulates entrepre- ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 79 neurship and creative thinking, while preserving North Korean culture and modalities of economic cooperation that are successful in achieving social as well as economic benefits for stakeholders. A strategy debate is needed to form consensus on the essential ingredients and sequencing of economic system change in the DPRK. This debate must occur domesti- cally with all three stakeholder perspectives represented. Foreign experi- ence and advice will be important inputs to this debate, but should be managed in a way that encourages the shaping of a domestic consensus and ownership. The education and learning agenda for foreign engage- ment should be an early high priority. The emergence of a new political economy is also inevitable and is al- ready under way. The future evolution of domestic political institutions and the way they interact with the foreign community will be significantly influenced by how the issues of economic system change are handled, both by the DPRK authorities and by the foreign community. In this con- text, international concern about human rights is a factor that cannot be ignored. In the economic area, this will be reflected in the focus of inter- national donors on a pro-poor economic development strategy, priority given to social protection and strengthening the education and health sys- tems, and advocacy of good governance principles. It is inevitable that donors will pursue these values both in the advice they give and in the conditions they attach to development assistance. Managing the policy dialogue on an evolving agenda will be a challenge both for the DPRK and for the donors. A good aid coordination system will be needed to underpin this dialogue process and its linkage to the mobilization and use of external capital for the DPRK’s economic development.
Energy security
Because of its centrality to both the economic security and national de- fence agendas, the energy sector has an unusually prominent place in policy planning for engagement with the DPRK. Beyond the issues relat- ing to fuel supply mix and the financing of rehabilitation and new con- struction projects for electrical power, refined petroleum and fertilizer production, any future energy security strategy will need to address ques- tions about the availability, stability and pricing of power in the economy and their implications for production enterprises and households.
Food security
A coherent strategy to address the DPRK’s food security needs should be three pronged. The first prong should be a national agriculture devel- opment programme that aims to build a sustainable agricultural produc- 80 BRADLEY O. BABSON tion system for the DPRK that is integrated with an economic reform and restructuring strategy. This includes increasing access to finance and tech- nologies and changes in the incentives environment for both agricultural enterprises and farming households. The second prong is an import pol- icy for food and agricultural inputs built on an export-based industrial de- velopment strategy. The third is a plan for removing infrastructural and other bottlenecks that affect the distribution of food within the DPRK and steps to expand the role of market mechanisms in meeting household food security needs.
Redeployment of military assets
Eventually the tasks of military demobilization and redeployment of manpower and industrial assets will need to be integrated with an eco- nomic reform and development framework. Ideally, a transformative pol- icyembracedbyboththeDPRKanditsprimary international partners would seek a smooth transition leading to more a efficient use of re- sources by production enterprises in the industrial sector and absorption of military manpower in economically productive activities that would benefit the economic interests of both the state and households. Such a coordinated effort would require the integration of security planning with economic planning. Coordination mechanisms would be needed, both internally in the DPRK government and externally in a multilateral dialogue and support framework. A logical economic framework for managing a planned military redeployment would be the phased expan- sion of the Kaesong Industrial Zone, which is located in a particularly sensitive area on the western side of the DMZ, and possibly future similar industrial zones on the east coast in the Mount Kumgang area and Wonson.
Conclusions
Economic security is an essential dimension of the overall future security equation for the DPRK. The interaction of the national defence interests of the DPRK regime and the economic security interests of the state, production enterprises and households needs to be understood if a work- able and sustainable solution is to be found for the DPRK’s current secu- rity dilemmas. The domestic policy choices that the DPRK government has made in recent years are partial recognition of the need to make major changes in the economic system, which has failed to deliver pros- perity to North Korean society. The engagement initiatives of the inter- national community also are recognition of the difficult challenges that ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE DPRK 81 the DPRK faces, and are important signals of the willingness of the inter- national community to find peaceful solutions to these challenges. But the linkages of economic to national defence policies require a more comprehensive approach by both the DPRK and its international inter- locutors. Developing a vision and building consensus on ways to help that vision become a reality are essential steps to establishing the trust and political will for the DPRK and the international community to make the choice to walk down a transformative road together.
Notes
1. In addition to the work cited in the following notes, this chapter draws on the following sources: Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, ‘‘Can North Korea Be Engaged?’’, Survival: The IISS Quarterly, Vol. 46, No. 2, 2004; L. Gordon Flake and Scott Snyder, Paved with Good Intentions: The NGO Experience in North Korea, Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 2003; Vladimir I. Ivanov, ‘‘North Korea, the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Or- ganization, and Russia’’, International Workshop on Energy Security and Sustainable Development in Northeast Asia: Prospects for Cooperative Policies, Seoul: Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia and Korea Energy Economics Institute, 2002; Vla- dimir I. Ivanov, ‘‘Energy Security for a New Northeast Asia: An Update, ERINA Report 59’’, Niigata: Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia, 2004; Kwan Ho Kim, ‘‘Options for Rehabilitation of Energy System and Energy Security and Energy Planning in the DPR of Korea’’, Asian Energy Security Workshop, Beijing: Nautilus Institute, 2004; Yoon Hyung Kim and Chang Jae Lee (eds), Strengthening Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia, Seoul: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, 2004; Hazel Smith, Overcoming Humanitarian Dilemmas in the DPRK, Special Report No. 90, Wash- ington DC: United States Institute of Peace, July 2002. 2. Erich Weingartner, ‘‘Perceptions of Human Insecurity: Assessing Threat and Hope in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, CCHS Human Security Fellowship Research Paper, Vancouver: Canadian Consortium on Human Security, 2004. 3. Deok Ryong Yoon and Bradley Babson, ‘‘Understanding North Korea’s Economic Crisis’’, Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 1, No. 3, 2002. 4. Heather Smith and Yiping Huang, ‘‘Achieving Food Security in North Korea’’, paper prepared for Ladau Network/Centro di Cultura Scientifica A. Volta (LNCV) conference, Korean Peninsula: Enhancing Stability and International Dialogue, Rome, 19 November 2001, available at hhttp://www.mi.infn.it/~landnet/corea/proc/039.pdfi (accessed 31 Janu- ary 2007). 5. Yoon and Babson, ‘‘Understanding North Korea’s Economic Crisis’’. 6. Chul-whan Kim, ‘‘The Defense Industry’’, in Choong Yong Ahn (ed.), North Korea: De- velopment Report 2002/03, Seoul: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, 2003, p. 139. 7. Mysong Nam Kim, ‘‘Energy Sector and Energy Policy’’, in Ahn (ed.), North Korea: De- velopment Report 2002/03, p. 167. 8. Yonhap News, 15 November 2004. 82
5 Food security: The case for multisectoral and multilateral cooperation
Hazel Smith
In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), more commonly known as North Korea, there is a general consensus between the govern- ment and its partners in the international humanitarian and development community that sustainable food security will not be obtained through the reinvigoration of agricultural production alone. Export capacity will have to be rebuilt so that the country can afford to buy food from abroad. This consensus underpins the government’s and the international com- munity’s joint planning to alleviate food insecurity. Food security can best be understood in two ways: (i) as aggregate na- tional food availability and (ii) as food accessibility by different social groups. In this chapter I show that, although food availability strategies have been jointly developed, the crucial issue of food accessibility has not been addressed by the government. International agencies provided humanitarian aid to those deemed most food insecure. They did not how- ever demand of the government a medium- or long-term strategy to deal with the problem of lack of access to food by specific social groups and individuals. The chapter starts by reviewing the data on food security and agricul- ture. I then investigate how the concept of food security was understood by the DPRK government and the United Nations agencies working in the country. After discussing the causes and condition of food insecurity in the DPRK, I review the government’s responses to the food and economic crisis of the mid-1990s, and comment on continuing challenges in terms of food availability and food accessibility. The DPRK govern-
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 FOOD SECURITY 83 ment’s 2004 policy reorientation towards the international community, seeking development cooperation instead of humanitarian assistance, is then evaluated. The chapter proposes a set of recommendations designed to offer a multisectoral approach to reconstituting sustainable food secu- rity in the DPRK. In conclusion, I suggest that future multilateral coop- eration in the context of food security should be based overtly on twin policy goals aiming for both aggregate food availability and equitable access.
Data
Questions as to the reliability, accuracy and veracity of data have fre- quently been a source of controversy in scholarly and policy studies of DPRK economics, society and policy.1 These arose from the historically closed nature of the DPRK government and society. From the mid-1990s onwards, however, although difficulties continued to exist, a relatively large amount of reliable data became available on the DPRK economy and society, with the most transparent sector being agriculture.2 The availability of reliable data and well-founded analysis was the result of over a decade of cooperation between the DPRK government and the in- ternational community in the areas of agriculture and food security. The government worked closely with international organizations, particularly the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Interna- tional Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD); bilaterally, for ex- ample with the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, and more recently with the South Korean government; and with non-governmental organizations (NGOs), for instance CARITAS-Hong Kong and Con- cern.3 Much of this now enormous collection of information, some of which resulted in detailed reports from agronomists and other technical experts, is publicly available on the website run by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, ReliefWeb.4 The first significant and still important data set and analysis in this sector was the product of cooperation between the government and the UNDP. It can be found in the documentation drawn up jointly by the DPRK government and the UNDP for the roundtable conferences in 1998 and 2000 on the Agriculture Recovery and Environmental Protec- tion (AREP) plan.5 Until late 2004, when the government prevented the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) from carrying out field assessments, regular updating on agricultural produc- tion and food supply and demand figures and analysis appeared publicly in the (at least) annual FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply assessments by the FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP).6 The eight-page sec- 84 HAZEL SMITH tion of the 2002 UN Common Country Assessment on food security in the DPRK was based on a synthesis of the above information.7 It repre- sented the consensus across the UN system on the causes and possible solutions to food insecurity in the DPRK. Further data on the demand side of the food security equation can be found in the 1998, 2002 and 2004 nutrition surveys and assessments undertaken jointly by the govern- ment with the major multilateral organizations cooperating with the DPRK, that is the WFP, Unicef and the European Union.8 These surveys produced valuable quantitative data on the nutritional status of women and children under seven years of age. Some criticisms have been made of the FAO data and analysis, largely in respect of the alleged potential overestimation by the FAO of DPRK cereal demand. The FAO is charged with having underestimated the amount of pulses in the historical diet of North Koreans and therefore of having overestimated the demand for rice and maize.9 There is little disagreement, however, that the DPRK remains a country with continu- ing substantial food deficits that will require considerable support from external assistance if it is to meet the minimum food requirements for all the population. Data and analysis of food security and agriculture are therefore rela- tively profuse and relatively uncontroversial, unlike for instance the situ- ation with respect to food aid distribution. In food aid, a regular dialogue between the DPRK government and the international organizations as to the transparency of food delivery monitoring and the reliability of food aid distribution data continued for a decade until the DPRK government announced that it no longer required humanitarian assistance in 2005. In summary, there was more or less a consensus between the DPRK gov- ernment and external actors, and among those external actors, that suffi- cient information of reliable quality was available such as to enable meaningful and, importantly, shared analysis of basic problems and diffi- culties in agriculture and food security.
Concepts and analytical framework
The shared agreement between the DPRK government and the various resident agencies of the UN system about what constitutes food security and food insecurity was outlined in the DPRK UN Common Country Assessment (CCA) published in February 2003.10 This joint analysis evolved in cooperation with the DPRK government at steering group and working committee level. It can thus be considered representative of both DPRK and UN understandings of the concepts, condition and FOOD SECURITY 85 causes of food insecurity in the DPRK. The CCA adopted the 1996 World Food Summit definition of food security:
Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and eco- nomic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.11
The CCA also made explicit the idea of food insecurity as:
A situation that exists when people lack secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and healthy life. It may be caused by the unavailability of food, insufficient purchas- ing power, inappropriate distribution, or inadequate use of food at the house- hold level.12
The CCA recognized that some individuals could be particularly vul- nerable to food insecurity because of a lack of coping mechanisms, most specifically because of socio-economic factors. The understandings of food security delineated in the UN Common Country Assessment follow conventional development policy conceptual- izations. The CCA also very conventionally disaggregates the condition of food security into three distinct constituent units. These are: national food availability; food accessibility to social groups and individuals; and household and social group vulnerability. The humanitarian agencies and the DPRK government used the prev- alence of malnutrition in the population as a key indicator of food insecu- rity. All parties recognized that bald malnutrition indicators tell only part of the story of vulnerability or lack of access to adequate and sufficient food.13 Malnutrition is a symptom of a lack of sufficient and adequate food, but it is always compounded by non-food-related causes, including inadequate and unsafe drinking water, poor medical services, lack of heating in winter and physical exhaustion. This chapter proceeds by using an analytical framework based on the joint self-understanding developed by the DPRK government and UN agencies in the CCA as to what constitutes food security and food insecu- rity. Food security is analysed at national aggregate level (availability) and at social group level (accessibility and vulnerability). Analysis of the accessibility and utilization of food at the household level is largely omit- ted from this analysis, however, because there are insufficient reliable data on household food utilization in the DPRK. Discussion of relative vulnerability to food insecurity in this chapter follows the practice of the DPRK and the humanitarian agencies in that vulnerability is assessed mainly through reference to malnutrition indicators. 86 HAZEL SMITH
Food insecurity in the DPRK: The problems
The causes of the current food insecurity in the DPRK are well docu- mented and well known.14 The rapid ending of preferential trading links with the former communist countries at the end of the Cold War in 1989 brought an end to concessional oil, chemical and technology imports as well as to the limited markets available for DPRK exports. Lack of ade- quate hard currency reserves and a history of failures to achieve debt re- scheduling on loans taken out in the 1970s meant that the DPRK could not borrow money on commercial or concessional terms from the West. Agricultural production in the DPRK is input intensive, requiring chem- icals, fertilizers, electricity for irrigation and other agro-industrial inputs. Lack of the necessary imports to fuel the DPRK’s agro-industries, com- bined with the consequences of natural disasters in 1994 and 1995 that flooded coal-mines (necessary in the DPRK for electricity production) and destroyed food stocks (by some accounts most of which were stored underground and consequently destroyed by heavy and intense flooding) and crops, and with four or five years of secular decline in the economy, including in agricultural production, brought disaster to the DPRK. Crudely speaking, annual cereal requirements to feed the DPRK pop- ulation at a minimum level of existence (the FAO guideline is 167 kg per person per year), to provide basic levels of animal feed and to provide enough seed for replanting are around 5 million tonnes. Figure 5.1 in-
Figure 5.1 DPRK cereal production, 1995/1996–2000/2001. Source: FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assess- ment Mission to the DPRK’’, July 2001. FOOD SECURITY 87 dicates that cereal production remained substantially below this target during the late 1990s. The most tragic result of chronic food deficits in the 1990s was the fam- ine of the 1990s that best estimates argue killed up to 1 million people over a period of four or five years.15 The continuing outcome has been the prevalence of chronic and acute malnutrition in the population as a whole, most extensively documented in the case of children under seven years old and women.16
Government responses to the economic and food crisis
The DPRK government responded to the economic and food security crisis of the 1990s with a mix of policy change in the agriculture sector, in the wider economy and in its foreign policies.17 It concentrated on redressing food insecurity through food availability policies. Food acces- sibility strategies were scarcely visible. Indeed, some of the policies adopted that were designed to increase food availability exacerbated problems in food accessibility for significant sectors of the population.
Agriculture
In the agriculture sector the DPRK government undertook ‘‘rezoning’’ of land, essentially a rationalization of land use to permit more efficient farming.18 It encouraged crop diversification (mainly potato production) and the more intensive use of the limited arable land (through double cropping). The government increased economic incentives for farmers through policy changes that rewarded small sub-work teams and allowed farming households to produce more and sell more surplus on private markets. The government also tolerated the use of marginal land as an emergency solution for food production. Policy changes in agriculture reflected an intensification of policies al- ready under way in the DPRK rather than major changes in policy direc- tion. Given the vastly changed macroeconomic context, sectoral policy change in agriculture alone did not, and could not, provide the necessary impetus to recovering self-sufficient cereal production. This was demon- strated in continuing large deficits in food production of staple crops, with the November 2004 report of the FAO/WFP Joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission showing a continuing aggregate cereal deficit of just under 0.5 million tonnes (or 10 per cent of the nation’s basic food requirements for simple survival) for the year 2004/2005.19 DPRK Minis- try of Agriculture figures for the agricultural production year 2005/2006 continue to show a deficit of just under 0.5 million tonnes. 88 HAZEL SMITH
Economic reform
The DPRK implemented some economic reforms, most visibly in the July 2002 measures that increased prices and wages and attempted to bring principles of profitability into operating and accounting mechanisms. The government did not, however, relinquish controls on price-setting and on the allocation and distribution of economic resources.20 As far as can be ascertained, however, the banking, credit, accounting, insurance and judicial systems did not evolve in such a way as to provide a legisla- tive framework for regulating legitimate profit-seeking by individuals within the new ‘‘market socialism’’ of the DPRK economy. Marketization developed unevenly in the DPRK. On the one hand, widespread and de facto marketization took place from the mid-1990s such that by the mid-2000s almost all economic transactions were no longer controlled by the state. The government also provided some legal foundations for pursuing ‘‘profit’’. At the same time, the institutional in- frastructure was still designed to frame the pre-famine closely planned and tightly state-controlled economy. There was a disjuncture therefore between the economic ‘‘facts on the ground’’ and the extant domestic legal framework. This disjuncture led, among other things, to a lack of clarity about what constituted a legal and what constituted an illegal eco- nomic transaction. It encouraged corruption because there was no legis- lation to define what constituted corruption in the new market socialist economy. It also provided a powerful disincentive for foreign investment, in that uncertainty remained about the respective rights and responsibil- ities of government, business and the individual in contract law. Continuing uncertainty in DPRK economic policy and the lack of insti- tutionalization of economic reforms were one reason for the continuing reluctance of international private business and foreign governments to invest in the DPRK. Another reason was of course the uncertainty over political and security outcomes on the Korean peninsula. The result was that economic activity remained low in the DPRK. By 2003, gross domes- tic product (GDP) per head at US$818 had only just climbed back to near the 1997 level of US$811 – from a low of US$573 in 1999.21 Figure 1.1 in Chapter 1 shows that, by 2004, GDP per capita income remained below US$1,000.
Food availability
The continuing aggregate cereal deficit of just under 0.5 million tonnes for 2004/2005 did not include 300,000 tonnes of cereal at concessional FOOD SECURITY 89
Table 5.1 Cereal deficits from FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessments in the DPRK (cereals, ’000 MTs) Date of Crop Assessment Dec. Dec. Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Report 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Marketing year 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 Total availability 4,077 2,995 2,663 3,481 3,472 2,920 Production 4,077 2,837 2,663 3,481 3,472 2,920 Opening stocks – 158 – – – – Total utilization 5,988 5,359 4,614 4,835 4,765 4,785 Food use 3,688 3,798 3,874 3,925 3,814 3,871 Feed use 1,400 600 300 300 300 300 Other use, seed and 900 645 440 610 651 614 post-harvest losses Closingstocks –316–––– Import requirement 1,911 2,364 1,951 1,354 1,293 1,865 Commercial import capacity 700 500 700 300 300 200 Concessional imports 500 Uncovered deficit 1,211 1,864 1,251 1,054 993 1,165 Source: WFP, Emergency Operation DPR Korea No. 5959.02, ‘‘Emergency As- sistance for Vulnerable Groups’’, Pyongyang, mimeo, 2000.
rates from South Korea.22 If the promise of South Korean assistance is not included, the real aggregate cereal deficit would have been 800,000 tonnes for that year, not much less than the average cereal deficit of around 1 million tonnes that was characteristic of annual cereal deficits through the late 1990s, as illustrated in Table 5.1. Table 5.2 shows that total national farm production reached only 4,498,000 tonnes in the agricultural year 2005/2006, slightly increased from a total of 4,130,000 tonnes in 2004/2005. Given that the minimum cereal requirements to feed the population are 5 million tonnes, Table 5.2 indicates continuing aggregate food deficits for 2005/2006 of at least 0.5 million tonnes or 10 per cent of the nation’s aggregate basic grain re- quirements. The figures do not include production from highly marginal lands, which is known by agronomists as ‘‘garden and slope’’ production. Estimates of total garden and slope production ranged from 105,000 tonnes to 250,000 tonnes for 2004/2005.23 Nevertheless, even if produce from garden and slope production is included at the higher figure, Table 5.2 shows that the DPRK could not feed its population in 2005/2006 from its own agricultural production. Without continuing short-term humani- tarian assistance, large parts of the population would again face starva- tion and severe malnutrition. 90
Table 5.2 Area planted and production, 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 2004/2005 2005/2006
Actual Actual Area Production productiona Area Production productiona (000 ha) (000 t) (000 t) (000 ha) (000 t) (000 t)
Main season crops Paddy 583 2,370 1,541 583 2,581 1,678 Maize 495 1,727 1,727 495 2,062 2,062 Other cereals 60 119 119 bb b Potatoesa 89 258 258 277 479 479c Total, main season crops 1,227 4,475 3,645
Winter/spring crops 135 279 279 Wheat 70 166 166 bb b Barley 32 64 64 bb b Potatoesa 100 255 255 cc b National farm total 1,428 4,959 4,130 1,517 5,451 4,498 Notes: a Actual production totals convert paddy rice to milled rice equivalent at a standard conversion rate of 65%. Potatoes are in cereal equivalent using a standard 25% conversion rate. b In 2005/2006 all ‘‘other cereals’’, including wheat and barley production from spring cropping, are amalgamated as a total in the row ‘‘winter/spring crops’’. c In 2005/2006 the potato crop from both spring and other planting is aggregated. Sources: Figures for 2004/2005 derived from FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, mimeo, Rome, 22 November 2004. Figures for 2005/2006 from Crops Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Pyongyang, mimeo, July 2006. FOOD SECURITY 91
Food availability challenges
In 2002 the numbers of the non-farming population stood at 15.6 million, some 70 per cent of a total estimated population of between 22.3 million and 23.5 million.24 The remaining 30 per cent of the population was composed of cooperative farming families. The medium- and long-term challenge became therefore to move towards sufficient food availability to cover the basic needs of the non-farming and farming population on a regular and sustainable basis. The difficult farming environment (short growing seasons, mountainous topography, relatively scarce decent arable land) combined with a con- tinuing necessity for high-energy agro-industrial inputs and the dilapi- dated farming infrastructure (including low levels of mechanization, ob- solescent and inefficient irrigation networks) meant that the marginal increases in harvests over recent years came about only because of sub- stantial fertilizer assistance from South Korea. In 2004, for instance, South Korea provided 60 per cent of all fertilizer used in North Korea in that year – at highly concessional rates that effectively meant that the fertilizer came free of charge.25 Increases in agricultural production can of course contribute to easing the cereal and food deficits. However, given short-, medium- and proba- bly long-term economic constraints facing the DPRK, it is not a realistic option to aim for increases in aggregate food availability by concentrat- ing on increasing agricultural production. The scale of increases in agri- cultural productivity and production that would be necessary to meet aggregate food needs from self-sufficient agricultural production makes such a strategy lacking in feasibility. On the other hand, sustainable ag- gregate food security could come about from a policy mix of improving agricultural productivity and increasing export earnings so as to be able to buy food on commercial terms. A policy mix of agricultural revival as well as economic regenera- tion was precisely the approach adopted by the DPRK government and the UN agencies, which by 2003 were together arguing for a multi- sectoral food security strategy. The Common Country Assessment stated that:
Food security can be achieved only through concerted action across sectors, and through economic development and growth . . . DPR Korea would have to maintain a level of food imports even with a dynamic agricultural sector. The capacity to import food depends on trade and economic growth. To ensure food security therefore demands a multifaceted, parallel and simultaneous approach to a wide spectrum of economic and social issues.26 92 HAZEL SMITH
The necessity for external aid
Rates of malnutrition diminished from the post-1998 highs but stabilized at levels that were similar to those of chronically poor countries of South- east Asia.27 Given the inability of the government to achieve food secu- rity from changes in domestic agricultural and economic policies, in 2005 it remained forced to rely on humanitarian and economic support from foreign governments, international organizations and non-governmental organizations. In 2005, the largest supplier of humanitarian assistance and concessional economic transfers, as well as one of the DPRK’s two most important trading partners (the other being China), was South Korea.28
Food accessibility
Prior to the economic and food crisis of the 1990s, food and income allo- cation and distribution took place centrally, with rations allocated ac- cording to a transparent points scheme based on occupational status and age.29 Basic rations were guaranteed to the population. Health, education and social facilities were free and provided nationwide. The Public Distribution System (PDS) managed and distributed food to non- cooperative-farming families. Cooperative-farming families were ex- pected to provide food, personal income and financing for village health, education and social facilities through their own farming production and sales from farming products. In times of food shortages prior to the 1990s, the evidence suggests that food at reduced rations remained accessible to the population.30 The PDS mechanisms continued to operate and farming families managed to continue to feed themselves. After the mid-1990s the government did not have access to sufficient food stocks to supply the PDS.31 In some coun- ties from the mid-1990s onwards, the PDS had no food supply at all in some months. From the late 1990s the PDS evolved as a supplier of last resort of rations to key workers and vulnerable groups. The system changed from allocating a differential ration based on work points for every member of the population to a system based on a notional common flat-rate minimal ration of around 300 grams per day, depending on food availability, to those sectors of the population who were deemed most in need at any particular time. Farming families also suffered from lack of access to food during the mid and late 1990s. Those with better farmland and access to inputs re- covered their capacity to feed themselves and their families by the early FOOD SECURITY 93
2000s. Poor farmers, on the other hand, did not recover such as to guaran- tee secure access to year-round food supplies. They had previously relied on government-supplied inputs such as fertilizer, chemicals and oil, and, in the new economic climate of the 2000s, were no longer able to receive such support. The so-called songbun stratification, which divided the North Korean population into different classes depending on their relative loyalty to the party, was never a categorization used for food allocation purposes. It had operated instead much as the class system operates in Western countries. It may have shaped what education opportunities were avail- able and what social contacts are made, but it did not necessarily prevent someone with luck or opportunity from achieving career or personal suc- cess. In today’s DPRK it is almost redundant as a means of predicting personal survival and opportunity; instead, it is the degree of access to agricultural production, trading opportunities and/or hard currency that is significant.
Theriseofthemarketandunequalaccesstofood
The economy stabilized at a low level of activity in the 2000s, having been reconstituted since the 1990s around broad market principles of profitability and incentive structures.32 The July 2002 economic reform measures legitimated these market mechanisms. Food security, in terms of having regular access to food and other goods such as medicines and health care, came within the reach of those who could benefit from the new market mechanisms and from the relatively small hard currency sec- tor of the economy. As in all market systems, some benefited and many did not. Soaring inflation, high unemployment and underemployment, and continuing food and goods shortages also meant that those social groups and individuals without access to the benefits of the market (that is, the vast majority of the population) remained food insecure. In the DPRK, those with inadequate regular access to food could be differentiated through the non-mutually exclusive categories of geo- graphical location, occupation, gender and age. Given continuing chronic food deficits and in the absence of substantial foreign investment, those currently vulnerable to recurring food shortages are likely to stay vulner- able. Without substantial economic growth it is likely that these sectors of the population will become more, not less, vulnerable. Social market systems tend to protect those who are most vulnerable in market societies through provision of a social safety net. In the DPRK, the social security net that broke down with the economic devastation of the 1990s has not been restored. Those unable to earn income, or without 94 HAZEL SMITH assets to swap for food, continued to face the risk of starvation and death. Humanitarian food assistance helped but was never enough to feed all those who were in need.33 Geographical variations At least since the 1990s the most food-insecure locations have been the mountainous north-eastern provinces of North Hamgyong and South Hamgyong. These provinces contain the densely populated cities of Chongjin, Hamhung and Kimchaek and mining counties such as Mu- san.34 Thesewereparticularlybadlyaffected by food shortages because the large urban populations had little or no access to arable land and ex- perienced extreme winter temperatures. In addition, the large industrial workforce of these major cities suffered catastrophic large-scale unem- ployment and underemployment after heavy industry abruptly collapsed in the early 1990s owing to resource shortages caused by the cut-off of markets, investment, energy supplies and technological support from the former communist states. The high numbers of unemployed industrial workersalsolackedaccesstothelimited foreign investment that took place in the DPRK in the 2000s in the south and west of the country. Occupational disparities Those most likely to suffer from food insecurity as a function of their occupational status were those without access to hard currency, without opportunities for food production or without the capacity to engage intheflourishingpettytradesectorthatisacorefeatureofthenew DPRK economy. These included the unemployed and underemployed in- dustrial workers; public and social sector employees; poor farmers (on non-productive or marginal land); and those unable to work owing to age (pensioners and children), sickness or for other reasons (prisoners for instance). The adult unemployed were additionally vulnerable because, unless they were pregnant or nursing women, they were normally not eligible for international humanitarian assistance. Gender variations Women and men were both vulnerable to food insecurity in the DPRK, but in different ways.35 Because of cultural norms, it was generally the woman’s responsibility to provide food for the household. The woman often eats last and, in a situation of absence of food in the household, may not eat at all, prioritizing the males for food allocation. In addition, women in the DPRK, as in many other countries, were to be found work- ing predominantly in low-paid and low-status jobs – such as the care pro- fessions. These jobs are not seen by the government as key sectors for re- generation of the economy and were therefore not given priority for food FOOD SECURITY 95 allocation when only a limited amount of food was available for local dis- tribution. When government rations were scarce, males in the industrial and energy sectors were given priority for food distribution. Boys and girls also faced the unequal effects of food shortages. The 1998 nutrition survey, for instance, found that male toddlers (12–24 months) were much more at risk of suffering from severe malnutrition (wasting) than were females of the same age.36 This was probably not so much a question of differential food access as of different gendered expectations of boys and girls. The working hypothesis within the aid agencies was that in times of extreme food stress, that is in famine condi- tions, even if girls and boys were allocated the same amount of survival rations, little boys may have been treated as if they were less vulnerable (to cold for instance) and these marginal differences in treatment may have had a cumulative effect on differential rates of severe malnutrition. No conclusive explanation was found and by the time of the 2004 nutri- tion survey the rates of wasting were found to be similar in girls and boys.37 The prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age) was, however, found to be statistically significantly higher for boys than for girls in the 2004 nutrition survey.38
Age variations Those of pension age without assets, with a virtually worthless pension because of high inflation, with an inability to engage in market activities owing to infirmity or lack of contacts, and without family wherewithal to offer material support were vulnerable to food insecurity. At the other end of the age spectrum, the prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age) remained high in 2004 at 36 per cent – a slight fall from the 2002 figure of 39 per cent.39 Disaggregated figures show that 20 per cent of babies (0– 11 months) were stunted in 2004.40 Those aged 12–23 months remained acutely vulnerable to malnutrition, with 8.7 per cent classed as ‘‘wasted’’ (low weight-for-height) in 2004.41 Some babies aged 12–23 months prob- ably starved to death because insufficient and inadequate weaning food was available and they could not digest food aid such as wheat or corn that sometimes came from the international aid agencies.
From state to market: New food security vulnerabilities and opportunities
With the consolidation of market principles and mechanisms of operat- ing, it becomes more difficult to offer meaningful analysis of food insecu- rity based on social group or sectoral vulnerabilities such as geographical location, occupation, age and gender. This is because the government’s 96 HAZEL SMITH role as the primary source of food allocation and distribution has been replaced by the market. With marketization, who gets what in terms of differential access to market opportunities (as opposed to state distribu- tion) determines who is food secure or food insecure. From the late 1990s, the coping mechanisms open to individuals and households differed across households and became based on differenti- ated access to market opportunities. These opportunities did not always coincide with pre-1990s social distinctions. City-based middle-level party workers, for instance, who once could have relied on a reasonable level of state distribution of food (and other goods) for themselves and their family would, in the post-famine DPRK, be very food insecure with a risk of facing debilitating levels of malnutrition if they did not have access to relatives in the country who could provide food support. By contrast, a young woman working in a low-status cleaning or waitressing job in a res- taurant or hotel frequented by foreigners who could use those connec- tions to obtain even small amounts of hard currency would be able to guarantee food security for herself and her family.
Government and international community response to food accessibility challenges
The government’s strategy to redress food inaccessibility differentials was not clear, although it did attempt to maintain a ration of last resort for all the population. It was not, however, always able to maintain basic rations for all including the most vulnerable. The multilateral international hu- manitarian organizations and NGOs provided a partial safety net by feeding children under seven years of age and pregnant and nursing women.42 Humanitarian aid by its nature, however, is designed to pro- vide one-off relief intervention. Absent a food access strategy, the DPRK ‘‘emergency’’ food aid operation has lasted some 10 years, since 1995. Major donors of food aid continued to be South Korea and China.43 South Korea gave assistance through multilateral and bilateral channels. China donated assistance through bilateral channels. Japan was also a major donor of humanitarian assistance. If a political solution is found to ongoing security conflicts in the Korean peninsula, Japan would also be a major provider of development assistance. This is because it is pub- licly committed to transferring substantial amounts of funding in recom- pense for its colonial occupation of Korea, as it has already done with re- spect to South Korea in 1965. Russia also donated food to the DPRK through the WFP. Outside Northeast Asia, a large number of countries have provided humanitarian assistance, including the United States and the European Union and its member states. FOOD SECURITY 97
Addressing food availability and accessibility challenges: New approaches
In 2004 the DPRK government announced that it no longer wished to im- plement a food security strategy that it understood as being focused on humanitarian assistance. Instead it declared its intention to reorient its work with international agencies in the direction of a long-term redevel- opment approach. However, the international humanitarian organiza- tions continued to work in the DPRK – given the manifest ongoing needs of the population. A substantive development programme for the DPRK would require investment from external sources but would also require recognition from all parties that there continues to be cause for humanitarian con- cern in the DPRK in terms of food insecurity. External investment, there- fore, would need to integrate assistance to those who need it most within development frameworks. Investment in the north-east, for instance, would not only provide employment and hence income opportunities for populations that were food insecure. It would also provide support for the energy requirements of the agricultural sector, for instance for irriga- tion, and contribute towards support to rebuilding industrial production and therefore export opportunities. This in turn would help provide hard currency such that the DPRK could buy food on commercial mar- kets. However, given the decrepit and obsolescent economic infrastruc- ture and continuing political tensions, foreign investment of the volume needed to generate economic regeneration and therefore sustainable food security is not likely to come from private investors in the short or medium term. Such investment is likely to be available only from govern- ments or international financial institutions. Development assistance on its own will not bring economic transfor- mation, development and sustainable food security to the DPRK. With- out support in building the institutions of a modern economy that will help the DPRK compete in a globalized market, financial and capital transfers are likely to be non-productive. The FAO has hinted at the ne- cessity for such institution-building. It reported in 2004 that, in addition to food aid, the ‘‘international community enter with the Government into a policy dialogue to set an enabling framework to mobilize the eco- nomic, financial and other assistance needed to promote sustainable food production and overall food security’’.44 A focus on development will require new modes of collaboration be- tween the government and the international community. These should be respectful of the sovereignty of the DPRK government as well as pro- viding accountability to the taxpayers of investor states if investment comes from public bilateral or multilateral funds. 98 HAZEL SMITH
Food security challenges – and how to overcome them
According to the joint analysis of the DPRK government and UN agencies in the CCA, achieving food security in the DPRK does not just depend on restoring agricultural production.45 They argue that food se- curity is a multisectoral issue. Achieving food security is not confined to any one defined sector such as agriculture and food production. Along with the United Nations Country Team, I would agree that ‘‘[t]o ensure food security therefore demands a multifaceted, parallel and simultaneous approach to a wide spectrum of economic and social issues.’’46 The devil, however, is in the detail. How that multifaceted strategy is developed, implemented and hopefully achieved is the issue in contention. This chapter therefore presents next a set of policy recommendations. These build on the foregoing analysis of food security challenges.
Policy recommendations
(1) Potential bilateral and multilateral investors and the DPRK govern- ment should refocus collaboration on an integrated development, sustainable food and energy security and anti-poverty strategy. (2) This integrated strategy should be developed and implemented through a multilateral, intergovernmental, technical agency set up for the time-specific and limited purposes of collaboration to achieve redevelopment for the DPRK. (3) Given that major donors are likely to be South Korea, China and Japan, there is a case to be made for a technical Economic Develop- ment and Food Security (EDFS) agency to have as its constituent members the countries of Northeast Asia. (4) Foreign investment should be channelled through the EDFS such as to encourage mutual responsibilities in developing transparent, ac- countable and efficient procedures and modes of operation. (5) Assistance should as a matter of principle always be accompanied by technical assistance in relevant and appropriate institution-building activities, ranging from the implementation of quality assurance pro- cedures for industrial and energy systems to consolidating a modern banking, credit and accounting system. (6) Policy dialogue on food security should include relevant technical in- stitutions such as the UNDP, FAO, IFAD and WFP, with the Inter- national Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Asian Development Bank as observers. (7) External providers of assistance should reorient policies towards em- ployment creation in food-vulnerable geographical areas. This should be in the form of socially productive investment, for instance in the FOOD SECURITY 99
energy sector, including the mining sector, in the north-east of the country. (8) Household surveys of food security should take place so as to provide more and better data on how food insecurity patterns have changed since marketization of the economy took place from the 1990s on- wards.
Facing realities
The government and the international organizations have moved a long way since their initial encounters in the 1990s. There is a broad consensus on the need to increase food availability not just by making efforts to in- crease agricultural production but also in terms of the common recogni- tion of the importance of rebuilding the economy to promote export earnings. Those governments willing and able to support DPRK eco- nomic redevelopment will therefore need to provide necessary inputs ranging from capital investment through to technology transfers. Cru- cially, however, they will also need to find ways to encourage the input of the institutional know-how that will be needed for the DPRK to re- invent itself as a modern economy with real prospects for sustainable recovery. More troubling is the lack of a strategy from the government designed to ensure equitable food accessibility. Without such a strategy and an accompanying programme of implementation, food accessibility problems and consequently food insecurity for large parts of the popu- lation are likely to continue.
Notes
1. For a discussion on data issues see Hazel Smith, Hungry for Peace: International Secu- rity, Humanitarian Assistance and Social Change in North Korea, Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2005, pp. 8–19. See also my discussion in a docu- mentIwroteforUnicef,An Analysis of the Situation of Children and Women in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2000, Pyongyang: Unicef DPRK, December 1999. 2. See, for instance, reports from the FAO, UNDP and WFP. These include FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Report: Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, mimeo, 22 December 1995; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Alert No. 267: Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, mimeo, 16 May 1996; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Alert No. 275: Crop and Food Sup- ply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, mimeo, 3 June 1997; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Report: Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, mimeo, 25 November 1997; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, Rome, 10 December 1997; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment 100 HAZEL SMITH
Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, 25 June 1998; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Report: Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, 29 June 1999; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assess- ment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, Rome, 24 July 2000; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Report: Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Demo- cratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, Rome, 16 November 2000; FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, Rome, 26 October 2001; and many others up to the present day, including FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, mimeo, 22 November 2004. FAO reports can be found online at hhttp:// www.reliefweb.int/i. On agriculture see also UNDP, ‘‘Report of the First Thematic Round Table Conference for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, Geneva, May 1998; UNDP, ‘‘Report of the Second Thematic Round Table Conference for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, Geneva, June 2000. From the WFP see, for example, World Food Programme, ‘‘Basic Agreement between the United Nations FAO World Food Program and the Government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Concerning Assistance from the World Food Program’’, mimeo, 9 June 1986; World Food Programme in collaboration with FAO, Unicef and Save the Children, Nu- tritional Assessment the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Pyongyang/Rome: WFP, November 1997; World Food Programme, Emergency Operation DPR Korea No. 5710.02, ‘‘Emergency Food Assistance Following Floods’’, 1997; World Food Pro- gramme, ‘‘WFP Operations in DPR Korea as of 14 July 1999’’, Rome, WFP, undated but 1999; World Food Programme, ‘‘Outline for EMOP Submission: Emergency Opera- tion DPR Korea No. 5710.00: ‘Emergency Food Assistance for Flood Victims’ ’’, in WFP, ‘‘WFP Operations in DPR Korea as of 14 July 1999’’; World Food Programme, Emergency Operation DPR Korea No. 5959, ‘‘Emergency Food Assistance for Vulner- able Groups’’, in WFP, ‘‘WFP Operations in DPR Korea as of 14 July 1999’’; World Food Programme, ‘‘DPRK Update’’, Pyongyang, April 1999; World Food Programme, ‘‘Special Update: Newly Accessible Counties’’, mimeo, Pyongyang, 5 July 1999; World Food Programme, ‘‘DPR Korea Update No. 10’’, Pyongyang, October 1999; World Food Programme, ‘‘Recovery Assistance for Vulnerable Groups in DPR Korea’’, draft, mimeo, Pyongyang, undated but 1999; World Food Programme, ‘‘Alternative Foods’’, information sheet on ‘‘WFP in DPRK’’, Pyongyang, December 1999; World Food Pro- gramme, ‘‘Stories from DPR Korea: Emergency Officers Talk to Beneficiaries’’, Pyong- yang, 2000; World Food Programme, ‘‘DPR Korea Update No. 40’’, Pyongyang, May 2002; World Food Programme, ‘‘DPR Korea Update No. 41’’, Pyongyang, June 2002; World Food Programme DPR Korea, ‘‘The Public Distribution System’’, mimeo, Pyongyang, undated but obtained by author from WFP Pyongyang, February 2003; World Food Programme, ‘‘DPR Korea Update No. 52’’, Pyongyang, May 2003. These reports are also available online. 3. For analysis of international organization activity in the DPRK, see Hazel Smith, Over- coming Humanitarian Dilemmas in the DPRK, Special Report No. 90, Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace, July 2002, reproduced on hhttp://www.usip.org/pubs/ specialreports/sr90.htmli. 4. See hhttp://www.reliefweb.int/i. 5. UNDP, ‘‘Report of the First Thematic Round Table Conference for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’; UNDP, ‘‘Report of the Second Thematic Round Table Conference for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’. 6. For references, see note 2. 7. United Nations Country Team, ‘‘DPR Korea Common Country Assessment 2002’’, Pyongyang, mimeo, February 2003. FOOD SECURITY 101
8. The European Union, Unicef and the WFP in partnership with the Government of DPRK, ‘‘Nutrition Survey of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, New York: Unicef, 1998; DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘Report on the DPRK Nutrition Assessment, 2002’’, Pyongyang, 20 November 2002, Juche 91; DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘DPRK 2004 Nutrition Assessment: Report of Survey Results’’, Pyong- yang: Institute of Child Nutrition, mimeo, February 2005. 9. Heather Smith, ‘‘The Food Economy: The Catalysts for Collapse?’’, in Marcus Noland (ed.), Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula, Washington DC: Institute for In- ternational Economics, 1998, pp. 53–75. 10. United Nations Country Team, ‘‘DPR Korea Common Country Assessment 2002’’. 11. Ibid., p. 13. 12. Ibid., p. 13. 13. For details on the complex causation of malnutrition in the DPRK see Unicef, An Ana- lysis of the Situation of Children and Women in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2000, Pyongyang: Unicef DPRK, December 1999. 14. On food shortages specifically, see the authoritative Suk Lee, ‘‘Food Shortages and Eco- nomic Institutions in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, unpublished PhD thesis, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK, January 2003. For broader discussion see Smith, Hungry for Peace. 15. Lee, ‘‘Food Shortages and Economic Institutions in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’. 16. European Union, Unicef and WFP in partnership with the Government of DPRK, ‘‘Nu- trition Survey’’; DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘Report on the DPRK Nutrition Assessment 2002’’; DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘DPRK 2004 Nutrition Assess- ment: Report of Survey Results’’. 17. For detailed analysis, see Smith, Hungry for Peace. 18. For summary of policy change in the agricultural sector, see UNDP, ‘‘Report of the First Thematic Round Table Conference for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’; UNDP, ‘‘Report of the Second Thematic Round Table Conference for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’. 19. FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the DPRK’’, 22 November 2004. 20. For discussion of the problems associated with the socio-economic marketization under way in the DPRK as at 2005, see Hazel Smith, ‘‘Crime and Economic Instability: The Real Security Threat from North Korea and What to Do about It’’, International Rela- tions of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2005, pp. 235–249, available at hhttp://irap. oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/lci114?ijkey=Dx2FUa038QiP1Yc&keytype=rei (accessed 31 January 2007). 21. FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the DPRK’’, 22 November 2004, p. 3. 22. Ibid. 23. For the smaller figure, see FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the DPRK’’, 22 November 2004. The larger figure comes from expert assessments by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) as discussed with author, SDC, Bern, November 2006. 24. Estimate of 22.3 million from Figure 1.1 and estimate of 23.5 million from United Na- tions Country Team, ‘‘DPR Korea Common Country Assessment 2002’’, p. 16. 25. For discussion on fertilizer assistance and usage, see FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Sup- ply Assessment Mission to the DPRK’’, 22 November 2004, pp. 9–10. 26. United Nations Country Team, ‘‘DPR Korea Common Country Assessment 2002’’, p. 9. 27. For detailed comparison of DPRK nutritional indicators with countries of Southeast 102 HAZEL SMITH
Asia, see DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘Report on the DPRK Nutrition Assess- ment 2002’’. For 2004 figures, see DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘DPRK 2004 Nu- trition Assessment: Report of Survey Results’’. 28. See Anthony Faiola, ‘‘Despite U.S. Attempts, N. Korea Anything but Isolated’’, washingtonpost.com, 12 May 2005, at hhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ article/2005/05/11/AR2005051100527_pf.htmli (accessed 31 January 2007). 29. For details on the way the rationing system used to be organized prior to the 1990s, see Lola Nathanail, Food and Nutrition Assessment of the DPRK, Rome: World Food Pro- gramme, 1996. 30. Lee, ‘‘Food Shortages and Economic Institutions in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’. 31. For detailed discussion and extensive sources, see chapters two, three, four and five of Smith, Hungry for Peace. 32. Ibid. 33. For quantitative data showing continuing vulnerability of young children and women in 2004, with comparisons with 1998, see DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘DPRK 2004 Nutrition Assessment: Report of Survey Results’’. 34. For discussion of the relative vulnerability of these provinces, see Hazel Smith, ‘‘Asym- metric Nuisance Value: The Border in China–Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Relations’’, in Timothy Hildebrandt (ed.), Uneasy Allies: Fifty Years of China–North Korea Relations, Washington DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program Special Re- port, September 2003, pp. 18–25. 35. For detailed analysis, see Hazel Smith, WFP DPRK Programmes and Activities: A Gen- der Perspective, Pyongyang: WFP, 1999, p. 38. 36. European Union, Unicef and WFP in partnership with the Government of DPRK, ‘‘Nutrition Survey’’. 37. DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘DPRK 2004 Nutrition Assessment: Report of Survey Results.’’ 38. Ibid. 39. Ibid. 40. Ibid. 41. Ibid. 42. For detail and discussion of the scope and scale of humanitarian assistance to the DPRK, see Smith, Overcoming Humanitarian Dilemmas in the DPRK. 43. For detailed discussion of donor interest and activities, see chapter seven of Smith, Hun- gry for Peace. 44. FAO/WFP, ‘‘Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the DPRK’’, 22 November 2004, p. 1. 45. United Nations Country Team, ‘‘DPR Korea Common Country Assessment 2002’’. 46. Ibid. 103
6 The preconditions for Korean security: US policy and the legacy of 1945
Selig S. Harrison
Overview: 1945 to 2005 and beyond
The division of Korea in 1945 and the creation of two client states subsi- dized respectively by the United States, in the case of the South, and by the Soviet Union and China, in the case of the North, set the stage for foreign military intervention in the peninsula that has not yet come to an end. The armistice that ended the Korean war did lead to the end of Soviet and Chinese intervention when Soviet and Chinese forces were with- drawn in 1958. Later, the end of the Cold War brought a gradual shift on the part of both the Soviet Union and China from their role as mili- tary allies of North Korea to the new role of honest broker between the North and South. By contrast, the United States has maintained a sub- stantial military presence in the South and continues to maintain an ad- versarial posture toward the North. Indeed, the confrontation between the United States and North Korea has intensified since the US discovery in 1989 that Pyongyang was seeking to develop nuclear weapons. The dichotomy between the traditional conceptualization of security in narrowly military terms and the emphasis on human security that defines this book is dramatically exemplified by the continued presence of US forces in Korea, half a century after the Korean war, and, above all, by the myopic US focus on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes. This chapter will begin by reviewing the origins of the North Korean quest for a nuclear deterrent and will then focus on the key long-term
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 104 SELIG S. HARRISON
US policy choices in Korea that will determine whether North Korea continues to regard nuclear weapons as necessary for its security. North Korea initiated its nuclear weapons programme as a direct re- sponse to the challenge posed by the deployment of US Honest John, Lance and Nike-Hercules missiles in the South in 1958. In Korea as in Europe, the United States proclaimed a ‘‘first use’’ strategic doctrine that justified the use of nuclear weapons against conventional forces. In Europe, however, NATO doctrine envisaged primary reliance on con- ventional weapons to block an invasion for as long as possible. Nuclear weapons were to be used only as a last resort if it became unavoidable. Since the Soviet Union had nuclear weapons, the United States would have risked an all-out war by using the tactical nuclear weapons it had stationed in Europe. By contrast, in Korea, where the North did not then have nuclear weapons, the United States assumed that it could use them with impunity ‘‘within one hour of the outbreak of war’’,1 and made its intention to do so clear through military exercises that included ‘‘nu- clear war-fighting’’ scenarios. To be sure, the US objective was to deter a North Korean conventional attack. But, as Peter Hayes has demonstrated, North Korea was ‘‘over- deterred’’ by these nuclear threats, viewing the danger of an actual US attack ‘‘as conceivable and even likely’’.2 In 1991, 33 years after the 1958 deployment, President George H. W. Bush announced the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from South Korea, opening the way for a 1994 Pyongyang–Washington agreement, known as the Agreed Framework, which suspended the North Korean nuclear weapons effort for eight years. The Agreed Framework stopped what would otherwise have been the production of some 30 nuclear weapons a year by existing and projected reactors. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il concluded this ‘‘freeze’’ agreement over the opposition of his own armed forces in the expecta- tion of diplomatic recognition and economic help from the United States. But the Clinton administration failed to fulfil these expectations, primar- ily because congressional Republicans limited its freedom of action. Republican leaders condemned the 1994 accord from the start. They branded it as appeasement of what they regard as a dangerous, morally repugnant totalitarian regime that could not be trusted and that would collapse in the absence of economic aid such as the oil shipments pro- vided under the ‘‘freeze’’ agreement. The US goal, in this view, should be to encourage the collapse of North Korea and its absorption by the South or, at the very least, the replacement of the regime.3 During the first two years after Republican George W. Bush became president in January 2001, Bush’s first Secretary of State, Colin Powell, declared his desire on several occasions to keep the Agreed Framework US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 105 in force and to ‘‘pick up where the Clinton people left off’’. But Powell was openly rebuffed and proved unable to resume the negotiations on the nuclear and missile agreements with North Korea initiated by Clinton in the face of resistance from Bush and other advocates of ‘‘regime change’’ in his administration.4 On 20 September 2002, the Bush administration announced the Na- tional Security Doctrine, which asserted the US right to wage a pre- emptive war against North Korea and other ‘‘rogue states’’ regarded as potential adversaries. This was followed on 12 December 2002 by US ab- rogation of the Agreed Framework, which led to North Korea’s ouster of the international inspectors who had been monitoring its nuclear pro- gramme since 1994. Pointing to the National Security Doctrine and the abrogation of the freeze agreement, North Korea promptly resumed its nuclear programme, announcing on 10 February 2005 that it had ‘‘manu- factured nukes’’ and was now a ‘‘nuclear weapons state’’. In October 2006 it conducted a nuclear test, but the explosion was measured at less than 1 kiloton, indicating that its nuclear weapons programme is still in its early stages. The central objectives of US policy toward the Korean peninsula at the end of 2006 were, first, to negotiate a multilateral denuclearization agree- ment among the United States, China, North Korea, South Korea, Rus- sia, Japan and North Korea, and, second, to preserve the mutual security treaty with South Korea established following the 1953 armistice, modify- ing the US force posture in the South from one focused primarily on North Korea to one that would facilitate any future US military action against China. In pursuing these objectives, however, the Bush adminis- tration failed to take into account political realities in both North and South Korea. Moreover, the prospects for a denuclearization accord were undermined by ambivalence within the administration over whether to seek ‘‘regime change’’ or to move toward the normalization of rela- tions with the Kim Jong Il regime. North Korea has served notice that it will not discuss the dismantling of its nuclear weapons programme until the United States agrees to nor- malize economic and diplomatic relations and formally repudiate the goal of ‘‘regime change’’. Nevertheless, in its proposed denuclearization agreement, presented at the Six-Party Beijing nuclear talks on 24 June 2004, the Bush administration stated that, even if North Korea did dis- mantle its nuclear weapons programme, this would not lead to the estab- lishment of normal relations unless North Korea ‘‘changes its behavior on human rights’’, eliminates alleged chemical and biological weapons programmes, ‘‘puts an end to the proliferation of missiles and missile- related technology, and adopts a less provocative conventional force disposition’’.5 106 SELIG S. HARRISON
Until recently, the continuation of the US military presence in Korea has been justified solely as a deterrent to a possible repetition of North Korean aggression. But the US presence is now also described as an essential part of a Northeast Asia basing structure that will enable the United States to intervene in any military conflicts involving Beijing. The US decision in 2004 to relocate 12,500 US forces from the Demilita- rized Zone (DMZ) to expanded base facilities at Pyongtaek on the south- west coast of South Korea, facing China, has underscored the fact that the US alliance with South Korea is increasingly viewed by the Pentagon in terms of China as well as North Korea. This change in US strategy could lead to a future divergence of US and South Korean interests since a China-focused US alliance with Seoul, or with a unified Korea, would be intolerable to Beijing in a climate of worsening Sino–US relations and of a continued US alliance with Japan. At best, the peninsula would be destabilized by a continuing Sino-Japanese tug of war over Korea. At worst, China would succeed in drawing Korea into an anti-Japanese, anti- US military alliance. Divisions within South Korea concerning the future of its alliance with the United States are steadily hardening against the background of grow- ing sentiment in the South for reconciliation and eventual reunification with the North. Since the June 2000 North–South summit, South Korean fears of the North have progressively eased, and support for the engage- ment policies pursued by former president Kim Dae Jung and his succes- sor, Roh Moo Hyun, have steadily grown, embracing significant elements of conservative opposition groups. The United States is increasingly viewed as an obstacle to the improvement of relations with Pyongyang. Significantly, for economic reasons South Korea has sought to avoid a sudden rupture with Washington that would create an image of instabil- ity and frighten away foreign investors. Increasingly, however, the long- term need for the alliance is being questioned and support for reshaping the nature of the US presence is growing. Critics of the alliance argue that the United States itself has recognized the diminishing military threat from Pyongyang by pulling back its forces from the DMZ and shifting the focus of the alliance from North Korea to China. As tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang ease, pressures could well grow for a trilateral peace treaty (the United States, North Korea and South Korea) to replace the 1953 armistice. South Korean–US dis- cussions began in 2006 to plan for a shift of wartime operational control over South Korean forces to South Korea and for the replacement of the Combined Forces Command set up in 1978, headed by a US general, with separate but coordinated US and South Korean command structures similar to those maintained by US and Japanese forces in Japan. US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 107
‘‘Korean security’’ is defined in this chapter as embracing both the achievement of a secure environment within the peninsula and security for the peninsula as a whole in the context of the global and regional ri- valries of external powers. Proceeding from this definition, I will discuss two critical issues relating to the impact of US policy on Korean security: whether reunification, preceded by a confederation, should be encour- aged by the United States, and whether the gradual withdrawal of the US military presence through a process of force reductions, redeploy- ments and arms control would ease tensions and facilitate peaceful reuni- fication. Finally, I will consider the pros and cons of an agreement by Korea’s neighbours and the United States to neutralize the peninsula militarily by barring the presence of foreign forces, ruling out external military intervention and ending existing security treaties with both the North and the South. In this connection, I will examine the argument that a neutralized, in- dependent Korean buffer state following unification would be a magnet for external intervention, as in the nineteenth century, and lead inevita- bly to a nuclear-armed Korea.
One Korea
During the Cold War, it was widely assumed that the Korean peninsula would remain indefinitely divided. Then, when President Kim Il Sung of North Korea died in 1994 after ruling for nearly half a century, the con- ventional wisdom changed. It was widely assumed that North Korea would collapse, setting the stage for the absorption of the North by South Korea. Since the June 2002 North–South summit meeting, however, the possibility of a gradual, peaceful process of unification has appeared in- creasingly plausible. While not ruling out a collapse, I will focus on the possibility of a phased unification process starting with a confederation, and will seek to show that a unified Korea, however achieved, would be a force for stability in Northeast Asia. It would be a serious mistake to underrate the dynamism of the emo- tional drive for unification on both sides of the 38th parallel and thus the possibility of unpredictable developments that could step up the process. As Kim Dae Jung has observed, Korea’s division since 1945 has been ‘‘a painful, brief anomaly compared with thirteen centuries of Korean unity’’.6 The nation-states of Europe were only beginning to come to- gether with settled borders when the Korean peninsula was unified in AD 668. Apart from a civil war from AD 890 to 935 and an interval of Mongol rule over the north-west corner of the country from AD 1259 to 108 SELIG S. HARRISON
1392, Korea has maintained a continuous political identity within the same boundaries since the seventh century. Germany, by contrast, had been unified for less than a century when it was divided in 1945. With such a vivid national historical memory and a degree of ethnic and linguistic homogeneity found in few other countries, Koreans exem- plify the interdependence of individual and group identity emphasized by many psychiatrists and social psychologists. Erik H. Erikson wrote of ‘‘the mutual complementation of ethos and ego, of group identity and ego identity’’.7 ‘‘In its most central ethnic sense’’, Erikson said, the ulti- mate discovery of identity involves the psychological interplay between the individual and his or her communal culture, ‘‘a process which estab- lishes, in fact, the identity of these two identities’’.8 It might be debatable whether this insight has universal applicability to all societies and cul- tures. In the case of divided Korea, however, I find it unmistakably rele- vant, as do many other observers who have had intensive contact over the years with Koreans in both North and South. Stephen Linton, who grew up in Korea in a missionary family, has observed that ‘‘the division has had the psychological effect of physical dismemberment’’ on many Koreans of his acquaintance.9 This statement reminded me of a similar analogywithreferencetotheVietnamesebyBernardB.Fall,whowrote that the division of their country has had a psychological impact on many Vietnamese ‘‘as drastic as the amputation of their own limbs’’.10 Assuming, then, that unification will come sooner or later, is Korea likely to move directly to full unification or to pass through the interim stage of a confederation that could last for decades? The impact of a fully unified state, with integrated armed forces, on power relationships in the region would clearly be greater than that of a confederated polity in which the two partners would retain separate armed forces. To many foreign observers, talk of a confederation in Korea sounds le- galistic and academic. It seems more plausible that the South will absorb the North gradually or that the status quo will continue indefinitely until some explosion within the North, or between North and South, precipi- tates a sudden reunification of the peninsula. To North Korea, however, and to many Koreans in the South, the concept of a confederation has long been attractive as a realistic way to reduce North–South tensions and to formalize the de facto division of the peninsula while moving to- ward eventual reunification through structured interchange. At first, the North and South had radically different concepts of how a confederation would work. The North proposed a unitary, centralized confederation that many Western political scientists would call a federa- tion. Former presidents Kim Dae Jung and Roh Tae Woo envisaged a much looser confederal structure. US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 109
It was a significant departure when Roh advanced his proposal for a Korean Commonwealth or Korean National Community on 11 Septem- ber 1989. The new plan explicitly accepted the principle of equal repre- sentation in a projected transitional, 20-member council of ministers and a 100-member council of representatives. It also called for a joint secre- tariat to be located in the Panmunjom Demilitarized Zone and a resident liaison mission in Seoul and Pyongyang. However, echoing the South’s earlier policies, the plan continued to envisage the eventual integration of the two Korean states as a democratic republic following elections, and the new republic was to have a bicameral legislature in which the lower house would be based on population.11 Roh’s plan was a copy in most respects of the proposal for a loose con- federation that had long been advocated by Kim Dae Jung, then the prin- cipal opposition leader. The key difference was that Kim’s plan did not call for eventual elections and thus accepted the indefinite continuance of co-equal representation. At the same time, Kim’s ‘‘confederation of Korean republics’’ would differ fundamentally from Pyongyang’s single confederal republic because North and South would begin what is envis- aged as a protracted confederating process, possibly over a period of de- cades, without surrendering any of their sovereignty.12 By all accounts, the confederation concept was one of the most hotly debated and time-consuming topics discussed at the June 2000 Pyong- yang summit. Kim Jong Il initially made a determined defence of his father’s 1991 version of a ‘‘provisional’’ loose confederation. But he agreed, in the end, that the 1989 Roh Tae Woo ‘‘Korean Common- wealth’’ proposal, with its institutionalized 20-member council of minis- ters and its 100-member council of representatives, ‘‘converges’’ with what Kim Il Sung had in mind.13 The declaration issued after their June 2000 summit meeting by Kim Dae Jung and Kim Jong Il ‘‘acknowledged that the different formulas that the North and South favor for reunifica- tion have common factors’’.14 The election of Roh Moo Hyun as Kim Dae Jung’s successor in 2003 has led to a continuing thaw in North–South relations marked by rapid progress during 2004 on the establishment of an industrial zone at Kae- song in the North, where some 800 South Korean companies are ex- pected to invest, and by the conclusion of an agreement between military leaders that has averted renewed naval clashes in the Yellow Sea like those in 1999 and 2002. Roh has attempted to build support for the abolition or amendment of the National Security Law, dating back to mil- itary rule, which inhibits public discussion of North Korea policy and gives entrenched conservatives in the South Korean bureaucracy, armed forces and security services a legal basis for repressing elements in the 110 SELIG S. HARRISON
South actively working for expanded ties with the North. But domestic opposition to Roh’s conciliatory approach to the North remained strong in 2004. South Korea is polarized between a younger generation anxious to accelerate the improvement in North–South relations and a more cau- tious older generation. In the years ahead, as the Korean war generation dies off in the South, the process of improvement in North–South rela- tions is likely to gain momentum and efforts to move toward a loose con- federation could well be accelerated. For the present generation of North Korean leaders, a confederation would buy time, preserving their perquisites and power while keeping the dream of full unification alive. For the South, with its enormous eco- nomic advantage over the North, ever closer ties will gradually draw the North into its net. A confederation would facilitate a slow and relatively inexpensive form of absorption that would make much more sense than the costly and convulsive type of reunification that occurred in Germany. The impact of the United States on the pace of progress toward a con- federation could prove to be critical. Starting with his open expression of doubts about the wisdom of engaging the North during his White House meetingwithKimDaeJungon2March2001,PresidentGeorgeW.Bush has actively attempted to slow the pace. The United States initially re- buffed South Korean requests for permission to de-mine the DMZ so that road and rail links could be set up between South Korea and the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Only when Kim Dae Jung repeatedly pressed Bush did the United States agree to de-mining in September 2002. Since then, the United States has sought to restrict the technology that can be used by South Korean factories in Kaesong by resurrecting Cold War export controls. Apart from such examples of specific US efforts to block North–South reconciliation, the confrontational US approach to dealing with North Korea on the nuclear issue has had a broader impact on North Korea’s dealings with the South. So long as the nuclear crisis remains unresolved and Pyongyang continues to fear pre-emptive US military action or pres- sure for ‘‘regime change’’, Pyongyang will be reluctant to risk the desta- bilizing consequences of greater contacts with the South, as Roh Moo Hyun observed in a perceptive address to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council on 12 November 2004. In North Korea and South Korea alike, it is an article of faith that the United States deserves the principal blame for the division of the penin- sula and thus has a special responsibility for helping to restore national unity. This deep-seated sense of grievance is linked with the belief that Washington wanted to keep Korea divided during the Cold War in order to pursue US strategic objectives related mainly to Japan. Anti-American nationalism is surprisingly virulent even in the South, where military de- US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 111 pendence on the United States has generated strong undercurrents of xenophobia that are sweeping aside the gratitude felt by the older gener- ation for the US role in the Korean war. A representative poll of college students found that 79 per cent blamed the United States for the division of Korea and 64 per cent considered the United States to be the country most reluctant to see Korea reunified.15 The Korean indictment of the United States begins with the Cairo, Yalta and Potsdam conferences, condemning the casual disposition of the peninsula by the wartime allies that led to the division. Since Russian diplomacy traditionally had sought to divide Korea, argues Cho Soon Sung in a representative statement of the dominant Korean attitude, the United States either was a gullible fool or must have been more than ready to sacrifice Korean interests for the sake of its own, emerging Cold War strategic concerns.16 Until 1992, the United States was not explicitly committed to reunifica- tion as a goal of US policy. It was therefore not surprising that 64 per cent of the students interviewed in the South Korean polling study viewed the United States as the country most reluctant to see Korea reunified. In an effort to counter such feeling and to get in step with the conciliatory pol- icy toward the North being pursued by Roh Tae Woo, President George H. W. Bush told the South Korean National Assembly on 6 January 1992 that the American people favoured ‘‘peaceful unification on terms ac- ceptable to the Korean people’’. This deliberately vague statement to some extent insulated the United States from criticism as an outright en- emy of unification. But it conveyed a sanguine attitude toward the pros- pect of indefinite division and, in both the North and the South, Ameri- can motives are still suspect, especially in the context of the efforts by the George W. Bush administration to slow the pace of the North–South en- gagement process set in motion by the June 2000 summit.
Ending the Korean war
Half a century after the Korean war, the armistice agreement of 1953 has yet to be replaced by a peace treaty, and the machinery established to im- plement the agreement still remains in place. The Military Armistice Commission set up in 1953 was designed as a temporary expedient to oversee the cease-fire. But it lingers on in its original form, despite a steadily changing security environment symbol- ized by the reduction in North–South tensions since the June 2000 sum- mit and by the pullback of US forces from the 38th parallel in 2004. Sim- ilarly, during the Korean war, the United Nations Command provided a 112 SELIG S. HARRISON genuinely multilateral umbrella for US intervention in the conflict: 16 other countries joined the United States in fighting under the UN flag. But now the UN Command is only a fig leaf on what is in reality a unilat- eral US security commitment to South Korea. In 1978, the UN Command transferred its authority to the newly created US–South Korean Com- bined Forces Command and relinquished all of its military functions. Pyongyang points to the Armistice Commission and the UN Command as symbols of an adversarial relationship with the United States that it had hoped would end when it agreed to freeze its nuclear programme in 1994. On 28 May 1994, North Korea formally asked UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali to initiate steps that would lead to the replace- ment of the armistice agreement and the termination of the UN Com- mand. Boutros-Ghali replied categorically on 24 June that the United States alone has the authority to ‘‘decide on the continued existence or the dissolution of the United Nations Command’’. He recalled that Secu- rity Council Resolution 84 of 7 July 1950 ‘‘limited itself to recommending that all Members providing military forces and other assistance to the Republic of Korea ‘make such forces and other assistance available to a unified command under the United States of America.’ It follows, accord- ingly, that the Security Council did not establish the unified command as a subsidiary organ under its control, but merely recommended the cre- ation of such a command, specifying that it be under the authority of the United States. Therefore, the dissolution of the unified command does not fall within the responsibility of any United Nations organ but is a mat- ter within the competence of the Government of the United States.’’17 Apart from the utility of the UN Command as diplomatic cover for US representatives to the Military Armistice Commission, the United States has three other reasons for wanting to retain the UN Command indefi- nitely. One is a desire to avoid the need for renewed UN Security Coun- cil approval of US intervention in the event of a new war. US and South Korean forces could once again fight in the name of the UN Command without seeking UN approval as the United States did in the case of Desert Storm. A more substantial reason relates to the United States’ use of bases in Japan in connection with military operations in Korea. An agreement with Japan during the Korean war gave seven US bases in Japan dual legal status as UN Command bases. The UN Command has explicit authority to use these bases to refuel and service US aircraft en route to Korea in the event of hostilities. Maj. Gen. Lim Dong Won, who conducted the 1991 South Korean talks with North Korea that led to the ‘‘Basic Agreement’’, raised the subject of the UN Command in discussions with US officials prior to his negotiations with the North. He wanted to know how Washington would US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 113 feel about a possible offer to dissolve the UN Command as a bargaining chip with Pyongyang. ‘‘The United States took the position that the dis- solution of the U.N. Command was premature and undesirable’’, he said, ‘‘because it is a matter that is directly related to the continued use of mil- itary bases in Japan and to the return of ‘operational control’ of the South Korean armed forces to the Republic of Korea.’’18 Until recently, the governing reason for the US reluctance to dissolve the UN Command has been concern that this would undermine the legal and political foundations of US operational control over South Korean forces. This concern arose from the fact that, when Syngman Rhee, the first president of South Korea, originally transferred operational control in 1950, it was to the UN Command. However, under Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the Pentagon has attached diminishing importance to the retention of wartime opera- tional control. South Korea’s policy of engagement with the North has called into question Seoul’s willingness to cooperate with US-initiated military action against North Korea. Thus, in order to get complete free- dom of action in dealing with Pyongyang, the Pentagon under Rumsfeld has sought to extricate itself from the constraints imposed by the US– South Korean alliance. In the discussions with the United States that began in 2006 on the transfer of operational control, the Pentagon was ready to transfer con- trol sooner than South Korea, reflecting divisions within the South Ko- rean armed forces over the time needed to prepare for the transition and divisions within the South Korean polity over the engagement policy. But political pressures in the South for the transfer are likely to prove irresistible. Even a US general, the late Richard G. Stilwell, once commented that the degree of operational control enjoyed by the United States in Korea is ‘‘the most remarkable concession of sovereignty in the entire world’’. Stilwell pointed in particular to the fact that the US commander of the US–South Korean Combined Forces Command ‘‘reports only to U.S. higher authority’’ and would have the technical legal freedom to do so even with respect to the use of nuclear weapons, in contrast to the dual authority over the nuclear trigger in Germany.19 For Lim Dong Won, like many other leading South Koreans, the con- tinuance of US operational control so many years after the Korean war is not only an affront to South Korea’s sovereignty but also an impediment to meaningful dialogue with the North.
South Korea must recover its independent identity as the main player in nego- tiations with North Korea [Lim declared in 1996]. This issue is intrinsically re- lated to the question of recovering the operational control of its military forces 114 SELIG S. HARRISON
from the Commanding General of the U.N. Command. Only with the reversion of operational control will North Korea respect and fear the South. Only then will North Korea genuinely respect South Korea’s authority and capability. Un- less operational control is returned to us, North Korea will continue to confine its approaches to the United States alone and to exclude South Korea as its natural negotiating partner.
Urging on another occasion that wartime operational control ‘‘must be returned as soon as possible’’, Lim said that this would necessarily entail the restructuring of the existing US–South Korean Combined Forces Command along the lines of the US–Japan military arrangements, ‘‘link- ing two separate operational structures on a cooperative basis’’. A con- tinued US force presence in Korea is desirable, he added, emphasizing that the US presence is ‘‘primarily based on the R.O.K.–U.S. Mutual Security Treaty of 1953 and is totally unrelated to the existence or disso- lution of the U.N. Command’’.20 Since the United States and South Korea are reluctant to take the risks that would be involved in replacing the existing armistice machinery, they have brushed aside a series of increasingly conciliatory North Korean scenarios for a reduction of tensions marked by a softened attitude to- ward the size and duration of the US presence. When Kim Il Sung met former US president Jimmy Carter on 16 June 1994, he told him that North Korea was ‘‘not too concerned’’ about a continued US military presence but would like to see it gradually reduced to about 4,000 from the present level of 37,000.21 Two months later, US Ambassador Robert Gallucci was surprised when First Deputy Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju expressed a tolerant attitude toward US forces over the dinner table during their Geneva negotiations on the nuclear freeze agreement. ‘‘He seemed to say that if the United States and North Korea normalized their relations and became friendly, they wouldn’t care much about U.S. forces.’’22 The conclusion of the nuclear freeze agreement in October 1994 led to a series of North Korean proposals for an undefined ‘‘new peace mechanism’’ to replace the Military Armistice Commission and the UN Command. The US government ignored these proposals and has made no effort to explore them with North Korea during the ensuing years. In a meeting with Gen. Ri Chan Bok, the North Korean representative at Panmunjom, on 28 September 1995, I pressed him to explain what sort of ‘‘new mechanism’’ North Korea had in mind. First, he said, the armed forces of the United States and North Korea would set up what might be called a North Korea–United States ‘‘mutual security assurance commis- sion’’. It would consist solely of military officers. Immediately following establishment of the commission, the North Korea–South Korea Joint US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 115
Military Commission negotiated in 1992 but never instituted would begin to operate in parallel with the North Korea–United States commission. The functional role of both commissions would be to prevent incidents in the DMZ that could threaten the peace and to develop arms control and confidence-building arrangements. The purpose of the ‘‘new peace arrangements’’, First Deputy Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju told me a day later, would be to stabilize the North–South status quo militarily. ‘‘The armistice was concluded between two hostile parties’’, Kang said. ‘‘The purpose of the new peace arrangements will be to end adversarial relations and prevent any threat to the peace, whether from the South against the North or the North against the South.’’ Asked whether the US–South Korean Security Treaty could remain in force under the proposed ‘‘new peace arrangements’’, he replied, ‘‘Defi- nitely yes.’’ I observed that ‘‘this is possibly because you don’t want the issue of your mutual security treaty with China to be raised, isn’t that right?’’ He smiled, commenting that ‘‘these are longer-range issues that can be considered in time at the political level’’. As first proposed, the Mutual Security Commission was to be bilateral, consisting of the United States and North Korea. Within a year, North Korea had agreed that South Korea could participate in a trilateral com- mission on equal terms. Similarly, on the issue of a peace treaty, Pyong- yang dropped its longstanding demand for a bilateral US–North Korean treaty on 6 May 2004, offering to discuss a trilateral treaty embracing South Korea. Despite this about-face, the United States has shown no in- terest in pursuing a peace treaty.
US policy options
The process of engagement and reconciliation set in motion by the June 2000 North–South summit has made a reassessment of long-term US goals and policies in the Korean peninsula necessary. To the extent that North–South Korean relations continue to improve and hopes for peace- ful reunification grow in both the North and the South, the United States could well face increasing pressure to affirm its support for peaceful re- unification in terms much more positive and explicit than the 1992 Bush statement discussed earlier: to express regret for its role in the division of the peninsula, and to adapt its military presence in the peninsula to a changing security environment. Visiting Pyongyang on 31 March 1992, Rev. Billy Graham stopped just short of expressing regret in his airport arrival address but displayed a sensitivity to Korean feelings that was missing in the Bush statement. ‘‘Korean unity’’, he declared, ‘‘was a victim of the cold war. Because of 116 SELIG S. HARRISON the competition which existed then between the United States and the former Soviet Union, decisions and compromises were made which di- vided Korea at the thirty-eighth parallel. I share the concern of many Americans that my nation was one of those which had a part in those cold war decisions, and I pray that the Korean people will soon be united peacefully.’’23 During the decades since 1945, the polarization of Korea along Cold War lines constituted a built-in barrier to reunification. Nevertheless, the division of the peninsula, while making Korea itself militarily un- stable, defused the peninsula temporarily as a flashpoint of regional in- stability. The Sino-Japanese competition for dominance in Korea that had persisted throughout history subsided in the face of the entrenched US and Soviet presence in the two Koreas. In the post–Cold War envi- ronment, however, a divided Korea is likely to become a focus of interna- tional conflict involving not only the neighbouring powers but also the United States. For example, if the United States maintains a continuing military presence in the South, China is likely to view the maintenance of a separate North Korea as critical to its security, and the danger of a US–China conflict over Korea will grow, especially if the United States and Japan continue to define the threat from China as a principal raison d’eˆtre for their alliance. The US interest in a stable Northeast Asia would thus be served by the emergence of a strong, reunified Korea that could serve as a neutral buffer state, forestalling a repetition of past Korea- centred major power rivalries in the region. To pursue this interest, the United States would have to reshape its policies in the peninsula so that it does not stand in the way of movement toward a loose confederation, as it does now, while at the same time doing what it can to promote such movement. This would require, above all, a basic redefinition of the role of US forces in Korea that would induce the South to move more rapidly toward accommodation with the North. In its present form, the US military presence sustains a climate of indefinite confrontation. The United States has an open-ended commitment to one side in a civil war. It is providing a massive economic subsidy that enables its ally to minimize the sacrifices that would otherwise be necessary for the mainte- nance of the conflict. The South’s upper- and middle-income minority, in particular, has acquired a vested interest in the status quo. Without its US subsidy, Seoul, which now spends an average of US$13 billion per year for defence, would have to double or triple its military budget to re- place the conventional forces deployed for its defence by the United States, not to mention the much higher outlays that independent nuclear forces would require. In addition to the direct cost of its forces in Korea, US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 117 averaging US$2 billion per year, the United States spends more than US$40 billion annually to maintain the overall US force structure in East Asia and the western Pacific on which its capability to intervene in Korea depends. So long as the South regards this US economic cushion as an entitlement, it will be under no compulsion to pursue a modus vivendi with the North. Despite the end of the Cold War, the role of the US forces in Korea has not changed to keep pace with geopolitical realignments in Korea. The US military presence in the South was a response to the projection of Soviet and Chinese military power on the side of the North. Now Rus- sia no longer has a security commitment to the North. While retaining a nominal security commitment to Pyongyang and keeping up economic aid, China has in reality moved steadily closer to Seoul. Both Moscow and Beijing are increasingly attempting to play the role of honest broker between the North and South. That is what they want the United States to do, and that is what the North also wants the United States to do. What would a redefinition of the US military role mean in concrete terms? In essence, the mission of US forces would no longer be limited to the defence of the South but would be broadened to embrace the de- terrence of aggression by either the North or the South against the other. In its new role as a stabilizer and balancer in Korea, the United States wouldprovidethesecurityumbrellanecessary for stable progress toward a loose confederation, helping promote a climate of mutual trust. Conceivably, US forces could remain for a limited period following the establishment of a confederation. North Korea, for its part, has left such a possibility open. Kim Byong Hong, policy planning chief in the foreign ministry, told me on 7 May 1998 that ‘‘Korea is surrounded by big powers – Russia, China, and Japan. We must think of the impact of the with- drawal of US troops on the balance of power in the region. It is possible that if US troops pull out of Korea, Japan will rearm immediately.’’ A day earlier, Kim Yong Nam, then foreign minister and now chairman of the Supreme People’s Assembly, said more obliquely that ‘‘the United States is standing in the way of a confederation, but it would be in your interests to help us work for one because it would enhance stability in the region, and the United States can advance its interests in both halves of Korea if we are confederated’’. Han Song Ryol, former North Korean deputy representative at the United Nations, went still further over din- ner on 10 May 1997. ‘‘Under certain circumstances,’’ he said, ‘‘depending on your policy, I can imagine US forces stationed in North as well as South Korea.’’ A transition from the existing US military role in Korea to a new role compatible with the promotion of a confederation would necessarily be- 118 SELIG S. HARRISON ginwithaformalendtotheKoreanwar.Thefirststeptowardthisend could be a trilateral peace treaty (the United States, North Korea and South Korea) followed by replacement of the Military Armistice Com- mission with the trilateral Mutual Security Commission proposed by North Korea. After these two interlinked steps are completed, the United States could then promote a separate North–South peace agreement upgrading the 1991 North–South Basic Agreement, urge the North and South to re- activate the Joint North–South Military Commission set up in 1991, and terminate the UN Command. The two peace accords could then be sub- mitted by the governments concerned to the UN Security Council, which would endorse them collectively as constituting the definitive end of the Korean war. In the same resolution, the United Nations could formally approve the termination of the UN Command. The stage would then be set for negotiations within the trilateral com- mission and the North–South Joint Military Commission on arms control and tension reduction measures. To illustrate possible trade-offs, the United States and South Korea could seek an agreement providing for the pullback of forward-deployed North Korean forces with an offensive capability, especially heavy artillery, multiple rocket launchers and ar- mour, out of artillery range of Seoul. In return, US and South Korean forces would also pull back from their existing positions. Given the loca- tion of Seoul, North Korea would pull back further than the United States and South Korea. As the price for an asymmetrical pullback, Washington and Seoul would be prepared to discuss the removal of weapons systems regarded by Pyongyang as offensive in character, such as Apache attack helicopters, together with the partial withdrawal of US forces from the peninsula – including the withdrawal of some or all of the US air forces in Korea to Japan, Guam or Hawaii. South Korean and US military leaders warn that it would not take long for the North to move its forces forward again. For this reason, in negoti- ating such an agreement, Washington and Seoul should insist on two conditions. Both sides should be required to deploy their artillery in the open to facilitate inspection and to maximize the warning time that the South would have in the event of an attack. Equally important, the United States should be permitted to retain those facilities in Korea needed to provide command and control, targeting, and intelligence sup- port of South Korean forces. Since the US–South Korean Security Treaty would not be affected by the proposed accord, the United States would have a legal basis for bringing back its forces if necessary. In order to pursue verifiable agreements with North Korea that would terminate its long-range missile programme and fully roll back the devel- US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 119 opment of nuclear weapons capabilities, the United States would have to offer a partial or complete withdrawal of its forces. But, as observed ear- lier, Pyongyang would not necessarily press for a complete withdrawal if Washington shifts from its adversarial posture to that of an honest broker. The goal of the United States should be to disengage its forces gradu- ally from the Korean civil war over a period not longer than 10 years, whether or not this can be done as part of a negotiated arms control pro- cess. A phased and gradual disengagement would give the South the time to fill in the major gaps in its military capabilities and would strengthen the forces in Seoul seeking an accommodation with Pyongyang. Al- though it is highly desirable and, in my view, feasible to link disengage- ment with arms control trade-offs, especially relating to missile and nu- clear capabilities, this linkage should not be allowed to paralyse US freedom of action. To reinforce arms control arrangements and insure against instability following its force withdrawals, the United States should pursue parallel neutralization agreements with China, Russia and Japan barring the in- troduction of foreign military forces into the peninsula. The initiative would then be left to Seoul and Pyongyang. Washington would have its hopes and its advice but would recede into an unaccustomed posture of detachment, ready to let the two actors make their own mistakes. In the final analysis, such a policy would be a vote of confidence in Korean na- tionalism and in the potential of a unified Korea as a buffer state; a policy giving importance to Korea and Koreans in their own right, at last, rather than as pawns in a never-ending game of great power rivalries. The case for the indefinite continuation of the US military presence in Korea rests on a questionable set of assumptions: first, that US disen- gagement would create a power vacuum; second, that China, Japan and Russia would move into this vacuum, competing for dominance as they did from 1894 to 1905; and, finally, that a reunified Korea without US protection either would seek a military alliance with one of its neigh- bours, probably China, or would develop its own independent nuclear capability. These assumptions exclude the possibility that a reunified Korea could play an independent, non-nuclear buffer role. Yet a variety of factors make this possibility a realistic goal in an emerging regional environment that differs fundamentally from that of a century ago. The critical difference between then and now is that Korea at the turn of the century was not yet politically sensitized and mobilized. Still largely a feudal, rural society with a limited educational infrastructure, it had not achieved the universal literacy that the North and South have to- 120 SELIG S. HARRISON day. It had not developed a broadly based nationalist consciousness and was not yet seeking to assert its identity in the community of nation- states. A powerful spirit of Korean nationalism, aroused by four decades of peculiarly brutal Japanese colonialism and five decades of division, has introduced a new and potentially decisive element into the situation. Nationalism is now a driving force in both the North and the South. It will make any form of unified regime much less vulnerable to foreign manipulation than the politically quiescent and economically underdevel- oped Korea of a century ago. Once the division is ended, in short, there will be no power vacuum for outsiders to fill. Korea will emerge as a power in its own right, making its own decisions concerning the nature and size of its military capabilities on the basis of what others do or do not do. For example, in the absence of some form of regional agreement that would rule out a Japanese nuclear capability and the use of Ameri- can, Chinese and Russian nuclear weapons in Korea, it is possible that a unified Korea would develop an independent nuclear deterrent. But a US disengagement, in itself, need not lead to this outcome. It is precisely because Korean nationalism is so strong that pressures for US disengagement have been building up in recent years and are likely to intensify following a confederation or full unification. The en- during impact of Japanese colonial rule is a stimulus to Korean national- ism. But the United States, too, is a focus of Korean nationalist senti- ment, given the US role in imposing the division of the peninsula in 1945. Throughout the colonial decades, Koreans had looked ahead hope- fully to the moment when the Japanese departed as the occasion for their national entry onto the world stage, only to find themselves trapped be- tween American- and Russian-installed regimes when the moment ar- rived. Reflecting a superpower perspective, the conventional wisdom in the United States during the Cold War was that a balance of power ex- isted in East Asia among the United States, Japan, China and Russia. This thinking lingers even today. But this ‘‘balance’’ exists at the cost of a divided Korea, a cost unacceptable to the Koreans themselves. The assumption that there would be a power vacuum in a reunified Korea if US forces withdraw reflects insensitivity to this new reality of a dynamic Korean nationalism. Similarly, the assumption that Japan, China and Russia would not respect a military neutralization of Korea reveals both a misreading of history and a blindness to the changes that have taken place in Northeast Asia during the past century. In contrast to the European experience, the unification of Korea would not be perceived by its neighbours as inherently threatening. Germany in the first flush of its unification during the nineteenth century was expan- sionist, but, in the case of East Asia, Japan was the expansionist power and Korea the victim of its colonial oppression. Moreover, Korea became US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 121 the focus of external contention a century ago precisely because at that time a power vacuum did exist in Seoul, where the Yi dynasty was col- lapsing. The vulnerability of Korea coincided with a decline of Chinese power that tempted a newly assertive Japan to move into the vacuum. By contrast, there is no such power imbalance between China and Japan today. Neither would be likely to risk a military confrontation over Ko- rea except in the face of the gravest provocation, and it would be much more difficult for either to manipulate internal factional divisions in a unified Korea than it was in the late nineteenth century. A militarily neu- tral Korea would be respected by each of the immediate neighbours if it is also respected by the United States and other extra-regional powers. The argument that a neutral Korea would become a nuclear power must be considered in the context of the ongoing negotiations with North Korea concerning its nuclear weapons programme. If these negotiations collapse and North Korea deploys operational nuclear weapons, support will grow in Japan for a Japanese nuclear weapons programme. The pros- pect of a nuclear-armed Japan would lead in time to a nuclear-armed South Korea and a nuclear-armed unified Korea. Such a nuclear arms race would be difficult to forestall even with a continued US presence and the promised protection of the US nuclear umbrella. No Korean regime is likely to surrender its sovereign nuclear option unless Japan, too, is prepared to do so, especially since Japan, unlike South Korea, has already developed plutonium reprocessing facilities that could be quickly converted to military purposes. If it is possible to head off a nuclear arms race between Japan and Korea, the most promis- ing way to do so would be to negotiate a series of declaratory regional denuclearization agreements that would set the stage for the long-term pursuit of a broader regional nuclear-free zone agreement, such as a de- claratory agreement that would bar the use or deployment of Chinese, Russian, US and Japanese nuclear weapons in Korea. Another such agreement could commit Korea, the United States, China and Russia not to use nuclear weapons against Japan in return for a formal Japanese commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. For the United States, the immediate challenge during the years ahead will be to negotiate a gradual, orderly transition from its present adversa- rial role on one side of a civil war to a more balanced role designed to stabilize North–South relations, not only by moving to a new role as an honest broker between North and South but also by initiating a broader Korean security dialogue with China, Russia and Japan. The central goals of this dialogue should be a four-power agreement not to intervene in Korea with conventional forces and a six-power agreement, with North and South Korean participation, ruling out the manufacture, use or de- ployment of nuclear weapons in Korea. Stable progress toward unifica- 122 SELIG S. HARRISON tion and enduring peace in Korea will be a realistic possibility, in the long run, only if the peninsula can be insulated from the historical rivalries of its powerful neighbours.
Notes
1. Cited by Bruce Cumings, Parallax Visions: Making Sense of American–East Asian Rela- tions at the End of the Century, Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1999, p. 131. 2. Peter Hayes, ‘‘American Nuclear Dilemmas in Korea’’, paper delivered at a conference sponsored by the U.S.–Korean Security Studies Council, 3 December 1987, pp. 14, 43. 3. Selig S. Harrison, Korean Endgame, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002, esp. pp. 215–230. 4. Bob Woodward, Bush at War, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002, p. 340. 5. Ending the North Korean Nuclear Crisis: A Proposal by the Task Force on U.S. Korea Policy, Cosponsored by the Center for International Policy, Washington DC, and the Center for East Asian Studies, University of Chicago, November 2004, p. 9. 6. Kim Dae Jung, ‘‘Post-Cold War ASIA: The Once and Future Korea’’, Foreign Policy, Vol. 85, Spring 1992, p. 45. 7. Selig S. Harrison, The Widening Gulf: Asian Nationalism and American Policy,New York: Free Press, 1978, p. 20. 8. Erik H. Erikson, Identity: Youth and Crisis, New York: W. W. Norton, 1968, pp. 21–22. 9. Personal communication, 8 December 2000. 10. Bernard B. Fall, ‘‘Sociological and Psychological Aspects of Vietnam’s Partition’’, Jour- nal of International Affairs, July 1964, pp. 179–80. 11. Address by President Roh Tae Woo at the opening session of the 147th National As- sembly, Seoul, 11 September 1989, reprinted in Dialogue with North Korea, Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1990, appendix E (61–63). See also ‘‘Korean National Community Unification Formula: An Outline’’, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Seoul, 11 September 1989. 12. Kim Dae Jung, ‘‘The Once and Future Korea’’, p. 47. 13. Hwang Won Tak, who participated in the summit as President Kim Dae Jung’s national security adviser, used this term in briefing Korea specialists in Washington on 17 June 2002. Kim Dae Jung used it at a dinner meeting with Korea specialists at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel, New York, on 7 September 2000. 14. For the text of the 14 June joint statement by Kim Jong Il and Kim Dae Jung referring to ‘‘common factors’’, see Associated Press dispatch in the New York Times, 15 June 2000, p. 15. 15. Cited by US Ambassador Donald Gregg in an address before the Korean Council on Foreign Relations, Seoul, 21 November 1990. 16. Soon Sung Cho, Korea in World Politics, 1940–50: An Evaluation of American Respon- sibility, Berkeley: University of California Press, 1967. See also Cho Soon Sung, ‘‘Hanguk ui yangdan kwa miguk ui chaegim’’ [‘‘The Division of Korea and America’s Responsibility’’], Sasanggye, July 1960, p. 57. 17. The unpublished text of the Boutros-Ghali letter was made available to me by the UN Secretariat. 18. ‘‘Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation Secretary General Lim Dong Won Discusses ‘The Four Party Meeting and a Comprehensive Peace Agreement’ ’’, Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation on Record, No. 3, July 1996, pp. 6–7. This is the text of a presentation at US POLICY AND THE LEGACY OF 1945 123
the Unification Forum of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University, Seoul, 14 June 1996. 19. Richard Stilwell, ‘‘Challenge and Response in the Northeast Asia of the 1980’s: The Military Balance’’, in R. Foster (ed.), Strategy and Security in Northeast Asia,New York: Crane Russak, 1979, p. 99. 20. ‘‘Kim Dae Jung Peace Foundation Secretary General Lim Dong Won Discusses ‘The Four Party Meeting and a Comprehensive Peace Agreement’ ’’, p. 8. 21. Jimmy Carter, interview by the author, Atlanta, 14 June 2000. 22. Robert Gallucci, interview by the author, Washington DC, 16 June 2000. 23. Airport arrival statement by Dr Billy Graham, 31 March 1992, p. 2. 124
7 The DPRK economic crisis and the ROK security dilemma
Suk Lee
An interesting consequence of the economic crisis in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, commonly known as North Korea) in the 1990s is that the two Koreas have been getting closer than ever be- fore. According to the Ministry of Unification of the Republic of Korea (ROK, commonly known as South Korea), the South has provided more than 30 per cent of the international aid to the North since 2000, the number of visitors between the two Koreas has increased 10-fold since 1997, and trade volume doubled between 1998 and 2002. It is now quite usual for the two Koreas to engage not only in talks but also in concrete mutual activities ranging from economic affairs to culture and sports exchange. In the sphere of security, however, this closeness has not operated as expected. Around 60 per cent of the ROK population believe it is still probable the North may invade the South.1 The security environment on the Korean peninsular has also worsened since the DPRK nuclear is- sue surfaced again in 2002. Although the ROK has made various efforts to resolve the issue peacefully, there has been no significant break- through yet. In the ROK this discrepancy between security and other areas has generated and intensified the debate on its North Korean pol- icy. The debate is so broad and intense that politicians and even ordinary citizens emotively criticize those with different views as ‘‘pro-DPRK left- wing supporters’’ or ‘‘stupid conservative hardliners’’ – phrases that have long been taboo in public.
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 125
This chapter reviews the debate and explores its security implications. The discussion differentiates two major issues implied by the debate: (1) the DPRK economic crisis in the 1990s as the main factor creating a new security environment between the two Koreas; (2) different ROK ap- proaches to the new environment. The remainder of the chapter is orga- nized as follows. First I examine the causation, features and impacts of the DPRK economic crisis, discussing its security implications. I then study two different ROK approaches to the changing security environ- ment since the DPRK economic crisis and review how they have influ- enced practical policies. The final section concludes.
The DPRK economic crisis and new security environment betweenthetwoKoreas
A significant feature of the DPRK macroeconomic performance over the past six decades is that all output variables have a ‘‘reverse U-shape’’ trend over time. They increased rapidly in the early development stage, but soon stagnated in the 1970s–1980s, and finally declined sharply in the 1990s. For instance, annual industrial production grew on average by 25 per cent in 1946–1975, decelerating to 7.5 per cent in 1975–1989, and finally falling on average by 23 per cent per annum in 1993–1996 (see Figure 7.1). Annual grain production also increased on average by 4.7 per cent in 1946–1974, but soon stagnated at 2 per cent per annum during
Figure 7.1 DPRK industrial production, 1946–1996. Sources: Ministry of Unification, The North Korean Economic Statistics Collec- tion, Seoul, 1996 (in Korean); and DPRK/UNDP, ‘‘Thematic Round Table Meet- ing on Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Protection for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)’’, Geneva, 28–29 May 1998. 126 SUK LEE
Figure 7.2 DPRK grain production, 1946–1996. Sources: Ministry of Unification, The North Korean Economic Statistics Collec- tion, Seoul, 1996 (in Korean), and DPRK, Implementation of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights – Second Periodic Reports Submitted by State Parties under Articles 16 and 17 of the Covenant, United Na- tions Economic and Social Council, 9 April 2002.
1974–1993, and then dramatically fell by an annual average of 35 per cent in 1993–1996 (see Figure 7.2). An effective way to explain this trend is to assume that the DPRK economy has faced long-term productivity stagnation and resource con- traction. When resources were relatively abundant in the early develop- ment stage, the DPRK central planners may have been able to increase total output rapidly by coercive mobilization. Despite this, productivity increased little and the output growth rate decelerated as available re- sources shrank. In particular, as available resources were exhausted and productivity began to fall, output also began to fall. This has two implica- tions for the DPRK economic crisis in the 1990s. First, the main factor that brought about the crisis was the country’s increasing inability to mobilize economic resources and arrest falling productivity. Second, this factor was not unique in the 1990s but had been there at least since the 1970s–1980s.
The DPRK economic crisis in the 1990s: Causation and pattern
According to official DPRK statistics, the economic crisis started in 1994 when gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 23 per cent (see Table 7.1). This output fall was initiated by the industrial sector, whose production Table 7.1 DPRK macroeconomic performance and population: Official data, 1990–2000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 GDP (US$ million) Total – – 20,875 20,935 15,421 12,802 10,588 – – 10,275a 10,593a Agriculture – – 7,807 8,227 6,431 5,223 4,775 – – – – Industry – – 4,551 4,689 3,223 2,228 1,556 – – – – Construction – – 1,315 1,256 910 819 508 – – – – Other – – 7,160 6,762 4,858 4,532 6,748 – – – –
Grain production (million MT) Total 9.10 8.90 8.80 9.00 7.08 3.50 2.50 2.69 3.20 4.28 3.26 Rice þ maize 8.38 8.29 8.17 8.69 6.66 3.37 2.24 2.58 – – –
Total population (’000) – – – 21,214 – – – – – 22,754 22,963 Crude birth rate (per ’000) 22.0 – – 20.0 – – 20.1 – 18.2 17.8 17.5 Crude death rate (per ’000) 5.9 – – 5.5 6.8 – 6.8 – 9.3 8.9 8.8 Life expectancy (years) – – – 72.7 – – 70.1 – – 66.8 67.1 Notes: a GNP not GDP. Sources: GDP (or GNP) – DPRK/UNDP, ‘‘Thematic Round Table Meeting on Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Pro- tection for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)’’, Geneva, 28–29 May 1998, and DPRK, Core Document Form- ing Part of the Reports of State Parties, United Nations Human Rights Instruments, 24 June 2002; grain production – DPRK, Implementation of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights – Second Periodic Reports Submitted by State Parties under Articles 16 and 17 of the Covenant, United Nations Economic and Social Council, 9 April 2002; population and others: DPRK, Core Document Forming Part of the Reports of State Parties,andImplementation of the International Cove- nant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights – Second Periodic Reports; Jonathan Watts, ‘‘Pyongyang: A Starving Nation’’, Lancet, 353, 9166, 22 May 1999; and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, ‘‘Status of Public Health – Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 46, No. 24, April 1997; M. Noland, S. Robinson and 127 T. Wang, ‘‘Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures’’, Institute for International Economics Working Paper 99-2, 1999. 128 SUK LEE fell by 30 per cent (industry þ construction), exceeding the 20 per cent decline in agricultural production. Interestingly, the former induced the latter. For instance, owing to the industrial stagnation, chemical fertilizer supply dropped by half, which in turn caused grain production failure in the agricultural sector. This pattern of crisis has since intensified. By 1996 industrial production had fallen to one-third of the 1993 level, and fertil- izer supply dropped to almost one-tenth of the level in the early 1990s (Table 7.2). Consequently grain production collapsed to just 2.5 million metric tonnes in 1996, less than one-third of the early 1990s’ level, bring- ing the entire country to the brink of starvation. Indeed, the country’s official crude death rate rose to 9.3 per 1,000 in 1998 from 5.5 in 1993, demonstrating that the economic crisis actually developed into famine in the mid-1990s. This crisis eased little until 2000. GDP was still half the early 1990s’ level and grain production was down to one-third. The offi- cial death rate did not fall significantly from its peak in 1998, either. The ‘‘DPRK economic crisis’’ describes this sequence of economic and social events during 1994–2000 in which industrial stagnation triggered the col- lapse of agricultural and food production, eventually generating famine and causing the whole economy to collapse. How did the industrial stagnation leading to the economic crisis take place? The DPRK economy suffered an external shock in the late 1980s. The breakdown of international socialist economies greatly damaged its ability to import foreign resources. Foreign trade and imports of basic economic inputs, oil in particular, for which the country has depended entirely on foreign sources, declined for seven consecutive years from 1990 to 1996. In consequence, the country’s oil consumption in 1996 was less than half the 1990 level (see Table 7.2). This suggests that the DPRK’s industrial stagnation leading to the economic crisis in the 1990s was caused primarily by the breakdown of international socialist econo- mies in the late 1980s and its adverse impact on national resource mobili- zation. What should be noted, however, is that the DPRK had already been facing difficulties in mobilizing such inputs as oil, machines and ad- vanced technology since the former USSR stopped providing economic aid and changed its trade with the DPRK to a commercial, though still favourable, basis in the 1960s.2 Because of the difficulties the DPRK be- gan to borrow from Western countries to import those goods, before ulti- mately defaulting on the international loans because of hard currency shortages in the 1970s. Although the external shock in the late 1980s greatly exacerbated the country’s resource mobilization problem, the problem itself had therefore existed since the 1970s. A lack of data makes rigorous studies of DPRK productivity trends in the 1990s difficult. Nonetheless, all primary studies suggest that the coun- try has suffered from significant productivity decline at least since the Table 7.2 DPRK macroeconomic performance: Outside estimates, 1990–2000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total trade volume (US$ billion) 46.4 27.2 26.6 26.4 21.1 20.5 19.8 21.8 14.4 14.8 19.7 Oil consumption/per day (’000 barrels) 72.1 62.1 53.5 43.9 38.3 33.5 29.4 28.6 – – – Fertilizer consumption (’000 MT) 832 811 783 766 323 104 93 171 157 253 256
Sources: Trade volume – Bank of Korea, North Korea’s GNI Estimation (in Korean), various years; oil consumption – International Energy Agency, Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, Paris: IEA, various years; fertilizer consumption – Food and Agriculture Organization Statistical Database. 129 130 SUK LEE
Table 7.3 Yang’s estimation of the DPRK’s productivity: Total output function (%) 1966–70 1971–77 1978–86 1987–90
Average growth rate in GNP 10.2 12.1 7.1 5.2 Total factor productivity 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.6 Source: Yang Moon-soo, The Structure of the North Korean Economy, Seoul: Seoul National University Press, 2001 (in Korean).
Table 7.4 Lee’s estimation of the DPRK’s productivity: Grain production func- tion (%) 1961–1970 1971–1980 1981–1990 1991–2000
Average growth rate in 1.60 2.11 0.95 5.04 grain production Total factor productivity 0.80 1.40 0.44 3.29 Source:LeeSuk,The DPRK Famine of 1994–2000: Occurrence, Impacts and Fea- tures, Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification, 2004 (in Korean).
1970s–1980s.3 Using the total output function developed by Cho,4 for in- stance, Yang claims that DPRK total factor productivity (TFP) has been negative since 1978 (Table 7.3). Lee also argues that TFP in grain pro- duction has been negative since 1961 and declined particularly sharply in the 1990s (Table 7.4). Although these estimates are controversial, they are all based on currently available data and studies. It does not therefore seem irrational to argue that the DPRK economy has suffered a productivity decline since the 1970s–1980s. In short, the DPRK has faced an increasing inability to mobilize re- sources and prevent falling productivity since the 1970s, which was greatly exacerbated by the breakdown of international socialist economies in the late 1980s. It was this inability that generated the following sequence of social and economic events between 1994 and 2000: industrial produc- tion decline ) food and agricultural production collapse ) rising death rate ) famine ) overall economic and social crisis.
Impacts of the economic crisis
It is not unusual for a socialist economy to experience falls in output and even famine. Nevertheless, the DPRK economic crisis in the 1990s has DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 131 many interesting features that differentiate it from its historical counter- parts in other socialist economies. Of those features, the following should be particularly noted. First, the severity or magnitude of the crisis is immense. Lee shows that the DPRK population loss between 1994 and 2000 was in the range 580,000–690,000 on the basis of official population statistics or 630,000– 1,100,000 million on the basis of the DPRK child nutrition survey data.5 These figures represent 3–6 per cent of the total DPRK population, indi- cating that in the 1990s the country faced one of the greatest famines in human history.6 Furthermore, the DPRK famine lasted for longer than any other and coincided with an unprecedented decline in industrial and agricultural output. It lasted for at least six or seven years, and may still be continuing. In addition, GDP halved during the famine period. Secondly, the main factors that created the crisis are those that have dogged the DPRK economic system for a long time. In many other so- cialist countries, for instance, famine was caused either by sudden institu- tional changes such as collectivization or by short-term adverse shocks such as bad weather. The famine therefore ended relatively quickly as the economy adapted to new institutions or as the impact of adverse shocks faded. By contrast, the DPRK famine was caused by structural economic problems: resource shortages and productivity stagnation. Un- less the current economic structure changes to resolve the problems, the famine will not end and, even if it did, it could recur at any time. Thirdly, the main victims of the crisis were in the urban/industrial sector. In many other socialist economies, economic crisis and famine centred on the rural/agricultural sector. Farmers were relatively poorer, politically unimportant and excluded from the government protection system, and they had to surrender their production for industrial devel- opment. Hence they tended to be the main victims of adverse economic shocks. In the DPRK, however, the opposite was true. It was urban/ industrial employees who became unemployed as increasing resource shortages forced factories and companies to stop operating. Rural farm- ers continued to work the land, their most important input factor. It was also urban/industrial employees who suffered more from food shortages. According to DPRK food refugees in China, the north-eastern part of the DPRK – mainly the Hamgyong provinces – experienced the worst food situation during the famine (see Table 7.5). The 2002 DPRK child nutri- tion survey also showed that this region had the highest rate of chroni- cally malnourished children (see Table 7.6). Note that this region was the most urbanized in the DPRK outside politically important special cities such as Pyongyang. This suggests that the DPRK famine was more severe where urbanization was higher, with the exception of special cities. 132 SUK LEE
Table 7.5 DPRK food refugee interviews: Where are the food shortages most severe? (%) Among provinces Urban vs. rural
S. Hamgyong N. Hamgyong Other Urban Rural Othera 53.1 19.7 27.1 75.6 1.5 23.9
Notes: N ¼ 1,694. a Other means ‘‘similar’’ or ‘‘don’t know’’. Source: Korean Buddhist Sharing Movement, ‘‘The Food Crisis of North Korea: Witnessed by 1,694 Food Refugees’’, Seoul, December 1998.
Indeed, DPRK food refugees predominantly said that the food situation was more severe in urban areas, and many outside observers visiting the country during the famine period confirm this fact.7 The implication of these three features is stark: the DPRK economic crisis is ‘‘regime threatening’’. The crisis resulted from the structural weakness of the DPRK economy, hitting urban residents and industrial employees, who comprised about 70 per cent of the total population. This group formed the main supporters of the regime, and therefore
Table 7.6 Urbanization and chronic malnourishment of children in the DPRK % urban population % stunted children (31 Aug. 1999) (2002)
Municipality (most urbanized) Pyongyang 92 27 Gaesung 65 45 Nampo 82 23 North-east (more urbanized) South Hamgyong 69 46 North Hamgyong 78 43 Ryanggang 79 47 South-west (least urbanized) South Hwanhae 51 39 North Hwanhae 60 39 DPRK 71 39 Sources: DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics, ‘‘Report on the DPRK Nutrition Assessment 2002’’, Pyongyang, November 2002; and FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Re- port: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, 8 November 1999. DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 133 ignoring the problem and doing nothing or making marginal and tactical policy changes were not an option for the DPRK regime. In fact, the re- gime has attempted many unexpected fundamental policy changes to mit- igate the crisis. Above all, the DPRK has concentrated its political and diplomatic ef- forts on securing more cash and food from abroad. In 1995 it approached its lifelong enemies, including the ROK, Japan and the United States, for emergency food aid and made a consolidated appeal for international humanitarian aid. By 1997 most of the country, except those militarily sensitive regions that border the ROK, was open to international aid agencies, which were permitted to open offices in Pyongyang. It also re- sumed peace talks with the ROK, which eventually led to the first South– North Korean summit meeting in 2000. By 2001 the DPRK had made the first diplomatic ties with many Western donor countries, particularly Eu- ropean Union countries such as the United Kingdom. It even hinted that the country could trade its military gains such as the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles for hard currency to boost its agricultural production and revive the economy.8 Together with these political and diplomatic efforts, a wide range of economic reforms have been implemented. In 1995–1996, local govern- ments were empowered to carry out foreign trade independently and so feed the population. In 1998, the property rights of cooperative farms were greatly expanded by the New Socialist Constitution, and corre- sponding changes were made in administrative organizations. In 2000– 2002, successive reform measures, including an emphasis on ‘‘earning revenue (profit)’’ and the decentralization of economic planning, were applied to state-owned enterprises, opening the way for them to operate not only according to the state plan but also in the free market. Finally, a reform policy was announced in July 2002 that would integrate the free market with the planned sector. Existing farmers’ markets were consoli- dated into bigger, comprehensive and legalized markets, and the official price system was adjusted to market levels.
New security environment between the two Koreas
In economic terms, the DPRK crisis has clear causes, impacts and re- sponses. In inter-Korean security terms, however, it may not be so easy to comprehend. Until the early 1990s the security environment between the two Koreas was rather simple. They had totally different social systems, were con- vinced about their own systems, and were reluctant to recognize each other’s government and political systems. Peace was maintained primar- 134 SUK LEE ily by the military balance. Both Koreas were heavily militarized and each government maintained firm control over the population within its jurisdiction. There were some attempts to improve relations, including family reunions, cultural exchanges and political talks, but these were ir- regular and transient and failed to make any real progress. This environment has changed significantly since the DPRK economic crisis of the 1990s. Perhaps the most important change is the possible in- stability of the DPRK regime. Until the mid-1990s, it was almost unthink- able that the DPRK regime could be destabilized by domestic factors. However, as hungry people looking for food and incomes began to travel without the government’s permission, the DPRK leadership itself recog- nized that the economic crisis was threatening the stability of the regime. In December 1996, for instance, Kim Jong Il warned that such population movements were causing chaos and disorder in the country and ordered the government immediately to take all necessary action to prevent them.9 From the ROK perspective, the possible instability of the DPRK re- gime has led to the emergence of two new security issues. First, destabili- zation of the DPRK regime could worsen military uncertainty on the peninsular. Secondly, if the DPRK regime collapsed, this could lead to the reunification of the two Koreas, which is the ultimate goal of the ROK’s North Korean policy but at thesametimewouldimposeimmense financial burdens. Both issues are sufficiently important and relevant to change the entire relationship between the two Koreas. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in the North is another important change in inter-Korean relations. Up to 1 million famine deaths in the North are unacceptable to any nation, and particularly to the ROK, which regards the peninsula as ‘‘one nation’’. Given the longstanding an- tagonism between the ROK and the DPRK, however, the manner and pattern of ROK engagement to end the crisis might be considered pro- vocative by the DPRK, thus adversely affecting the security environment between the two Koreas. This possibility is clearly illustrated by the two most pressing humani- tarian issues: DPRK food refugees and human rights. The number of DPRK food refugees and defectors entering the ROK has been dramati- cally increasing since 1998.10 On the basis of both humanitarian and ‘‘one nation’’ principles, the ROK has tried to accept all the refugees. The DPRK, conversely, tends to regard the refugees as traitors and therefore perceives the ROK policy as ‘‘antagonistic’’. Furthermore, as the number of refugees in the ROK, China and other countries has increased, the DPRK human rights issue has increasingly attracted international atten- tion. Refugees have provided graphic information about the violation of human rights in the DPRK. From the ROK perspective, this issue must DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 135 be dealt with by the two Koreas and international society in an appropri- ate manner, which the DPRK also tends to consider as ‘‘antagonistic’’. In this respect, the DPRK humanitarian crisis has appeared not simply as a humanitarian issue but also as an important security issue between the two Koreas. Finally, the DPRK economic crisis and famine have changed the way the two Koreas engage with each other. Until the early 1990s, the two parties undertook practically no mutual activities. They engaged in few meetings or talks and little trade. But this situation has completely changed since the late 1990s. The ROK now considers it necessary to en- gage in any kind of mutual activity with the DPRK in order to ease the humanitarian crisis and change the country for the better. The DPRK also considers it necessary to engage with the ROK to obtain additional funds and food. Disengagement may therefore be difficult for both coun- tries. Hence, security issues between the two Koreas must now also be discussed as part of this engagement.
ROK approaches to the new security environment: Conservatism vs. engagement
The ROK responded to the changing security environment in two ways: the conservative approach and the engagement approach. The former dominated ROK North Korean policy under the Kim Young Sam gov- ernment in the mid-1990s whereas the latter has shaped it since the Kim Dae Jung government in the late-1990s.
North Korean policy under the Kim Young Sam government
When the DPRK plunged into economic crisis in the early 1990s, the ROK political landscape was also changing. In 1993, Kim Young Sam, a civilian politician, was elected as the new president. This civilian-led gov- ernment embarked on social, economic and political reforms. The Kim Young Sam government considered existing North Korean policy to be dominated by the ‘‘Cold War’’ atmosphere, which was preventing any significant breakthrough in South–North relations. It therefore launched various DPRK-friendly policies, including proposals for food aid and re- patriation of North Korean prisoners. This attempt soon faded, however, when the DPRK failed to recognize the Kim Young Sam government and made no reciprocal gestures. ROK food aid proposals were immediately rejected and the return of North Korean prisoners was propagandized as a glorious victory over the South. Moreover, when the ROK refused to express its condolences at the death of Kim Il Sung in 1994, the DPRK 136 SUK LEE characterized the Kim Young Sam government as being as anti-national and fascist as its predecessors. Following these incidents, the Kim Young Sam government’s view of the North swiftly degenerated as the DPRK economic situation worsened. This view of the North was based on the following assumptions or perceptions. First, the DPRK economy had failed and, given the breakdown of in- ternational socialist economies, the DPRK regime was soon likely to collapse.11 Secondly, considering the authoritarian nature of the DPRK regime, voluntary change was unlikely. Thirdly, although the DPRK re- gime was weakened by the economic crisis, the military threat was no smaller. On the contrary, the DPRK regime might attempt to increase military tensions for domestic purposes and develop additional military programmes, including nuclear weapons. The Kim Young Sam government’s North Korean policy thus evolved on the basis of these perceptions. The primary target of the policy was to prevent the military and political tensions from worsening, to induce change in the DPRK and to prepare for its ultimate collapse. A two-track suite of measures was adopted. If the DPRK attempted to increase ten- sion between the two Koreas, the ROK would first seek resolution by dialogue. If that failed, the ROK would send a clear message that such an attempt would invite retaliation by all means. For instance, when the DPRK nuclear issue first emerged in 1993–1994, the initial ROK stance was to engage in talks with the North. The ROK offered to provide capi- tal and technology in return for DPRK guarantees of transparent nuclear activities. But the DPRK ignored this offer and commenced negotiations with the United States, following which the ROK immediately demanded that the United States not negotiate but apply pressure on the North to give up its nuclear ambitions. It also warned the DPRK that its ambitions invited retaliation from the whole world.12 To induce change in the DPRK, other similar measures were em- ployed. The ROK offered humanitarian aid and economic cooperation, but demanded corresponding changes from the DPRK. For instance, the North asked the ROK for emergency food aid in early 1995. The ROK immediately announced that it would provide any amount of rice, even importing it from other countries if necessary. However, when the first ROK food aid was delivered to the North, the DPRK authorities forced the ship to fly the DPRK flag upon entering the harbour and detained the crew on spying charges. The DPRK later issued an official apology for this ‘‘mistake’’, but after this incident the ROK began to condemn the DPRK for seeking international food aid while still spending heavily on the military sector. The ROK also demanded that neighbouring countries consult with it when they provided economic aid to the DPRK. DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 137
Not surprisingly, there was little progress in South–North relations during the Kim Young Sam government. In fact, the situation worsened, with little contact between the two parties (see Table 7.7 below). Conse- quently, the ROK was unable to respond effectively to the new security environment caused by the DPRK economic crisis. Moreover, the ROK contributed little to mitigating the DPRK humanitarian crisis. As shown by Table 7.8 below, ROK humanitarian aid to the DPRK was on average less than 10 per cent of total international aid in 1996–1998 when the famine reached its peak. This policy was completely at odds with the con- cept of ‘‘one nation’’. Furthermore, the ROK surrendered any leverage to influence or communicate with the DPRK. Because the ROK linked its economic cooperation to political returns, the DPRK was reluctant and even refused to cooperate. The ROK policy was also vulnerable to domestic public opinion. It was reversed too frequently and too suddenly, preventing any policy measures from functioning properly. The abrupt ROK policy changes before and after the ‘‘DPRK flag’’ incident illustrate this situation.
North Korean policy under the Kim Dae Jung government
ROK North Korean policy underwent a fundamental change in 1998 when Kim Dae Jung, a lifelong political rival of Kim Young Sam, was elected as president. The new government was aware that its predeces- sor’s policies had been based on false assumptions or perceptions about the DPRK. Hence the change began with the basic perceptions of the DPRK, which were completely different from those of the former gov- ernment. First, it had been neither wise nor desirable to assume the DPRK re- gime would collapse in the near future. Despite the economic crisis, the DPRK regime had managed to survive, and there was no reason to be- lieve that it would collapse soon. Even if it did collapse, it was uncertain whether the collapse would lead to unification. It was also questionable whether the unification was desirable to both Koreas in the face of such enormous economic gaps. The ROK would be forced to finance reunifi- cation, despite suffering its own economic problems after the financial crisis in the late 1990s. To the ROK, therefore, the most realistic assump- tion was that the DPRK regime would endure for the near future and thus the regime had to be faced, regardless of its preference. Secondly, given the economic crisis in the North, the DPRK regime was likely to change for the better to ensure its survival. The isolated and aggressive regime had appealed for international aid and opened its country to international aid agencies. This suggested that the ROK could 138 SUK LEE influence the DPRK by providing economic cooperation and humanitar- ian aid to help it change from within. Thirdly, it was unwise to assume that the DPRK military and political threat was reduced because of the economic crisis. On the other hand, it was equally unwise to assume that the economic crisis would encourage the DPRK to seek to overthrow and unite with the ROK militarily and politically. The ROK had to accept that the DPRK regime may have felt threatened by the outside world, and that this external threat intensified as the economic situation worsened. The most realistic option for the ROK was therefore not only to respond clearly to DPRK military and political threats but also, at the same time, to make efforts to create a new security environment in which the DPRK did not feel under intensi- fied external threat. Based on these new perceptions or assumptions, the direction of ROK North Korean policy changed dramatically. The first and foremost change was in ROK economic cooperation, which was freed from the short-term political and military situation between the two Koreas. ROK economic cooperation no longer demanded corresponding political returns from the DPRK. The Kim Dae Jung government understood the inevitable fluctuations in the short-term political and military situation. At the same time, however, it also believed that ongoing economic cooperation bytheROKwouldhelpgeneratelong-termpeacebetweenthetwoKo- reas. Cooperation would make the DPRK economy more dependent on the South, ease the humanitarian crisis, help the two Koreas towards reconciliation, and boost human and cultural exchanges to increase mutual understanding. On this basis, the Kim Dae Jung government increased economic cooperation, in spite of short-term political and mili- tary conflicts. This change of policy direction was soon followed by two related changes. On the one hand, the government abolished its de facto monop- oly on DPRK issues and allowed the private sectors to engage freely with their DPRK counterparts. This change facilitated effective ROK eco- nomic cooperation and humanitarian aid. In addition, the government multiplied the channels and topics of communication with the DPRK, which ensured that a minimum level of communication was maintained. For instance, when political and military talks failed, economic and cul- tural talks would continue and thus substitute for and even revive the former. This new North Korean policy under the Kim Dae Jung government was widely known as the ‘‘Sunshine Policy’’ or engagement approach. The results of this approach were impressive. Between 1998 and 2002, ROK–DPRK trade more than doubled, the number of mutual visitors DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 139
Table 7.7 Trends in ROK–DPRK economic, social and cultural cooperation, 1996–2002 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Trade Volume (US$ million)a 252 308 222 333 425 403 641 Number of items 258 365 449 488 578 549 572 Number of companies 319 356 419 516 536 506 432 Number of visitors From DPRK 0 0 0 62 706 191 1,052 To DPRK 146 1,015 3,317 5,599 7,280 8,551 12,825 Number of joint projects Economic 1 6 15 16 18 23 25 Social and cultural 2 3 8 13 18 24 31 Notes: a Trade volume includes non-commercial trade such as ROK economic aid to the North. Source: ROK Ministry of Unification, Monthly Report Inter-Korean Interchange and Cooperation, various issues (in Korean). quadrupled, and the number of joint projects almost tripled (see Table 7.7). ROK humanitarian aid increased rapidly to 38.5 per cent of total international aid in 2000 (see Table 7.8). This increase was initiated by both the government and private sectors. ROK private aid rose to US$65 million in 2001 from just US$1.6 million in 1996, reflecting the in- creasing interest in humanitarian aid to the DPRK among South Korean
Table 7.8 Trends in ROK humanitarian aid to the DPRK, 1996–2002 (US$ mil- lion) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
ROK aid Government 3.05 26.67 11.00 28.25 78.63 70.45 83.75 Private 1.55 20.56 20.85 18.63 35.13 64.94 51.17 Total 4.60 47.23 31.85 46.88 113.76 1,345.39 134.92 International aid 97.65 263.50 301.99 359.88 181.77 357.25 257.68 Total aid 102.25 310.73 333.84 406.76 295.53 492.64 392.60 ROK aid as % 4.5 15.2 9.5 11.6 38.5 27.5 34.0 of total aid
Source: ROK Ministry of Unification, Monthly Report Inter-Korean Interchange and Cooperation, various issues (in Korean). 140 SUK LEE citizens. Against the background of intensified economic and social ties, the two Koreas held regular government-level talks, eventually leading to the first South–North summit meeting in 2000. These figures make two points about the engagement approach: (1) it played a positive role in easing the DPRK humanitarian crisis; and (2) it gave the ROK effective leverage, by increasing economic ties between the two Koreas, to influence the DPRK. Despite this success, the engage- ment approach failed to lead to progress in political and military relations between the two Koreas. In 1998, during the Kim Dae Jung government, theDPRKtest-firedamedium-range missile that flew over Japan and it conducted submarine incursions and infiltrations against the ROK. The North provoked an armed naval altercation with the ROK, detained an ROK tourist on spying charges, and threatened a long-range missile test in 1999. Furthermore, the current DPRK nuclear issue finally emerged in 2002. These incidents all took place while the ROK was increasing eco- nomic cooperation with the DPRK. The engagement approach therefore faced several fundamental questions under the Kim Dae Jung govern- ment. First of all, there was debate over whether ROK economic cooperation could generate long-term peace between the two Koreas. If the engage- ment approach was correct, the DPRK military threat should have dimin- ished as ROK economic cooperation increased. But it did not. Secondly, it was questioned whether the ROK leverage, using intensified economic and social ties between the two Koreas, was actually valid. For instance, if a reduction in ROK economic cooperation drew a corresponding DPRK response it could lead to a chain reaction of reduced ROK eco- nomic cooperation and worsening ROK–DPRK relations. As a conse- quence the engagement approach could collapse completely. It seemed unlikely that an ROK government based on the engagement approach wouldtakepolicymeasurestorisksuch an untenable position. Finally, the effectiveness of ROK economic cooperation in addressing the hu- manitarian crisis was also debated.
The ROK security dilemma
Unfortunately the Kim Dae Jung government did not fully answer these questions, and thus the debate over the engagement approach continued under the Roh Moo Hyun government. The opponents of the engage- ment approach argued that ROK economic cooperation did not generate peace but simply gave the DPRK regime a chance to recover its strength. Assuming the DPRK regime continued to threaten the ROK, this im- plied that the engagement approach was undermining the security envi- ronment between the two Koreas. Some were even suspicious that ROK DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 141 economic cooperation provided material opportunities for the DPRK re- gime to develop its nuclear programme, generating the present nuclear crisis.
The Kim Dae Jung government’s Sunshine Policy was intended to maintain peace in the Korean peninsular by increasing South–North economic coopera- tion and the South’s aid and thus changing the North . . . . In reality, however, only military build-up by nuclear means was systematically carried out in the North. The Sunshine Policy, which was supposed to alleviate the North Kor- eans’ suffering and improve their living conditions, had only such adverse effects as boosting the North Korean elites’ faith in the Kim Jong Il regime and caus- ing domestic conflicts and anti-US sentiments in the South, using the slogan of national cooperation.13
Opponents of engagement also argued that the ROK was unable to change the DPRK using its leverage of increasing economic ties between the two Koreas. It was argued that those supporting the engagement approach had no real intention of changing the DPRK, but rather sought an excuse to provide the DPRK with economic aid. Supporters and opponents of engagement also debated DPRK human- itarian issues. Supporters emphasized two points: (1) practical coopera- tion with the DPRK government was necessary to improve the human rights situation; and (2) the most important human rights issue in the DPRK was the right to survive. Hence they argued that more moderate and indirect economic measures would work better to improve the DPRK human rights situation. If more assertive and political measures were adopted, the DPRK government would withdraw, not only damag- ing ROK–DPRK relations but also undermining the DPRK human rights situation. By contrast, opponents of engagement argued that the ROK should address this issue directly with the DPRK in a clear manner, mak- ing the link with ROK economic cooperation if necessary. Opponents also criticized the engagement approach for demonstrating little interest in forcing the human rights issue. These debates were led by major newspapers, the main opposition party and conservative non-governmental organizations, including those of DPRK defectors in the ROK, all of which influenced ROK public opinion about DPRK issues. Consequently, the ROK population was somewhat polarized into either supporting or opposing the engagement approach. Survey data from the Korea Institute for National Unification show that in 2003 around 54 per cent of the ROK population had a posi- tive (‘‘should help’’ or ‘‘should cooperate’’) attitude towards the DPRK whereas around 41 per cent had a negative (‘‘should be vigilant’’ or ‘‘en- emy’’) attitude.14 142 SUK LEE
The point is that both the conservative approach and the engagement approach raised some fundamental questions of appropriateness that have not been fully answered. Thus, whatever North Korean policy the government chooses is likely to provoke another intense debate. In this sense the ROK has yet to finalize its own appropriate policy framework in response to the new security environment following the DPRK eco- nomic crisis. This may be the most serious security dilemma the ROK has faced since the DPRK economic crisis.
Concluding remarks
This chapter has assessed the security implications of the DPRK eco- nomic crisis in the 1990s and reviewed ROK responses to the changing security environment between the two Koreas. The main findings of the chapter can be summarized as follows. First, the DPRK economic crisis was regime threatening and thus the DPRK government responded actively to it. As a result, the security en- vironment between the two Koreas was increasingly characterized by: (1) the possible instability of the DPRK regime; (2) a humanitarian crisis in the North; (3) a necessary mutual engagement between the two Koreas. Second, the ROK responded to the changing security environment in two ways: the conservative approach and the engagement approach. Both approaches were different in their perceptions of the DPRK and in their proposed directions and measures for ROK North Korean policy. These differences have made it difficult for the ROK to establish a con- solidated and effective policy framework to respond to the changing se- curity environment on the Korean peninsular. The debate surrounding the ROK approaches to the changing security environment intensified after the DPRK’s nuclear test in 2006. The ROK’s engagement approach, which dominated North Korean policy from the late 1990s, was heavily blamed for failing to prevent the test and the consequent damage to the ROK security environment. At the time of writing (early 2007) there has as yet been no significant sign of a shift in ROK policy from the existing engagement approach; the debate therefore remains intense, even furious. Is there any chance that the de- bate will ease or be resolved? A common problem facing DPRK studies is that little in the way of data and information is available. Sometimes this leads to a lot of argu- ment based on little evidence. The ROK debate about its North Korean policy is probably no exception. If so, now may be the time to seek more evidence rather than generating more argument. DPRK ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ROK SECURITY DILEMMA 143
Notes
1. Choi Jin-wook et al., ‘‘Progress in South–North Relations and Its Domestic Impact’’, Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification, 2003 (in Korean). 2. Yang Moon-soo, The Structure of the North Korean Economy, Seoul: Seoul National University Press, 2001 (in Korean); ROK Ministry of Unification, The North Korean Economic Statistics Collection, Seoul, 1996 (in Korean). 3. Some ROK economists have attempted to estimate the DPRK’s long-term productivity trends. Although they have employed data from officially released DPRK figures which are different from outside estimates, they have commonly concluded that DPRK pro- ductivity has kept on falling at least since the late 1970s. See Yang, The Structure of the North Korean Economy; Kim Suk-jin, ‘‘Economic Growth and Crisis in North Korea: Past Performance and Future Prospects’’, PhD dissertation, Seoul National University, 2002 (in Korean); Lee Suk, The DPRK Famine of 1994–2000: Occurrence, Impacts and Features, Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification, 2004 (in Korean). 4. Cho Dong-ho, ‘‘Labor Productivity and the Optimal Wage in North Korea: Study on Labor Quality in North Korea’’, Korea Development Study, Vol. 15, No. 4, 1993 (in Korean). 5. Lee, The DPRK Famine of 1994–2000. 6. For the problems with previous estimates of the DPRK population loss in the 1990s, see Lee Suk, ‘‘Food Shortages and Economic Institutions in the Democratic People’s Re- public of Korea’’, PhD thesis, University of Warwick, UK, 2003. 7. For instance, the DPRK Mission Team of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) writes: ‘‘The combina- tion of all these factors have led to polarity in food consumption in various aspects, ie people with assets and remittances fare better than those without, farming community is better placed to meet shortages than urban population. . . . Overall, therefore, food shortages are most entrenched in urban areas and, of this, in parts of the population which so far have relied entirely on the PDS for food supply’’ (FAO/WFP, ‘‘Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’’, 25 November 1997). 8. In 1999, for example, William Perry, US North Korea Policy Coordinator and Special Advisor to the President and the Secretary of State, found in his trip to Pyongyang: ‘‘In its current circumstance of industrial and agricultural decline, the DPRK has on oc- casion indicated a willingness to ‘trade’ addressing U.S. concerns about its nuclear weapons activities and ballistic missile exports for hard currency. For example, the DPRK offered to cease its missile exports if the U.S. agreed to compensate it for the foregone earnings from missile exports.’’ William Perry, Review of United States Policy toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations, Washington DC, Department of State, 12 October 1999; available at hhttp://www.state.gov/www/regions/eap/991012_ northkorea_rpt.htmli (accessed 3 February 2007). 9. Andrew Natsios, The Politics of Famine in North Korea, USIP Special Report No. 51, Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2 August 1999. 10. By 2003, the number of DPRK defectors entering the ROK had reached 5,000. 11. On 21 August 1995, for instance, Kim Young Sam said that ‘‘unification comes now as a realistic target, not as probable possibility’’; and some days later he also pointed out that ‘‘the unification of two Koreas will be certainly achieved in the near, not far, future in a democratic way’’ (Hankyoreh Daily News, 21 August 1995 and 17 September 1995). This kind of remark was frequently repeated until he left office (Park Hyeong-jung et 144 SUK LEE
al., Engagement Policy Toward the North and Measures to Create Its Domestic Political Environment, Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification, 2000, in Korean). 12. These two-track measures were employed frequently in the Cold War era until the early 1980s by the authoritarian ROK governments (Yoon Tae-young, ‘‘South Korea’s Crisis Management towards North Korea under the South Korea–U.S. Alliance, 1968–1983’’, International Politics, Vol. 33, No. 2, 1999, in Korean). Ironically, they were revived by the newly elected democratic government in the 1990s after the Cold War. 13. Yoo Ho-yeol, ‘‘Dark Behind Trade of Sunshine Policy’’, The Chosun Ilbo, 10 July 2003, available at hhttp://www.chosun.com/editorials/news/200307/200307100340.htmli (ac- cessed 13 February 2007). 14. Choi et al., ‘‘Progress in North–South Relations and Its Domestic Impact’’. 145
8 Korean security dilemmas: Chinese policies
Ren Xiao
The overall approach by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the Korean nuclear issue is based on four closely related principles: the Ko- rean peninsula has to be nuclear weapon free; the nuclear problem has to be resolved through peaceful means; peace and stability on the Korean peninsula should be maintained; and North Korea’s security concerns should be resolved. These are seen as logically coherent positions and they reflect China’s fundamental goals and interests on the peninsula. Beijing has put the first three principles into effect for some time; the last is a later addition. They reflect broader security concerns on the part of China, which result from a fundamental geographical fact – China and its North Korean neighbour border each other and the border is a porous one. North Korea’s nuclear test, conducted on 9 October 2006, has not changed China’s positions. For Beijing, the Korean security ques- tion is indeed multidimensional, as Hazel Smith points out in Chapter 1, and it includes issues such as illegal migration, human trafficking and, in the event of a regime collapse, possible refugees. In this chapter I will elaborate on China’s thinking and efforts to recon- stitute Korean security. In contrast to its role in the 1993/1994 nuclear crisis, China has been playing a more activist role since October 2002 in the most recent nuclear crisis. China’s current role is related both to Beijing’s new way of thinking regarding its international behaviour, i.e. China should act as a responsible great power, and to its domestic devel- opmental needs, including the drive to rejuvenate the country’s north- eastern region. First, I shall analyse how Korean security is perceived
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 146 REN XIAO and debated in China. After illuminating China’s policy practices con- cerning the Korean nuclear crisis, I shall proceed to an analysis of China’s plausible policy alternatives.
China’s Korea problem
There is no doubt that dealing with the Korean security problem has be- come an extraordinarily important and tough policy issue for China. But Korea policy has never been easy for China. To a great extent this is re- lated to geography, which nobody can argue with. Geographical proxim- ity ensures that Chinese and Korean affairs are always entangled with each other. It is not necessary to trace Chinese history back to the Ming dynasty and its war with Japan fought in the Korean peninsula to see that China has been repeatedly drawn into fatal conflicts and wars there. In modern history, prominent conflicts as a result of events on the peninsula include the 1894–1895 Sino-Japanese war, during which the Central Kingdom was humiliated by a devastating defeat, and the 1950–1953 Ko- rean war, during which the newly born People’s Republic lost many lives and sacrificed much. In the eyes of some Chinese researchers, without the Korean war and China’s forced involvement, there would not have existed a Taiwan question today,1 which consumes so much of China’s resources to block Taiwan’s drifting toward independence. Understand- ably, a new war in Korea, which would inevitably have a great impact on China, is the last thing that Beijing wants. The Koreans, for their part, have long recognized that the peninsula’s geographical location makes it ‘‘a shrimp among whales’’. This mentality, combined with Korea’s own bitter history, has also bred a strong self- concept and nationalistic sentiment among Koreans. Official pronounce- ments by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) constantly castigate ‘‘flunkeyism’’ – the official DPRK translation of a well-known Korean term, sadaejuui, meaning the doctrine of ‘‘serving the great’’ observed by ancient Korean kingdoms, under which regular tribute to China was ideologically justified. Throughout the Cold War years, Pyongyang made use of the rift be- tween China and the Soviet Union, the two communist great powers on its border. Pyongyang skilfully played one against the other and took advantage of the complex relationships. China’s relationship with Pyong- yang was by no means a comfortable one. In the Cold War years, China had itself partly to blame, especially during the Cultural Revolution, when ideological fervour prevailed and China often became either a real or a potential target of ‘‘anti-flunkeyism’’. Sea changes occurred towards the end of the Cold War. Diplomatic turnover culminated with China’s CHINESE POLICIES 147 establishment of diplomatic relations with the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea) in 1992, and the further deterioration in Pyongyang’s diplomatic isolation. However, China, unlike the Soviet Union before it, behaved carefully and managed to maintain normal relations with the DPRK.2 Over the past decade China has continued to provide its prickly neighbour with fuel, foodstuffs and other aid. China has maintained a closer relationship with North Korea than perhaps any other country has. Nevertheless, Beijing is well aware that it needs to approach Pyong- yang in a cautious and understanding way. For many years, domestic and external stability remained the top pri- orityinChina’spolicyagenda–aprioritythatwasseenasapremisefor everything else. During the first nuclear crisis in 1993–1994, China was not an active player as it might have been, partly because of the coolness of the Sino-DPRK relationship after the establishment of PRC–ROK diplomatic ties. However, out of fear of regional instability or even tur- moil, Beijing decided to use its rarely used power to veto any draft reso- lution to impose sanctions on the DPRK that might be submitted to the United Nations Security Council, as the US administration had intended. China, which itself once suffered from US sanctions measures, has been consistent in arguing that sanctions do not work and may even exacer- bate a situation. The persistent attitude that stability is the top priority has been powerful and dominant, and has left a clear imprint on China’s approach towards Korean affairs. It has been a key part of Beijing’s rationale for continually offering aid and preventing North Korea from collapse.
Debating the Korean security policy in China
The North Korea nuclear crisis that re-emerged in October 2002 will probably prove to be a turning point in the history of Sino-DPRK rela- tions. The crisis arose when China had just entered a new stage of eco- nomic reform and political succession. The Sixteenth Party Congress took place less than a month later, in November 2002, having been post- poned from September because then President Jiang Zemin was sched- uled to make an important, and surely his last, state visit to the United States in late October. The Party Congress, which was a new milestone for China, to a large extent because of the leadership transition, set a fundamental long-term development goal for the country, i.e. to build a prosperous society in an all-round way. Thus the corresponding funda- mental task in terms of China’s foreign affairs is to help shape an external environment favourable to building such a society. Without doubt, the 148 REN XIAO
Korean peninsula is a significant part ofthestrategytocreateaharmoni- ous and stable surrounding environment. In this context, the debate over China’s Korean security policy in- volves several elements: China’s view of itself as a ‘‘responsible great power’’, China’s concern for development of the north-eastern part of the country neighbouring Korea, and China’s need to stabilize surround- ing areas.
China’s view of itself as a ‘‘responsible great power’’
In the period after the 1993–1994 nuclear crisis, China came to accept and adopt the idea of ‘‘a responsible great power’’. This seems to have been a term from overseas that began to appear about the time of the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998. When Asian nations such as Thai- land, Indonesia and South Korea were badly hit by the currency crisis, which later became an economic and/or political crisis, China took action and participated in the package plan of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to bail Thailand out. China bilaterally provided Thailand with US$1 billion in loans.3 In 1998, China decided to offer Indonesia assis- tance as a part of the IMF package or as bilateral aid in the amount of, respectively, US$520 million or US$300 million.4 Altogether, the Chinese government provided the crisis-affected Asian countries with over US$4 billion in aid. More importantly, China decided not to devalue its cur- rency. This was something it might have done and which might have worsened the situation in the crisis-hit nations. In these ways China helped stabilize the regional situation and overcome the region-wide cri- sis. The international community praised China for playing a stabilizing role in such a difficult time and for behaving in a responsible way. Since then, Beijing seems to have accepted the concept of ‘‘a responsible power’’ as something that China should conform to in the future, and Beijing has started to use it as a measure of achievement and as a goal.5
China’s concern for development of the north-eastern part of the country neighbouring Korea
China’s approach to the North Korea nuclear crisis is closely related to its adoption of a ‘‘reviving the north-east’’ (zhenxing dongbei) strategy. For many years China’s resource-rich north-eastern region, which bor- ders the Korean peninsula, was the country’s leading industrial base, pro- viding much of China’s steel, coal and petrochemicals. At present crude oil output in the north-east comprises two-fifths of the country’s total oil production, wood output amounts to one-half, automobile output ac- counts for one-quarter, and shipbuilding for one-third. CHINESE POLICIES 149
Administratively, there are three provinces in China’s north-east: Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang. Jilin, especially the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, is where most of the Korean minority people live. Since the early 1990s, compared with more developed coastal areas, reform in the north-east has been slow, competitiveness has been de- creasing, and there is high unemployment. Lead industries of the cities with rich natural resources are declining. As the speed of development slows, the gap between the north-east and the coastal areas is widening. The statistics indicate that, in the early reform period, the GDP of Liao- ning Province was twice that of Guangdong Province in the south, but now the positions are reversed, with the GDP of Guangdong being twice that of Liaoning.6 Against this backdrop, the Sixteenth Party Congress put forward a strategic policy of reviving China’s north-eastern region.7 In March 2003, Wen Jiabao became the new premier. Soon after, the new leader- ship made clear that the strategy of rejuvenating the north-east was at the same (high) level as the strategy of developing China’s west. Both are major parts of the national economic development strategy. They aretwointeractingwheels,oneinthewestandtheotherintheeast. The new leadership hopes that the north-east will catch up and become China’s ‘‘fourth growth pole’’, following the Pearl River Delta, the Yang- tzeRiverDeltaandtheBeijing–Tianjin–Tanggu area, and thus start a ‘‘new north-east era’’. Meanwhile, the strategy also requires further transnational development cooperation with other Northeast Asian na- tions in trade, investment and environmental protection. Needless to say, it is only under stable conditions that are favourable to private and foreign investment that such a strategy can possibly be carried out. Any conflict or chaos on the Korean peninsula would make the move impos- sible to accomplish.
China’s need for stability in the surrounding areas
China’s approach to the current nuclear crisis stems from the strategic need for stable surrounding areas (wending zhoubian). Beijing came to realize that continued peace and stability on the peninsula are crucial to China’s strategy of maintaining stability in the immediate neighbouring region. After all, China’s eastern border is more important than other parts since this region is closer to the nation’s political centre and its key industrial base. Moreover, when the nuclear crisis re-emerged, it seemed to escalate rapidly. Beijing was concerned that it might get out of control, particularly when the DPRK restarted the Yongbyon nuclear facilities and ordered the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to 150 REN XIAO leave. The downward spiral culminated in the DPRK’s announcement on 10 January 2003 of its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty with immediate effect.8 The time seemed to have come for Beijing to act. Chinese policy analysts have long argued, in debates usually not con- ducted publicly, over the country’s Korea policy. It is quite natural that analysts both converge and diverge on some issues. Very few other foreign policy matters have aroused more debate and been more contro- versial than Korea policy. Ideological impacts linger on and leave their imprints. Some people, both in and outside government, would still like to lump the DPRK and Viet Nam together by calling them ‘‘socialist countries’’, although the term has already lost much of its substance. For many years, to criticize the DPRK was taboo, even during internal dis- cussions inside government.9 Almost everything that China said and did had to be acceptable to the North Koreans and keep them happy. Only recently has this situation come to be seen as somewhat abnormal and more people have called for a ‘‘normal state-to-state relationship’’ with the DPRK. As foreign policy pragmatism prevails in the new circum- stances, it is increasingly becoming the mainstream of China’s North Ko- rea policy. Trying to figure out China’s national interests on the Korean penin- sula, one group of researchers argue that China’s interests include the survival of the current DPRK regime, the unchanged division of the peninsula, the maintenance of peace and stability, and North Korea’s continuing to be China’s strategic buffer ( ping zhang). For this group, stability ought always to be China’s number one priority. Put another way, the maintenance of the status quo, at least for the moment, is China’s paramount national interest on the peninsula. An opposing view argues that stability has to be sustainable and this may not be possible in the case of the DPRK. China’s long-term and fun- damental interests include: (1) sustainable peace and stability on the pen- insula so that a favourable external environment is assured to the east; (2) a friendly peninsula as a whole that maintains a good relationship with China and is not made use of by any other great power, so that it becomes a real buffer zone for China. This group sees an autonomous and unified Korean peninsula that is free from nuclear weapons and ori- ented to economic development as the Korea that will maintain friendly relations with China. By contrast, a possible chain reaction in the region caused by a nuclear-weapon-armed peninsula could leave China sur- rounded by nuclear powers – South Korea, Japan and even Taiwan, let alone Russia, India and Pakistan. ‘‘In this context, the traditional rela- tionship that envisioned using North Korea as a buffer against the United States appears both obsolete and self-destructive.’’10 CHINESE POLICIES 151
Enforcement of a balanced policy of denuclearization and peaceful resolution
The eruption of the Korean nuclear crisis posed a clear and major chal- lenge to the Chinese policy. China already had enough nuclear neigh- bours. A nuclear-weapon-armed Korean peninsula would be the last thing that China hoped to see because such a situation was definitely con- trary to China’s national interest. Since a peaceful Korean peninsula was essential for China in general and the north-east provinces in particu- lar, China wanted to control the situation and prevent any turmoil from occurring on its border. In this context, Beijing decided that it needed to take preventive action to cope with the security problem, and to pursue a policy of peaceful resolution with denuclearization.
Preventing the crisis from escalating
On 16 October 2002, a US State Department spokesman claimed that, during Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly’s Pyongyang visit, the DPRK side had admitted that it had a secret uranium enrichment pro- gramme. Thus the North Korean nuclear crisis emerged once again. Soon afterwards, China expressed its wish that the hard-earned 1994 Agreed Framework should be respected and maintained. During Presi- dent Jiang Zemin’s US visit on 22–25 October, apparently his last as state president and China’s number one leader, the two sides exchanged views about the nuclear crisis and agreed to continue bilateral communication and consultation. Through diplomatic channels Beijing kept close contact with both Washington and Pyongyang, and in the meantime briefed others on its contact with the concernedpartiesandpassedonarguments and concerns. Overall, Beijing attempted to express its own principled position, to facilitate mutual communication and understanding between Pyongyang and Washington, and to persuade the two sides to start a dialogue as early as possible.11 On 10 January 2003, North Korea declared its decision to withdraw im- mediately from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The next day, at the request of the US side, President Jiang Zemin talked with US President George W. Bush on the phone and made it clear that China was not in favour of North Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT and that China hoped to see a nuclear-weapon-free Korean peninsula. During an- other telephone conversation on 7 February, Bush suggested that the two countries jointly bear responsibility for achieving a nuclear-free penin- sula. At a time when the Iraq crisis was entering the countdown phase and a war seemed to be rapidly approaching, the nuclear crisis looked all the more worrying. In order to alleviate the tension and to help bring 152 REN XIAO the crisis under control, Beijing was convinced that the United States and theDPRKhadtositdowntotalkwitheachother.Yetthetwowere stuck on the terms of the talk’s format. Whereas Pyongyang insisted on dealing with Washington bilaterally, the Bush administration had learned a ‘‘lesson’’ from the previous administration’s experiences and flatly re- jected the bilateral format, hoping that other parties would take part. China, worried about the escalation of the crisis, strongly opposed the passage of a UN Security Council resolution to condemn Pyongyang’s withdrawal from the NPT. On the other hand, Beijing made up its mind to play a more active and constructive role in this crisis. On 20 March 2003, the United States launched its war against Iraq, ignoring the worldwide opposition and reservations. The military action undoubtedly drew attention away from Kim Jong Il and probably had a subtle impact on his thinking regarding the nuclear issue. Around that time, China started, at least in appearance, to mediate between the two to break the stalemate over the format for the meeting between the United States and the DPRK. In March, before the Iraq war broke out, China had shut off an oil pipeline to the DPRK for three days for what it claimed were ‘‘technical reasons’’. Many speculated that this unusual event signalled its disapproval to the DPRK.12 Against this backdrop, a US–China–DPRK trilateral meeting was held from 23 to 25 April 2003 in Beijing. The gathering took the form of minimalist multilateral talks. This satisfied the US wish to avoid direct dealing with the North Koreans since it was conducted in a multilateral setting after all. The format was also acceptable to Pyongyang since it provided the occasion for the United States and the DPRK to meet and talk bilaterally. In this way the format saved face for both sides. For the Chinese, this was a change from ‘‘no-talk’’ (bu tan)to‘‘talk’’(tan)and therefore was a positive development. Despite the huge difference be- tween the US and DPRK positions, for Beijing the trilateral meeting proved to be a good beginning. Thus efforts should continue and would probably require an ongoing process. Meanwhile, China decided that it had better not take sides, otherwise it would lose its favourable place to its disadvantage. ‘‘China enjoys a unique position in the negotiations: It alone can express a full and sincere understanding of North Korea’s secu- rity concerns and can work to obtain a better deal for Pyongyang.’’13 Beijing knew very well that it would take a long time for the problem to be resolved; the meeting was just the first step of a long march.
The conduct of shuttle diplomacy: From Three-Party to Six-Party Talks
After a short interval in which the participant countries in the trilateral meeting had made their respective assessments of the Beijing talks, the CHINESE POLICIES 153 question that quickly came up was whether to keep the trilateral format or to expand it and bring in other parties as well. South Korea and Japan had apparently expressed their interest, believing, with Washington’s support, that they too have a legitimate role in the process. On 13 May 2003, when asked about China’s attitude toward including South Korea and Japan, the Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson responded that China would welcome these countries’ playing a constructive role in a peaceful resolution.14 On 27 May, the spokesperson stated that China’s basic position was that, in the current circumstances, the parties con- cerned should keep up the attempt to continue the DPRK–China–US tri- lateral talks in Beijing.15 The position was repeated during the 10 June press conference.16 Nevertheless, China believed that the format was not critical and China was open to alternatives. What mattered was the result, which had to favour denuclearization as well as peace and stability on the pen- insula. The format remained an issue for some time. Pyongyang, which appeared not to like the idea initially, later did not oppose the inclusion of South Korea and Japan in future talks as long as the DPRK and US delegates could meet bilaterally on the sidelines of a multilateral gather- ing, although Pyongyang did not say this publicly. Pyongyang also pre- ferred to bring in Russia to further balance the participating states. In pursuit of a peaceful resolution, China decided to take further dip- lomatic actions. These included a series of dizzying shuttle diplomatic moves undertaken by the top Chinese diplomats, unprecedented in the history of PRC foreign relations. In early July 2003, Vice Foreign Minis- ter Wang Yi made a special trip to Washington solely to discuss the nuclear issue, and almost simultaneously the Foreign Ministry’s number two, Dai Bingguo, flew to Moscow for consultations with the Russian counterparts on the same question. On 6 July, the Director General of the Foreign Ministry Asian Department, Fu Ying, met with her Japanese counterpart in Beijing for consultations. From 12 to 15 July, Dai visited Pyongyang as a special envoy of the Chinese government. He took a letter from Hu Jintao, China’s president, to DPRK top leader Kim Jong Il (Dai had met with Kim Jong Il before, when Dai had been the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee International De- partment, which is responsible for relations with foreign political parties). During the July visit, Dai exchanged views with Kim in a deep and frank way and suggested that the DPRK accept a multilateral format that would ensure bilateral meetings between the United States and the DPRK. Only one day later, Dai departed for Washington, this time car- rying a letter from President Hu to George W. Bush. In Washington he met US Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell and other high-ranking officials, briefing them on his meetings with the North Koreans in Pyongyang earlier in the week. On behalf of the Chi- 154 REN XIAO nese government, he proposed that, as a next step in the Beijing trilateral meetings, talks might adopt a (more) multilateral format in which the United States and the DPRK would have some extra time to talk bilater- ally. It turned out that both Washington and Pyongyang were persuaded and accepted the suggestion, paving the way for the first round of the Six- Party Talks, which were held from 27 to 29 August 2003. Undoubtedly, the fact that the Six-Party Talks occurred at all – bringing together the United States, the DPRK, China, South Korea, Ja- pan and Russia – was itself quite significant. China’s extraordinary efforts to make this happen won China widespread praise throughout the world. During the August 2003 talks, a possible way forward was proposed by South Korea. It would involve a three-stage approach, beginning with a commitment by North Korea to dismantle its nuclear facilities and by other countries, including the United States, to provide a security guaran- tee. This would be followed by the freezing of the nuclear programmes, verified by monitors, and the provision of aid. Finally, with the scrapping of the facilities, North Korea would get a firm security assurance.17 Before the August 2003 meeting was closed, the chairman, who was head of the Chinese delegation, made a statement and declared six points of ‘‘consensus’’ that were reached: All the parties are willing, through dialogue, to try to resolve the Ko- rean peninsula nuclear issue in a peaceful way, to help maintain peace and stability, and to bring about sustainable peace in the peninsula. All the parties hold that the peninsula has to be nuclear-weapon-free and meanwhile all realize that North Korea’s security and further con- cerns need to be taken into consideration and to be resolved. The parties in principle are in favour of seeking a general resolution through multi-phased, simultaneous implementation. The parties agree that they will not take steps to escalate tensions in the course of peace talks. All the parties hold that they will continue to conduct dialogue, build confidence, reduce differences, and foster consensus. The parties agree that they will continue the Six-Party Talks process and will try to fix a time and venue for the next round of talks as early as possible. Obviously, the six-point ‘‘consensus’’ was just a summary by the chair- man couched in general terms. It was not a joint document that the six nations all agreed upon or even signed, therefore different nations might have different explanations of the same ‘‘consensus’’. By ‘‘a nuclear-free peninsula’’, for example, what the Bush administration wanted was for the North Koreans to abandon all nuclear activities, including the peace- ful use of nuclear energy, whereas Pyongyang had a different view about what it meant and possessed. CHINESE POLICIES 155
However, there were no high expectations of the first-round talks. As was foreseen, despite what might be read into a chairman’s statement, the meeting failed to release a joint declaration or communique´; nor did it fix a date for the next round of talks.
The Office for the Korean Peninsula Issue
Well aware that the Korean nuclear problem had been present for years, Beijing was afraid that it would not be resolved any time soon; it prob- ably would last years rather than months, and the process of resolution could be lengthy (chang qi hua). Based on its assessments of the situa- tion, in late 2003 Beijing decided to create an Office for the Korean Peninsula Issue within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that would take re- sponsibility solely for the nuclear problem. The name of the office was carefully chosen to make it sound as neutral as possible, avoiding the use of terms such as ‘‘nuclear issue’’ or even ‘‘North Korea nuclear is- sue’’. Such terms would be overly sensitive to the North Koreans, who wanted to make the issue a US–DPRK bilateral affair – ‘‘the DPRK–US nuclear issue’’. In January 2004 the office came into being, bringing to- gether eight people from the Foreign Ministry’s Arms Control Depart- ment and the Asian Department, as well as from the country’s Perma- nent Mission to the United Nations, plus Ambassador Ning Fukui. Ning is the first person to have been specially appointed to take charge of the nuclear problem. His title is not ‘‘special envoy’’ but rather ‘‘Ambassador for Korean Peninsula Affairs’’. Ning has long been an Asia hand in the Foreign Ministry. Prior to his current position he served as Chinese am- bassador to Cambodia; he was deputy head of the Chinese delegation to the 1997–1999 Four-Party Talks in Geneva. It was an unprecedented move to create a special office for a particular issue and to appoint a high-level official to head it. The action itself showed that China’s behav- iour in the current nuclear crisis differs from its approach in 1993–1994, when China was by and large a spectator and stayed outside the vortex of the US–DPRK interactions. In 2003–2004, the Chinese team worked and tried hard. However, the task was daunting and smooth progress towards a resolution was out of the question. Instead of a joint communique´, which China had hoped for and striven to bring about, the second round of Six-Party Talks in Febru- ary 2004 ended with another chairman’s statement in which the parties agreed to set up a working group and to hold a third round before the end of June. During the June 2004 third round, the US side put forward a proposal outlining a six-stage denuclearization process. The DPRK would be required at the outset to make a unilateral declaration pledging to 156 REN XIAO
‘‘dismantle all of its nuclear programs’’.18 The US proposal contrasted sharply with the more limited and loosely defined DPRK proposal to freeze its plutonium programme. It appeared that the US offer was scarcely acceptable to Pyongyang, and China seemed to be in a difficult position to help bridge the gap. China hoped Pyongyang would denucle- arize, but hesitated to exert pressure on it in the way urged by Washing- ton. Beijing pursued its basic policy of letting diplomacy exert the power of persuasion. Beijing has time and again earnestly advised Pyongyang to embrace a strategic new option while urging Washington to adjust its hard-line position and to be flexible. Although some analysts have begun to suspect that the nuclear impasse has become a ‘‘hot potato’’ for China as host of the six-nation talks, the Chinese government seems not to share this view. The Chinese government instead regards the Six-Party process as a kind of control mechanism to constrain the problem and keep it under control.19 Put another way, there is no lack of confidence and patience on the part of China; government officials are by no means pessimistic. One fundamental reality persists: for both Pyongyang and Washington, a strategic decision remains to be made.
Between persuasion and pressure: China’s policy alternatives
The above analysis shows that China has been, through diplomatic man- oeuvre, pursuing the objective of a nuclear-weapon-free Korean penin- sula and a peaceful resolution of the problem. In the process, China has adopted and uses four principles that in a succinct way sum up its overall approach to the Korean nuclear problem; i.e. the Korean peninsula has to be nuclear weapon free; the nuclear issue should be resolved through peaceful means; peace and stability in the peninsula have to be main- tained; and North Korea’s security concerns ought to be resolved. These four closely related positions are logically coherent, and they reflect China’s fundamental goals and interests on the peninsula. In the eyes of some outside observers, China is playing a leadership role in terms of the Korean nuclear crisis and possesses much leverage. However, China itself is doubtful that it is playing such a ‘‘leadership role’’ and proceeds cautiously. After all, there are a number of difficulties that remain to be overcome and questions to be answered. Important questions concern policy alternativeswithregardtoPRC–DPRKtreaty relations, the role of the UN Security Council, and China’s aid to Pyongyang. CHINESE POLICIES 157
One concern is whether it is necessary to amend the PRC–DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance signed in 1961. The key part of the treaty, which has attracted much attention and speculation, is Article Two concerning possible automatic military in- volvement to assist the other side should a war break out.20 One group of Chinese researchers argues that the Chinese government should openly suggest to the DPRK government that the two sides revise the 1961 treaty and delete Article Two. The reasons for this proposed move in- clude that China’s new conception of security has in fact discarded the formation of military alliances as a policy choice and that China is not in favour of North Korea’s developing nuclear weapon programme. By openly requesting and publicizing an amendment to the treaty, Beijing could give Pyongyang a clear warning signal so as to help reduce North Korea’s adventurism by pressuring it to refrain from playing a dangerous game with the United States and to make necessary concessions.21 Other ana- lysts, in contrast, believe that, by deterring US adventurism, the treaty helps prevent conflict. Any move to alter the treaty would further squeeze a DPRK that is already very fearful about its own security and therefore would intensify the situation. Further, my view is that at the moment it is unnecessary to modify the treaty because the existence of the treaty does not necessarily mean that China would become involved in a conflict if a war broke out between the DPRK and the United States. In short, I hold that an amendment to the treaty at this time would be too disturbing and overly sensitive and would probably disrupt the situation too much. Sometimes the maintenance of ambiguity is useful; China can move to propose a treaty revision any time it is necessary. A second question concerns possible UN Security Council deliberation of the nuclear issue and, if a resolution were passed, UN sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear activities. In 1993–1994, when the crisis reached its height and the Clinton administration wanted to see a Security Council resolution condemning and imposing sanctions upon North Korea, Beijing made up its mind – before any resolution was passed – to veto it. This was quite unusual and especially conspicuous at a time when China usually either endorsed or abstained from resolutions in the Security Council; this indicated how determined Beijing was re- garding coercive UN sanction measures. Since 1993–1994, China has been quite consistent on the matter and constantly appeals to both Pyongyang and Washington to be restrained. However, that does not mean that China opposes any sanctions in any circumstances. It depends on how things unfold. Remaining flexible is not a bad thing, though Bei- jing, fearful of aggravating tension, is clearly reluctant to see sanctions imposed on any party. At least one thing is clear: China will not uncondi- 158 REN XIAO tionally bail Pyongyang out. Beijing could opt for a new policy again, if it feels it is necessary. A third question concerns China’s alternatives as a provider of food and fuel aid to Pyongyang. It is widely believed that to a large extent the North Korean economy relies on aid from China, though exact statis- tics are not available. One view is that China’s foreign aid accounts for about 0.1 per cent of the DPRK’s GDP; if true, this amounts to slightly over US$1 billion a year.22 In any case, there is no doubt that a high per- centage of China’s foreign aid goes to North Korea and the country is be- lieved to be the largest recipient of China’s foreign aid.23 In recent years, the bilateral trade has kept on growing, and China continues to be the DPRK’s biggest trade partner. According to the PRC’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, the value of the China–DPRK bilateral trade in 2003 was approximately US$700 million. There also exist other forms of economic relations between the two countries, including border trade, so the Cus- toms statistics may not fully reflect the full extent of PRC–DPRK bilat- eral trade.24 In short, in terms of economic considerations, Pyongyang is dependent on Beijing and China is believed to have huge leverage with the DPRK. However, some people also point to the limits of China’s influence over North Korea.25 Both perspectives can be true. Here one important factor is the constraints on Beijing’s North Korea policy. For example, humani- tarian considerations may affect China’s political will and the incentive to use pressure and coercion. Given China’s modern history of being in- vaded and insulted by the colonial powers and Pyongyang’s sensitivity to outside pressure, Beijing has been quite reluctant to behave like a hard- headed big power and appear to be chauvinistic. The dilemma facing China is that by doing so it also risks a negative impact on the DPRK– PRC relationship and hence a loss of China’s influence. No doubt, there are a number of connections linking the two parties (China and the DPRK), two militaries, two governments and two peoples. One US China watcher states in a 2003 article, ‘‘high-level Chinese visits to Pyongyang are infrequent’’,26 but the statement may not be ac- curate. In comparison with the 1990s, high-level Chinese visits have ap- parently become more frequent in recent years. These include visits to North Korea by some of the nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), i.e. China’s top leadership; three such visits were made in 2001–2004. In addition, visits between China and the DPRK at and above the vice-ministerial level reached some 50 in 2003.27 CPC General Secretary and President of the PRCHuJintaopaidanofficialvisittotheDPRKinOctober2005.More- over, taking into account the fact that Kim Jong Il himself has made four trips to China, in 2000, 2002, 2004 and January 2006, it can be argued that CHINESE POLICIES 159 the high-level exchange of visits has been fairly frequent recently. This is a further indication of China’s pivotal place in Pyongyang’s foreign relations.
Conclusion
The Korean nuclear crisis is one of the most significant regional chal- lenges facing China. Based on its assessments of China’s national inter- ests on the Korean peninsula, in the current crisis Beijing has not pur- sued the passive style it followed during the 1993–1994 crisis – it has adopted a proactive approach to the problem. China decided to play an activist role in dealing with the nuclear crisis and to strive to bring about a denuclearized Korea while preventing any armed conflict from occur- ring on the peninsula. This approach follows from China’s calculations to prevent a nuclear arms race in East Asia, to behave as a responsible great power, and to build a peaceful and stable external environment on its border, especially for its initiative to rejuvenate the north-east prov- inces. In this context, China brokered and hosted the Six-Party Talks and made tremendous efforts to bring the crisis under control, all the more so after North Korea’s nuclear test. Thus the dominant approach of stabilizing its immediate external environment to the north-east and achieving denuclearization without chaos is key to understanding the Chinese way of coping with the Korean security problem. China’s agree- ment to UN Security Council Resolution 1718 should also be understood as balancing a strong Security Council response, which was necessary, and the desirable goal of a peaceful resolution. After all, sanctions are only a means and not an end in themselves. Moreover, the nuclear crisis is only part of a broader picture for Bei- jing, since Korean security, as a comprehensive and complex matter, in- volves other important issues such as border stability, economic migra- tion, illicit activities, and so forth. All those issues transcend the porous DPRK–China borders and affect local social stability and national secu- rity, and therefore should be taken into consideration as well. Living with a DPRK that has a limited nuclear capability, China continues to in- duce and encourage Pyongyang to take a new and different path. In the meantime, China hopes to prevent, by all means, worst-case scenarios of a sudden collapse or a war from materializing, for which all the parties involved, including China, would pay a high price. Under stable condi- tions, defined as a lack of chaos, things will, it is hoped, be worked out gradually towards a peaceful and stable Korea that is friendly to China, which will be in everybody’s best interest. The nuclear crisis per se involves the fundamental political relationship between Pyongyang and 160 REN XIAO
Washington, for which a strategic decision remains to be made. Until then, the Korean security question endures.
Acknowledgements
I wish to thank Hazel Smith and Dan Guttman for offering valuable com- ments and suggestions in the course of writing this chapter.
Notes
1. A similar argument is made by US authors too. For example, see Nicholas Eberstadt and Richard J. Ellings, ‘‘Assessing Interests and Objectives of Major Actors in the Ko- rean Drama’’, in Nicholas Eberstadt and Richard J. Ellings (eds), Korea’s Future and the Great Powers, Seattle and London: University of Washington Press, 2001, p. 331. 2. For a detailed analysis of the ‘‘triangular relationship’’, see Lee Hong-yung, ‘‘China’s Triangle with Two Koreas’’, China Studies, No. 4, 1998. 3. China’s Foreign Affairs 1998 [Zhongguo waijiao 1998], Beijing: World Affairs Press, 1998, p. 78. China’s Foreign Affairs is an annual publication that is prepared by the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs and covers China’s foreign relations over the past year. 4. China’s Foreign Affairs 1999 [Zhongguo waijiao 1999], Beijing: World Affairs Press, 1999, p. 85. 5. For instance, the then Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan mentioned it as an accomplish- ment when he spoke at one of the meeting series ‘‘Achievements of reform, opening- up and the modernization drive since the 13th Party Central Committee’s 4th Plenary Session’’, co-organized by the five party and government agencies, right before the Sixteenth Party Congress was held. 6. Wang Shengjin, ‘‘Dongbei lao gongye jidi zhenxing yu dongbeiya quyu hezuo’’ [‘‘The Resurgence of the Northeastern Old Industrial Base and the Northeast Asian Regional Cooperation’’], Dongbeiya luntan [Northeast Asia Forum], Vol. 13, No. 2, 2004. 7. See Documents of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 2002, p. 29. 8. For an excellent and detailed description of DPRK–US interactions, see Jonathan D. Pollack, ‘‘The United States, North Korea, and the End of the Agreed Framework’’, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003, pp. 11–49. 9. One recent example was that, in September 2004, the influential bimonthly journal Strategy and Management was ordered to stop publication, temporarily, by the State Press and Publication Administration because of an article in its fourth issue of 2004 that was highly critical of North Korea. The article is entitled ‘‘Looking at the North Korea Issue and Northeast Asian Situation from a New Perspective’’ and was written by someone at the Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences. The article accused the DPRK, in strong language, of maintaining ‘‘family dynastic rule’’ and being ungrateful for the political support and economic assistance that China had offered to it in recent years. 10. Anne Wu, ‘‘Beijing’s Disarming Way with Whispers’’, International Herald Tribune, 7–8 August 2004. 11. China’s Foreign Affairs 2003 [Zhongguo waijiao 2003], Beijing: World Affairs Press, 2003, p. 25. CHINESE POLICIES 161
12. Andrew Scobell, ‘‘China and North Korea: The Limits of Influence’’, Current History, September 2003, pp. 274–278. 13. Wu, ‘‘Beijing’s Disarming Way with Whispers’’. 14. See Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson’s Remarks at hhttp://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/ xwfw/fyrth/t156240.htmi. 15. See hhttp://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/xwfw/fyrth/1032/t24642.htmi. 16. See hhttp://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/xwfw/fyrth/1032/t24473.htmi. 17. For the South Korean proposal, see the report co-sponsored by the Center for Interna- tional Policy and the University of Chicago Center for East Asian Studies, Ending the North Korean Nuclear Crisis: A Proposal by the Task Force on U.S. Korea Policy, 2004, p. 12, available at hhttp://ciponline.org/asia/Web%20Report.pdfi (accessed 5 Feb- ruary 2007). 18. Ibid., pp. 9–11. 19. Interview with anonymous government official, 14 December 2004. 20. Article Two states, ‘‘The two sides promise to jointly take all possible measures in order to prevent any country from invading either of the contracting parties. Whenever one contracting party suffers from a military attack by one state or several states combined and therefore is in a state of war, the other contracting party should do all it can to offer military and other aid’’ (my translation). The treaty was signed in Beijing on 11 July 1961 by Zhou Enlai and Kim Il Sung, representing their respective states. 21. For instance, Shen Jiru’s piece ‘‘Weihu dongbeiya anquan de dangwuzhiji – zhizhi chaohewenti shang de weixian boyi’’ [‘‘The Top Priority of Northeast Asian Security – Stopping the Dangerous Game on the Korean Nuclear Issue’’], Shijie jingji yu zhengzhi [World Economics and Politics], No. 9, 2003. 22. I would guess that the actual amount is a bit higher than this. 23. For a good discussion on China’s place in the DPRK’s foreign economic relations, see Samuel S. Kim and Tai Hwan Lee, ‘‘Chinese–North Korean Relations: Managing Asymmetrical Interdependence’’, in Samuel S. Kim and Tai Hwan Lee (eds), North Korea and Northeast Asia, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2002. 24. See hhttp://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/xwfw/fyrth/1032/t23473.htmi. 25. For example, Scobell, ‘‘China and North Korea: The Limits of Influence’’. 26. David Shambaugh, ‘‘China and the Korean Peninsula: Playing for the Long Term’’, Washington Quarterly, Spring 2003, p. 46. 27. China’s Foreign Affairs 2004 [Zhongguo waijiao 2004], Beijing: World Affairs Press, 2004, p. 111. 162
9 Japan and North Korea – The quest for normalcy
Gavan McCormack
Security agendas
The lesson of twentieth-century Europe is that questions of security are best addressed not so much by security agreements per se – treaties, defence arrangements and military preparedness – as by comprehen- sive agreements on cooperation. Nations become secure, the European experience suggests, to the extent that they deepen cooperation and friendship with their neighbours. Supranational communities cohere around a single market, a shared currency and a cooperative security system, and are distinctive by their shared understanding of the past, vision for the future and responsibility for their own security and sustainability. In the wake of the Cold War, the process of economic, political and cultural integration proceeds in East Asia too, if more slowly than in Eur- ope. It is probably safe to say that long-term security and stability will be assured only by their construction, and this chapter considers two main sets of obstacles: one that may be described as ‘‘North Korea’’ and the other as ‘‘Japan’’. The North Korean problem is not simply, or best, seen as a problem to be resolved by putting pressure on North Korea to disarm itself but is better seen as symptomatic of larger regional issues and issues of history, with the ‘‘Japan problem’’ just as important as the ‘‘North Korea problem’’. The North Korea issue is most often seen as primarily one of threats to regional and global security stemming from nuclear weapons or missiles.
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 163
This chapter argues, however, that the force imbalance between North Korea and its neighbours is so overwhelming that only an outburst of insanity (such as no analyst predicts) would see the Pyongyang regime attacking any of its neighbours, and that far more important, and destabi- lizing, is the complex of unresolved, historical problems surrounding North Korea, the relationship to Japan second to none among them. They are all rooted in the fact that the 70-odd million people of present- day South and North Korea, despite being heirs to one of the world’s longest traditions of cultural continuity, have yet to accomplish a unified Korean nation-state. For Koreans, the twentieth century was disastrous: in the first half, Japan imposed a protectorate over their country, then swallowed it as a colony and attempted to wipe out its culture, and in the second half the global superpowers first divided it in two, incorporat- ing both halves at the centre of the global Cold War, and then intervened to turn the struggle for unification into a horrendous civil and global conflict. As the twenty-first century begins, Korea has still to resolve its nineteenth-century problem – the creation of a unified nation-state – and its twentieth-century problems – the relationship to Japan, division and ideological confrontation. Peace and security in the region depend on resolving these questions. Second is the ‘‘Japan problem’’. Nineteenth-century Japan chose to separate itself from Asia, stressing the non-Asian, unique, racially homo- geneous qualities of Japaneseness whose quintessential form was the emperor. Though Japan later attempted to build an Asian community, known ultimately as the ‘‘Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere’’, the insistence on Japanese gods and Japanese superiority meant it lacked credibility. After Japan’s defeat in war in 1945, it suited the US occupa- tion forces to encourage the persistence in Japan of these myths, because a superior, non-Asian Japan would be incapable of participation in the construction of an Asian community and would therefore remain de- pendently tied to the United States. For much of the Cold War, Japan stood with its back turned to Asia. Even though it ‘‘normalized’’ relations with South Korea in 1965 and with China in 1972, it was 1995 before a resolution of apology for war and imperialism was passed in the Diet, and the ‘‘Murayama statement’’ in specific terms was addressed to South Korea and confirmed in a joint statement of the Japanese and South Korean governments in 1998. Even then, on 1 March 2005, the eighty- sixth anniversary of a peaceful Korean uprising against Japanese rule, South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun made clear that he believed true normalization still lay ahead:
In order for the relations between the two countries to develop, the Japanese government and people need to make sincere efforts ... Japan must make the 164 GAVAN McCORMACK
truth of the past known, and offer sincere apologies and if necessary, pay com- pensation. Only then can we be reconciled.1
If the wounds of Japanese imperialism are still only partially healed in South Korea, despite 40 years of ‘‘normalization’’ of relations and with millions of citizens of both countries making mutual visits each year, how much deeper must be the wounds in North Korea where there has been hardly any contact at all, and most of it acrimonious. As of 2005, the single country in the entire world with which Japan does not have diplomatic relations is its neighbour, North Korea. Both North Korea and Japan seek what they describe as ‘‘normaliza- tion’’, but the term is ambiguous. For North Korea, it means assurance of immunity from attack, admission to global and regional economic and political institutions, and an end to sanctions, whereas for the United States (and for many, if not most, commentators) it means North Korea’s abandonment of its nuclear weapons programmes. ‘‘Normalization’’, not just of relations with North Korea but of Japan in the international state system, is often referred to as a goal. But Japan’s becoming a ‘‘normal state’’ means different things for different people. For many at least it means overcoming the inhibitions of the constitution’s Article Nine com- mitment to state pacifism, while for the government it certainly also means a great power seat on the United Nations Security Council. Yet a different kind of ‘‘normalization’’ will be required if the goal of Koizumi Junichiro (prime minister 2001–2006) of membership of an East Asian Community is to be realized. It seems likely that it will have to include a healing of the historical rift between Japan and Asia on the one hand and a transformation of the relationship with the United States on the other. The latter becomes increasingly urgent as US pressure grows for Japan to embrace a subordinate and dependent, but much more active than hith- erto, role in an emerging US global empire. Beneath the surface atten- tion to ‘‘the North Korea problem’’, these issues of crucial importance for the region are contested. Japan and North Korea in 2002 embraced the idea of a Northeast Asian community. The goal of ‘‘construction of an East Asian Commu- nity’’ was also declared by the Japan–Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Commemorative Summit in December 2003 and was then reaffirmed by Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi in his formal parlia- mentary opening speech on 20 January 2005. Late in 2005, an ‘‘East Asia Summit’’ in Kuala Lumpur formally convened the leaders of East and Southeast Asian countries, in the absence of the United States. The ques- tion is how such a community could be consistent with the US project of a global empire, inherent in statements from the George W. Bush admin- istration and in US actions in and around Iraq. JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 165
Under Prime Minister Koizumi, Japan pursued contradictory, even antagonistic, strategies – fleetingly (as on his occasional visits to Pyong- yang) as a partner in the construction of such a regional community, but also, and rather more consistently, as a dependent and subordinate dep- uty in a militarized global US empire. In the late nineteenth century, de- bate in Japan persisted for decades on how to deal with Asia, in particu- lar whether to attack and subjugate Korea or to treat it as equal. Today’s debate is similar in that Korea, this time North Korea, constitutes an axis of choice with profound implications for identity and role in the region andintheworld. This chapter looks at the Japan–North Korea relationship in its his- torical context, the various attempts to normalize it, including the two visits by Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi to North Korea in 2002 and 2004, the mass politics of the issue in Japan, and the regional and global context – in particular the US–Japan relationship.
Japan and North Korea: States in opposition
The common perception of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in Japan is first of all as an anti-Japanese state, secondly as a rogue state or criminal state, and thirdly as a menacing state, a security threat because of its missile and nuclear programmes. The North Korean regime is certainly anti-Japanese, but it could hardly be otherwise since it was born of anti-Japanese fascist guerrilla resistance of the 1930s, its first leader was one on whose head the Japanese authorities had posted a large price, and his son and successor, 70 years on, still calls on the people to model themselves on the spirit of those partisans. Till the end of the Cold War, Japan made no effort to normalize or even recognize North Korea, though it did make every effort to get rid of its Korean res- idents by encouraging, almost compelling,themtogotoNorthKorea.2 Whereas North Korea’s grievances were left ignored and uncompen- sated, Japan supported the United States in the Korean war of 1950– 1953 and in the long-continuing subsequent confrontation and nuclear intimidation. The blind eye Japan turned towards North Korea over the Cold War decades helped the North Korean regime stabilize itself on anti-Japanese partisan state lines. Only when diplomatic normalization is accomplished will it be possible to dissolve the myths of anti-Japanese partisan fundamentalism and accomplish domestic ‘‘normalization’’. Paradoxically, North Korea, Japan’s ultimate alien kingdom, has be- come a major consumer item. Over the past decade or so, more than 600 books about it have been published in Japan, the overwhelming majority of them profoundly negative. Korean stories flow steadily from Japan’s 166 GAVAN McCORMACK newspapers and weekly and monthly magazines, and at peak times tele- vision channels were scheduling three or four programmes about it in a single day. The appetite for stories of abductions and missiles, nuclear programmes, hunger and refugees, and for the details of the private life of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, his favoured wines, menus and movies, his wives, mistresses and companions, seems insatiable. A manga volume, published in mid-2003, depicting Kim Jong Il as violent, blood- thirsty and depraved, sold half a million copies in its first three months, almost certainly more than all books ever published about North Korea in all other languages put together.3 Politicians who challenge the Godzilla-like image of the country and strive for normalization with it arelikelytobedescribedas‘‘pro- Pyongyang’’, blamed for the fate of Japanese abducted by North Korea, and shunted aside from party power positions. For promoting or partici- pating in talks with Pyongyang in the 1990s, the Liberal Democratic Party’s Kato¯Ko¯ ichi was accused in national weekly magazines of plotting to make a fortune on normalization deals or of sending to Pyongyang banknote forgery machines or equipment to produce sarin gas.4 Other political figures, media groups such as the publishing house of Iwanami and the Asahi newspaper, and prominent academics who campaigned for normalization are routinely and fiercely attacked.5 Even more omi- nously, one in five Korean schoolchildren in Japan report being subject to various forms of abuse, from verbal to physical attack, sometimes in- volving their clothes being slashed with cutters while on the subway or on the street.6 When the Cold War ended, there were moves in the early 1990s to create a new order in East Asia. The veteran Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) figure Kanemaru Shin, a former deputy prime minister, led a multi-party Japanese delegation to North Korea in September 1990 and succeeded in the adoption of a Three Party (Liberal Democratic Party, Japan Socialist Party, and Workers’ Party of Korea) declaration on nor- malization, expressing Japanese apology and desire to compensate for the misery and misfortune caused by 35 years of Japanese imperialism and for the losses incurred during the 45 years since then, and a readiness to open diplomatic relations.7 North Korea too, at this time, was keen to ‘‘come in from the cold’’. To transcend the Cold War bloc confrontation system, a ‘‘cross-recognition’’ formula was revised, whereby China and Russia would normalize relations with South Korea and the United States and Japan would do likewise with North Korea. Although Kanemaru’s delegation was one of political parties, not gov- ernment, he was a major figure of conservative politics and he and his delegation had friendly exchanges with North Korean leader Kim Il Sung and went into detailed discussion on the question of monetary com- JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 167 pensation for the 35 years of Japanese imperialism and the 45 subsequent years of Japan’s evasion of its obligations towards North Korea. The highest estimate of the sum involved as compensation for the 35 years of Japanese imperialism is about 1.5 trillion yen (roughly US$12 billion). It was intended to be roughly proportional to the US$500 million that ac- companied normalization with South Korea in 1965. It was a large sum to be sure, but far less than Japanese taxpayers have recently forked out to rescue just one of Japan’s many floundering banks, and trivial by com- parison with, for example, the sums spent in recent years to keep the dol- lar up and the yen down in global currency markets. A Japanese capital transfer on something like the envisioned scale could, however, help significantly to fund the DPRK’s reconstruction of its crumbling infra- structure and collapsed energy sector, as the payment to South Korea did in 1965. However, the ‘‘cross-recognition’’ deal was never consummated. The negotiations that followed the Kanemaru visit stalled. Japan’s resistance to any compensation for post-1945 ‘‘losses’’ to North Korea, the negative attitude (until the advent of the Kim Dae Jung administration in 1998) of South Korean governments towards any Japanese rapprochement with North Korea, as well as suspicions over the North Korean nuclear pro- gramme and, not least, US pressure,8 combined to block progress. Kane- maru himself was arrested on corruption charges in November 1992. Throughout the first post–Cold War decade, the US government con- tinued to exercise an effective veto on any independent Japanese diplo- matic initiative, while the situation surrounding North Korea steadily worsened. While diplomatic initiatives were frozen, the suspicions of a North Korean nuclear programme, missile tests (in 1993 and 1998), vari- ous spy-ship encroachments into Japanese waters, and the growing real- ization that North Korea had abducted Japanese citizens, all deepened Japanese fears. Late in the 1990s, small groups of ‘‘Nihonjintsuma’’ – the approximately 1,831 women who accompanied Korean husbands re- patriating to North Korea, mostly in the 1950s and 1960s, and in many cases suffered discrimination and oppression while being cut off from their homeland – were allowed to make brief return visits to Japan and their plight too moved many. Pyongyang also continued, albeit perhaps reluctantly, to host four members of the Japan Red Army group respon- sible for a JAL hijacking in 1970. Japanese suspicion and distrust of North Korea deepened through the 1990s.9 Although Japan is singularly lacking in understanding, much less sym- pathy, for North Korea’s plight, no country should understand it better, because of its resemblance to the Japan of 60-odd years ago. In early twenty-first-century North Korea, as in early 1940s Japan, the preserva- tion of a beleaguered and dictatorial state regime is the major objective 168 GAVAN McCORMACK of state policy. For both regimes, the person of the central figure – emperor in the one and chairman of the National Defense Commission in the other – is crucial. Japan came in ‘‘from the cold’’ after 1945 and began to ‘‘normalize’’ itself. North Korea’s neighbours today seek a sim- ilar path for North Korea, but are determined at all costs to avoid the horrors of war.
The ‘‘summit of apology’’, 2002
After a stalemated decade, Koizumi Junichiro’s government began, in April 2001, with a sustained and serious search for a breakthrough in the bilateral relationship with North Korea, in sharp contrast with the George W. Bush administration, which began with the famous denunci- ation of North Korea as part of the ‘‘axis of evil’’. Koizumi’s Septem- ber 2002 visit to Pyongyang and the ‘‘Pyongyang Declaration’’ he there co-signed with Chairman Kim Jong Il held the promise of a historic reconciliation.10 Their meeting in September 2002 was a ‘‘summit of apology’’. Koizumi expressed ‘‘deep remorse and heartfelt apology’’ for ‘‘the tremendous damage and suffering’’ inflicted on the people of Korea during the colo- nial era, and Kim Jong Il apologized for the abductions of 13 Japanese between 1977 and 1982 (‘‘five surviving, eight dead’’) and for the dis- patch of spy ships into Japanese waters. The abductees, he said, had been taken to Pyongyang either to teach Japanese-language courses to North Korean spies or so that their identities could be appropriated for North Korean agents operating in South Korea, Japan or elsewhere. In- sisting that he had no personal knowledge of all of this, Kim explained it in terms of ‘‘some elements of a special agency of state’’ having been ‘‘carried away by fanaticism and desire for glory’’. As for the so-called ‘‘mystery ships’’ that had intruded into Japanese waters, a Special Forces unit had been engaged in exercises, he claimed lamely. ‘‘I had not imag- inedthatitwouldgotosuchlengthsanddosuchthings...TheSpecial Forces are a relic of the past and I want to take steps to wind them up.’’11 The Pyongyang Declaration issued to mark the occasion was somewhat vague but it was inspired by a vision of regional peace and cooperation. Its wording was acceptable to the Tokyo bureaucracy precisely because it carried no legal implications and, because Pyongyang had been forced by economic need to yield on crucial points, it was even regarded as a diplo- matic triumph for Japan. As for Pyongyang, it was a bitter climb-down for Kim Jong Il to abandon his long-held insistence that the Japanese im- perial regime was an illegal imposition, maintained by military force, and to yield to the Japanese view that it was properly constituted under inter- JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 169 national law. South Korea had swallowed the same bitter pill as the price of normalizing relations with Japan in 1965.12 One may doubt the sincerity of both apologies. On the Japanese side, the apology, once made, was never again mentioned. It was as if the ‘‘harm’’ caused by Japan over 35 years of imperialism was as nothing compared with the harm Japan suffered by the abductions. The questions of whether Japan had evaded paying reparations to which Pyongyang had a moral or historical entitlement, or why such an apology came 57 years late, were ignored. North Korea, however, by admitting and apolo- gizing for criminal actions, was doing something unprecedented in the history of modern states. Such a step must have been painful and difficult, and it might have been welcomed as a sign of the desire to turn over a new leaf. Instead, however, anger prevailed. Attention in Tokyo focused exclusively on North Korea’s crimes, not the apology. Prominent figures began to call for severing rather than normalizing the relationship, or even for making pre-emptive military strikes. The United States too responded, first by cautioning Japan through Deputy Secretary of State Armitage and Ambassador Howard Baker, and then by dispatching Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly to Pyongyang and Tokyo. Kelly concluded his now famous October 2002 Pyongyang meeting with the allegation that North Korea had confessed to him a secret uranium enrichment programme. Whether North Korea’s Kang Sok Ju actually said to Kelly what Kelly thinks he said is another matter.13 If Pyongyang did in fact make the admission Kelly attributed to it, it would seem an extraordinarily pointless, counterproductive and uncharacteristic thing for it to have done. Yet the allegation had a series of major consequences: the decline and in due course rupture of North Korea’s ‘‘Agreed Framework’’ relationship with the United States, its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the removal of plutonium from the storage ponds and resumption of a nuclear weapons programme. Global hostility and distrust for North Korea swelled and Koizumi’s plans for normalization suffered, at least, a serious reverse. The Kelly story also helped set the scene for the United States to issue its ‘‘pre-emptive strike’’ warning, to step up its ‘‘missile defense’’ promo- tion campaign (in Japan, South Korea, Australia), to foreshadow the up- grading of its own nuclear arsenal (with ‘‘bunker busters’’ specially de- signed for North Korea’s deep-buried installations) and to announce plans to rule the world from space-based weapon stations. The Koizumi and Kelly visits to Pyongyang, weeks apart, bespoke two very different agendas but, faced with the resolute Bush regime stance, and under Kelly’s whip, Koizumi stepped back in line. In October 2002, the five surviving abductees were returned to Japan. The drama of the slow ‘‘recovery’’ of their Japaneseness was then fol- 170 GAVAN McCORMACK lowed relentlessly by the national media. Their meetings with family or school friends, visits to hot spring resorts, every word they uttered, how much beer they did or did not drink, and what they sang for the karaoke were all scrutinized on national television and in print media for inner meaning. The eventual casting off of their Kim Jong Il badges on 19 De- cember 2002 was greeted with tears of national relief. The cohesion of the Japanese national family was celebrated by their return to the fold. Their decision not to return to North Korea meant that, at last, they were Japanese again; they were free. The agreement in Pyongyang had been for the ‘‘Pyongyang Five’’ ab- ductees to go temporarily to Japan, for one to two weeks, before return- ing to Pyongyang to work out the long-term arrangements for their and their families’ future. As soon as these terms of the agreement were known in Tokyo, however, senior members of Koizumi’s own govern- ment decided to sabotage it and to insist that the Five would not, in any circumstances, be allowed to go back. Abe Shinzo, deputy cabinet secre- tary at that time, took the view that North Korea would be forced by poverty and desperation to accept Japan’s terms. ‘‘In Japan,’’ he said on 14 November, ‘‘there is food and there is oil, and since North Korea can- not survive the winter without them, it will crack before too long.’’14 Whereas Japan thus tore up the agreement, it demanded that Pyongyang show ‘‘sincerity’’ by immediately handing over the children (and family members) of the Five. It is undeniable that Pyongyang was responsible for restoring, to the best of its ability, the human rights of the victims of its criminal acts in the 1970s and 1980s, and for clarifying the fate of those it said had died, but the Japanese refusal to trust it to make restitution in accordance with the formula agreed between the leaders of the two coun- tries was a calculated insult. From Pyongyang’s viewpoint, when Japan chose not to return the abductees in accord with that promise, it meant that the first act in a new and supposedly equal and principled relationship between the two countries was marked by Japan’s breach of promise. It also seemed scarcely ‘‘sincere’’ for Tokyo to have waited for decades for Pyongyang to weaken to the point where it would abandon its claim for compensa- tion for colonial wrongs, and for Tokyo to demand compensation for its own victims while consistently ruling out compensation to the former ‘‘comfort women’’, forced labourers and other victims of its own imperi- alism, many of them abducted.15 Elsewhere in Asia, the hubbub in Japan, where the North Korean regime’s abductions became quite literally the crime of the century and the Japanese the ultimate victims, had a painful air of unreality. Every abduction is of course a major, violent crime. But abduction in modern JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 171
East Asian history means primarily the Japanese seizure of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Korean men and women before and during the Second World War to work in Japan or elsewhere in the then Japa- nese empire under forced or near-forced conditions, including the so- called ‘‘comfort women’’. It also means the South Korean abduction of students and artists from Europe and Japan in the 1960s and 1970s and of then opposition leader Kim Dae Jung from Tokyo in 1973 (one in which there is reason to think the Japanese state itself was complicit, at least after the fact), and for South Koreans it also means the estimated 500 or more South Korean citizens who may have been abducted to the North since 1953.16 All these cases are cases of state terror. North Ko- rea’s crime is heinous, but far from being unique.
Return to Pyongyang, 2004, and aftermath
By early 2004, relations between the two countries were in deadlock, with Japan demanding the immediate and unconditional handover of the families of the Pyongyang Five and North Korea demanding that Japan honour its promise (to return the Five). Seeing no other way to break the logjam, Koizumi undertook a second Pyongyang visit, on 22 May 2004. On his departure for Pyongyang, he spoke of his wish to recover mutual trust, so that the abnormal relationship between Japan and North Korea could be normalized and ‘‘hostility turned to friendship, confron- tation to cooperation’’.17 No other major public figure in Japan would use such language. Yet it was almost identical to the words he had used (on television) in 2002: ‘‘It is in Japan’s national interest to sweep anxiety and fear from the relationship with a country close to us . . . and I believe it is the Japanese government’s responsibility to build a peaceful and har- monious relationship that contains no mutual threat.’’18 Koizumi promised to reopen humanitarian aid (250,000 tons of grain and US$10 million worth of medical equipment) and the North Korean side agreed to consider the five returned abductees permanently returned (rather than ‘‘temporarily returned’’),toallowtheirchildrentoleavethe country with Koizumi, to allow Charles Jenkins and the two children of Jenkins and Soga Hitomi to meet with Soga in a third country, and to re- open ‘‘sincere reinvestigation’’ into the eight abductees whose where- abouts were uncertain. Though the encounter was again strained, Koizu- mi’s initiative was appreciated. He was seen as bearing an olive branch of apology. Both sides agreed to return to the basic principle of the Pyong- yang Declaration and to restart constructive negotiations. Again, how- ever, that was easier said than done. 172 GAVAN McCORMACK
The Soga and Yokota families
When Koizumi reported to the Families Association on his visit, stating his own position that it was in the national interest of both countries to change Japan–North Korea relations from confrontation to friendly co- operation, he was castigated for having brought about ‘‘a worst possible outcome’’ because he had not brought Soga’s family back with him or se- cured adequate explanation of the many anomalies in the original report. Although Japanese people in general, according to opinion polls, were rather more positive about it,19 the organized national movement of hos- tility to any deal with North Korea nevertheless blocked any further steps towards normalization. Two cases in particular focused attention, those of the Soga and Yo- kota families. Although the fate of Soga Hitomi’s mother, abducted with her in 1977, remained to be resolved, she herself, abducted when she was a 19-year-old trainee nurse in 1977, and her American deserter husband Charles Jenkins (and their two children) were able to settle as a united family in Sado Island late in 2004. Mystery deepened, however, around the case of Yokota Megumi, abducted as a 13-year-old schoolgirl on her way home from a badminton match in 1977, subsequently married to a North Korean and mother of a child (Kim Hyegyong, aged 15 in 2002), and then said to have died in 1993 (later changed to 1994). In Pyongyang in November 2004, Japanese officials talked for two hours with Kim Chol Jun, the man said to have been her husband, who was described in 2002 as the employee of a trading company and in 2004 as employed in state security. He refused their request for DNA material and was prepared only to show, not to hand over, his ‘‘family’’ photographs with Megumi and their daughter. He did, however, provide some of what were de- scribed as Yokota Megumi’s cremated remains. In Japan, the National Research Institute of Police Science said it was impossible to conduct any DNA analysis on such remains, but a private university institute, the medical department of Teikyo University, never- theless went ahead and on 8 December 2004 the government announced its conclusion that the remains were not those of Yokota Megumi but the mixed remains of two other people.20 TheJapanesegovernmentpro- tested strongly at what it plainly construed as a deliberate deceit by the North Korean government, froze the dispatch of any further grain (after half of the amount promised had been sent), and turned to serious con- sideration of sanctions. A Kyodo poll in December 2004 found that 76 per cent of people supported sanctions and a ‘‘stern position’’ and only 23 per cent favoured ongoing talks as the way to resolve problems with North Korea.21 JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 173
On examining all the materials submitted by Pyongyang in its at- tempted explanation of the fate of the eight Japanese abductees, the Japanese government then concluded that there was ‘‘absolutely no evi- dence’’ to support the North Korean side’s claim concerning what had happened to the eight supposedly deceased abductees. It also rejected Pyongyang’s plea of ignorance of two others it insisted had not entered the country. It therefore took the view that there was the ‘‘possibility of them being still alive’’ and demanded their immediate return. Essentially, the government was adopting the reasoning of the national movement on the abduction issue (the Rescue Association, the Families Associa- tion and the Dietmembers Association). The government itself began to speak of strong counter-measures and started preparatory work on a ‘‘North Korea Human Rights Law’’ (modelled on the US one adopted in October 2004). On 17 January 2005, a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman asked Japan to show remorse and face the harm that its imperialist his- tory had caused, referring to the abductions as an ‘‘unfortunate incident’’ that ‘‘occurred in the context of the hostile relationship’’ and ‘‘would not amount to more than one thousandth of the misery and pain that Japan in the past inflicted on the Korean people’’. A formal ‘‘Memorandum’’ the following week dismissed the Japanese protests over the Megumi re- mains, saying that it was unscientific of the Japanese government to rely exclusively on Teikyo University when the National Research Institute of Police Science had declared DNA analysis of the sample impossible, and that it was ‘‘common sense’’ that DNA analysis could not produce any re- sult on remains cremated at 1200 degrees centigrade. Pyongyang also de- nounced the Japanese side for breaking the promise, made in a statement signed by the head of the Japanese delegation at the time when the bones were handed over, to the effect that ‘‘[w]e promise to hand these remains directly to Yokota Megumi’s parents, and not to publish the matter’’. North Korea’s protest was angrily brushed aside in Japan. It was widely assumed that the Japanese DNA analysis was scientifically beyond question. However, the North Korean position gained support from an unexpected quarter. An article in the 3 February 2005 issue of the presti- gious international scientific journal Nature revealed that the analysis had been performed by Professor Yoshii Tomio of the medical department of Teikyo University, and that Yoshii, who had no previous experience in the analysis of cremated specimens, described his tests as inconclusive and remarked that such samples were very easily contaminated by any- one coming in contact with them.22 The samples in question were any- way used up in the process of the Teikyo University analysis, so nobody now will ever know for sure what Pyongyang’s package contained. 174 GAVAN McCORMACK
In its demand for an uncompromising stance towards North Korea, the National Association for the Rescue of Japanese Abducted by North Korea (Sukuukai) is linked in a loose front with neo-nationalist organiza- tions calling for recovery of national pride, adoption of an orthodox and ‘‘correct’’ history and promotion of patriotism, morality and family val- ues as the core of national identity. Revision of the constitution and of the Fundamental Law of Education is part of the agenda. Anyone in- volved in the attempt to achieve normalization faced virulent denuncia- tion. Pyongyang-oriented organizations and individuals were abused and intimidated, and huge crowds gathered in Niigata to heckle and abuse the crew and passengers of Mangyongbong (the sole regular communication between Japan and North Korea).23 When a time bomb was set at the residence of the Foreign Ministry official who in 2001–2002 played a key role in negotiating with Pyongyang, Tokyo’s popular and powerful Gov- ernor, Ishihara Shintaro¯ , promptly declared his understanding – ‘‘He got what was coming to him’’. (Challenged, he said he had not meant to sup- port terror, but added that Tanaka ‘‘deserved to die ten thousand deaths’’.) During 2004, bills were passed into law with the support of 80 per cent of members of the National Diet and much of popular opinion to allow the imposition of sanctions and the banning of North Korean ships from Japan port entry unless Japanese demands were met.24 Sato¯ Katsumi, who as chairman of Sukuukai andheadofthe Contemporary Korea Institute has become one of the most influential people in the country, insisted that North Korea was run by a terrorist, dictatorial fascist regime, and there could be no way of dealing with it other than by demands to which it would have to submit unconditionally. The Koizumi government would be ‘‘blown away’’ if it softened its stance.25 Prime Minister Koizumi himself, however, remained aloof. Asked his impression of his North Korean opposite number, Koizumi told the Diet that‘‘Iguessformanyhisimageisthat of a dictator, fearful and weird, but when you actually meet and talk with him he is mild-mannered and cheerful, quick to make jokes . . . quick-witted.’’26 Having met and talked with Kim Jong Il, twice, he confirmed the view of South Korean Presi- dent Kim Dae Jung and US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, among others, that Kim was a man to do business with. So keen was Kim to talk with George W. Bush that he suggested Koizumi provide the music so that they could sing together till their throats became sore.27 Koizumi’s impression contrasted sharply with the US president’s sentiment that he ‘‘loathed’’ Kim Jong Il and could not possibly deal directly with him, and with Vice President Cheney’s view that you do not negotiate with evil, you defeat it.28 Subsequently, Koizumi pledged to normalize the relationship within his remaining two years of office, if JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 175 possible within a single year.29 In the event, it was a promise he failed to implement.
North Korea and the Northeast Asian agenda
North Korea was once bizarrely accused by George W. Bush of belong- ing to an ‘‘axis of evil’’. It might better be seen, however, as an axis of policy, both for Japan and for the United States. For Japan, it is at least in large part fear of and hostility towards North Korea that justify cling- ing to its alliance with the United States, sending troops to Iraq (and in December 2004, against substantial popular opposition,30 extending their mission by one year), paying huge sums to subsidize the continuing US occupation of Iraq, and giving positive and precious support to the Bush government’s economic policy. Few in Japan believed the war on Iraq in 2003 was justified or the subsequent prognosis good, but Prime Minister Koizumi’s explanation that Japan had to support the United States in Iraq because in a crunch with North Korea only the United States, not the United Nations, would cometoitsaidseemedcredible.31 In return for the Japanese troop commitment, the US government specifically promised to support Japan’s position on the abductions. At the Texas teˆte-a`-teˆte in May 2003 when the deal was done, a senior LDP official was quoted describing it this way: Japanese forces to Iraq in exchange for US support for the Japanese position on North Korean issues, espe- cially the abduction issue.32 Koizumi’s loyalty to George W. Bush appeared sincere and disingenu- ous. Under the Pentagon’s global military reorganization, the Japanese military was slowly being transformed from a ‘‘Self Defense’’ force con- fined by its constitution to a role as ‘‘the minimum necessary force for the defence of Japan’’ to an integral part of a US-commanded global anti-terror force, with responsibilities through the ‘‘arc of instability’’ ex- tending from Korea to the Horn of Africa.33 The US government pre- scription for Japan to embrace the roleofbecomingthe‘‘BritainofEast Asia’’, i.e. to develop the capacity to fight alongside US forces in matters deemed in Washington to be necessary for ‘‘collective security’’, would have little chance of adoption without North Korea.34 So closely integrated has Japan become in Washington’s frame that the head of the LDP’s Policy Research Council, Kyuma Fumio, describes the Japanese expression of support for the war in Iraq in these terms: ‘‘I think it [Japan] had no choice. After all it is like an American state.’’35 In similar vein, Gotoda Masaharu, the grand old man of the Liberal Democratic Party and former deputy prime minister, in September 2004 referred to Japan as a ‘‘vassal state’’ (zokkoku) of the United States.36 176 GAVAN McCORMACK
If North Korea is thus an ‘‘axis’’ on which large policy questions re- volve in Japan, it is no less so for the United States. The United States too is on the horns of a dilemma: neo-conservative moralists cannot tolerate the Pyongyang regime and are inclined to push it until regime change is accomplished, but to eliminate that threat might also be to un- dermine the empire, since it is precisely the ‘‘North Korean threat’’ that today justifies the continuing US occupation of its chain of bases in Japan and South Korea, the insistence on the adoption by both countries of hugely expensive missile defence systems and the substantial forces com- mitted by both countries to the multinational force in Iraq. The United States has made clear that any attempt by Japan to pursue an indepen- dent foreign policy would not be tolerated. As the Rand Report put it in 2001, the thought that Japan might one day begin to ‘‘walk its own walk’’, intent on becoming the ‘‘Japan of the Far East’’ rather than the ‘‘Britain of the Far East’’, is a nightmare comparable to, if not worse than, 9/11. Japan must ‘‘continue to rely on US protection’’, and any attempt to sub- stitute for that reliance an entente with China would ‘‘deal a fatal blow to U.S. political and military influence in East Asia’’.37 ‘‘North Korea’’ functions nicely to justify this. Koizumi was able to ride the two horses of reconciliation with North Korea and subordinate service of the United States without major stumble (albeit the former horse was hobbled following his attempts to ride it in both 2002 and 2004). The Six-Party Talks formula, however, chosen by the United States in 2003 as a device to maximize pressure on North Korea, began to serve as a forum for the rather different agenda of a Northeast, or perhaps East, Asian community. In that context, it is likely the stance initially promoted by Koizumi will become more difficult. Since the allegation of a North Korean secret uranium enrichment pro- gramme was launched in 2002, it became a central plank in the US case and the most contentious issue dividing Washington from the other powers interested in North Korea. Pyongyang insists it made no such ‘‘confession’’, and China, Russia and South Korea all doubt the US claim.38 The Talks’ Chinese chair, Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi, emerged from a futile August 2003 session complaining that US policy towards North Korea was ‘‘the main problem we are facing’’.39 The unity of purpose around the Beijing table to which Washington in 2004 and early 2005 often referred was more and more difficult to discern in practice. South Korea, China and Russia have constantly doubted the US intelligence on the high enriched uranium programme. Russia’s top nuclear official said in 2005 that he did not believe that North Korea had any nuclear weapons at all.40 South Korea’s President Roh shocked Washington in November 2004 by his references to North Korea as hav- ing ‘‘some justification’’ for the right to develop nuclear weapons as a de- JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 177 terrent,41 and in March 2005 shocked Japan by using an almost identical expression to that of the North Korean Foreign Ministry six weeks ear- lier, referring to the pain of Koreans over forced labour and comfort women as ‘‘thousands and tens of thousands times’’ greater than Japa- nese pain over the abductions.42 South Korea’s Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon said, ‘‘The United States and other partners must come up with a more creative and realistic proposal so that North Korea can come to the negotiating table as soon as possible.’’43 Following a special tour of Asian capitals by Michael Green, senior di- rector for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, to insist its evi- dence on North Korea’s covert enriched uranium case was incontrover- tible, the South Korean National Intelligence Service reported to the country’s parliament in February 2005 that North Korea might have some components but was ‘‘unlikely to be able to produce nuclear weapons’’.44 When Washington declared that (following the Green mission) China had at last seen the light on the same matter, its claim was promptly brushed aside by none other than the Chinese foreign minister, Lee Zhaoxing (formerly Chinese ambassador to the United States, 1998– 2001).45 In another context, Lee also said, ‘‘[W]e wish the U.S. side would go further to adopt a flexible and practical attitude on the issue.’’46 With these huge gaps in understanding, and with the governments of South Korea, Russia and China basically ignoring Washington as they move ahead with multiple schemes for energy and transport and commu- nications links with North Korea,47 the idea that the Six-Party Talks were functioning as an instrument for the imposition of Washington’s will seemed far-fetched. Till early 2005, Japan held its counsel, maintaining its stance as faithful US supporter in the Six-Party Talks forum. In late February, however, the Chinese government sought Japan’s help to persuade the United States to soften its stance, in other words to bring the United States to respect the majority will of the conference group.48 What began as a US attempt to mobilize regional powers to advance its policy objectives looked to be turning into the reverse. How Japan responds to these two pressures, from China (and other regional countries, especially South Korea) on the one hand and from the United States on the other, on this particular issue and increasingly in general, will decide its future.
Conclusion
The national mood in early twenty-first-century Japan is such that rage over crimes committed against it – the abductions – triumphs over rea- son, injured virtue over policy. Sympathy for a people who have endured 178 GAVAN McCORMACK much through the horrendous twentieth century and where more than 6 million people still depend on the help of the world community for their survival is almost non-existent. Politicians and media figures seemed to have lost the capacity to imagine how the world might look from a North Korean perspective. Prime Minister Koizumi was a paradoxical politician. Faithful to Bush in the Indian Ocean and Iraq, he had a different eye on Japan’s immedi- ate neighbourhood and an intuitive grasp of the contradiction between Washington’s global hegemony project and the enterprise of constructing that community. While stubbornly insisting on annual visits to the Yasu- kuni shrine, which outrage neighbouring Asia, and cooperating with apparent conviction in the United States’ post-9/11 mission in Iraq and elsewhere, he pursued normalization of relations with North Korea as his personal political mission and declared his faith in the future of the Northeast Asian region as a community. His repeated statements of commitment to normalization of relations with North Korea pitted him against a powerful national political and media coalition for ‘‘regime change’’. Abe Shinzo¯ , instrumental in frus- trating Koizumi’s 2002 mission and the chief government spokesman for a hard-line, sanctions position after the2004visit,becameextremelypop- ular and eventually succeeded Koizumi as prime minister in September 2006. Late in 2004, he was speaking, not, like Koizumi, of normalization within a year but, like US neo-conservatives, about regime change and a ‘‘post-Communist Korean peninsula’’.49 North Korea looks a crazy and awful place, and in many respects it probably is. But it is both sinned against and sinning. Its demand for re- lief from steady nuclear intimidation should have been heeded long ago, and its plea for ‘‘normalization’’ (an end to sanctions, diplomatic and eco- nomic relations with the United States and Japan, and security guaran- tees) as the price of abandonment of its nuclear programme, often re- ferred to as ‘‘blackmail’’, is not unreasonable. It surely should not have had to wait half a century for a normalizedrelationshipwithitsformer colonial ruler. Despite the tensions and the risks of the confrontation over nuclear and missile issues, glimpses could be caught, in September 2002 and again in May 2004, of a radically different East Asia – one of reconcilia- tion, normalization, economic cooperation. The processes of regional de- nuclearization and demilitarization, accelerated North–South Korean co- operation (leading ultimately to reunification) and a dismantling of the encrusted structures of the partisan state in North Korea depend now on nothing so much as the recovery and continuation of the normalization processes launched in 2002 by Prime Minister Koizumi and Chairman Kim Jong Il. JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 179
Acknowledgements
This chapter updates and refines Chapter 6 of my book Target North Korea: Pushing North Korea to the Brink of Nuclear Catastrophe,New York: Target Books, 2004, dealing with Japan–North Korea relations spanning the 2002 Koizumi visit to Pyongyang.
Notes
1. ‘‘Roh Tells Japan to Sincerely Apologize for Sex-Slave, Forced Labor Misdeeds’’, Japan Times, 2 March 2005. 2. Tessa Morris-Suzuki, ‘‘Exposing Japan’s Dark Role in Koreans’ Return’’, Asahi shim- bun, 26 November 2004; Tessa Morris-Suzuki, ‘‘Japan’s Hidden Role in the ‘Return’ of Zainichi Koreans to North Korea’’, ZNet, 7 February 2005, hhttp://www.zmag.org/ content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=17&ItemID=7194i (accessed 21 February 2007). 3. Lee U-jong and Lee Young-hwa, Kim Jong-il nyu¯mon – Kita Cho¯sen sho¯gun sama no shinjitsu, Tokyo: Asuka shinsha, 2003. 4. Wada Haruki, ‘‘Jiyu¯ minshuto¯tokitaCho¯ sen’’, part 6 of ‘‘Kensho¯ – Nicho¯ kankei’’, Ronza, August 2004, pp. 76–87, at p. 83. 5. Wada Haruki, ‘‘Rachi sareta kokuron o datsu shite’’, Sekai, January 2004, pp. 248–261, passim. 6. Fujita Yutaka, ‘‘Zainichi Korian no kodomotachi ni taisuru iyaragase jittai cho¯ sa’’, Sekai, October 2003, pp. 248–254. 7. Wada, ‘‘Jiyu¯ minshuto to Kita Cho¯ sen’’, p. 78. 8. Nonaka Hiromu, Ro¯hei wa shinazu, 2004, p. 295. 9. Wada Haruki, ‘‘Kikoku undo¯ wa nan datta no ka’’, part 4 of ‘‘Kensho¯–Nicho¯ kankei’’, Ronza, June 2004, pp. 132–143, at p. 143. 10. ‘‘Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration’’, 17 September 2002, hhttp://www.mofa.go.jp/ region/asia-paci/n_korea/pmv0209/pyongyang.htmli (accessed 5 February 2007). 11. Wada Haruki, ‘‘Can North Korea’s Perestroika Succeed?’’, Sekai, November 2002; En- glish translation by Gavan McCormack at hhttp://www.japanfocus.org/products/details/ 2134i (accessed 5 February 2007). 12. See Hankyoreh Sinmoon, 18 and 24 September 2002, quoted in Yoon Kooncha, ‘‘Sore de mo yappari Nicho¯ no seijo¯ ka o’’, Shu¯kan kinyo¯bi, 18 October 2002, p. 10. 13. For Selig Harrison’s comments following a visit to Pyongyang in mid-2004, Inter- view, ‘‘Harrison Faults Bush Administration for Rejecting Step-by-Step Accords to Halt North Korea’s Nuclear Program’’, Council on Foreign Relations, 10 May 2004, hhttp://www.cfr.org/pub7013/selig_s_harrison_bernard_gwertzman/harrison_faults_ bush_administration_for_rejecting_stepbystep_accords_to_halt_north_koreas_nuclear_ program.htmli (accessed 5 February 2007). 14. McCormack, Target North Korea: Pushing North Korea to the Brink of Nuclear Catas- trophe, New York: Target Books, 2004, p. 136. 15. The case of the ‘‘comfort women’’ is complicated by the association of government with the nominal ‘‘People’s Fund’’ for compensation, on which see C. Sarah Soh, ‘‘Japan’s National/Asian Women’s Fund for ‘Comfort Women’ ’’, Pacific Affairs, Vol. 76, No. 2, 2003, pp. 209–233. 16. Korea Institute for National Unification, White Paper on Human Rights in North Korea, Seoul: KINU, 2001, p. 118. 180 GAVAN McCORMACK
17. NHK TV, 22 May 2004. 18. Quoted in Takashima Hatsuhisa, ‘‘What Are the Media Telling Us?’’, Gaiko Forum, No. 12, Winter 2005, pp. 12–23, at p. 19. 19. The polls showed 67 per cent were positive and 31 per cent not positive about it. On the question of the opening of diplomatic relations, 47 per cent were in favour, considerably more than the 38 per cent opposed. Asahi shimbun, 23 May 2004. 20. ‘‘Ikotsu, Megumi-san no betsujin’’, Asahi shimbun, 9 December 2004. 21. Asahi shimbun, 11 December 2004. 22. David Cyranoski, ‘‘DNA Is Burning Issue as Japan and Korea Clash over Kidnaps’’, Nature, Vol. 433, No. 3, 2005, p. 445. 23. On 25 August 2003, the crowd included 1,500 prefectural police, 400 ministry officials (to inspect the ship), 400 rightists from 80 different organizations in about 100 special vans, and 300 media representatives, some riding in helicopters and on ships. 24. ‘‘North Korean Sanctions’’, Asahi shimbun, 13 March 2004. 25. Sato¯ , speaking to a public meeting in Tokyo, 18 April 2004, my paraphrased translation. 26. ‘‘Kin so¯ shoki wa atama no tenkai hayai hito’’, Asahi shimbun, 28 May 2004. 27. ‘‘Rokusha kyogi – Beikoku mo ugoku toki da’’, Asahi shimbun, editorial, 22 June 2004. 28. Cheney in December 2003, quoted in Jim Lobe, ‘‘Realism Takes Root in Washington’’, Asia Times, 26 June 2004. 29. ‘‘Nicho¯ no kokko¯seijo¯ka,shusho¯ ‘ichinen inai ni’ ’’, Asahi shimbun, 3 July 2004. 30. Opposition was 63.3 per cent in the Asahi poll at the beginning of November, and 60 per cent in a Kyodo poll in December. 31. Asahi shimbun, 28 January 2004. 32. Asahi shimbun, 19 March 2004. 33. Asai Motofumi, ‘‘Bushu senryaku to yuji hosei’’, Gunji mondai shiryo, February 2003, pp. 8–15. 34. The ‘‘Armitage Report’’ of October 2000: Institute for National Strategic Studies, ‘‘The United States and Japan: Advancing toward a Mature Partnership’’, INSS Special Re- port, Washington, National Defense University, 11 October 2000, hhttp://www.ndu.edu/ inss/strforum/SR_01/SFJAPAN.pdfi. 35. Asahi shimbun, 19 February 2003. 36. Interview, Asahi shimbun, 21 September 2004. 37. Zalmay Khalilzad et al., The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture, MR-1315-AF, Santa Monica: RAND, June 2001, p. 15, hhttp://www.rand. org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1315/index.htmli (accessed 5 February 2007). 38. Georgy Toloraya, ‘‘Overcoming the Korean Crisis: Short- and Long-term Options and Implications by a Russian Perspective’’, International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 15–39. 39. McCormack, Target North Korea, p. 177. 40. ‘‘Russian Official: N. Korea Has No Nuclear Weapons’’, Associated Press, 10 March 2005. 41. Joongang daily, 14 November 2004. 42. Japan Times, 2 March 2005. 43. Quoted in Joseph A. B. Winder, ‘‘North Korea Watch’’, Korea Economic Institute, Korea Insight, Vol. 6, No. 11, 2004, pp. 3–4. 44. ‘‘N. Korea Has No Facility for Enriched Uranium’’, Agence France-Presse, 28 February 2005. 45. Joseph Kahn, ‘‘China Doubts U.S. Data on North Korean Nuclear Work’’, New York Times, 7 March 2005. 46. Quoted in Winder, ‘‘North Korea Watch’’, p. 3. JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA 181
47. Summarized in Henshubu, ‘‘Dokyumento – gekido no Nanboku kankei’’, Sekai, Decem- ber 2004, pp. 252–259. 48. ‘‘China Asks Japan to Convince U.S. to Be Flexible over N. Korea’’, Kyodo, 28 Febru- ary 2005. 49. Quoted in Jim Lobe, ‘‘Hawks Push Regime Change in N. Korea’’, Inter Press Service, 25 November 2004. 182
10 Korean security dilemmas: A Russian perspective
Georgy Bulychev
Russia has never limited its vision of the complex problems of the Ko- rean peninsula to ‘‘hard’’ military and political aspects, however impor- tant they are. Concentrating only on such aspects (with nuclear and missile issues now given disproportionate attention) is what a Russian proverb calls putting the cart before the horse. Such an approach cannot lead to stability in Korea, as vividly shown by the acquiring by the Dem- ocratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea) of nuclear weapons as a result of foreign pressure and the ignoring by the ‘‘interna- tional community’’ of what North Korea sees as its security concerns. A multisectoral approach is essential as the only way to break the vi- cious spiral. The resolution of even acute ‘‘hard’’ security issues (not lim- ited to the problem of North Korean weapons of mass destruction) needs to be coordinated with that of long-term non-military factors – primarily what security and development model the DPRK would acquire (which would in turn shape the future of the whole Korean nation). An effective approach would centre on assisting the progress of North Korea and its society as a whole and providing for the national security of the country. It requires recognition of the simple fact that a nation of more than 20 million hard-working people cannot be left forever in a state of back- wardness and forced isolation because some in the outside world argue that North Korea must be isolated in order to help prevent military con- flict. The real cause of their neglect is political dislike of the system and the geopolitical interests of foreign powers. The medicine should not be more dangerous than the ailment. A vio-
Reconstituting Korean security: A policy primer, Smith (ed), United Nations University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-92-808-1144-5 A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 183 lent solution would be a catastrophe for the overall security environment, especially human security, possibly leading to huge loss of life and degra- dation of vast areas. The alternative is an evolutionary approach. A pos- itive perspective requires a coordinated approach (embracing not only the two Koreas, but also at least the five most closely involved countries) around the vector of social and economic developments, including human security, in and around North Korea. This task involves a serious and all- embracing negotiation process, based on political will. Otherwise, it is conceivable that singling out the issue of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and trying to resolve it would bring not an in- crease but a dangerous decrease in human security both in North Korea and in the surrounding countries. For example, weakening the Pyong- yang political regime through sanctions and isolation (even if this stops short of its overthrow) in a quest to eliminate its WMD potential could result in uncontrolled migration, transborder crime, the spread of infec- tious diseases, not to mention severe suffering among the North Korean population. Therefore, changing security approaches is of paramount importance – and the Russian position is consistent with this. This chapter therefore focuses on the Russian experience of an ap- proach to Korean security that is broader than that usually perceived by the West. I first analyse some lessons from history, then turn to the change in Russian policies in the 1990s. Next I explain Russia’s initiatives vis-a`-vis North Korea and the Russian response to the nuclear crisis. The chapter concludes with some suggestions for policy options designed to defuse the systemic crisis in Korea. The answer, I argue, lies not in sing- ling out nuclear or other strictly military issues, but in a comprehensive gradualist approach, addressing political and military security and devel- opment as inseparable factors. What is needed is multilateral policy change – not coercing or isolating Pyongyang, but assisting the regime to evolve.
Russia and Korean security: The grim lessons of history
After the DPRK was created with Soviet assistance in the wake of the Second World War, Moscow continued to support Pyongyang (often without due reciprocity), although lacking the leverage to control its be- haviour. Moscow was unhappy not only about the foreign escapades of its unpredictable ally, but also about its harsh domestic policies, which were far more cruel than those of denounced Stalinism. However, ‘‘soft’’ security issues fell victim to hard issues, as a result of the USSR’s global confrontation with the United States, of which the relationship with the DPRK was a part. As Moscow’s relations with the West improved, the 184 GEORGY BULYCHEV frustration mounted, leading to a crisis in USSR–DPRK ties. The open- ing of formal relations with the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Ko- rea) and Russia’s joining with international efforts to pressure North Korea (while paying more attention to humanitarian aspects in bilateral relations) did not, however, bring the expected security and economic benefits to Russia. The interdependence of non-security factors with national security is- sues is characteristic of the entire 120 years of Russian involvement in Korea; for much of the time the country of ‘‘Morning Calm’’ (as North Korea is sometimes called) was a trouble-spot for Russian politicians, a headache for bordering areas and a source of arguments in Russia’s expert community and political circles. In ‘‘peaceful’’ periods, however, Korea was much lower on the Russian foreign policy agenda than in the United States, China or Japan. Russian policy was reactive rather than proactive, which often itself led to further problems. After signing the first official treaty with Korea in 1884, Russia entered into a competition with other colonial powers for domination, which St Petersburg lost. The Russo-Japanese war of 1904–1905, one of the rea- sons for which was the struggle over control of Korea, was disastrous not only for external security but for the very fate of Imperial Russia. The inability of the Tsarist state to manage the war effort and the subse- quent defeat of Russian troops led to widespread popular dissent, which resulted in the first Russian revolution of 1905, in turn paving the way for the Bolshevik takeover of the state in 1917. The tragedy of the Russian Varyag cruiser, which perished in the Korean port of Chemulpo (Inchon) in an unequal battle with the Japanese, became for generations of Rus- sian people the symbol of personal bravery in the face of imminent de- feat caused by treachery and the overall weakening of the country. Korea therefore did not have positive connotations for Russia.
The DPRK as a capricious partner
After the division of the peninsula in 1945 as a result of the Yalta agree- ments between the USSR, the United States and the United Kingdom, peace did not arrive in Korea – partly because of the Soviet–US global confrontation. The experience of the Korean war of 1950–1953 was trau- matic for Stalin: he had reluctantly supported Kim Il Sung in his quest to bring communism to the South of Korea but this had only resulted in the US interference and almost led to a Third World War. Stalin’s dreams of ‘‘world socialist revolution’’ were shattered forever. After the war, fol- lowing the dictates of ideology, the USSR had to make new sacrifices to rebuild the DPRK and raise the standard of living of the population. The Soviets constructed more than 70 infrastructural and industrial facilities, A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 185 which became the backbone of the North Korean energy, metallurgy, chemicals, construction materials, machine-building and other sectors.1 TheDPRKprovedtobeaverycapriciousandunreliableally.Al- though the USSR was not just the ‘‘spiritual father’’ of the DPRK but di- rectly helped establish North Korean statehood at the end of the 1940s,2 ‘‘you’d make a mistake (bluntly stated a well-versed Soviet expert) to think that Kim Il Sung was a Moscow man’’.3 Frequenting the USSR em- bassy in Pyongyang in the evenings to play billiards and drink tea in the late 1950s, in the daytime Kim planned the purging of pro-Soviet cadres.4 Kim Il Sung exploited the strategic importance of North Korea to Mos- cow in the Cold War rivalry to blackmail Moscow into supporting his at- tempts to overthrow the South Korean regime (as late as the 1970s, in the wake of the fall of Saigon). As a result, the Soviet Union was dragged into constant confrontation with the United States on its ‘‘eastern flank’’ in addition to in Europe. The seizing of the USS Pueblo in 1968, the ‘‘axe murder’’ of US servicemen in the Demilitarized Zone in 1976 and assas- sination attempts on South Korean presidents forced Moscow to inter- vene to support its unmanageable ally, which earned the reputation as the enfant terrible of the socialist world system along with Albania (the latter, however, having no relations with Moscow whatsoever). At the same time, the USSR was barred from developing useful economic coop- eration with the rising ‘‘South Korean dragon’’ – unlike in Europe, where Moscow’s economic ties with US allies flourished. Kim Il Sung skilfully used the rift and rivalry between Moscow and Beijing to demonstrate his independence and get aid from both. For in- stance, while preparing the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mu- tual Assistance with the USSR, Kim secretly negotiated a similar treaty with China; they were signed within one week of each other in July 1961. After Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev failed to visit Pyongyang and to provide weapons free of charge,5 Kim Il Sung convened a plenary session of the ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee that openly criticized Khrushchev. In the 1960s Kim sided with the Chinese in their struggle with Moscow – in 1963, critical articles to that effect were pub- lished in North Korean media.6
Economic relations
After relations with China soured in the wake of the Cultural Revolution, Kim Il Sung tried to mend fences with Moscow (two secret meetings with Leonid Brezhnev were arranged in 1966) and to obtain more military and economic aid from the Soviet Union. Kim never stopped openly criticiz- ing the USSR to close comrades in the DPRK and continued that criti- cism in domestic propaganda, sometimes going so far as to decry what 186 GEORGY BULYCHEV he called the ‘‘dominationism’’ of Moscow.7 In the 1980s, Kim Il Sung, disapproving of Chinese free market reforms, turned again to the USSR for military and economic assistance – making a landmark visit to the So- viet Union in 1984. In 1985, the USSR signed several new agreements on economic and technical cooperation with the DPRK, including one that provided for the construction of two Light-Water Reactor (LWR) power stations to be located at Sinpo in the east of the country (in the 1990s, the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, KEDO, used the same site for the development of LWRs based on earlier research by Russian geologists). New armaments were shipped to North Korea and the possibility of technology transfer in weaponry production, including MiG-29 fighters, was explored. Interaction between the USSR and the DPRK in the 1980s not only centred on the military-security sectors but was also, very importantly, geared towards economic development and improving the livelihood of the people. At the end of the 1980s about 60 per cent of North Korea’s foreign trade was with the USSR, with Soviet exports amounting to double its imports from North Korea. Under the then USSR–DPRK clearance system, the North Koreans did not compensate Russia for the export/import imbalance but instead received refinancing credits, in addi- tion to the long-term credit they also obtained from the USSR. By 1990, DPRK debt to the USSR had reached 3.8 billion roubles – equivalent to US$6 billion at the agreed rate of exchange (including interest, the debt amounted to nearly US$8 billion by 2005).8 The North Koreans never paid the debt and talks on debt restructuring did not start until the begin- ning of the new century.9 Eventually, in November 1990 Moscow insisted on free currency settling of trade deals as opposed to the clearing-based system. The cessation of economic aid and economic cooperation from Russia at the end of the 1980s spelled disaster for the DPRK economy, and for the standard of living of the population. The end of Russian economic support, combined with reduced assistance from China, contributed to the economic crisis and humanitarian catastrophe of the 1990s in the DPRK; Western assistance could not substitute for the previously sub- stantial amounts of Soviet and Chinese aid.
North Korea’s view of perestroika
Kim Il Sung naturally disapproved of ‘‘perestroika’’ in the USSR; he presciently predicted it would lead to the collapse of the communist sys- tem and was disturbed by the end of ‘‘cooperation based on proletarian internationalism’’. Kim viewed the changes in the USSR as the greatest threat to national security the DPRK had faced since the war (the pros- A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 187 pect of the withdrawal of the Russian ‘‘security umbrella’’ was, as the North Koreans bluntly told USSR Foreign Minister Eduard Shevard- nadze in 1990, the main impulse for nuclear weapons development). The North Koreans were also enraged and frustrated by the USSR’s normal- ization of relations with Seoul. From 1988, prior to the establishment of formal recognition of each other, a surge in USSR–ROK bilateral trade took place after the ruling Politburo of the USSR permitted direct economic dealings between USSR entities and ROK companies. The USSR took the decision despite Pyongyang’s opposition after a landmark speech by President Gorbachev in Krasnoyarsk in September 1988 in which he talked of the possibility of economic cooperation with South Korea.10 I witnessed those first contacts and can testify how much enthu- siasm ROK businesspeople had then about Russian markets and what high hopes there were in Moscow, St Petersburg and the Russian Far East with respect to the great prospects of economic relations with this hitherto inaccessible newly industrialized country (as it was officially re- ferred to in academic publications).11 In this period, economic consider- ations were given priority over military and ‘‘hard’’ security ones, per- haps to the detriment of Russia’s overall regional security position. After the first-ever summit meeting between Gorbachev and ROK President Roh Tae Woo in June 1990 in San Francisco, arranged by So- viet reformers,12 diplomatic recognition was finally granted to Seoul in September 1990. The decision had been to start relations on 1 January 1991, but Foreign Minister Shevardnadze had become so enraged by his treatment in Pyongyang in the summer of 1990 that he had single- handedly brought the recognition date forward three months – in so do- ing robbing Russian diplomats of leverage to solve outstanding bilateral issues, including an economic cooperation package and embassy prop- erty.13 Today, it is difficult not to conclude that the USSR leadership acted in a rather hasty and undiplomatic manner when taking the long overdue action of recognizing the ROK, not considering North Korean feelings and the mentality of a besieged country.14 That in turn under- mined both the Russian position and the stability of the neighbouring region. After Boris Yeltsin’s government took power in Moscow in 1991, the Russian approach to Korea underwent a fundamental change – Russia and North Korea became ideological opposites. The DPRK was trans- formed into a laughing stock and a despicable country in the eyes of the new democratically minded e´lite. ‘‘Human security’’ issues thus came to the forefront of practical politics, although the results were ambivalent. North Koreans were wary lest Russia tried ‘‘exporting’’ its democratiza- tion experience to the DPRK (Yeltsin seemingly did not mind US and South Korean efforts to ‘‘open up’’ the DPRK) and curtailed their ties 188 GEORGY BULYCHEV with the ‘‘traitors of the socialist cause’’. In the early 1990s, Moscow joined the US-led pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear pro- gramme: it froze all nuclear cooperation with the DPRK in 1993, embar- goed military cooperation, and supported possible sanctions against North Korea.15 The security support to Pyongyang that had been based on the 1961 al- liance treaty, and was inherited by Russia as the continuing state of the USSR, was withdrawn. In January 1992, Russia told the North Koreans that it would activate Article 1 of the treaty, providing for assistance in the event of war, only in the case of an unprovoked attack against the DPRK and in accordance with Russian constitutional procedures, that is with the approval of parliament. Moreover, Russia itself would deter- mine in accordance with the UN Charter whether the ‘‘state of war’’ was caused by DPRK actions. The North Koreans refused to exchange letters to this effect and responded that they were not counting on Russia’s as- sistance anyway – calling the treaty ‘‘an empty shell’’.16 The whole secu- rity equation in the region changed as North Korean leaders became afraid that Russia would not object to actions against Pyongyang by the United States, South Korea and Japan. Russian technicians left the DPRK and discontinued new construction and also the servicing of key industrial facilities, cutting essential supplies of spare parts and materials, without which equipment cannot function (for example, high pressure pipes at the power plants should be replaced every four years).17 The results for the economy and economic security of the population were disastrous. Many facilities stopped functioning al- together and others ran at a fraction of capacity (for example, the key Kim Chaek steelworks and the Sungri oil refinery in Songbon). Personnel were left unemployed and without the means of subsistence. There was a drastic reduction in the production of basic commodities and services. Bilateral trade plummeted from a height of 1.4 billion roubles (approxi- mately US$2 billion at the then exchange rate) in 1987 to US$75 million in 1997; and Russia’s share in DPRK trade decreased from one-third to 4–6 per cent.18 Moscow did not see the anticipated increase in security in its neigh- bourhood. Instead, North Koreans intensified their nuclear weapons de- velopment programmes and Russia was dragged into a dangerous cam- paign of coercion and abandonment of North Korea, a campaign that could have resulted in a war at the borders of Russia even without its consent. Seoul used the new relationshipwithMoscowtodrawRussiato its side in inter-Korean rivalry, with the obvious aim of undermining the Pyongyang regime. In addition, the honeymoon in Moscow–Seoul eco- nomic relations proved to be very short-lived. The USSR did receive credits from Seoul but these disappeared into the black hole of the un- A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 189 manageable Soviet foreign debt and poisoned relations for the next 10 or more years. Investment and the ‘‘mutually beneficial deals’’ that had lured Soviet leaders were slow in coming.
Policy discourses
In the 1990s, Moscow was sidelined and regional security decreased, thus igniting a heated discussion on the Russian role in Korea and its security options among several schools of thought. Even democratically minded Russian experts grudgingly admitted that the framework of the Cold War confrontational impasse on the peninsula had resulted in stable and predictable security relations, whereas the new system of relations around the Korean peninsula had proved to be less satisfactory for Russia. Security and humanitarian conditions in the North had seriously deteriorated and the Western policy of a ‘‘soft land- ing’’ – in effect imploding North Korea and bringing it under Southern control – had helped to involve China, which did not want a unified Ko- rea dependent on the United States with US troops on its territory and at its doorstep. Russia, at that time suffering from an ‘‘identity crisis’’, did very little to prevent the deterioration in the military and political sit- uation, to the extent that a US military strike on North Korea was only narrowly averted (by the June 1994 visit of former US president Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang). Moscow underutilized even its residual capacity to influence the settlement of the 1993–1994 nuclear crisis – owing to its severing of relations with Pyongyang and ignoring its own economic and humanitarian interests. In the wake of the bilateral US–DPRK settlement of the crisis, Washing- ton’s role in Korean affairs increased dramatically. China’s importance also grew because it acted as the virtually single ‘‘defender’’ of Pyong- yang. Russia’s political and economic interests and security were affected negatively as it lost markets, and refugees and economic migrants be- came a major headache. The Russian role was in effect limited to that of observer. The other players in the Korean ‘‘game’’ viewed Russia as weak and disregarded Russia’s interests. The 2þ2 (the DPRK and South Korea, the United States and China) negotiating mechanism created in 1996 left Russia ‘‘out in the cold’’ without a role to play in the settle- ment of disputes (Moscow’s 1994 suggestion of a 2þ4 formula to include Russia and Japan was turned down). In domestic politics, the ‘‘betrayal’’ by the new Russian rulers of a tra- ditional ally became an issue for opposition critics of the government. In the ensuing discussion on Korean policy, several schools of thought com- petedwitheachother. 190 GEORGY BULYCHEV
A small group of Russian ‘‘conservatives’’ (including some long-time North Korea experts, who dealt with Pyongyang and lived there for de- cades, leftists, and some sections of the security and military establish- ment) remain sympathetic to Pyongyang’s cause, seeing it as a righteous struggle for national independence and sovereignty against an ‘‘imperial- istic threat’’. These conservatives do not support the DPRK political sys- tem but they express an understanding of the issues that fuelled North Korea’s repressive policies and nuclear ambitions. They argue that Pyongyang’s defiance of US pressure sets an important example for the struggle against ‘‘unipolar dominance’’. They further argue that Pyong- yang’s methods, such as toying with the WMD threat, should not be supported but that Moscow should help Pyongyang and prevent the DPRK from being ‘‘swallowed by’’ external forces. ‘‘Progressivists’’ comprise a broad stratum of Russian political, aca- demic and media circles – notably political scientists with exposure to the West, experts in non-proliferation, and renowned liberal journalists, usually having no background in Korean studies – and are staunchly against North Korea. They argue that the existence of such a brutal total- itarian regime is a direct descendant of a Stalinism that has been de- nounced in Russia and is an embarrassment for humanity. It is there- fore morally wrong for democratic Russia to maintain any ties with the DPRK, let alone to support it. Russia, they say, should unequivocally join the international pressure on North Korea. A policy of forcing Pyongyang to abandon its dangerous plans and behaviour would, inter alia, gain Russia important benefits in its relations with the United States. Progressivists argue that the eventual disappearance of the dictatorship is more than desirable – it will not only cause a sigh of relief in the world but eliminate once and for all the danger emanating from the Korean peninsula. These views were especially visible in the 1990s. Most of the general population, brought up on the denouncing of communism and depending for news and analysis mostly on TV and large-circulation newspapers, equally regard North Korea as an alien and dangerous place. It is the voice of the ‘‘progressivists’’ that has been heard the most in the West, especially in the United States, owing to their access to the mass media and their international connections. In the mid-2000s there have been some changes to the progressivist dominance as the mainstream Russian media have become less critical. ‘‘Pragmatists’’, comprising foreign and security policy professionals and academics specializing in regional affairs, see both views as extremist. Their attitude is that, although the North Korean regime raises little sym- pathy and all would like it to become less oppressive and more rational, toppling it in order to get rid of the WMD threat or for geopolitical rea- sons is simply not cost effective. The further argument is that the real prospect of such a development would only intensify North Korean A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE 191 efforts to acquire WMD as a deterrent and would undermine the non- proliferation regime. Under such conditions, a conflict would have tre- mendous negative consequences, including massive loss of life and eco- nomic destruction. According to the pragmatic logic, if we are not happy with the internal and external behaviour of this regime, there is another, non-violent way to solve the problems. The first priority is to establish an international balance of interests and to stabilize the regional status quo diplomatically; the next is to help the regime to transform itself so it is no longer an ‘‘odd man out’’. This could discourage North Korea from re- sorting to the further development of WMD to provide a deterrent ca- pacity. Such a scenario demands a multidimensional approach, focusing not just on ‘‘hard security’’ issues, but bringing into the equation eco- nomic and humanitarian factors.
A new policy concept in the 1990s
In the 1990s Russia developed a pragmatic approach based on the pre- sumption that the DPRK was not about to collapse. Russia needed to ‘‘stand on both legs’’ in Korea. It would correct the imbalance in its rela- tions with the two Koreas by regaining its leverage in North Korea on a de-ideologized basis, at the same time maintaining close cooperation with the South and pursuing international coordination on Korean issues. By the middle of the 1990s the pragmatic concept had become the cor- nerstone of Russian Korean policy. The new mantra in Moscow was that of the ‘‘balanced approach’’ – meaning respecting the DPRK’s legitimate interests and improving relations regardless of the ideological divide. Russian experts did not agree with the term ‘‘equidistance’’,19 which is used in South Korea, because it implied that Russia wanted more cordial relations with the North to ‘‘compensate’’ for unrealized expectations in its relations with the South; or that Russia would artificially check the de- velopment of relations with one Korea depending on the progress of ties with the other Korea. That was not the case. The pragmatists argued that the particularities of North Korea need to be understood.20 For North Korea, the quintessence of national identity involves issues of sovereignty and independence, not yielding to foreign pressure and struggling against victimization. A mechanical transposition of the East European experience to the Far Eastern flank of the ‘‘world socialist system’’ could not lead to useful conclusions because of the ma- jor differences in social structures and historical traditions – the most im- portant being East Asian reverence for the state rooted in the Confucian heritage. By the 1990s the DPRK had already become a nationalist-based mix of Stalinism and Oriental despotism, with a touch of theocratic ten- 192 GEORGY BULYCHEV dencies as displayed through the development of a cult around Kim Il Sung. The system is resistant to external pressure and very hard to de- stroy both from outside and from within. Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il took draconian measures to prevent any internal opposition from devel- oping. Humanitarian crises do not weaken such systems. The famine of the 1930s during Stalin’s collectivization programmes, when millions of people died, resulted in an even more belligerent regime; the experience of Mao’s ‘‘Great Leap Forward’’ in the 1950s, when an estimated 50 mil- lion people perished, is similar. Even in the wake of the demise of Kim Il Sung in 1994, Russian ex- perts never thought that North Korea would collapse like other socialist countries had in the 1990s. Soviet analysts had a different view from US, South Korean and Japanese decision-makers, who expected that the North Korean people would rise up against the dictatorship, as happened in Romania.21 Nor did Russian analysts agree that the economic, human (starvation) and political crises would necessarily cause the system to col- lapse and that the available helping hand of South Korea would aid the accomplishment of the transition.22 No watershed declaration or directive signalled the turn to a more pragmatic Russian policy in Korean affairs. Instead, subtle changes in nu- ance in the mid 1990s heralded a distinctively new pragmatic approach. Later, the new Russian priorities were summarized as follows: