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												Central and Eastern Europe Development Outlook After the Coronavirus Pandemic
CHINA-CEE INSTITUTE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK AFTER THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC Editor in Chief: Dr. Chen Xin Published by: China-CEE Institute Nonprofit Ltd. Telephone: +36-1-5858-690 E-mail: [email protected] Webpage: www.china-cee.eu Address: 1052, Budapest, Petőfi Sándor utca 11. Chief Editor: Dr. Chen Xin ISSN: 978-615-6124-29-6 Cover design: PONT co.lab Copyright: China-CEE Institute Nonprofit Ltd. The reproduction of the study or parts of the study are prohibited. The findings of the study may only be cited if the source is acknowledged. Central and Eastern Europe Development Outlook after the Coronavirus Pandemic Chief Editor: Dr. Chen Xin CHINA-CEE INSTITUTE Budapest, October 2020 Content Preface ............................................................................................................ 5 Part I POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK ..................................... 7 Albanian politics in post-pandemic era: reshuffling influence and preparing for the next elections .............................................................................................. 8 BiH political outlook after the COVID-19 pandemic ...................................... 13 Bulgarian Political Development Outlook in Post-Pandemic Era ..................... 18 Forecast of Croatian Political Events after the COVID-19 .............................. 25 Czech Political Outlook for the Post-Crisis Period .......................................... 30 Estonian political outlook after the pandemic: Are we there yet? ................... - 
												
												Statistical Inference: How Reliable Is a Survey?
Math 203, Fall 2008: Statistical Inference: How reliable is a survey? Consider a survey with a single question, to which respondents are asked to give an answer of yes or no. Suppose you pick a random sample of n people, and you find that the proportion that answered yes isp ˆ. Question: How close isp ˆ to the actual proportion p of people in the whole population who would have answered yes? In order for there to be a reliable answer to this question, the sample size, n, must be big enough so that the sample distribution is close to a bell shaped curve (i.e., close to a normal distribution). But even if n is big enough that the distribution is close to a normal distribution, usually you need to make n even bigger in order to make sure your margin of error is reasonably small. Thus the first thing to do is to be sure n is big enough for the sample distribution to be close to normal. The industry standard for being close enough is for n to be big enough so that 1 − p 1 − p n > 9 and n > 9 p p both hold. When p is about 50%, n can be as small as 10, but when p gets close to 0 or close to 1, the sample size n needs to get bigger. If p is 1% or 99%, then n must be at least 892, for example. (Note also that n here depends on p but not on the size of the whole population.) See Figures 1 and 2 showing frequency histograms for the number of yes respondents if p = 1% when the sample size n is 10 versus 1000 (this data was obtained by running a computer simulation taking 10000 samples). - 
												
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Recommendations for starting a safe school year 2020-2021, while promoting quality inclusive education for all children in Romania The opinions expressed in this document belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of UNICEF. Executive summary his document was created to support the national, county, and local authorities to plan the beginning of the school year 2020-2021 safely for children and for all the school staff, as well Tas to provide quality inclusive education throughout this unprecedented worldwide situation. The goal was to identify a set of solutions which may help reduce both the impact of the pandemic upon learning, and the gaps in terms of access to education after schools were closed from March to July 2020 in Romania. This material was drafted by a team of 18 principals involved in implementing the ”Quality inclusive education: transition from lower to upper secondary education” model, and by representatives of the county institutions in Bacău, at the initiative and coordinated by UNICEF Romania. The recommendations proposed are based on the three scenarios displayed by the Ministry of Education and Research, as well as on the experience acquired by the education experts from March until July 2020, under the circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic. The solutions presented also show the outcomes of the consultations organized at a community level on topics such as challenges, vulnerabilities, constraints, and solutions specific to each and every scenario. Special attention was paid to vulnerable students and to those at risk of school drop-out . The considerations and the proposals submitted are equally looking at removing barriers for attending education, supporting learning and guaranteeing well-being for all students, as well as supplying the necessary support for teachers, school staff, and managerial teams, for them to be able to safely provide inclusive contexts and quality education services. - 
												
												SAMPLING DESIGN & WEIGHTING in the Original
Appendix A 2096 APPENDIX A: SAMPLING DESIGN & WEIGHTING In the original National Science Foundation grant, support was given for a modified probability sample. Samples for the 1972 through 1974 surveys followed this design. This modified probability design, described below, introduces the quota element at the block level. The NSF renewal grant, awarded for the 1975-1977 surveys, provided funds for a full probability sample design, a design which is acknowledged to be superior. Thus, having the wherewithal to shift to a full probability sample with predesignated respondents, the 1975 and 1976 studies were conducted with a transitional sample design, viz., one-half full probability and one-half block quota. The sample was divided into two parts for several reasons: 1) to provide data for possibly interesting methodological comparisons; and 2) on the chance that there are some differences over time, that it would be possible to assign these differences to either shifts in sample designs, or changes in response patterns. For example, if the percentage of respondents who indicated that they were "very happy" increased by 10 percent between 1974 and 1976, it would be possible to determine whether it was due to changes in sample design, or an actual increase in happiness. There is considerable controversy and ambiguity about the merits of these two samples. Text book tests of significance assume full rather than modified probability samples, and simple random rather than clustered random samples. In general, the question of what to do with a mixture of samples is no easier solved than the question of what to do with the "pure" types. - 
												
												Summary of Human Subjects Protection Issues Related to Large Sample Surveys
Summary of Human Subjects Protection Issues Related to Large Sample Surveys U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics Joan E. Sieber June 2001, NCJ 187692 U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs John Ashcroft Attorney General Bureau of Justice Statistics Lawrence A. Greenfeld Acting Director Report of work performed under a BJS purchase order to Joan E. Sieber, Department of Psychology, California State University at Hayward, Hayward, California 94542, (510) 538-5424, e-mail [email protected]. The author acknowledges the assistance of Caroline Wolf Harlow, BJS Statistician and project monitor. Ellen Goldberg edited the document. Contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Bureau of Justice Statistics or the Department of Justice. This report and others from the Bureau of Justice Statistics are available through the Internet — http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2 Limitations of the Common Rule with respect to survey research 2 2. Risks and benefits of participation in sample surveys 5 Standard risk issues, researcher responses, and IRB requirements 5 Long-term consequences 6 Background issues 6 3. Procedures to protect privacy and maintain confidentiality 9 Standard issues and problems 9 Confidentiality assurances and their consequences 21 Emerging issues of privacy and confidentiality 22 4. Other procedures for minimizing risks and promoting benefits 23 Identifying and minimizing risks 23 Identifying and maximizing possible benefits 26 5. Procedures for responding to requests for help or assistance 28 Standard procedures 28 Background considerations 28 A specific recommendation: An experiment within the survey 32 6. - 
												
												Survey Experiments
IU Workshop in Methods – 2019 Survey Experiments Testing Causality in Diverse Samples Trenton D. Mize Department of Sociology & Advanced Methodologies (AMAP) Purdue University Survey Experiments Page 1 Survey Experiments Page 2 Contents INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................. 8 What is a survey experiment? .................................................................................................................................... 9 What is an experiment?.............................................................................................................................................. 10 Independent and dependent variables ................................................................................................................. 11 Experimental Conditions ............................................................................................................................................. 12 WHY CONDUCT A SURVEY EXPERIMENT? ........................................................................................................................... 13 Internal, external, and construct validity .......................................................................................................... - 
												
												Values for the Future : the Role of Ethics in European and Global Governance
#EthicsGroup_EU Values for the Future : The Role of Ethics in European and Global Governance European Group on Ethics in Science and New Technologies Research and Innovation European Group on Ethics in Science and New Technologies Values for the Future: The Role of Ethics in European and Global Governance European Commission Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Unit 03 Contact Jim DRATWA Email [email protected] [email protected] European Commission B-1049 Brussels Manuscript completed in May 2021. The European Commission is not liable for any consequence stemming from the reuse of this publication. The contents of this opinion are the sole responsibility of the European Group on Ethics in Science and New Technologies (EGE). The views expressed in this document reflect the collective view of the EGE and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. This is an EGE Statement, adopted by the members of the EGE: Emmanuel Agius, Anne Cambon-Thomsen, Ana Sofia Carvalho, Eugenijus Gefenas, Julian Kinderlerer, Andreas Kurtz, Herman Nys (Vice-Chair), Siobhán O’Sullivan (Vice-Chair), Laura Palazzani, Barbara Prainsack, Carlos Maria Romeo Casabona, Nils-Eric Sahlin, Jeroen van den Hoven, Christiane Woopen (Chair). Rapporteur: Jeroen van den Hoven. More information on the European Union is available on the internet (http://europa.eu). PDF ISBN 978-92-76-37870-9 doi:10.2777/595827 KI-08-21-136-EN-N Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021 © European Union, 2021 The reuse policy of European Commission documents is implemented based on Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. - 
												
												FUTURE of JUSTICE: STRENGTHENING the RULE of LAW Independence, Quality and Efficiency of National Justice Systems and the Importance of a Fair Trial
Finland's Presidency of the Council of the European Union EU 2019.FI Informal meeting of Justice and Home Affairs Ministers, 18-19 July 2019, Helsinki Working session I of Justice Ministers on 19 July 2019 FUTURE OF JUSTICE: STRENGTHENING THE RULE OF LAW Independence, quality and efficiency of national justice systems and the importance of a fair trial Protecting citizens and freedoms is the first priority of the new strategic Agenda for the Union 2019-2024, adopted by the June European Council. According to the Agenda, the EU will defend the fundamental rights and freedoms of its citizens, as recognised in the Treaties, and protect them against existing and emerging threats. Common values underpinning our democratic and societal models are the foundation of European freedom, security and prosperity. The rule of law, with its crucial role in all our democracies, is a key guarantor that these values are well protected; it must be fully respected by all Member States and the EU. A strong common value base makes it possible for the EU to reach its goals and ensure the rights of citizens and businesses. It is only by acting together and defending our common values that the EU can tackle the major challenges of our time while promoting the well-being and prosperity of its citizens. The rule of law is the core foundation of the European Union; it is one of the common values of the Union and as such is enshrined in the Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU). The EU Treaties require effective judicial protection as a concrete expression of the value of the rule of law (Article 19(1) TEU), as underlined by the Court of Justice of the European Union in its recent case-law. - 
												
												Rspg20-007 Final
EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR COMMUNICATIONS NETWORKS, CONTENT AND TECHNOLOGY Electronic Communications Networks and Services Radio Spectrum Policy Group RSPG Secretariat Brussels, 5 February 2020 RSPG20-007 FINAL RADIO SPECTRUM POLICY GROUP 23rd Progress Report of the RSPG Sub-Group on cross-border coordination RSPG Secretariat, Avenue de Beaulieu 33, B-1160, Bruxelles, office BU33 7/55 Telephone: direct line (+32-2)29.21.261, switchboard 299.11.11; Fax: (+32.2)296.83.95 E-mail: [email protected] Web-site: http://www.rspg-spectrum.eu Web-site CIRCABC : https://circabc.europa.eu/w/browse/f5b44016-a8c5-4ef6-a0bf-bc8d357debcb RSPG20-007 FINAL 23rd Progress Report of the RSPG Sub-Group on cross-border coordination The Sub-Group has held one meeting, 21st January in Roma, at the kind invitation of the Italian administration. The list of participants is attached in annex 1. The detailed report of the meeting is attached in annex 2. TV, T-DAB and FM interference around Italy For the details of the interference situation, please refer to the meeting report in annex 2: • For TV interference, there is no more interference to channels in operation in neighbouring countries except with Croatia where some interference remains on 5 channels. All these channels being used by local broadcasters, interference will cease when these Italian broadcaster will switch off, in accordance with the migration plan. • For TDAB interference, AGCOM is requested by law to develop a T-DAB plan fully in line with Italian international rights (GE-06 + coordination agreements). However, this can be done only after successful results of ongoing negotiations which aimed to optimize the GE-06 initial plan taking into account that planning was sometimes based on allotments and on DTV rather than DAB. - 
												
												The World Values Survey in the New Independent States C
THE WORLD’S LARGEST SOCIAL SCIENCE INFRASTRUCTURE AND ACADEMIC SURVEY RESEARCH PROGRAM: THE WORLD VALUES SURVEY IN THE NEW INDEPENDENT STATES C. Haerpfer1, K. Kizilova2* 1University of Vienna, Austria 2V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine The World Values Survey (WVS) is an international research program developed to assess the im- pact of values stability or change over time on the social, political and economic development of countries and societies. It started in 1981 by Ronald Inglehart and his team, since then has involved more than 100 world societies and turned into the largest non-commercial cross-national empirical time-series inves- tigation of human beliefs and values ever executed on a global scale. The article consists of a few sections differing by the focus. The authors begin with the description of survey methodology and organization management that both ensure cross-national and cross-regional comparative character of the study (the survey is implemented using the same questionnaire, a face-to-face mode of interviews, and the same sample type in every country). The next part of the article presents a short overview of the project history and comparative surveys’ time-series (so called “waves” — periods between two and four years long during which collection of data in several dozens of countries using one same questionnaire is taking place; such waves are conducted every five years). Here the authors describe every wave of the WVS mentioning coordination and management activities that were determined by the extension of the project thematically and geographically. After that the authors identify the key features of the WVS in the New Independent States and mention some of the results of the study conducted in NIS countries in 1990—2014, such as high level of uncertainty in the choice of ideological preferences; rapid growth of declared religiosity; ob- served gap between the declared values and actual facts of social life, etc. - 
												
												Exploratory Factor Analysis with the World Values Survey Diana Suhr, Ph.D
Exploratory Factor Analysis with the World Values Survey Diana Suhr, Ph.D. University of Northern Colorado Abstract Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) investigates the possible underlying factor structure (dimensions) of a set of interrelated variables without imposing a preconceived structure on the outcome (Child, 1990). The World Values Survey (WVS) measures changes in what people want out of life and what they believe. WVS helps a worldwide network of social scientists study changing values and their impact on social and political life. This presentation will explore dimensions of selected WVS items using exploratory factor analysis techniques with SAS® PROC FACTOR. EFA guidelines and SAS code will be illustrated as well as a discussion of results. Introduction Exploratory factor analysis investigates the possible underlying structure of a set of interrelated variables. This paper discusses goals, assumptions and limitations as well as factor extraction methods, criteria to determine factor structure, and SAS code. Examples of EFA are shown using data collected from the World Values Survey. The World Values Survey (WVS) has collected data from over 57 countries since 1990. Data has been collected every 5 years from 1990 to 2010 with each data collection known as a wave. Selected items from the 2005 wave will be examined to investigate the factor structure (dimensions) of values that could impact social and political life across countries. The factor structure will be determined for the total group of participants. Then comparisons of the factor structure will be made between gender and between age groups. Limitations Survey questions were changed from wave to wave. Therefore determining the factor structure for common questions across waves and comparisons between waves was not possible. - 
												
												The Evidence from World Values Survey Data
Munich Personal RePEc Archive The return of religious Antisemitism? The evidence from World Values Survey data Tausch, Arno Innsbruck University and Corvinus University 17 November 2018 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90093/ MPRA Paper No. 90093, posted 18 Nov 2018 03:28 UTC The return of religious Antisemitism? The evidence from World Values Survey data Arno Tausch Abstract 1) Background: This paper addresses the return of religious Antisemitism by a multivariate analysis of global opinion data from 28 countries. 2) Methods: For the lack of any available alternative we used the World Values Survey (WVS) Antisemitism study item: rejection of Jewish neighbors. It is closely correlated with the recent ADL-100 Index of Antisemitism for more than 100 countries. To test the combined effects of religion and background variables like gender, age, education, income and life satisfaction on Antisemitism, we applied the full range of multivariate analysis including promax factor analysis and multiple OLS regression. 3) Results: Although religion as such still seems to be connected with the phenomenon of Antisemitism, intervening variables such as restrictive attitudes on gender and the religion-state relationship play an important role. Western Evangelical and Oriental Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism are performing badly on this account, and there is also a clear global North-South divide for these phenomena. 4) Conclusions: Challenging patriarchic gender ideologies and fundamentalist conceptions of the relationship between religion and state, which are important drivers of Antisemitism, will be an important task in the future. Multiculturalism must be aware of prejudice, patriarchy and religious fundamentalism in the global South.