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Lily Charlott Birkholm Cand.ling.merc. - Europæiske studier og tysk 77 sider (113 sider inkl. litteraturliste og bilag) / 174.394 anslag Kandidatafhandling 20. august 2015 VIND I ØSTEUROPA En analyse af det rumænske vindenergimarked, og om det er gunstigt for Vestas at etablere en produktionsenhed i Rumænien Lily Charlott Birkholm Vejleder: Lars Abel Osteuropäischer Wind - eine Untersuchung der Expansionsmöglichkeiten für Vestas in Rumänien Rumänien ist eines der Länder der ehemaligen Sowjetunion, das große Anstrengungen unternommen hat, um das Erbe des Kommunismus zu überwinden. Obwohl die Aussicht auf eine EU-Mitgliedschaft zu Reformen anregte, wurde die Aufnahme durch eine träge und undurchsichtige Verwaltung, politische Unruhen und Korruption verzögert. Dies hat sogleich die Bedingungen für die Einwohner und privaten Unternehmen erschwert. Auch im Energie- und Umweltbereich ist Rumänien lange rückständig gewesen und hat deshalb große Probleme mit der Umweltverschmutzung, die hauptsächlich auf die jahrzehntelange Verwendung von Kohle zurückzuführen sind. Aus diesem Grund ist die Nachfrage nach Umwelttechnik in Rumänien in den letzen zehn Jahren gestiegen. Es gibt in Rumänien seit langem ein wachsendes Interesse an der Windindustrie, und dieses hat zu einem großen Windturbinenexport ins Land geführt. Der weltweit operierende dänische Hersteller von Windkraftanlagen, Vestas Wind Systems, hat dort Aufträge erhalten, und dieses sollte weiterverfolgt werden. Aber Vestas befindet sich im starken Wettbewerb mit anderen Produzenten von Windkraftanlagen, die alle möglichst einen Anteil an dem wachsenden Windenergiemarkt in Osteuropa bekommen wollen. Deshalb sollte man überlegen, ob es für Vestas sinnvoll wäre, die Turbinen direkt dort zu bauen, wo sie gebraucht werden, um dadurch einen Wettbewerbsvorteil zu bekommen. Dies führt zur Problemstellung der Masterarbeit: Welche Trends gibt es auf dem rumänischen Windenergiemarkt, und wäre es Erfolg versprechend für Vestas eine Produktion in Rumänien zu etablieren? Um diese Frage beantworten zu können, wurde eine PESTEL-Analyse vorgenommen, die die Faktorkonditionen und die sozialen Bedingungen in Rumänien untersucht hat, welche die Windindustrie im Land beeinträchtigen könnten. Die Studie ergab, dass Rumänien über optimale Windbedingungen für Windkraftanlagen verfügt, dass die Bevölkerung die technischen Befähigungen hat, und dass sich heute eine Mentalitätsänderung in Bezug auf die Politik und das generelle Umweltbewusstsein vollzieht. Darüber hinaus ist betont worden, dass die rumänische Verwaltung schwerfällig und undurchsichtig ist und dass die Straßen- und Energieinfrastruktur in einer sehr schlechten Verfassung ist. Schließlich ist aber auch betont worden, dass Verbesserungen in vielen Bereichen vorgenommen worden sind. Diese Verbesserungen führten zu einer besser geeigneten Unternehmenspolitik, unter 1 anderem durch die Einführung einer Strategie für Forschung und Innovation und für eine Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem privaten und dem öffentlichen Sektor; sie wird von dem EU TEN-T Programm gefördert, das ins das Straßennetz investieren soll. Es wird sowohl von der Energieunion als auch vom rumänischen Energieunternehmen, Transelectrica, wesentlich in das Energienetz investiert. Und in erster Linie; eine erhöhte Bekämpfung der Korruption. Darüber hinaus ist eine Konkurrenzanalyse und Bestimmung der Branchen- und Marktattraktivität anhand des Fünf-Kräfte-Modells von Michael E. Porter vorgenommen worden, um die Wettbewerbssituation in der Region identifizieren zu können. Hier wurde deutlich, dass Vestas sich in einer sehr wettbewerbsintensiven Branche befindet, sowohl im Hinblick auf die Konkurrenz anderer Windenergieanlagenhersteller (insbesondere aus Asien) als auch in Bezug auf die schwarze Energieindustrie. Ferner ist zu erwarten, dass das wachsende Interesse an Umwelt- und Klimafragen positive Auswirkungen auf die Verkaufsaktivitäten Vestas‘ in der gesamten Region haben wird, da die Nachfrage nach erneuerbaren Energien zwangsläufig steigen wird. Die Natura 2000-Regelung hat allerdings einen Bremseffekt auf die Investitionsbereitschaft der Energiekonzerne ausgeübt. Die größte Herausforderung der Energiekonzerne im Moment, ist jedoch die Politik der rumänischen Regierung, die Exmittierung der VE-Zertifikate zu reduzieren. Denn das hat zur Folge, dass es weniger profitabel wird, in erneuerbaren Energiequellen zu investieren, und dieses wird schließlich zu einem schlechteren Umsatz für Vestas führen. Die Schlussfolgerung der Masterarbeit ist, dass viele Faktorkonditionen im Augenblick nicht gut genug sind, um Vestas empfehlen zu können, eine Windturbinenfabrik in Rumänien zu gründen, dass aber die Pläne der rumänischen Regierung, Transelectrica und der EU für Verbesserungen der Rahmenbedingungen letztendlich das Projekt doch noch attraktiv machen könnten. Bevor ein solches Projekt eingeleitet wird, ist es jedoch von entscheidender Bedeutung, dass die Behörden in der Lage sind zu garantieren, dass die Pläne auch innerhalb eines festgelegten Zeitrahmens aktualisiert werden. Darüber hinaus ist es notwendig, die Pläne für die Vergabe von VE-Zertifikaten zu diskutieren. Man kann nur hoffen, dass dieses ganz von selbst geschieht, wenn die EU die Energie- und Klimaanforderungen verschärft. Zusätzlich, ist darauf hingewiesen worden, dass man untersuchen könnte, welche Möglichkeiten es für eine Forschungskooperation mit den rumänischen Institutionen gibt. Umschulung der Bergarbeiter, die Forschung in erneuerbaren Energien und offshore im Schwarzen Meer sind hier sehr zentrale Aspekte. 2 Indholdsfortegnelse 1 Indledning .......................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Problemformulering ........................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Motivation og hypotese ...................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Afgrænsning ....................................................................................................................................... 8 1.4 Teorier og modeller ............................................................................................................................ 9 1.5 Metode ............................................................................................................................................. 10 1.6 Specialets struktur ............................................................................................................................ 11 1.7 Empiri .............................................................................................................................................. 11 1.8 Kritik af teorier ................................................................................................................................. 13 1.9 Begrebsafklaring .............................................................................................................................. 13 2 Vestas – et overblik .......................................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Økonomiske udfordringer ................................................................................................................ 17 2.2 Energipolitik i EU ............................................................................................................................ 17 2.3 Konkurrence ..................................................................................................................................... 18 2.4 Mål og Strategi ................................................................................................................................. 19 2.5 Vestas i Østeuropa ........................................................................................................................... 19 2.6 Vestasadfærd .................................................................................................................................... 20 2.7 Vestas’ muligheder i Østeuropa ....................................................................................................... 21 3 PESTEL-analyse .............................................................................................................................. 22 3.1 Porters teori om statens rolle. ........................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Political Factors ................................................................................................................................ 23 3.2.1. Politik i Rumænien ........................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.2. Eliten - Fra nomenklatura til fåmandsvælde .................................................................................... 23 3.2.3. Anti-korruption i et højere gear........................................................................................................ 24 3.2.4. Klaus Iohannis.................................................................................................................................. 25 3.2.5. EU og Energiunionen ....................................................................................................................... 26 3.3 Economic Factors ............................................................................................................................
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