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Deliverable D1.2 Final Climate Scenarios Report Deliverable D1.2 Final climate scenarios report R. Monjo1, J. Pórtoles1, E. Gaitán1, D. Redolat1, C. Paradinas1, C. Prado1, L. Torres1, J. Ribalaygua1, B. Russo2, M. Velasco2 1Climate Research Foundation (FIC); 2AQUATEC 30 October 2017 RESCCUE - RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas - a multisectorial approach focusing on water Grant Agreement no.700174. DELIVERABLE NUMBER: D1.2 DELIVERABLE NAME: Final climate scenarios report WP: WP1 DELIVERY DUE DATE: 31/10/2017 ACTUAL DATE OF 31/10/2017 SUBMISSION: DISSEMINATION LEVEL: Public LEAD BENEFICIARY: FIC RESPONSIBLE Robert Monjo (FIC) SCIENTIST/ADMINISTRATOR: R. Monjo, J. Pórtoles, E. Gaitán, D. Redolat, C. Paradinas, C. CONTRIBUTOR(S): Prado, L. Torres, J. Ribalaygua, B. Russo, M. Velasco INTERNAL REVIEWER: Jaime Ribalaygua (FIC) EXTERNAL REVIEWER: Paul Fleming (Seattle Public Utilities) 2 Table of contents Tables Summary ....................................................................................................... 6 Figures Summary ...................................................................................................... 7 Report Summary .................................................................................................... 15 Abstract ........................................................................................................................ 15 Main results .................................................................................................................. 15 1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 17 1.1. Motivation and objectives ................................................................................. 17 1.1.1. Deliverable .......................................................................................................................... 17 1.1.2. Report objectives ................................................................................................................ 17 1.2. Structure of the report ....................................................................................... 18 1.3. Summary of the used data ................................................................................. 18 2. Methodology .................................................................................................. 22 2.1. General view ..................................................................................................... 22 2.2. Statistical downscaling methods ........................................................................ 24 2.2.1. Analogy-based approach .................................................................................................... 24 2.2.2. Parametric bias-correction ................................................................................................. 27 2.2.3. Decadal: dynamical output correction ............................................................................... 30 2.2.4. Decadal: teleconnection indices ......................................................................................... 33 2.2.5. Time-scaling simulation ...................................................................................................... 35 2.2.6. Derived variables ................................................................................................................ 36 2.3. Uncertainty analysis .......................................................................................... 37 2.3.1. Verification of the methodology ........................................................................................ 37 2.3.2. Validation for the CMIP5 models ........................................................................................ 37 2.3.3. Projection uncertainty ........................................................................................................ 38 3. Results of verification and validation ............................................................... 40 3.1. Verification of the downscaling methods ........................................................... 40 3.1.1. About this ........................................................................................................................... 40 3.1.2. Barcelona ............................................................................................................................ 40 3.1.2.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 40 3.1.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 44 3.1.2.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 46 3.1.3. Lisbon .................................................................................................................................. 53 3.1.3.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 53 3.1.3.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 55 3.1.3.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 57 3.1.4. Bristol .................................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.4.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.4.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 64 3.1.4.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 67 3.1.5. Summary of the downscaling verification .......................................................................... 74 3.2. Verification of the teleconnection-based method ............................................... 75 3 3.2.1. About this ........................................................................................................................... 75 3.2.2. Barcelona ............................................................................................................................ 75 3.2.2.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 75 3.2.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 76 3.2.3. Lisbon .................................................................................................................................. 77 3.2.3.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 77 3.2.3.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 77 3.2.4. Bristol .................................................................................................................................. 78 3.2.4.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 78 3.2.4.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 78 3.2.5. Summary of the teleconnection verification ...................................................................... 79 3.3. Validation of the application to the CMIP-5 Models ............................................ 80 3.3.1. About this ........................................................................................................................... 80 3.3.2. Barcelona ............................................................................................................................ 80 3.3.2.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 80 3.3.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 83 3.3.2.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 85 3.3.3. Lisbon .................................................................................................................................. 92 3.3.3.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 92 3.3.3.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 94 3.3.3.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 95 3.3.4. Bristol .................................................................................................................................. 99 3.3.4.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 99 3.3.4.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................
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