Deliverable D1.2 Final climate scenarios report R. Monjo1, J. Pórtoles1, E. Gaitán1, D. Redolat1, C. Paradinas1, C. Prado1, L. Torres1, J. Ribalaygua1, B. Russo2, M. Velasco2 1Climate Research Foundation (FIC); 2AQUATEC 30 October 2017 RESCCUE - RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas - a multisectorial approach focusing on water Grant Agreement no.700174. DELIVERABLE NUMBER: D1.2 DELIVERABLE NAME: Final climate scenarios report WP: WP1 DELIVERY DUE DATE: 31/10/2017 ACTUAL DATE OF 31/10/2017 SUBMISSION: DISSEMINATION LEVEL: Public LEAD BENEFICIARY: FIC RESPONSIBLE Robert Monjo (FIC) SCIENTIST/ADMINISTRATOR: R. Monjo, J. Pórtoles, E. Gaitán, D. Redolat, C. Paradinas, C. CONTRIBUTOR(S): Prado, L. Torres, J. Ribalaygua, B. Russo, M. Velasco INTERNAL REVIEWER: Jaime Ribalaygua (FIC) EXTERNAL REVIEWER: Paul Fleming (Seattle Public Utilities) 2 Table of contents Tables Summary ....................................................................................................... 6 Figures Summary ...................................................................................................... 7 Report Summary .................................................................................................... 15 Abstract ........................................................................................................................ 15 Main results .................................................................................................................. 15 1. Introduction .................................................................................................... 17 1.1. Motivation and objectives ................................................................................. 17 1.1.1. Deliverable .......................................................................................................................... 17 1.1.2. Report objectives ................................................................................................................ 17 1.2. Structure of the report ....................................................................................... 18 1.3. Summary of the used data ................................................................................. 18 2. Methodology .................................................................................................. 22 2.1. General view ..................................................................................................... 22 2.2. Statistical downscaling methods ........................................................................ 24 2.2.1. Analogy-based approach .................................................................................................... 24 2.2.2. Parametric bias-correction ................................................................................................. 27 2.2.3. Decadal: dynamical output correction ............................................................................... 30 2.2.4. Decadal: teleconnection indices ......................................................................................... 33 2.2.5. Time-scaling simulation ...................................................................................................... 35 2.2.6. Derived variables ................................................................................................................ 36 2.3. Uncertainty analysis .......................................................................................... 37 2.3.1. Verification of the methodology ........................................................................................ 37 2.3.2. Validation for the CMIP5 models ........................................................................................ 37 2.3.3. Projection uncertainty ........................................................................................................ 38 3. Results of verification and validation ............................................................... 40 3.1. Verification of the downscaling methods ........................................................... 40 3.1.1. About this ........................................................................................................................... 40 3.1.2. Barcelona ............................................................................................................................ 40 3.1.2.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 40 3.1.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 44 3.1.2.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 46 3.1.3. Lisbon .................................................................................................................................. 53 3.1.3.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 53 3.1.3.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 55 3.1.3.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 57 3.1.4. Bristol .................................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.4.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.4.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 64 3.1.4.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 67 3.1.5. Summary of the downscaling verification .......................................................................... 74 3.2. Verification of the teleconnection-based method ............................................... 75 3 3.2.1. About this ........................................................................................................................... 75 3.2.2. Barcelona ............................................................................................................................ 75 3.2.2.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 75 3.2.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 76 3.2.3. Lisbon .................................................................................................................................. 77 3.2.3.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 77 3.2.3.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 77 3.2.4. Bristol .................................................................................................................................. 78 3.2.4.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 78 3.2.4.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 78 3.2.5. Summary of the teleconnection verification ...................................................................... 79 3.3. Validation of the application to the CMIP-5 Models ............................................ 80 3.3.1. About this ........................................................................................................................... 80 3.3.2. Barcelona ............................................................................................................................ 80 3.3.2.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 80 3.3.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 83 3.3.2.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 85 3.3.3. Lisbon .................................................................................................................................. 92 3.3.3.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 92 3.3.3.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 94 3.3.3.3. Other variables ............................................................................................................... 95 3.3.4. Bristol .................................................................................................................................. 99 3.3.4.1. Temperature .................................................................................................................. 99 3.3.4.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................................