Who Will Fight the Next Wars?

Special report: Will 200th Issue the US recovery last? issue 200 | november 2012 november 200 | issue

www.prospect-magazine.co.uk november 2012 | £4.50 Survival of

survivalfittest the of the fittest Who will fight the next wars? Labour’s lost votes peter kellner John Major’s entertaining dad ken dodd What women don’t want jane shilling Hobsbawm and India ramachandra guha China: a one-car policy? megan shank

A$10.95 NZ$12.50 US$6.99 €6.90 Can$7.99

Our fund managers’ most useful tool No. 5: A visitor pass

Over the past year, we interviewed the management of hundreds of listed companies across the UK.

Murray Income Trust Stocks and Shares ISA and Share Plan

There’s nothing like being able to judge for yourself. The value of tax benefits depends on individual For us, we won’t add a company to our portfolios without circumstances and the favourable tax treatment first holding a personal interview with its management. for ISAs may not be maintained. Murray Income Trust PLC is a conventional investment If you have any doubts about the suitability of trust that aims to deliver steady income growth, and is any investment for your needs, please consult an available through our ISA or Share Plan. Established in independent financial adviser. 1923, the trust invests in UK companies quoted on the 0500 00 40 00 London Stock Exchange and aims to offer investors a Request a brochure: growing annual income. You can invest in this trust from www.invtrusts.co.uk £100 per month or £1,000 lump sum. We offer daily dealings for lump sum investments. Do remember that the value of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up. You may not get back the amount invested. No recommendation is made, positive or otherwise, regarding the ISA and Share Plan.

Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1YG, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Telephone calls may be recorded. Please quote MINC PM 07

1012_Prospect_MINC_PM_07.indd 1 08/10/2012 17:20 prospect november 2012 3 Foreword Our 200th issue 2 Bloomsbury Place, London wc1a 2qa Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 7255 1279 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospect-magazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and chief executive Bronwen Maddox Editor at large David Goodhart Deputy editor James Elwes This is the 200th issue of Prospect since it was born in Politics editor James Macintyre Books editor David Wolf October 1995. It’s nearly two years since I became editor, Creative director David Killen Production editor Jessica Abrahams taking over from David Goodhart, the magazine’s founder, Web editor Daniel Cohen Editorial assistants Thomas Leece, Rose now its editor at large. We’re read by more people than ever, McLaren, Annalies Winny growing fast across the English-speaking world, with many Publishing President & co-founder Derek Coombs digital readers and contributors, and a record number of Publisher David Hanger entries to our international think tank awards. Our strength Circulation marketing director Jamie Wren Digital marketing: Tim De La Salle remains the same: the exploration, at length, of the most Advertising sales director Iain Adams, tel: 020 7255 1934 important ideas and arguments shaping the future. Advertising sales manager Dan Jefferson, tel: 020 7255 1934 The themes have shifted, though; it’s been a long 17 years. Finance manager Pauline Joy Prospect was conceived in the spirit that brought Tony Blair to power—taking a Editorial advisory board David Cannadine, Clive Cowdery, AC fresh look at how to run a modern democracy, with the conviction that no single Grayling, Peter Hall, John Kay, Peter Kellner, political party had a monopoly of answers. It was a time when the “rich” world Nader Mousavizadeh, Toby Mundy, Robin Niblett, Jean Seaton felt rich. Since then, the US’s misjudged wars, the crash of 2008, and debts and Associate editors deficits, have rocked confidence in democracy and markets. Hephzibah Anderson, Tom Chatfield, James Crabtree, Andy Davis, Edward Docx, Our most influential articles this year have answered these questions— David Edmonds, Sam Knight, Ian Irvine, Sam Leith, Emran Mian, Elizabeth Pisani, although not by agreeing with each other. Rowan Williams, Archbishop of Wendell Steavenson, James Woodall Canterbury, attracted global attention with his criticism of markets in “Modern Contributing editors Philip Ball, Anthony Dworkin, Josef Joffe, Babylon,” as did our roundtable with Paul Krugman on the austerity debate. Anatole Kaletsky, Michael Lind, Joy Lo Dico, Erik Tarloff John Kay and Richard Lambert have stirred up argument on the crisis in Annual subscription rates capitalism, as have Bill Emmott and George Soros, and Dahlia Lithwick and UK £49; Student £27 Europe £55; Student £32.50 Diane Roberts on US gridlock, while Ruth Franklin and Adam Kirsch have Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 explored how America’s fiction reflects its new anxiety.E lizabeth Pisani on Prospect Subscriptions, 800 Guillat Avenue, Kent Science Park, Sittingbourne, me9 8gu Indonesia, the “make-believe nation,” and Ramachandra Guha’s account of Tel 0844 249 0486; 44(0)1795 414 957 Fax 01795 414 555 India’s crippled government pursued the same themes on a grand scale. Email [email protected] Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/subscribe In Britain, our report on the collapse in public support for welfare kicked off Cheques payable to Prospect Publishing a debate which changed all parties’ calculations. Our reports on Boris Johnson’s Ltd. Subscription refunds must be made in writing to Prospect within four weeks of a ambitions and UKIP’s inroads into the Tory vote were prescient. Recent months new order or renewal, and are subject to an administration charge of £15. No refunds are have seen some of our most widely read pieces: Mark Kitto’s account of leaving paid on quarterly subscriptions. China; the declaration by the former UK ambassador to Israel that “There may The views represented in this magazine are never be peace” in the Middle East, and Richard Dawkins on evolution. not necessarily those of Prospect Publishing Ltd. Best endeavours have been taken in all This month, our writers advise on how to oust Hugo Chávez, rewrite cases to represent faithfully the views of all contributors and interviewees. The publisher Germany’s constitution and judge whether the US recovery will continue. accepts no responsibility for errors, Robert Fry, recording the long romance with elite military forces, asks whether omissions or the consequences thereof. Newstrade distribution politicians are wrong about the wars of the future. Peter Kellner, in a significant Comag Specialist, Tavistock Road, new poll, argues that political allegiance is no longer based clearly on class. West Drayton, ub7 7qe, Tel: 01895 433716 Images This isn’t a picture of gloom; there are answers, if not easy ones. Our writers Cover image: MILpictures by Tom Weber show the capacity for change in the most difficult predicaments. AtE ric Cartoons by: KJ Lamb, AT, Feggo, Roger Latham, GJ, Aaron, Hunter, Nick. Hobsbawm’s funeral in London in October (see the tribute to the Marxist Additional design: Jennifer Owens historian, p22), his son said that his father (who died aged 95) had wanted to ISSN: 13595024 live even longer to “take in more of what was happening in the world, and to get more of what was in his mind out into the world.” That aim—of both observation and influence—is, not just for writers, an honourable principle by which to live. prospect November 2012 5 Contents November 2012

This month Features Life 6 If I ruled the world garrison keillor 74 Today’s specials 28 Survival of the fittest Unrecognisable restaurants. 8 Recommends Will special forces retain their role? william skidelsky 10 Letters robert fry

Opinions 14 Drugs nonsense peter lilley 15 John Major’s music hall dad ken dodd

76 Wine Hearty reds. barry smith 76 Digital life Meet the data hoarders. hephzibah anderson 78 Leith on life In defence of the smiley. 16 Merkel’s real opponent sam leith katinka barysch 18 South Africa’s breaking point justice malala Arts & books 20 Venezuela’s flawless failure 36 Labour’s lost votes 80 What women don’t want william j dobson One way to win them back. Tips for feminists. 20 US election: the board game peter kellner jane shilling teddy wayne 42 The curious case of the Sherlock 84 Beyond the page Holmes pilgrims The novel goes digital. Conan Doyle fans gather in the Alps. leo benedictus edward docx

Obituary 22 A British internationalist Remembering Eric Hobsbawm. ramachandra guha

85 Art of the here and now Special report: US economy Realism and the Reformation. 62 Staring at America’s cliff james woodall charles dumas 87 The month in books olivia laing 66 Gas: on the rise john dizard 68 Innovation is key Fiction roger kay 50 Car crazy Does China need a one-car policy? 88 Tamara’s baby 68 Treasuries: safety net megan shank ludmilla petrushevskaya nick carn 54 A cry for real help The NHS is failing suicidal patients. Endgames Science & technology anna blundy 93 The generalist didymus 70 The elusive number 113 56 Adventures on the edge of 93 Enigmas & puzzles ian stewart The creation of a new element may consciousness change chemistry. Oliver Sacks explores the outer reaches 94 The Prospect list philip ball of the human mind. 96 The way we were 72 The month ahead anjana ahuja adam kirsch 200th anniversaries. ian irvine © getty images had to be done. theelimination ofhip-hop music, butit in favour of plain ordinary extermination of a number of pesky little dialects lican T tray and called me “ stood at attention. A man in a tuxedoerected aroundbroughtmy house,guardhousewith a mearmedandmen breakfast on a wokeup early one morning and found spikeda fence had been hadn’tLos any,beenassuch there transportation where lic bicycles to the able, creating pub ing trucks to natural gas, distributingtionin the U railway tracks in andplacing them in public housing next to the ing the royal family from their various palaces been a source of great pleasure forappropriate.” me. me to follow my dream; she toldish andme deferential.to “be a wanted for myself. I am a midwesterner, that I know of.” said,“ Jesusmarriedwasheand fondnessfor the Jews. Iasked him if P He asked me not to be harsh withname basis.the “ anymore, that we should be pronouns on needn’t capitalise hisa first I me todo. calledGod and we talked. Hetold called and the two of us figured out what nery cleaning salmon. I gave the them up to Alaska to live in a dormitory and work in a can 6 M tounderwrite callingtaxis. gaveI hisvast fortune tostruggling orchestras he fit right in: suave, good-humoured, helpful with packages and were quail eggs—boiled, perfect, on toast points. It dawned on me slowly that I had become I’d send the royal family to Croydon and chat with God. But would power make me potent? Nope Garrison Keillor If I ruled the world list,whichwaslong, andthen promisedIandthink toabout wish his like that. down the internet on to opeand reminded meof his great hree aides and an equerry stood by the breakfast table. M itt E imdaey u ol consump oil cut immediately I Worlddomination nothingisever I S B innesota boy, brought up to be sheep lmore Leonard. I repaired the Arctic ice cap and shut o I tested my powers with a few little righteous deeds. I made rc cle ta mrig n w talked we and morning that called arack R T omney a doorman at a ea P arty congressmen into three buses and shipped S C S by almost half, switch B all me Fred,” he said. o ruling the world has not rahmsand C roydon was no fun, nor was the M S ahib.” S y mother never told aturdays and E M S nglish, nor was M travinsky.threwI the y wife curtsied and kissed my hand. anhattan apartment building and M N - ichelle obel N S ot - - undays. Little things E P - xtract rize for Literature R uler of the World. I - R epub T he eggs - -

gering—truckloads—people wanting favours. I can no longer go the open and 50 pounds of jellybeans fell out. cried out praise to Allah and pulledtricks. a veiledA stringwoman inchadora and ran inwith the backpacka backpackand fell Iranians and Hezbollah and Hamas and showed them the blood,same lice, hail, and pestilence. large arena and I showed them what I could do with locusts, frogs, Angeles, It’s been interesting, I’ll say that. M iddle out in public. If I have dinner with close personal friends, they keep sticking notes under my plate: “Get Larry into T make love the way we used to?” Harvard,” “Get Lyle out of prison,” “ exas, the spend time together, just the two of us? Why don’t we Andmy wife isafter me continually: “Why don’t we cancer. E gua? I made myself a fabulous villa there, swimming turnthe job over to someone else and move to Anti ast. Andwhat aboutretirement, wonder.I HowI do P S leasedo something.” It wears a person out. outh. I brought the world’s bankers into one Iwasn’t going to bring that up but there it is. performer in the sack. I take hot showers, ing the world to say. T Ilook at pictures of naked girls, I read he ruler of the world has become a non- hotnovels, takeI the little bluepill: pool, cabanas, guest house, orchard, Days” (Faber andFaber) longwhite sandy beach—when do I get to take life easy? I asked Fred T and he said: “I’ve been struggling ih ht o mlin o years. millions for that ofwith and authorof“Lake Wobegon nothing. World dominance does hen I brought in the Israelis and Welcome to the club.” E humorist, radio broadcaster humorist, radiobroadcaster Garrison Keillor isanAmerican rbe, o i Josef did soproblem, dlh ilr a te same the had Hitler Adolph self-confidence. to lead not lxne te ra, Julius Great, theAlexander asy for someone who isn’t rul C T happy. “Just relax,” she says. beunable to make a woman ship” and forbid P “relation word the banish an odd feeling—to be able to nate elimi and presentations aesar,thelist goes on. isIt he load of daily mail is stag prospect november 2012 november prospect P S I N o I’m hopeful about numbers and yetnumbersand O ur dog has liver ower S P talin, oint - - - - -

8 prospect november 2012 Prospect recommends Five things to do this month

the imperial atelier that produced Art these jewel-like images. The 18th and 19th centuries John Bellany: A Passion for Life have traditionally been seen as a Scottish National Gallery, 17th period of decline for the Mughal November to 27th January 2013 school. (VS Naipaul characterised He has made it then, after all. John painting during the Raj as “bazaar Bellany, the forceful Scottish figu- art.”) This exhibition should chal- rative painter, is 70 this year, and in lenge that consensus. Assembling his honour the Scottish National over 200 manuscripts, it is the first Gallery is mounting a full retro- to cover the whole of the Mughal spective. But while resilience is dynasty. woven into his work—those strong, The earlier works, meanwhile, scuffed colours, bold outlines and are busier and more brightly col- expressive faces—despair has often oured, commissioned by the liberal haunted him. Akbar the Great (1556—1605), who Born in Port Seton, to a long- famously welcomed a delegation of line of fishermen and ship-build- Portuguese Jesuits and ordered his ers, steeped in Calvinism and the craftsmen to copy their reliquaries. varying moods of the sea, Bella- Like his court, this collection is a ny’s early paintings are vivid depic- John Bellany, The Obsession, 1966 rich mix. tions of that bracing sea-faring Laura Marsh life. A mind-expanding stint at the rative is disconcerting, sometimes Concerto was made in 1966 for Royal College of Art in London shifting perspective with a char- Deutsche Oper Berlin where he was followed, however, in 1967 by acter’s subjectivity. It is executed spent four difficult but productive a harrowing visit to Bergen-Belsen with technical brilliance—from years as director of ballet. Set to Theatre concentration camp in Germany, the choice of the wide 65mm for- Shostakovich’s Piano Concerto No 2 Hero which ushered in a long period of mat, boldly appropriate to the epic it is a lively comment on Germany’s Royal Court, 23rd November to 22nd emotional turmoil, self-destruc- films of the period, to Jonny Green- earlier, darker years, with a large December tive drinking and ill-health. In his wood’s brooding, intimate score. corps de ballet marching mischie- Ten-year-old Mimi, dressed as John painting, dark confrontations with The Master is above all a portrait of vously in precision-tooled ranks Proctor from The Crucible, finds evil and trauma gave way increas- a mindset, of a generation’s yearn- separated by a graceful and inno- herself in the school toilets hav- ingly to wild expressions of pain. ing for inclusion, purpose, self- vative pas de deux. ing a surreal, uneasy conversation A liver transplant in 1988 saved improvement and forgiveness. Requiem is MacMillan’s trib- with a male school governor who him. Bellany’s richly coloured later Francine Stock ute to Cranko, who died in 1973 at treats her as an adult. The eerily work, with its symbolic resonances, the age of 45. It incorporates many well-judged disquiet of that scene, reflects amazement and delight at of his mentor’s highly individual- and the ache of those surrounding the unexpected bounty of this sec- Dance istic tropes as well as harnessing it in Kin, won EV Crowe a nomina- ond life. imagery from William Blake in the tion for the Evening Standard’s 2011 Emma Crichton-Miller Concerto/Las Hermanas/Requiem groups of mourners. More articu- Most Promising Playwright. Royal Ballet, 17th November to 5th late than any memorial service, it is Her follow up is Hero. The focus December moving beyond words. this time is on teachers and though Kenneth MacMillan is one of the Neil Norman Crowe isn’t the first to dramatise Film few choreographers who war- homophobia in schools, she’s char- The Master rant a triple bill devoted entirely acteristically breaking with tra- On release from 2nd November to their work. He was a pioneer dition. Her hero isn’t struggling Take no notice of the fevered spec- of psychological ballet, creating Exhibition along the well-trodden path to sex- ulation: Paul Thomas Ander- pieces that reflected his own com- Mughal India: Art, Culture and ual self-acceptance. He’s in the son’s sixth film is not a definitive plex and often anguished charac- Empire highly sensitive arena of a primary a ny account (or indictment) of the rise ter. The three works on display at British Library, 9th November to 2nd school but he’s cheerfully unclos-

B ell of Scientology. Sure, there are sim- the Royal Ballet reveal the extent of April 2013 eted. The problem rests with a ilarities—Philip Seymour Hoffman his creativity. They are also a trib- One of the highlights of the British bothered colleague. plays Lancaster Dodd, a charis- ute to his friend and mentor, John Library’s exhibition of illustrations This potentially incendiary matic polymath who soon after the Cranko, the Marlowe to MacMil- and manuscripts from the Mughal material is in the ideal hands of second world war founds a move- lan’s Shakespeare. empire shows Shah Jahan, who director Jeremy Herrin. He has a dinburgh © John © E dinburgh ment known as The Cause. But Las Hermanas is based on Lor- built the Taj Mahal, receiving his matchless reputation for steering the film is more than the story of a ca’s play The House of Bernarda Alba son, Prince Aurangzeb, at court. It new writers, including Polly Sten- cult—it is an evocation of a national and was the first work MacMillan is a telling scene: the background ham (That Face) and Anya Reiss mood, channelled through the vol- made for Stuttgart Ballet, where is flattened, the dozen men assem- (Spur of the Moment), to success. atile ex-navy officer (played by Cranko was artistic director. A bled are all drawn in profile, and Crowe’s instincts and Herrin’s sure Joaquin Phoenix) who falls into stunning work of narrative dance, no one’s eyes meet. The puritani- touch are a killer combination. Dodd’s band. it has a palpable atmosphere of cal prince would usurp his father Warning: the Theatre Upstairs only As with Anderson’s previous repressed sexuality that matches within a decade, in 1658, banning seats 80. Don’t dither.

Courtesy of the City Art Centre, Art City the of Courtesy film, There Will Be Blood, the nar- Lorca’s dark drama. music and wine, and disbanding David Benedict

10 prospect november 2012 Letters

The morals of money Scottish citizens. This is not Eng- Chinese,” September), I will never when a broader behavioural ap- land’s government out to get the be a foreigner. proach to consumer and investor Michael Sandel’s carefree assump- Scots—we vote for it, too. “Justabludger” attitudes needs to be investigated tion that economic books should Jennifer Morton Via the Prospect website for clues as to how sustained eco- be the preserve of the world’s rulers Aberdeen nomic recovery may be achieved. (“If I ruled the world,” October) Dignity in work Despite Gavyn Davies’s dismissal tells us much about the world we Ahead of a referendum on Scottish of the “confidence fairy” (“The might create if his ideas were em- independence, there surely must Frank Field argues the welfare unfortunate Mr Osborne”), unless braced. His insistence that trade in be a debate on Northern Ireland’s system disincentivises work (“Re- she can be successfully summoned a free market pollutes the product future status. With its history and building Beveridge,” October). I to our aid, we (and Obama) will traded is plain wrong. As moral be- location, it seems natural that “Ul- agree means testing devalues work remain in the doldrums. An earlier ings, we instinctively distinguish ster” should be incorporated into but, in my experience of being on generation of behavioural econo- between activities which involve an independent Scotland. It makes minimum wage, that wasn’t the mists, with an understanding of cash and those which do not. The no sense for it to be linked with a main thing that discouraged me real world economics, would have former do not contaminate the lat- potentially separate England and from working. well understood this. ter. Sandel wishes to ban the word Wales. On minimum wage, welfare is Michael Jefferson “incentivise”. It’s less clear where Hugh Gilfedder used to top up your earnings be- Professor of International he wants to ban the practice. But, Lincoln cause they are far too low to live on. Business and Sustainability, in essence, he toys with the idea of Employers who pay such low wages London Metropolitan University banning parents from providing Too late for Italy don’t place much value on their cash rewards for children reading staff so the relationship can be- Budget busting gas lest a social more develop by which The actions of Mario Monti and the come abusive. I found little dignity reading for free cannot be a joy. He EU (“Saving Italy,” October) will working on minimum wage as the Dieter Helm trots out tired argu- should be more trusting about in- only prolong the agony of the euro management structure seemed to ments for an old technology (“The dividuals’ abilities to make moral crisis for the people who matter: be based upon treating those at the great gas debate,” October). Gas is and practical judgements in a free the citizens; the tax payers whose bottom as little more than slaves. I an expensive, polluting import that society. Those who value such a money is being thrown away on a would like to see the welfare system will make the UK likely to bust its society should hope his position as scheme most A-Level economics stopped from subsidising employ- carbon budgets and thousands of our ruler remains an idle fantasy students could pick huge, gaping ers who do not create long term families to bust their household played out in the pages of Prospect. holes in. value and the money diverted into budgets. Recent price rises have Mark Littlewood Monti is an unelected stooge of something more worthwhile. hit hard. Shale gas will be no solu- Director, Institute of Economic the European Commission; a man Jonathan Reeve tion, as supplies are neither cheap Affairs they could trust to keep the project Via the Prospect website nor sufficient inE urope. Deutsche “on track” and whose very position Bank and others suggest that ex- Michael Sandel’s piece was good in Italy is an insult to democracy. The enemy of enterprise? tracting gas in Europe will be more but failed to address the needs of His proposed summit against “pop- costly than in the US and the Inter- the less well-off. Until they have ulism” (that’s “democracy” to you Gavyn Davies states, “the Liberal national Energy Agency predicts the same choices as the better off, and me) is a clear example of why Democrats would have to accept that prices will rise. Sandel’s distinctions made between the euro project will eventually fail: that their general approach to tax- Helm’s claim that US emissions moral value and money’s worth will because it is a political project with- ation is the enemy of enterprise” have fallen is correct. But data seem academic. out legitimacy and the markets and (“The unfortunate Mr Osborne,” shows that between 2008 and 2011 D Dubowski the people will eventually reject it October). That, surely, is an opin- a larger cause of falling emissions Via the Prospect website for good. ion and not fact. The average was renewables, not gas. Nigel Farage MEP, leader of the FTSE 100 director earns over £2m. Doug Parr Distant democracy UK Independence Party Is it unreasonable to expect those Policy director, Greenpeace UK people to be taxed at a higher rate? Why has it become customary to Being Chinese Would that really discourage en- Shot in the foot portray Scotland as led by a seem- terprise? And what about evasion ingly detached “colonial power As a Chinese person living over- of corporation tax? I was surprised to see in the Oc- down south” (“Tartan timidity,” seas on a long term basis, I agree Ian K Watson tober “Letters” the wrongful use October)? The UK government is with most of what Mark Kitto said Carlisle of the phrase, “shot in the foot.” elected by Britain as a whole, with (“Criticising China,” October). This dates from the first world war each citizen of England, Scotland The education we received gives The confidence fairy when suffering soldiers deliber- and the rest of the UK having an us cold feet when given a chance ately shot themselves in the foot. equal vote, and thus equal repre- to criticise our faceless leader. Per- The October issue’s Diary consid- Unable to get their boots on, they sentation. In an independent Scot- sonally, I still try to avoid political ered Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, were shipped back to England. My land, Scots would have the same confrontations, even after watching Fast and Slow a “surprise bestsell- mother was a volunteer, nursing representation, but those elected other countries’ elections, protests er.” The book’s status as one of this many of them in military hospitals. would make decisions closer to and face-to-face debates with their year’s most influential reads is wor- Elizabeth Bowtell home. I fail to see how this is any leaders. I love watching, but still rying. Kahneman is a psychologist, Via email more democratic. Supporters of an am nowhere close to participating. not an economist—despite being a independent Scotland must stop I hope this will change in the near Nobel laureate in economics. His Have your say Email letters@ blaming Westminster for making future, but like the title of your book shows that only too clearly. prospect-magazine.co.uk. More at: poor decisions on issues that affect earlier article (“You will never be There has rarely been a time www.prospect-magazine.co.uk SUPPORT SARAH FOR A FRESH START

AS SHE TAKES A NEW DIRECTION INTO BUSINESS Sarah McLellan was living in Sanctuary Housing accommodation. She’s now determined to go to university and study business. Through her key-worker, she accepted an offer of Microsoft With the support of Microsoft’s Britain Works programme, work experience. Sarah spent a week learning about the real Sarah is just one of the 470,000 people we’ve helped onto world of business, which completely changed her perception of the work ladder and into a new career. what she could achieve and the opportunities available. microsoft.com/uk/citizenship (+=,9;0:05.-,(;<9,

-S`KPYLJ[[V[OL[PTLSLZZJOHYTVM=PL[UHT

UJYLKPISLSHUKZJHWLHUKL_X\PZP[LJ\PZPUL\UPX\L OPZ[VYPJJHWP[HS/HUVPPU[OLUVY[OPZHULMMLY]LZJLU[ISLUK HYJOP[LJ[\YLHUKZ[\UUPUNILHJOLZ¶UV[[VTLU[PVU[OL VM[YHKP[PVUHSHUKJVU[LTWVYHY`=PL[UHT@V\JV\SKZVVU 0KPZ[PUJ[J\S[\YLMYPLUKS`WLVWSLHUK]HS\LMVYTVUL`!P[»ZUV ILL_WSVYPUN[OLJP[`»Z6SK8\HY[LYVY]PZP[PUNH^H[LYW\WWL[ Z\YWYPZL=PL[UHTPZILJVTPUNVULVM(ZPH»Z[VWWSHJLZ[V]PZP[ [OLH[YLZOVÎLMVYL[YH]LSSPUN[V[OLKYHTH[PJYVJRMVYTH[PVUZ 3HZ[`LHY=PL[UHT(PYSPULZSH\UJOLK[OLÄYZ[L]LYUVU ÔPJOYPZLV\[VM/HSVUN)H`VY[YLRRPUNMYVT[OLVSKJVSVUPHS Z[VWÅPNO[Z[V=PL[UHTMYVT[OL<2]HZ[S`YLK\JPUNQV\YUL` OPSSZ[H[PVUVM:HWH [PTLZHUKNP]PUN)YP[PZO[YH]LSSLYZ[OLJOHUJL[V]PZP[VULVM (ZPH»ZTVZ[L_JP[PUNKLZ[PUH[PVUZ^P[OV\[[OLOHZZSL)VVR V*OP4PUO*P[`PU[OLZV\[OPZVULVM(ZPH»Z UV^^P[O=PL[UHT(PYSPULZHUK`V\^PSSILHISL[VÅ`KPYLJ[ TVZ[PUZWPYPUNJP[PLZ9LUVÛLKMVYP[Z[YLLSPULK MYVT.H[^PJR(PYWVY[»Z5VY[O;LYTPUHS[VLP[OLYVM=PL[UHT»Z /IV\SL]HYKZJVSVUPHSHYJOP[LJ[\YLHUKTHZZLZVM [^VTHQVYJP[PLZ/HUVPHUK/VP*OP4PUO*P[`;OLYLHYL[^V TVWLKZ[OLJP[`MVYTLYS`RUVÛHZ:HPNVUYLÅLJ[ZHKP]LYZL ÅPNO[Z[VLHJOJP[`L]LY`^LLR TP_VM=PL[UHTLZL*OPULZLHUK-YLUJOJ\S[\YHSPUÅ\LUJLZ ;OLYV\[LZHYLZLY]LKI`[OL]LY`SH[LZ[)VLPUNQL[Z >OH[»ZTVYL[OLYL»ZUVULLK[VOH]L[VJOVVZLIL[^LLU HUK[OLYLHYLVW[PVUZ[VÅ`PU,JVUVT`,JVUVT`+LS\_LVY [OL[^VYLNPVUZ=PL[UHTPZHSVUNZSLUKLYJV\U[Y`HUK^P[O )\ZPULZZ*SHZZ^P[OZLH[IHJRLU[LY[HPUTLU[Z`Z[LTZPULHJO =PL[UHT(PYSPULZ`V\JHUZ[HY[`V\Y=PL[UHTHK]LU[\YLH[ JHIPU LP[OLY/V*OP4PUO*P[`VY/HUVPHUKKLWHY[MYVT[OLV[OLY =PL[UHTPZHSHUKVMZ[\UUPUNILH\[`HUKHUJPLU[J\S[\YL 0UIL[^LLUH^HP[ZWLJ[HJ\SHYZPNO[ZHZ[OL4¾:V»U]HSSL`PU [OH[PZVWLUPUN\W[VV]LYZLHZ[V\YPZTÔPSLTHPU[HPUPUNP[Z JLU[YHS=PL[UHTZP[LVM[LTWSLZI\PS[I`[OLHUJPLU[RPUNKVT [YHKP[PVUHSJOHYT,Z[HISPZOLKV]LY`LHYZHNV=PL[UHT»Z VM*OHTWHÔPJOY\SLKOLYLHTPSSLUUP\THNV"HUK[OLNH[LZ

9LHWQDPVSUHDGLQGG VM[OLPTWLYPHSJP[HKLSH[/\v^OLYL[OL5N\`LU+`UHZ[` (Z¶LZ[HISPZOPUN=PL[UHT(PYSPULZHZ[OLYLNPVUHSJHYYPLY Y\SLK\U[PSHZYLJLU[S`HZ VMJOVPJLMVY0UKVJOPUH

OLUL^ÅPNO[ZHSZVVMMLYJVU]LUPLU[VU^HYKJVUULJ[PVUZ ;VIVVRHKPYLJ[ÅPNO[[V=PL[UHT[OH[»ZTVYLJVU]LUPLU[[OHU ]PH=PL[UHT(PYSPULZ»JVTWYLOLUZP]LYLNPVUHSUL[^VYR L]LY]PZP[^^^]PL[UHTHPYSPULZJVTVYJHSS ;PUJS\KPUNL_JP[PUNKLZ[PUH[PVUZ[OYV\NOV\[=PL[UHTHUK IL`VUKZV=PL[UHTULLKUV[IL`V\YVUS`KLZ[PUH[PVU¶P[JHU ,_WLYPLUJL[OL=PL[UHT*SHZZPJMYVT WW^P[O IL`V\YUL^NH[L^H`[V0UKVJOPUH,_WLYPLUJL[OLJVU[YHZ[ WLVWSLZ[YH]LS[OLL_WLY[ZPU[YH]LS[V(ZPHHUKIL`VUK VM*HTIVKPH»ZJOHV[PJJOHYPZTH[PJJHWP[HS7OUVT7LUOHUK KH`Z UPNO[ZIHZLKVUZOHYPUNZ[H`PUNUPNO[ZPU [OLZLYLULZWPYP[\HSP[`VM(UNRVY>H["LUQV`[OLYVTHUJLHUK /HUVPUPNO[PU/\v"UPNO[ZPU/VP(UHUKUPNO[ZPU JOPSSLKV\[WHJLVM\UZWVPS[3HVZ"VY]LU[\YLPU[V4`HUTHY /V*OP4PUO*P[`0UJS\KLZ=PL[UHT(PYSPULZÅPNO[ZMYVT ¶KLZJYPILKI`2PWSPUNHZ¸X\P[L\USPRLHU`WSHJL`V\RUV^ .H[^PJR[YHUZMLYZOV[LSHJJVTTVKH[PVUHUKKHPS` HIV\[¹¶MVYHU\UMVYNL[[HIS`H\[OLU[PJ(ZPHUL_WLYPLUJL IYLHRMHZ[WS\ZHOHSMKH`JP[`[V\YPULHJOJP[`HUKM\SSKH` =PL[UHT(PYSPULZPZHTLTILYVM[OL:R`;LHTHSSPHUJL /HSVUN)H`[YPWPUJS\KPUNS\UJOHUKHOHSMKH`7LYM\TL HUKVWLYH[LZ YV\[LZ[VKVTLZ[PJHUKPU[LYUH[PVUHS 9P]LY[V\YPU/\v=HSPKMVY[YH]LS1HU\HY`[V1\UL KLZ[PUH[PVUZ^P[OTVYL[OHUKHPS`ÅPNO[Z-\Y[OLYUL^ IVVRLKI`5V]LTILY*HSS VY YV\[LZHYLWSHUULKMVY^P[O0UKPHHUK[OL<:>LZ[*VHZ[ ]PZP[^^^WLVWSLZ[YH]LS]PL[UHTOVSPKH`Z WV[LU[PHSHKKP[PVUZ[V[OLL_WHUKPUNUL[^VYR >P[OHUH]LYHNLHNLVMQ\Z[`LHYZ=PL[UHT(PYSPULZ»ÅLL[ VMHPYJYHM[PZVULVM[OL^VYSK»ZTVZ[TVKLYU7SHUZHYLPU WSHJL[VL_WHUK[OLÅLL[[VHPYJYHM[I`HUK[V I`¶PUJS\KPUN)VLPUN) +YLHTSPULYZHUK(PYI\Z

9LHWQDPVSUHDGLQGG © redorbital/demotix Hitchensdisplays hisin embarrassing bias in my almostfavour. with me quizzedprohibition, and reactionarya arguefornutteruplinedto would like, confided had they that Itions lishment. Interviewers asked me what ques I felt the warm embrace of the liberal theestabcontrary, for the first time in my career “courage.” con my was for alike foe and friendgratulated by I 2001, in cannabis of isation When I wrote a pamphlet advocating legal but he is far more thoughtful than his liberal opponents Peter Hitchens is wrong to argue for banning cannabis, Drugs haze Peter Lilley 14 What requires real courage—which B ut it requiredcourage.itno ut P eter O n - - - - approachthanforthattheliberal of allies sympathy his more with for leaves me legalisation.he on view my change to extent our press. broadcastingour lesser networks a to and neglecttheby this argument guarantees ridicule, at worst,taking, andcannabis particular.in Atbest, isto argue for seriousa effort to deter drug British Establishment’s Surrender Drugs to booknew icess ok a nt persuadedHitchens’s me not has book Will Germany’s kill court the euro? B US election: the board game John reaking point in South Opinions How to fight Chávez h Wr e ee Fought: The Never We War The M D ajor’s music hallajor’s dad rugs nonsense bien pensantsbien

who dominatewho 14 A 20 frica 15 20 18 16 B ut — rendering him a danger to society, then it is bly addictive, enslaving the hapless thenuser itsand use must be evil. If a drugHitchens argues,is salecannabisifofinexora evil,is adr n h “vl rg dealers.” drug “evil the on harder down crack to promisesaccompanied by cannabishave users always onalties been all but decriminalise cannabis use. true reasons for concern about drugs. alternatives theto acknowledging and the all, Hitchens is far more honest in facing upwhose company, on this issue, I keep. Above decades. thiscountry movedhas towards forseveral thoughtheisitdestination which policy in optionof the intelligentsia, makes no sense, isation. Decriminalisation, fashionable the cally coherent policies: prohibition and legal manoeuvring, from Hitchens’s is aspects revelation theing of M First,herealises there areonly two logi as importantdeterasbuyerthetheto as ovesstopenforcingreducetoor pen seller. a harmless lifestyle choice, its provi sion can scarcely be evil. O models: prohibitionandthe eaiain f anbs sale. cannabis of legalisation Hitchens argues for the former. I e f h bo’ ms interest book’s most the of ne advocate the latter. Decriminali International Cannabis Day a protest in Hyde Park on A legalisation campaigner joins S w cn p fr n o two of one for opt can we o C onversely, if cannabis use is prospect november 2012 november prospect S weden’s toughly enforced R oy Jenkins onwards, to N etherlands’ B ut, ------prospect november 2012 opinions 15 sation is the worst of both worlds. It means Most liberals oppose drug laws because Major has produced a wonderful show that cannabis users can obtain their supplies they passionately reject the entire notion of for us; a detailed history of the bawdy, boozy only from illegal gangs, who profiteer and try personal morality in the sense of restraint singalong halls of the good old days; show to persuade them to move on to more lucra- or commitment in one’s personal life. For business, the Victorian way. He presents a tive hard drugs. We drive soft drug users into them morality is simply adherence to a set cavalcade of colourful and eccentric char- the arms of hard drug pushers—Hitchens’s of correct beliefs about the ordering of soci- acters from both sides of the footlights: riposte that there is no distinction between ety; beliefs which involve few inconvenient the artistes, the managements and, most hard and soft drugs is not convincing. restraints on personal behaviour. importantly, the audience. But the most refreshing aspect of this Hitchens and I differ on where and when I think slaving over a hot audience is a book is its recognition that drug taking is the law should uphold ethics. But, the less wonderful way of earning a crust. For thou- fundamentally a moral issue. Most people, we rely on law the more we depend on per- sands of years people have been fascinated on both sides of the argument, pretend it is sonal morality. So, however unfashionable, by watching other people perform—danc- purely about health risks to users, in addi- I am on Hitchens’s side in reaffirming this ing, speaking, acting. The Greeks, the Eliza- tion to the crime that some addicts commit point—both on drug abuse and more widely. bethans, Shakespeare’s theatre. People have to finance their habit.P roponents of tougher Society cannot be built on a moral vacuum. always loved to dress up and down, to sing, drug laws seize on any evidence, however ten- Peter Lilley, former social security secretary, is to speak their lines and tell their jokes. Sing- uous, that drugs damage the user’s health. Conservative MP for Hitchin and Harpenden ing is best enjoyed with other people. Telling Hitchens does this too but, more impor- jokes to yourself is very unsatisfactory. Ah! tantly, he also acknowledges that he believes Where would we be without them, the cus- drug taking is morally wrong. tomers? Probably locked away in a secure As it so happens, I am one of the few peo- place—or back in the House of Commons ple who agrees with him that drug abuse— debating town and country planning, the getting stoned on drugs or alcohol—is third runway, et cetera. morally reprehensible. I am not sure that The music hall chairman, Sir John, for Hitchens’s explication of their evil—that the purpose of his book, has produced for they lead to an ecstasy which has not been your delight and at ENORMOUS expense merited by effort or virtue—is adequate. a cornucopia of star names, biographies Surely the classical Christian case against Ken Dodd and anecdotes of these fabulous eccentrics. drunkenness applies to stupefaction by any Marie Lloyd, née Matilda Wood, queen of drug: namely that, as well as being degrad- Music hall dad the music halls. Her world-renowned suc- ing, it undermines the conscience and may John Major’s memoir of his cess in variety and the variety of her love engender more serious sins? Morally there life entertained everybody. Dan Leno, a lit- is also a difference, which Hitchens fails to father gives us a front row seat tle man with a giant talent. His bill matter address, between drug use and abuse—a proclaimed him as “the funniest man in the relaxing glass of wine and getting stoned. This gent phoned me the other day. “Lis- world.” George Robey, the prime minister An activity may be immoral with- ten!” he ses, “D’you fancy doing a write-up of mirth. Gertie Gitana and Nellie Wallace out automatically being illegal. Adultery for us? A review?” and many others. is socially harmful but not a crime. How- “How d’you mean?” I ses. All these entertainers were like little one- ever, for an activity to be criminalised there “John Major has written a book about man businesses: very independent, trying to needs to be broad agreement that it is mor- his dad and the old music hall. Now you make a living with their act, anxiously look- ally wrong. So long as the case against drug know a bit about this! So how about it? We’ll ing for their next engagements—fiercely taking is argued purely in terms of its health give you a few bob,” he ses. proud and protective of their position. And consequences, that condition will not be “Right,” I ses. “I’ll get up and get a few of them did make it and became the met. Indeed, if a drug is found that has no dressed. When do I start?” “lions” of the music hall, and the girls too. adverse health effects, those who, for tactical The words “music hall” bring to mind Some indeed married into the aristocracy reasons, rely on the health argument would the picture of a raucous mob, howling and and became titled ladies, even duchesses. be bereft of reasons to denounce its use. bellowing their old familiar phrases, the So what makes a star? Nobody really Hitchens and I agree that drug abuse is same heckling lines you hear at prime min- knows. I’ve heard hard-hearted agents— morally deplorable but disagree on whether ister’s question time: “Rubbish! Codswal- gilded impresarios, bossy managers—all that means cannabis should be banned. He lop! Resign!” Back when he was in office, try to explain why this woman or that man favours tough laws against it. I believe this facing the hecklers at PMQs, John Major is a Star—a Top of the Bill, a Draw. All drug—which is rarely addictive or lethal— would endeavour to bring order, to calm these pundits end up with the same word: should be legalised and left to individual things down with his patient and reasona- “Magic!” Most entertainers have skill, tal- conscience. He takes me to task for say- ble manner. He brings the same diligence ent, polish, but the greats, the stars, have ing that “the freer people are to exercise and clear thinking to My Old Man: A Per- magic. Charisma, magnetism, call it what responsibility… the more responsibly they sonal History of Music Hall, an account of one you will—it’s still magic. are likely to behave.” of our much-loved institutions told through The early music halls were very like the But I still find him more congenial intel- the story of his father, Tom Major-Ball, who social clubs where I first served my appren- lectual company than the liberal establish- began his music hall career aged 17, when ticeship. These were great places to learn, ment who welcomed me to their bosom. I Queen Victoria was still on the throne. with eye-to-eye contact, how to love and support legalisation of cannabis despite This is a whimsical tome—an incongru- respect your audience. You try to charm believing that drug abuse is morally wrong. ity surely? A treatise penned by a politi- them. They’re like a big, warm, shaggy dog. Liberals, I discovered, want penalties lifted cian about his father’s profession. How and If they like you they’ll be friendly, encourag- because they believe it is not ethically rep- where it all started. In the pleasure gardens ing, asking for their favourite joke. “Give us rehensible at all. Indeed, my publisher and pubs, saloons and penny gaffs of the the three-legged chicken Doddy!” They’ll be resisted including even a brief explana- 19th century. Men and women joyfully rais- with you, even shouting the punchline of the tion of the moral case against drug abuse. ing their alcohol-fuelled voices in song. gag before you can get to it. 16 opinions prospect november 2012

the eurozone’s permanent bailout fund, and the discipline-imposing fiscal compact are not prima facie incompatible with the Ger- man constitution. Those asking for a tem- porary injunction against the ratification of these central planks of the euro rescue effort have lost their case. Europe breathes a sigh of relief. Bond yields fall. The judges retire to work out the next convoluted verdict. Germans are now beginning to ask whether this revered court is an obstacle to the efforts led by chancellor Angela Mer- kel to mount the rescue of the euro. But challenging the role of the court would go against deeply held principles, too. Britons, who are used to prime min- isters taking snap decisions and parliament defending its primacy, wonder why a bunch of unaccountable judges holds such power. Germans, however, see their constitutional court as more of a political body than a legal one. It is one of the five pillars

re library pi c t u re s evan mary © on which the post-war constitution rests, An 1893 programme for a music hall bill that included the stars Marie Lloyd and Dan Leno alongside the two chambers of parliament, the government and the (rather tooth- But if you don’t give them what they Sir John has booked front seats for us less) federal president. Germans say they want—if your jokes aren’t funny and you at the best live show in town. The nostal- respect the court more than just about any don’t sing their favourite song—you’ll “get gic world of tinsel and tights, red noses and other political body and they make good the bird.” At Glasgow Empire—the “house funny men, all gigs and gags. Now the stars use of it. They regularly ask Karlsruhe to of terror”—they would shout, “Away hame come out for us. “Overture and beginners rule on highly sensitive issues, ranging and bile yer heed!” please!” “Curtain up—on with the show!” from social benefit levels to whether Ger- Variety acts in the past and now share “Don’t dilly dally!” Read it and enjoy the man soldiers can be sent into warzones. a lot. Each one of the performers Major acts. Variety IS the spice of life! The constitutional court has been asked describes worked assiduously, polishing, Ken Dodd is a comedian to pass judgement on each EU treaty since burnishing their act until it shone. So in a the 1970s, as well as various laws and direc- variety show you got gold, the result of so tives. Virtually every step in the euro res- much hard work, diligence and wishing for cue efforts since 2010 has ended up in their big break. We’re all dreamers, opti- Karlsruhe: mists—we know that one day we’ll make it 7th September 2011: The court waves to the big time! The wheel of fortune spins through the first Greek bailout and the around and nowadays the intrepid “turns” European Financial Stability Facility find work in all sorts of venues. An amazing (EFSF, the ESM’s predecessor). But it number of entertainers now work on cruise warns that no German government or par- ships, the maritime music halls! liament can create open-ended liabilities, The old music halls may have crumbled Katinka Barysch which may include eurobonds (debt issued away but they left us a priceless legacy: the jointly by the governments of the euro- songs. They are our heritage and we still Power struggle zone) or a fiscal union (some shared tax sing them today at family parties round the Is Germany’s constitution the and spending powers across the currency piano, round the campfire, in pubs and clubs, bloc). This would undermine the country’s even in civic leisure centres. Great tunes, real bar to the euro rescue? fiscal sovereignty and democracy. lovely lyrics. “If You Were the Only Girl in 28th February 2012: The court declares the World,” “You Made Me Love You,” “I’m 12th September 2012, 10am in Germany. unconstitutional a new body of nine MPs Shy Mary Ellen, I’m Shy.” They weren’t all Bond traders in London and Frankfurt are intended to speed up the use of the EFSF. love songs though. Some had intellectual staring at their screens. Once again, the 19th June 2012: The court slaps down titles like, “When It’s Night Time in Italy It’s fate of the eurozone seems to be hanging in the government for not informing MPs Wednesday Over Here,” “Yes We Have No the balance. about its negotiations on the ESM. Par- Bananas” and “How Does a Hen Know the In the sleepy west German town of Karls- liament must be given the opportunity to Size of an Eggcup When it Lays an Egg?” ruhe, eight red-robed judges take a seat in influence talks. Given some MPs’ incli- Throughout this book, John Major front of pale wood panelling. One of them nation to play politics with the crisis, this reveals his love and respect for his father, studiously reads from a prepared sheet: “In could complicate efforts to save the euro. and his mother Gwen, herself an accom- the name of the people...” he begins, before 12th September 2012: The court says plished artiste and dancer. He tells us of his explaining something about article eight, the ESM and the fiscal compact can go dad’s amazing rollercoaster career, recounts paragraph five, clause one. German newspa- ahead provided Germany gets legally lots of show business gossip and gives us pers and broadcasters stand ready to trans- watertight reassurances that its ESM lia- plenty of peeps behind the scenes; recalling late the meaning of the latest verdict. The bilities will not exceed €190 billion without the good times and the sad times, the laugh- federal constitutional court has ruled that prior consent and that ESM executives ter and the tears. the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), cannot hide information. The liability

18 opinions prospect november 2012

cap should not be a problem as long as the and to implement effective strategies that European Central Bank can step in along- could place the economy on a path to faster side the ESM to rescue huge debtors, such and more inclusive growth,” the agency said. as Italy and Spain. But the court has It has been an annus horribilis for Zuma already indicated it may question whether and the ANC, the party he inherited from the ECB is allowed to buy the bonds of Nelson Mandela. In August the police killed struggling euro members. 34 striking workers at a Lonmin mine in Some Germans—rightly, I think—are Justice Malala Marikana in the worst incident of police vio- becoming fed up with the constraints that lence here since democracy dawned 18 years the court keeps imposing on Angela Mer- ago. A wave of violent strikes has spread kel’s policies. They accuse the judges of Breaking point across the mining sector, threatening half a usurping the authority of democratically Inequality is sending South Africa million jobs and an industry that contributes elected leaders while sticking to old-fash- towards a political crisis six per cent to GDP. Workers in other sec- ioned, statist and eurosceptic principles. tors are following suit, demanding massive Politicians from across the spectrum have increases. Striking workers have attacked been calling for a new pro-EU constitution Here in South Africa they are making jokes union leaders physically for “selling out”— to be adopted by a referendum. about the late Zairean kleptocrat Mobutu one was killed recently near the Lonmin However, this would not be a quick path Sese Seko. At the height of his excess, mine—due to anger that such leaders can towards eurobonds or a fiscal union. Work- Mobutu built an airport in his rural home- earn salaries similar to company CEOs while ing out a new constitution would take at town so that, the story goes, he could hop to workers draw a pittance. least a year. The ensuing referendum might Paris for a quick shop. In the first seven months of 2012, the not yield the desired result. Even if a new The jokes are not coming from “racist” country recorded more violent protests over constitution did allow for eurobonds, most whites afraid of the dawn of democracy, as lack of services than in any other year since Germans and their leaders would still look happened in the 1990s. They are coming such protests started in 2004. The govern- at them sceptically. And even if Germany instead from young black people who believe ment had failed to deliver textbooks in the decided that eurobonds were a good idea, the the dream of a stable, prosperous and dem- populous Limpopo province, for example, Dutch, Finns or Austrians might disagree. ocratic South Africa is slipping away. The after more than half the school year had However, the debate has warned Karl- ruling African National Congress (ANC) already passed. sruhe not to interpret the constitution too is unable to deal decisively with impatience South Africa is in political drift.T he ANC strictly and to leave some room for Merkel born of the country’s high unemployment, is mired in corruption and intense leadership and her government. The 12th September devastating poverty and inequality. battles and its reaction to these crises has verdict suggests the court has understood The Mobutu jokes started after revela- been underwhelming, opening the door to the message. tions that President Jacob Zuma is build- populists to capitalise on anger among work- Katinka Barysch is deputy director of ing a homestead reportedly worth about ers and the poor. South Africa is not falling

© re u ter s © the Centre for European Reform ZAR203m (£14.5m) in the impoverished apart, nor is it another Zimbabwe, but its area of Nkandla, in rural KwaZulu- leadership is floundering and unable to fulfil Natal, where he grew up. The largely the promises of the Mandela years. Foreign taxpayer-funded project includes and domestic investors are raising questions underground living quarters with air- about future policy direction as the ANC has conditioned rooms, a helipad, a clinic repeatedly debated and failed to reach con- for the president and his family, sensus on nationalisation of mines and land. houses for security per- The problem is leadership. Zuma came sonnel and police units, to power on a populist ticket, buttressed by playgrounds and a visi- a “coalition of the wounded”—ANC leaders tors’ centre. who felt overlooked or targeted by Zuma’s News of Zuma’s predecessor Thabo Mbeki—which had no palace came just three coherent agenda or tested leaders. days after the rat- That was highlighted with devastat- ings agency Moody’s ing clarity when the Marikana massacre cut South Africa’s occurred on 16th August, and the ANC failed credit rating by a its people dismally. ANC parliamentarians notch to Baa1 from refused to visit the site, with one MP labelling A3, citing worries the workers “suicidal.” After facing insults, about the coun- cabinet members walked out of a memorial try’s institutional service for victims, leaving expelled ANC strength, invest- youth leader and populist Julius Malema ment climate to fill the leadership void they left behind. and future polit- Malema promptly said he would lead a “min- ical stability. ing revolution,” prompting many to ques- “The revi- tion who was running the country—Malema sion reflects or the ANC. Zuma has now euphemistically Moody’s view “authorised the employment” of the army in of the South African what many are saying is an undeclared state authorities’ reduced of emergency. capacity to handle the Things are unlikely to get better soon. Angela Merkel with Greek prime current political and ANC leaders are locked in election mode as minister Antonis Samaras economic situation the party goes to its conference from 16th

20 opinions prospect november 2012

December. Zuma and his rival, deputy presi- don the strategy it has only recently begun. dent Kgalema Motlanthe, have failed to com- Even though Chávez has been in power for 14 mit themselves on any issue, particularly years, almost all of the strides the opposition macroeconomic policy, instead declaring has made have come in the last two years. It that the conference will decide. took a decade to jettison the old generation In the meantime, the world’s most une- of political leaders responsible for the failed qual country drifts along, mired in pol- policies of the 1980s and 90s before Chávez icy uncertainty and worker revolt, while its was elected in 1998. Although Capriles may leader feeds at the trough like Sese Seko. have lost, he and his cohort of younger lead- Justice Malala is a politics writer in Johannesburg ers are the most potent challenge to Chávez— note that in October’s election Chávez added only 135,000 votes to his 2006 election total; the opposition added nearly 1.9m. Most modern authoritarians are more like Hugo Chávez than Muammar Gaddafi.T hey allow for some modicum of opposition, and at times a chance to challenge them at the polls. The Venezuelan opposition understood three basic points essential to effective cam- William J Dobson paigns against such regimes. First, the opposition must be unified. In Flawless failure Venezuela, that meant holding primary elections to winnow the field of candidates to the Chávez’s opponents must not one person best equipped to lead. It’s far eas- change course ier for a strongman to maintain his rule when his opponents are divided and bickering. Henrique Capriles didn’t do anything Second, it isn’t enough to be against the wrong. The 40-year-old Venezuelan opposi- regime—you must offer solutions. Capriles tion leader ran a nearly flawless presidential focused on Venezuelans’ real concerns: soar- campaign against Hugo Chávez. He was the ing crime, inflation, and corruption. He pro- right candidate—energetic, creative, passion- posed following Brazil’s successful economic ate and tireless—to go up against an ailing model and launching education initiatives to leader who makes no excuses for his desire to combat youth crime. Rather than overturn be president for life. all of Chávez’s social programs, he zeroed But near-perfection isn’t enough when in on those that have failed. While Chávez you are competing with a modern author- denounced him and his supporters as “fas- itarian like Hugo Chávez. All the same, cists,” Capriles responded with an inclusive even in failure, the Venezuelan opposition message that welcomed all Venezuelans. is offering a textbook lesson on how best to And finally, the opposition put forward challenge 21st century authoritarians and a a candidate who has a direct connection to guide to how Chávez (or one of his political the people. Capriles has been the governor of heirs) is likely to be dislodged in the future. Miranda, a large, politically influential state The Venezuelan presidential election, where 70 per cent live in poverty. He couldn’t held on 7th October, was never supposed to have become governor without the support of Teddy Wayne be close. The government did everything it the poor. As a presidential candidate, he cam- could to see to that. At rallies, Chávez and his paigned everywhere. He addressed massive Election: the board cronies used the state’s massive oil wealth to crowds in Chávista strongholds. In the last hand out refrigerators, washing machines, two months of the campaign, he travelled the game home appliances—even new homes—to length of the country—twice. How to win the US presidency those who professed their loyalty. While In the end, it wasn’t enough. That Chávez Capriles was limited to three minutes of TV could win on an uneven playing field is no advertisements each day, the government surprise. Nor should the country’s opposi- Play “Oval Office Contender”—the ulti- blanketed the airwaves with ads extolling tion be taken aback by what comes next: mate party game! Here are the easy- Chávez’s accomplishments. All radio and tel- Chávez will ratchet up the pressure. It was to-follow rules and regulations (for evision networks were required to carry the after his last presidential election that he complete instructions, please consult president’s speeches, which came nearly truly radicalised his agenda. With regional the 229-page Federal Election Cam- every day. Government employees—whose elections around the corner, he will look to paign Laws guide): ranks have swelled in the last decade—were destroy whatever inroads the opposition has reminded that their livelihoods depended on made. Expect selective corruption investiga- Objective: Reach the Oval Office before punching their ballots for Chávez. Polls vary, tions, greater censorship and anything that anyone else. but with as much as half of the population could sow discord in the opposition’s ranks. doubting that voting is secret, it’s a potent Even though the opposition failed to deliver a Players: For two or more political players, threat. Fear and free goods are durable cur- shocking upset, it got the caudillo’s attention. ages 35 and up (natural-born Americans rencies for a modern authoritarian. If it holds true to their new playbook, when it only), with minimum net worth of several Capriles may have done nothing wrong, does succeed, it won’t be shocking to anyone. million dollars. but his defeat could still lead to a grave error: William J Dobson is foreign editor at Slate the Venezuelan opposition could aban- and author of “The Dictator’s Learning Curve” Contents: Oval game board, die, game prospect november 2012 opinions 21

Advertising You’ve been Swift-Boated by a shadowy group accusing you of having sort of caused 9/11! Go back to debates and criticise your rival for the proxy attack, then both of you go back two spaces and donate War Che$t cards to TV networks

Twitter Gaffe One of your staff tweets an ethnic slur on your official Twitter account; lose three million Twitter followers overall, gain 500,000 from Texas

Debates Roll the die— If even number, advance one space because of charming quip and good hair day; odd, go back one space because of clumsily worded attack on rival and clash- ing outfit

Endorsements Win endorsement from George W Bush; lose game

Election! November surprise: will it be haemorrhag- ing of jobs in the automobile industry, an unearthed sex scandal with a campaign worker, or a third-party independent who makes a big splash in a swing state? Find out by drawing a Political Wildcard!

Recount! Supreme Court given power to decide pieces: soldier’s helmet (“War Hero”); Primaries presidency; roll the die— thick government budget (“Experienced Evidence of youthful drink driving discov- If even number, advance to Oval Office; Wonk”); Hollywood star (“Charismatic ered; go back to fundraising but gain vote odd number, return to private sector as Actor”); American football (“Sports of college students who formerly consid- highly paid board member and consultant Icon”); helmeted hair (“Handsome Guy”); ered you boring who wields more power than the president rising sun (“Audacious Optimist”); sensible trouser suit (“Female Candidate”); sil- Religious Convictions Estimated playing time: Two years. ver spoon (“Self-Made Titan of Industry”). Democrats: Make token gesture toward Expect several players, and numerous Two decks of cards: green “War Che$t” God in one speech, lose Authentic- onlookers, to drop out due to exhaustion. and red “Political Wildcard” ity Points from both liberals and conservatives Teddy Wayne is the author of the novel Stages of the game and sample spaces: Republicans: Dispute evolution; set “Kapitoil” and the forthcoming “The Love Song Europe’s view of Americans back 150 years of Jonny Valentine” (Free Press) Declaring Your Candidacy Pundit finds years-old newspaper column Picking a Vice President you wrote that contradicts your current Roll the die— positions. Media immediately casts you as Republicans: If even number, pick former a flip-flopper; go back two spaces, then for- minister; odd number, septuagenarian in ward two, then back two, then forward two public office sinceN ixon administration; if die falls off board, relatively unknown poli- Fundraising tician of questionable intellect Infelicitous speech insulting half the coun- Democrats: If even number, pick south- try at private dinner captured on video ern white male; odd number, someone and posted on internet; lose a turn apolo- with white hair for gravitas; if die falls off gising for your mistake and return last two board, Joe Biden War Che$t cards Convention Spousal Support If no one has a majority of the delegates,

g able Your wife loses Family Circle’s Presiden- roll to see who claims the superdelegates; tial Cookie Bake-Off and is criticised for if players roll the same number, then fight

© brian © her dress; go back in time to 1953 on the convention floor and return to start “Take us to Boris” © Workers’ Photos/Rex Features journal the in appeared justHobsbawm had that In “revivalnarrative”ofhistorical inwriting. Lawrence previousa tojournalessaythesame inby 22 History.” He lives in Bangalore. after Gandhi” and “Environmentalism: A Global Ramachandra Guha’s books include “India by piece pungent short, a to visor Kolkata, I was directed by my thesis super In 1980, as a beginning graduate student in world but his politics hampered his later works Eric Hobsbawm influenced historians across the A British internationalist Ramachandra Guha S tone’sview, thiswelcomewas a depar Past and Present S oe wih eertd the celebrated which tone, . T his was a response E ric - - an armed insurgent named Kishenji, much understand to seeking when 2011, in him first read HobsbawmI readlast 1980; I in institutions. and values human to meant eventsand processes in terms of what they explain synthesise, to analyse and to also torianswritewell,neededtothey buthad his sure, be misplaced; to umphalism as O of week first the in Hobsbawm, died who discipline. the dominated previously had entific and (not least) social-sci analytical, arid, the from ture tbr t h ae f 5 saw 95, of age the atctober Obituary

M arxiantrends that S tone’s tri - - - very long life and very active career. 30 books published over seven decades of a therewasgreat a deal for ustoread: some flesh likewise read his work veryican closely. historians And who never saw thetive: man otherin Indian,the African and Latin Amer life.suspectI my experience representais keptcompanyme throughout myworking rs—f o el itrcl r political or significance. historical real no press—of right-wing the paranoia of the and image self- inflated his but—despite daring and learnt to see Kishenji as a figure of romance with whom he tribalsidentified. and peasants From the Hobsbawm by refugegiven I therichandkilling policemen whilebeing Hobsbawm what called be a “social to rather bandit,” seemed raiding he but Delhi; wouldoneday capture state power in saw himself as an Indian written about in the Indian press. I neverI met E prospect november 2012 november prospect ricHobsbawm, yet hehas M ao Zedong, who T he man N ew - - prospect november 2012 a british internationalist 23

The output was impressive, as was the France, has treated with such respect and not insignificant. His orthodoxM arxism did range. Hobsbawm’s works fell broadly into even deference. From Gibbon and Macaulay not allow Hobsbawm to engage with excit- three categories. The books most widely through GM Trevelyan and AJP Taylor, on ing new trends such as cultural history and prescribed in university courses were his to Niall Ferguson and Simon Schama, his- environmental history. When, in the late broad-brush histories of the 19th century: torians have been public figures in Brit- 1980s, Past and Present began publishing The Age of Revolution (1962), The Age of Cap- ain. In the 19th and 20th centuries they essays on the history of forests and wildlife, ital (1975) and The Age of Empire (1987). often outsold popular novelists while being he grumbled to a mutual friend, the Cata- These were macro-histories covering a wide quoted respectfully in parliament and lan polymath Joan Martinez-Alier, that the spatial scale, written within a classically being granted peerages and masterships radicalism of the journal was being diverted Marxist framework; strong on economics of Oxbridge colleges. In the 21st century, and diluted by mere fashion. and technology with some (if not excessive) they have done all this and anchored televi- A more substantial cost of this dogma- room for culture. sion series—and had their personal lives dis- tism was manifest in Hobsbawm’s later writ- The books by Hobsbawm best known to cussed in the tabloid press, too. ings. Here, he never squarely confronted the the non-academic reading public are The violence and brutalities of communism. His Age of Extremes (1994) and Interesting Times “His orthodox Marxism books on the 20th century skate over the (2002). The first book is a history of what he did not allow him to Nazi-Soviet pact and the horrors of collec- called the “short twentieth century”—from tivisation while providing the reader with the onset of the first world war in 1914 to the engage with new the pathetic consolation that fascism was final collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. historical trends such as worse than communism. The second covers the same period, but in Hobsbawm’s friends, in appreciations more personal terms. Wars, states and tech- cultural and printed the day after he died, boasted that nological innovations are viewed from the environmental history” his own works were never published in the vantage point, and individual experience, of Soviet Union. This seems a conspicuously a boy born in Alexandria and growing up in There were, and are, British historians weak defence. The question, surely, is not Vienna and Berlin before settling down in who were, and are, more famous and pow- what the Soviets thought of him, but what Britain, from where, as an established and erful within Britain than Eric Hobsbawm this famous intellectual thought or wrote of ever more influential academic, he travels and EP Thompson. But in global terms the persecution of Boris Pasternak, Andrei across Europe, North America and other the influence of Hobsbawm and Thomp- Sakharov and Aleksander Solzhenitsyn; of continents. son massively outranks that of their pred- the gulag and the purges; of the economic The majestic 19th century trilogy and ecessors, peers or successors. This may be and human costs of planning by state fiat; the two, very differently cast, 20th century because they knew that history was both of the Soviet invasions of Hungary in 1956, histories are abundantly available in book- a social science and a branch of literature. Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan shops. Yet the works by Hobsbawm that Hobsbawm talked a great deal to econo- in 1979. On these questions, so crucial to had the most enduring intellectual impact, mists and political scientists and learnt the politics and public life of his own time, and are most admired by scholars, live on much from them. Thompson had pro- Hobsbawm was alternately silent, evasive only in libraries. These are his studies of the ductive friendships with anthropologists, and euphemistic. struggles of workers, craftsmen and peas- sociologists and literary scholars. As a con- By any standards, Eric Hobsbawm’s ants in early industrial Europe—books such sequence, their histories were rigorously intellectual achievements were staggering. as Primitive Rebels (1959), Labouring Men researched—brimming with primary mate- His books on the 19th century and his pre- (1964), Captain Swing (1969—written with rials gathered in the archives—but also ana- cocious studies of popular protest will con- George Rudé) and Bandits (1969). These lytically robust, reaching beyond the how tinue to be read, and reread, in countries far books demonstrate (pace Lawrence Stone) and when to the why and to what purpose. distant from his own. But his later works that Marxists too can sometimes write with Hobsbawm and Thompson were both illustrate that still valid and still widely dis- real flair and feeling, sensitively probing the internationalists. A European by birth, honoured dictum of George Orwell’s: no emotions, ambitions, failings and hopes of Hobsbawm had travelled extensively in writer must be a loyal member of a politi- ordinary individuals seeking to challenge Latin America. Thompson’s father worked cal party. new or established structures of power and for many years in India, while his American authority. mother grew up in the Middle East. Later, Eric John Ernest Hobsbawm In these books, Hobsbawm helped invent his involvement with the peace movement 9th June 1917 – 1st October 2012 what is called “history from below.” To be brought him in close contact with other sure, the invention was not his alone—his parts of Europe. In either case, personal fellow British Marxists George Rudé and biography reinforced an instinctively capa- EP Thompson can claim an equal share of cious intellectual vision, producing histories credit. Rudé had come to the subject even that were more analytically broad minded before Hobsbawm, while Thompson was a than was (and often still is) the norm. finer stylist, bringing a passion and grace to In a pure, technical sense, Hobsbawm his prose that was in part (but only in part) may have been the more skilled historian. due to the fact that English was his first He knew more languages, and he had a (and more or less his only) language. surer grasp of technology and econom- Growing up, intellectually speaking, ics. But Thompson was the more evoca- in the 1980s, I read EP Thompson with as tive writer and, in political (and dare I say much attention (and marginally greater moral) terms, the more courageous man. admiration) than I did Eric Hobsbawm. When the Soviets invaded Hungary in History, as much as historians, will remem- 1956, Thompson left theC ommunist party, ber them together as unquestionably the but Hobsbawm stayed, a loyal party man greatest British practitioners of a schol- till the end. arly craft that no other nation, not even The costs of this political obstinacy were ADVERTISING FEATURE INTELLECTUAL POWER GAMES A KEY ASPECT TO BUILDING WEALTH IS TO GRASP WHAT WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE. IDENTIFYING SUCH TRENDS IS AT THE CORE OF AN INITIATIVE BY COUTTS CALLED FUTURESCOPE. IN THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SIX, COUTTS EXAMINES HOW A NETWORKED MULTI-POLAR WORLD IS THREATENING TO DESTABILISE THE DYNAMICS OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

e are entering a world more investor interest than backward- Suntech, First Solar and Q-Cells, in which intellectual looking financial performance. have sophisticated global patent property is becoming Inventing the future focuses on strategies. South Korea, led by the bargaining chip in how intelligence about intellectual Samsung, is building substantial anW increasingly geo-political business capital and patent activity can give assets around graphene (see case game – a game that is worth billions us vital clues about both emerging study) and nano-materials. of pounds a year to the winners. business themes and their influence on But China’s prominence is raising The figures tell the earlier part national competitive prospects. It also many questions. Which ideas matter? of the story: worldwide spending gives us clues about economic growth, Which patents represent true paradigm on research and development industry ecosystem structures and shifts? Are they surrounded by ideas increased by 7 per cent a year over ultimately future corporate value. This, that can be freely licensed? Do they the 10 years to 2009. According to in turn, provides insight into potential leave older patents falling into the the Government commissioned winners and losers among countries, category of being worthless assets? report, Digital Opportunity: A Review industry asset classes and corporations. It is natural that national strategies of Intellectual Property and Growth, play a central role in the creation of global trade in patent and creative China makes its charge future value. In the powerhouses industry licences are worth around China, for instance, is well on the of ‘state capitalism’, innovation £600bn a year - and rising. way to becoming a major IP exporter. is directed towards solving major Little wonder that trade secrets Its patent applications have grown national challenges, which are diverse and rights protection are vital. Yet the from about 50,000 a year to 300,000 and go beyond value associated with dynamics behind intellectual capital a year since 2000 and while sheer wealth creation and investment are changing fast – and the West must numbers only tell part of the story, returns. Ideas about social good, adapt if it is to remain competitive many Chinese companies, such as well-being, employment, sustainable against two significant threats: the rapid growth of know-how emerging

from Asian companies and the Investment in UK intellectual property on the rise (£bn) increasing incidents of cyber crime. World trade agreements have traditionally been shaped by the basic dynamics of the relationship between intellectual property (IP) ‘exporters’ and IP ‘importers’. This relationship has inﬂuenced not only national bargaining positions, but also the ebb and ﬂow of globalisation and protectionism. Patents are a form of evidence, pointing to originality and potential commercial value. They are a vital and increasingly important component of corporate strategy underpinning valuations as they begin to attract Source: NESTA (2011)

C000470_Advetorial_Prospect_Mag_Futurescope4pp_v13.indd 4 11/10/2012 15:54 water and food supplies, as well as “China’s patent to expand in foreign markets. The financial assets, are also important. competitive balance is in favour But it is noteworthy that the applications have grown of the western multinationals, World Bank’s recent China 2030 from 50,000 a year to driven by their deep-rooted ability report highlighted the marked shift to continuously invent and adapt. in emphasis, from the government 300,000 a year” Meanwhile, many European countries providing tangible public goods and continue to struggle to find the right services to “intangible public goods For example, many recent cuts in US formula for productive growth. and services such as systems, rules, and spending have focused on research, The stakes are high, which policies, which increase production development and education. explains the rhetoric in US politics efficiency, promote competition, Even so, western companies and the Eurozone. IP has a valuable enhance resource allocation and continue to benefit from China’s role in protecting jobs - never more protect the environment”. growth. Many of them have developed so than during recessionary times In contrast, public spending in significant market share in China’s and this has intensified the battle the West has focused on rescuing and domestic markets while retaining to steal a march on peers. Not reinventing vulnerable businesses. their competitive market power surprisingly, mistrust is pervasive. > Spending on future value has suffered. against Chinese companies attempts

C000470_Advetorial_Prospect_Mag_Futurescope4pp_v13.indd 5 11/10/2012 15:54 ADVERTISING FEATURE

> Cyber crime challenge is easier to achieve transparency in and copies of Airbnb, and eHarmony. While major Chinese firms that aim to trade wars if they are about specific The key point is that these grow globally are focusing on adopting products, but if the underlying source businesses are replicated at speed. international norms for intellectual of value is embedded in pools of expert Groupon was allegedly replicated in capital protection, many are being knowledge and corporate IP vaults, the 14 countries in just five months. scrutinised because of security challenges are all the more difficult. So we have the emergence of concerns. Only a few months ago, Some of these arguments blur two-tier innovation: the genuine the Australian government blocked the moral and policy boundaries for originals with blockbuster ideas that the Chinese telecommunications what is ‘fair use’. They are sometimes will shape generations to come. Look giant Huawei from bidding to build used as justification for large-scale no further here than with graphene, its national broadband infrastructure, theft of intellectual capital. In other often described as the “miracle citing security concerns. The recent cases, open replication or copycat material” of the 21st Century. On the ‘advisory’ draft report from the US businesses are emerging as a threat to other hand, the second tier will simply Congress committee on intelligence established operators, who either lack innovate replication businesses. a defensible business model based But the two-tier concept is made Groupon was on IP rights, or depend on reputation more complex, because mistrust and and established networks of users. accusations go beyond copying. It replicated in 14 There are cases where specialists includes cyber crime and intellectual countries in just in ‘copycat’ businesses have ‘cloned’ capital piracy. The internet is a deep Groupon and Fab, an e-commerce ocean that cannot be easily navigated five months design site, among others, as well as and modern day cyber pirates are hard creating a German version of eBay to detect and increasingly dangerous. also raised concerns that Huawei was a risk to security. The claims have been strongly rejected by Huawei. These arguments can become emotive for many reasons, but the underlying drivers of uncertainty and mistrust are rooted in the language To connect with our thinking on this and insights on other topics visit that pervades everything about coutts.com/knowledge intellectual capital: intangible. It

C000470_Advetorial_Prospect_Mag_Futurescope4pp_v13.indd 6 11/10/2012 15:54 The scale of the security threats to national and corporate security CASE STUDY/GRAPHENE: THE “MIRACLE MATERIAL” makes headline news around the world. There is a critical relationship between intellectual property and Graphene is the world’s thinnest, strongest, most conductive new material security, but as Baroness Neville- – with potentially game-changing applications across many industries. While Jones, former UK defence minister, HMWGSZIVIHMRXLI9/MXVIQEMRWYRGPIEV[LS[MPPYPXMQEXIP]FIRI½XXLIQSWX recently warned: “There is a vast from the commercialisation of this “miracle material”. swathe of corporates, who have 1ER]GSQTERMIWEVIHIWTIVEXIP]XV]MRKXSKIXXLIVI½VWX+VETLIRIMWE valuable intellectual property, much game changer. It is a new state of the art material with countless, potentially more valuable than they understand, VIZSPYXMSREV]ETTPMGEXMSRWEGVSWWQER]MRHYWXVMIW-XMWXLIX]TISJWGMIRXM½G which is inadequately protected.” discovery that evokes fanciful images of an approaching futuristic world and The fear is that global governance suggests untold opportunities for entrepreneurs. systems are failing to grasp the scale First isolated in 2004 by Sir Konstantin Novoselov and Sir Andre Geim from or the severity of the emerging the University of Manchester, who won the 2010 Nobel Prize in Physics for their risks, which will lead to skirmishes research, graphene is a 2-D, nano-material comprised of an isolated plane of between the major powers, growing graphite atoms, forming the thinnest material one can possibly imagine. mistrust, and stress on geo- Its electrical properties make it the best conductor of heat in existence. It is political and economic stability. also extremely strong, with a breaking strength 200 times greater than steel, giving Intellectual capital is crucial it potentially radical applications in aerospace and the automobile industry, among whether the future is a multi-polar many others. world or a non-polar world because The commercial implications of this for computer engineering, semi-conductors power is more than ever networked and microchip design are profound. Graphene’s unique optical characteristics will between nation states, cultures and IREFPIWMKRM½GERXEHZERGIQIRXWMRPEWIVXIGLRSPSKMIWXSYGLWGVIIRWPMUYMHGV]WXEP corporations. We are going through displays, solar cells, ultra-capacitors and batteries, to name but a few. a transitional stage, as the new IP Not surprisingly, intense patent activity around graphene is underway within exporters from Asia rebalance the universities, entrepreneurial new technology companies and large established trade in intellectual capital in the corporations. context of the new world order and Samsung is one notable giant company that is pursuing an aggressive and begin to ﬁnd common ground that effective strategy with a robust network of inventors and researchers working reconciles diverging interests. to advance the technology. Its network has grown six-fold in just over two years, This common interest may be H[EV½RKEGXMZMX]IPWI[LIVIERHTSWMXMSRMRK7SYXL/SVIEEWETSXIRXMEPP]HSQMRERX in creating novel forms of ‘open force across a wide range of materials science industries. innovation’, driven by publicly 'LMREMWJSVKMRKELIEHXSSMXWKVETLIRITEXIRX½PMRKWLEZIGPMQFIHJVSQ funded institutions in the West and per cent of the global total in 2007 to 11 per cent in 2011. The UK, meanwhile, increasingly by major corporations’ has pledged £50bn investment into the commercialisation of graphene. eagerness to stay ahead. At the same time, national governments around the world are moving ,S[TEXIRXEGXMZMX]VI¾IGXWXLIGLERKMRK[SVPH towards both improving IP systems 2007 2011 of governance and recognising its link with productive economic 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 8.0% 0.3% growth, trust and social well-being. 15.0% 17.0% 5.0% 24.0% It appears that policymakers 1.0% are now beginning to embrace 1.0% 11.0% the hybrid model of speed and 8.0% know-how (combined with 0.3% patent protection) being used 1.0% 8.0% by corporations. While storms lie ahead, the course, it seems, is set. 1.0%

42.0% Commissioned by Coutts from 55.0% Peter Kingsley, PJR/Cambridge IP 2012 World IP Organisation (WIPO) Central and South America World IP Organisation (WIPO) Japan US PTO China US PTO South Korea Canada Japan Canada Other Asian Patents European Patents (EPO & National) South Korea European Patents (EPO & National) Israel Central and South America Russia and USSR China

Source: CambridgeIP research, 2012

C000470_Advetorial_Prospect_Mag_Futurescope4pp_v13.indd 7 11/10/2012 15:54 28 prospect november 2012 Features Survival of special forces 28 Labour’s lost votes 36 The curious case of the Sherlock Holmes pilgrims 42 China: in love with cars 50 Suicide: a cry for real help 54 Adventures with Oliver Sacks 56

Survival of the fittest Conflicts since 9/11 have given special forces new prominence. They may fare less well as politicians prepare for the wars of the future robert fry

he former US Navy SEAL writing under the pseu- units that have a defining quality, that are preserved for a pur- donym Mark Owen provoked an extraordinary range pose other than the grinding battle and are committed to the fight of responses with the publication of his account of only on the order of the highest level of command populate his- the operation to kill Osama bin Laden, No Easy Day. tory from Alexander the Great’s Silver Shields to Orde Wingate’s Originally slated for release on the symbolic 11th Chindits (the largest of the Allied special forces in the second TSeptember, it was rushed out early to meet a demand that had world war). Yet most have failed to survive the circumstances of already placed it at the top of the Amazon and Barnes & Noble their creation as regimes change, armies revert to orthodoxy and online bestseller lists; in the case of Amazon, displacing Fifty elite forces become a political embarrassment. One of the signal Shades of Grey. achievements of British and American special forces is to break Owen’s book raised issues of the legality of the bin Laden this cycle, at least until now, by a process of constant adaptation. raid as well as the opportunism of the politicians who ordered In the specific case of theS ea Air Land teams, they are drawn it and have subsequently milked its success. It also highlighted from across the US naval service. A small element of the SEALs, the rights and responsibilities of special forces operators seek- known colloquially as SEAL Team 6 but more accurately and ing a public voice. But perhaps more than anything else it was inelegantly as the Naval Special Warfare Development Group, a public discourse on the role of special forces in contemporary combines with the 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment— iconography—on the unique place they have won on the battle- Delta, drawn mainly from the US army—to make up the Tier 1 of field, in politicians’ reckoning of national assets and in the pub- US special forces. lic imagination. This core is made up of personnel who survive a Darwinian It has been a long romance, which began with the creation of selection process that limits numbers of the top tier to only a few these shadowy elite forces more than 70 years ago, a process led hundred, in both the US and UK. Individually, special forces sol- by Britain and which others have followed. The Special Air Serv- diers tend to be more reflective and solitary than their conven- ice, or SAS, erupted into the public consciousness with the end of tional military peers, accurately representing an organisation the 1980 Iranian embassy siege in London, relayed live on prime- that bases its strength on individual rather than collective com- time television on the May Day bank holiday to an audience of petence, the inverse of the relationship sought in conventional millions. Its motto, “Who Dares Wins,” has lodged itself in the soldiering. public mind. But it is the wars of 9/11—confused, episodic and For those nations that choose to seek genuine excellence in offering only fleeting opportunities to engage an elusive enemy— their special forces, the numbers are remarkably consistent and that have seen special forces lead the military response ahead of indicate a finite proportion of the general and military popula- more deliberate conventional military units. Public celebrity has tions equipped to meet the selection criteria. For those nations attended success and Mark Owen’s account has fed a keen popu- that do not seek excellence but rather the designer accessory lar demand for insight into these enclosed military orders. How- without which no despot’s public inventory is complete, the num- ever, strategic challenges change and as the 9/11 era draws to a bers can be higher and the uniforms more gorgeous. Britain pro- close special forces will have to re-cast themselves for different duces about the same number of special forces soldiers a year as conflicts where their unique qualities may have to share a stage Oxbridge colleges produce double firsts. with other, more prosaic, military capabilities. And it is the British example that has set an historical stand- Who are these people and where do they come from? Military ard for special forces, drawing on two separate traditions. The first is the soldier romantic, perhaps best defined by DavidS tir- Robert Fry, Deputy Commanding General of coalition forces in Iraq for ling, who founded the SAS in 1941. This tradition would climb most of 2006, is now a businessman and academic prospect november 2012 survival of the fittest 29 ure s at fe pre ss /rex a s ip © The SAS breaks the siege of the Iranian embassy in London, May 1980; prime minister Margaret Thatcher said they made her “proud to be British” © Imperial war museum, getty images N last refuge), the Lawrence brothers and, perhapsJamesAbbott (whoabove gave hisname toAbbottabad,all, binJohnLaden’s century. theroleGreatinGamein B experience to compare to the authority and ismindependence as a self-definingof the mythology, therewhile wasthe little Western in Frontierthe American may have created rugged individual decisive factors in the second world war and the U C olution.processA begun bythe Union forces theinAmerican warsbytheapplication industrialof technique conflictto res capacity for insouciant savagery still recognisable today. metaphysical presence in the raids tinguishedhe led from 1941 onwards. our,won Irish and a man of preternatural physical strength and brooding demean when “ inate violence, almost certainly best represented by the E tour.grand aircraft in E Left, Lt Col Robert Blair “Paddy” Mayne. Right, the Long Range Desert Group of the SAS after months behind enemy lines, north Africa, 1942 30 P verest because it was there and would have attacked German ritish colonial political officer or the subaltern playing a cameo ivilWar found fullexpression theintwentieth century when lroy Flecker’s words inscribed on the memorial clock tower of S icholson were the spiritual antecedents of addy” T a traditions created two combination, successful these In We are the T Across that angry or that glimmering sea. B Always a little further; it may be industrialcapacitytechnological and innovation werethe S he second tradition is the capacity for implacable but discrim here was no equivalent U eyond that last blue mountain barred with snow A S S tirlingwascaptured andimprisoned in base at Hereford: V M ictorianimperial heroes like Francis Younghusband, N S ayne,whotookover command thewartime of ervice E orth Africa as a naturalaAfrica orthextensionas a of P e tdy i mgt rw t ced rm James from creed its draw might today, ven it ilgrims, master; we shall go O B rders. His contemporaries record a sense of ritishLions rugby caps aswell asfour Dis C entraltheAsianineteenthmidin S tradition; America has fought its S tirling and C C olditz. old War. And, R obert survival of the fittest the of survival E uropean M M ayne, B ayne S lair A S - - - - - power; neither would it survive the followingcompared thetoUK’sdecade. $63bn), norany other index nationalof land.Large numbers of conventional forces have provided a istanhavefacsimile foughtbeenathat in asof ofthe two countries (U equivalence bore no relationship to the conventional force ratios Laden is the final act of redemption. cue American hostages held in Iran for which the killing of bin C f prtos n eoe n sensitive conditions. and remote operations in of and reach, the 9/11evenly balanced. While theAmericans could callscaleon transferred, whole and incongruous, to the traditional accoutrements of the Fort with’s homage to the the tary response and, in the late 1970s, Delta ism combinedForce to makewas a compellingcreated caseand for a specialised mili until his insistent evangelism and the rise of international terror thatitwasfighting in U cialised small unit operations as the necessary corrective to the the Korea and whoserved in Indo- etr; Jacquescentury; twentieth late the of wars small the in appeared who acters rised the withU correspondingthereandnowas historical ofsense continuity law in April 1980, the abortive and humiliating attempt to res S t smlsi lvl te apin i Ia ad Afghan and Iraq in campaigns the level, simplistic a At B B B habitsmassdeployment of theinwaramongst thepeople S SE ritish and American special forces embarked on the wars of eckwith’s career ended with the debacle of cwt ws n o toe ii, sometimesflawed, vivid, char those of one waseckwith B A C raggsaw an outbreak of brogues, tweed and gundogs as S ALs followed a short time later. For a brief period, S hina and Algeria,andandhina , he became a proselyte of the specialforces until, thatis, B ritish model. V ietnam punctuated, crucially, by an attachment to B M ritish were credited with an atavistic knowledge alayathein1950s, areothers. After service in M S su te rnh eea wo ogt in fought who general French the assu, A V S S ietnam.Heremained anisolated voice defence spending was $711bn in2012, was so complete that the Delta base at M ike C B C B alvertthe prospect november 2012 november prospect ritish officers’ mess were N harlie ritish techniques of spe orth C B O arolina. eckwithplagia peration B N ritish officerritish orthernIre T i broad his B E agle eck

------101334_gbr_smb_oct_3b_4c_pcp_fp210x275_prospect_megazine_pr.ind101334_gbr_smb_octt_3b_4c_pcp_fp2100x2275_prospectt_megazine_pr.indd 1 10/8/1210/8/12 44:04:04 PPMM 32 survival of the fittest prospect november 2012

public face and tried to hold the ring in support of fragile civil political constituency? A glance at the pattern of US operations structures, while special forces, in and out of uniform, have in Waziristan or Yemen charts this latest transition and illus- engaged a range of enemies ever more closely in order to create trates the way in which the US military shares the wider national the necessary preconditions for a political settlement. The scale, vocation of innovation. An army trained, equipped and deployed ferocity and effectiveness of the special forces campaigns fought against four different core assumptions in ten years is quick work in Iraq from 2003 onwards and more latterly in Afghanistan are by any standard and it sets the scene for Mark Owen’s footnote to yet to find full public record. Mark Urban, diplomatic editor of the history of our times. Newsnight, captured elements of the fight in his bookTask Force Operation Neptune Spear, the raid on bin Laden’s compound, Black, but a full audit of these operations still awaits its author. took risks at a number of levels. The sovereignty of a major ally would be wilfully disregarded; indeed, a confrontation with Paki- hat is clear though is that the traditional cot- stani air defence or ground forces was entirely possible. A suc- tage industry scale of special forces operations cessful operation might imply Pakistani complicity in hiding bin has been elevated to industrial levels. The spe- Laden; an unsuccessful one would represent a hideous failure of cial forces operators kicking down the doors intelligence. Presidential re-election might benefit from success Wremain the same people, in the same numbers. However, now and it would certainly suffer from failure. wrapped around them is an army of military support groups, In many ways the risks grew in inverse proportion to the dis- linguists, analysts, interrogators, computer and forensic geeks, tance from the objective. The technical challenge of the insertion all linked from the operating theatre by huge data pipes to the of the forces from Jalalabad to Abbottabad was well within the parent intelligence agencies in the US and UK. This is where the competence of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment. US penchant for scale kicks in and is the point at which it pulls Aided by stealth technology, superb flying skills and the habit away from all other countries. There is nothing to separate US of the Pakistani integrated air defence system to look east to its and UK special forces; the difference in the national capabilities strategic nemesis, India, rather than west to Afghanistan, the lies in the size and sophistication of the supporting structures. force was inserted and later recovered without major incident. Any witness to the relentless application of military violence that Minor incident, in the form of the crash of a Blackhawk hel- destroyed al Qaeda in Iraq, forced the recalcitrant Sunni to the icopter, concentrated minds but the assault on the bin Laden negotiating table in Baghdad and continues to punish the Tal- compound was little more than routine and certainly easier than iban will recognise the quintessentially American qualities of the SEALs might have expected. There were none of the devices scale, technological sophistication and driving sense of purpose. they had become inured to in a decade of house clearances: no The Abbottabad raid not only closed the account on bin Laden, cleared fields of fire, no prepared obstacles or booby traps, no it also showed US special forces operating front and centre of the defended citadel or fervent jihadist awaiting a martyr’s death by national military structures. firing his explosive vest close to the assaulting troops. Rather, In turn, this had wider implications for US military strat- there was a middle-aged man with a dyed beard and an obsession egy. At 9/11, America’s strategic world view was dominated by with his back catalogue of videos starring himself, surrounded by the Powell Doctrine, named afterC olin Powell, the former chair- his extended family and retainers. Resistance was brief and des- man of the Joint Chiefs and secretary of state to George Bush, ultory and Owen is unable to conceal his contempt for a phenom- which resolved only to deploy US forces under conditions of enon he claims to have seen repeatedly: “the higher up the food overwhelming superiority. Donald Rumsfeld took office with chain the targeted individual was, the bigger the pussy he was.” the hunch that this was no more than a manifesto for profligate For the SEALs it may have been another day, another dollar military spending and he immediately saw the opportunity to but for the Central Intelligence Agency it was a triumph. Since overturn this assumption by the limited and economic use in bin Laden’s escape from Tora Bora in 2001, the agency had been Afghanistan of special forces, suitcases of CIA money and the smarting at its failures then and its inability since to track him convenient proxy of the Northern Alliance to defeat the Taliban down. It may be that the regimented structures of Soviet govern- quickly and install Hamid Karzai in power. ance or the Iraqi Republican Guard had habituated CIA analysts But while the Rumsfeld Doctrine may have been right for to expect form, hierarchy and structure amongst its enemies, Afghanistan, a weak state but a strong society, it was not appro- characteristics conspicuously absent in al Qaeda. The organisa- priate for Iraq, a strong state but a weak society. Over the years tion had always been loose and organic, a tendency exaggerated from 2003 to 2006 US forces learned the hard lessons of coun- by the pressure of American attacks. While the CIA continued ter insurgency which then provided the core script for the later to seek vertical patterns of organisation, al Qaeda conducted its “Surge” of forces followed by US disengagement. However, even operations by horizontal proliferation of its command. But as America was unwilling to accept the cost in blood, treasure time went on the CIA became more flexible in its approach and, and political capital that the remaking of societies through the eventually, in the hunt for bin Laden, got lucky. techniques of counter insurgency implied. A replacement coun- Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti had long been of interest, but it ter terrorist doctrine is now emerging. was only in 2007 that he was identified as Mohammed Arshad Counter terrorism avoids the uncongenial burden of large Khan, who, though he was brought up in Kuwait, was a Paki- scale soldiering in other people’s countries and concentrates on stani national. Fluent in Arabic, Urdu and Pushto, Khan was the killing the bad guys, at as great a distance as possible. It is puni- ideal facilitator and when, in 2009, the CIA identified his mobile tive rather than reconciliatory and has the decisive advantage of number, it was able to build an intriguing network. A year later, being cheap. Why, runs the argument favoured by vice president Khan was physically located in Peshawar and followed to a com- Joe Biden, and others, would you put US boots on the ground pound in Abbottabad where a tall man, dubbed The Pacer, was when the occasional special forces raid and a sky full of drones seen to take occasional exercise. Khan was the first to die in the can do the same job without hazard to American life or domestic subsequent assault. sion may have contained a certain element of pullinevitability. the trigger would be politically terminal and his final deci T neverlaunched, details of the operation would eventually leak. lived almost adjacent to service,theI tions of the omnipresence of the in a place known locally as the Arabbin Ladencompound. could have hidden in plain sight from the authorities in risk, seems no more than fair. Yetwas is intimatelywas Hilary involved in, and which carried enormous political operations. getingthanthe morevisceral business largeof scale deployed better equipped for the intellectual abstraction of selective tar ter-terroriststrategy, anotherat level mightit suitpresidenta tration. In part, this trend simply followsengagements the emerginghave U multiplied since the endhighlyaggressiveterrorist pursuitoftargetshisof drone andin the lead from behind in some areas of national security,expected hethis has beento happen. neverWhile process, political the for contempt concealed lightlypresidenttheir may have chosen to interestingis notethattoin B than its ability to conduct a single nightleadership raid. that is the real measure of American success, rather tional security and sanctioned by appropriate levels of political andmilitary action, conducted over years, protected by opera co-ordinationtheintelligence,is world. ofit And surveillance come as no surprise to those with experience of the intelligenceinvolved in the operation were women, an observation that will only the U wasprobably notcapable ofthe binLaden operation; by 2011, A special forces sniper in Iraq in the act of killing an enemy 300 metres from his position prospect november 2012 november prospect o be the president who had bin Laden in his sights but failed to arack P How much did the N R eter eportssuggest amajority of the one of this, of course,this,ofofonewould possible be unless O B ergen’s book bamahad been convinced and given the go-ahead. It S was capable of it. T S hat I, alsomakedifficultI,it believe to could he have O bama has takenoperationbamahascreditforan he P Manhunt akistanis know? It seems impossible that P akistan’s equivalent of O , who observed that, even if it was wen’saccountthe P akistani military intelligence C IAanalysts most closely B C efore 9/11, the U O S linton, recorded andhurst with ur pre-concep B SE ush adminis survival of the fittest the of survival ALs, withALs, P resident S coun S ------and Laden, few shared these misgivings. politicaldoctrine Wanted:of DeadAlive.or theIn bincaseof executioner,andjudge,jury actingas perhapsinformeda by tutional left will always be provoked byfound thedifferently. idea ofLeaving militaryaside elitesformal legal process, the insti this is to glance at the way in which some former special forces sense of shame” pervaded the domestic “diffuse, nonethelesscorrespondent, real inchoate but a that nudge us in the direction of incompetence. but the observation by Jason breathtaking institutional incompetence is not an attractive one huh thethough lawfulkilling,verdictof a by dismissed was issue the raised, of engagement under which they were operating. Having been regardless of the formal orders they had received and the rules also ignores the dynamics of small unit organicmilitarylevel,moreit war. a just At criteria oftheformityoperations. to ten the collapse of the latter and so enjoy some defensible con regime were indivisible and the death of the former would has S killinvasionopeningdesigned2003Iraq,to thesalvoes ofof indicted fugitive. were conducting an assassination or attempting an arrest of an playedbininLaden’s end. aboutthe tensions existing within that country than the role it complicity is about equally balanced and probably tells us more amongstthe tar raised the question that there might have been a conspiracyinquest into the killing of three I out official knowledge. public response? againstAmericanaction, verythepreparedor,least,someat known would there not have been a range of contingency plans addam Hussein on the legal basis that the individual and the It is easyItis to romanticise special forces anyas nation’s finest T ee a be sm dbt aot hte the whether about debate some been has here M ark O E wen’sbookcertainly naturaldoes.A correction to S uropean A S R T team involvedteam putativethekillto bombers, hetorical certainty for and against his seems to ignore the precedent set by the E C qually, if the ut f Human of ourt T he choicehe between complicity and B urke, the R A terrorists in 1988 in Gibral P akistani authorities had P Guardian akistani debate might R gt subsequentlyights ’s S outh Asia P akistani SE ALs T he 33 - - - -

operators, and occasionally some still serving, represent them- So what does this baleful precedent tell us? The period that selves and their institutions on the public stage. Secrecy, ano- followed from 1914 to 1991, Eric Hobsbawm’s short twentieth cen- nymity and self-deprecation should be the special forces’ stock tury, formed an unbroken block of historical continuity, dom- in trade but in a world that has to accommodate significant egos inated by the European continent, the twin abominations of it is unsurprising that some seek a wider audience. Almost invar- fascism and communism and great power politics. Two world iably this is wrapped up in a self-justifying alibi that “it’s for the wars were followed by framework concepts such as containment guys” or “if politicians can talk about it, so can I” and Owen and deterrence. Alliance systems that included NATO and the employs both. But he’s not alone, and a series of accounts have Warsaw Pact shaped the calculus of world affairs and marked a emerged over recent years, usually under pseudonyms, of which period of strategic formality in which tank armies and nuclear the pen name Dalton Fury is probably the most luridly evocative. submarines were the military units of account, rather than spe- In addition, favoured journalists are closely briefed and some cial forces patrols. At its back end, for Britain, it had the sub plot breathless accounts of operations more closely resemble acts of colonial disengagement but this was never more than a dis- of authorised biography than objective reporting, at least in the traction from the main theme. eyes of the grizzled denizens of the sergeants’ mess, the ultimate In 1989 we entered a period of strategic “broken play” from arbiter of regimental taste. which we are now emerging as the wars of 9/11 run down. The The effect is profoundly divisive and has led to accusations of existence of a Global War on Terror as a continuing condition headline seeking, money grabbing and, most importantly, com- tells how much of an aberration we have been through. Terrorism promise of operational techniques; in turn, men who have spent will not go away, the Middle East will see to that, but al Qaeda has their adult lives in military service have been denied access to been contained and is now an irritant rather than an existential regimental facilities or associations. In both Britain and Amer- threat, and, we have bigger fish to fry.T he economic challenge to ica considerable effort has been put into formalising the circum- the West, nuclear proliferation, cyber threats and the possibility stances in which accounts of this recondite world can discharge of currency, water or energy wars all point to the return of great their debt to the public record. But neither Hereford nor Fort power politics. Deterrence is in urgent need of a makeover if we Bragg is above the temptation of cashing in, nor perhaps to the are to have any chance of controlling nuclear use in the Middle influence of celebrity culture. East or South Asia, or the chaos of cyberspace, and other features of a wider international strategic framework will follow. n their evolution over seven decades, special forces have It may be that special forces are a less tight fit for the shown an ability to survive through adaptation. The SAS rehearsed military playbook this new era implies than the bro- was disbanded in 1945 but reformed again in 1950 to meet ken play from which we are emerging. the specific requirements of the Malayan Emergency. Meanwhile, special forces live in austere times. In Brit- IWiser to the ways of military officialdom, the Regiment, as the ain, they will have to win a share of a declining defence budget SAS is also known, immediately set about establishing its cre- against competition from a replacement nuclear deterrent, the dentials as a general purpose force, and its survival beyond the Queen Elizabeth class of aircraft carriers, cyber capabilities and Emergency is evidence of its success. Delta Force would pull the next generation of aircraft or armoured vehicles: the tools of off the same trick a generation later when, having been formed big power. They will also face the arithmetical challenge of draw- for the specific purpose of counter terrorism, it quickly became ing the same numbers from a smaller military population. capable of ubiquitous employment and an indispensable part of Whether they stay in the game as a minor player, become the national military inventory. an affordable but illusory substitute for the big battalions, dis- At their formation, the SAS and other units appealed to some- appear or become emasculated, as historical example might thing deep within the British martial soul but they did not win the suggest, remains to be seen. But we should never forget that sur- Battle of the Atlantic, form part of the bomber offensive or deliver vival, individual and institutional, is what they’re good at. a nuclear weapon. In general conflict, the place of special forces has been at the margins of the decisive engagements. But the speed, agility and opportunism with which they operate has found its time since 9/11. Today they occupy an historic high point in terms of both military utility and public profile; almost uniquely, they continue to be generously funded. Whether this position can survive the next strategic shift is the key issue for their future. There may be some clues to that future in the past, particularly in the early 20th century. Certainly the strategic “pivot” of the US to the Pacific basin, away from Europe, bears a striking resemblance to the concentration of the British fleet in northern waters after 1900. So too the bruising colonial engagements in the first and secondB oer wars, in illustrating the limits of imperial power, have a contemporary echo; Afghanistan and Iraq have provided the same salutary warning for America. Meanwhile, the febrile debate in London in 1912 on intimations of national decline looks remarkably like this election year in Washington. Above all, and as Henry Kissinger and others have observed, the key security issue for the 21st century is whether China wishes to reprise the role of Germany in the 20th. A reminder that starting from October 2012, all employers must enrol eligible workers into a qualifying workplace pension scheme. The date you have to do this by depends on the size of your company, but to give yourself time to prepare, visit The Pensions Regulator at www.tpr.gov.uk/actnow where you’ll ﬁnd out all you need to know. Workplace pensions. We’re all in.

DWPNProspectPg(275x210)Nov.indd 1 28/09/2012 10:21 36 prospect november 2012 Labour’s lost votes Millions of people turned away from Labour during its 13 years in power. There’s only one way it can win them back peter kellner

single, stark statistic ricocheted round Labour’s have returned to Labour. The party now needs to hold onto them, annual conference this autumn: that during the par- but the initial reconversion has already taken place. ty’s 13 years in power it lost five million votes. In the Nevertheless, the total number of remaining defectors stands Blair landslide of 1997, 13.5m people voted Labour. at three million. That’s still a large group; indeed, it’s ten per cent By 2010 the figure was down to 8.6m. of the 30m people who are likely to vote at the next election. If AThe challenge now is to win the defectors back. How can this Labour can win even half of them back, it will give the party a be done? Labour-supporting blogs offer different ideas. A new cushion against any revival of fortunes for the Conservatives and pressure group, “Five Million Votes,” was set up in July. A grow- Liberal Democrats. ing number of activists are joining the debate. All of them face the So, who are they? Demographically these defectors are simi- same problem. They have no firm evidence on which to base their lar to Labour loyalists. Their profile by age, gender, education plans. Has Labour lost votes by diluting its progressive ideals? Or and social class is much the same. However there is a real, if mod- has it not done enough to secure the centre ground from David est, difference in terms of housing and employment. As the chart Cameron’s assaults? Has the party suffered from too much New (p.38) shows, defectors are less likely than loyalists to live in social Labour thinking—or too little? Has the time come to bury the pol- housing, work in the public sector or belong to a trade union. itics of triangulation or to revive it? The argument rages, but the Some other analyses paint a different picture. They suggest data has been absent. a marked decline in Labour’s working-class support. This leads Until now. At YouGov, we have set out to fill the gaping empiri- many to argue that New Labour alienated many of the party’s core cal gap. In recent weeks we have been asking tens of thousands of supporters. our panel members how they voted in 1997. We have matched their They are wrong. The real reason for this decline is that Britain’s answers to their vote in 2010 and current party support, alongside economy and society have continued to evolve. Half a century ago, their attitudes to a range of political issues. This has allowed us to two-thirds of voters were working class. In 1997, they still outnum- provide the fullest analysis yet of Labour’s lost voters—who they bered middle-class electors by two million. Today, Britain has six are and what they really think. million more middle-class than working-class electors. Of course First, though, a word of warning. Memory and mortality the profile of Labour support has become more upmarket since impose limits on even the most rigorous inquiry. Not everyone 1997. That’s because Britain’s economic structure has changed, remembers accurately what they did 15 years ago, and not even not because a disproportionate number of the party’s historic core YouGov is able to poll the great suburbs in the sky. However, I’m voters have rebelled against the policies of the Blair/Brown years. confident that had we managed to keep tabs on every Labour voter The real differences between defectors and loyalists start to from 1997—who had lived and who had died; who had stayed loyal emerge when we compare the papers they read and where they and who had switched sides—the data would be similar, and the place themselves on the left-right scale. Loyalists divide fairly conclusions identical. evenly between right-wing and left-of-centre papers. Readers of Let’s start with the basic numbers. It is far too simple to say the Mirror or the Guardian account for 31 per cent of loyalists, that in 2010 there were 8.6m Labour loyalists and 4.9m defectors. while 29 per cent read the Mail, Sun, Star, Express or Telegraph. For one thing, around 3.5m people who voted Labour in 1997 had The reading habits of the three million defectors that Labour died 13 years later. Of the ten million Blair-voters who were still would like to win back are very different. For every Guardian or alive, 5.5m were loyalists and 4.5m defectors. Of that 4.5m, almost Mirror reader there are four who read a right-wing paper. half voted Liberal Democrat in 2010, while just over one in four As for ideology, 60 per cent of loyalists describe themselves as voted Conservative. A further 600,000 voted for a minor party— left-of-centre and only 23 per cent as centre or right-of-centre. Green, Nationalist, the UK Independence Party, Respect or the Among defectors, on the other hand, 36 per cent describe them- British Nationalist Party—while a similar number didn’t vote at selves as left and 48 per cent as centre or right. If we convert each all or, in a few cases, can’t remember. person’s answer into an index number, from minus 100 for very These numbers suggest that many defectors, though not a left-wing, via 0 for centre, to plus 100 for very right-wing, then the majority, opted for a left-of-centre alternative to Labour. How- average location of the loyalists is minus 35, while that of defec- ever, Labour has already won most of these back. This autumn, tors is minus six. the number of people who backed Labour 15 years ago but would These are big differences that cannot be wished away.T he pool vote Lib Dem today has slumped from two million to just 300,000. of left-wing defectors is just 400,000. They are outnumbered by The vast majority who defected to the Liberal Democrats in 2010 more than six-to-one by the 2.6m defectors who do not place themselves to the left.

Peter Kellner is president of YouGov, the pollster What, then, are the messages that chime with the majority of images getty © prospect november 2012 Labour’s lost votes 37 defectors? Redistribution won’t do it. Just 21 per cent want the gov- The same is true of attitudes to leadership. When asked which ernment to “do far more to help the poor,” while 27 per cent, would party “is led by people of real ability,” loyalists divide evenly prefer the opposite—cutting welfare payments “because the poor between Labour and “none” or “don’t know.” In contrast, only should take more responsibility for themselves.” Loyalists prefer three per cent of defectors say Labour. But, once again, few have redistribution to welfare cuts by two-to-one. been won over by David Cameron’s charm or Nick Clegg’s nation- There is one radical policy that most defectors support. A law before-party appeal. The overwhelming majority, 79 per cent, say limiting maximum pay to £1m a year is supported by 58 per cent. “none of them” or “don’t know.” But two right-wing policies are at least as popular: 59 per cent of So the people who are debating the “five million” issue may defectors want Britain to leave the EU, and a huge 78 per cent need to update their numbers, but they have identified a promis- want “net immigration reduced to zero”. ing target group. What are the practical lessons to be learned? The Equally, though, activists who reassure themselves that most obvious is that an explicit shift to the left would win Labour’s core supporters reject such views should think back only a small minority—and may well deter the vast again. As many as 41 per cent of loyalists also want Brit- majority of defectors. ain out of the EU, and two-thirds of them back zero Beyond that, two large truths emerge from net immigration. One of the key findings from this YouGov’s analysis. The first is that the political analysis is that Labour defectors generally hold more classes are far more divided than the electorate. right-wing views than many party activists like to The figures in our chart show some significant dif- think—but so do millions of Labour loyalists. ferences between Labour loyalists and defectors, Where the biggest differences show up are in atti- but also the fact that their attitudes to the Labour party itself. When asked which tudes overlap to a large degree. It party’s view of the “good soci- is only in their views on the polit- ety” most closely matches ical parties that they divide into their own, 79 per cent of loy- two completely different tribes. alists pick Labour. Among They are more like supporters defectors the figure tumbles of rival football teams than to 14 per cent. One defector inhabitants of warring in three chooses the Con- nations. They sport servatives or Lib Dems, but different colours more than half say “none with great passion, of them” or “don’t know.” but they live in simi- This suggests that only lar homes, have simi- a minority of defectors’ lar jobs, watch similar votes are locked up by TV shows and drive Labour’s opponents. A similar cars. fair number are open to This is true even persuasion. if we extend the analysis to include A builder reads the Sun Tory loyalists. on 30th September Their attitudes 2009, when the to economic newspaper dropped its support for the Labour party after 12 years 38 labour’s lost votes prospect november 2012

Where Labour’s 1997 vote Deserters versus Labour loyalists Deserters Labour loyalists went in the 2010 election, Percentage who… millions read the Mail, read the Mirror, live in social belong to a work in the Think the government should Loyal to Switched to Telegraph, Sun, Guardian housing trade union public sector do far more pay less, so the Labour Conservative Star, Express 45 to help the poor take more Died 5.5 poor responsibility 48 37 33 for themselves 29 31 27 20 21 17 27 16 Total 11 12 13.5m 3.5 1.3

2.0 0.6 want want net want a legal Think “the kind of society the party wants is broadly the kind Britain immigration maximum 0.6 of society I want” applies most to to leave reduced to for pay of Non- Labour Conservatives Liberal Dems none of them voting the EU zero £1m per year or don't know Switched 78 67 66 79 Switched to Liberal 59 58 to other Democrat 52 41 Where Labour’s 1997 vote would go now, millions 22 14 12 15 Loyal to Switched to Labour Conservative 3 3 Died 6.4 Regard themselves as Think “the party is led by people of real ability” applies most to very/fairly slightly centre/right- Labour Conservatives Liberal Dems none of them/ Total left-wing left-of centre of-centre 13.5m don't know 4.1 79 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.3 48 48 49

30 30 Non-voting or 24 23 don’t know Switched 12 15 Switched to Liberal 3 to other Democrat 2 3 1 and social issues are modestly—and only modestly—different voters liked Labour in 1997 and had been turned off by 2010. from those of Labour loyalists. Now that the 20th-century contest To reassemble an election-winning coalition of voters next between the rival ideologies of capitalism and socialism is over, time, these are the people Labour must win back. This means British politics has become largely consensual. On any given issue, rejecting the language of ideology, class and social division, and individual voters will hold widely different views; but overall, the reviving the appeal of national purpose. If that is a bitter pill for range of opinions held by Labour, Tory and Lib Dem voters is far some party activists to swallow, it comes with a coating of sugar: more similar than the parties, and their media cheerleaders, gen- done successfully, the politics of national purpose stand a chance erally acknowledge. of reaching beyond the ranks of the post-1997 defectors, and win- The second large truth is that, in as far as Labour loyalists and ning over at least some people who did not vote Labour even in defectors do differ, it is defectors who look more normal.T hat is, 1997—not to mention a large slice of those who weren’t old enough whether you compare them by housing tenure, newspaper reader- to vote at all when Blair first led his party to victory. ship, trade union membership, ideology or attitudes to particular However, that does not mean doing everything the same way issues, defectors more closely represent the electorate as a whole. as Tony Blair. One of his most successful techniques was trian- Labour strategists must resist the temptation to think of defectors gulation. He set out what was wrong with both state socialism as curious folk, not like the rest of us. Rather, it is Labour loyalists and laissez-faire capitalism, and promised that his government who comprise the more aberrant group. would avoid the errors of both. Those who say Ed Miliband should Labour’s real challenge is to reassemble the Blairite coa- eschew the politics of triangulation are right, but not always for lition that swept the party to power in 1997. That coalition the right reason. included people from across Britain’s economic and social What they often mean, but do not always say, is that they want spectrum. The party reached parts of the electorate that had to revive politics as a great struggle between left and right, with seemed out of bounds. To take just one example, Hertford- Labour standing firmly on the left. From YouGov’s data, it is clear shire was a Labour-free zone before 1997. That year the party this would be fatal. Nevertheless, some tactics that made sense won five of the county’s eleven seats. By 2010 it had lost all of in the 1990s may no longer work. This is because the world has them. Similar stories can be told about other parts of south- moved on. Back then, memories were fresh of the two compet- ern England. YouGov’s data explains England’s evolving polit- ing ideologies. One was represented by Margaret Thatcher’s pro- ical geography: a large number of normal, moderate, not very gramme of lower taxes, privatisation and weaker trade unions; political, Sun and Mail-reading, middle income, non-union the other by the supporters of Tony Benn, Arthur Scargill and EXCLUSIVE % 20 OFF for Prospect readers Simply quote ‘Prospect’ instore to redeem austinreed.co.uk

Like us on Follow us on

T&Cs: Offer applies to full price Austin Reed branded merchandise. Cannot be used to purchase gift vouchers or Q Club membership. Offer not valid in conjunction with any other offer or promotion. Not valid online or in outlet stores. Offer ends Sunday 25th November 2012.

AR_0377_1012 Prospect ad magazine FINAL.indd 1 8/10/12 10:53:12 40 labour’s lost votes prospect november 2012 a variety of left-wing groups that wanted to bring capitalism to its Iraq is deemed to be an indelible stain on his record. knees. This does not mean that Labour should abandon its quest for a The real reason for abandoning triangulation is that the twin fairer society. During the Blair/Brown years, YouGov repeatedly demons it set out to squash have lost their sting. True, there are found that the minimum wage was its most popular achievement, still people who think markets should never be contained or, alter- with winter fuel allowance and more generous state pensions not natively, should never be allowed. But these days they inhabit far behind. Their popularity was rooted in support from mil- the small, outer islands of Britain’s political archipelago. On the lions of people who didn’t personally gain from them. They were mainland, where the great majority live, the debate is about how emblems of the kind of society most of us wanted to live in. to make both markets and the state work better. Ed Miliband is therefore right to rebrand his party as “one It’s not just the ideological divide that has melted away. So, to nation Labour.” However, rebranding cannot produce last- a large extent, has the cultural divide that used to separate working results through a label alone, however often it is repeated. ing-class from middle-class voters. The range of shared experi- “New Labour” produced electoral dividends not because of the ences is far greater than it was in the heyday of class voting. Apart name but because it reflected a real change in the party’s direc- from some of the very richest and the very poorest, we enjoy or tion. What matters now is how Miliband follows through. Every endure in much the same way a wide range of institutions, such Labour policy between now and 2015 must pass the “one nation” as supermarkets, the NHS, internet service providers, the BBC, test. Any whiff of the politics of social contest—pitching “our” high street banks, state schools and mobile phones. Class-specific people against “their” people—would do immense harm. institutions, such as working-men’s clubs, industrial trade union That is not all. Given the role the unions played in his elec- branches and council homes are far rarer than they were. tion as party leader, Miliband still has much to do. He must con- Of course individual lives vary widely; but compared with the vince voters that he would be his own man, and also tough and 1940s or 50s, we look for much the same things from those who competent enough to keep his promises, if he did become prime are supposed to serve our needs, whether in the private or public minister. sector. This was the crucial insight that Blair offered in the 1990s, Meanwhile, YouGov’s data suggests that those who would when his ambition for New Labour was to be “the political arm abandon this strategy, “return to Labour’s roots” and pull the of the British people.” He was right; and his insight is no less rel- party to the left are not simply on the wrong side.T hey are fight- evant today, even if triangulation is no longer the best tactic and ing the wrong battle.

Try it now... The App

Applestore Android Store Read Prospect anywhere, anytime If you already subscribe to Prospect magazine you can currently enjoy the latest issues in the app absolutely FREE. To extend your subscription to the app go to www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/apps If you don’t yet subscribe to Prospect you can buy single issues, a subscription or back issues. To download the app visit the Appstore or Android Store and search for “Prospect Magazine.” TAILOR-MADE TRAVEL Luxury leather goods and accessories hand crafted in the United Kingdom

Canvas and Leather Bags for the Elegant Traveller www.ettinger.co.uk Tel: +44 (0)20 8877 1616

Ettinger Map Ad Prospect 275x210.indd 1 8/10/12 3:55 PM 42 prospect november 2012 © MySwitzerland.co m © The curious case of the Sherlock pilgrims Why have Sherlock Holmes fans gathered in Switzerland to recreate their hero’s final hours? edward docx

have just arrived. I am standing in the square in the small century mountain guide sits on a sedan chair with his accordion; Swiss valley town of Meiringen. On all sides, fir trees and from time to time and for no reason, he pops on a false beard, high alpine meadows give way to cragged grey faces of then pops it off again, the elastic cutting into his cheeks. A sly, rock that are veined in ice. Here and there louring clouds fastidious man is half-introduced. His name is Snork, he says, or snag the serrated peaks. Stark or Hark or Bark or Snark—it’s impossible to hear him until I“What’s going on?” I ask the Swiss woman next to me. the music stops; at which moment, I catch only the end of his sen- “I think they’re starting,” she replies, confidentially. tence “… and so this is where they invented meringue.’” “Starting what?” “My name is Peter Steiler,” shouts an elderly Swiss man in a But now a brass band embarks upon some deafening moun- lemon-coloured bowler hat. “I am a very intelligent man.’” tain lament and nothing further can be heard. General laughter across the square. Mocking? Indulgent? It’s I fall back upon my powers of observation and deduction. A hard to be sure —though I feel I must join in. A man rises. He is rotund cardinal comports himself across the cobbles in full scar- the mayor. Another man rises. He is also the mayor. Out of the let regalia to converse with a man who appears to be some kind corner of my eye, I notice a number of underpowered mopeds of itinerant manure shoveller. A chubby boy in the guise of a 19th coming very slowly towards us, the riders kitted out like Hell’s Angels—handlebar moustaches, goggles. Oddly sinister, they Edward Docx is an associate editor of Prospect skirt the square. prospect november 2012 the curious case of the sherlock pilgrims 43

To be a pilgrim: each dressed as a particular character from Sherlock Holmes, fans assemble for a portrait

that, in fact, the problem was not final. Great. But who are “the pilgrims”? Well, the pilgrims comprise some 70 or so persons from around the world who have chosen to journey to Meiringen, situated just beneath the falls, in order to witness this re-enactment. I use the word “pilgrims” because that is how they bill themselves; and, be in no doubt, this is a pilgrimage, this is fer- vour, this is religious, this is beautiful, unintelligible, and insane. For one thing, throughout the “event,” the pilgrims are all dressed as characters—major and minor—from the Holmes stories. Most of the costumes are elaborate, painstaking, and (I’ve no doubt) accurate. Thus, whenever I go anywhere, I go with characters like Peter Steiler (“a very intelligent man”); Fitzroy Simpson (“honest as the day is long”); Arthur H Staunton (a “rising young forger”); Mr Sandeford (“of Reading”); Sir Henry Baskerville, Mrs Hudson, Moriarty, Baron Adelbert Gruner, et cetera et cetera. Somewhere behind the scenes, I’m told, there lurks a logistical mastermind of international reach and authority who ensures that no two people represent the same character. All the same, several of the pilgrims like to change costumes—some of them several times; some of them several times a day. For another thing, the pilgrims speak—or attempt to speak— in the cadences of Victorian English: “Ah, sir, I deduce you must be a gentleman of the press.” It’s not that impressive a deduction, mind you, since the only other people in Meiringen are the baffledS wiss citizenry. Unless, of course, you count the 770 mys- terious moped riders with false moustaches that ceaselessly lap the town, neither speeding up, nor slowing down. “There are two mayors,” whispers the Swiss woman. “They are here to greet...”—she inhales slowly—“…the pilgrims.” inner at The Englischer Hof, the belle époque hotel in “Two mayors.” I nod. “What are the mopeds doing?” Meiringen (now actually called the Parkhotel du Sau- “The slow race,” she says. vage) at which Holmes and Watson stayed the night Another man at the front is speaking. He looks like Sherlock before that fateful encounter at the falls. It is day two. Holmes. He says: “Special thanks go to His Majesty the King of DI find myself speaking to a man styling himself as a HinduS erv- Bohemia for covering the steam train.” Murmurs of approval, ant. Except that he isn’t—he’s Edwin van der Flaes. He is Cana- especially from a woman who looks much like Queen Victoria. dian. He says he should be wearing his turban. Then he tells me With more stridency, the first man cuts in again: “My name that, “in real life there’s no such thing as a Hindu servant—but is Peter Steiler. I am a very intelligent man.” that’s the way it is.” What exactly he means by “real life” is pro- Snork sniggers. The fat boy pings his beard. A sinister look- foundly unclear. ing man in white tie taps a black cane. I can deduce nothing. I ask whether he might be the chairman of the Canadian The thought occurs that I should escape now, perhaps, lie low Sherlock Holmes society. But—as we strain to understand one in Zurich for a while, reckon out a new purpose in life. But the another—the pilgrims grow more restless and we find that we last train has gone and dusk is drifting down the mountains. A are continually interrupted by men and women standing up to fat moped rider catches my eye and bounces slowly up and down deliver random cries of the following nature and tone. on his seat as if to show me how he likes to make love. Shouting: “My name is Peter Steiler. I am a very intelligent “Shall we mingle?” Snork breathes. man!” Rousing: “Colonel Carruthers, are you with me?” hat am I doing? It’s a good question. Ostensi- Stage Whisper: “The man Holmes has been a serious incon- bly, I am attending what might be described— venience to me.” in the very loosest terms—as a re-enactment of (Here, I might ask another question and Edwin might start “The Final Problem” organised by The Sherlock to reply.) WHolmes Society of London. As you may or may not recall, “The Declamatory: “The assassination of my lodger cannot come Final Problem” is the Holmes story, first published inThe Strand soon enough!” Magazine in December 1893, in which Sir Arthur Conan Doyle Urgent: “Miss Violet Smith may like to lead the singing.” attempted to kill off his hero following a death struggle with (Here I might catch Edwin saying something like “1978.”) his great enemy, Moriarty, at the precipitous Reichenbach falls. Vindictive: “My name is Peter Steiler. I am a very intelligent You may also recall that Conan Doyle later revived Holmes and man!” 44 the curious case of the sherlock pilgrims prospect november 2012

Vindicated: “Ha, my father’s duster is up for auction with a go faster or go slower. I’m due at the Reichenbach Falls. The reserve of twenty guineas!” mountains rise in clear skies; it’s a fine day for the death of Vinegary: “For a small consideration, you may have the pho- Holmes. Except, of course, not actually Holmes and not actu- tograph, sir.” ally his death. I like Edwin a great deal. But we get no further because we I step into the road and part the mopeds. are suddenly overwhelmed by a passing tide of buffet-bound The falls themselves are impressive. The sun flashes in the pilgrims seeking the infamous Zurcher Geschnetzeltes—some water roaring down from above and a fine mist hangs in the kind of schnitzel, I surmise, though impenetrably disguised in alpine air. I catch myself thinking how refreshing and invig- cream. orating it must be—at long last—to confront one’s final prob- When I re-emerge, I am next to a tall man who tells me his lem in the shape of a single killable person. On the narrow and name is Olaf Maurer. He twinkles. Actually, he says, his name precarious path, the female head of the Japan Sherlock Hol- is Baron Von Herling. Again: I am not clear as to which is real, mes Club is standing beside the president of the French-speak- which fantasy. He is president ing Swiss Sherlock society. A of the German Sherlock Hol- woman tells me that her father mes Society. He was pleased to “is being supplied with monkey meet Queen Victoria, he says. glands from Prague.” There is I’m struck by a paradox, which some debate as to whether the I dare not share: that he looks to “services for gentlemen” pro- me the most like Sherlock Hol- vided by a certain Kitty Win- mes of anyone here. ter may or may not have been I ask him if we are indeed enjoyed by The Illustrious Cli- eating schnitzel. ent (really the Prince of Wales, But again, I get no clear reply but not really). because now people are starting I’ve been riding the funic- to sing. It is a song I recognise ular with Colonel Moran— and don’t recognise. Von Her- some kind of “lottery shipper” ling shouts through the confu- from nearby Lausanne (really, sion and the uproar: it’s called really). Amidst all the eccen- “Moriarty’s Lament.” The tune, tricity, he stands out as one of though, is “My Bonnie Lies Over the most devotedly out to lunch. the Ocean.” He seems to be trying to escape “My body lies under the water from himself—more obviously, Immersed at the foot of the Fall or more explicitly, than the oth- If only I’d done what I oughter…” ers. Why has he come on this pil- The night thickens, con- grimage? “For two weeks,” he sumes, closes in. Cardinal Tosca says, “I was stuck at my desk. is pressing his card upon me—it Then I began to smoke—one gives his home address as “Pal- pipe per story—until I could azzo Morti.” Emilia Lucca—or feel no longer Swiss but Scottish Marina Stajic, from New York— like Conan Doyle.” He smokes a is “in real life” a pathologist: “I (real) pipe as he talks. He wears prefer to talk poison,” she says. the (real) kilt of the Black Watch Moriarty is on the move, his face and has a (real) beard such as as pale and malevolent as the might be seen in a Grimm’s fairy schnitzel sauce. With gather- tale. Colonel Moran, in the sto- ing alarm, I realise that the pil- ries, works for Moriarty. But, in grims have an entire songbook. “real life,” now that he’s here, “Down Goes Moriarty” (to Moran is sick of it: “Moriarty, he the tune of “Donald, Where’s A 1993 stamp for the centenary of Sherlock Holmes’s “death” never pays me, he just says ‘kill, Your Trousers?”), “Moriarty’s kill, kill.’ I say these are not my Dream” (“Waiting at the Church”), “My Name is Peter Steiler” problems. Ach… what is the real problem?” (“McNamara’s Band”). Wildly, I flee theS auvage. “You mean what is the final problem?” I offer. He nods slowly. “Yes, the final problem… what is it really he final day of our pilgrimage begins with the bewil- about?” dering sound of beeping and buzzing beneath my I contemplate both this question and the scene before me. narrow window. I’m late. But, once outside, I can I have come to like the pilgrims a good deal. They’re warm- find no way to cross the swarm of mopeds in order to hearted, engaging and amusing people, which is more than Tcatch the train that will take me the single stop back to Meir- can be said for the moped brethren. There are many from the ingen. They throng the road, two and three abreast, doing a legal profession—Moriarty is a practising barrister; Cardinal stolid 20 miles an hour while their riders squint and grimace Tosca and Queen Victoria (who are married) are retired from in a mockery of speed and excess. Still, they refuse to stop, the bar. Sherlock Holmes, I learn, is an ex-head teacher—and 2012 autuMn

Quarterly Magazine • issue no.2 • Caution in a crisis rodney Hobson long-term arguments i fund for owningC minesourcES elena Clari ES The high SciPion mining and r don’t get caught out by currencies price of hardy john Saxo Bank safety Corporate bonds: jonathan ruffer edging out equities? ndy davis a cT ProSPE

Published by

in partnership with London Stock Exchange

London Stock Exchange, in Featuring articles from leading partnership with Prospect, have fi nancial commentators on the collaborated to bring you Private latest developments, trends and Investor – the new e-magazine challenges, Private Investor is delivering insight into fi nancial essential reading for those who markets. need information on fi nancial markets and trading.

Published by Private Investor is a free publication. To view the latest issue visit: In partnership with www.londonstockexchange.com/magazine London Stock Exchange © MySwitzerland.com of deathlike, too. lifelike,of yetoppositesomehowoppositethetheand ropes, on hangingstop,then and fallsthe into plunge dummies tic huh i imclt ad vl n intent. and evil and immaculate is though, course, that it happens in the story.) to. oms em vgey eiae n weary. and delicate vaguely seems Holmes ation. transubstanti or say, circumcision than, suppose, I insane, back.) Holmes bring to allowshim what is story the of ically,constructionweak the got away with such poor dramaturgy today; though, paradox what has happened afterwards. ( narrator, having returned to the hotel, can only the piece witnessed: never Watson, togetheris struggle final the course, of eras. and Holmes grapple in slow motion for the hundreds of cam ill. ( ill. lischer a messenger arrivemessengeraWatson Doctor ask and toback able with a very elastic sense of reality… As am I, as am I. in common, beyond the obvious, it is that they are all comfort ence save that of their character. If these people have anything ans, and many who—nobly—refuse to admit to any other exist also policemen, toxicologists, bookmakers, engineers, histori saved him in his struggle with this being some kind of martial art that Holmes knew and that speak (founded about 1000in 1977; members), who do not, I think, ladies from the aforementioned Japan havewhothosefolk are thetwo the furthest—not least come o Lods f London. of Lloyd’s for s dsocrigy mrid to married (disconcertingly) is Left, Sherlock in a pensive mood. Right, cameras in hand, the pilgrims bid farewell to Cardinal Tosca at Lake Brienz 46 And so we make a happy throng as we stand and listen to listen and westand happythrong as wemakea so And T T his “really happens,” someone assures me; meaning,me;“really assures hisof happens,”someone Hof to treat a woman who has suddenly been taken been suddenly has who woman a treat to Hof E here are no lines for the characters to deliver—because, nglish and who are posing as “ as posing are who and nglish T T e tags ad ot impressive most and strangest he he whole thing is insane—but less less insane—but is thing whole he M oriarty on the falls. M C onan Doyle would not have s usn Wto works Watson Hudson. rs T hen we watch S B herlock Holmes the curious case of the sherlock pilgrims sherlock the of case curious the aritsu Assistants”— aritsu T o unrealis wo T M T M here are he oriarty, oriarty C E lub ng ------W that when Watson reveals Holmes’s superpowers,draw inference. they A large turn part outof the thrill of readingbeyond the storiesthose is of any human being who can think and observe and foundly it strikes you. and the new “estate sanctioned” book. man.Unlike isa superhero, but—and here’s the rub—that he is not superhu uniquelymes appealing preciselyis that(like thoseothers) he ment that is impossible not to admire, respect and analyse. tive. peopleleft on enteredextent.thepopularsuchanmindto achievementwriter.a as Few, any,if made-up characters have asthis and not be affected by the sheer scale of man, knownfictional planet—upcreation the on there with ble way of testing it, but my guess is that he is the most widely in the R S tivetoday everas was.itIndeed, we arenow thein midsta of course,of hisappealdirect as fulsomeisand as lucra andas haveAnd,playedactorsrole. sincethe of1900.Hundreds in silent movie, 30-second a be to thought is outing first His distance. some entinstances, Holmes surpasses hisnearest rival, Hamlet, by herlockian renaissance (not that he ever went away): the Guy itchie movies; the curiously apposite

T T he view that I come to is this:whatmakesis tocome view thatI he O e oe o cnie te hnmnn te oe pro more the phenomenon, the consider you more he B BBC n these grounds alone, this is a fiction-writingthesegroundsaalone, n thisis achieve atman, adaptation; S Sherlock Holmes Baffled uperman,Holmes’s powers of “detection” are not acter on screen of all time. With over 250 differ Holmes is the most often depicted fictionalthat char isdiscover later I revealingfact hat is this really about? E B arthwho do not know something of the detec ond and the gang. C ertainly, you cannot come on a trip such Elementary, S , which appeared in the U urely, there can be very few a new series from the U prospect november 2012 november prospect P B erhaps the single most enedict T here’sreliano C C S onanDoyle’s herlockHol umberbatch S herlock S uper S S ------; PT Prospect Ad 7AW_1 11/09/2012 11:00 Page 1

Mandela’s Dream - A Political Tour - Jan 20-27, 2013 Almost two decades on from the end of apartheid, South Africa remains a success story. It is a multi-racial democracy and a regional power. But after 18 years in office, the party that fought so hard for change is failing to meet the needs of its supporters. Ordinary South Africans lack basic services, unemployment is high, and leading members of the ANC stand accused of corruption. This January, on an unprecedented tour, we examine where the “rainbow nation” is headed, and ask whether it can keep Mandela’s dream alive. Contact us at [email protected] or call 0843 289 2349

T: 0843 289 2349 www.politicaltours.com

A revolutionary concept for travellers passionate about politics and current affairs

Photo © Thys Dullart 48 the curious case of the sherlock pilgrims prospect november 2012 to not be superpowers at all. If only we had studied his methods. tion... But all that’s for another essay. From a psychological point of view, therefore, Sherlock is the per- A fourth thought before we leave the Reichenbach falls. I sus- fect embodiment of two of our deepest and most contradictory pect that Holmes’s enduring popularity is also something to do needs: the need for a transcendent and universally redemptive with London—or, rather, nostalgia for a vanished London. His hero, and the need for the truth to be available to everyone. world lives in the global imagination as the favourite fantasy of our My second thought is a development of the well-rehearsed capital city: the cobbles, the gaslights, the fog and horse-drawn and more general reasons for the popularity of crime as a genre. cabs. Interestingly (as Moriarty and Mycroft Holmes,S herlock’s Like all superheroes and detectives, Holmes plays directly brother, later point out to me) this nostalgia was not born much to our abiding human anxieties—reassuring us, righting wrongs. later (in the 1960s, say, as I had imagined) but at the very time He overcomes violence. He restores order. He makes the foreign that Conan Doyle was writing. Because, between at the end of familiar. He confronts our primal fears—that demon-hound 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, London changed dra- baying out there in the darkness—and he tames them. But I’d go matically—roads were smoothed, motorisation began, horses were a little further and say that he, in particular, is an extra-special on their way out and electricity was widely replacing gas. Holmes’s creation because he was conceived on the very cusp of moder- London was vanishing even as Conan Doyle wrote. nity: unlike his legion impersonators, Holmes was the first to represent the new age of science and science’s ability to explain t’s time to say goodbye. I follow the pilgrims back down the the inexplicable. funicular where we are to prepare for a full outdoor funeral I would add to these two ideas a third, perhaps more writ- service for Holmes—dead but not dead—accompanied by the erly, observation: that—instinctively or otherwise—Conan Doyle band and the chubby boy with a beard—though not really. bequeathed us a character that appeals so powerfully because he IWe are to be led by some kind of Victorian reverend, except is both a universal everyman and a strikingly particular individual. not. In fact, the parson is Moriarty dressed in a new costume; Consider: Holmes is not of the ruling class, the lower class or though, of course, he’s not really Moriarty, or a parson, or the middle class. He is an insider, but also an outsider. We know Victorian. nothing of his education, next to nothing of his childhood, very Meanwhile, I solve the Mystery of the Menacing Mopeds not little of his views or experiences or feelings concerning the dozen by a thrilling series of deductions, but by asking the train oper- or so ordinarily staple subjects by which a writer creates char- ator straight out. It turns out that the 770 moped riders are in acter. Holmes isn’t of any profession save the one that he has Meiringen at the same time as the pilgrims to take part—oh, founded. He is not an employee of business, or of the state, and the incongruity—in a 132km mountain pass race sponsored by frequently disdains the laws and precepts of both. He forms no Red Bull, the energy drink. The winner will be the rider with attachments but he interacts with the same equanimity whether the time closest to the average of all the participants—hence he is with urchins or kings. Though he concerns himself with their unwillingness either to speed up or slow down. crime, he does not concern himself with the causes of crime. (In I focus my attention on the funeral service. Peter Steiler is this sense, he is both radical and conservative.) Sure, he will get once again loudly insisting upon his intelligence. Effie Mun- you your man every time—and in fine style—but he’s never going roe and Percy “Tadpole” Phelps are coming my way. The band to suggest a change to sentencing laws, the reform of the prison strikes up some new lament. system, or a new model for society. Though supremely egotisti- What is going on in Meiringen, I now realise, is that by cal, Conan Doyle is careful to make clear that Holmes’s ego serves dressing up and performing strange rituals on mountainsides, only his work. (Holmes even quotes Flaubert: “L’homme c’est rien— some human beings are expressing their need for an everyman l’oeuvre c’est tout.” (“The man is nothing, the work everything.”) redeemer, who is nonetheless convincingly particular, while He is asexual, remote, aloof, analytical but enduringly lovable— other human beings are enjoying an absurdly pointless race in the loyalty and regard of Watson is our witness to this and as “support” of a “brand” whose “values” cannot in any real sense important in the creation of the fiction as Holmes himself. be said to exist except in the minds of its marketing managers. Conversely, think of the particulars. The hat, the cape, the What is going on in Meiringen is what is always going on: in var- phrase-making (“elementary,” “when you have eliminated the iously mad ways, we’re busy being human. impossible…” “the game is afoot”), the pipe, the slipper, the cocaine, the violin, the code-breaking, the chemistry, the mon- ographs on tobacco ash, the fog, 221b Baker Street (you have to love the ever-so-particular authorial touch of that “b”) and so on. Yes, these are the devices by which a writer might make his creations come alive in the mind of his readers. But what a clever, instantly and uniquely identifiable list it is. Even the very name does both jobs: what could be more arresting, particular and immediately recognisable than “Sher- lock?”; and what could be more universal, soothing and, well, “homey” than Holmes? Incidentally, if some of the above appears a little Freudian, then it now strikes me that the influence is in entirely the opposite direction; that Freud is a little Sherlockian. The great psy- choanalyst—with his cocaine, his consulting rooms, his “cases” of the “wolf man” and “rat man,” his belief that truth can be deduced from study and exercise of the mind, from observa- A GREAT WAY TO FIGHT POVERTY FROM CARE INTERNATIONAL UK AND THE CO-OPERATIVE TO CHANGE A LIFE DON’T GIVE

LEND’ How can you change Sophorn Rans life, without giving her anything? By lending her the funds she needs to start a sustainable business. Here’s how it works. Visit lendwithcare.org and choose an entrepreneur to support. Then, you can lend as little as £15, Invest inin Sophorn Sophorn Ran iRan C b d in Cambodia. and when their business grows, they’ll pay you back. Invest in an entrepreneur Give a gift that lasts like Sophorn Ran You’ll be able to follow your entrepreneur’s Sophorn Ran lives in Cambodia with her two progress as they build their business. When young sons. She wants to buy a boat, so she the loan is repaid, you can choose to keep can earn a living from ﬁshing. your money or re-invest it and help another entrepreneur work their way out of poverty. Giving a loan to an entrepreneur like Sophorn Ran is the best way to help the whole family Lendwithcare.org is a great new way of helping improve their future. They get 100% of the people living in poverty transform their lives. money you lend to invest in their business. It comes from CARE International UK, one of the Sophorn Ran plans to use her earnings world’s most respected development charities – to send her children to school. in association with The Co-operative.

Lend £15 today, and help change an entrepreneur’s life. Go to www.lendwithcare.org

CARE International, 89 Albert Embankment, London SE1 7TP Charity Number: 292506 50 prospect november 2012 Car crazy China adores cars. Can one man persuade a nation to rent, not buy? megan shank

t a bus stop near Beijing’s Dashanzi art district, shoppers swayed with bulging bags. Horns swelled. Trucks rumbled. Saturday. Six o’clock. Stuck. Beside me, my friend, Wang Shuyue, murmured in the lyrical Mandarin of the capital city: “The traf- Afic inB eijing is really over the top.” She kicked a pile of ashy fallen leaves. The days had grown short. We waited in the dark. Beijing, once the kingdom of bicycles, is being colonised by the car: there are now more than five million in the city. Traffic has become such a problem that in January 2011 the government enforced new licence plate restrictions to ease congestion. Now over a million Beijingers compete in a monthly lottery for the right to buy a new car. Just under 20,000 car registrations are up for grabs each time and unfortunate would-be buyers can end up waiting for over a year without seeing their number come up. Our bus arrived, and we packed in among fierce elderly women with razor-sharp elbows. “I really need a car,” said Wang as a squat woman in a padded jacket boxed her in. “On the weekends, I’m stuck on the bus like this. On the weekdays, I leave my apartment at seven in the morning, stuff myself into a crowded subway and arrive exhausted before I even start work.” A stray piece of hair escaped her ponytail. She was too wedged in to brush it off her face. “At least if I had a car I could have a little more space; a little more freedom.” It was these kinds of frustrations and desires—common to upwardly mobile young Chinese—that inspired Zhang Ruiping (or Ray Zhang, as he’s known abroad), entrepreneur and Shang- hai native, to found eHi Car Rental in 2006. Motivated by a potent mixture of business ambition and social and environmental concern, Zhang is aiming to turn eHi into the largest car rental company in China. “Chinese people have been underserved in terms of personal according to Zhang, but most are small local businesses. No car convenience and privacy, but they’re starting to value these rental company has yet won a dominant share of the market. things. We started eHi because we believe Chinese people can Between eHi’s founding in 2006 and my meeting with Zhang in have these things without owning a car,” Zhang told me in his 2010, the company had zoomed towards the front of the pack, Shanghai office. “It would be a catastrophe ifC hina continued to with more than 100 outlets nationwide serving over half a million follow the American model of car ownership. With eHi, you drive clients. In seeking to lead the industry Zhang has positioned him- when you really need to drive, not just because you own a car. We self as a central figure in the development of the Chinese rela- hope to deter many Chinese families from buying their second, tionship with the car. That means taking on car culture and the third, or—if we’re lucky enough—first car.” complex forces that have given rise to it. At the end of 2002, average vehicle ownership per hundred American politicians and businesses have long encouraged urban households was 0.9. By the end of 2011, it was 18.6. That’s China to embrace the US’s ideals. In the case of car ownership, few in comparison with over 70 per cent ownership among British they got what they thought they wanted—perhaps to the world’s households, but the flood of new private vehicles in Beijing and detriment. It is hard to imagine why China would follow the other Chinese cities is congesting roads and darkening skies. In American car-dependent formula, where suburban sprawl sucks June, the number of automobiles in China reached 114 million. the lifeblood out of once-vibrant cities and the government sub- There are at least 40,000 car rental companies in China, jects its national policies to the whims of oil-rich pariah regimes, Adapted from “King of the Road”, from “Chinese Characters: Profiles of but history has played a role in this trajectory. Fast-Changing Lives in a Fast-Changing Land,” edited by Angilee Shah and Early in the 20th century, Detroit pushed American auto- Jeffrey Wasserstrom (University of California Press) mobiles into China. American engineers and Chinese returnees C become the norm there. projects blossom. wayforcommercial development, large high-density suburban traditionalbuilt.nation,Aroundtheas housingurban makes C roads increase, in the past two decades thepublic numbertransport. Andof even vehiclesasmass-transit in options expand and lems,accidentsand have plaguedefforts create to sustainable works and high-speed trains, alleged corruption, technical prob for modern roads. However, in 1989from western nations led efforts to raze city walls to make room way of motorways, almost as many as the AmericanS Interstate High of motorway. At the end of 2010, prospect november 2012 november prospect henglin,announced that the country had almost 46,000 miles hinese live, socialise, and shop. During an autumn 2010 trip to hina has grown three times faster than road capacity. Access to a personal vehicle is transforming how middle-class O Although S nemajor reason for this is the way ystem. C hina’s major cities are building underground net S brs eur cr, o a ownership car has so requireuburbs cars, C hina’s minister of transport, Li C hina still had only 168 miles C hinesecities are being car crazy car - - - plex by foot. During my stay, I noticed only athe handful compound’s of people entrance leave gate thelike com F1 marshalsresidential with racingdrive flags. at 40 mph. tionsAdolescent outside theguards neighbourhood, wave themresidents through barrel cars around the and grab dinner before we headed back.” driveto work, pick my wife up somewhere along her way home, “ amenities in their neighbourhood within walking distance. Above, Shanghai’s overhead highways illuminated by LED lights pound,andXueGudecided vehicle,buy toa a lowtrees dance and grandmas coddle babies. centre. From their window, they can see a smallliving park where here wil because it is quieter, apartmentcleaner andin acheaper far-flung than thesuburb. city S T hanghai, I stayed with my friends Gu and Xue in their spacious he commute was aggravating. We bought a car so that I could Less than a year and a half after Gu halfboughtafteryear Gu thanaand Less ahis ie ot epe iig n h sbra apartment com suburban the in living people most Like T he young married couple enjoy O n their way to attrac B utthere are few B uick B uick,a E xcelle. 51 - - - -

cab driver crashed into it. His car was in the shop for nearly two of town, we were confronted with men driving mopeds through months. Going back to using cabs and public transportation, he thickets of fruit sellers carrying baskets on poles. Buses blazed said, was a personal hell. past neon billboards. The eHi offices were around the corner from St Ignatius cathedral in Xujiahui, one of Shanghai’s bus- n a warm day that autumn, Zhang sent a driver to iest commercial areas. The traffic lurched, as did my stom- pick me up from my friends’ apartment to take me to ach. I learned that opening a window was not the solution—the eHi headquarters. The chauffeur was in his late twen- exhaust fumes are a knockout punch for the car sick. ties, with a thin neck and a generous round head. He EHi’s offices buzzed with more than 400 employees rubbing Oliked working for eHi because there wasn’t the same pressure shoulders in front of monitors accessorised with stuffed ani- to make money by fare. “That’s why these guys drive so aggres- mals and clip-on electric fans. Zits and experimental hair col- sively,” he said, motioning to a cab driver. “Most of us drivers ours betrayed the staff’s youth—mid-twenties on average. “They don’t have any benling [skills]. That’s how we wind up doing sometimes call me uncle,” Zhang said. Although he treated his this,” he said. “But some gigs are better than others.” staff with affection and respect as we toured eHi, and told me Driving through Shanghai, one sees how the car has shaped the company offered employees stock options, Zhang admitted the city. The creation of its system of ring roads extended the one of the reasons his business model worked was because of low city’s vast boundaries and transformed the Huangpu river into labour costs. “I’m not really proud of this,” he said. Shanghai’s heart rather than its extremity. These developments Zhang wore a crisply tailored blue pinstripe shirt and grey trou- were part of a massive push to build China’s road infrastructure sers that revealed a trim waistline. When I pointed out he hadn’t that began in 1984. During the next three decades, developers acquired the typical Chinese middle-aged businessman’s girth, connected poor inland provinces to the wealthy coast and laced he grinned and said he assigned dinner and drinking duties to a modern cities with highways—forcing countless families from friend. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of modern Chinese busi- their homes in the process. Construction of a single two-mile ness culture, he said. “There are so many big failures in China, and section of Shanghai’s inner ring road displaced 12,000 people, it usually has to do with being too aggressive, focusing too much according to Thomas J Campanella’s The Concrete Dragon: Chi- on short-term results. Many businessmen can’t contain their egos. na’s Urban Revolution and What it Means for the They’re afraid the competition will take the lead. I’m not in this for World. In some cases, city officials could the quick flip. I want to build a sustainable business.” have spared much expense and heartbreak Zhang’s rhetoric sometimes sounded scripted, but his ideas by choosing tunnels rather than bridges, were admirable, and he seemed passionate about his beliefs. He but tunnels didn’t make the same state- often talked himself into a frenzy. C“ hina doesn’t need another ment. A bridge to the future was sexier than web-game company addicting teenagers, another rice wine or a tunnel to the future. tobacco company, or another real estate tycoon with an associated Arriving in the centre official in jail on bribery charges.C hina needs a different value system,” he said, leaning forward King of the road: on a black couch. Even from his office on the Ray Zhang, 23rd floor, car horns could be heard sound- owner of eHi ing non-stop. Zhang’s journey to his current position began in 1985, after he grad- uated from Fudan University, one of China’s most pres- tigious higher education institutions. He travelled to the US to study computer science at California State University, Sacramento. There, Zhang bought his first car—a usedT oy- ota Corolla—for $800. He learned how to drive a manual car in an empty parking lot at night. Later, Zhang worked with a business partner to set up Aleph, a logistics software company which provided car service companies with online systems and com-

munications technology. brown i ng jonathan © prospect november 2012 car crazy 53

At its height, Zhang says Aleph owned a decent share of the What’s more, the social impact of car ownership may not be all US market for technological solutions for ground transporta- bad. Car ownership is also giving young Chinese a new outlet for tion services. creativity and adventure and, in a nation of only children, where But then the America that Zhang had known for 15 years dissi- religious, civic, and political affiliation opportunities remain lim- pated. The dotcom bubble burst, and 9/11 dampened the nation’s ited, it provides a ready-made tribe of like-minded friends. spirit. Zhang turned his attention back to China. While he’d been In the eastern city of Nanjing I met Xue Peng, an e-commerce away, his home country had liberalised its economy and fattened entrepreneur in his mid-30s, who wanted to show me how other its pockets. In 2002, Zhang returned to scout business opportu- young people enjoy their cars. As we zoomed toward the western nities for Aleph but there weren’t enough opportunities. “At that part of the city in his Mitsubishi Lancer EX, his speakers pumped time I asked myself a question, one that seemed quite natural: electropop by American singer Ke$ha. Soon we arrived at a wide what could I do for my own country?” He returned to Shanghai to road split by an island. “The racing happens here,” he said. study for a master’s degree in business and mapped out his plan Across the country, racers and fans organise online and meet in to launch eHi. the middle of the night in suburbs like this one. Sometimes racing Zhang’s timing could not have been better. In recent years, involves gambling, but mostly it is just a way to let off steam and young Chinese not yet able to afford their own cars have embraced test the limits of new toys. For spectators, it is raw performance— rental. My visit to eHi came a couple of months after the end of a very different from the choreographed shows on television. particularly snarled summer in China. A traffic jam betweenB ei- “Racing became cool with movies like The Fast and the Furi- jing and Inner Mongolia that was over 60 miles long made world ous series and video games,” said Xue Peng. “Many drivers modify headlines for ten days. Beijing has attempted to curb clogged their cars to go faster, switching out engines and stuff. I don’t race, roads and smoggy skies with a series of driving restrictions, but if but I installed an air-charger so my car would purr louder and I’d Chinese consumers insist on emulating US car ownership rates, have more control. It makes other cars respect mine—that’s a big China is on track to accumulate more than a billion cars, said part of driving in China.” Zhang. It’s a number that keeps him up at night. Another video of blood-pumping car exhibitionism emerged in “Look at our cities now! A mess! Shanghai, Beijing… How 2010. In it, eight women members of a car club in Wuhan wear- many Shanghais and Beijings are we going to have in China? This ing different coloured stockings performed an all-legs dance is going to be a disaster, not just for Chinese people, but for all through their sunroofs. The effect was akin to synchronised swim- mankind. We’re not going to see the sun again.” ming combined with (fairly tame) pole dancing. Some questioned It is not just the environment that has Zhang worried. “If our whether or not this wasn’t also another staged advertisement, civilisation is not moving forward, what will become of it?” he asks. but regional car clubs often organise outings or activities online. “Owning the biggest cars, buying ten Louis Vuitton bags in one Sometimes they even act like gangs. In 2007, on an expressway shot—it doesn’t fit with our country’s new economic status. It’s outside of Nanjing, a Hummer shouldered into a convoy of Mazda- ugly rich. Car sharing, resource sharing: in China this could be a driver club members. Afterwards, they took their revenge by sur- revolution. A cultural revolution!” rounding the Hummer on all four sides and forcing it to slow down Zhang’s revolution won’t be easy. Providing a good service, add- to 18mph for several minutes. ing hybrids—these are great benefits to potential eHi customers, To keep up with the car-owner clubs, eHi organises out-of-town but not as thrilling as showing off your newM ini Cooper. Uproot- rental packages to the countryside to eat crab or view ancient ing the aspirational object, replacing it with a new green culture: cities. “Of course, access to a car can make your life better and these are greater challenges. In China, car ownership announces broaden your horizons, but we maintain you don’t have to own a personal status. It represents security. In many cases, it has car to enjoy the benefits,” Zhang said. become an expected part of the marriage contract. When I asked Zhang whether eHi’s growth contradicts its envi- These ugly realities were on full display in 2009, when video ronmental goals—the more successful it becomes, the more cars it footage apparently filmed on a mobile phone was uploaded onto adds to the road—he tensed. “We should instead ask: without eHi the website Youku.com. In the video, a couple argues in a Buick how many more cars would be on the road? If our aim is to elimi- showroom as they stand alongside a lipstick-red car. nate automobiles, then we, along with automobile manufacturers, “This car doesn’t suit you,” says the man. “This car does suit shouldn’t even be in business.” me; it does suit me!” the woman screams. As 2012 draws to a close, things are looking good for eHi. In The woman jumps into the car, revs the engine and peels for- Beijing, however, eHi will not count Wang Shuyue among their ward as other shoppers scramble out of the way. “Stop the car! customers. Fed up with her cramped commute, two months Stop the car!” the man and the sales agent shout, running along- after I saw her she entered the number plate lottery. She won side and tapping the windows. She backs up the Buick and then on her first try. A couple of months later she bought her first drives it forward again. Then she repeats the process. Finally, the car, a Volkswagen. But her story might become the stuff of leg- man relents. “OK, OK, OK! Stop the car! I’ll buy it! I’ll buy it!” end. Not only is it becoming more difficult to get a registration That the video turned out to be a staged online ad for Buick in Beijing, other cities—Guiyang and Guangzhou—have since didn’t detract from its power. It rang true—sparking a nationwide introduced their own lotteries and auctions for new number conversation and attracting nearly seven million views. plates. In August a public outcry in the central-northwest city of EHi’s success does not require all Chinese to change their Xi’an forced officials to curb plans for licence plate restrictions thinking about car ownership, Zhang told me. Ten per cent of but the policy is almost certain to grow. That’s good news for car aspirational buyers is enough. Financially, this may be true, but for rental companies, as is the increased domestic travel and urban- eHi to make the broad social and environmental impact it claims isation in China that experts forecast for the next decade. For it is after, it needs to do better. Shaving ten per cent off millions Zhang, the road ahead for his company and vision is still long of new car owners still means a lot of new cars will hit the streets. and winding, but he’s firmly positioned in the driver’s seat. 54 prospect november 2012 A cry for real help Hospitals are wrong to treat suicide attempts as just a medical emergency anna blundy

uicides are startlingly common. Over 5000 are reported A formerly suicidal young woman describes her struggle to get in the UK every year, according to the Office forN ational the seriousness of her psychological condition recognised by hos- Statistics—more than double the number of people pital staff. After attempting to overdose on painkillers, she was killed in road traffic accidents. Governments across the found by her mother in the morning and taken to hospital where world rightly see prevention of suicidal behaviour as an she had her stomach pumped (now a relatively rare treatment). Simportant healthcare target. This autumn has seen World Suicide “I was in overnight but nobody thought I was much of a risk to Prevention Day, international conferences in both Israel and Nor- myself, so they sent me home,” says the young woman. “I carried way (contrary to popular belief Norway, Sweden and Denmark’s on self-harming but no longer wanted to die. Eventually I admit- suicide rates are low), the publication of the British government’s ted myself to a psychiatric ward voluntarily, self-harming or taking prevention strategy report and a study from the Samaritans on overdoses whenever they tried to get me to go home.” the demographics of suicide, which confounded common percep- In many medical settings “cry for help” suicide attempts are tions of who is most at risk. casually dismissed, though research by Dr Thomas Joiner at Flor- In Britain, suicide is dealt with as a medical emergency. This ida State University has shown that repeated suicide attempts means those who feel they are an immediate risk to themselves— reduce fear of death and increase the risk of eventually fatal sui- if they check into a hospital’s accident and emergency department cide. Suicide prevention organisations across the world believe (A&E)—will be treated swiftly and often effectively.B ut the aim is that too many people with suicidal feelings are misunderstood at short term: to stop the patient from committing suicide on that the point of contact with medical staff and discharged from care particular day. once death is averted. An on-call medical registrar at a busy London hospital explains “‘Our job is to assess the risk of the difficulties suicidal behaviour presents to an overstretched NHS. She sees one or two overdoses on every overnight shift and suicide, not to treat the acknowledges that staff quickly weary of the phenomenon. “They are usually young women who think that taking para- underlying causes,’ says a cetamol will mean they drift off to sleep and won’t wake up,” she medical registrar” says. “In fact, if you do die it’s of liver failure weeks later. I saw a girl whose liver had failed after an overdose and she was approved The problem is that the National Health Service (NHS) often for a transplant. After the operation she did it again and there fails to treat the mental health issues that lie behind the patient’s was nothing more we could do when the second liver failed.” The suicidal feelings. If the patient cannot easily describe the illness, patient died. practitioners and patients are paralysed; the focus will be on pre- “Our job, medically, is to assess the risk of suicide, not to treat venting the suicide attempt but may fail to result in long term the underlying causes,” says the registrar. “The number of peo- treatment. ple who turn up in A&E and actually die from a suicide attempt is The first challenge is how to encourage suicidal people to ask small, so that breeds a culture of ‘oh no, not another one.’ On the for the help they need and, once they do, how to assess the risk other hand, you will be admitted to a ward very quickly if you have compassionately. The initial port of call for someone seeking a high index of risk; that is, if you didn’t leave a suicide note and urgent help in Britain is likely to be the NHS Choices website, have made a very violent attempt.” which advises the suicidal to call the Samaritans or NHS Direct, or Who is at risk? Public perception, partly based on vigorous to go to their GP or accident and emergency, and talk about how campaigning by bereaved parents of young suicide victims, might they are feeling. Good advice in theory but, in reality, the hope- suggest that the young are a particularly vulnerable group. How- lessness of suicidal feelings may well prevent those most in need ever, the group most at risk in the UK, according to a new report from following it. published by the Samaritans, a suicide prevention charity, is work- For many, treatment comes only in the aftermath of a suicide ing class men aged between 34 and 55. attempt or an episode of severe self-harm. But it may be a struggle Salimah Lalji, a spokeswoman for the Samaritans, describes for them to get proper help even then. Stories about patients being the “forgotten men” who have little emotional support in their “sectioned”—detained at hospital—against their will under the lives. “Men depend more on relationships than women do, so rela- Mental Health Act are commonplace. The experience of patients tionship breakdown can effect them more deeply,” she says. who have to fight to convince hospital staff that they still need Unemployment is also a major factor. Historical suicide rates treatment after the suicide crisis is less well known. among those entering the job market at a time of recession are consistently high. Anna Blundy is a writer in training to be a psychotherapist The government’s national suicide strategy, launched in Sep- prospect november 2012 A cry for real help 55 © howard davies/report digital davies/report howard © A Samaritans support sign on Beachy Head, near Eastbourne; others are placed at railway tracks, bridges and buildings across the country tember, concentrates on prevention by removing the means. not saying it’s right, but if you see the same person being admit- A study by the Oxford Centre for Suicide Research has proven ted week in, week out, and never progressing no matter what you that this works: people whose method of suicide is removed often have to offer,” particularly when hospitals are under such pres- do not go on to kill themselves. Suicide rates decreased after sure, he says, “you might be able to understand the hatred that laws curbing gun ownership were passed; again when the drug gets directed towards them. co-proxamol was removed from the market; and again when “There was a guy a few months ago who walked into A&E ask- paracetamol was repackaged. ing to be admitted because he was suicidal. The doctors assessed Lalji says that the Samaritans’ aim is, “to widen the gap him as not a big risk and sent him home. He left, poured boiling between thought and action in that 30 to 60 minute crisis time.” water over his arm, called an ambulance and was assessed and Once the crisis has passed, resolve is usually diminished. “The admitted. Now he gets admitted whenever he wants to.” biggest example of effective removal of means was when coal gas Others might argue that even though he may not be about to was replaced by methane in the 1960s,” explains Mark Williams, kill himself, this patient is fighting for the help he needs but can- a professor of clinical psychology at Oxford University. “It had a not articulate. Dr Mani Sairam, a psychiatrist and on-call reg- huge effect region by region as the switch was made.P eople could istrar, is understanding about the needs of such patients, which no longer put their head in the oven.” However effective this kind include longer term support. “Often the patients feel more secure of prevention may be in limiting actual deaths, it again does little when they come in. Out in the community they have no support to address the background causes. but in hospital they are being taken care of. A great many people Even when hospitals properly recognise suicidal thoughts in have been saved by services—both with hospital admission and the their patients, they are less good than they could be at tackling therapy and support teams afterwards.” the deeper questions. There is a “major issue” of “negative atti- “They say it takes a village to bring up a child,” says Profes- tudes towards this patient population, particularly in doctors and sor Williams. “I’d say it takes a village to support someone who nurses in the general hospital setting,” says Keith Hawton, profes- is suicidal. It is important to hold that person through the end- sor of psychiatry at Oxford University. ings and transitions of treatment and to make sure they continue A conversation with a psychiatric nurse on an acute ward in to be held.” south London illuminates this disturbing problem. “There are a It is this long term help that is so often neglected in favour of a lot of young women on the wards who self-harm,” he says. “The medical focus on the risk posed by a particular attempt. The NHS sad thing is that if it doesn’t stop before they are 18 it becomes must fully address deeper issues of mental health if it wants to almost a lifestyle; a way of dealing with the world. help more people who are at risk from suicide. “There is unspoken hatred towards them from a lot of staff. I’m The Samaritans can be contacted on 08457 90 90 90. 56 prospect november 2012 Adventures on the edge of consciousness

In his new book Oliver Sacks reveals how an amphetamine trip led to his lifelong obsession with the strangest experiences of the human mind adam kirsch

sk a philosopher to name the most influential phil- neurologists. But only Sacks has had the literary ability and philo- osophical essay of the last half-century and there’s sophical curiosity to take his cases out of the consulting room and a good chance he will choose Thomas Nagel’s 1974 reveal their deeper, more universal interest. paper “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?” The point of That interest is not just philosophical, of course. It is primarily Nagel’s argument is not that there is anything espe- human, and the dramatic appeal of Sacks’s stories can be gauged Acially exciting about bats’ mental lives, but simply that there is no by the number of playwrights and filmmakers they have inspired. way for a human being to understand how bats—or, for that mat- Harold Pinter’s play A Kind of Alaska grew out of Sacks’s classic ter, any other creature—experience the world. What would it be Awakenings, which was itself turned into a movie starring Robin like to know the world not through light and colour, but through Williams; most recently, the story has inspired Will Self’s novel sound and echo? The answer cannot be found by opening up a Umbrella, shortlisted for the Man Booker prize, in which the Sacks bat’s skull and measuring the electrical pulses in its tiny brain. figure is a doctor called Zack Busner. Christopher Nolan’s film Nagel’s argument suggests there is an irreducible gulf between Memento, a thriller about a man incapable of forming long term the human brain and the human mind. The mind may be created memories, seems clearly indebted to Sacks’s case study “The Lost by the brain but there is no way to deduce the nature of conscious- Mariner” from his bestselling 1987 book The Man Who Mistook ness from even the most complete neural map. The old mind-body His Wife for a Hat. After Sacks wrote about her in An Anthropol- problem, which bedevilled Descartes in the 17th century, does not ogist on Mars (1995), the high-functioning autistic Temple Gran- disappear even in an age of neurological wizardry like our own. din became famous in her own right, and was the subject of a 2010 “Without consciousness,” Nagel writes, “the mind-body prob- biopic starring Claire Danes. lem would be much less interesting. With consciousness it seems Both directly and indirectly, then, few writers have exercised hopeless.” as much influence as Sacks on the popular imagination of men- The only way to find out what it’s like to be a bat would be to tal health and illness. Which does not mean that readers look to ask a talking bat. But what if you could find a human being whose Sacks for a scientific education. As some critics have noted, he sel- consciousness, whose experience of the world, was so radically dif- dom spends much time tracing the precise aetiology of a patient’s ferent from the norm that he is in some sense inhuman, or super- disease, and he has little to say about cutting-edge research in neu- human? What if a human brain, through some disease, stroke, or rology. Writers like Eric Kandel, in his recent The Age of Insight, or injury, produced a qualitatively different kind of mind, yet left its Antonio Damasio, in books like Descartes’ Error (1994) and Self possessor still human enough to tell the world—with the help of an Comes to Mind (2010), do more to explain just how the brain cre- interpreter—what his world felt like? ates the mind. Oliver Sacks has spent his career serving as that kind of inter- What interests Sacks, rather, is phenomenology: close descrip- preter—a literary ambassador to the far countries of neurological tions of what it is actually like to live with dysfunctions of the otherness. In his books, we have met a pair of twins who instinc- brain. As he has written, “there were always two books, potentially, tively “see” the most complex mathematical facts, but are unable demanded by every clinical experience: one more purely ‘medi- to add or subtract; a woman so trapped in her own paralysed mind cal’ or ‘classical’—an objective description of disorders, mecha- that she does not experience the passage of time; a man who can- nisms, syndromes; the other more existential and personal—an not recognise anything he sees, from a glove to a face, though his empathic entering into patients’ experiences and worlds.” The eyes work perfectly. His new book, Hallucinations, also journeys title of An Anthropologist on Mars was taken from Temple Gran- into the outer reaches of human consciousness, focusing on the din’s description of herself, trying to work out the subtle sig- hallucinatory experiences of otherwise ordinary people. nals that govern most ordinary human communication. But Sacks, who will turn 80 next year, has been a practicing neu- Sacks was justified in appropriating it for himself, for the men- rologist in the New York area for almost half a century, though he tal worlds he writes about are deeply alien to the average reader. was born and raised in London. He has taught generations of students and cared for countless patients in nursing homes. The dis- n Hallucinations, Sacks reveals how he first discovered his eases and symptoms he has seen must be familiar to many other calling: on an amphetamine trip. Sacks writes candidly about how, in the mid-1960s, he embarked on a voyage of pharma- Adam Kirsch’s latest book is “Why Trilling Matters” (Yale University Press) Iceutical discovery. This was hardly unique at the time; what prospect november 2012 adventures on the edge of consciousness 57 © adam scourfield adam © Two brains: few authors have influenced the popular imagination of mental illness as much as Sacks made Sacks unusual is that he was led to drugs less by genera- internal voice said, ‘You silly bugger! You’re the man!’” tional instinct than by literary influence and scientific curiosity. As Maybe Sacks needed to be high to allow himself such an a student, he had read the classics of drug literature: De Quincey immodest claim, but it turned out to be justified. Sacks’s first and Baudelaire and Aldous Huxley. By the time he was 30, Sacks book would in fact be a study of migraines, from which he himself was well equipped as a doctor both to procure drugs and to com- suffers.B ut it was Awakenings, his 1973 book, that introduced the bine them. On one occasion, he writes, “I developed a pharmaco- world to what would become his signature style. logic launchpad consisting of a base of amphetamine (for general Starting in the mid-1960s, Sacks began to treat a group of sur- arousal); LSD (for hallucinogenic intensity); and a touch of can- vivors of the epidemic of encephalitis lethargica, or “sleepy sick- nabis (for a little added delirium).” ness,” that swept the globe after the first world war. Forty years But the trip that really mattered came in February 1967, when on, they had descended into a Parkinson’s disease so severe as to be Sacks, in an amphetamine rush, read through a 500-page book almost unimaginable: catatonic, motionless, bodies wrenched into about migraines by a Victorian doctor named Edward Liveing. impossible contortions. Then, in a transformation Sacks describes Here, he realised, was the kind of writing he wanted to do: “I loved in practically religious terms, these patients were brought back Liveing’s humanity and social sensitivity,” the immediacy with to life by the drug L-DOPA, which supplied their brains with the which he conjured his patients’ lives. “Who,” Sacks recalls asking neurotransmitter dopamine. “I was seeing such things,” Sacks himself, “could be the Liveing of our time? A disingenuous clut- recalled in an introduction to a later edition of Awakenings, ter of names spoke themselves in my mind… And then a very loud “as had never, perhaps, been seen before—and which, in all 58 adventures on the edge of consciousness prospect november 2012

probability, would never be What the experiences of seen again.” Awakenings taught Sacks But if that suggests a was that neurological ill- Hollywood story of mirac- ness could only be fully ulous cure, it is mislead- understood by imagining ing. When they first tried the altered “sense of real- the drug, in the summer of ity” that it brought to its 1969, Sacks’s patients did victims. Some of the book’s indeed seem to rise like so most powerful and horri- many Lazaruses. But soon fying passages are its evo- many patients had gone cations of the subjective from one extreme to the experience of severe Par- other. Instead of immobil- kinson’s; what it feels like ity, patients now suffered from the inside. In the case from unstoppable move- of “Rose R” it seemed that ments, tics, agitation and the disease had literally insomnia. Some refused to stopped her perception of go on with L-DOPA, prefer- time. “Waking up” in 1969, ring catatonia to mania; oth- she still felt as though it ers resigned themselves to a were 1926, her last year of life of violent oscillations. health before encephali- There was, Sacks came tis lethargica claimed her. to understand, no cure What did it feel like to for what his patients had. spend 43 years trapped At first he believed that if in timelessness, think- the dose of L-DOPA could ing about nothing? Rose R be precisely calibrated, it explained that it was like would be possible to avoid its looking at a map. negative “side effects.” But “Everything I do is a the very idea of side effects, map of itself, everything he came to realise, was an I do is a part of itself,” she illusion. In a system as intri- told Sacks. “Every part cate as the human brain, the leads into itself... I’ve got a introduction of a powerful thought in my mind, and drug was inherently chaotic. then I see something in it, This realisation led Sacks like a dot on the skyline. It to doubt the conventional comes nearer and nearer, understanding of health and then I see what it is— and sickness he had learned For Sacks, science is a refuge against suffering and mental chaos it’s just the same thought in his medical training. As I was thinking before. And he wrote in Awakenings: “We rationalise, we dissimulate, we pre- then I see another dot, and another, and so on... Once I get going I tend: we pretend that modern medicine is a rational science, all can’t possibly stop. It’s like being caught between mirrors, or ech- facts, no nonsense, and just what it seems.” oes, or something.” His approach to L-DOPA and its effects made him something If Sacks’s physical descriptions of his patients often evoke of a pariah among neurologists. His papers on the subject “elic- Dante, this passage beats anything in Kafka. Here is a “sense of ited vehemently censorious, even violent, rejections, as if there reality” as alien to most of us as a bat’s, but explained in such a way were something intolerable in what I had written. This con- that we can almost grasp it—a task that ordinarily belongs to fic- firmed my feeling that a deep nerve had been struck, that I had tion. No wonder Sacks’s way of writing about the lived experience somehow elicited not just a medical, but a sort of epistemologi- of illness, cultural and imaginative as well as biological, has proved cal, anxiety—and rage.” immensely influential on later writers, including classics of the This professional rejection led him to turn Awakenings into a medical literature genre like Anne Fadiman’s The Spirit Catches call to arms, whose real subject is not just L-DOPA but the short- You and You Fall Down (1997) and Rebecca Skloot’s The Immortal comings of a mechanistic model of neurology. To fully understand Life of Henrietta Lacks (2010). a patient’s experience, Sacks argued, it’s necessary to think empa- thetically and biographically, not just biologically. The loss we acks’s tendency to see a patient as a life rather than a case experience in illness is not simply a matter of bodily function: our comes from his parents, both of whom were doctors. As a “sense of what is lost, and what must be found, is essentially a met- child, he writes in his 2010 book The Mind’s Eye, “a lot of aphysical one. If we arrest the patient in his metaphysical search, the dinner-table conversation was inevitably about medi- and ask him what it is that he wishes or seeks, he will not give us cine, but the talk was never just about ‘cases.’ A patient might

n C layto S a tabulated list of items, but will say, simply, ‘My happiness,’ ‘My present as a case of this or that, but in my parents’ conversation,

© Noah © lost health,’ ‘My former condition,’ ‘A sense of reality.’” cases became biographies, stories of people’s lives as they CURIOUS HOW TO BE GAY BRIGHAM YOUNG OBAMA AND Pioneer Prophet BEHAVIOR DAVID M. HALPERIN AMERICA’S Yawning, Laughing, JOHN G. TURNER POLITICAL FUTURE “What is marvelous is Hiccupping, and ““Exceptionally well researched THEDA SKOCPOL Halperin’s rich analysis of Beyond and endlessly interesting.” “While Barack Obama’s many aspects of this gay ROBERT R. PROVINE advisers work furiously on an cultural life, showing the —Stuart Kelly, The Scotsman election campaign that will “Turns an evolutionary lens on distinctive ways it makes use reunite American left and everything from the gross to of straight culture… This is “Young’s life is admirably right [. . .] this symposium in the faintly improper [. . .] An not meant to be a coffee- chronicled in this fine new political academia considers exercise in ‘small science’— table book, encyclopedia biography [. . .] [Written with] the legacy of his first term.” some of it speculative, all of it or ‘how-to manual’: these clarity and energy.” fascinating.” already exist. It is rather —Richard Aldous, —Steven Poole, The Guardian —Nature an erudite meditation by Irish Times Belknap / 978-0-674-04967-3 / £25.00 978-0-674-06597-0 / £19.95 “Beautifully written and one of the world’s leading constantly surprising. Provine queer theorists. It provokes, [. . .] is charmingly funny, sparkles and bristles with dotting his exegesis with ideas, claims, defenses and laconic flashes of thematic the kind of epigrams…that silliness or amused humility.” would make for great seminar discussions… This is a great —Steven Poole, book, it will generate heated The Guardian Belknap / 978-0-674-04851-5 / £18.95 debate.” —Ken Plummer, Times Higher Education Belknap / 978-0-674-06679-3 / £24.95 HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS WWW.HUP.HARVARD.EDU BLOG: HARVARDPRESS.TYPEPAD.COM UK TEL: +44-(0)203-463-2350 60 adventures on the edge of consciousness prospect november 2012 responded to illness or injury.” who merely take brief holidays from reality. Drugs are probably Reading his 2001 memoir Uncle Tungsten, however, it becomes the most popular way to do this—as the word “trip” suggests— clear that Sacks’s childhood prepared him for his adult career in but Sacks covers a range of other hallucinogenic conditions as other, less happy ways as well. The central trauma of his child- well. These can be as trivial as hypnagogic visions or voices, hood, he writes, came in 1939, when he was evacuated from Lon- experienced as you fall asleep, and as exotic as Charles Bonnet don and sent to the country. In Sacks’s case, this meant a school, Syndrome (CBS), in which a totally blind person begins to see Braefield, which he remembers as a nightmare of sadism and images. deprivation. Writing about these events some 60 years later, it is Most of the time, Sacks points out, it is easy for us to tell when clear that he has not fully recovered from them. When his older we are hallucinating: the images we see are just that, images, brother Michael began to exhibit psychotic symptoms, Sacks without the tangible and emotional presence of real objects. The writes: “I became terrified of him, for him, of the nightmare more philosophically interesting cases in Hallucinations are those which was becoming reality for him, the more so as I could rec- where reality itself seems altered, in such a way that it is impos- ognise similar thoughts and feelings in myself, even though they sible—for the patient, and maybe for the doctor as well—to sepa- were hidden, locked up in my own depths. What would happen rate symptom from true perception. to Michael, and would something similar happen to me, too? It In epilepsy, for instance, seizures are often preceded by hal- was at this time that I set up my own lab in the house, and closed lucinatory states. For Dostoevsky, one famous sufferer, these the doors, closed my ear, against Michael’s madness.” moments seemed to offer a connection to the divine: “I felt Science, then, was a refuge against suffering and mental heaven was going down upon the earth and that it had engulfed chaos for Sacks. While he is a character in most of his essays, me,” he wrote. “I have really touched God.” Such religious feel- Sacks is highly reticent when it comes to his personal life; you ings are common among epileptics. Sacks cites a paper arguing can read his books and come away knowing virtually nothing that Joan of Arc’s visions are best understood as epileptic symp- about his feelings towards sex, politics, or religion. But it is note- toms, and in his first book he wrote that the visions of the medi- worthy that, as a neurologist, Sacks’s own specialty brought him eval saint Hildegarde von Bingen matched common migraine into the closest possible contact with mental disorder. He has symptoms. He is very hesitant, however, to take the next step and managed to remain in touch with his nightmares in a way that is assert that this means religious experience itself is a kind of hal- often productive for writers. lucination: “To speak of a biological basis and biological precur- Most of Sacks’s cases, however, are not as flatly nightmarish sors of religious emotion says nothing of the value, the meaning, as those in Awakenings. Rather, what interests him is the way that the ‘function’ of such emotions, or of the narratives and beliefs neurological disorders create their own worlds—worlds that are we may construct on their basis.” different from our own, and usually worse, but not without their Even so, the implications of Sacks’s work for metaphysics are own integrity. He is fond of quoting Ivy McKenzie’s formulation: unmistakable. His case studies point to the conclusion that there “The physician is concerned... with a single organism, the human is no such thing as a simple objective reality. What we call objec- subject, striving to preserve its identity in adverse circum- tivity is really the consensus of all similarly constructed minds; stances.” Thus Temple Grandin, though she can’t understand of all healthy brains. Sacks’s stories can thus be read as footnotes most human emotions, is able to build a successful career on to Kant, who first demonstrated that we can never know the nou- her close empathy with animals. The work of the autistic savant menon, the thing in itself, but only the phenomenon, the thing Stephen Wiltshire, who is able to make incredibly accurate draw- as it presents itself to our particular kind of mind. Autism, Par- ings of buildings after a single viewing, “may never develop, may kinson’s and other brain conditions can so fundamentally alter never add up to a major opus, an expression of a deep feeling or one’s experience of the world as to create a wholly different real- theory or view of the world”; but, Sacks insists, “his vision is val- ity, one which is no less real to those who experience it. It takes a uable... precisely because it conveys a wonderfully direct, uncon- doctor and writer as intrepid as Oliver Sacks to guide us through ceptualised view of the world.” those strange, and strangely human, worlds. This insistence on finding the humanity in the most damaged individuals can lead, in Sacks’s work, to an occasional saccha- rine note—an insistence on finding a redemptive message even in cases of mere casualty. There is also the danger of voyeurism, of allowing the reader to thrill to the weirdness of some of his case studies. This happens most often in The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat, where some cases read like the kind of “cases” Sherlock Holmes solves. In that book, “The Man Who Fell Out of Bed” deals with a man who is convinced that his leg does not belong to his body; that it is a strange limb placed in his bed as some sort of cruel practical joke. The denouement of the story, italics and all, seems like pure Edgar Allan Poe: “But—and at this point his conversational manner deserted him, and he suddenly trembled and became ashen-pale—when he threw it out of bed, he somehow came after it—and now it was attached to him.” Sacks’s most adventurous and consequential work deals with people who, like Nagel’s bat, inhabit a profoundly foreign world. By contrast, Hallucinations, his new book, is lighter, almost frol- icsome at times, because it deals with otherwise ordinary people NFC Business Benefits Advert (April):Layout 1 19/04/2012 14:32 Page 1

Support The National Forest Meet corporate, environmental and social responsibility objectives by supporting The National Forest. Efficient, Effective, Ethical Contact: Lynne Richards T: 01283 551211 E: [email protected] W: www.nationalforest.org 62 USus economy prospect november 201262 Special report Charles Dumas: Staring at the cliff John Dizard: A good time for gas Roger Kay: Growth in IT Nick Carn: Safety in US Treasuries November 2012 American recovery time How well has the US economy bounced back from the crisis?

Staring at the cliff The US’s economy is faring better than its politics, says Charles Dumas

The economy will dominate the problems that confront the winner of the 6th November election, but this is an election worth winning. Either President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will benefit from the way that the US economy has adjusted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis— better than anywhere else. For investors this means that, after some turbulence this winter, the US stock market could yield solid returns, with better growth than Europe or Japan, and probably outperforming all but a few emerging markets as well. As soon as the election is out of the way, the White House and Congress will be facing the “fiscal cliff” on 31st Decem- ber, the result of their failure to agree on a budget earlier in the year. Laws are already in place to make budget savings and the expiration of tax cuts from the George W Bush era is also scheduled then. That would enforce a fiscal tightening of a massive five per cent of GDP, unless all parties can agree on a new budget.

64 US economy prospect november 2012 to soften these changes, as the result of risen. Aided by a rise of their currencies three years of weak recovery. actually making them would almost cer- against the dollar, the result could have The flight of investment and jobs to tainly be a major recession. But some rem- been an increase in US exports. China and the Pacific rim has been halted. nant of the “cliff” will probably remain in But this did not happen. Japan could The slow recovery—US recoveries nor- place. Although this could slow down the not raise consumption but did let the yen mally see four to five per cent real GDP economy in the first half of next year, it is soar. As a result, it has had a dismal recov- growth for two to three years—reflects the a big step towards an essential element of ery. Germany regards saving as inherently rebalancing of household finances (pay- the US’s adjustment after the crisis: con- good, and economics as a branch of moral ing off debt), and a decent start in getting trol of its public sector deficits, and its philosophy; it told others to be like Ger- the budget deficit under control. House- debt levels, in the face of rising healthcare many, holding onto its low costs within hold debt, nearly 130 per cent of disposa- and pensions. the euro structure. China carried on sav- ble income at the peak of the crisis, is now One paradox of the 2007-08 debt crisis ing more than half its GDP and simply below 110 per cent. was that the world savings rate—the share launched a wasteful initiative that took With the current low interest rates, of world income saved—was the highest on investment from 42 per cent of GDP in home-owning households are paying record. In Japan, China, the Asian Tigers, 2007 to 50 per cent last year. out about 14 per cent of their disposable Germany, Benelux, Scandinavia, Switzer- Deprived of the needed devaluation to income in servicing debt, at the bottom land and Austria, savings were far larger complement domestic austerity, America of the sustainable range of 14 to 15.5 per than profitable investment opportunities instead used budget deficits—more spend- cent that prevailed in the 1980s and 1990s. between 2004 and 2008. The result was a ing by the federal government—to revive Debts are under control and housing is global decline in real interest rates, which its economy and offset the forced adjust- starting to revive. The federal government spurred property and construction booms ment to household balance sheets. The has also managed to cut the public sector in the US, UK, Ireland, Mediterranean budget deficit peaked at 12.5 per cent of deficit from its 12.5 per cent peak to 8.5 Europe and elsewhere—much of it essen- GDP in mid-2009. per cent in the second quarter of 2012. The tially wasteful. It also prompted house- tightening has been impressive but is far holds in those countries to save much less “America moved out of from over, a crucial point in understanding than in the past. Believing their houses the argument about the fiscal cliff. were suddenly worth much more, people the household-debt On the Federal Reserve’s definitions, spent more or saved less. US public sector debt has risen to about To achieve export surpluses and send frying pan and into 90 per cent of GDP, from the 50 to 60 per excess savings abroad, countries with sav- cent region that prevailed in the 20 years to ings gluts had to ensure that they were the budget-deficit fire” 2007. If it is to be contained at or below 100 exceptionally competitive on costs. China per cent, each year’s incremental addition secured this by retaining the undervalued So America moved out of the house- to the deficit must be less than incremen- yuan-dollar peg, which was shadowed by hold-debt frying pan, into the budget-def- tal GDP; that is, growth in the economy, “soft pegs” in Japan and elsewhere in the icit fire. Americans railed against China’s including inflation.T he latter could be four Pacific rim. Germany and surrounding policy of pegging the yuan to the dollar, per cent; within that, real growth might be Mediterranean countries had falling rela- which was seriously cramping their free- two per cent. So the recent shift gets the SU tive costs courtesy of the euro. dom of manoeuvre. But ironically, China’s less than halfway there. The full fiscal cliff The crisis started in mid-2007 with the policy damaged its own economy in pre- of five per cent would finish the problem widespread collapse of supposedly off bal- cisely the manner needed to solve Amer- off in one fell swoop—except that it would ance-sheet “financing vehicles” holding ica’s problem. The excessive stimulus to probably finish off the economy too. mortgage-related derivatives, often based wasteful investment, and China’s leaders’ The fiscal cliff includes 1.5 per cent of on subprime borrowers. That removed insistence on keeping the currency under- GDP for the 2003 Bush administration tax a temptation for American households valued, gave it inflation—big time. cuts on “ordinary” people, which are due to to spend more by shutting off the route It is habitual to look at the consumer expire on 31st December but are sure to be to this wasteful investment. In turn, the price index, a monitor of the price of key perpetuated. Excluding this, the argument world savings rate jumped to an all-time household goods, which never rose more is about the expiry of tax cuts for the rich high, leading to recession from early than 6.5 per cent. But consumer spend- (0.4 per cent of GDP), payroll tax reversion 2008. Several months later rickety global ing is less than 35 per cent of China’s GDP from the recent concessionary rate (0.8 per finances collapsed as Lehman Brothers expenditure, compared to 50 per cent for cent), the ongoing fiscal tightening of one went down. investment and nearly 30 per cent for per cent a year embodied in the debt ceil- The resulting crash brought worse exports. The prices of the last two were rising agreement of a year ago, and the addi- recessions to saver countries including ing at an average of eight per cent a year tional tightening of 1.25 to 1.5 per cent China, Japan and Germany than it did to for more than two years. Labour costs that was the “fallback” provision after the the US. These countries had been depend- grew by some nine per cent a year for even failure to come up with a bipartisan pro- ent on exports. So China was determined longer. Meanwhile the cost of US labour gramme of extra cuts. The total is 3.5 per to hold onto its undervalued exchange rate, rose by negligible amounts. cent of GDP. while Germany retained the equivalent Contrary to much of the still-excited Wall Street and Mr Bernanke assume through its membership of the euro. Only projections about China’s export strength, the politicians will be “rational” and not Japan saw its exchange rate soar, making the country had become seriously uncom- want a recession in the first part of next the dollar, in effect, slightly devalued. petitive in exports by mid-2011. America year; that they will therefore reduce this 3.5 The only way the US economy could had achieved devaluation in its currency— per cent, perhaps even to nil. have recovered healthily while households through Chinese inflation. Investment in Will politicians be “rational” and what saved more was through export growth. If fixed assets by S U businesses has grown is rational for politicians anyhow? Time the countries with savings gluts had taken by ten per cent over the past year, even is tight: the cliff will have to be rene- measures to encourage their citizens to though the economy has been growing gotiated by President Barack Obama, spend more, consumption would have at only 2.2 per cent annually for the past who would remain in office until late ISA SIPP 3 SHAREDEALING TRIM YOUR TRADING COSTS DOWN TO AS LITTLE AS £6.25. THAT’S NEAT.

Did you know that our Investment Dealing Account is a straightforward, great value way to trade? Our standard online dealing fee is £12.50 which can be reduced to as little as £6.25 for Alliance Trust PLC shareholders depending on the number of shares held. There's no set-up fee and no inactivity fee – just a ﬂ at rate quarterly administration charge of £10 plus VAT. Our investment platform gives you direct access to over 25,000 investments, including equities, investment trusts, bonds, gilts and funds. Neat, isn’t it? Please remember that the value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back all the money you invest. Other charges may apply. Please refer to our Table of Charges. To take advantage of our low dealing fees, apply online. www.alliancetrustsavings.co.uk/ida 0800 011 3825

Full terms and conditions about our Investment Dealing Account offer are available at www.alliancetrustsavings.co.uk/ida. Alliance Trust Savings Limited is registered in Scotland No. SC 98767, registered offi ce, PO Box 164, 8 West Marketgait, Dundee DD1 9YP, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority whose address is 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS, fi rm reference number 116115. The FSA gives no fi nancial or investment advice. 66 US economy prospect november 2012

January even if he lost, and by the current and whichever way the cliff gets fixed, Democrats agreed on one point: the US has a Congress, between election day on 6th US policy makers have a healthier future near-infinite supply of natural gas at today’s November and Christmas. In addition, economy to deal with than China, Japan low prices. Thanks to shale gas, more or less the US is projected to breach the legal or Europe. strictly regulated depending on the party in limit for national debt once again at the It is hard to imagine Wall Street get- power, the consumer or voter is in line to get end of the year—requiring further action ting through the coming negotiations something for nothing. by Congress. without taking a tumble. Our forecast The good news for investors is that this But assuming the politicians are is that when the dust settles, there will is not exactly true. Yes, there is a lot of gas rational, what might they do? Given the be 2-2.5 per cent of the cliff left, though out there but it is not going to be cheap to need to cut another four per cent off the some of it may be phased in over time. produce. To replace production from shale deficit, would it not be tactically sensible This could mean slow growth, maybe stag- gas wells, which decline faster than conven- to make cuts now? Who wants to tighten nation, in early 2013. But if that knocks tional wells, let alone to provide the supply policy just before the next election? some of the recent shine off SU stocks, we increases needed to displace coal-fired gen- Rational politicians who want to limit could be looking at a generational buying eration, will require something close to a US debt may find the cliff convenient. It opportunity. doubling of the present US natural gas price. was, after all, put into law by politicians Charles Dumas is chairman of Lombard Street That might cover the total costs of the nec- to occur just after these November elec- Research and co-author of “The American Phoe- essary expansion of exploration and productions. But there is also a rational case that nix” (Profile Books) tion, which today’s prices do not. It will work they would be wrong to limit the debt to well both for the gas producing companies 100 per cent of GDP. The slump in China and for the oilfield services and drilling com- and shambles in Europe has driven the panies they employ. cost of borrowing for the US, adjusted for Even as both parties trumpeted the clean inflation, down to minus 0.8 per cent for On the rise energy miracle of shale gas, the exploration ten-year bonds, and to minus 1.6 per cent and production companies have been bleed- for five-year bonds. People are prepared It’s a good time to invest ing cash and cutting back on their drilling to pay the US 0.8 per cent a year for ten programmes. There are now about half as years just to get their money back. Surely in gas services many onshore rigs dedicated to drilling for there are a couple of bridges to build out John Dizard gas in the US as there were a year ago. Delays there, or roads to widen, that could yield in completing and connecting new wells have a positive real return? In which case run- put off a consequent decline in gas produc- ning the deficit yields a simple profit as “Of course not! People who want to drill for oil tion. But that decline is coming fast. well as creating jobs. and not use the Hughes bit can always use a pick The low natural gas price has made it Against this lies the danger that very and shovel.” much easier for environmentalists and reg- high US debt levels could make the coun- Howard Hughes on whether his family’s com- ulators to push for the retirement of coal try vulnerable to much higher interest pany had a monopoly on drilling tool bits. plants. This locks in higher levels of future rates later, to blackmail by major credi- Now the electoral season has nearly ended, demand for gas-fired generation. tors such as China—or to imposing an the fog of disinformation over the Ameri- It’s worth considering the prospects for unfair burden on future generations. can energy business has begun to lift. Pol- the service companies who will benefit from I lean to the second, cautious view: iticians on all sides managed, somehow, to a rise in gas prices and gas drilling, such as that the US needs to avoid debt levels now exceed past levels of mendacity about the Baker Hughes International or Halliburton. associated with Italy and Japan, let alone choices and costs that faced the electorate. Mr Hughes would be pleased by what was Greece, despite the advantages of its size For all their differences over climate change, sold to the voters. and its reserve currency. But whichever renewable subsidies, or the pace of offshore John Dizard writes on energy, international finance way you feel on this conflict of objectives, oil drilling, both the Republicans and the and capital markets o tix T racy/dem M ilan A lex © Environmental campaigners have pushed for the retirement of coal plants in the US, securing higher future demand for natural gas 3URÀW)URP5DUH6WDPSV 216% growth in the last 10 years* *(7<285)5((*8,'( www.stanleygibbons.com/PROS :KDW·VLQVLGH\RXUIUHHJXLGH"

Profit From Rare Stamps

Key benefits of investing in rare stamps

The security of rare stamps

Rare stamps v. the housing market

Rare stamps v. gold

Investor testimonials

Our guarantee to you

How a rare stamp portfolio works

Choosing the right product for you

Get your free guide www.stanleygibbons.com/PROS or call 0845 026 7170

* As per the Bloomberg-listed GB30 Rarities Index (STGIGB30). Please note: stamps and certain other collectibles are not designated investments for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order 2001 and as such are not subject to regulation by the Financial Services Authority. The value of your investments can go down as well as up. Investment 68 US economy prospect november 2012

More recent arrivals on the scene, ing point for a discussion of the merits including Google, Facebook and LinkedIn, of US Treasuries. But even in the best of Innovation were formed to address the latest wave of times, and these are not the best of times, innovation—social, crowd, mobile, cloud. the first questions to be asked of a fixed These firms are creating excitement, jobs, income investment are the stability of the is key and new revenue streams; they are vortices currency in which it is denominated and drawing young talent and capital even as the reliability of its guarantor. Information technology other technology segments languish. For sovereign states that control the is a humming industry Silicon Valley in the San Francisco Bay issuance of their own currencies—Euro- area has entire cities and towns devoted to land’s members gave this up when they Roger Kay bringing new ideas to market: Sand Hill formed the European Monetary Union— Road in Menlo Park for venture capital, the risk is not so much of default but of Stanford for scientific talent, Santa Clara being repaid in a devalued currency. My view of whether the US information for silicon development, Redwood City for Locals find that inflation has eroded the technology (IT) sector is a good investment databases, and the list goes on. value of their investment. Foreigners find is coloured by the fact that I am, as a tech- Small companies are popping up every that the exchange rate has moved against nology analyst, a booster of the overall seg- day, trying their hand at the potentially them. It is also the case that although ment professionally. That having been said, next big thing. bond prices move up and down as inter- I do see that some areas and individual The question for investors, then, is: how est rates rise and fall, changes in the value companies are more promising than others. can one find the firms with the best pros- of the currency in which they are denom- I hold a basic belief that IT remains pects and get involved with them? Alas, inated tend to dwarf these fluctuations. one of the healthiest sectors in the glo- there is no one answer. There are some Currency volatility dominates local price bal economy. At 35-odd years old, it is also overlooked gems in the public markets, but volatility. one of the youngest industries and contin- many of the best outfits are being privately US Treasuries, and in particular Treas- ues to attract money and talent. It is con- financed. P rivate equity pools have become ury InflationP rotected Securities (TIPS), stantly morphing and evolving as new ideas important kingmakers in the US IT market. are a “safe haven.” A promise from the US supplant old ones. Apple, the most valua- But this sector has years of growth, evo- is as good as it gets while inflation protec- ble company on earth right now, is merely lution, and innovation in front of it. tion would become very valuable if the the most obvious success. Many smaller Roger Kay is the founder of Endpoint Technolo- present monetary policy experiments go companies such as Yelp, a location-based gies Associates badly. Like most safe havens the price has restaurant and entertainment review site, gone up and the prospective return gone younger companies such as Salesforce.com, down during the financial turbulence a customer relations software firm, think- of the last few years. In the early 2000s, outside-the-box companies such as Google, when it was believed that the US econ- and older but more diverse companies such Safety net omy could carry on expanding at four per as IBM also contribute to industry ferment cent or more in perpetuity, TIPS offered a and capital formation. return of 4.5 per cent over the future infla- But if I’m optimistic about the sector Treasuries: a poor tion rate. Today they guarantee the owner overall, my feelings about individual com- but safe return a loss after allowing for inflation, albeit a panies and markets cover the spectrum. small one. For example, the rise of high-mobil- Nick Carn Obviously this isn’t a good long term ity devices—smartphones, tablets, and return. There are, however, circumstances very light notebooks—implies that the for- (investors in Greek securities have just tunes of those on board are brighter than A guarantee from the US Treasury is the experienced them) in which there are no those that have missed the boat. Compa- best in the world for the same reason that good outcomes—just less bad ones. Much nies licensing processor designs from ARM a US passport would fetch one of the top of the world economy is struggling and Holdings, such as Apple, nVidia and Qual- prices in an auction of world identity doc- monetary policy is heading further into comm, look better right now than Dell uments. As PJ O’Rourke once remarked, uncharted waters—with unknown conse- and Hewlett Packard, which are working wherever you go in the world you can quences for future inflation.S ettling for a with traditional PC designs from Intel and always recognise the US Embassy: it’s the poor return with the certainty of avoiding Advanced Micro Devices. one with the protest out front and the long a catastrophic one has its attractions. As a key supplier of technologies for the queue at the visa section. Nick Carn is the founder of Carn Macro Advisors waning PC market, Microsoft is on an ebb Paper currencies are ephemeral things. tide but has fielded a strong offering in high Everyone knows the story of Germany’s mobility in the form of Windows 8 and Win- hyperinflation but in fact, even before the dows Phone 8. Success is not assured, but advent of the euro, almost all European early returns are promising. Meanwhile, currencies had been replaced at least once it continues to mint money with its tradi- over the course of the last hundred years. tional franchises and its substantial posi- In much of Africa and South America it’s tions in the enterprise and cloud markets. been a frequent occurrence. For this to be Some companies are trying to diversify avoided the first condition is that the con- and evolve their businesses, but are rooted stitutional and territorial integrity of the in what could be thought of as the modern issuer remains intact. The circumstances rust belt of IT: the big iron purveyors such in which a dollar could not be exchanged as EMC (storage), and Cisco (networking); for goods in, say, a supermarket in Minne- the expensive proprietary software firms apolis are hard to imagine. “We’re passing a whole such as Oracle (databases). This might seem an extreme start- raft of measures” THE SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT COMPANY

SAINTS AIMS TO BE A CORE INVESTMENT FOR PRIVATE INVESTORS SEEKING INCOME.

A long-lasting combination. The fund aims to deliver dividend growth by pursuing income from diverse sources, so it currently invests in equities, bonds, property and forestry. It targets a level of annual income growth ahead of LQÀDWLRQDQGSD\VRXWDGLYLGHQGUHJXODUO\HYHU\TXDUWHU

On top of this, the Scottish American Investment Company also seeks to team up income with capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of high quality companies on a global basis, each selected for their potential to offer sustainable earnings growth well into the future. It’s a combination that complements each other over the long term.

The Scottish American Investment Company is an investment trust managed by Baillie Gifford and is available through our Share Plan and ISA.

Please remember, your investment can be affected by changing stock market conditions and by currency exchange rates. The value of your investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount invested.

For investment that aims to provide dual rewards over the long term, call 0800 027 0133 or visit www.saints-it.com

Baillie Gifford – long-term investment partners

Your call may be recorded for training or monitoring purposes. Baillie Gifford Savings Management Limited (BGSM) is the manager of the Baillie Gifford Investment Trust Share Plan and Investment Trust ISA and is wholly owned by Baillie Gifford & Co, which is the manager and secretary of the Scottish American Investment Company P.L.C. Your personal data is held and used by BGSM in accordance with data protection legislation. We may use your information to send you information about Baillie Gifford products, funds or special offers and to contact you for business research purposes. We will only disclose your information to other companies within the Baillie Gifford group and to agents appointed by us for these purposes. You can withdraw your consent to receiving further marketing communications from us and to being contacted for business research purposes at any time. You also have the right to review and amend your data at any time. 70 prospect november 2012 Science & technology © ted streshinsky/corbis ted ©

elements out beyond 113 might be relatively The elusive number 113 stable, decaying so slowly that large amounts of them could be painstakingly accumulated Scientists’ creation of a new “superheavy” element—the culmination for exotic applications. of a nine-year project—may change chemistry, says Philip Ball The “natural’” periodic table runs from hydrogen (element 1) to uranium (element 92), each being distinguished from the oth- The periodic table of elements just got a new underway since at least 2003. ers by the make-up of its atoms. Every atom member. At least, maybe it did—it’s hard to These artificial elements are made and has a super-dense core called a nucleus, sur- tell. Having run out of new elements to dis- detected literally an atom at a time. The Jap- rounded by negatively charged particles cover, scientists have, over the past several anese researchers claim only to have made called electrons. The nucleus contains pos- decades, been making “synthetic” atoms, three atoms in total of element 113, all of itively charged particles, or protons, and— too bloated to exist in nature, which sur- which decayed almost instantly. with the exception of hydrogen—neutral vive for just an instant before they splinter in If verified, it will add another member to particles, or neutrons, which help to bind radioactive decay. the already substantial list of artificial ele- the protons together. It’s the number of pro- But this is increasingly difficult as the ments assembled over the past seven dec- tons that defines an element and determines atoms get bigger. The new element recently ades of nuclear science. With each new its place in the periodic table. claimed by the Nishina Centre for Acceler- addition to these “superheavy” elements, The table arranges the succession of ele- ator-Based Science, a Japanese research nuclear chemists have a fresh opportunity to ments into groups that share similar chemi- institute in Saitama, near Tokyo, has proven test whether the periodic table—the organ- cal properties. Uranium has 92 protons, and frustratingly elusive. It is known simply ising scheme for all of chemistry—falls into is the heaviest element occurring on Earth. as element 113, its serial order in the peri- disarray at such extremes, as some think it Elements with numbers of protons higher odic table, and efforts to create it have been might. There is even a possibility that some than that must be created artificially. prospect november 2012 science & technology 71

This means forcing more protons and world was at war, and almost at once both This is the method used by the Institute neutrons into nuclei already so replete with the Allied and German physicists realised an for Heavy Ion Research (GSI) in Darm- such particles that they are prone to falling atomic bomb could be made from artificial stadt, Germany, which since the 1980s has apart by radioactive decay. For any given ele- elements 93 or 94, which would be created outpaced both the Americans and the Rus- ment, the number of protons is identical in by neutron bombardment of uranium inside sians in synthesising new elements. It has every atom, but the number of neutrons is a nuclear reactor. Only the Americans man- claimed priority for all the elements from moveable. Atoms of the same element with aged it, of course. 107 to 112, and their names reflect this: ele- different numbers of neutrons are called So the race to make new elements, with ment 108 is hassium, after the state of Hesse, isotopes. Uranium-235, for example, the roots in wartime, took off during the ensu- and element 110 is darmstadtium. But this key ingredient of nuclear reactor fuel, has ing cold war, with motives as much military crowing is a little less strident now: many 92 protons and 143 neutrons, while the as scientific. Some of them were discovered of the recent elements have instead been much more abundant uranium-238 has 146 in the fallout of nuclear bomb tests. The named after scientists who pioneered ele- neutrons. Soviet efforts also began in the 1940s, thanks mental and nuclear studies: bohrium, men- While certain isotopes of any element largely to the work of Georg Flerov. In 1957 delevium (after Dmitri Mendeleev, the may decay if they have too many or too few he was appointed head of the Laboratory of periodic table’s creator), hahnium, ruther- neutrons, all the isotopes of elements as Nuclear Reactions, a part of the Joint Insti- fordium (afterE rnest Rutherford). In 2010, heavy as uranium are too stuffed full of par- tute of Nuclear Research in Dubna, north IUPAC approved the GSI team’s proposal ticles to remain stable, and eventually decay. of Moscow. Dubna has been at the forefront for element 112, copernicium, even though As one progresses through the subsequent of element-making ever since; in 1967 the Copernicus is not known to have ever set foot artificial elements into the “superheavies”, lab claimed to have made element 105, now in a chemical lab. this instability gets ever more pronounced— called dubnium. The heaviest element so far recognized by which is why those like element 113 fall apart That claim exemplifies the ill-tempered IUPAC is 116, and 114 has also been officially almost as soon as they are made. history of artificial elements. It was disputed verified. S o why the fuss over 113? Although by the rival team at Berkeley, who made 105 the elements get harder to make as they he Japanese claim isn’t going to in the same year and argued furiously over get bigger, the progression isn’t necessar- pass without challenge, not least naming rights. The Soviets wanted, mag- ily smooth: some combinations of protons because the first group to sight a nanimously but awkwardly, to call it nielsbo- and neutrons are (a little) easier to assem- new element enjoys the privilege of hrium, after Danish physicistN iels Bohr. The ble than others. In 2003, the group at the namingT it, an added spur to the desire to win. Americans preferred hahnium, after the Ger- Nishina Centre began firing zinc ions at bis- Just as in the golden years of natural ele- man nuclear chemist Otto Hahn. Both dug muth in the hope of creating element 113. ment discovery in the 19th century, naming in their heels until the International Union The centre, run by the government-funded tends to be nationalistic and chauvinistic. No of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC), research organisation RIKEN, was a relative one could begrudge Marie and Pierre Curie the authority on chemical nomenclature, newcomer to element-making but asserted their polonium, the element they discov- stepped in to resolve the mess in the 1990s. its success just a year later. ered in 1898 after laboriously sifting tonnes Finally the Russian priority was acknowl- It’s precisely because they are unstable of uranium ore, which they named after edged in the name, which after all was a small that these new elements can be registered Marie’s Polish homeland. But the recent riposte to the earlier American triumphalism individually by detectors: the radioac- baptism of element 114 as flerovium, after of americium (element 95), berkelium (ele- tive decay of a single atom sends out parti- the founder of the Russian institute where it ment 97) and californium (98). cles— generally an alpha particle—that can was made, and element 116 as livermorium, These “superheavy” elements, with be spotted by detectors. Each atom initi- after the Lawrence LivermoreN ational Lab- atomic numbers reaching into triple fig- ates a whole chain of decays into successive oratory where it originated, display rather ures, are generally made now not by piece- elements, and the energies and the release more concern for bragging than for euphony. meal addition to uranium but by trying to times of the radioactive particles are char- Perhaps this is inevitable, given that mak- merge together two smaller but substantial acteristic fingerprints that allow the decay ing new elements began in an atmosphere nuclei. One, typically zinc or nickel, is con- chain and the elements within it to be of torrid, even lethal, international con- verted into electrically charged ions by hav- identified. frontation. The first element heavier than ing electrons removed and then accelerated At least, that’s the theory. In practice uranium was identified in 1940 at the Uni- in an electric field to immense energy before the decay events must be spotted amidst a versity of California at Berkeley. This was crashing into a target made of an element welter of nuclear break-ups from other radi- element 93, christened neptunium after the like lead. oactive elements made by the ion collisions. planet Neptune, given that uranium had And with so many possible isotopes of these been named after Uranus in 1789. Neptu- superheavy elements, the decay properties nium quickly decays into plutonium, atomic of which are often poorly known, there’s number 94, the discovery of which was kept lots of scope for phantoms and false trails— secret during wartime. By the time it was not to mention outright fraud: Bulgarian announced in 1946, enough had been made nuclear scientist Victor Ninov, who worked to obliterate a city: it was the explosive of the at Berkeley and GSI, was found guilty of fab- Nagasaki atom bomb. ricating evidence for the claimed discovery Making nuclei more massive than those of element 118 at Berkeley in 2001. When of uranium involves firing elementary par- you consider the figures, some scepticism ticles at heavy atoms in the hope that some is understandable: the Japanese team esti- will temporarily stick. That was how Edwin mated that only three to six out of every 100 McMillan first made neptunium atB erkeley quintillion (ten to the power of 18) zinc ions in 1939. McMillan didn’t realise what he’d would produce an atom of 113. done until the following year, when chemist Last year, IUPAC representatives Philip Abelson helped him to separate the decided the Japanese results weren’t con- new element from the debris. By then the A scientist at RIKEN researches element 113 clusive. But neither were they persuaded 72 science & technology prospect november 2012 by subsequent claims of scientists at Dubna iour is similar. and Berkeley, who have begun collaborat- But a very massive nucleus starts to ing after decades of bitter rivalry. How- undermine this tidy progression of shells. ever, on 27th September, the RIKEN team The electrons closest to the nucleus feel the released new data that makes a stronger very strong electric field created by such case. The team leader Kosuke Morita says a large number of protons, which makes that he is “really confident” they have ele- them very energetic: they circulate around, ment 113 pinned. They’ve only a single and indeed through, the nucleus at close decay chain to adduce, starting from a sin- to the speed of light. This means they feel The month ahead gle atom of 113, but some experts now find the effects of special relativity: as Einstein ANJANA AHUJA the case convincing. If so, the name game predicted, particles moving that fast gain India and the UK will begin sifting may get solipsistic again: rikenium and mass. That alters the electrons’ energies, through joint research projects in japonium are in the offing. with knock-on effects in the outer shells, November to develop “smart” energy Given how hard it is to make this stuff, so that the outermost electrons that deter- grids. This involves sticking why bother? Plutonium isn’t the only arti- mine the atom’s chemical behaviour don’t communication devices on the power ficial element to find a use. For example, observe the periodic sequence. Then the grid, allowing it to be monitored minute amounts of americium are used in periodic table loses its rhythm, as such ele- remotely and tweaked to reflect supply some smoke detectors. Yet as the superheav- ments deviate from the properties of others and demand. Energy from renewable ies get ever heavier and less stable, typically in the same group. sources can also be fed in seamlessly. decaying in a fraction of a second, it’s harder Some anomalous properties of natural The £10m partnership between to imagine how they could be of technolog- heavy elements are caused by these “relativ- Research Councils UK and India’s ical value. But according to calculations, istic” effects.T hey alter the electron energies department of science and technology some isotopes of element 114 and others in gold so that it absorbs blue light, account- is aimed at cutting carbon emissions. nearby should be especially stable, with half- ing for the yellow tint of the light it reflects. lives of perhaps several days, years, even mil- And they weaken the chemical bonds From 1st November, the department lennia. If true, these superheavies could be between mercury atoms, giving the metal its for international development will gradually accumulated atom by atom. But low melting point. require any research it bankrolls to be others estimate this “island of stability” Relativistic deviancy is expected for published freely. It’s a milestone in the won’t appear until element 126; others sus- at least some superheavies. To look for it, long fight for open access publishing. pect it may not really exist at all. researchers have to accomplish extraordi- Currently, paywalls used by journals There is another, more fundamental, narily adroit chemistry: to figure out from mean that breakthroughs in disease motivation for making new elements. They just a handful of atoms, each surviving for control and food security are lost on test to destruction the current theories of perhaps seconds to minutes, how the ele- poorer countries. In the meantime, nuclear physics: it’s still not fully understood ment reacts with others. This could, for more than 12,000 scientists have signed what the properties of these massive nuclei example, mean examining whether a partic- up to a boycott of publisher Elsevier are, although they are expected to do weird ular chemical compound is anomalously vol- (thecostofknowledge.com), instigated things, such as take on very deformed, non- atile or insoluble. The teams at GSI, Dubna by Cambridge mathematician Sir spherical shapes. and Berkeley have perfected methods of Timothy Gowers. Artificial elements also pose a chal- highly sensitive, quick-fire chemical analysis The idea of geoengineering the lenge to the periodic table itself. It’s periodic to separate, purify and detect their precious planet is being dusted off in because, as Mendeleev and others real- few exotic atoms. That’s enabled them to November—literally. Scientists from ised, similar chemical properties keep reap- establish that rutherfordium (element 104) Strathclyde University will reveal pearing as the elements’ atomic numbers and dubnium buck the trends of the periodic details of a madcap plan to place a dust increase: the halogens chlorine (element table, whereas seaborgium (106) does not. cloud between the Earth and Sun, to 17), bromine (35) and iodine (53) all form As they enter the artificial depths of the shield us from climate change. The idea the same kinds of chemical compounds, periodic table, none of these researchers entails gravitationally anchoring the for example. That’s because an atom’s elec- know what they will find.T he Dubna-Liver- cloud to an asteroid. One cosmic hitch: trons, which determine how it reacts with more collaboration claims to have been mak- you have to get the asteroid up there others, are arranged in successive “shells”. ing element 115 since 2003, but IUPAC has first, widely thought to be impossible. Elements in the same group of the periodic not yet validated the discovery. IUPAC is table have electrons arranged in similar pat- still considering the claims for 117 and 118, The Winton Prize for Science Books terns, and so some of their chemical behav- and both GSI and the RIKEN team are now will be dished out this November/ On hunting 119 and 120. the shortlist Brian Greene joins James Is there any limit to it? Richard Feynman, Gleick as a member/ Send an the Nobel prize-winning American physicist, entertaining four-line ditty ‘bout these once made a back-of-the-envelope calcula- tomes/ And two will win the shortlist, tion showing that nuclei can no longer hold sent directly to their homes. onto electrons beyond an atomic number of 137. More detailed studies, however, show See royalsociety.org/awards for more that to be untrue, and some nuclear scien- information. Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnell, tists are confident there is no theoretical chair of this year’s Winton judging panel, limit on nuclear size. Perhaps the question will choose our winners. Send your four- is whether we can think up enough names line poems to answer@prospect-maga- for them all. zine.co.uk by 20th November. Winners Philip Ball is a science writer and the author of will be announced in January. “Curiosity: How Science Became Interested in Anjana Ahuja is a science writer “It’s the settee or the jumper, Harold.” Everything” (Bodley Head) New Prospect Ad_Layout 1 09/10/2012 15:43 Page 2

UKAS Accreditation: Delivering Confidence

The United Kingdom Accreditation Service accredits testing, calibration, inspection and certification organisations against national and international standards.

UKAS accreditation provides confidence in the competence, impartiality and performance capability of these evaluating organisations. www.ukas.com Government and business rely on UKAS accredited organisations to provide confidence in the quality of a wide range of products and services.

Find out how UKAS accreditation delivers confidence in these and many other areas throughout all parts of the UK.

Tel: 020 8917 8443 Email: [email protected] 74 prospect november 2012 Life Pop up restaurants 74 Wine: hearty reds76 Meet the data hoarders 76 Leith on life: smiley faces 78

Today’s specials

erness of Bubbledogs is that it embodies a sort of meeting point, while also suggesting, by means of its hard-to-pass-through cur- Street food is invading restaurants, and restaurants are tain, that the two realms will always remain taking to the streets, says William Skidelsky separate. Does the Bubbledogs concept work? Yes, emphatically. For those on the smart side of Champagne and hotdogs: one of the world’s in front of you and served by Knappett him- the curtain, the set-up is one of the attrac- least appetising culinary combinations, or a self. The handwritten menu, which changes tions. Everyone is seated in a row; there is no marriage made in heaven? Many, if asked, daily, gives little away. The first four courses “best table.” The format encourages inter- might err towards the former, but James on the night I visited read: “Scallop. Cod. action, both with the staff and with other Knappett is of a different opinion.T he menu Chicken. Cauliflower.”B ut this doesn’t mat- customers. I was seated (presumably not by at Bubbledogs, his recently opened restau- ter much because you get to observe each accident) next to another solo diner: a chef rant in Fitzrovia, central London, consists dish being made and then Knappett gives a who, it turned out, was soon to start working of a dozen “gourmet” hot dogs and a selec- fuller description when he hands it to you. at the restaurant. It was helpful having him tion of “producer” (or grower-made) cham- Thus your attention is drawn away from the there to answer my queries about the food pagnes. On the website, Knappett explains menu and waiters—the customary props of —“How exactly do you puff up pig skin?”— that his inspiration for the concept was the the restaurant—and towards the cooking but had he been a lab technician from Don- Italian custom of pairing prosecco with process itself. This is theatrical cooking of caster I’m sure we still would have got on cured pork. It was, he writes, a “no brainer: an unusually intimate kind, an almost lit- fine. And we also chatted to the couples on greasy, spicy, salty meatiness with an ice- eral dining-in-the-round. either side of us who were, I suspect, grate- cold glass of refreshing bubbles.” And so More than being a fine place to eat, one ful to be provided with extra conversational diners at Bubbledogs can munch their way can, I think, make the case for Bubbledogs outlets, given that the meal lasted three and through, for example, a “K-Dawg” (a kimchi, as an emblematic restaurant. Its two halves a half hours. red bean paste and lettuce hotdog) accom- represent two distinct but related trends in Of course, none of this would have added panied by a glass of Laherte blanc de blancs dining out: street food’s incursion into the up to much had the food been no good. But champagne, all for under £20. restaurant, and top-end cuisine’s partial it turned out to be excellent. Knappett has The ad executives who work in Fitzrovia escape from it. Both trends are connected worked at some of the world’s best restau- evidently approve of the concept, because to the recession and both are democratic in rants, including Noma in Copenhagen and Bubbledogs has become hugely popular. spirit. One is an upward movement—a buff- Per Se in New York. At Bubbledogs, how- On the quiet street where it is situated, the ing up of the shabby; the other a downward ever, he has eschewed cheffy elaboration early evening line for a table often snakes one—a roughing up of the smart. The clev- in favour of a cuisine that, while techni- back past several neighbouring buildings. cally adept, also has some of the simplic- (As is de rigeur for edgy London restaurants ity of home cooking. A magnificent dish of these days, Bubbledogs doesn’t take book- “Truffle,” for example, consisted of home- ings, except for parties of six or more.) Yet made tagliatelle with a truffle-butter sauce, the champagne-and-hotdog operation is topped with black truffle shavings and itself only really a kind of front for a more foraged chickweed (procured, Knappett ux ambitious undertaking that started up in informed us, that very morning in Fulham). October, a few weeks after Bubbledogs first It sounds lavish, but such a dish would be opened. At the back of the dining room is a within the range of an accomplished home thick brown curtain. Part it, and you find cook who happened to have some truffle and yourself in a larger, less frenetic inner sanc- chickweed handy.

tudio FM/ El ectro l ue/ S tudio tum, comprising of a state-of-the-art kitchen “Chicken,” our fourth dish, was similarly Bl surrounded on three sides by a bar. straightforward in presentation, if more ute Secure a booking in this section of the demanding to prepare. A modernist cros- restaurant, as I did recently, and after elbow- tini, it comprised a crispy wafer of chicken ing your way past the hotdog-hungry hordes skin (made, I learned, by baking the skin you are seated at one of the bar’s 19 places, sandwiched between two roasting dishes) A bso l A ssociati/ before you proceed to eat your way through spread with mascarpone and topped with

Above, fancy dining goes underground in the Old Vic Tunnels. Opposite, “The Cube,” a pop-up restaurant on top of the Royal Festival Hall of the skin and the sharp creaminess of the ing a permanent place. Recent hits such as or in other unexpected venues—the roof of mascarpone provided just the right base for Meat Liquor (a burger restaurant) and Pitt Selfridges, for example—or start supper the salty-sweet topnotes of the bacon jam. Cue Co (American BBQ fare) are the prod- clubs, or open eateries in former petrol sta- Other dishes didn’t rise to these heights, ucts of this trajectory. tions. In one of the more extreme examples, but there were no duds and the same subtle And as the street traders have moved Ben Spalding, ex-head chef at Roganic— thoughtfulness was evident at every stage. upwards, so the chefs have started to come itself a pop-up iteration of L’Enclume, a Excluding drink, the cost was £68. That down to join them. The casualisation of the Michelin two-starred restaurant in the Lake may seem like a lot, but it isn’t too bad if you British restaurant is a process that, accord- District—has taken fine dining right down to consider that it works out as £5 a course. ing to Russell Norman, proprietor of Polpo the street at his Stripped Back stall in Broad- Afterwards, I felt not only lightheaded but and several other central London venues, way Market. There’s a choice of either four or surprisingly light of stomach too, and I even dates back to the 1960s and 70s when there six courses, and dishes include absinthe-can- toyed with the idea of grabbing a hotdog on was a move from traditional restaurants, died fennel with rapeseed cake and tonka my way out before thinking better of it and modelled on hotel dining rooms, towards bean cream. This is restaurant food—or an heading home. “concept” destinations, such as Joe Allen approximation of it—divested of all trap- Bubbledogs is, in part, a child of Britain’s and Langan’s Brasserie. This “slow move- pings of the restaurant. street food “revolution,” which has taken ment,” Norman says, continued in subse- As a result of these developments, it isn’t place in the past five years. The founding quent decades, but has only truly gathered too far-fetched, I think, to suggest that the principle of is that even though young peo- pace since the economic downturn. With the very definition of what constitutes a restau- ple like eating food from stalls and vans (it’s discovery of a new market of adventurous rant is changing. Since the modern restau- fast and cheap), they still prefer it to be of but cash-strapped young eaters who value rant came into being in Paris just before the good quality. Street food, unsurprisingly, atmosphere and buzz over the traditional French Revolution, it has proved a remark- tends to draw its inspiration from humble trappings of smart dining, the entry costs to ably durable institution, hardly changing in culinary traditions—southern American opening a restaurant have lowered. “In the format at all. But in the new, mixed-up world food, pizza, dumplings—and often involves old days you needed half a million at least, of dining, the idea that there could even be an element of juxtaposition, such as Indian but now you can do it for much less,” says such a thing as a format is starting to seem burgers or Korean pulled pork sandwiches. Norman, whose own flagship restaurant in quaint. Restaurants aren’t in danger of dis- Recently success on the street has begun Soho famously required an outlay of just appearing, of course; it’s just that what con- to provide a route into restaurants. The £140,000. stitutes a restaurant is much less clear than model is one of steady upward mobility: One result is that good chefs no longer it once was. When it comes to eating out, start with a stall, move to a van, then to a just want to cook in traditional restaurants. these are interesting times. residency or “pop up” before finally open- Instead they do residencies in shabby pubs William Skidelsky is books editor of the Observer 76 LIFE prospect november 2012

by choosing the optimum time for picking. tion, the amount of tossing and turning These are bold reds and it shouldn’t be done during sleep, and even our mood forgotten that the white wines from the swings and meditation practice, un-Zen Croatian posip grape are exceptional too: though that may seem. slightly viscose but pure, with more miner- Perhaps you have yet to witness friends ality than fruit, slightly honeyed but with whipping out their phones to compare Wine a slightly saline edge. The very best exam- ovulation calendars or look on with a sink- Barry Smith ples come from the award-winning domain ing heart as a date feeds the cost of din- Hearty reds Korta Katerina. These are wines best drunk ner into his expenditure app, but if you in situ; at lunch, after a sea swim, with a plate know anyone who runs you’ll probably of local fish. But to transport the summer’s have noticed their distance, time, pace As winter approaches, and barbecues give sunshine to a cold winter evening, seek out a and speed digits sliding across your Face- way to bonfires, it’s time to start eating warm- bottle of decently aged plavac mali from one book newsfeed. ing stews and drinking hearty reds. These of the better producers and breathe in the For QS-ers, gathering information will be full-bodied wines made from thick- last drop of summer warmth. It will make about themselves becomes an obsessive skinned grapes, such as syrah, carignan and the heart glad. pastime. “Self-knowledge through num- cabernet sauvignon, which produce firm and Barry Smith is editor of “Questions of Taste: The bers” is their rallying cry and much count- succulent tannins. Wines from these grapes Philosophy of Wine” (Oxford University Press) ing is involved, paces per day and hours of are hearty in a further sense too: the tannins sleep per night being just the beginning. extracted from their skins are rich in resvera- Self-monitoring can probe more abstract trol, an anti-oxidant that helps prevent heart variables, too—an hourly photographic disease, and much else besides, we’re told. self-portrait, for instance, is intended to Researchers have discovered greater quan- chart happiness. There is even some old tities of this miraculous compound in fer- fashioned dream journaling, though pen mented than unfermented grape juice, which and paper have largely been replaced is good news for us all. by automatic data-gathering. At the QS Disputes abound, of course, about which Digital life annual conference in Palo Alto in Sep- grape varieties produce the highest levels. Hephzibah Anderson tember, wearable electronics, biofeedback But the greatest percentage of resveratrol is widgets and sensor-equipped gizmos were not in the skin of the fruit, but in the stalks, Meet the data hoarders all big, offering fresh ways to monitor eve- which means that wine makers who ferment rything from smile frequency to posture. whole grape bunches may end up producing If asked to demonstrate how well you Yes, the geek factor is off the scale; the not just bolder but also healthier wines. know yourself, you might confess to an line between enlightened self-awareness It’s odd that we should associate power- endearing behavioural quirk or some and blinding self-absorption can seem ful wines made from syrah, carignan and minor personality kink. But do you know extra fine at times, too.B ut there are some cabernet with winter fare, when varietals your REM average and glucose levels? promising applications to all this. like these only grow in the sunnier climes. At around the time you’re reading Think of the southern Rhone, the pulsating this, more than a hundred data fiends “The unexamined summers of Bordeaux, the baking heat of will be gathering in London to share tips Bandol: warm places with plenty of autumn on acquiring the kind of numerical self- life may indeed sunshine, whose wines seem to lock in some knowledge that until recently has been essential ingredient of summer to nourish us the preserve of professional athletes and lack value, but all through the winter. fitness freaks. The occasion is the 13th Each bottle is a time capsule. Its warm- “Show & Tell” session of the UK chapter what of the over- ing contents also conveying a sense of of the “Quantified Self” (QS), a global examined life?” place, and few grapes do this as well as the movement founded in San Francisco five Croatian varietal plavac mali. In the past, years ago by Wired magazine journalists Among the guest speakers at Sep- this grape gave rise to rustic and uncom- Gary Wolf and Kevin Kelly. tember’s QS conference was compu- promising wines. But, now that equal care Today, its followers top 12,000 world- ter scientist Larry Smarr, director of a is taken in the vineyard and the winery, it wide, living everywhere from Bangkok to research centre at the University of Cal- can produce wonderfully distinctive wines Beirut. Among them are academics, tech ifornia. Smarr’s self-tracking began with for long keeping. developers and hobbyists; some grappling an attempt to lose weight and eventually Grown on the Pelješac peninsula, facing with serious health problems, others seek- led to an early diagnosis of Crohn’s dis- the sea, the grape takes on a hardy strength ing nothing short of perfection in their ease. Along with diet, rest and exercise, he that comes through in the drink. It needs quest to eliminate inefficiency in their daily now monitors his own blood and lavatorial time and barrel ageing to show its complexi- lives. All are determined to glean a deeper doings. Within the next ten years, he pre- ties, and there is plenty of that on offer in the understanding of themselves through data, dicts, medicine will have been revolution- 2007 Plausus from the valley of Konavle. It declining the analyst’s couch in favour of ised, resulting in not only more effective surprised me on the nose, smelling pleasingly the scientist’s lab bench. preventative care—your doctor may yet of old libraries and furniture polish. On the These “self-trackers” are merely prescribe you an app—but also ultra-per- palate, blueberries, black cherry, fig and a extreme examples of a widespread and sonalised treatment plans. mild medicinal hint of juniper berry give it a growing fixation with personal data, In becoming their own lab rats, how- classy and noble finish. Good weight and bal- fuelled in large part by the rise of the ever, the QS-ers risk missing some ance support an alcohol content of 14.5 per- app. Such software has made quantita- larger points. The unexamined life may cent, which can be higher still in the hands tive assessment accessible to anyone with indeed lack value, but what of the over of some wine makers. But wineries like Plau- a smartphone. examined life? Surely, the poets will cry, sus and Zlatan Otok know how to handle it We can follow our alcohol consump- the “self” is more than the sum total You Click We Deliver_Prospect Full Page 04/10/2012 14:58 Page 1

Tanners Reds To give you a flavou own-label reds: the Rhôner of th Valleye superb Red provenanc is Perrins, whose e of our Châ mad is world-renowned.teau de Bea e by the No Minimum Order! ucastel Châ Our Clare teauneuf-du-P t is ape brated C made by the Sichels w hâteau P ho pa Ang almer and rt-own the cele- ludet. own the Free Express Delivery wonderfu And the latest add l Château Red, prod ition to the uc stabl ed for us by the cha e is the Tanners Dou exciting ps fr available for orders operation in P om Duorum - the ro ortugal. most Find Out M of £90 or more* ore > * Terms and conditions apply Find Out More >

You Click, We Deliver...... over 1,000 painstakingly selected wines direct to your door. It’s so easy with Harpers’ Best Top Merchant of the Year 2012.

tanners-wines.co.uk Independent family shippers of estate wines 78 LIFE prospect november 2012 of our eating, sleeping and working hab- who complained the discussion was though they were in a spirit of pragmatism its? Is there truly no aspect of the human “legitimising the lazily dismissive and and formalised into unofficial smiley dic- experience that cannot be expressed as a prescriptive language mavens of Radio 4. tionaries scattered across the web, emoti- pie chart? For shame!” cons have now been co-opted by surrealists. In such a connected world, the truth is “Why use emoticons sparingly?” he They are punctuational actes gratuits. that our data is already being mined for asked. “Why liken them to weeds? What’s “d8=”, marking the everyday observation us, whether or not we elect to don wear- the basis for evaluating them negatively?” that “your pet beaver is wearing goggles and able electronics. Our mobile phones He added: “;o)”. a hard hat,” for instance, strikes me as funny. function as tracking devices; Google is Likewise “%\v” for Picasso. Likewise— watching as we browse online; store cards for which I am indebted to Betfair Poker’s log our purchase histories. The informa- “A smiley is the almost entirely poker-free Twitter account— tion generated in these and myriad other equivalent of the “>-ii-< iiii”, which apparently signifies: “Go ways is constantly being used to profile fetch mother, a giant crab is attacking the us. Looked at from that angle, the QS-ers office bore penguins.” I pass over the comma splice are at least seizing command of their own in that sentence without comment, by the data narratives. laughing at his way—though it occurs to me that an emoti- Of course, data gives us a sense of con- con for the face I make when I come across a trol; that’s what makes it so seductive— own jokes” comma splice might also be helpful. :-*, or :-[, and so unnerving when our personal or :-I, possibly. The precise shade of emotion information works its way into the hands Now, I would dispute the notion that depends on the font. of others. But it’s worth remembering that to take a view on a question of style is the Will emoticons last? Thirty years is not in its raw state, data is merely informa- same as being “prescriptive”—the lin- bad going. I expect they will. Among other tion, and that is something quite distinct guist’s equivalent of calling someone a things, there are only so many different ways from knowledge. rotten egg. If the comma splice—“I like to make a human face out of punctuation Hephzibah Anderson is a journalist and the linguistics, it is my favourite subject”— marks. That gives them a longevity that author of “Chastened” (Chatto & Windus) became a standard usage I wouldn’t insist other internet usages (nonstandard spell- it was incorrect, but I reserve the right to ings, for instance) might not be expected to find it damn ugly. Likewise, any email or have. Leetspeak—or 133t, as users of the lan- tweet that feels the need to signal a wry or guage might spell it—dates fast, and tends facetious remark with a ;-) makes my heart to be abandoned by its initial users once sink. It’s a redundancy, a clumsiness—the their mums start cottoning on. equivalent of the office bore booming with The chances of emoticons making their laughter at his own jokes. way into mainstream discourse—job appli- But let’s take my correspondent’s cations, medical notes, last wills and testa- Leith on life point on board. Why shouldn’t we speak ments—are slim, however. They evolved, after Sam Leith in praise of emoticons? They have some all, as tools of compression: shortcuts for con- unique virtues. For a start, they introduce veying tone on message board postings. They In defence of the smiley a pictorial element into the written lan- have effloresced most spectacularly in the guage: something western languages have abbreviated spaces of the text message and :-) and the world :-)s with you. This was the not had since the days of illuminated man- the tweet. As such they carry a secondary, discovery made 30 years ago this autumn uscripts. That is pleasing. Users of kanji or, or penumbral, meaning. As well as indicat- by Scott Fahlman, a professor in the com- ancestrally, hieroglyphics are spoilt in this ing a cheery demeanour, the presence of :-) puter science department of Carnegie Mel- regard; we have been scanted. in a message also has a so-called phatic func- lon University in the US, when he proposed Also, they do something rather interest- tion: it marks the communication as having that humorous posts on his departmental ing: like the punctuation marks they are a certain intimacy, crispness and informality. message board be marked with a sideways made of, they add a shade of meaning, feel- It tells you, in other words, that it’s the sort of smiley face to make clear that they were ing or tone to the text in which they occur message that contains a smiley. intended as jokes. rather than carrying a primary payload As long as we need such messages, we He has been credited with inventing the of meaning in and of themselves. That’s will need smileys. If you don’t like them, just emoticon. Now, the blessed things are eve- not an absolute distinction, but I think it remember: :-( and you :-( alone. rywhere. The computer I’m typing this on, holds. And though, as I say, it’s rather a Sam Leith is the author of “You Talkin’ To Me? indeed, had to have its autocorrect nobbled bland primary shade that :-) or ;-) add to Rhetoric from Aristotle to Obama” to prevent it automatically turning the open- the text they gloss, the more opaque vari- ing three characters of my article into a yel- ants bring something more interesting to low smiley face. the party. I especially like o_O, meaning I mention this because the other day I was “surprised” or “confused,” which seems to asked onto the radio to talk about emoticons me to resemble one of Paddington Bear’s to mark their 30th birthday. In the course of hard stares. that discussion—a rather brief discussion, Finally, though the smiley has by now I should say, and a confusing one because been defamiliarised by mass use and in when nervous on live radio I will tend to yelp most circumstances is about as fresh odd words like “disambiguate” and make and unexpected as a “LOL,” there was myself sound like a Dalek semiotician—I said real wit in its conception. There contin- that emoticons had spread like knotweed and ues to be wit. The emoticon is a tight lit- the best way to use them was “sparingly.” tle form—a haiku where, say, an ASCII This caused me, afterwards, to fall into drawing might be seen as a sonnet—and is an argument online with a grumpy stranger used with some inventiveness. Launched

CONTEMPORARY PUBLISHING – CONTEMPORARY READING

Zero Books – Contemporary culture has eliminated the concept and public figure of the intellectual. A cretinous anti-intellectualism presides, cheerled, by hacks in the pay of multinational corporations who reassure their bored readers that there is no need to rouse themselves from their stupor. Zero Books knows that another kind of discourse – intellectual without being academic, popular without being populist – is not only possible, it is already flourishing. Zero is convinced that in the unthinking, blandly consensual culture in which we live, critical and engaged theoretical reflection is more important than ever before. www.zero-books.net

Iff Books – is interested in ideas and reasoning. It publishes material on science, philosophy and law. Iff Books aims to work with authors and titles that augment our understanding of the human condition, society and civilisation, and the world or universe in which we live. www.iff-books.com

New authors can submit work via our websites by using the ‘Get Published’ tab. All imprints are part of John Hunt Publishing Ltd

Reactions | Actions International insights into the current commercial and political issues facing online advertising and publishing.

A must-attend round table assessment and analysis of the latest headline issues concerning the information economy. Hear from, and interact with, leading industry figures. Thursday November 15, 2012 9am – 3pm REGISTER Registration from 8.30am Networking Lunch included NOW reactions-actions.com CBI Conference Centre Centre Point 103 New Oxford Street London WC1A 1DU

p77 1 11/10/2012 14:15 80 prospect november 2012 Arts & books Feminism: not futile 80 Clockwork Orange comes to your iPad 84 Certainties of the Reformation 85 The month in books 87

What women don’t want Voluminous, sometimes silly, these books still show that the pursuit of power and happiness has not been futile, says Jane Shilling

Vagina: A Biography ting-edge science and cultural history that by Naomi Wolf (Virago, £12.99) radically reframes how we understand the The End of Men vagina—and consequently, how we under- by Hanna Rosin (Riverhead, £12.99) stand women.” There was a time when the conflation The ancient conundrum, “What do women of a woman’s essential being with her geni- want?”, has perplexed at least half of human- talia would have raised a startled eyebrow— ity for millennia; but Chaucer’s Wife of Bath or possibly an admonitory fist.B ut since the proposed a pithy solution. In the Canterbury mid-1990s and the popular success of Eve Tales she recounts the story of an unchival- Ensler’s play, The Vagina Monologues, the rous Arthurian knight who was condemned vagina (Wolf uses the term to encompass the to death for raping a maiden. He is saved by external and internal female sex organs, from the Queen, who grants him a year and a day the clitoris up to and including the cervix) in which to discover the answer to the old has become a fashionable—although, Wolf riddle. contends, still a “severely misunderstood”— Riches, replies one respondent to his portion of the female anatomy. year-long survey of the female psyche. Flat- Wolf, who is 49, was born in San Fran- tery, suggests another. Beauty, nice clothes cisco and educated at Yale and Oxford. In and a satisfactory sex life, insist others. All the early 1990s she became a spokeswomen good answers—but not, the knight senses, for what became known as “third-wave” fem- quite good enough to keep his head on his inism with the publication of The Beauty shoulders. Myth, an account of the ways in which unat- The year is almost up when he encoun- tainable ideals of beauty are used to under- ters the loathsome hag, or Grumpy Old mine women. It became an international Woman, in whom all folk wisdom is tradi- bestseller and she has since published half a tionally invested and she offers, for a price, dozen books, although none has met with the to reveal the answer. same success. The secret, she says, is “maistrie”—power, In the introduction to Vagina, Wolf mastery, sovereignty—over men. The knight explains that: “This book’s germ started as a announces it to the Queen and her assem- historical and cultural journey, but it quickly bled ladies. Not one of them disagrees. The grew into a very personal and necessary act knight lives and the poem ends with a brisk of discovery… Due to a medical crisis, I had consciousness I will call… ‘the Goddess.’ prayer that Jesus will shorten the lives of hus- a thought-provoking, revelatory experience I don’t mean to summon up in your mind bands who refuse to obey their wives. that suggested a possibly crucial relation- crunchy-granola 1970s images of pagan God- As with so many ingenious solutions to ship of the vagina to female consciousness dess worship on all-female retreats… Rather, intractable conflicts, the theory is elegant but itself. The more I learned, the more I under- I am carving out rhetorical space that does its practical application has remained prob- stood the ways in which the vagina is part of not yet exist when we talk about the vagina, lematic. Some six and a half centuries after the female brain, and thus part of female cre- but which refers to something very real.” The Chaucer’s tale, the question of maistrie, or ativity, confidence, and even character.” vagina, she concludes, “may be a ‘hole; but power—how to acquire it, how to maintain it, Among men, the link between genitals it is, properly understood, a Goddess-shaped and in what form—continues to haunt femi- and brain is regarded as commonplace— and one.” nist, and female, discourse. often described (by both sexes) in unsympa- This is an ominous preamble, and the Two recent books by the American writ- thetic, not to say pejorative, terms. But Wolf anxieties it raises about Wolf’s impressionis- ers Naomi Wolf and Hanna Rosin approach was sufficiently excited by her new aware- tic approach are swiftly confirmed.S he lards the subject from intriguingly different per- ness of an equivalent (though evidently her text with personal anecdotes, such as spectives. Wolf’s Vagina: A New Biography much more complex) connection in women the one about an insensitive male acquaint- is described by her publishers (with a hyper- to make it the central thesis of her study. ance who threw a party to celebrate her book bolic enthusiasm not shared by the book’s “Throughout this book,” she writes, “I deal, at which homemade pasta vaginas, or many critics) as “an astonishing work of cut- will be referring to a… condition of female “cuntini,” were unappetisingly served with a Hergushing accounts of an encounter with aging effect on the female spirit. rape as a form of torture hasdismayedwillbe Wolf’sa by conviction uniquely that dam rapedgovernmentwasby security officials a young,a male, Listeners to the recent though it were established fact is dispiriting. that women are not supposed to hadgo.”Ibeen punished for‘going somewhere’ “onboth acreative and aphysical level that tatingcase of writer’s block and the feeling, cookery book, Wolf was overcomesalmon fillets.”by a devasInstead of buying“enormous the sausages”fellow and a “several immense prospect november 2012 november prospect T As a reporter,aAs shefrustratinglyis flaky. Herhabitarguingof fromassertion as antric therapist, S yrianpolitical activist who M R ike Lousada,ofike and adio 4 interview with - - ae r ls serious others, than less an finds arerape recantviewthatliclykindssomehisofto se Kennethister seriousdiscussion. sometimessilly book are ideas that deserve good to know. walk have vaginal orgasms ers are trained, they can identifytion”which confirms women that “when research who reports“recent data about vaginal satisfac is fixed on a resolutely low setting. low resolutely a on fixed is tercantake place. Hersense oftheabsurd tabloid before intimate hack, any encoun old-fashioned leaving,excuses and an like her making her with endworkshop both attending a e lde wti ti voluminous within this lodgedYet and ”(her italics). T antric“sacredmassage”spot arts & books & arts C ak wo a forced pub waslark, who T T hebit about training is he formerhe justice min from the way the women S he - - - - - ue se icvrd satig ie in startling rise discovered a she puses sexual assault made against Julian dateAssange. rape in the context of theafter accusations she attemptedof to discuss ingthe beleaguered nuances of by “feminist” attacks on her M incompetent love-making. to leads which illiteracy,” “vaginal calls she something desirefor increasingly extreme images, and addictive an of pornography, are writes, effects she baleful the Among tionships. pornographyofence heterosexual on rela unexpectedally Wolf.in during a march in New York City, 1970 Organisation for Women, interviewed Betty Friedan, president of the National r troublingly,ore college visits to cam on In one chapter, Wolf describes the influ S he writeshe feelof 81 - - - -

© jp laffont/sygma/corbis 82 arts & books prospect november 2012 the incidence of anal fissures among young is less likely to be casting about for a man to Although both women write from an women—the consequence, she claims, of a heal her wounds than to be dishing out the American perspective, their arguments have “hook-up” culture among educated young damage to her inflexible partner, “cardboard a broadly universal resonance; Rosin argues Americans of casual, anonymous, sexual man.” This figure’s “old architecture of man- that the same social shifts she observes in the encounters, often involving porn-led anal liness” hasn’t experienced any renovation in United States are taking place in Asia, Latin penetration. the past century, leaving him uneasily fixed America, the Middle East and “probably, in In support of her argument that the psy- in a “cultural aspic” of old-style “ornamen- a generation or so, Africa.” chological well-being of women is, as a result tal masculinity.” The differences in their views seem more of the neural connections between brain “In the confines of intimate relation- temperamental than ideological. Wolf pro- and vagina, uniquely vulnerable to ver- ships, women’s growing economic power poses a quasi-mystical version of female well- bal abuse, Wolf cites a notorious occasion has done extraordinary things,” she writes. being and creativity, which flourishes best at Yale University in 2010. During a “Take “For the 70 per cent of Americans without when supported by male sexual partners who back the night” rally against rape and sex- a college degree, the rise of the breadwin- have relinquished their masculine aggres- ual violence, male students barracked their ner wife is associated with the destruction sion in favour of gentler, more female traits. female classmates with chants of “No means of marriages. But for the elites, the result is Rosin’s account sees women as agile preda- yes! And yes means anal!” In response, some exactly the opposite. Marriage has become tors, nimbly outmanoeuvring the more fero- of the women brought a lawsuit against the yet another class privilege in America.” cious types of semi-extinct old male dinosaur, university, alleging a hostile educational while keeping some of the cuter varieties as environment. “The Wolfian Goddess is house pets. It is startling to compare Wolf’s perspec- dreamy, creative, There is one striking similarity: both tive on this incident with that of the journalist Wolf and Rosin write from a resolutely Hanna Rosin, author of The End of Men: And mystical. Rosin’s middle-class perspective. They see the the Rise of Women. Addressing the hook-up archetype is less likely to world—both as it is, and as they feel it culture in the first chapter of her book,R osin should be—from a pinnacle of educational describes attending an Ivy League business be casting about for a and working success and financial secu- school party where the “Yes means anal!” man to heal her wounds.” rity. When they venture into the realm of incident was recalled, she reports, as “a fond less fortunate—Wolf visits victims of con- memory”—even by the young women at the Not that the role of the wife in such “elite” flict rape in Sierra Leone; Rosin interviews party who were, she remarks, “not Yale wom- marriages sounds especially privileged in young offenders and women struggling to en’s studies types, for sure.” Rosin’s description of the domestic set-up of raise families in post-industrial towns where Where Wolf sees the hook-up culture as Steven and Sarah, a young couple with a two- male unemployment is endemic—it is invar- an emotional wasteland of soulless mechan- year-old son, Xavier, and another child on the iably in the detached roles of observers and ical sex and anal fissures, Rosin perceives a way. Sarah, a successful lawyer, is the family reporters rather than in a more traditionally very different terrain. Learning to survive breadwinner. Steven stays at home to look feminist spirit of sisterhood. (and thrive) in an atmosphere of crude sex- after Xavier while also studying, in desultory Wolf quotes a fee of £100 an hour for ual aggression is a way for intelligent young fashion, to be a lawyer. But throughout Ros- the services of a Tantric sex guru with no women to learn how to beat men at their own in’s assiduously non-judgemental account of intimation that this might be an outrageous game, she says: “This was their way of psych- their family life, the reader senses a certain sum. Rosin’s resolutely upbeat account of ing the men out, by refusing to back down tightening of the lips. women’s ascendancy regards education as in any game where, in another era, they “Unlike most mums I know, Steven did the magic ticket to success, and ignores the would have been assumed to be the weaker not try to organize the time [with his son] plight of those too fragile or chaotic to join opponent.” into tidy quadrants,” she writes. Instead he the triumphalist stampede. Both women Rosin sees a world in which women’s sits about chatting and dumping Xavier’s acknowledge the powerful influence of por- ascendancy, in education, employment and dirty nappies in the sink. At 6pm, heavily nography on heterosexual relationships, the fraught realm of family life, has brought pregnant Sarah comes home, covers Xavi- but exclude from their accounts any dis- them to the very brink of the “maistrie” envis- er’s sore bottom with cream, pops him in his cussion of the women who choose, or are aged by the Wife of Bath as the key to female high chair with a nutritious meal and sets obliged by circumstance, to work in the bur- contentment. “From a feminist standpoint,” about organising supper. Her husband sits geoning sex industry. she writes, “the recent social, political and on a stool with a beer in his hand, watching In their accounts, as in those of such economic gains of women are always cast as his breadwinner wife at work. “I realized,” swashbuckling commentators on the a slow, arduous form of catch-up in the con- comments Rosin, carefully, “that even our female condition as the sociologist Cather- tinuing struggle for gender equality. But a intimate relationships unfold in a cultural ine Hakim, inventor of the concept of “erotic much more radical shift seems to have come moment, and my moment was still not far capital” and advocate of judicious adultery about. Women are not just catching up any- enough removed from old feminist rage to as a tonic for a secure marriage, 21st century more; they are becoming the standard by divest these tiny domestic decisions of that feminism seems less a political movement which success is measured.” kind of meaning.” and more a lifestyle choice. For a modern Rosin’s view of the female condition is That’s certainly one way of putting it, and feminist it seems that the pursuit of happi- so utterly opposed to Wolf’s—even when it raises an interesting question about the ness and fulfilment is a matter of individual observing the same phenomena and draw- role of feminism in the lives of 21st-century negotiation rather than political activism, ing on the same sources—that the pair could women. Both Wolf and Rosin make ambiva- with as many different feminisms as there are be describing two quite different species.T he lent references to feminism. Wolf is attacked women. Rosin would argue that it is exactly Wolfian Goddess is dreamy, creative, mys- by feminists for proposing that there might this newfound flexibility of outlook which tical, easily damaged and in need of sexual be nuances in rape; Rosin compares her “old has at last given women the means to achiev- healing. feminist rage” with the calm competence of ing the maistrie that they have desired for Rosin’s archetype, the “plastic woman”— a younger woman who seems happy to regard centuries. so-called because of her ability to adapt herself as empowered by her mastery of both Jane Shilling is the author of “The Stranger in the swiftly to changing social circumstances— domestic and work environments. Mirror” (Vintage) Discover the truth behind this VANIS HING W ORLD

“A colorful narrative and a stark warning about the catastrophe facing this remarkable place. ” – Bill Gates

“If Indiana Jones were a marine biologist, he would aspire to be James McClintock. ” – Sylvia Earle, National Geographic Explorer-in-Residence

“ An important and timely book. ” – Elizabeth Kolbert

An evocative look at one of the most extraordinary places on earth

Available now in hardback and e-book from all good booksellers www.palgrave.com © Moviestore Collection/Rex Features bledmemos ofits appearance scrib thethrough novel’sfirst the of his tory the trace even can You himself. gess radiorecordings of r atce, sas and reviews. essays articles, are read excerpts from and it. novel the discuss who as such famousfans, and experts diverse ments. aroundwealtha inother of odd conviction.with Hollander,whohandles thenadsat through. me,the app especially isdelighta tonose or have the book read to you by scriptwithnoteshisdoodles,alland choosea facsimile of the original type book straightforwardly on the screen, or i hardback, intriguingly,in most and, an as work Orange readers. For its wild distinctiveness, tolchocking”—that lingers longest in—allwith thosemost “droogs” and their “horrorshowJoycean slang that the narrator Alex speaks language. It is “nadsat,” the glorious defect,as it allows us to focus on the novel’s ways, may lack sophistication, but his forciblythis reprogrammed mendis is no to ist ClockworkOrange course, if he was being serious. somewhere underneath the moss. landmark of our culture, his name still on it lentfable freeonwill persists, weathereda elistis rarely even mentioned, while his vio Yet today the idea of said,calling“toodidactic itartistic.” be to knockedthree money in weeks”for off he ClockworkA Orange was a fate that Anthony isbeing remembered for the wrong book. It for a writer, among many strongP contenders, £20) by Anthony Burgess (William Heinemann, Edition and iPad app A Clockwork Orange: 50th Anniversary authority of the writer, says An i B 84 1971 film1971 Kubrick’s Stanley The poster for P ras h ms poignanterhaps most failure the of kind ad app, on its 50th birthday. For B res a to ad n isl, of himself, on hard too was urgess eyond the page P ad app for T B here are video clips of clipsvideoare here O res as o lpe fn like fans lapsed or fans, urgess T ee r rare are here nopening it, you can read the absolutely merits this reissuing M O ,in which athug and rap ri Amis, artin - yu a root can you r B B wasjust“ajeu d’esprit ur - T urgess as a major nov A Clockwork Orange here B - urgess felt coming. T he plot of T - om A Clock R

Leo Benedictus - usso- A - - - - mer, Horse T and glossier,treatments given to months 16past have similar, seen rather if two, this app adds the third. tion.” informa hard and violence sex, for look memoirs,declaredhisbooks,”“theyhein hisremembering. “When bookbuyers buy cavalier, with say, always rather let’s was Americanhisbyeditor—but then this chapter was removed against his wishes tradictionwhatof always he insisted—that last one an “optional epilogue,” in mateplain chapter,con we even catch him callingadd “not”the in pen. At the end of the penulti cross out “very far from being” thenand favourite instead book,” my being from far notice him type, “ in tivepleasurebeing givenofhour alone an original publishers at William Heinemann. ouch points to an exciting future for fiction, even if it threatens the B B T urgess’sattic. kn oehr ti cets h fur the creates this together, aken utitis not the first app of its kind. on o on h ls. at sum Last list. the join to soon S P T hakespeare’s nun ulse a comparaenguin published a P o a novel already famous for the first ress,with bleedition of n l o them, readings, of all In videointerviews, facsim l mnsrps and manuscriptsile xet commentaryexpert arts & books & arts r te standard the are rls “ frills. together a porta A Clockwork Orange T ble museum,” M here’sbuzza when you Sonnets ichael OnTheRoad B ringing M y developers by TheWaste Land orpurgo’s - - B . - is very urgess - War T he - - - - comes from a truthfulness that canprint be ascerto digital because much of N its authority stage,ona itaswere, above their audience. has also elevated distribution, authors their into limitations on an elite the groupand e correct.be certain arrangement 81,294 words of must readersbyimplying, itsinfixedness, that a authority with their establish novelists to P ever more parochial and quaintdomains, if ithowever, stays put. the novel is going to seem distractingly snazzy app. fromtattya oldpaperback than fromthis Orange havepreviouslyyounotread respon sive screen is a a good way to be with reminded. If interacting fiction—and forgettingreaderson they’rethatreading obvious: most fiction depends as just for is its reason the success And nut.uncracked ain descriptions, for instance, the trulyuseful. ically they offer and new features are that searchable, updated automat be they can encebooks are also obvious. and sound appear as well. inganobject inthe picture makes its name have provided one answer. already capable of wonders? page of a book. clips, videos, animation—anything—into internet embed sound links, possible to it the less. Ipads and other tablet computers make it also glows red and is spoken aloud.way but when they touch an individualstory, them,readheartotheworditusualorin app, for example, allows children to read the first trickles of a mainstream. cessors are what everybody wants to hear: the try, the appsare often known. In fledglinga indus big moment for “enhanced e-books,”And it isas that,these of course, but itto presentis also scholarly rather editions a of classic texts. Clockwork Orange lisherat is the description of Dan Franklin, digital pub it wih s slowly disappearing, is helps which rint, on-fiction loses less in the transition from As other types of books reach out into new Yet the electronic novel remains a largely T T You might think that this is just a new way app can play its readers actual birdsong. o manyo readers, bookapps look point e datgs f lcrnc refer electronic of advantages he you will get afar richer experience Clockwork Orange and tained. R andomHouse, which produced ever, is a naked lie, clothed only its T audience’s respect. And now that elist online, this is weakened. anyonecan be a published nov B e oties f ae books, paper costliness ofhe esidesthe usual pictures and B T . ut why do it, when paper is prospect november 2012 november prospect e rt o novels, how of truth he app and its prede T C he Bird Guide Brit T hildren’s books heyare easily Cat in the Hat A ClockworkA T ouch A ------prospect november 2012 arts & books 85

Visit the website WattPad.com, however, as he described it, “doesn’t mean some peo- ing now is the explosion of new non-fiction and you’ll get a strong feeling that this need ple won’t be better than others at the whole genres—on blogs, Facebook, Twitter, iPad not matter. Here, authors, most of whom are writing thing,” he said. “It should, though, apps and elsewhere. Soon we will be ready teenage amateurs but one of whom is Mar- undermine that patina of specialness [of the for made-up versions. garet Atwood, post stories for anyone to read, novelist]… That is a good thing; the start of And we already have a few. Last year, the often chapter by chapter, as they’re writ- a great future. In which we can maybe focus popular “Gay Girl in Damascus” blog chron- ten. Readers contribute comments, make more on the books. Which might even rarely icled the experiences of a young Syrian les- requests, design covers, and vote for favour- be special.” bian called Amina during the uprising. Then ites. To some extent, this ends up being inter- Specifically,M iéville’s dream is that we’ll in June it emerged that the whole thing had active fiction—stories influenced by their learn to embrace the idea of authors without been written in Edinburgh by a married readers, who consume them online—even if authority, with copies of their novels being 40-year-old American postgraduate called the finished books could just as easily be read freely exchanged and edited (or, in his word, Tom McMaster. “Gay Girl in Damascus,” in on paper. The site’s most popular books have “remixed”) by a more engaged population short, turned out to be a novella. It makes already accumulated millions of “reads.” of readers. you wonder how many other unknown nov- Fifty Shades of Grey, of course, had similar But Miéville has things backwards, I els are right now being written, and read, on origins on the website FanFiction.net. think. Instead of embracing a lower status— the internet. You might think that watching a novel- which will reduce the power of fiction—nov- Despite his lukewarm feelings towards A ist’s fretful path towards completion would elists will just have to work harder to keep it Clockwork Orange, Burgess came to loathe reduce a finished novel’s power. For more high. The better novelists already use a very Stanley Kubrick for overshadowing him with serious novels, it probably does. Yet Watt- old tool to do this: prose style, which gives the 1971 film. But what a writer wants and Pad certainly proves teenagers’ enthusiasm novels much of their power, by making them what he gets have never had much more than for participatory reading—even if, for the seem to come from somewhere definite and wisps of a relationship. Today we find his text moment, they have mostly teenage tastes. confident.T alent, I think, is going to have to fissured with uncertainty and shadowed by In a superb talk at the Edinburgh World get more obvious in this way. foreign images, just as technology is making Writers’ Conference in August, the novel- Here’s my remix of Miéville’s predic- all novels seem less certain of themselves. ist China Miéville predicted a future for the tion for the novel’s future: it’s going to be Yet this was always coming. Having novel that would look quite like this. Dis- the 18th century again. The printing press thrived for centuries as masters of a small missing game-like choose-your-own-adven- was the disruptive technology then. From print island, novelists were always vul- ture stories as only “interesting,” and calling print grew the genres of non-fiction story- nerable to the appearance of a bridge. soundtracked or animated stories “a banal telling—and from those the novel emerged. Bridges can be crossed both ways, how- abomination,” he welcomed instead the com- Robinson Crusoe (memoir), Gulliver’s Travels ever. And once the shock has passed, we’ll ing belittlement of novelists. (travel book), Pamela (collection of letters): have a wider world of fiction to explore. Self-publishing, “the blurring of bound- all were fake, but all were presented as real, Leo Benedictus is the author of “The Afterparty” aries between writers, books, and readers,” and widely believed. What we are witness- (Jonathan Cape) Art of the here and now The extraordinary art of the Reformation was underpinned by a new certainty, says James Woodall

The Northern Renaissance: Dürer to Holbein bolism towards individualism, the secular a vivid 1548 woodcut of Luther and three Queen’s Gallery, Buckingham Palace, 2nd nation state and the primacy of trade. major paintings. Of these, Apollo and Diana November to 14th April 2013 The allegorical altarpiece is strikingly (c.1526) is particularly arresting. The shim- realistic—Cranach and Luther surely looked mering curls of Diana’s hair, the pearly lumi- In a church in the German city of Weimar like that in old age and were close friends— nescence of her skin and Apollo’s sinuous, hangs Europe’s most uncompromising paint- and remarkably certain. If it weren’t so unidealised body show an artist intent on ing. An altarpiece by Lucas Cranach the exquisitely painted, it would almost be crude painting humans as they are. The work is as Elder, completed in the mid-1550s by his son, propaganda. Such certainty, arrived at in fresh as the day it was painted, and as sexy. it is a stunningly realised, turbulent allegory the mid-16th century after the Protestant Albrecht Dürer, not an avowed Lutheran of Christian salvation. A jet of blood arches split, underpins a new exhibition opening in like Cranach, aimed to depict the real, the from the torso wound of a crucified Jesus on November at the Queen’s Gallery. here and now, even if his topics were often to the head of Cranach himself. Next to him, The show brings together German, Neth- biblical. Born in Nuremberg a year before holding open a Bible, stands Martin Luther. erlandish and French paintings, prints, Cranach, in 1471, Dürer had huge artis- The picture is pregnant with meaning. drawings and other objets from the late 15th tic influence in northern Europe. He was a The Reformation, launched in Wittenberg to the late 16th centuries. Never before has driven printmaker and he knew how to mar- by Luther in 1517, is here in Europe to stay, it the Royal Collection been mined to narrate ket his images right across the Holy Roman states. By the time the triptych was finished, such a compelling combination of processes: Empire—hence his renown: he was effec- the continent’s theological alignments were the end of Catholic hegemony north of the tively an artist-merchant. altering forever. The south, which included Alps, and, in art there, a shift from required Dürer’s famous woodcuts, such as A German-speaking Bavaria and Austria, had representations of the conventionally sacred Knight, Death and the Devil (1513) and St Jer- chosen to side with the Vatican, accepting to super-detailed delineations of the human ome in his Study (1514), are the equivalent of age-old papal absolutism and the tenets of and the real. late medieval photography, dense with the a literal Christianity. Switzerland and most Though there’s nothing in this show as paraphernalia of legend, but also busy with of the northwest—France didn’t “reform”— extreme as the Weimar altarpiece, Cra- topographical detail and revelling in the ordi- were galloping away from religious sym- nach the Elder’s mastery can be seen in nary. Look, in St Jerome, at the scissors, 86 arts & books prospect november 2012 II E lizabe th y Queen M ajes t y © 2012, He r 2012, © T r us t C o lle ct i n yal R o Clockwise from above left, Dürer’s Saint Jerome in his study (1514) , his portrait of Burkhard of Speyer (1506), Cranach’s Apollo and Diana (c.1526), “An artist intent on painting humans as they are”

slippers, and a dog contentedly asleep—next semantically tug us southwards, the imagery figures from Erasmus to Mary Tudor with to a lion. Dürer’s advanced sense of form and of this northern art is darker, more interior previously unparalleled sophistication. texture through line alone was revolutionary and more forensic than anything found in This exhibition is especially rich in Hol- at the time, but he was a brilliant painter too, the Quattrocento. beins. In painting after painting, chalk as his 1506 portrait Burkhard of Speyer dem- Of the painters on display at the Queen’s drawing after chalk drawing, his drive for onstrates. With his nuanced melancholy, Gallery, perhaps the most celebrated, in Brit- immaculate verisimilitude reveals itself as uneven features and unostentatious apparel, ain at least, is Augsburg-born Hans Holbein something of a miracle. Portraits of Derich Burkhard seems both new and utterly settled the Younger. Though the detail of his biogra- Born (1533) and William Reskimer (1532-3) in the world—a post-religious man. phy is patchy, he probably spent 1518 in Italy in particular display the material determina- Despite the “northern” tag in the exhibi- and was clearly influenced by Renaissance tion of the new humanism at its most confi- tion’s title, it would be nonsensical to try and fresco painters there. He was to become one dent. Holbein identified these men’s power assess these productions without looking of the greatest ever portraitists by, later, being not in what an institution—the church, say, south, to Italy. Dürer painted Burkhard in in the right place at the right time: 1520s and or a king—thought they should be, but in Venice, where he evidently drank in the city’s 1530s Tudor London. An opulent, aggres- who they knew they were. subtle contours and light, and no northern sive court craved images of itself and Holbein The Reformation was of course fraught painter of the period could plausibly have became its chronicler. He had painted many with violence. Destruction of religious art been unaffected by the ItalianR enaissance. religious scenes but in his full maturity left across Protestant Europe was widespread; a But while the word “Renaissance” might such preoccupations behind, catching key need for images was, under the new think- prospect november 2012 arts & books 87 ing, considered fetishistic, an impediment Netherlands, the destruction was called the ing age, but deeply disputatious. Of the 140 to Luther’s call for “faith alone.” Icono- “Beeldenstorm” or “image storm.” exhibits here perhaps the oddest is a theolog- clasm in the late 1520s in reforming Basel, Countless masterpieces and artefacts ical book, Henry VIII’s original Assertio sep- for a time Erasmus’s and Holbein’s adoptive nonetheless survived. Beautiful works by tem sacramentorum, printed in 1521. Henry city, was echoed in Henry VIII’s suppres- the lesser-known Netherlandish Joos van founded the Royal Collection. He ignited sion in the 1530s of the English monasteries, Cleve and Jan Gossaert and the Frenchman the English Reformation. But he actually during which vast quantities of ecclesiasti- François Clouet, among many others, adorn remained a Catholic. His text? A refutation cal treasures were lost: statuary, paintings, this exhibition. There are also silver cups, of Luther. The paradox is delightful, as is stained glass. Radical departure from the miniatures, armour and two glorious tapes- this entire astonishing show. old religion came, everywhere, with much tries from 1500. James Woodall is an associate editor of vandalism. Over the summer of 1566 in the It was an intensely creative, image-mak- Prospect The month in books Black holes, environmental catastrophe and disease—this month’s selection is not for the faint hearted, says Olivia Laing

This is not a crop of books to make one feel is alert to discrepancies and exaggerations from his microscopic, thrilling analysis of sanguine about the future. From Alzheim- of all kinds. It’s characteristic of her genial the unsteady architecture of Ford Maddox er’s disease and climate change to black style that while examining the sticky history Ford’s The Good Soldier, a book I’ve never holes capable of swallowing up entire galax- of Captain John Smith (he of Pocahontas before felt moved to open. ies, there seems to be an unending phalanx fame), she observes that while he probably of potential disasters ahead. Fortunately wasn’t a liar, his pantaloons did on one nota- How life goes wrong and for the anxious reader, these are also books ble occasion literally burst into flames. how we lose it is also the with an infectious faith in the diagnostic subject of Barbara King- and curative powers of narrative itself. Lepore may be a skilled solver’s new novel. Flight historian, but she lacks Behaviour (Faber, £18.99) Take The Robber of Mem- the farsightedness of tackles the grim inevitabil- ories: A River Journey Caleb Scharf. In Gravi- ity of climate change with through Colombia (Granta, ty’s Engines: The Other delicacy and insight, par- £16.99). In 2011, travel Side of Black Holes (Allen ticularly illuminating issues of poverty and writer Michael Jacobs voy- Lane, £20), Scharf pro- class. When millions of monarch butter- aged up the Magdalena, vides a virtuosic history of flies appear on her father-in-law’s moun- the once beautiful and now the universe, explaining in simple terms tain in rural Tennessee, Dellarobbia at first grievously polluted setting such advanced concepts as event horizons, believes she’s seen a sign from God. In fact, for Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s famous novel white dwarfs and general relativity. While the butterflies have strayed from their usual Love in the Time of Cholera, and still a dump- his intention is to explain the creative role migration route, driven north by rising tem- ing ground for bodies in the nation’s long black holes appear to play in shaping gal- peratures. As scientists, tree huggers and civil war. A year earlier, Jacobs had encoun- axies, he also serves as an appealing tour TV crews surge up the mountain, tensions tered Marquez at a Colombian party. The guide to the eerie, infinite corridors of the begin to simmer in Dellarobbia’s own trou- writer was already displaying symptoms cosmos in which we reside. bled family. of dementia, a disease that had likewise Climate change is a tricky proposition destroyed the memories of both Jacobs’s According to Julian Barnes, for a novelist, particularly if she wants— parents. As he inches towards the river’s the best way to understand as Kingsolver evidently does—to be accu- source, Jacobs reflects movingly on the this messy and sometimes rate without reducing her audience to importance of remembering and bearing frightening place is by way tearful despair. She solves the first prob- witness, particularly in a nation so acutely of the novel. In Through the lem by inserting an attractive Caribbean affected by violence and war. Window: Seventeen Essays climate scientist into the mix. The appeal- (and one short story) (Vin- ingly named Ovid Byron takes on didac- Making sense of a disor- tage, £10.99), he asserts that tic duties, presenting a terrifying vision of dered and contested past “novels tell us the most truth about life: what melting ice caps and burning deserts, while is also a theme of Harvard it is, how we live it, how we enjoy it and value Dellarobbia provides a much needed shot history professor Jill Lep- it, how it goes wrong, and how we lose it.” of positivity. It’s both touching and inspir- ore’s engrossing The Story Barnes is best known as a fiction writer, ing to witness this bright, barely-educated of America: Essays on Ori- but as this peachy collection attests, he backwoods mama get to grips with the gins (Princeton University remains a devastatingly brilliant critic challenges facing the planet. The result is Press, £19.95). “Politics,” too. It’s hard to think of a writer so adept a master class in fiction’s ability to tell us she notes beadily, “is a story about the rela- at conveying the sheer pleasures of read- where we are. I only hope someone thinks tionship between the past and the future; ing. He dips through the centuries, moving to give a copy to the international corpus of history is a story about the relationship lightly from Penelope Fitzgerald to Lorrie climate change deniers, before there’s no between the past and the present.” Neither Moore by way of Kipling’s motoring reports world left for the novel to portray. is exactly straightforward to tell, and Lep- and the infelicities of Lydia Davis’s trans- Olivia Laing is the author of “To the River” ore’s elegant account of America’s genesis lation of Madame Bovary. I’m still reeling (Canongate) 88 prospect november 2012 Fiction Ludmilla Petrushevskaya

Ludmilla Petrushevskaya is one of Russia’s collection, There Once Lived a Girl Who greatest living writers. Her previous short Seduced her Sister’s Husband, and he story collection, There Once Lived a Woman Hanged Himself: Love Stories, which will Who Tried to Kill her Neighbour’s Baby, was be published in May. In an interview with a 2009 New York Times bestseller and was one of her translators, Sally Laird, named as a book of the year by New Yorker Petrushevskaya said, “Russia is a land of critic James Wood. He described it as, “a women Homers; women who tell their stories orally, revelation—it is like reading late-Tolstoy fables, just like that, without inventing anything. They’re with all of the master’s directness and brutal extraordinarily talented storytellers. I’m just a

e never came by invitation—he never received after the divorce he was assigned an attic room with a ruined one. He simply announced himself (often with a ceiling and exposed plumbing—imagine the smell. All he could lengthy insult) through the door, then pleaded do after the divorce was read, so he found refuge in public librar- his way inside. At the dinner table he yelled and ies, where he drank tap water and cadged leftovers from the caf- pontificated, spat out his food and bared his eteria. Abandoned by his wife and children, he longed for hot onlyH tooth, wishing both to stuff himself and to have his say. He food. On pension days his biggest splurge was a hot dog and spoke in non sequiturs, always in a terrible hurry, never explain- sometimes one or even two hamburgers. Also on those days he’d ing anything. He must have believed it was the prerogative of an call on his acquaintances, under the pretext of paying back erudite man like himself to speak any way he wanted; didn’t he a debt—thereby giving them reason to have him stay for din- spend all his unfilled and unpaid days in reading rooms, work- ner. The next day he’d be broke again and would go back to the ing on some obscure bibliography or biography? Just wait till same houses for another loan, or wait outside people’s offices, it’s done, he predicted to his poor hosts and their guests; he’d ambushing them with requests for money to buy medicine. throw in some dirty laundry, some famous names, and voilà— That’s how he lived for a long time, but things do change for we’d have a bestseller on our hands. But first he needed to fin- someone like A.A., too. A fellow demagogue from the smok- ish this magnum opus with the help, he said, of foreign grants ing room advised him about free health resort packages for and lecture fees that never materialized. In the meantime, he the poor, and even helped him fill out an application at the lectured gratis in the smoking rooms of public libraries, where office of social aid.T hat was over a year ago. Finally A.A. over- he showed up empty-handed, with no tobacco or matches of his heard someone bragging about going to a health resort for free. own. Hence, the awkward giggling and convoluted openings— Ready to fight for his rights, he rushed to the social aid office “God has nothing to do with religion” or “All politicians want is and was informed that his request had been granted and that to be re-elected; may I bother you for a smoke?” he had been expected at the resort two days ago. The woman The people who knew him feared he might ask to stay the at the counter blinked cleverly. He understood they were send- night; women of the house shared the expression, “I could sense ing him in the off-season, in the worst weather, when no pay- he was on the verge of staying over.” Besides, he was old. (That ing customer would go. He screamed and stomped his feet, but didn’t stop him from announcing into someone’s intercom, once outside he reconsidered. October wasn’t so bad. Pushkin “Let me in; it’s up!”) When he stayed, everything needed to be liked October. And if you think about it, what is a health resort? washed, aired, and dry-cleaned. Officially he was not homeless: Three meals a day, plus he could take extra bread to keep him © “There Once Lived a Girl Who Seduced her Sister’s Husband, and he full at night. At the thought of all that food, he began to salivate Hanged Himself: Love Stories” by Ludmilla Petrushevskaya, translated by uncontrollably. He ran back to the library cafeteria to look for a Anna Summers, will be published by Penguin Classics in May leftover piece of bread. prospect november 2012 Fiction 89 g lon mark ©

First stop: his old flophouse, the scene of many battles. He She shrugged her plump shoulders and sent him to the mys- spent the night there. In the morning he exchanged his smelly tery section. A.A. yelled louder: the library needed more books, rags for some decent secondhand clothing. Then he raided local and he happened to know a certain warehouse where publish- dumpsters for a discarded suitcase and found one, in imitation ers dumped unsold copies. Just give him a truck and he’ll bring leather. He already owned a hat—a knit beret. He tricked the back hundreds of books! The librarian seemed indifferent to attendant at the library cloakroom for a scarf. “I must have the news: she didn’t have a truck, and besides, people on vaca- left it here and then forgot... You see, I don’t have a woman to tion wanted light reading, like mysteries and detective stories. look after me, so things get lost...” The woman picked out a At this point an elderly lady interfered. She overheard A.A. green rag that someone must have left ages ago and held it out bragging and asked to take down the address of that mythical with disgust. “This one yours? Was about to throw it out.” A.A. warehouse. As for the library, she agreed: they needed more grabbed the rag imperiously and walked around the corner to serious books for the patrons like Professor (meaning him) and try it on. The green scarf went nicely with his new dark jacket a PhD like herself. Well, almost—her thesis was finished, it was and black beret. Then the shoes: his smoking room buddies waiting on her desk, and she needed only to defend it. “Me too,” suggested he look through the dumpsters near big department A.A. agreed eagerly. “Mine’s also on my desk”—even though he stores, as a lot of people tossed their old shoes there after buy- had no desk. The cute librarian was forgotten; the educated ing new ones. A.A. found a decent-looking pair, a little too big, pair was loudly discussing matters of cultural importance. but that was even better. In the evening he packed his notes Leaving the library, A.A. held the door for the lady, sweeping and a pen (cadged from the post office) into the suitcase.T here her off her feet with such chivalry. were eight days remaining at the health resort and two weeks They walked into the park, inhaling the smell of damp leaves before his pension. and wood smoke, and sat down on a bench under an ancient At dawn A.A. left his vile room and boarded the train with- tree. “To walk the blessed path,” A.A. pontificated, “one must out a ticket. For the entire trip he stood next to the exit, shak- give up his possessions—only then can one reach the sacred ing from fear and cold. Arriving at the resort, he found every- door; but what happens if one doesn’t own anything? Will the thing still closed. He dozed in the lobby, sitting up, like a gen- door open for him?” She listened to his blabbering, taking it in tleman, until the cafeteria opened for breakfast. Once it did, gratefully. They almost missed lunch. Again he gobbled down he stuffed himself with kasha and bread, swallowed three cups his portion and all the bread on the table; he asked the server of sweet tea, and then stormed the little library. Straight as if he could move to Tamara Leonardovna’s table, but appar- a rod, with his pen and writing paper in hand and his green ently there was no room. Ready for another walk, he waited scarf draped over one shoulder, he began by loudly demand- impatiently for her to finish, but the lady excused herself—she ing works by Spengler and Kierkegaard from the cute librarian. needed rest. A.A. went to his room, too, and stretched out on 90 Fiction prospect november 2012 the clean sheets, almost crying with joy. and Tamara, barely awake, hurries with his eggs. He continues After dinner A.A. stuffed his pockets with bread, and to show up uninvited at people’s houses, but now he holds him- together they walked over to the stream. Again she listened self more assertively and makes frequent allusions to his wife, meekly; this time he expanded on Francis of Assisi, who had “so-called Tamara,” and her undefended thesis on Charles walked the blessed path and considered every insult God’s gift. Dickens. Back in his room he made a mess of his squashed bread slices, Eggs is the luxury that graces their breakfast table the first to his roommate’s displeasure. A.A. headed off the impending three days after pension, but A.A. is shaved and dressed in eve- confrontation by running out into the hall, where people were rything clean, and Tamara walks around in practically new watching television. He flopped on a couch and proceeded to winter boots that A.A. fished out from a dumpster. A.A. often watch one programme after the next, annoying everyone with criticises her appearance: “So-called Tamara, go fix your hair!” vitriolic comments and wild laughter. Tamara crawls around her little apartment, always thinking about the next meal for this parasite. Where did he come from, “ She holds out the photo with helpless like all parasites and parasitic like all helpless people? And yet he criticises and instructs, while she has no strength a trembling hand, but he left to look after him. At the end of the day she drags herself to the food market to pick up from the floor squashed veggies and pushes it away: ‘What does fruit for his dinner. She feels ashamed in the presence of some that have to do with me? imaginary friends and nemeses, but she does have a justification: a certain old photo, the holiest of her secrets. What’s wrong with you?’” In the evening he comes home, gobbles down her vegetable stew in a second, and starts flailing his arms again, this time Unforgettable days rolled by. The happy couple took walks thrashing the very personage whose bibliography or biogra- in plain view, ignoring giggles. A.A. successfully campaigned phy he’s been putting together for ten years. The man was a for a transfer to Tamara Leonardovna’s table—he simply moved fraud, it turns out, and Tamara says, “I told you so,” and they there, and one of the enraged ladies switched tables in protest. squawk some more and then watch television, exchanging acer- What really bothered the others was Tamara’s age (which they bic comments. found out from the director’s secretary). She was seventy-five— That night he cannot stay asleep. He wakes up in tears. Tam- fourteen years older than he was! It was practically statutory ara Leonardovna tucks him in and blows on his bald forehead, rape, the resort ladies decided. Eventually public opinion ruled as she would have done for her baby if he had lived. And now for that this A.A. was simply looking for a perch, for someone— Tamara’s secret: she never believed the baby had died at birth! anyone—to take him in; for what kind of prince charming was No, you see, here was her son, with an altered date of birth; he he—without hair, teeth, or a roof over his head? Somehow they was back to sleep. There is a photo of him, the baby’s father, knew everything about him. A.A. couldn’t keep his voice down that she once thought she’d destroyed. to save his life. But Tamara didn’t want to know. When, a week It turned up mysteriously in the folder with her yellowing after they left the resort, one of the ladies called to check in on thesis. It’s the same face as A.A.’s, only younger. Tamara at home, A.A. picked up the phone. Like small children She holds out the photo with a trembling hand, but he they were unable to part. pushes it away: “What does that have to do with me? What’s Now they are living together in Tamara’s little apartment, wrong with you? Look at the date: I wasn’t even born yet.” He away from prying eyes. A.A. eats regularly, before and after vis- goes back to watching their tiny old television, and she puts iting the library. Tamara keeps house, looks after him, com- away the photo with a whisper: “My little one.” plains often but receives no sympathy; the blessed path is thorny. A.A. now owns two writing pads, which Tamara has pur- chased for him. She wants to have his pension recalculated and to make sure he receives benefits like a free subway pass—he used to beg and fake injuries to be let in. Tamara’s whole family is up in arms about this cohabitation, especially her nephews, who are terrified that the old fools may marry. They cannot deny, though, that Tamara looks fresher, or that she is full of plans and new energy. For example, she has located that mythical book warehouse and now takes books to nursing homes and hospitals, where people cannot afford them. At night they squawk to each other about their day. Tamara complains and recites her grievances, and A.A. doles out advice and admonitions like an austere paterfamilias. Then they go to their beds and read, exchanging notes; in the morning they resume their squawking and arguing. Who knows why this A.A. screams so much—he may be scared of losing her, of finding himself back in the flooded attic. She refuses to marry him, although she did once kiss his hand when he was prostrate with illness. At night A.A. cries and howls with grief, but in the morning he plays boss again, “All right, let’s hear this question that Google can’t answer.” the magazine of new writing

‘An indispensable part of the intellectual landscape’ – Observer

A spectacular gift for the curious mind

Every issue of Granta is a feast of the best new writing from around the world. In our pages you’ll ﬁnd stories, reportage, poetry and photography from the acclaimed and the infamous, the prize- winners and the ones to watch.

This Christmas, buy someone a gift subscription to Granta and receive a 25% discount. Four issues for just £24 – that’s a saving of £26 on the cover price.

Visit granta.com ⁄ prgift or call 0500 004 033

*UDQWD$GB3URVSHFWLQGG Inspiring young minds! AQUILA Children’s Magazine is ideal for boys and girls who want to know the whys and wherefores of everything. “How does a lava lamp work?” “Was there really a curse on Tutankhamun’s tomb?” The magazine starts its young readers on the right track and feeds their interest with factual articles, puzzles and fun-activities that are designed to ignite children’s enthusiasm and creativity. Every monthly issue of AQUILA has a new topic. There’s no celebrity gossip Great or advertorial; instead, children gift for can deepen their interest and 8-12 year WILLIAM understanding of the world around olds DAIDO them. Says Editor Jackie Berry, “We never talk down to our readers, and they love to KLEIN MORIYAMA be part of a magazine that takes them seriously.” New York T o k Y o FILM PH o T o G r APHY Research suggests that one in fi ve primary-aged children fi nds school work too simple, so it is reassuring to know that AQUILA Magazine, which is recommended by educational specialists, will provide challenges for our brightest children. You will not fi nd AQUILA at the newsagents; it is only available by subscription. “Thank you for looking after my son’s brain!” www.aquila.co.uk • 01323 431313

UNTIL 20 jaNUary 2013

Book Now tatE.orG.uk

#kleinmoriyama

Supported by The William Klein + Daido Moriyama Exhibition Supporters Group

William Klein School Out, Dakar 1963

The generalist by Didymus Enigmas & puzzles Raiders of the lost arcs Ian Stewart “There’s the sacrificial plaza!” yelled Brunnhilde, as she teetered on a narrow rope bridge above a roaring cascade. “I can see the puzzle plaques of Tri-Yangul,” Colorado Smith called back. “I was expecting more of a challenge,” he said as they reached the far side of the chasm. They both stared at the plaques: 12 equilateral triangles inscribed with arcs.

“We have to slide them to make a six-pointed star,” Smith reminded his sidekick. “No rotation or reflection, OK?” “Don’t worry, I read the death-glyphs at the entrance to the cavern. How about this?”

Smith shook his head. “Right shape, wrong arrangement. The arcs represent the Serpents of Retribution! According to the Cosmogony of Eekwi-Latrul, retribution ACROSS 36 Have a reciprocal connection 8 Freethinker in religious is endless. But some of your 1 17th century aristocratic (11) matters (9) hooligan (8, hyphened) 37 Follows on from (9, two 9 Pioneer of mass circulation snakes have ends. The arcs mustn’t end inside the 5 Keyboard player of bells in a words) journalism, Alfred Charles star—only on its boundary, which represents the tower (12) 38 It blows towards the equator William Harmsworth (11) edge of the hexaverse.” 13 Novelist who wrote Little and is deflected westward by 10 Computerised retailing Lord Fauntleroy (21, three the earth’s rotation (9, two system using barcodes (21, words) words) four words) Help the raiders rearrange their lost arcs. 14 Composer of the Wand of 39 Variation of baccarat (11, 11 Of the nose, attractively Youth suites in 1907 and 1908 three words) turned up at the tip (9) (11, two words) 40 Song in Act 5 of As You Like 12 Essex town on Stane Street; 15 Somewhat slow (9) It (21, seven words) a prosperous mediaeval How to enter weaving centre (10) 16 The traditional central 41 Forgetful shopper’s apathy? market of Paris (9, two (12) 21 Loki’s daughter who presides words) 42 Fine Parian porcelain named over the realm of the dead (3) The generalist prize 17 In the UK, numbers to the after a village on River Earn 23 Between head-counts (11) One winner receives copies of Guignol’s Band and London value of ten to the power of (7) 24 An oven in Govan (3) Bridge by Louis-Ferdinand Céline (Alma Classics, £9.99 and 600 (11) 26 Washington State’s all-time £12.99), which are being published in 18 The digraph æ (3) DOWN favourites? (10) the UK for the first time. 19 Be likely to stay fine for a 1 Area of Islington named 27 Hymn sung at the FA Cup time (7, two words) after the lord of the manor Final since 1927 (11, three Enigmas & puzzles prize 20 Display time in Asda (9, of Barnsbury, in 1757 (11, two words) The winner receives a copy of Are We hyphened) words) 28 Informer who implicates Getting Smarter? by James R. Flynn many terrorists, say (10) 22 US celluloid toy evolving 2 Hard-hitting satirical BBC (Cambridge University Press, £16.99), from Rose O’Neill’s drawings TV show of 1962/3 (21, six 29 Set of 25 pieces used of cherubs (10, two words) words) in parapsychological which looks at the phenomenon of rising IQ scores in the 21st century and 25 Genus of New World 3 Instrumental compositions experimentation (10, two woodpeckers, the “black by Cavazzoni or Gabrieli, eg words) its effects on society. creepers” (10) (9) 30 Where corn is ground (9, 30 Skimpy wear on air? (9, 4 Inlaid with a mosaic of small hyphened) hyphened) tiles (11) 31 Areas of sea frozen over (9) Rules 33 Hebrew prophet who 6 Measure of the physical 32 Last truck of a goods train Send your solution to [email protected] or prophesied the forthcoming condition of a new-born baby (9, two words) Crossword/Enigmas, Prospect, 2 Bloomsbury Place, London, destruction of Jerusalem (7) (10, two words) 34 Welsh-speaking market town WC1A 2QA. Include your email and postal address for prize 35 In falconry, to repair broken 7 Lines on a map joining places in Ceredigion, named after St feathers of a hawk (3) of equal gradient (9) David’s first cousin (9) administration. All entries must be received by 2nd November. Winners will be announced in our December issue. Last month’s solutions Solutions across: 10 Tim Baillie 12 EMU 13 Reuben 14 Joanna 15 Lamaserai 16 Andy 17 Dani King 18 Hoc Last month’s winners 19 Yarn-dyed 20 Ed McKeever 23 East London 26 Umber 27 Etienne Stott 33 Chris Hoy 34 Scott Brash 36 Laura Trott 39 Ben Ainslie 40 Meows 41 Lebanon 42 Bradley 46 Copeland 47 Anna Watkins 51 Bellman The generalist: David Nash, Coleford 52 Peter Kennaugh Enigmas & puzzles: Norma Brown, Worcester Solutions down: 1 Nicola Adams 2 Gila River 3 Old lag 4 Ben Maher 5 Jessica Ennis 6 Murray 7 Arbitral 8 Dujardin 9 Pendleton 11 Bondi 21 Czech 22 Vetch 24 Sassoon 25 Oat 28 Egyptian 29 Outlier 30 Taras 31 Pitta 32 Essive 35 Jade Jones 37 Rowsell 38 Oneida 39 Brownlee 43 Diktat 44 Farah 45 Kafka 48 Aune 49 Nagy 50 Yew Download a PDF of this page at www.prospect-magazine.co.uk The Prospect list Our pick of the best public talks and events

Sunday 4th Mall, London, SW1, 6:30pm, £12, 020 Theatre, Old Building, Aldwych, WC2, Thursday 22nd Massive: the Particle that Sparked 7930 3647, www.ica.org.uk 6:30pm, free, 020 7955 6043, www.lse. On Poetry the Greatest Hunt in Science ac.uk Glyn Maxwell, writer Ian Sample, author and journalist Thursday 15th London Review Bookshop, Bury Place, Manchester Science Festival, The John The Face of King Tut Monday 19th London WC1, 7pm, £7, 020 7269 9030, Rylands Library, Manchester Sir Christopher Frayling, academic Curator’s Talk and Private View: www.lrbshop.co.uk University, Deansgate, 2:30pm, free, University College London, J Z Young Pre-Raphaelites 0161 606 0125, www. lecture theatre, Gower St, London, WC1, Alison Smith, curator Saturday 24th manchestersciencefestival.com 6:30pm, free, 020 7679 4138, www. Tate Britain, Millbank, London, SW1, Modernism Series: Slavoj Zizek events.ucl.ac.uk 6:30pm, £20, 020 7887 8888, www. Will Self, writer; Slavoj Zizek, Thursday 8th The Dark Charisma of Adolf Hitler tate.org.uk philosopher Byron Society Lecture: Byron and Laurence Rees, historian Southbank Centre, Queen Elizabeth the Age of Sensation London School of Economics, Old Wednesday 21st Hall, Belvedere Rd, SE1, 7:30pm, £15, Jonathan Bate, academic Noah’s Ark Series: Surviving the 020 7960 4200, www.southbankcentre. School of Advanced Study, Senate The list is expanding Century co.uk House, Malet St, WC1, 6pm, free, 020 Chair: Vivienne Parry, journalist. 7862 8000, www.events.sas.ac.uk online. For regular updates, visit Speakers: Susan Canney, ecologist; Wednesday 28th www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ Martha Kearney, journalist; Richard What Can Governments Do to Tuesday 13th listings Kirby, marine biologist; Helen Improve National Education Should Religious Freedom Include Meredith, conservationist Systems? the Right to Offend? To place events in the list Zoological Society of London, Huxley Charles Clarke, former politician Paul Diamond, lawyer t: 020 7255 1344, f: 020 7255 1279 Building, ZSL Conference Centre, University College London, Sir Ambrose The Michaelhouse Centre, St Michael’s [email protected] Regent’s Park, London, NW1, 7pm, free, Fleming lecture theatre, Torrington Church, Trinity St, Cambridge, 1pm, Send December events by 2nd 020 7611 2222, www.wellcomecollection. Place, London, WC1, 6pm, free, 020 free, 01223 309 167, www.michaelhouse. November org 7679 8584, www.events.ucl.ac.uk org.uk Georgia to Afghanistan The Political Diary To attend events John Pilkington, explorer and writer Chris Mullin, former politician; Ruth Wednesday 14th Always confirm details in advance and Lecture theatre A, Shackleton Building, Winstone, editor The Trouble with Artists’ Brands reserve a place if necessary. Prices Highfield campus, University of The National Theatre, Southbank, Chair: Sarah Thornton, writer listed are standard; there may be Southampton, 7:30pm, £10, 020 7591 London, SE1, 6pm, £4, 020 7452 3000, Institute of Contemporary Arts, The concessions 3000, www.rgs.org www.nationaltheatre.org.uk

CLASSIFIED Menton, O’Donoghue Côte d’Azur Books Wanted, to buy (40 mins from Nice) Pretty two PHILOSOPHY & bedroom house, sleeps four. Well SOCIAL SCIENCE BOOKS -equipped kitchen and large sitting Fair prices paid room. Set in grounds of 1860’s town dating4grownups Will travel to view/buy villa. Pool. Charming courtyard with A lemon trees and views of the Bay of Menton and old town. 10 minute Private consultations and dating introductions for the discerning O’Donoghue Books walk to covered market, beaches and bus and train station. Off street Hay-on-Wye parking available. Booking now for 2013. over 40’s, with no upper age limit. 01497 821153 London/Home Counties, South Tel: 07900 916729 Email: [email protected] [email protected] 4(%7%%+!$6%24&).!,! 7sPDF Coast & East Anglia. www.mentonsejour.com Please call David, who is the WE BUY AND SELL www.mentonsejour.com ‘Matchmaker Extraordinary’ LANGUAGE BOOKS on 01728 635064 or 07986 213120 FOREIGN, CELTIC, www.dating4grownups.co.uk ENGLISH C C. L. Hawley From libraries to single items M Academic books bought and sold Marijana Dworski Books For information about Presteigne, Powys, Y classified advertising LD8 2LA, U.K Literary Criticism, HiDating.6x1.inddstory, 1 contact Dan Jefferson31/1/12 12:31:41 CM Politics etc. Browse and buy Tel: (+44) 01544 267300 online or contact us with [email protected] [email protected] MY HS Ad (30 x 88) 6/2/12 11:03 Page 1 books for sale. 0207 255 1281 www.dworskibooks.com CY Who will cherish your pets, care for your home, baffle the CMY www.clhawley.co.uk burglars and reduce your insurance premium? Tel: 01756 792380 K ®

24 hr brochure line 01296 630730 or www.homesitters.co.uk We stay when you’re away Latest Titles from Zed Books

Pb ISBN 9781780323251 £16.99 Pb ISBN 9781780320250 £14.99 www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ the-fate-of-sudan anti-porn

Pb ISBN 9781848135574 £14.99 www.zedbooks.co.uk/ paperback/the-end-of-conceit

Pb ISBN 9781848139664 £12.99 Pb ISBN 9781780320069 £18.99 www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ www.zedbooks.co.uk/paperback/ africa-and-the-war-on-drugs reclaiming-public-ownership

Zed Books 7 Cynthia Street, London N1 9JF Tel: 020 7837 4014 [email protected] www.zedbooks.co.uk 96 prospect november 2012 The way we were 200th anniversaries Extracts from memoirs and diaries, chosen by Ian Irvine

Alexander Cockburn writes held in Stratford-upon-Avon about the bicentenary of the in September 1769: French Revolution: “Much noise has been made “‘The prospectus: ‘From 1st about the high price of every April to 15th November in the thing at Stratford. I own I can- Tuileries there will be masques, not agree that such censures games, spectacles designed to are just: it was reasonable that evoke what happened during the Shakespeare’s townsmen should revolution, putting the accent partake of the jubilee as well as on institutional reform, which we strangers did; they as a jubi- marked the progress of parlia- lee of profit, we of pleasure. As mentary democracy.’ This would it lasted but for a few nights, a have made Saint-Just smile, guinea a night for a bed was not given his pithy view that ‘long imposition. Nobody was under- laws are public calamities.’ stood to come there who had not “The French government plenty of money. Towards the end seems to have decided to remem- of the jubilee many of us were not ber a revolution occurring in very good humour, as many between 1789 and 1792: Mira- inconveniencies occurred, partic- beau, Danton and the Girond- ularly there not being carriages ins, who with a little touch-up enough to take us away but in here and there, can be made to detachments, so that those who look like decent moderate social had to wait long tired exceed- democrats of the late 20th cen- ingly. I laughed away spleen by tury. Robespierre, Saint-Just a droll simile: Taking the whole and the great Committee of Pub- of this jubilee, said I, is like eat- lic Safety, who presided over the ing an artichoke entire. We have Terror and saved the Revolution, some fine mouthfuls, but also have not been invited. Lizzy Len- swallow the leaves and the hair, nard has tracked down busts of which are confoundedly diffi- Robespierre and Saint-Just. She President Ford and Queen Elizabeth II dance at the American cult of digestion. After all, how- talked to the keeper of monu- Bicentennial celebrations in 1976 ever, I am highly satisfied with my ments. It turned out to be as dif- artichoke.” ficult as finding a statue of Trotsky in the 16 per cent the Declaration of the Rights Soviet Union.” of Man, and 16 per cent the execution of President Gerald Ford remembers the Louis XVI. Only four per cent mentioned 200th anniversary celebrations of the Patrick Marnham reports from Paris on the Guillotine or the Terror. Again, 33 per signing of the American Declaration of the bicentenary celebrations in Crime cent were unable to recall a single impor- Independence on 4th July 1976: and the Academie Francaise: tant social change introduced by the Rev- “Never in my wildest dreams had I imag- “This year France has invited the whole olution. The only notable Revolutionaries ined that I would be President of the world to celebrate its history. More than cited by more than 12 per cent of the pop- United States on its 200th birthday, and 600 functions have been arranged in eighty ulation were Robespierre and Danton, and Jack Marsh, a formidable historian, had countries. The French government has more than 50 per cent of those questioned been pressing me for the past twenty-three- organised a succession of major interna- could not name even them. Asked which months to honor the occasion in a dignified tional conferences in Paris this year. On French leaders in the last 200 years had and appropriate way. 14th July the Group of Seven will be meet- continued the ideals of the Revolution, 30 “You have to point toward July 4,” he ing here and in the autumn there will be per cent answered ‘General de Gaulle,’ a kept reminding me. “It’s going to be a the European summit during which France tribute which might have surprised him. All momentous event.” The nation’s Centen- will assume the presidency of the Euro- this should be set in the context of another nial celebration in 1876, Marsh explained, pean Community. The French are rightly opinion poll, taken a year ago, which found had been little noticed by President Grant. confident that the world is intrigued by the that 17 per cent of the French people were Indeed, returning to the capital after bicentenary. But what do they themselves in favour of the return of the monarchy. attending a ceremony Concord Bridge in make of the Revolution, 200 years on? French Royalists seem to be more numer- Massachusetts, Grant had penned a note to “If the French have the Revolution in ous than British Republicans, even if they the proprietor of the Concord Inn: “You’ve their bones, they do not necessarily have are less respectable.” got the best whiskey in town.” Grant’s it in their heads. A third of those ques- words must have made the innkeeper proud tioned among 16,000 in a recent opinion James Boswell describes the Shake- of his stock. I hoped that my remarks that poll were unable to mention a single impor- speare Jubilee, a celebration of the historic day—one hundred years later— tant Revolutionary event. Of the rest, 37 bard’s 200th anniversary, organised by would make all Americans proud of their

Couldn’t get into Hurtwood! Left it too late, poor lamb! What a shame! Hurtwood was the Sixth Form of her dreams, the best in the world for the Performing and Creative arts and brilliant academically, too. How she longed to be part of that cosy, inspiring community... but alas, too late... too late.

So don’t delay – contact me now – or scream for the rest of your life! Cosmo Jackson T: 01483 279000 E: [email protected] www.hurtwoodhouse.com