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On Another Planet FABIAN REVIEW The quarterly magazine of the Fabian Society Autumn 2012 / fabians.org.uk / £4.95 ON ANOTHER PLANET Our new poll shows how we can bring politics back down to earth, with Katie Ghose, Peter Kellner, Lisa Nandy and Ed Wallis p8 / Interview: “Opposition politics is about storytelling” Jon Cruddas tells Mary Riddell p14 / Essay: Geoff Mulgan on the long-term economy p18 Contents FABIAN REVIEW Volume 124—No. 3 Leader Andrew Harrop 2 Primary colours Shortcuts Deborah Mattinson 3 How has year two been for Ed? David Lammy 4 Out of the trenches William Davies 5 Policy-making after the crisis Hazel Blears 5 Making our representatives more representative David Walker 6 Beware of zombies James Harkin 7 Heading for the ditch? Cover story Ed Wallis 8 Another planet Peter Kellner 11 Becoming real Katie Ghose 12 Straight talking could get people tuning back in Lisa Nandy 13 Celebrate debate Interview Mary Riddell 14 What’s the story? Policy pitch Victoria Barr 17 A rainy day fund Essay Geoff Mulgan 18 Engaging with the future Books Marcus Roberts 22 The secrets of power 24 Fabian Fringe Guide 26 Fabian Society section FABIAN REVIEW FABIAN SOCIETY Events and Partnerships Local Societies Officer, Fabian Review is the quarterly journal of 11 Dartmouth Street Assistant, Melanie Aplin Deborah Stoate the Fabian Society. Like all publications of London SW1H 9BN the Fabian Society, it represents not the 020 7227 4900 (main) Editorial Finance and Operations collective view of the Society, but only 020 7976 7153 (fax) Head of Editorial, Ed Wallis Head of Finance and Operations, the views of the individual writers. The [email protected] Editorial Assistant, Phil Mutero responsibility of the Society is limited to www.fabians.org.uk Sofie Jenkinson approving its publications as worthy of Media and Communications Fabian Women’s Network consideration within the Labour movement. General Secretary, Manager, Richard Speight Seema Malhotra, Andrew Harrop [email protected] Editor, Ed Wallis Deputy General Secretary, Research Printed by DG3, London E14 9TE Marcus Roberts Senior Researcher, Natan Doron Designed by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Researcher, Rob Tinker Events and Partnerships ISSN 1356 1812 Head of Events and Partnerships, Membership [email protected] Olly Parker Membership Officer, Giles Wright 1 / Volume 124—No. 3 Leader © Kenn Goodall / bykenn.com © Kenn Goodall / bykenn.com Primary colours Rather than interesting ideas, Labour must set out a handful of signature proposals that exemplify how and why it would govern—Andrew Harrop T’S BECOME WELL known that Labour’s solid lead in already amassed. Instead Labour must do two things: re- the opinion polls is down mainly to the backing learn the language of the doorstep and prove it has a plan I of left-leaning former Liberal Democrats. In 2012 for Britain. Ed Miliband has proved he can unite socially liberal, Too few people will vote Labour if the party presents egalitarian voters and that there could be enough of them itself simply an empty vessel for their discontents with a to carry him to Downing Street. shambolic government. Ambivalent voters will only be No doubt if the Lib Dems remove Nick Clegg before won round in sufficient number by a positive alternative 2015 some former supporters will return. But it would and purposeful leadership. This requires Labour to offer take a huge reversal for the Conservatives to end up with substantive promises not just interesting ideas, fascinating a majority. In 2010, after all, they could not win despite a as ‘pre-distribution’, ‘the squeezed middle’ and ‘responsible seven per cent lead over Labour. capitalism’ may be to those of us who attend Westminster Commentators have been slow to catch up with the seminars. electoral maths, but in the year ahead the media will Instead, in the year ahead Labour must set out a have to learn to write of Miliband as a conceivable, even handful of big, signature proposals that exemplify how probable, prime minister. The Labour party however must and why it would govern, what marks it out from the not settle for the script the pundits are busy writing, where coalition and how people’s lives would change. The it limps into office as a minority party dependent on candidates for Labour’s plan include free childcare, a others to govern. national care service, a living wage, a job guarantee Instead in the 12 months ahead Miliband must turn his scheme for the young or a huge housebuilding attention to potentially sympathetic voters he’s failed to programme (each with credible funding plans attached). win so far, and there are plenty of them out there. Fabian Miliband’s model must be 1945 or 1979, when the research found that a quarter of British adults did not vote winning party entered the election with a clear policy Labour in 2010 but are prepared to consider the party programme which captured the public zeitgeist but also next time. Encouragingly, their views on the economy and heralded a rupture with the past. public services are much closer to those of Labour than Alongside that, Labour needs to reassess how it Conservative supporters. But only one-in-three of this group looks and feels. Today its spokespeople still sound like currently back Labour despite Miliband’s lead in the polls. middle-ranking ministers, the parliamentary party a tribe Winning a convincing working majority will depend of professional politicians. To reconnect Labour must on attracting more of them over, especially two types of reimagine itself as an insurgent force speaking for the ‘Labour-ambivalent’: people who didn’t vote at all in 2010 people, not a political caste speaking at them, as our new and floating voters who liked David Cameron but not his YouGov poll makes clear elsewhere in this magazine. party. Ed Miliband and those around him understand that the These potential supporters are the least ideological practice of Labour politics must change. Now to make it of voters so the answer is not a turn to the right, a move happen he must order his MPs to get out of Westminster, which would simply alienate the support Miliband has organise locally, listen better and speak ‘human’. 2 / Fabian Review Shortcuts Smith – having started on that downward explain his stronger performance amongst path, continued into freefall, while the more women voters, who tend to place greater successful ones – Michael Howard and David premium on these qualities when judging Cameron – began to recover. Ed Miliband’s a leader. As might be expected for a Labour favourability ratings through his first year leader, Ed is ahead on ‘putting the interests followed this familiar pattern, dropping of working people first’. from +9 per cent to -17 per cent. The critical However, the poll reveals two striking HOW HAS YEAR TWO question now is whether he has managed to findings. The first is that the highest score BEEN FOR ED? reverse the trend. for all three party leaders when the public Ed Miliband has made headway At first sight, the data is reasonably are asked to rate them against the most in polls this year but needs to set out encouraging. Although Miliband’s year has salient leadership criteria is ‘none of the been mixed, and he suffered a reputational above’. It is the battle to be the least disliked his stall beyond Westminster dip in January, he has made an admirable rather than the most popular. Ed is winning —Deborah Mattinson recovery and a poll of polls shows a small this battle but he now needs to move in to a improvement year-on-year. At the time of more positive place. writing, the most current poll, ICM for The Guardian shows the favourability deficit Fewer than half say that 2012 has This time last year, my BritainThinks’ reduced to -13 per cent. And he is consistently colleague, Ben Shimshon, and I wrote a polling ahead of David Cameron who has been a good year for themselves piece for the conference Fabian Review moved into an entrenched negative position. and their families. Almost a third say where we identified year two as a critical But the devil is in the detail. Our recent that it has been a bad year year in the life of the opposition and its survey has repeated questions first asked leader. We pointed out that, whatever their a year ago, rating each leader against key popularity when they first took office, all attributes. Cameron ‘wins’ on being a good The second observation is that, while leaders of the opposition since Tony Blair communicator, and on being decisive. He the Westminster Village scrutinises and have taken a similar, downward trajectory in also leads on ‘does what he believes to celebrates (or bemoans) small changes up their first year in the job. be right, even when those decisions are or down, voters are much more consistent. In year two, the least successful unpopular’. By contrast, Miliband’s strengths Repeating these rating questions year-on- candidates – William Hague and Iain Duncan lie in empathy and listening – results that year shows no significant change for either leader. People are slow to judge and even slower to change their minds. Few initiatives “Miliband’s strengths lie in empathy and listening” from either side have cut through. Q. Please select up to three characteristics which you think apply most to Ed Miliband More in depth qualitative research explains why. Most voters still do not know August 2011 June 2012 what either leader stands for. Cameron has failed to convey his mission beyond dealing with the deficit (and he is not seen to have 36% 35% succeeded at that).
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