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Domestic Trends to the Year 2015: Forecast for the United States

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Domestic Trends to the Year 2015: Forecast for the United States DOMESTIC TRENDS TO THE YEAR 2015: FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES Demography The Economy Resources Education Society Technology Military Science Geopolitics and Threat A Report Prepared under an Interagency Agreement by the Federal Research Division, Library of Congress July 199 1 Project Manager: David L. Osborne Authors: Boris Bohun-Chudyniv L y Burnham Glenn Curtis Amy Knight Da vid Mc Cla ve David L. Osborne Andrea M. Savada Eric D. Solsten Federal Research Division Library of Congress Washington, D. C. 20540-4840 Tel: (202) 707-3900 Fax: (202) 707-3920 E-Mail: [email protected] Homepage: http://lc web.loc.go v/rr/frd/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The study you are about to read is the product of many analysts' research and study. Those analysts are identified as authors of the respective papers constituting the work. This project concerns the prediction of future United States domestic trends to the year 2015. It has offered everyone an opportunity to think creatively and project into the future. While this is a difficult task, it is nevertheless exciting and challenging. We have all learned and profited from the experience. A product of this magnitude cannot be accomplished without the assistance of many other talented people who are not identified elsewhere. The Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress has many such talented people and the editor would like to take this opportunity to thank them for their many hours of hard work and assistence. First, to David Cabitto, our graphics artist, for his skill in compiling the many excellent charts and graphs. The graphics add much to the clarity of the text. Next, to Marilyn Majeska and her staff, for reading the manuscript and making valuable suggestions. Her skilled eye and careful reading are greatly appreciated for making the text more lucid and precise. We gratefully acknowledge the people who helped with the inevitable complexities of automation, Steven Cranton and Sara Arason. Our work was saved on more than one occasion through their efforts. Louis R. Mortimer, Chief of the Federal Research Division, is to be thanked for his encouragement and support in this project. His optimism maintained many of our spirits when they might have sunk under the weight of deadlines. Finally, to those people who have assisted in other, no less important ways, many thanks. This work could never have been accomplished in a timely fashion without their help. David L. Osborne, Editor July 1991 CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS INTRODUCTION DEMOGRAPHY OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2015 Ly Burnham KEY JUDGMENTS: DEMOGRAPHY INTRODUCTION POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS VITAL STATISTICS Births Deaths Immigration and Outmigration Age Distribution Ethnic Composition REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Regional States Cities HISPANIC POPULATION SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA Implications for the Army SOURCES THE ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2015 Glenn Curtis KEY JUDGMENTS: THE ECONOMY INTRODUCTION STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY MANAGEMENT AND THE WORK FORCE ENTERPRISE STRUCTURE FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT CONDITIONS THE UNITED STATES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY THE MILITARY AND CIVILIAN ECONOMIES UNRESOLVED ISSUES CONCLUSION SOURCES THE UNITED STATES RESOURCE PICTURE IN 2015 David McClave KEY JUDGMENTS: RESOURCES INTRODUCTION FOOD AND WATER ENERGY Oil Natural Gas Coal Uranium Oil Shale Renewable Energy Resources NONFUEL MINERALS STRATEGIC AND CRITICAL MATERIALS iii Chromium Titanium Platinum Group Metals (PGM) Cobalt Manganese RESOURCES FOR EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ELECTRONIC METALS NONCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES: "The Global Commons" SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS SOURCES 4. AMERICAN EDUCATION IN 2015 Andrea M. Savada KEY JUDGMENTS: EDUCATION OVERVIEW THE SCHOOL OF THE FUTURE Choice Decentralization Curriculum National Tests Achievement Levels National Teacher Certification Multiculturalism Tracking New Technologies NON-ACADEMIC SERVICES Health and Social Services Kindergarten and Pre-School Programs OTHER INNOVATIONS Expanded School DayIYear-round School ApprenticeshiplIntern/Service Programs CONCLUSION APPENDIX A: Education: The Japanese Approach APPENDIX B: General Educational Development Certificates SOURCES 5. AMERICAN SOCIETY IN 2015 Eric D. Solsten KEY JUDGMENTS: SOCIETY INTRODUCTION SOCIAL STRUCTURE Family Generational Differences Class/Race/Gender Class Race Gender SOCIAL WELFARE Pensions Health Care Values Religion Lifestyles POLITICS Generations at Odds Regional and Interest Politics CONCLUSION SOURCES 6. TECHNOLOGY Boris Bohun-Chudyniv KEY JUDGMENTS: TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION Definition Reinventing the Camel GENESIS OF TECHNOLOGY (THE SCI-TECH ENGINE) LIMITS TO TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY (METATREND--THE LARGE PICTURE) TRENDS AND COMBINATIONS GENERAL TRENDS PROBLEMS CAUSED BY ACCELERATING PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY ISSUES FOR THE MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS RESULTING FROM ADVANCES IN THE PHYSICAL SCIENCES TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS RESULTING FROM ADVANCES IN INFORMATION PROCESSING TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS RESULTING FROM ADVANCES IN LIFE SCIENCES SOME POSSIBLE PROJECTIONS FOR 2015-2020 FOR SAMPLE TECHNOLOGIES SOURCES 7. UNITED STATES MILITARY SCIENCE IN 2015 Amy Knight KEY JUDGMENTS STATE OF THE ART TODAY THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT The Operational Continuum Joint and Combined Operations AirLand Battle and AirLand Battle-Future Nuclear War Doctrine NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS AND OBJECTIVES IN 2015 Potential Impact of Arms Control NUCLEAR WAR IN 2015 CONVENTIONAL WAR IN 2015 High-Intensity Conflict Mid-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY Conventional Warfare The Nuclear Arena Space TRAINING AND COMMAND Manpower and Force Structure Command and Control TRENDS AND FINDINGS SOURCES 8. GEOPOLITICS AND THREAT IN 2015 David L. Osborne KEY JUDGMENTS INTRODUCTION IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS IN WORLD GEOPOLITICS THE UNITED STATES AND STRATEGIC THINKING CONCLUSION SOURCES CONCLUSION List of Figures List of Tables INTRODUCTION It is abundantly clear to most researchers that the United States and the developed world are well into a period of transition that is generating a great deal of turbulence, both domestically and globally. Technology is transforming virtually every aspect of world society and effecting changes in developmental trends. While it is impossible to predict the future with any certainty, it is altogether appropriate for the U.S. Army to be concerned with future studies and forecasting. Twenty-five years ago the United States was coming to grips with the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The population was predominantly white and the principal minority group was black, constituting approximately 10 percent of the total. The percentages of the Asian and Hispanic populations were far lower. The American economy towered over all others in the world. The dollar denominated all international trade, domestic oil production met most of the nation's needs, and American schools were seeing the results of the science and mathematics curriculum instituted as a result of the launching of Sputnik in 1957. Although the debate about the involvement in Vietnam was becoming increasingly strident, there was no "Vietnam syndrome" because no one would know the outcome of the conflict for nine more years and much more time would pass before Americans would formulate any general opinion about it. In fact, in 1966 the United States was well into the federal effort aimed at creating the "Great Society." Many of the nation's citizens believed America could have both guns and butter: the greatest military machine and the greatest social reform effort the world had ever seen. During this time the international system was well defined and predicated on the bi-polar confrontation between the two power blocs that had emerged from World War 11: NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The superpowers focused on Europe and, although the Cuban crisis of 1963 briefly had raised the threat ~f~escalation,the two forces, in the main, contested each other in remote areas of the world through their client-states or proxies. In 1966 the concept of "personal computing" was unknown because automation technology meant the mainframe computer and "dumb" terminals. "Smart" bombs and laser-guided weapons were still in the idea stage, and planners would only forecast their use in the inevitable conflict with the USSR. In 1966 the futurists had their visions, but many visions remain just that. In 1991 Americans are not commuting to work with jet packs strapped to their backs. People still drive automobiles, much to the detriment of the environment. Cities have not been encapsulated under domes, and electricity generated in nuclear power plants is not free of charge. The great social reform experiment has been re- evaluated and many Americans have mixed feelings about the Vietnam experience. The Cold War may have ended, not through superpower warfare, but because of the seeming collapse of communism from its own "inner contradictions." Yet the world still does not live in peace and harmony. What happened? Palmistry artists notwithstanding, no one can predict the future. Humans are limited to analyzing events and identifying trends so that thcy can be prepared for the future and not be too surprised at what takes place. The task in this project has been to identify United States domestic trends for the next 25-year period, up to the year 2015, in the following areas: demography, the economy, resources, education, b society, technology, military science and geopolitics
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