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SM Entertainment (041510 KQ) a Temporary Lull Before a Strong Bounce- Back

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SM Entertainment (041510 KQ) a Temporary Lull Before a Strong Bounce- Back SM Entertainment (041510 KQ) A temporary lull before a strong bounce- back Entertainment 1Q earnings pullback only temporary due to a lull in concerts For 1Q, SM Entertainment posted consolidated revenue of W50bn (+0.8% YoY) and Results Comment operating profit of W5.1bn (-72% YoY). The sharp contraction in operating profit despite flat top-line growth was largely a result of: 1) yen weakness eroding royalty May 31, 2013 income repatriated from Japan, and 2) a temporary void of Japanese concerts, which are recognized six months later. The last major concert held in 2012 was the August SM Town dome tour in Tokyo, and the first large-scale concert for 2013 was the Girls’ (Maintain) Buy Generation tour that lasted from February through April. Margins were further hurt by one-off expenses for SM Japan’s system development (accounting, etc.) and SM C&C’s Target Price (12M, W) 58,000 initial investments for video content production. We estimate 1Q overseas revenue was around W17.1bn (parent-based), significantly down from W26.7bn in 1Q12. Share Price (05/30/13, W) 38,600 1.54mn in-Japan concert attendance confirmed so far, nearly double that of 2012 Expected Return 50% Since earlier this year, SM Entertainment has been setting new records in several of its earnings indicators. First, in addition to a five-dome Japanese tour, it has been confirmed that TVXQ will perform on August 17th and 18th at the Nissan Stadium, which has a OP (13F, Wbn) 69 maximum seating capacity of 75,000. The firm’s 2013 Japanese concerts confirmed so Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 70 far have a combined maximum capacity of 1.54mn, which is nearly double the annual figure of 2012 (900,000). EPS Growth (13F, %) 37.3 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 21.6 Furthermore, SM Entertainment’s dome (stadium) concerts as a percentage of total P/E (13F, x) 14.1 concerts have increased from 46.3% in 2012 to 84.2% in 2013, a positive development Market P/E (13F, x) 9.6 given that dome tours tend to generate royalty income (per 10,000 attendees) twice as KOSDAQ 581.13 high as that of regular concerts (capacity of over 40,000 per concert for dome tours vs. 10,000-15,000 for regular tours). In 2H, a number of ex-Japan tours are also set to take Market Cap (Wbn) 797 place, including Girls’ Generation world tour, SM Town, and Super Junior’s Super Show 5. Shares Outstanding (mn) 21 Free Float (%) 78.2 The company is also likely to expand its Chinese presence in 2H. The new boy band EXO Foreign Ownership (%) 11.7 (comprising of six Korean and six Chinese members) has been gaining wide popularity in Beta (12M) 0.16 the Greater China region following its single release in 2012. On June 3rd, the band is 52-Week Low (W) 36,000 expected to release its first full-length album, which will feature Chinese songs. 52-Week High (W) 71,600 Lower TP by 19% to W58,000 in light of yen fluctuation (%) 1M 6M 12M We lowered our 2013F-14F EPS by 5% and 8.4%, respectively, after reflecting major Absolute -8.9 -16.6 -4.7 earnings variables observed in 1Q results. We incorporated more conservative Relative -10.7 -20.1 -13.1 assumptions to our target price, largely due to the uncertainty of the yen’s fluctuations. Share price 180 KOSDAQ In deriving our target price, we changed our peer-group comparison from US media and 160 entertainment players (average 2013F P/E of 29x) to global media and entertainment 140 stocks. Our target P/E is 21.5x, a 10% discount to the 2013F average global media and 120 entertainment multiple (24x). As such, we cut our target price to W58,000 from 100 W72,000. 80 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Internet/Game/Entertainment Revenue (Wbn) 97 143 241 281 335 368 OP (Wbn) 20 26 61 69 82 96 Chang-kwean Kim OP Margin (%) 20.9 17.9 25.1 24.5 24.6 26.1 +822-768-4321 [email protected] NP (Wbn) 17 23 40 56 74 85 EPS (W) 942 1,235 1,994 2,739 3,573 4,123 ROE (%) 22.9 23.1 24.7 23.6 24.4 22.5 P/E (x) 16.0 33.0 22.8 14.1 10.8 9.4 P/B (x) 3.6 7.4 5.5 3.5 2.6 2.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. May 31, 2013 SM Entertainment Table 1. Annual earnings (Wbn, %) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F Revenue 31.3 40.1 61.8 86.4 143.0 241.3 281.0 CD 8.9 10.8 14.6 14.9 19.7 22.3 22.7 Digital 4.4 4.8 9.5 8.5 6.3 6.4 9.5 Overseas 5.6 8.6 15.8 36.8 81.1 128.7 148.4 Management 12.4 16.0 21.9 26.2 35.9 36.3 39.1 Others 47.7 61.4 YoY Revenue 7.1 27.9 54.1 39.9 65.6 68.7 16.4 CD 1.6 21.3 35.7 2.1 32.0 13.3 1.5 Digital 9.7 8.9 98.1 -10.2 -26.2 1.2 49.4 Overseas 17.0 52.0 84.1 133.1 120.6 58.6 15.3 Management 6.3 28.4 37.3 19.6 37.2 0.9 7.8 Others 28.7 Portion CD 28.4 26.9 23.7 17.3 13.8 9.3 8.1 Digital 14.0 11.9 15.3 9.8 4.4 2.6 3.4 Overseas 18.0 21.4 25.5 42.6 56.7 53.3 52.8 Management 39.6 39.8 35.5 30.3 25.1 15.0 13.9 Others 19.8 21.8 OP -3.7 -1.9 9.3 20.2 25.6 60.5 74 YoY RR RR TTB 117.2 26.7 136.3 22.3 OP margin 15.1 23.4 17.9 25.1 26.3 NP -7.6 4.3 4.5 17.1 22.8 39.9 59.1 YoY RR TTB 4.7 280.0 33.3 75.0 48.1 NP margin 7.2 19.8 7.3 19.8 15.9 16.5 21.0 Note: All figures are based on K-GAAP until 2010; From 2011, all figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %, %p) Before After Change 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F Revenue 290 345 281 335 -3.2 -3.0 OP 74 92 69 82 -7.0 -10.6 Pre-tax profit 86 105 82 97 -4.9 -8.4 Net profit 59 80 56 74 -4.6 -8.1 EPS (W) 2,881 3,901 2,739 3,573 -5.0 -8.4 OP margin 25.5 26.7 24.5 24.6 -1.0 -2.1 Net margin 20.4 23.2 20.1 22.0 -0.3 -1.2 Notes: Based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 3. SM’s annual CD sales and concert capacity trends in-Japan and ex-Japan (‘000 units, ‘000 seats, %) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F CD 177,140 1,692,267 1,534,170 901,971 1,408,932 885,182 913,728 914,085 1,161,662 1,769,738 2,918,537 1,748,443 695,241 In Japan Concert - - 37,424 171,000 106,000 41,400 159,520 337,039 374,126 13,000 654,882 903,000 1,543,000 Ex-Japan Concert - - - - - - - 55,000 50,000 223,000 354,000 532,200 115,280 Note: Based on album release dates, concert dates, and maximum seating capacities; 2013 figures are our estimates based on confirmed schedules as of May 30, 2013 Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 May 31, 2013 SM Entertainment Table 4. SM’s major Japanese concerts (seats) Girls’ Joint Date BoA TVXQ SHINee Super Junior Location Generation performances 01/18/12 17,000 Yokohama 01/19/12 17,000 Yokohama 01/25/12 10,000 Nagoya 01/26/12 10,000 Nagoya 01/27/12 10,000 Nagoya 02/11/12 15,000 Fukuoka 02/12/12 15,000 Fukuoka 02/18/12 10,000 Niigata 02/19/12 10,000 Niigata 02/23/12 10,000 Sapporo 02/24/12 10,000 Sapporo 03/03/12 10,000 Hiroshima 03/04/12 10,000 Hiroshima 03/09/12 8,000 Fukui 03/10/12 8,000 Fukui 03/13/12 16,000 Osaka 03/14/12 16,000 Osaka 03/17/12 37,000 Saitama 03/18/12 37,000 Saitama 03/20/12 37,000 Saitama 04/14/12 50,000 Tokyo 04/15/12 50,000 Tokyo 04/16/12 50,000 Tokyo 04/21/12 45,000 Osaka 04/22/12 45,000 Osaka 04/23/12 45,000 Osaka 04/25/12 11,000 Fukuoka 04/29/12 11,000 Hokkaido 05/03/12 10,000 Nagoya 05/04/12 10,000 Nagoya 05/08/12 16,000 Osaka 05/09/12 16,000 Osaka 05/12/12 10,000 Hyogo 05/13/12 10,000 Hyogo 05/30/12 13,000 Tokyo 05/31/12 13,000 Tokyo 06/02/12 13,000 Tokyo 06/03/12 13,000 Tokyo 06/30/12 10,000 Hiroshima 07/01/12 10,000 Hiroshima 08/04/12 50,000 Tokyo 08/05/12 50,000 Tokyo 10/18/12 Tokyo 10/19/12 Tokyo 11/19/12 5,000 Yokohama 11/20/12 5,000 Yokohama 11/21/12 5,000 Yokohama 12/22/12 8,000 Kobe 12/23/12 8,000 Kobe 12/24/12 8,000 Kobe KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 May 31, 2013 SM Entertainment 01/01/13 15,000 Tokyo 02/09/13 9,000 Kobe 02/10/13 9,000 Kobe 02/16/13 37,000 Saitama 02/17/13 37,000 Saitama 02/23/13 10,000 Niigata 02/24/13 10,000 Niigata 02/27/13 15,000 Fukuoka 02/28/13 15,000 Fukuoka 03/09/13 10,000 Hiroshima 03/10/13 10,000 Hiroshima 03/19/13 37,000 Saitama 03/20/13 37,000 Saitama 03/26/13 16,000 Osaka 03/27/13 16,000 Osaka 04/04/13 37,000 Saitama 04/05/13 37,000 Saitama 04/09/13 10,000 Nagoya 04/10/13 10,000 Nagoya 04/20/13 10,000 Osaka 04/21/13 10,000 Osaka 04/27/13 37,000 Saitama 04/28/13 37,000 Saitama 04/29/13 37,000 Saitama 05/05/13 40,000 Sapporo 05/10/13 40,000 Nagoya 05/11/13 40,000 Nagoya 05/22/13 40,000 Nagoya 05/25/13 35,000 Fukuoka 05/26/13 35,000 Fukuoka 05/29/13 10,000 Nagoya 05/30/13 10,000 Nagoya 06/01/13 10,000 Kobe 06/02/13 10,000 Kobe 06/05/13 45,000 Osaka 06/06/13 45,000 Osaka 06/08/13 45,000 Osaka 06/08/13 10,000 Sapporo 06/09/13 45,000 Osaka 06/15/13 50,000 Tokyo 06/16/13 50,000 Tokyo 06/17/13 50,000 Tokyo 06/18/13 12,000 Fukuoka 06/22/13 10,000 Hiroshima 06/28/13 World Tour plan37,000 Saitama 06/29/13 World Tour plan 37,000 Saitama 06/30/13 World Tour plan 37,000 Saitama 07/06/13 World Tour plan 16,000 Osaka 07/07/13 World Tour plan 16,000 Osaka 07/13/13 World Tour plan 10,000 Niigata 07/27/13 50,000 Tokyo 07/28/13 50,000 Tokyo 08/17/13 75,000 Yokohama 08/18/13 75,000 Yokohama 2012 Total 903,000 2013 Total 1,543,000 Notes: Based on our estimates.
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