MSG 2016-09-Xx Pitch FINAL 2.Pdf
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PAGE 2 PROJECT TEAM CURRENT SITUATION STRATEGY / PROCESS WHY CBRE? PAGE 3 | REAL ESTATE DISCUSSION PAGE 4 MARY ANN TIGHE CEO PROJECT Tri-State Region TEAM CHRISTOPHER CORRINET GREGORY TOSKO Senior Vice President Vice Chairman Consulting Consulting MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT LARGE/RENEWALS VORNADO STRUCTURING ROB HILL PETER GAMBER Senior Vice President Senior Financial Analyst Brokerage Consulting Capital Markets Research Workplace Strategy Project Management Cost Segregation 2PAGE 5PENN PLAZA BUILDING OVERVIEW OWNER: 100% owned by Vornado YEAR BUILT: 1968 RSF: 1.6 Million HEIGHT: 29 Floors* LEASE ROLLOVER 589K RSF 597K RSF (39.1%) (39.6%) 170K RSF (11.3%) 102K RSF (6.7%) 44K RSF 4K RSF (2.9%) (0.2%) ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21+ *Floors 30 & 31 currently storage; might be converted to office use in future PAGE 6 MSG OCCUPANCY OVERVIEW ESCALATED RENT (2) 2017 2020 2024 FLOOR RSF LXD $ / RSF (3) PARTIAL 26TH 6,945 $61.28 $65.47 $75.64 PARTIAL 26TH 10,832 $59.68 $63.82 $73.93 PARTIAL 19TH 33,263 $57.94 $62.08 $72.19 4/30/2024 PARTIAL 19TH 28,488 $58.92 $60.40 $74.50 14-16TH 153,347 $61.07 $65.21 $75.32 PARTIAL 8TH 24,667 $79.38 $83.53 $93.63 DIRECT SPACE (1) | WTD. AVG. 257,542 $62.15 $65.98 $76.53 ENTIRE 12TH (2) 60,475 1/31/2020 $32.79 $36.93 N / A ALL SPACE | WTD. AVG. 318,017 $56.55 $60.45 $76.53 (1) Does not include the 24th floor which is being surrendered in Q2 2017 $18.0MM $19.2MM $19.7MM (2) Sublet from McGraw-Hill; expires January 31, 2020 (3) $5/RSF rent bump 5/1/2022 HEADCOUNT (EST.)(4) 1,000 1,000 1,000 RSF/RENT PER HEADCOUNT 318 / $18,000 318 / $19,200 257 / $19,700 (4) As per MSG PAGE 7 | REAL ESTATE DISCUSSION EARLY THOUGHTS CHALLENGES GOALS Workplace enhancement (improve collaboration/internal GARNER communication, image, employee retention) Reasonable economics including contribution towards MSG leasehold improvements 12th floor January 31, 2020 LXD OBTAIN Vornado’s contemplated façade work coterminous space envelope and flexibility via renewal, expansion, contraction options Restack disruption to staff/operations SECURE Swing-space availability sufficient swing space Renovating in place will extend renovation time and likely MINIMIZE entail a significant cost premium due to staging, start/stop disruption to business/employees work cycles and incremental overtime work COORDINATE Unamortized capital/write offs tenant work with building renovation Ties to the Garden’s location MANAGE P&L impact / cash outlay ENSURE building systems can handle increase in density PAGE 8 2 PENN PLAZA Elevators Floor RSF 31 MECHANICAL / STORAGE 30 MECHANICAL / STORAGE 29 56,301 INFORMATION BUILDERS (12/2023) 28 56,301 INFORMATION BUILDERS (12/2023) 27 56,301 INFORMATION BUILDERS (12/2023) 26 55,591 MSG - 10,832 RSF (4/2024) EMC CORPORATION - 37,756 RSF (11/2018) VHB - 7,003 RSF (3/2017) 25 61,185 S&P GLOBAL (3/2020) 24 48,779 INFORMATION BUILDERS - 28,000 RSF (12/2023) K-FORCE STAFFING - 12,000 RSF (2020) MSG - 8,779 RSF (Surrendering 2017) 23 61,294 PROSKAUER ROSE (Sublease from S&P, 3/2020) 22 56,699 S&P GLOBAL - 28,000 RSF (3/2024) MORGAN STANLEY - 28,699 RSF (2/2018) 21 61,294 S&P (3/2020) 20 61,294 S&P (3/2020) 19 61,751 MSG (4/2024) 18 55,000 EMC CORPORATION (11/2018) 17 61,543 EMC CORPORATION - 10,773 RSF (11/2018) SIGNATURE BANK - 6,459 RSF (3/2021) CUMULUS MEDIA - 44,311 (6/2019) 16 60,080 MSG (4/2024) 15 59,734 MSG - 33,290 RSF (4/2024) UNITED BUSINESS MEDIA - 26,444 RSF (12/2025) 14 59,976 MSG (4/2024) 12 60,531 MSG (Sublease from S&P) (3/2020) 11 61,102 AMER. FOUNDATION FOR THE BLIND – 17,649 RSF (10/2021) URBAN ENGINEERS – 12,270 RSF (2024) (1) BEACON HEALTH (SUB. FROM S&P) – 31,232 RSF (3/2020) 10 57,432 SCHOOLOGY - 46,094 RSF (SUB. FROM S&P, 3/2020) SUBLET AVAILABLE - 7,781 RSF (2018) AVAILABLE - 3,557 RSF 9 60,594 S&P (3/2020) 8 54,667 AMC (SUB. FROM HP) - 30,000 RSF (1/2018) MSG - 24,667 RSF (4/2024) 7 58,704 AVAYA - 29,131 RSF (2027) ASSOCIATION FOR COMPUTING MACHINERY - 29,573 RSF (2021) 6 59,987 JACOBS ENGINEERING (SUB. FROM S&P) - 41,987 RSF (3/2020) AMC - 18,000 RSF (9/2017) 5 50,754 MTA - 32,562 RSF (2020) GANNET FLEMING, INC. - 18,192 RSF (2020) 4 55,000 AMC (7/2017 – with rights to extend) 3 54,000 TECTRATECH - 41,000 RSF (2020) FOREST ELECTRIC - 13,000 RSF (7/2017) EXISTING POTENTIAL SWING POTENTIAL SWING AND/OR LONG TERM (1) Recently renewed: 7 years, $62(3), $66(4), $15 work, 5 months free. 2 PENN RENOVATION PAGE 10 PAGE 11 | REAL ESTATE DISCUSSION PRELIMINARY TIMELINE Current Situation Strategy Discussion / Selection Term Sheet Negotiations LXD Transaction Documentation 4/30/2024 Space Design / Construction Drawings Bid & Award Construction Swing Space Prep Floor Demo / Renovations Contingency N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2024 Based on 2 floors renovated every 6 months PAGE 12 STANDARDS Open/enclosed, sizes, collaboration ratios, executive area, amenities RESTACKING HEADCOUNT Swing space, threshold for pain an Current headcount (FT, FTE, contract (by group?), progression workers, seasonal) open requisitions, growth rate, time horizon CONSENSUS IS CRITICAL ADJACENCIES CONSTRUCTION Required/preferred, Clarity on finish, technology, stair/elevator/building/NYC amenity spaces, restack premium FINANCIAL Cash, P&L, near term, stabilized, NPV, writeoffs PAGE 13 | REAL ESTATE DISCUSSION RENEWAL RENT PRICING The Garden/2024 LXD $105.29 $21.45 Rent Overlap FF&E, $50.00 Capital Technology (above Work Allowance) $50.00 TENANT RISK $100.00 MARKET MARKET RENT 2017 2% Annual Net Rent Growth through 2020 and 5% Annual Net Rent Growth Rate to 2024 2024 RENT $65.00 $83.84 Downtime / Free Rent (18 months) Work Allowance LANDLORD RISK (2024) ($75.00 psf) Restack Costs $18.50 $65.34 Restack Plan Note: All calculations use a 7% discount rate and a 15-year extension term. PAGE 14 PENN PLAZA REDEVELOPMENT 2 PENN RENOVATION GENERAL MARKET HUDSON YARDS VORNADO PORTFOLIO PAGE 15 | REAL ESTATE DISCUSSION MARKET OVERVIEW $ / RSF $110 $100 3 Years +74% (+20.3% CAGR) 5 Years $90 +43% (+7.4% CAGR) $80 7 Years +92% (+9.8% CAGR) $70 $60 7 Years +260% (+20.1% CAGR) $50 3 Years -33% $40 4 Years (-12.4% CAGR) -20% (-5.3% CAGR) $30 $20 4 Years -26% (-7.2% CAGR) $10 $0 '70 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Forecast based on Q2 2016 CBRE Econometric Advisors Market Forecast applied to 2015 year-end rent of $79.91 psf. PAGE 16 MANHATTAN OFFICE DEVELOPMENT Historical Office Construction Completions and Residential Conversions by Decade Total SF (millions) 65.0 55.0 45.0 35.0 64.6 56.0 54.6 25.0 15.0 11.4 18.7 5.0 10.4 9.6 -3.7 -5.0 -12.7 -11.1 -15.0 -25.0 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Completed Under Construction Conversions Source: CBRE Research. HUDSON YARDS PAGE 18 50 HUDSON YARDS 30 HUDSON YARDS NORTH TOWER 2.8M SF | 2021+ Related |2.5M SF | 2019 / 2020 Time Warner - 1.4M SF, KKR (343K SF): condo purchase, Wells Fargo (500K SF): condo purchase, Related (258K SF), Oxford (45K SF), DNB Nor (45K SF) THE SPIRAL 2.8M SF | 2021+ KKR: 2015, $1,400 / RSF Purchase Price DNB: 2016, $175 / RSF Starting Rent 55 HUDSON YARDS MANHATTAN WEST NORTH TOWER Related/Mitsui | 1.35M SF | 2017 / 2018 Brookfield | 2.1M SF | 2019/2020 Boies, Schiller & Flexner (110K SF), Skadden Arps (anchor) for floors 28-45, Milbank Tweed (260K SF), MarketAxess (84K SF) NHL Office and Flagship Retail Store (pending) Point72 & Intercept (Pending) RETAIL Nieman Marcus 3 HUDSON BOULEVARD Moinian | 1.8M SF | 2021+ 35 HUDSON YARDS Related Residential | 2019 MANHATTAN WEST SOUTH TOWER Brookfield | 2.1M SF | 2021+ 3 MANHATTAN WEST Brookfield Residential | 2018 15 HUDSON YARDS 450 WEST 33RD STREET Related Residential | 2018 Brookfield |1.7M SF | 16 stories DELIVERY TIMING 10 HUDSON YARDS SOUTH TOWER 2016 2019-2020 CULTURE SHED Related | 100K SF | 2016 1.7M SF building 2017-2018 2021+ Coach (700K SF), L’Oreal (438K SF), SAP (144K SF), BCG (193K SF), Vayner Media (65K SF) Coach: 2013, $707 / RSF Purchase Price L’Oreal: 2013, $68 / RSF Starting Rent PENN PLAZA PAGE 20 VORNADO 7.2 MM RSF 7.3% Vacancy 1 PENN PLAZA 100 WEST 33RD STREET 17.7% 3 Year Roll Parsons Brinckerhoff Interpublic Multiple Tenants Apparel 350,000 RSF Available Rocket Fuel 7 WEST 34TH STREET Amazon 2 PENN PLAZA 330 WEST 34TH STREET New York & Co. Footlocker Yodle Deutsch 11 PENN PLAZA Macy’s AMC MSG PAGE 21 | REAL ESTATE DISCUSSION OPTIMAL LEASE TERM? LEASE TERM RENT OPERATIONAL AVERAGING CONTROL 2024 AMORTIZATION FLEXIBILITY OF CAPEX SHORTER LONGER WORKPLACE PAGE 22 DEAL STRUCTURING FORWARD DEAL FORWARD FMV UTILIZE RENEWAL OPTION + Extend lease term / control of space + Extend lease term / control of space + Amortize assuming extension + Avoid rent averaging + Extend amortization period + Extend amortization period + Flexibility via “termination option” + Cost certainty + Avoid rent averaging – Amortization period/control not – Near term P&L impact via rent averaging + Deflect Vornado optimism extended as long – Vornado’s optimistic projections – Cost uncertainty – Cost uncertainty – 2029+ uncertainty One 5 year renewal option • Minimum 100,000 RSF • Cannot orphan 15th floor • Notice by 10/31/2022 • Greater of FMR and escalated rent (~$75 PSF) • True baseball arbitration FMV definition important Extend 12th floor (2020 LXD) RENT AVERAGING Defer / grow concessions | Accelerate base years | Claim “new deal” | Create uncertainty PAGE 23 | REAL ESTATE DISCUSSION