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Bangkok Property Market Quarterly Presentation Q4 2016

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Bangkok Property Market Quarterly Presentation Q4 2016 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET QUARTERLY PRESENTATION Q4 2016 8 FEBRUARY 2017 DISCLAIMER • This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real-estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change. • Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein. CBRE 2 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET MASS TRANSIT LINES BTS – 733,000 passengers per day EXISITNG Nonthaburi MRT – 316,000 passengers per day ARL – 60,000 passengers per day Operating Lines SRT Light Red Line – 0 BTS: Light Green Line (1999) BTS: Dark Green Line (1999) MRT: Dark Blue Line (2004) 1 km – Missing Link ARL: Red Line (2010) BTS: Light Green Line Extension (2011) On Nut - Bearing BTS: Dark Green Line Extension (2009) Saphan Taksin – Wong Wian Yai SRT: Light Red Line (2012) (Stopped Operating) Bangkok BTS: Dark Green Line Extension (2013) Wong Wian Yai – Bang Wa MRT: Purple Line (2016) Tao Poon – Klong Bang Pai “Missing Link” Total distance 119.8 km. Scheduled Completion: September 2017 (80 stations) CBRE 3 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET MASS TRANSIT LINES UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY 2020 Nonthaburi Under Construction Lines MRT: Dark Blue Line 1 (2019) MRT: Dark Blue Line 2 (2019) 1 km – Missing Link SRT: Light Red Line (2020) SRT: Dark Red Line (2020) BTS: Light Green Line Extensions (2017-2020) Bangkok Total distance 199.8 km. (134 stations) 119.8 existing km. (80 stations) & 80.0 km. under construction (54 stations) “Missing Link” Scheduled Completion: September 2017 CBRE 4 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET MASS TRANSIT LINES PLANNED COMPLETION BY 2023 Pathum Thani Planned Lines MRT: Dark Blue Line MRT: Orange Line Nonthaburi MRT: Pink Line MRT: Yellow Line MRT: Purple Line Extension SRT: Light Red Line Extension SRT: Dark Red Line SRT: Dark Red Line Extension ARL: Red Line Gold Line Total distance 391.2 km. (259 stations) Bangkok 119.8 existing km. (80 stations), 80.0 km. under construction (54 stations) & 191.4 km. planned (125 stations) Samut Prakarn CBRE 5 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET MASS TRANSIT LINES Pathum Thani FUTURE PLANS Nonthaburi Bangkok Samut Prakarn CBRE 6 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET RESIDENTIAL TRENDS IN THE BANGKOK METROPOLITAN REGION New Supply of Self-Built Single-Detached Houses in the New Supply of Developer-Built Townhouses in the Bangkok Bangkok Metropolitan Region, 2003–Q3 2016 Metropolitan Region, 2003–Q3 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total 30,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New Supply of Developer-Built Single-Detached Houses in the New Supply of Developer-Built Condominiums in the Bangkok Bangkok Metropolitan Region, 2003–Q3 2016 Metropolitan Region, 2003–Q3 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total 30,000 90,000 80,000 25,000 70,000 20,000 60,000 50,000 15,000 40,000 10,000 30,000 20,000 5,000 10,000 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CBRE 7 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET HOUSING TRANSFERS BY JURISTIC AND INDIVIDUAL PERSONS, 2012-2016 Single-Detached Houses Townhouses Condominiums 25,000 40,000 60,000 35,000 50,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 15,000 25,000 20,000 30,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 10,000 5,000 10,000 5,000 - - - 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 Transferred from Juristic Persons (New Properties) Transferred from Individual Persons (Second-Hand Properties) Limited existing property resale market Source: The Real Estate Information Center (REIC) CBRE 8 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET CONDOMINIUM TOTAL DOWNTOWN & MIDTOWN/SUBURBAN STOCK Total Downtown and Midtown Condominium Stock and Newly Completed Condominiums, 1995-2021F No. of Units Existing Supply New Supply 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Q4 2016 Total Supply = 585,095 units Downtown = 122,403 units Midtown/Suburban = 462,692 units CBRE 9 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY MAP OF BANGKOK DOWNTOWN & MIDTOWN/SUBURBAN AREAS Midtown/Suburban Existing supply: 462,692 units Future supply: 111,787 units Downtown Existing supply: 122,403 units Future supply: 25,305 units CBRE 10 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET CONDOMINIUM FALLING AMOUNT OF NEW SUPPLY, ESPECIALLY IN MIDTOWN/ SUBURBAN AREAS Newly Completed Condominiums in Downtown and Midtown/Suburban Areas, 1995-2021F No. of Units Downtown Midtown 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F New Completions in Q4 2016 = 24,664 units Downtown = 4,076 units Midtown/Suburban = 20,588 units CBRE 11 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET MIDTOWN/SUBURBAN CONDOMINIUM CHEAPER TO BUY A TOWNHOUSE, ON A THB/SQ.M. BASIS Supalai Veranda Rattanathibeth Phra Nang Klao Bridge 2 BR Size: 62-74 sq.m. Skyline Rattanathibet Average Price: THB 64,000/sq.m. 2 BR Size: 42 - 59.50 sq.m. Total Price for 2BR: 3.97 – 4.74 MB Average Price: THB 86,500/sq.m. Yaek Nonthaburi 1 Distance to MRT: 380 m Total Price for 2BR: 3.63-5.15 MB Distance to MRT: 200 m Si Phonsawan Nonthaburi Government Centre Baan Klang Mueng The Connect UP3 Rattanathibet 17 Rattanathibet Usable Area: from 160 sq.m. Usable Area: 149 sq.m. Price Per Sq.m.: THB 21,000 Price Per Sq.m.: THB 29,500 Total Price: from 3.35 MB Total Price: from 4.49 MB 3 BR, 3 BTH, 2 Car Parks 3 BR, 3 BTH, 2 Car Parks Distance to MRT: 700 m Ministry of Public Health Distance to MRT: 650 m CBRE 12 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET DOWNTOWN CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICES – STILL RISING Average Re-sale Prices of Completed Freehold High-End Units Average Asking Price of Future Units, High-end and Above, and Above, 2004-Q4 2016 2004-Q4 2016 Average Price Silom/Sathorn Average Price Silom/Sathorn THB/sq.m THB/sq.m. Central Lumpini Sukhumvit Central Lumpini Sukhumvit 250,000 300,000 Average = THB 203,909 per sq.m. Average = THB 265,304 per sq.m. 200,000 250,000 150,000 200,000 100,000 150,000 50,000 100,000 0 50,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High-End and above condominium units - priced above THB 120,000 per sq.m. with starting unit price of above THB 5 million CBRE 13 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET CONDOMINIUM RECORD PRICES OF THB 300,000/SQ.M. FOR MULTIPLE UNITS EXISTING CONDOMINIUMS THE RESIDENCES AT 185 RAJADAMRI SUKHOTHAI RESIDENCES THE ST. REGIS BANGKOK Rajdamri Sathorn Ratchadamri 236 Units (92% sold) 196 Units (95% sold) 53 Units (100% sold) Completed Q1 2014 Completed 2012 Completed 2011 Note: Sales figures are as of Q4 2016. CBRE 14 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET CONDOMINIUM RECORD PRICES OF THB 300,000/SQ.M. FOR SOME NEW PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION CONDOMINIUMS THE RITZ-CARLTON MARQUE MAGNOLIAS WATERFRONT RESIDENCES SUKHUMVIT AT ICONSIAM Sathorn-Narathiwat Sukhumvit 39 Charoennakorn 209 Units (74% sold) 147 Units (69% sold) 379 Units (100% sold) Q2 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2018 THE RESIDENCES FOUR SEASONS PRIVATE NIMIT SALADAENG AT MANDARIN LANGSUAN RESIDENCES BANGKOK ONE ORIENTAL Langsuan Saladaeng Soi 1 Charoenkrung Charoennakorn 187 Units (93% sold) 185 Units (50% Sold) 355 Units (50% Sold) 146 Units (61% Sold) Q2 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q4 2018 Note: Sales figures are as of Q4 2016 CBRE 15 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET CONDOMINIUM RECORD PRICES OF THB 300,000/SQ.M. FOR SOME NEW PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION CONDOMINIUMS 98 WIRELESS TELA THONGLOR KRAAM SUKHUMVIT 26 Wireless Rd. Thonglor 13 Sukhumvit 26 77 Units (40% Sold) 84 Units (74% Sold) 128 Units (66% Sold) Q1 2017 Q4 2018 Q3 2019 Q SUKHUMVIT KHUN BY YOO 28 CHIDLOM THE BANGKOK THONLOR Sukhumvit 6 Thonglor 12 Chidlom Thonglor 1 273 Units (20% Sold) 148 Units (53% Sold) 252 Units (30% Sold) 148 Units (28% Sold) Q4 2017 Q3 2020 Q1 2020 Q3 2019 Note: Sales figures are as of Q4 2016 CBRE 16 BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET LARGE PRICE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NEW AND EXISTING PROPERTIES IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS The Park at EM District Av.
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