AMERICA'S LEADING MAGAZINE ON AFRICA

$2.75 MAY-JUNE 1981 ISSN 0001-9836

Chairman Mengistu Haile Mariam of Ethiopia .

What Policy in the Horn? CEUTA MEULLA xunis

Algiers j TUNISIA

VERK p Nouakchott . Praia

GUINEA GLHKA-BISSAUlConakry Bissau Freetown SIERRA LEOHC -*r^ CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC CAMEROON 1 Bangui

MAURITHJS

MADAGASCAR REUNION Port Louis MAY-JUNE 1981 AMERICA'S VOLUME 26, NUMBER 3 LEADING MAGAZINE cfffRICA ON AFRICA

A Publication of the (REPORT African-American Institute

The Reagan and Africa African-American Institute Policy Options in the Horn 4 Chairman By Anthony J. Hughes George N. Lindsay President Interview Donald B. Easum Dr. Mohamed Sheikh Aden, Publisher Somali Minister of Information Ronald E. Springwaler and National Guidance 12 Editor Interviewed by Anthony J. Hughes Anthony J. Hughes Interview Associate Editor Margaret A. Novicki Mohamed Diriye Urdoh Secretary-General of the Western Somali Washington Liberation Front 15 Correspondent Richard Deutsch Interviewed by Anthony J. Hughes Editorial Secretary Ellen E. Brown Reagan and Africa Which Way in Southern Africa? 17 Circulation. Subscriptions, By John Seiler Advertising. Management, and Production Services by Transaction Periodicals Con- In Washington Reagan's Unruly Review 23 sortium: IN THIS ISSUE By Richard Deutsch Art Department Starting with the cover story on the Horn, Richard J. Levins the focus of this issue is upon the policy African Update 27 Fern Shegoski options facing the Reagan administration Judith Martin Waterman Editor: Joseph Margolis in Africa. Editor Anthony Hughes visited Associate Editor: Margaret A. Novicki Production Editors Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya to prepare Alex Fundock III the article on that region. Interviews with Editorial Assistant: Michael Beaubien George P. Bassett two of the leaders he met — the Somali information minister and the secretary- Personal View general of the Western Somali Liberation Africa Report, a nonpartisan Southern African Reactions to Reagan 43 Front — are also featured, Ethiopian lead- magazine of African affairs, is By Gwendolen M. Carter published bimonthly in July-Au- ers were not available for interviews dur- gust, September-October. No- ing his visit nor have they responded to vember-December, January- written questions as we go to press. Analysis February, March-April, and May- During a tour of southern Africa, Dr. Politics in Trans-Saharan Africa 47 June, and is scheduled to appear Gwendolen M. Carter gathered reactions al the beginning of each date pe- to President Reagan and his policies. She By Robert A. Mortimer riod at 833 United Nations Plaza. New York, NY. 10017. Editorial also assesses Zimbabwe's first year and correspondence and letters to the its prospects (or the future. Another Guinea Publisher should be sent to this American observer of the southern Africa Myth and Reality of Change 53 address. Correspondence re- scene, Dr. John Seiler, examines the his- By Lansine Kaba garding subscriptions, distribu- tory of negotiations over the future of tion, advertising, and other busi- Namibia and considers options for the ness matters should be sent to United States in that region. African Development Transaction Periodicals Consor- tium, Dept. AR, Rutgers Univer- In an article on "Trans-Sahara." Dr. New Directions for the 1980s 58 sity, New Brunswick, New Jersey Robert Mortimer sees recent devel- By Guy Arnold 08903. Telephone: (201) 932- opments creating a closer interplay be- 2280. Subscription rates — Indi- tween the nations of northern, Sahelian, viduals: U.S.A. $15, Canada $18, and western Africa, with consequent im- Zimbabwe air rate overseas $29; Institu- plications for American policy. Guinean The First Year 62 tions: U.S.A. $18, Canada $21, Dr. Lansine Kaba analyzes the more ac- By Gwendolen M. Carter air rate overseas $32. Second- tive foreign policy pursued in recent years class postage paid at New York, by President Sekou Toure and considers N Y. and al additional mailing of- reports of a more liberal domestic policy in tices. Telephones: Publisher the West Africa state. (212) 949-5717, Editor (212) 949-5731. From Washington, Richard Deutsch de- Photo Credit: scribes the factors involved in the refor- The cover picture of Chairman Mengistu Haile Mariam r The African-American mulation of Africa policy now under way. is by Bill Campbell of Sygma, Institute. Me , 1981 REAGAN AND AFRICA

Policy Options in the Horn

BY ANTHONY J. HUGHES

he Hom of Africa is a volatile re- Yemen (PDRY) at Aden, Socotra, and through a $44 million credit under T gion in which the options of the Perim. the terms of Foreign Military Sales Reagan administration are wide. Prox- Against this lineup, the United States (FMS) legislation. The installation of imity lo the Middle East and the en- has a base at Diego Garcia in the Indian the system would involve the presence trenched position of the Soviet Union Ocean and access to facilities in Ma- of a handful of U.S. military personnel and Cuba in Ethiopia are the salient sirah (Oman) and Mombasa (Kenya). in a training and maintenance role. In global features of this theater. These France has the use of naval, air, and broad terms, the options lie between factors present the risk — or the op- land-based facilities in Djibouti. reneging on the agreements and en- portunity — for confrontation with the Besides, the issue of the U.S. role in thusiastically backing the Siad Barre Soviets. the region goes beyond the tweedle- government militarily, politically, and As for local factors, a majorquestion dum and tweedle-dee of seeking friends economically. involves the ability of the current and counteralliances. The immediate If anyone has a case for redrawing Marxist regime in Addis Ababa lo rule policy decision facing the administra- the map of Africa along ethnic lines, it over the empire it seized from Emperor tion in this region is whether to activate is the Somalis. They already have the Haile Selassie in 1974. The second the agreements made by the Carter ad- most homogenous state in Africa, fol- local factor is the Somali dream of unit- ministration to take over the former lowing the 1960 union of former British ing all its people under one flag. This Soviet facilities in the Somali Demo- and Italian colonies. The areas of Dji- involves claims to the Ogaden region of cratic Republic (SDR) at Berbera and bouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia that are the Ethiopia, to the state of Djibouti, and to elsewhere — possibly for use by the subject of their irridentist claims one-third of Kenyan territory. These is- Strategic Strike Force — and to provide share a considerable degree of ethnic sues concern the integrity of states and Somalia with defense material. homogeneity. Ethiopian sovereignty the inviolability of national boundaries, Discussions between the United over the Ogaden was achieved through principles that are held in special es- States and Somalia started in 1978, and cooperation with Western powers teem by the Organization oi African agreements were reached in August carving up Somali territory in the late Unity. 1980. The Defense Department feels nineteenth century. The dominant It cannot be denied that in this peri- that Berbera needs up to $100 million in ethnic group, the Amharas, exercised pheral region the Soviets and their allies renovation before it will be useful, and less authority in this region than in any have scored successes that are of more Congress has approved the first $10 other fief of their far-flung empire. As than diplomatic significance. Their million appropriation for that purpose. late as World War II, the Ogaden was presence in Ethiopia could provide a So far the United States has not done under military administration from springboard for further activities in Af- more than inspect the facilities at Ber- British Somaliland. And today the rica. More immediately, it gives them bera. No ships have called; no planes Somalis of the Ogaden suffer under a access to ports in Assab and Massawa have landed; no personnel are estab- rule from Addis Ababa even harsher as well as an anchorage in the Dhalak lished there. than that meted out in the rest of the Islands, complementing facilities in the The arms to be supplied comprise a country. The fact that the government People's Democratic Republic of Vulcan defense system made available in Mogadishu is also undemocratic.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 oppressive, and Marxist-oriented is not Kenya, which Somalis still call by the children. One senior Kenyan minister directly relevant. Somali clans tradi- British colonial name, Northern Fron- virtually declared an open season for tionally move between the Ogaden and tier District (NFD), the campaign has shooting Somalis suspected of subver- other areas. Many leading Somalis, in- been more sporadic. Although the sion. cluding Presidenl Siad Barre. have Ogaden is almost part of the Somali The upsurge of activity followed a roots in ihe Ogaden. heartland, the Somali incusion into state visit to Kenya by the Ethiopian It is therefore not surprising that the Kenya is relatively recent. Their num- head of state, during which a strong most consistent pressure of Somali ir- bers and density are lower, and they are reaffirmation of joint opposition to ridentism has been directed at this re- more geographically interspersed Somali irridentism was issued. The gion. In 1977 the guerrillas of the among the original inhabitants, whom Kenyan-Ethiopian communique called Western Somali Liberation Front they were in the process of displacing at upon all states to refrain from arming (WSLF) launched a major offensive the time of the arrival of colonialism at Somalia — a clear reference to the U.S. when the Ethiopian military junta the close of the nineteenth century. proposal to supply Somalia with about known as the Dergue was losing ground Just before Kenya's independence in $44 million worth of defensive arms. in Ethiopia, facing half a dozen other 1963 the inhabitants of the NFD voted The Somalis responded angrily to this regional uprisings, and still struggling overwhelmingly for secession to So- strengthening of the Nairobi-Addis for power at the center. malia. For political reasons, Moga- Ababa axis. There are conflicting reports of the dishu blamed colonial Britain for fail- degree of regular Somali military in- ure to effect the transfer. In fact, it was With their new American friend, volvement at the start. But by the close the Kenyatta government that vetoed they had hoped to loosen that axis and of the campaign a major thrust by the secession. The Kenyan case, then and had embarked upon a campaign to dif- Somali army, using heavy armor and now, is that their country, like most of ferentiate their policies towards north- air support, put most of the Ogaden in Africa, is made up of many ethnic their hands. groups. To permit secession in the case This was the point at which the of Somalis would start a process that Soviets switched horses in midstream would undermine the stability of all and intervened massively and deci- African states. This is the strongly held sively on the Ethiopian side. Mean- position of virtually all African gov- while, the United States and the West, ernments. who had led Siad to expect their mili- Nevertheless, the Somalis of the re- tary support if he broke with the Rus- gion have waged an intermittent cam- sians, held back, unwilling to be asso- paign for secession, with light arms, ciated with his expansionism. The cross-border havens, and political Somali advance continued well into backing from Mogadishu (where the 1978, until the effect of Soviet supplies NFD Liberation Front still functions, and Cuban forces began to be felt. Then with financial support, an office, trans- within a few months they were driven portation, and recognition enhanced by back, and 8,000 men, one-third of their invitations to official events). armed forces, were lost; and, by the end The Kenyan response has been un- of the Ogaden war, only half a dozen even. At times efforts have been made MiGs of Somalia's erstwhile powerful to extend to the people some of the air force were still flying. Currently the social and economic services available WSLF is waging a more traditional in the rest of the country. At other ETHIOPIA guerrilla campaign. After a leadership times, when shifta (Somali guerrilla) shake-up, it has attempted to put some activity has appeared to be on the rise, distance between itself and Mogadishu. the area is treated as enemy territory, its calling for self-determination rather inhabitants rounded up and placed than amalgamation. This is largely a under curfew to prevent them from political ploy. A separate Ogadeni state supporting the insurgents. would make no sense. Even more sig- At the close of 1980, following mur- nificantly, the WSLF operates with ders and acts of lawlessness, which the quasi-official status in Mogadishu. Its Kenyans declared were politically transportation apparently has a higher motivated and committed by Somalis, priority for gasoline than some gov- the authorities began a crackdown. Ac- ernment ministries. In authoritarian cording to Somali sources, the govern- Somalia, no organization operates ment actions comprised not only cur- without direct official backing. fews and mass arrests but also the kil- With regard to the claimed areas of ling of innocent civilians, including

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 1980, "We Somalis live in a beautiful but most demanding and sometimes even harsh environment where surplus, if any, is quite marginal." Twice during the past year the coun- try has been on the point of collapse for lack of fuel. In each case a foreign ben- efactor (once it was Saudi Arabia, once a Western power) donated a small tanker load of oil. Drought and dislocation have re- duced livestock production, which ac- counts for over 80 percent of export earnings. Bananas (10-14 percent) have declined drastically. The offshore fishing industry was put on the beach when the Soviets pulled out. The country has no foreign reserves. According to one government minister, total export earnings in recent years have been devoted to meeting fuel im- port bills. Economic development has virtually ceased. The 1979-81 three- year development plan consisted merely of the unfulfilled projects of the previous five-year plan. But even with Somalia is burdened with more than one million refugees from the Ogaden war inputs of foreign aid, principally from the European Community countries and China, this rump plan is unfulfilled. em Kenya and the Ogaden. The latest Siad Barre travelled to Jeddah. But, One mini ster admitted to me: " All gov- crackdown by the Kenyans has been according to one Kenyan participant in ernment revenues go to maintaining interpreted by some observers as an at- the meeting, the Somalis declined to basic services, to relief work, to help tempt to cow the Somalis at a time sign a declaration confirming the boun- refugees. We have no local funds avail- when their fortunes are at a low ebb. daries between the two states as those able to match foreign aid." A senior Somali official suggested to obtaining at Kenyan independence. Somalia somehow keeps going, with me that the blow came at the very time With regard to Djibouti, which the help of invisible earnings, notably that Somalia was putting out concilia- achieved independence from France in remittances from Somalis working tory feelers toward Kenya. After all, 1977, the SDR has been even more abroad and payments for local pur- Somalia is undergoing its second major circumspect. This caution has been chases and services by foreign govern- drought in less than a decade; it is bur- dictated by a number of factors: the ments and relief agencies. dened with more than one million refu- democratic nature of the Djibouti gov- Politically, President Siad Barre has gees from the Ogaden war; it has yet to ernment, the ethnic balance in the hardened his authoritarian style. Moves find a replacement for the economic country between Somalis and non- from military rule to Soviet-style insti- and military aid it received from the Somali (though related) Afars, the con- tutions have slowed in the light of the Soviets; the implementation of so- tinued French military presence, the events of the past few years. Although cialism followed by the sudden with- likelihood of a massive countermove the president seeks to strike a balance drawal of its foreign backers has left the from Addis Ababa in any development among the Somalia clans and tribes, his state-controlled economy in a sham- toward a Somali takeover of one of own clan and his own relatives occupy a bles; Somalia needs to show a less ag- Ethiopia's principle lines of access to disproportionate number of key jobs. gressive face, especially to pro-West- the sea— not to mention preoccupation An attempted military coup in 1978 was ern Kenya, in order to attract Western with other problems. unsuccessful, and the leaders were exe- backing. The Somalis are in no posi- At the best of times, Somalia itself is cuted. Exiled opposition groups base tion, and this is hardly the time for one of the world's poorest countries, themselves variously on Siad's alleged them, to be opening up the Kenyan depending upon international charity to narrowing ethnic base or on his alleged front, the official said. keep going. And these are not the best straying from Marxist orthodoxy. Not- In 1979 King Khalid of Saudi Arabia of times. The Somali Vice-President, able among them is the Somali Salva- attempted to mediate in the Kenyan/ Hussen Kulmiye Afrah, remarked in a tion Front (SSF), supported by Somali dispute. Presidents Moi and statement to the UNHCR in September Ethiopia.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 In his speech on the 1980 anniversary the United States could actively seek to groups thai sprang up after the revolu- of the October 21 revolution, President undermine the government of Ethiopia tion were mercilessly exterminated. Barre admitted that tribalism was re- and seek confrontation with the Soviets In the conflict between urban guer- sponsible tor much of the political ten- and their allies. The choices to be made rilla "white terror" and government sion within the country. He also admit- between these and intervening options vigilante "red terror" in 1977-79. ted that the government and its state necessitate consideration of recent his- thousands of Marxists, students, work- institutions were in part responsible for tory. ers, and other potential rivals to Men- the desperate economic condition of the If Ethiopia were a U.S. ally, there gistu' s power were eliminated. The op- country and promised to dismantle "the would be justified domestic protest at position, for its part, killed thousands cumbersome bureaucracy." association with such a bloody regime. of government leaders and supporters. This nation is now urging the United Mengistu climbed to power by person- This struggle for power at the center States to replace the Soviet Union as its ally ordering the killing of potential ri- took place at the same time that the military ally. (A congressional stipula- vals. The Dergue. originally number- Ethiopian empire was threatened with tion thai no military deliveries should ing about 130. has been reduced to disintegration on all sides. take place while regular Somali troops about 30, with an inner core of half a The Eritreans, who had been strug- were active in the Ogaden has been dozen or so loyal supporters. gling against Haile Selassie's takeover complied with; they have been driven The elite that held power under Haile for two decades, took advantage of the out by the Ethiopian-Cuban-Soviet Selassie's feudal rule has been killed, confusion in Addis Ababa to step up forces). imprisoned, driven into exile, or their independence campaign. By the cowed. The leaders of the students and beginning of 1978 they controlled 90 In return. Somalia has offered mili- workers, who prepared the way for the percent of the countryside in Eritrea and tary facilities, notably the naval and air military takeover, have seen their lead- many of the cities and towns as well. force base built by the Soviets at Bcr- ership destroyed. Even me Marxist Before the Soviet arms supply and the bera. In his October 1980 speech. Presi- dent Siad justified the military agree- ments with the United Slates as bolstering peace and security and the sovereignty of states. The agreements "in no way jeopardize the interests of other states but on the contrary would contribute to peace and stability in the region," the president said. He continued, "Ethiopia is fulfilling part of an overall wide-ranging strategy of other powers, aimed at the countries in eastern Africa, the Indian Ocean, and the Gulf area. Instead of making false accusations against Somalia, one won- ders why the Ethiopian, Libyan, and South Yemeni regimes fail to face the reality in their own countries. Do they not realize that they constitute floating military bases themselves? Are they not the ones who are risking the peace and security of the entire region by allowing the deployment of substantial foreign forces on their soil, thus paving the way for the counterdeployment of similar other foreign forces in the region?" With regard to Ethiopia, the possi- bility at one end of the scale of U.S. options is to wait, in the hope that the Ethiopians will get rid of Chairman Mengistu and his Soviet backers or that Mengistu will disembarrass himself of the Soviets, once they have served his Addis Ababa: "The Soviets' enormous commitment to Mengistu is not without purposes. At the other end of the scale, risks and disadvantages '

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 Women of the Ethiopian army: "Mengistu led the most dramatic social economic revolution in Africa"

flow of Cuban troops to the Ogaden Eritrea. Nevertheless, its troops in the With the help of a largely compliant theater, they were poised for final vic- Ogaden freed Ethiopian units for the bureaucracy, prepared to change one tory. Eritrean campaign, and it is believed autocratic master for another, the Other regional/ethnic movements, that Soviets and Cubans were involved day-to-day government of Ethiopia has such as the Tigrean People's Liberation in the Eritrean operations at the plan- continued to function. In a few years, Front (TPLF), various groups among ning level. Mengistu has led the most dramatic so- the numerically predominant Oronio, Aiding the Ethiopian offensive is the cial and economic revolution in modern and traditionally rebellious groups like internecine warfare between the two Africa. Land has been transferred from the Afars were also pressing their strongest movements, the Eritrean feudal, church, and landlord ownership claims for freedom from Amhara People's Liberation Front (EPLF) and to those who till the soil. This demon- hegemony. At the height of their the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF). strably popular and populist measure power, these movements controlled The differences among these and other did much to keep the countryside calm. much of the countryside in their re- Eritrean groups strengthen Addis It has been a key factor in limiting the spective areas and often took over Ababa's hand militarily and politically. political alienation of the Oromos. In towns. Today they are reduced to tradi- Another branch of Mengistu's feudal times much of their land be- tional hit-and-run guerrilla tactics. strategy has been diplomatic. Follow- longed to Amhara landlords, the Even the WSLF does not make claims ing a rapprochement with President church, and the imperial family. to territorial control. Gaafar al-Nimeiry, the Sudan has The western Oromos, especially the This is the double debt Mengistu greatly reduced its backing for the educated, are mainly Christians of the owes to his Soviet and Cuban allies. He Eritreans. Within the immediate re- Mekane Jesus church, with Western has consolidated central authority gion, Ethiopia is now on good terms missionary links. The eastern Oromos throughout Ethiopia, and he has main- with all its neighbors except Somalia. are more likely to be Muslims. Hence tained that power in his own hands. The Sudan has maintained some sup- both groups had economic, religious, There are believed to be some 12,000 port for the Eritreans, enough to pre- and ethnic bases for hostility to the Cubans in fighting units in the country. pare a role as political arbitrator. One Coptic Amhara. The official atheism of Apart from those around Addis Ababa, reason President Nimeiry is serious the current rulers in Addis Ababa is no the majority are stationed in the Oga- about seeking a settlement for Eritrea is less appealing. Since Oromo speakers den. Cuba was not willing to commit the presence of 500.000 Eritrean refu- constitute up to 50 percent of the coun- troops to fight its erstwhile friends in gees in the Sudan. try's population, this regime must be as

8 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 keen as its predecessors to co-opt them. ble elements of the Soviet system, no- were poised along the border with the Many were in the original Dergue, and tably centralized control of key areas objective of invading Somalia. He some remain. such as security, information, trade compared the potential situation with Although atheism is the official unions, peasants' organizations, and what had happened in Kampuchea and philosophy, there does not appear to be now COPWE. Afghanistan. any general suppression of religion. The Soviets are believed to have sold The Soviets' enormous commitment The Ethiopian churches and mosques $1.5 billion worth of arms to Ethiopia to Chairman Mengistu is not without are full as ever; religious festivals draw on easy terms. Repayments have not risks and disadvantages for them. There larger crowds than political rallies; reli- yet started. But unless the debt is for- is the chance that he will turn against gious dignitaries have a place of honor given by the Soviets or Ethiopia de- them or that he will be assassinated or at state functions; and Mengistu's wife faults, it will take a large share of mea- overthrown. Beyond that, Ethiopia is is said to be a devout member of the gre foreign exchange earnings in the the traditional enemy not only of the Coptic church. future. Somalis but also of the whole Arab and The Soviets have also been helpful in The rural land changes were matched Muslim world. The fact that the official supplying oil to Ethiopia at less than by a similar urban measure, which lim- dogma has changed from Coptic Chris- world market prices. In recent months a ited each family to ownership of one tianity to Marxist atheism does nothing hardening of the tone of Mengistu's home. to diminish Arab hostility. public speeches — a reaffirmation of This is evident in the case of Eritrea, More recently, in response to Soviet the pro-Soviet line in international af- whose nationalist movements still re- pressures, the government has an- fairs and a firm commitment to further ceive support from radical as well as nounced that agricultural production socialist measures domestically — has from moderate Arab states. Among the will move from what is essentially a been noted. In February of this year the Arabs only the Marxist PDRY and cooperative system to a collective style Ethiopian leader attended the 26th Qaddafy's Libya have been enthusias- of organization. To many observers, Congress of the Communist Party of the tic supporters of socialist Ethiopia. As such a policy threatens to undermine Soviet Union (CPSU) in Moscow. Ad- noted, the Sudan, formerly a major peasant support for the regime, gener- dressing the congress, Mengistu de- supporter of Eritrean liberation move- ated by the land transfers. To date only clared: "Socialist Ethiopia is a priority ments, was reconciled with Addis some 30 organizations out of thousands target of international imperialism and Ababa last year. have been converted from coopera- forces of reaction with a vested interest tives. in the destabilization of the revolution- In addition to the risk of alienating If the pace of collectivization has ary process set in motion seven years the community of Arab nations to gain been slow, moves from military to ago" and added, "The revolutionaries one friend, some internal aspects arc proletarian dictatorship have been even of Ethiopia will heighten their con- also worrisome to the Soviets. Ethiopia more pedestrian. During the early years tribution to the strengthening of the is still an empire, ruled by a predomi- of the revolution there were attempts to proletarian internationalist cause." nantly Amhara elite. Besides, Chair- man Mengistu's bloody establishment co-opt some of the civilian Marxist Also in February 1981, Ethiopia and and maintenance of power must be groups into the power structure. Evi- the People's Democratic Republic of something of an embarrassment to dently Mengistu was not prepared to Yemen agreed in a joint statement "that them. risk sharing power with them. At the the feverish military activities of im- end of 1979 he announced the forma- perialist powers and the concentration They are very anxious to see a van- tion not of a party but of a Committee of their military forces in the Red Sea/ guard party formed, not only for for Organizing the Party of the Working Gulf/Indian Ocean littorals and the in- ideological reasons but also for the pur- People of Ethiopia (COPWE). It took stallation of U.S. military bases in pose of lessening their reliance on the six months from COPWE's inaugura- Somalia and Oman pose direct and seri- present leadership. A Marxist party tion to its first meeting, at which an ous threats ... to peace and security in would be a more dependable ally for executive consisting of Mengistu and ihe region." Moscow than the opportunist Men- six trusted military associates was Nor is Ethiopian support for Soviet gistu. selected for (he all-important Executive strategy limited to declarations. Ac- Economically Ethiopia is no great Committee. The meeting underlined cording to the Somali government, prize for the time being, although it has the fact that the institution was a front Ethiopia has leased naval bases in Mas- potential in the long run. The disloca- for continuing Mengistu's personal rule sawa and Assab to the Soviets, as well tion of the revolution, the struggles for when it declared: "All organs of as according them facilities at the power, the wars of secession, and the COPWE should follow [Mengistu's] Dahlak Islands and access to all civil redistribution of land caused a drastic- political line as the basis for day-to-day and military airports. In a letter to U.N. drop in agricultural production. The activities." Secretary General Kurt Waldheim in price of coffee, the leading export, has It must be remembered that Mengistu February 1981 the Somali permanent fallen. Ethiopia lacks an economic in- was brought up within the feudal sys- representative to the UN, Ambassador frastructure. Most people live half a tem. Haile Selassie's autocratic style is Ahmed Mohamed Adan, alleged that day's walk from the nearest road suita- his model, to which he has grafted via- Ethiopian, Soviet, and Cuban troops ble for a wheeled vehicle. Education

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 and social services are among the least 1980, the Ethiopian leader seemed to be support for Somalia, it is suggested, developed in the Third World. Devel- throwing down a gauntlet to Washing- the U.S. could harass Mengistu by opment of Ethiopia's agricultural and ton. He declared, "It seems obvious covertly backing the various insurgent mineral potential will require enormous that the American government is fuel- groups. Such help could be channeled external investment. ing the fire in the region, stocking through their present sponsors and The Soviets' ready abandonment of Somalia's expansionist war machinery, would not involve a direct U.S. pres- Somalia may give pause to other coun- and is realizing its strategic and im- ence. tries contemplating friendship with perialist objectives at the expense of the The question whether the United Moscow. A notable diplomatic debacle people of Ethiopia and Somalia. ... If States should be involved in under- resulted from the personal intervention the U.S. is determined to base its rapid mining an internationally recognized of President Castro of Cuba in 1977. deployment force in Somalia, then government by subversion and guerrilla His Soviet-backed plan for a confeder- Ethiopia and other countries in the re- warfare has extremely delicate moral ation of Ethiopia, Somalia, and other gion will have to resort to all available and political implications. There is also Red Sea states demonstrated ignor- measures to defend their unity and ter- the matter of consistency, especially for nance of, and insensitivity to, regional ritorial integrity. . . The situation may an administration elsewhere taking a realities. also force developing countries ex- strong line against terrorism. In spite of these setbacks and com- posed to the U.S.'s misguided policies Furthermore, it is rarely possible to plications, it cannot be denied that to take measures which will consid- keep such involvement secret for long. Moscow's involvement in Ethiopia is a erably change the present balance of Either locally or within the United success for them. They are on the power in the world ..." States, evidence of such covert ac- "correct" side in a matter dear to most Should we respond to this challenge tivities will be made public, causing Africans — the maintenance of existing by standing up to Ethiopia and its pow- political and diplomatic embarrass- boundaries. They have access to bases erful allies with all available means? It ment. and facilities for operations in the wider is sometimes suggested that a disad- More fundamentally, is it a long- region and for future African activities. vantage of confronting Mengistu is that term interest of Washington to foster the disintegration of Ethiopia? The fragmentation of the empire could bring even greaier chaos to this unstable re- gion. Besides, many diplomatic observers in Addis Ababa do believe that Men- lc MflRXISM L£NINI5M gistu could change his orientation. Ac- cording to their view, he is motivated by nationalism and by personal ambi- tion. The alliance with the Soviets and the mouthing of Marxist rhetoric, they suggest, merely serve these ends for the time being. When circumstances change, he will be ready to shed the Soviets and their ideology. These ob- servers further point out that the Eastern bloc countries do not have the resources to help Ethiopia's economic advance. So when attention turns to economic development, Addis Ababa will have "Moscow's involvement in Ethiopia is a success for them" no option but to open to the West. They note that the basically We stern-oriented bureaucracy repre- They have an acceptable African proxy such a posture will drive Ethiopia more sents an ally in such a process. The that could be used in a role similar to firmly into the arms of Moscow and that West is a major purchaser of Ethiopian that accorded to Moroccan troops by it reduces prospects for an eventual products. (Nearly half of its coffee is the West. rapprochment between Addis Ababa sold to the United States.) Ethiopia is a Given the firmly anti-Western stance and Washington. Skeptics believe that recipient of aid from the European of Chairman Mengistu and the en- the chances of a change of heart in Community, whose individual mem- trenched position of the Soviet Union Addis Ababa are extremely slight and bers also have assistance programs. and its allies, what options are available do not justify trimming the direction or Nor has the Eastern presence changed to the United States? At a press confer- thrust of U.S. policy in the region. the Western orientation of Ethiopia's ence in Addis Ababa on September 18, In addition providing to vigorous imports. Machinery and motor vehicles

10 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 are from Europe, and Ethiopian Air- lines buys its aircraft from the United States. There have been meetings in recent months of the compensation board, set up to deal with claims from nationalized American and other foreign corporations. Ethiopia needs to settle these issues to be eligible for preferential World Bank help. A recent editorial in the Standard of Nairobi seemed to reflect the thinking of moderate African governments. It declared: "It is becoming increasingly clear that, contrary to her expectations, the Soviet Union will not be able to use Ethiopia as one of the tools to further Russian imperialism in Africa. At least not while Col. Mengistu Haile-Mariam Somali President Siad Barre has hardened his authoritarian style — pragmatist, committed nationalist, and Pan-Africanist — is at the helm of that proud nation. ... In Ethiopia the program of economic aid. Nobody the invading Somalis back across the bear reckoned without the personality doubts that the Chinese would be as border during the Ogaden war and of Mengistu Haile-Mariam. He is no- active as any Western nation in con- undertook only a few desultory air body's puppet. He is first and foremost fronting the Soviets. Their experience strikes into Somalia during the cam- an Ethiopian, committed to the welfare in guerrilla warfare could be of value to paign. But should the Somalis be em- and independence of his country and his the various groups seeking to under- boldened to reopen the war, the Ethio- people." mine the Ethiopian empire. In this way pians have hinted at far more drastic A variation of this viewpoint is to the United States could achieve most of reactions. They have the capability to suggest that although Mengistu person- the benefits of confronting the Soviets, respond by aerial attacks on Mogadishu ally may be totally committed to the with none of the risks. — or Berbera. Soviets, the alliance will not outlast Other voices are pressing Washing- Such a scenario could place ihe him. Because he is so unpopular and ton to reinforce its support for Somalia, United States in an extremely tricky has so many enemies, so it runs, who- which comes to the same thing as con- situation. If Americans were killed and ever succeeds Mengistu after his death fronting Ethiopia. Moderate Arab wounded in aerial attacks undertaken or removal will want to break with states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia by the Ethiopians and their allies, there those who maintained him in power. If would welcome a greater U.S. role in would be a great risk that the United the United States confronts the Ethio- Somalia, even though they have reser- States could be drawn into the conflict, pian state, by supporting those seeking vations about the SDR's irridentism on the "wrong" side in the eyes of the to undermine and fragment it, we rule and its Marxist philosophy. Yet per- international community. out prospects of a rapprochement not ceptions of Somalia as the spoiler in the Together with other facilities in the only with Chairman Mengistu but also region among African states and among region, Berbera has incremental value with those who succeed him, it is sug- the international community generally to U.S. strategic requirements. Yet the gested. also weigh heavily. dangers of military cooperation with One option that seems worthy of U.S. military association with So- the SDR are considerable, and a bel- consideration is to draw back from mali irridentism would risk setting us ligerent stand against Ethiopia could be closer association with Somalia, leav- against OAU principles. Over 50 Afri- even more damaging to American ing the field for others. This could mean can states (one-third of the international interests. regional powers, such as Egypt and community) together with most of their Checking Soviet successes in the Saudi Arabia. Even more creatively, it friends would be ranged against us if Third World may be a legitimate could mean allowing the Chinese a free the SDR attacked Ethiopia again. And foreign policy objective for the United hand. This strategy has considerable the outcry would be led by Kenya, a States. But confronting the Soviet appeal. There would be ideological staunch ally of the West, which is also Union when it is in a strong legal and compatibility. The Somalis would be providing the United States with mili- political position could prove counter- spared the embarrassment of eating tary facilities and is about to assume the productive. Far from undermining the their Marxist rhetoric. The Chinese chairmanship of the OAU. Soviets, it risks according greater have already begun supplying military The Ethiopians, for their part, have legitimacy to their role while eroding hardware to the Somalis, notably always been careful to maintain a cor- our own credibility and standing in Af- MiGs. They also have an established rect legal stance. They did not pursue rica and the Third World. •

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 11 INTERVIEW

Dr. Mohamed Sheikh Aden, Somali Minister of Information and National Guidance

INTERVIEWED BY ANTHONY J. HUGHES

AFRICA REPORT: What was the ideology of the 1970 have an effect on each other, be it economically, ideologi- Somali revolution? cally, or politically. The extent of this interrelation will depend on how close they come together in different fields. ADEN: The main objective of the revolution has been to AFRICA REPORT: Mr. Minister, behind you 1 see a map transfer the economy from the hands of the new colonial marked "Somali Territory," which shows parts of Ethio- masters, the petite bourgeoisie orcompradores who brought pia. Kenya, and Djibouti as being part of that Somali terri- products from the industrialized countries and, without pro- tory. Can you tell me in more detail what your policy is ducing anything, reaped profits from the masses. That was towards ethnic Somalis currently under other nations? our aim and by breaking away from that pattern we arrived ADEN: The Somali nation has been divided into parts and at the socialist system. When one brings up the term so- that is a matter of history. When two parts of the present cialism, the pattern that springs to mind is the absolute one Democratic Somali Republic, the northern and southern re- practiced by the Soviet Union and its European allies. We gions, gained their independence in I960, within four days believe, however, that the kind of socialism we are imple- they formed a unified republic. That indicates to you how menting in our country must take into account the environ- the Somali people feel—that they are the same nation, the mental conditions and values of our society. We saw that same people. There were no problems, no hindrance to- there are many paths by which one could achieve a socialist wards the achievement of that unity. The Italians colonized transformation. For example, we implemented and adopted the southern part for 100 years, while the British colonized certain reforms in the agricultural field. In our country, we the northern part for about 80 years. It was the Somalis' have 16 million acres of cultivable land, made fertile by belief that wherever they may be, they are one and they either rain or river waters. Under cultivation already was have the right to be unified. We realized that as of 1970 between 14,000 and 16,000 acres. There was no reason to many countries were cynically refusing to understand the implement any reforms on the already cultivated lands. We nature and truth of the situation. Therefore, since 1970, the decided to cultivate the remaining fertile lands already at birth of our revolution, it has been the policy of the Somali our disposal. We had no problem of royal families or government, if unity could not be achieved, to support the classes, as all of the land was owned by the government. right of freedom for the Somalis wherever they are. We AFRICA REPORT: Your country was close to the Soviet accept the fact that when they reach their right to indepen- Union; you quarreled with them and you are now closer to dence, they have a choice, either to stand by themselves as Western countries. You are to buy arms from the United an independent state, or to unite with the Somali Demo- States; Western countries have been helpful to you in your cratic Republic; or to unite with whatever state they want. economic crisis, supplying you wilh oil, helping with the For example, we supported Djibouti independence. Since refugee problem. Is there also to be a reflection of a more they have chosen to become a state we supported them. We pro-Western ideology as a result of this greater friendship sponsored their membership in the United Nations and in the with the West? Organization of African Unity. The Somali government has ADEN: For some time, there has been cooperation be- no intention of uniting any Somali part into its own republic. tween us and the Western nations, as you mention. Both the This is mere propaganda created by others, or other govern- United States and European countries are helping us in ments, to support the motives that they have against the many areas. There is understanding and a general frame- Somali state. Hence we declare our belief that the people of work of cooperation, which is natural, and the countries will Western Somalia have the right to self-determination. If they

12 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 choose, when the right of self-determination is given to them, the affairs of Cambodia, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, to remain within Ethiopia, then we have no objections what- etc. Whatever the Soviet Union may call itself, it seems soever. Whal we cannot accept is for the Western Somalis to apparent that they consider their own interests to be far be colonized, to be looted, to have barbaric actions underta- greater than the interests of the smaller nations. The rela- ken against them. tions that exist are government-to-government; we have The issue of the NFD. the Northern Frontier District, is diplomatic ties. But 1 am of the belief that our relations quite different. Kenya is not a colonial government and they cannot be improved in the near future. haven't colonized the NFD as Ethiopia did to Somalia. AFRICA REPORT: In general terms, how would you Kenya was under British colonial rule, as was the NFD. The characterize relations between the United States and the kind of British administration there was quite different than Somali Democratic Republic now? what was evolving in Kenya itself. Before Kenya's inde- ADEN: 1 believe that our relations are like those between pendence, the British held a referendum in the Northern two countries that want to have relations, but are still suspi- Frontier District giving people a choice; and over 86 percent cious of each other. It is quite difficult to expect, after 10 of the inhabitants of the NFD opted in 1963 to become free years of strained relations, that in a short time we can have and unite with the Somali Democratic Republic. The region the best relations. I believe there is a need at this time for was amalgamated within Kenya because the British had building understanding and to create confidence between more interests in Kenya. That is not to say that Kenya is the two states. responsible for this creation, but it is the British who were AFRICA REPORT: How do you perceive American help responsible. This problem exists, and we, the Somali and with the refugee problem, with the drought, and economic the Kenyans, must have the wisdom to come up with a assistance generally? Has it been sufficient or would you solution to it. in the best interests of the people. like even closer cooperation at those levels? AFRICA REPORT: Turning to other areas, Mr. Minister, ADEN: The Americans have done quite a lot, on the

Somali army with Soviet weapons: "Our request to the U.S. is to assist us to be in a position to defend our statehood' could you characterize your relations now with the Soviet humanitarian aspects and with regard to the refugees. But to Union and where you hope they might develop in the com- cope with the present needs, as well as with the increasing ing years? number of refugees, we need even greater assistance. As for ADEN: The question is quite a difficult one. Our relations ihe refugee problem, we don"t think food aid can solve it. are not good at the present time because we think the Soviet We think a fundamental solution is urgently needed, with Union has taken actions that are against our interests. Re- the assistance of the Americans and others such as the member that the Soviet Union has invaded and intervened in Ethiopians, who are creating the problem.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 13 United States to help find an honorable framework for solv- ing the problems of the Horn, as it has tried to do in the Middle East. AFRICA REPORT: Arc you not afraid, Mr. Minister, that the Americans, if they move into this region, will have their own agenda? If they come to this area, will they view it in terms of their position vis-a-vis the Soviet Union and its establishment in Ethiopia? Are you not worried about bring- ing those kinds of conflict into your region? ADEN: 1 feel that may occur, as you suggest. We would not want the Americans to be involved in Somalia because the Russians are on the other side in Ethiopia. Rather, we are trying to find a way to oust Russia from Ethiopia. We are not of the opinion that the United States is seeking a foothold in Somalia for its own interests. But we are of the belief that as a world power, the United States can help solve the broader problems of the Horn. We know that the Americans have their own interests, but one of their inter- ests is to help find a general, just, and honorable peace in the area. AFRICA REPORT: Apropos of that Mr. Minister, what is Somalia's purpose in permitting the United States to have military facilities in this country? ADEN: There are many interests that Somalia has. We know that the Soviet Union assists the Ethiopians with its weapons and involved the Cubans militarily on their side. On the other side of the Red Sea, in Southern Yemen, there are Russian bases. Our sovereignty is in danger. Our request to the U.S. is to assist Somalia to be in a position to defend its statehood. Also, we would like the United States to aid us economically, to strengthen our development program, "We would like the U.S. to aid us economically, to which has been harmed by war. refugees, drought, and strengthen our development program" other natural disasters. AFRICA REPORT: The Reagan administration, in de- fining its policy towards Africa and the Third World, has AFRICA REPORT: Do you mean, Mr. Minister, that you indicated that it will be focusing and targeting on certain would like to see the Americans involved diplomatically in countries where the U.S. clearly has interests. Within that solving the broader issues of Somali ethnics in other coun- framework, why would you think the United States should tries? focus particularly on Somalia? ADEN: It is not only the Somalis. but the problem of the ADEN: Since we are in a strategic position neighboring the Horn of Africa as a whole; the Eritrean issue, the Western Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and the Red Sea, we believe that Somali issue, the Oromo issue, the relations between the relations with Somalia are an important component of two countries of Somalia and Ethiopia. We would like the American policy towards this whole region. •

0 - —~S0^^H lus, ^i>Wi SUMS W**? '* S TO P R USSIAH ANP C(iSAN AGGRESSION IN THE —

Mogadishu: "Our relations with the Soviet Union cannot be improved in the near future"

14 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 INTERVIEW

Mohamed Diriye Urdoh, Secretary-General of the Western Somali Liberation Front

INTERVIEWED BY ANTHONY J. HUGHES

AFRICA REPORT: What are the aims of the Western nations, so our response to them is hit and run. That is the Somali Liberation Front (WSLF)? method of guerrilla war. Our main aim is whenever they URDOH: The goal of the Western Somali Liberation Front launch an offensive, we disturb their aim and scatter them is to free the land from the oppression of the Amharas and Ethiopia. AFRICA REPORT: What is your view of the claim of the Somali Democratic Republic to incorporate Western Somalia within the SDR? URDOH: There is no such claim. AFRICA REPORT: Mr. Secretary-General. I saw a map this morning in the office of the minister of information of the SDR, showing Western Somalia as part of Somali terri- tory. URDOH: You know there are many maps issued by differ- ent groups. But the question is who made the map, is it made by a few people, by colonialists? The maps you men- tion reflect the politics and propaganda of the colonizers who are anxious to place obstacles in the way of our strug- gle for the independence of Western Somalia. One must follow the map that we, the fighters of Western Somalia, have already made, not maps made by others. AFRICA REPORT: Sorry to pursue this, Mr. Secretary- General, but do you mean you are seeking total, separate independence for Western Somalia? URDOH: The question will be answered when we get our freedom. Then, it will depend on the voice of the people; the masses will decide. AFRICA REPORT: What is the current situation in West- ern Somalia? URDOH: You must understand our position. We are struggling with strong nations, not only against the Ethio- Mohamed Diriye Urdoh, secretary-general of the Western pians, but against their friends—Russians, Cubans, and Somali Liberation Front others. AFRICA REPORT: By my question, 1 also meant what are the acts being carried out by the Eithiopians and their so they do not reach their goal. If the Ethiopians succeed in allies, and how are you responding to their actions? their offensive, or if the guerrillas cannot handle them, the URDOH: As you know, the struggle is not between two Ethiopians will try to implement their policy of eradicating governments, but is between guerrilla fighters and strong the people who are living in the country.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 15 AFRICA REPORT: Turning to the Western Somalia Lib- and the enemy was getting aid from the outside and the eration Front, does it have an ideology? Is it Marxist, is it a situation was at its worst, the Somali government gave a bourgeois party? few soldiers to strengthen our struggle. In 1978, the Somali URDOH: At the moment our main aim is everything to the government withdrew their troops and after that not a single war. We do not have any ideology, either Western or East- soldier from Somalia is in the country or participating in our ern. Maybe there are elements or individuals who believe in struggle. We can prove it to anybody who comes. We will an ideology. But overall, our goal is to get independence take them inside the country. There are many journalists with guns. who have been inside the country and who witnessed that no AFRICA REPORT: What do you think of U.S. policy in troops of Somalia are inside the Western Somalia Liberation this part of Africa? Would you like the United States to be Front. more active in the region? In particular, would you like even AFRICA REPORT: What is the normal population of some help from the United States? Western Somalia? How many of them are now refugees? URDOH: 1 do not see any U.S. aims in the region that are URDOH: As you know, the Western Somali people are in addressed toward us. Western Somalia. But we would wel- a colony, so we cannot give you an exact figure of the come any aid coming from other sources, the U.S. or other population. The population was given to be four million a countries. Our people would welcome and be thankful for few years ago. However, we estimate that the population of any aid. Western Somalia is seven million and above. The refugees AFRICA REPORT: Speaking of assistance from other in the camps are almost one and a half million and a half sources, the regular Somali Democratic Republic Army was million of the people are inside the country of Somalia, involved for a time. Would you welcome their participation either as dependent families, or they have temporary jobs, again, or do you want them to keep out of the struggle? or are drifters. All in all the refugees inside the country of URDOH: During 1977 when our struggle was so strong Somalia number at least two and a half million. •

WSLF rebels: "Our goal is to get independence with guns"

16 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 REAGAN AND AFRICA

Which Way in Southern Africa?

BY JOHN SEILER

THE PROBLEM FOR li.S. POLICY Security Adviser Richard V. Allen have pointedly stressed in public state- Can the Reagan administration re- ments South Africa's importance to the solve the continued conflict over United States and the limits of our abil- Namibia's future? Or will its regional ity to influence change within the re- policy fail because of a basic misread- taining a complex multisided diplo- public. Parallel statements about inter- ing of political dynamics in Namibia, matic process in which all participants national terrorism in Angola have led to South Africa, and elsewhere in the re- — SWAPO. the South African gov- the administration's request for con- gion, and as a result contribute to ernment, the Frontline states, the West- gressional repeal of the Clark Amend- exacerbated regional conflict and the em contact group, and the UN Secretar- ment banning covert aid in the Angolan increased risk of superpower confron- iat •— made substantial accommoda- civil war, suggesting immediate U.S. tation in southern Africa? tions. support for UNITA, although in fact the Although Carter administration re- The new administration has already repeal would only take effect in the new gional policy failed ultimately to secure jeopardized the prospects for continued fiscal year starting October 1. Finally, South African acquiescence in a UN- negotiations in this framework by a in mid-March, separate U.S. visits by a supervised transition tor Namibia, it number of actions and inactions that group of senior South African military deserves considerable credit for main- have conveyed strong (if partly unin- intelligence officials and Dirk Mudge tended) signals to negotiation partici- and other leaders of the Democratic pants. First, understandably reluctant Turnhalle Alliance (DTA). now gov- John Seiler taught at Rhodes Univer- to automatically approve the policy of erning Namibia with South African en- sity in South Africa from 1972 through the outgoing administration, it over- dorsement, created considerable em- 1976. He did research in Namibia in reacted by refusing even an observer barrassment for the State Department, 1976 and again in 1979. He is the role at the January Geneva conference, at a time when Chester A. Crocker's editor of Southern Africa Since the Portuguese Coup, published by fueling a suspicion that it intended to appointment as assistant secretary of Westview Press in 1980, and writes reach some agreement with South Af- state for African affairs lacked pre- The Seiler Report, a monthly analysis rica outside of the UN context. Since requisite Senate confirmation. of southern African issues in U.S. poli- January. President Reagan, Secretary Whatever the motives underlying tics. of State Alexander Haig, UN Ambas- these various acts, and whatever form sador Jeane Kirkpatrick and National southern African policy finally takes,

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 17 the U.S. government is now perceived from the remainder of South-West Af- government. Existent ethnic adminis- on both sides of the regional dispute as rica, thus reducing substantially the trative authorities would serve as the supportive of Pretoria's interests and an black-white imbalance in that territory. second tier and racially determined opponent of black-African interests. These informal talks made no dis- townships as the third. Only in the first With this quick crystallization of per- cernible headway until the U.S., U.K., tier, or central government, would ceptions, it will be extraordinarily dif- and France joined in a pointed reminder there be multiracial government. At ficult for the Reagan administration to in early 1975. At that time, Pretoria that level, the South African proposal generate the mutual trust and willing- decided to launch a formal constitu- demanded an unwieldy consensus of all ness to accommodate required to bring tional conference for Namibia. 11 ethnic groups before any policies an early end to the Namibian conflict That conference — the Turnhalle could be initiated. Although most of the and to initiate the policy of constructive conference, named after the refur- black delegates accepted the principle engagement for both the republic itself bished Windhoek gymnasium where its of devolution of power, they wanted the and the entire region that Crocker in- sessions were held — only began in central government to implement sightfully recognizes as indispensable September 1975. SWAPO and the energetic national development pro- for U.S. interests. various nonethnic parties based in grams that they rightly recognized to be Windhoek were excluded. Instead, a sine qua non if their own leadership THE EVOLUTION OF THE each ethnic group was represented by was to survive SWAPO's challenge. NAMIBIAN SITUATION elected officials or by men appointed by Although white condescension and Until multilateral Western diplo- the South African administration. even racism surfaced in the discussions macy began in April 1977, South Af- Turnhalle met only four times be- and embittered many of the black par- rica had to contend with no more than tween September 1975 and June 1976, ticipants, the open discussion and the intermittent and usually uncoordinated and then in August 1976 it presented modest steps proposed toward multira- demarches from the U.S. and other formal recommendations. For the first cial government were novel for Western governments concerned about time, an early date for independence Namibia and generated some optimism the Namibian stalemate. Those inter- was set — December 31,1978 — in a among both blacks and whites. ventions came just before scheduled "single political entity" whose struc- Despite its satisfaction with Turn- Security Council sessions and were in- ture remained unspecified, but in which halle's progress, the South African tended to elicit from Pretoria some protection of minority rights would be a government scrapped the constitutional demonstration of change that the West- central concern. The naive goal of a conference with alacrity in its first re- ern governments could then present to benign, independent greater Ovambo- sponse to the concerted Western dip- the Security Council as justification for land was finally put to rest. lomatic pressure that started in April their vetoes of sanction resolutions. In Turnhalle did begin discussions of 1977. Pretoria appointed an adminis- general, South Africa responded to institutional structure based on the trator-general, Judge Marthinus Steyn, these requests, often making substan- South African proposal for a three-tier ostensibly to bring Namibia to inde- tial changes in political and constitu- tional arrangements, but never moving far from what it construed as the un- derlying principles of separate devel- opment. South Africa's pattern was set during the 1972 Waldheim-Escher visits to Namibia, with a joint statement agree- ing on the goal of self-determination leading to eventual independence, but with the UN version referring to "self- determination for the people of Nami- bia" and Pretoria's version calling for "self-determination for the peoples of Namibia." In September 1974, in re- sponse to Western pressure, South Af- rica prompted the territory's National party leadership to accept informal talks with other ethnic groups about Namibia's future. At that time, South African policy called for encourage- ment of a greater Ovamboland, in- cluding Namibian Ovambos with those in southern Angola, which would eventually gain independence separate Western Five at January Geneva Conference on Namibia

18 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 pendence under UN supervision. In United Nations prepared a plan for se- with SWAPO and shift the negotia- practice, Stcyn implemented South curity transition. Its abrupt dismissal by tions' focus away from South Africa. In African policy with no regard to UN Ahtasaari and Waklheim left the South its call for the conference, the Sec- priorities. His first steps seemed at the African government, and particularly retariat played down the South African time like a dramatic start to rapid social the South African Defense Force, feel- priority, insisting that the DTA (and change. In an obvious bid to woo urhan ing betrayed and cynical about the any other parties willing to take part) blacks to South African policy, he im- Secretariat's motives. could come only as a constituent of the mediately ended segregation of Wind- Nothing productive happened in South African delegation. hoek's hotels and restaurants and Namibia during 1979. Although the The Secretariat's hope that South promised to open all residential areas. constituent assembly was given legis- Africa would be mollified by a public That move, in fact, took well over a lative powers in May. it preoccupied platform for the DTA and would, in year to complete, and desegregation itself with mundane administrative turn, accept a March 31, 1981 cease- was never extended to Windhoek's matters, instead of dealing with resid- fire and Namibian independence by the schools, hospitals, or employment. ual segregation or launching a national end of that same year proved naive. In Outside the capital, no effective de- development program. A new admin- fact, the Geneva conference of January segregation occurred in any sphere. istrative-general. Professor Gerrit Vil- 7-14, 1981 demonstrated more vividly For the rest of 1977 and 1978, Na- joen, former rector of Rand Afrikaans than ever before the South African mibian political life stagnated, al- University and Broederbond chairman. commitment to its conception of Na- though hope was stirred briefly in April was appointed in August. Despite his mibia's political future. No agreement 1978 by South Africa's acceptance of a verliifte (enlightened, progressive) was achieved on a cease-fire date. In- transition plan negotiated by the West- reputation, he spent his short term stead, Dirk Mudge made an extended em contact group. After considerable (through August 1980) placating con- attack on the UN's partiality toward pressure from the Frontline states, servative whites in the territory and SWAPO, and Dame Hough, Viljoens SWAPO accepted the plan in July. made no addition to the modest steps replacement as administrator-general, Hopes for a rapid settlement were shat- taken by his predecessor. On his de- bluntly called a cease-fire premature tered that same month, because of parture, Pretoria announced that a wide until such time as mutual trust could be South African anger at what was seen as range of executive powers —- including established. Western duplicity in supporting a Se- defense and police — would go to the UN optimism about the conference curity Council resolution (in tandem legislative assembly. Dirk Mudge, had some basis before the Reagan with Resolution 435 which established leader oi the Republican party — a electoral landslide in November, but the general framework for the transition moderate breakaway faction of the Na- within a week after that win, the South to independence) calling for South Af- tional party — formed a council of African government's diplomatic be- rica to negotiate with an independent ministers and became chief minister. havior grew strikingly equivocal. Pre- Namibia over Walvis Bay's future. The negotiations continued in a des- toria believed the new administration South Africa had been given no warn- ultory way during 1980. General Prem would support its Namibian policy and ing of this resolution's consideration, Chand was appointed as commander of therefore could see no justification to and, in any case, had no intention of UNTAG. the military supervisory team give in to UN pressures. giving up Walvis Bay. for the Namibian transition, and visited SOl'TH AFRICA'S PRESENT In September 1978, Pretoria an- Namibia and South Africa in January. POSTURE nounced plans for ethnic-based elec- During talks with Chand. the South South African confidence about its tions to a constituent assembly, insist- African government focused on the Namibian policy has been expressed in ing that it had no intentions of fore- proposal of a demilitarized zone made a number of ways since the Geneva closing an eventual agreement in doing by Agostino Neto, then Angolan presi- conference. Prime Minister Botha. so. A quick visit to Pretoria that same dent, and on UNTAG's capability to Foreign Affairs Minister R.F. (Pik) month by Secretary of State Cyrus effectively monitor the long Nami- Botha, Major General Charles Lloyd, Vance and contact group foreign bian-Angolan border against SWAPO the commander of the SADF forces in ministers only persuaded the South Af- incursions in the pre-election period. Namibia, Danie Hough. Dirk Mudge, rican government that nothing more Later in 1980, Pretoria brought the and others have spoken publicly of the than rhetorical pressure would come issue of UN partiality toward SWAPO total collapse of the UN framework for from the West. The elections were held to the center of its interchanges with the negotiations. in December. Secretariat. In hopes of quickly meet- In the same period, the SADF has Despite this unilateral step, hope was ing this concern, a high-level team launched major raids into southern An- aroused once more in January 1979, headed by Undersecretary Brian Ur- gola (one during the Geneva confer- when Martti Ahtasaari, acting as Kurt quharl visited Pretoria in October. No ence) and a bold attack on ANC offices Waldheim's personal representative, agreement was reached, and in order to on the outskirts of Maputo, Mozam- visited Namibia and then met Prime maintain some momentum in the nego- bique. The South African mission at the Minister P.W. Botha in Cape Town. tiations, the Secretariat conceded to the UN was downgraded to its previous During that irip. senior military offi- South African desire for a conference status as a nonambassadorial post even cials from both South Africa and the that would bring the DTA face-to-face before the General Assembly voted

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 19 against South African participation in and perhaps even ministerial posts. Its SADF raids into Angola will continue, the March debate on Namibia. Then, in chances of success remain very small. although in turn SWAPO's numbers mid-March, reflecting an incautious At the same time, training programs for will be recharged by recruits drawn cockiness about the Reagan adminis- black public servants, mostly in from the current crop of black draft- tration reaction, Pretoria authorized second-tier and third-tier administra- refusers who have been leaving the two "private" visits to the United tion, will be expanded. country since late last year, somewhat States — one by senior SADF intelli- Underlying this deepening commit- like their 1974 predecessors, although gence officers, and the other by Dirk ment is a basic difference between the less-educated and in smaller numbers. Mudge and senior DTA officials. South African perception of its Nami- SWAPO weaponry will be made in- What prompts this massive self- bian role and its perception of political creasingly sophisticated by infusions of confidence? Obviously pivotal is a developments in Mozambique, Zim- Soviet-bloc arms and advisers. And South African perception (whether or babwe, and elsewhere in the region. most depressingly, the present social not justified remains to be seen) of U.S. South Africa was never comfortable disintegration in the operational areas support for its Namibian and regional with the integrative goals of black of Ovamboland, Caprivi, and Kavongo policy objectives. But even if this per- nationalism for these other states and — due to the overall impact of SADF, ception proves exaggerated, the South gave both overt and covert support to South African Police, and SWAPO African government rightly assesses it- more agreeable alternative parties, but raids and coercion — will be enor- self as regionally preponderant in eco- it now takes pride in its pragmatic mously worsened. nomic and military power and incor- working relationships with these re- Beyond Namibia, the prospects for a rectly assumes that its black neighbors gimes. But it feels a deep responsibility wider regional accommodation will es- will accommodate to its own regional for Namibia and for what it sees as sentially disappear. The Frontline goals as a result. productive political development based states will have no political argument The implications for South African on a healthy acknowledgment of ethnic for dealing with South Africa. To the policy toward Namibia are clear. Danie differences. This moral commitment contrary, they will be compelled by Hough will relinquish his remaining weighs even more heavily than eco- their political principles to sacrifice executive powers to the Council of nomic or security calculations. In fact, short-term economic advantages and to Ministers and adopt a purely symbolic those calculations argue for early relin- give greater support for SWAPO and role. The development of a Namibian quishment of the territory. Security the ANC. At the United Nations, re- defense force, already underway, will lines would be better drawn at the newed efforts will be made to impose be accelerated. The DTA will renew its Orange River than at the Cunene. The mandatory sanctions. The United efforts to woo black political leaders — major mining interests, especially De- States will be forced to exercise re- from the Namibian National Front, the Beers, are ready to live with a SWAPO peatedly the veto that Reagan adminis- Namibian Independence party, and government, if need be. And the South tration officials have self-defeatedly in- SWAPO-Democrats — into the gov- African government anticipates the sisted will be their sole reaction to calls ernment with offers of assembly seats continuation of economic relations on for sanctions against South Africa. In the lines of those with Mozambique and casting its vetoes, the United States Zimbabwe. may find itself increasingly in dispute with the United Kingdom and France, who are more likely to abstain on sanc- IMPLICATIONS OF STALEMATE tions votes. Growing Nigerian anger at Continued South African support for the Namibian impasse cannot be slight- the DTA will not have immediate dras- ed, although a Nigerian embargo on oil tic consequences, but if continued over sales to Western countries seems un- the next several years it will bring a likely, at least as long as the present profound decay in territorial and re- production surplus continues. And, fi- gional stability. Black Namibian frus- nally, increasing Soviet-bloc aid to tration will grow rapidly, unless the SWAPO and to the Angolan govern- Council of Ministers starts a massive ment will pose temptations for greater program of economic and social devel- involvement to a U.S. administration opment — which, judging by its near- inclined to see unchallenged Soviet in- inertia over the past several years, volvement as a sign of U.S. weakness seems highly improbable. SWAPO can and a harbinger of longer-term com- only profit, while the powerless "mid- munist political successes. dle" parties lose their potential sup- port, and the DTA stagnates. Private investment, which has ebbed for sev- EARLY SIGNS OF A REAGAN eral years, will stay low, despite the REGIONAL POLICY Dirk Mudge of the Democratic Turn ha lie Alliance accused the United widespread commercial interest in Although no formal statement of Nations of partiality toward SWAPO mineral exploration and development. U.S. regional policy has been made (as

20 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 of late March 1981), the various first dation to South Africa, to the extent that gent such support was (at least briefly) steps mentioned earlier suggest an they can recognize some constructive in 1975, it makes no political sense emerging regional policy in which possibilities in South African regional now. The MPLA is Angola's govern- strategic and resource priorities will and domestic policies, and to their con- ment, however tenuous the constitu- dominate. Likely elements of Reagan structive impact on SWAPO (and po- tional process by which it grasped regional policy include: a willingness to tentially on the ANC). power and legitimacy. More practi- accept South Africa's Namibian policy, It must also recognize the painful as long as an independence date is set, truth about South African policy and even if the transition to independence administration of Namibia in these past takes place outside the UN framework; few years. Despite concerted (albeit covert efforts to strengthen UNITA, at intermittent) pressure from the Western least to the extent required to give it contact group. South African policy has bargaining power vis-a-vis the Angolan failed to achieve much of anything for government in a final settlement of their urban blacks and only marginally more political differences; the retention of for the masses of rural Namibians. It Walvis Bay by South Africa; and the has been a case of too little and — even use of U.S. economic aid to "buy off" if the DTA administrative pace quic- Zimbabwe and other regional govern- kens — in the larger political context ments to accede to these political acts far too late. //' the first steps taken by and, at the same time, to strengthen Judge Steyn in 1977 had been built on them against Soviet-bloc penetration. quickly, and particularly if the multira- Given the general language of Security cial central government had attracted Council Resolution 435 (1978), even the most competent blacks to its service these steps could be refitted into the UN and had taken decisive and bold steps framework for formal approval if they toward national development, even could somehow be made acceptable to now there might be some chance of Sam Nujoma's SWAPO will now win black regional regimes. Crocker would non-SWAPO forces winning a UN- any fair UN-supervised election probably want to do this, although supervised election. Senator Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) and These steps did not take place, partly other conservatives would prefer a re- because most moderate blacks chose cally, U.S. support for UNITA would gional policy taken altogether and ir- eventual international legitimacy over not achieve the goal of strengthening it revocably from the UN framework. immediate South African endorsement just enough to give it political parity, But this overall regional policy con- for their political activities, but even for the very act of support would bring tains at least two profoundly incorrect more basically because both the South increased political and military support assumptions. First, it assumes (as did African government and its DTA sur- for the Angolan government. The the September 1976 U.S.-U.K. plan for rogates failed to perceive the degree Cuban presence would not be reduced, Rhodesia) that the Frontline states and rapidity of change required. Of and even if the Cuban government would accept relegation to a passive course, SWAPO will now win any fair could not afford to send additional men, role in the settlement of the Namibian UN-supervised election, for the same other governments would do so, if re- conflict — and be placated by the balm reasons that Mugabe won overwhelm- quired. of economic aid in doing .so. Second, it ingly in Zimbabwe: only SWAPO's In supporting UNITA. the U.S. assumes that the South African gov- "boys" are actively challenging a re- would be effectively supporting South ernment, presently supremely self- gime that offers not even hope to African policy toward Angola, which confident about its survival, would ac- blacks. If Reagan policy succeeds in calls for destabilization by covert cede to even minimal U.S. require- achieving an internationally accepted means in order to buffer South African ments for a transition to Namibian in- election in two years time, which seems control of Namibian political develop- dependence. to fit the South African timetable for ment. Such support, like support for DTA readiness, SWAPO will gain an South African policy towards Namibia, even larger margin. At least, prompt makes no sense even when viewed acceptance of an election before the end through Reagan administration percep- HOW CAN U.S. POLICY BE MADE of 1981 might salvage some role for the tions. Chester Crocker has argued co- EFFECTIVE? best of the "middle" party leaders — gently for a policy of constructive en- An effective U.S. regional policy people like Zed Ngavirue, Andreas gagement in South Africa and in the must in the first instance keep the Shipanga, Kenneth and Ottilia Ab- larger region, but the successful im- Frontline states actively involved in rahams, Nora Chase — and perhaps for plementation of that policy rests on a negotiations over Namibia and other even a few of the DTA councillors. prompt resolution of the Namibian regional problems. More than a sop to Forsaking the temptation to support conflict within the UN context. Other- their dignity, doing so would be a rec- UNiTA must be another basic element wise, if the U.S. government starts ognition of their own tacit accommo- of U.S. regional policy. However co- such a policy vis-a-vis South Africa, it

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 21 can expect only increasing frustration for agreement between South Africa Foreign Relations Committee, publicly as South Africa presses for U.S. sup- and conservative Republicans, and the queried Secretary Haig about the im- port in its Namibian and regional effect on Chester Crocker's ability to pact in black Africa of repeal of the policies. Our potential willingness to control African policy imposed by the Clark Amendment. Although she will engage in a policy of constructive en- long delay in his confirmation, there support repeal and plans no hearings on gagement must be utilized as a lever to remains very little ground for optimism the issue, her sensibility might help to encourage South Africa to give up its about an effective regional policy defer any massive resort to covert ac- counterproductive control of Namibia. emerging during this administration. tivities in Angola following that repeal. Since sanctions make no sense, the Yet constructive engagement makes In the House of Representatives, U.S. has no other available lever. In much sense if appropriately im- Congressman Howard Wolpe (D- this light, the first steps in Reagan ad- plemented. Major U.S. business inter- Mich.), chairman of the Africa Sub- ministration policy seem both anoma- ests have a stake in a policy that treats committee of the Foreign Affairs lous and near-disastrous. Broad hints of with civility and gives credence to both Committee, may be tempted to bluntly support for South Africa have been ex- black African regimes and the South attack the entire Reagan administration pressed, while at the same time South African government. They have al- for its failing regional policy. But if he African policy in Namibia has been ready expressed their concern about the could find some common ground with granted tacit approval. impact of Reagan regional policy on Kassebaum and other moderate Re- The South African government has their overall African interests. publicans (and Democrats), then shown considerable shrewdness in en- Within Congress, especially if Chester Crocker would gain strength in couraging support from U.S. quarters. Senator Helms and his staff persist in what will be a continuing struggle to Conservative Republicans find such policy challenges that arc overbearing secure control of African policy from support reasonable and have little en- and irrational, some possibility of a Senator Helms and his cohorts. Such a thusiasm for constructive engagement, moderate Republican-liberal Demo- convergence behind a moderate policy which demands at least as much cratic coalescence will survive. To her could avoid disaster for U.S. African thoughtful criticism as it does sym- credit, Senator Nancy Landon Kas- interests and might, at best, result in a pathy. Given the bad start of the Reagan sebaum (R-Kans.) who chairs the Afri- truly constructive U.S. involvement in administration, the multifold grounds can Affairs Subcommittee of the that continent. •

Windhoek: Desegregation was never extended to the city's schools, hospitals, or employment

22 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 IN WASHINGTON

Reagan's Unruly Review

BY RICHARD DEUTSCH

he Reagan administration kept he made clear that neither those South "No. No." said Reagan. "I think. T I'.S. policy on southern African Africans who stand in the way of social though, that there's been a failure, issues officially "under review" dur- reform, nor those who call for violent maybe for political reasons in this ing its early months in power. But de- revolution in Pretoria, would enjoy country, to recognize how many peo- spite the review, statements were made U.S. support. ple, black and white, are trying to re- and decisions taken that may have Schifter's statement was not echoed move apartheid, and the steps they've long-range impact on the efficacy of in Washington, where the diplomatic taken and the gains that they've made. American policy in the region. spotlight remained focused on Central As long as there is a sincere and honest Soon alter Mr. Reagan's inaugura- America. The tough U.S. stance on HI effort being made, based on our own tion, Secretary of State Alexander Haig Salvador made liberals uneasy. Typical experience in our own land it would sparked a diplomatic offensive against were comments such as those of the seem to me that we should be trying to "communist aggression" in Central Washington Post's William Greidcr: be helpful. And can we again take that America. The intensity of Secretary "Think of the Cold War like college other course'.' Can we abandon a coun- Haig's til Salvador campaign attracted basketball, and Vietnam and El Sal- try thai has stood beside us in every war major national attention. So it was not vador as a series with the Reds. This we've ever fought, a country that is surprising that a statement on South time the U.S.A. has the home-court strategically essential to the Free World Africa by a U.S. official in mid- advantage. In diplomacy this is known in its production of minerals we all must February went largely unnoticed. as the Monroe Doctrine. The basic- have .... I just feel that if we're going The official, Richard Schifter. told coaching strategy seems to be: pick up a to sit down at a table and negotiate with the United Nations Commission on quick win in Central America, re-build the Russians, surely we can keep the Human Rights in Geneva that the team confidence, then take them on the door open and continue to negotiate United States abhors apartheid. Schif- road, maybe to Africa." with a friendly nation like South Af- ter said the racist system "makes it im- It was not until early March that con- rica." possible for the U.S. to develop the troversy over southern Africa began to type of relationship with South Africa simmer in Washington. Ironically, it President Reagan's statement raised that we would wish." He said, "The was President Reagan who turned up more questions than it answered. The United States cannot endorse a system the heat. State Department would not elaborate that is racist in purpose or effect." In a nationally televised interview. on the president's words, saying Schiftercalled South Africa "one of the Reagan was asked by retiring CBS mainly, "Our overall policy towards most serious offenders of human newsman Walter Cronkite: "Should the southern African region is still rights," yet added that, "we also hold [we] make the country a full-fledged under review." violence and terrorism in abhorrence." partner of the United States in the Reagan's comment was enthusiasti- The U.S. delegate recommended struggle against communist expansion'.' cally welcomed by white South African "dialogue" with South Africa to en- Should we drop all our concerns about leaders. Most African heads of gov- courage "evolutionary change." And human rights in South Africa? ernment remained silent, reserving

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 23 judgment. In Washington, however, settlement in Namibia. Few of the res- sign a letter to President Reagan. They partisans on all sides of the southern olutions before us contribute to the ob- urged the president to publicly endorse African debate began to gear up for jective," said Kirkpatrick. the UN plan for Namibian indepen- political battle. A little more than a week passed be- dence, and lo "press the government of On the same day of his CBS inter- fore internal Namibian leader Dirk South Africa to implement that plan." view. President Reagan announced the Mudge, head of the South African- "There is hardly a constructive al- nomination of Dr. Chester Crocker to sponsored Council of Ministers in ternative to working with all the parties be assistant secretary of state for Afri- Windhoek, flew into Washington. to implement the agreed-to plan for can affairs. Crocker's nomination had His visit was facilitated by Marion Namibian independence .... For been held back for weeks because of Smoak, a former senior Nixon admin- American silence is construed by Af- opposition from Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) istration official and a member of rica and South Africa alike as tacit en- and other right-wing senators. It also President Reagan's transition team. dorsement of South Africa's indefensi- became known in Washington that Mudge prefaced his visit with a letter to ble policies," said the letter. South Africa had selected a different President Reagan requesting a meeting. There was no reply from the White law firm to lobby for Pretoria's posi- In his letter, Mudge stressed: House and little from the State Depart- tions. One of the senior partners in the "SWAPO (The South-West Africa ment, which had a far more contentious firm, John Sears, had once managed People's Organization), as a visit on its hands to worry about. The Reagan's presidential campaign. communist-bloc terrorist surrogate, has day Mudge arrived, the State Depart- Crocker's nomination seemed to signal threatened to step up its violence. We ment had quietly told a group of five increased regard within the adminis- have predictable Soviet targets: the high-ranking South African military tration for moderate positions on south- largest uranium mine in the world and a and intelligence officers to leave the ern Africa. On the other hand, Sears1 deep-water port capable of basing a United States. The South African offi- new role appeared to presage a direct Russian nuclear fleet to bisect the oil cers had been invited to Washington by channel from Pretoria into the top ranks lifeline from the Persian Gulf." the right-wing American Security of the Republican party. Mudge said that internal Namibian Council, and had held substantive Meanwhile at the United Nations, parties are "impatient to achieve full meetings with Department of Defense debate began in the General Assembly independence of Namibia on an inter- and National Security Council offi- on the question of Namibia. Discussion nationally acceptable basis. However, cials. Their visit was clearly in defiance of that issue, however, was over- we will not agree to the sacrifice of our of established U.S. policy, which for shadowed by diplomatic theatrics on local self-government to a SWAPO two decades had generally complied the General Assembly floor. The South takeover, to impose a Soviet-oriented with the UN-mandated arms embargo African delegation, expelled in 1974 on dictatorship." against South Africa. the grounds that it did not represent the Mudge was refused a meeting with The State Department had learned of majority of South Africans, once again Reagan and allowed to enter the United the visit only after the officers had been took its place. States only for a "private visit." The in Washington for several days. Em- And once again the General Assem- Namibian leader spent much of his time barrassed, State Department officials bly ejected the South Africans. The in Washington meeting with members investigated, then told reporters that the United States and a handful of other of Congress and the press. He stressed officials had misrepresented them- Western nations opposed this decision. the themes of his letter to Reagan, selves while applying for visas in Pre- U.S. representative Jeane Kirkpatrick claimed that the South African- toria. The uproar over the incident insisted, as the U.S. had seven years sponsored National Assembly in would have been far greater, but for the before, that only the Security Council Namibia had been fairly elected by the attention gi ven other events of the week could expel a nation, and that every people. Mudge also asserted that the in Washington. member nation had a right to be heard. United Nations could not fairly super- That same week Washington news- A few days later the General Assem- vise elections in Namibia, as envisaged papers quoted unnamed U.S. officials bly issued its perennial call for trade under the UN plan, because of the Gen- as saying the administration was con- sanctions against South Africa because eral Assembly's recognition of sidering the idea of inviting South Afri- of Pretoria's intransigence on Namibia. SWAPO as "the sole legitimate repre- can Prime Minister P.W. Botha to Having noted Mr. Reagan's reference sentative of the Namibian people." As Washington for an official visit. Press to "friendly" South Africa, many de- proof of the UN's bias, he pointed to the reports said "high administration offi- legates thought Ambassador Kirkpat- General Assembly's refusal to seat the cials" felt a visit by Botha might break rick might vote against the resolution. South African delegation. the impasse over Namibia. The reports But along with other Western nations Alarmed by Mudge's visit, liberal also said that U.S. officials were con- working for the implementation of the and black-American groups in Wash- sidering inviting South African home- UN plan on Namibia, the United States ington began mobilizing. The Wash- land leaders to Washington. abstained. ington Office on Africa and TransAf- A visit by a South African prime "Our objective remains to secure a rica prompted more than 100 national minister would be unprecedented, and peaceful, internationally recognized civil rights, church, and labor leaders to would probably unleash a storm of op-

24 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 position from liberal, labor, and expected to become a major issue of pulsion of four U.S. diplomats from black-American groups in ihe United contention in Congress. Senator Nancy Maputo earlier in March. States. A visit by Botha would also Kassebaum (R-Kans.), chairwoman of Mozambique had ordered the expul- probably be taken as a deliberate affront the African Affairs Subcommittee, sion after charging the U.S. officials by many African nations, regardless of questioned the timing of the request, with running a Central Intelligence the results of the venture. But some saying it would send the wrong signals Agency spy ring in Maputo. Specifi- U.S. officials were also reported to feel to African nations. But despite the mis- cally, Mozambique said the CIA had that a visit to Washington would give givings of moderate senators and the helped South Africa locate the Maputo Botha leverage at home to deal with opposition of liberals, the Clark offices of the banned African National critics of his attempts to liberalize Pre- Amendment is expected to fall in the Congress. A South African raid on toria's racial policies. Senate, as it did last year. those offices in January resulted in the The State Department promptly and The critical battle over the Clark deaths of several ANC officials. repeatedly denied that visits by Botha Amendment will come in the House, The State Department countered that or homeland leaders were being con- where Africa subcommittee chairman Cuban intelligence officers had con- sidered. But usually reliable sources Howard Wolpe has announced he will vinced Mozambique to expel the say that, official denials to the contrary, fight to retain the law. Wolpe called the Americans, and had tried to force an both visits have been under considera- administration's request a "serious American diplomat to become a Cuban tion. mistake" and immediately planned spy. The affair might have ended with a While controversy raged over reports public hearings on the issue. Wolpe public U.S. protest, had not Soviet of a possible visit by Botha, South Af- will have the backing of the Africa sub- naval forces visited Maputo soon after rica launched major air raids against committee's former chairman, Stephen the South African raid. This reassured SWAPO bases in Angola, and the Rea- Solarz, who has promised "vigorous Mozambique, but it also set off alarm gan administration asked Congress to resistance" to repeal of the Clark bells among right-wing forces in repeal the Clark Amendment. That Amendment . Washington, especially in the Senate legislation prohibits U.S. aid to UNITA "The administration is about to em- where Jesse Helms was calling for the (National Union for ihe Total Indepen- bark on a course which will undermine use of food as a "foreign policy lever." dence of Angola) guerrillas fighting the the prospects for a negotiated settle- Right-wing forces pressured the White MPLA (People's Movement for the ment in Namibia, further entrench the House for action, the National Security Liberation of Angola) government in Cuban presence in Angola, jeopardize Council was reportedly sympathetic, Luanda. At the same time, reports our commercial interests, and set back and the order went out to stop the ship- reached Washington that UNITA our relations with a number of African ment of U.S. food to Mozambique. leader Jonas Savimbi was about lo ar- states," said Solarz. "If this is the first During the same week in Washing- rive in the U.S. capital to press his case shot in the president's policy towards ton the 40 million member National tor renewed U.S. military assistance Africa, it is sure to backfire." Council of Churches announced a re- against the Cuban-backed Angolan Private lobbies also joined the fray. newed campaign to oppose all U.S. government. The church-sponsored Washington bank loans to South Africa. A spokes- Secretary of State Haig went before Office on Africa announced a national man for the NCC said:' 'The banks can the Senate Foreign Relations Commit- campaign to retain the Clark Amend- make their choice, whether they want tee to appeal for an end to the Clark ment, charging lhat the Reagan admin- interest from their loans to South Af- Amendment as a matter of principle, on istration "seeks to make Angola the rica, or deposits from black people and grounds that the law " is an unnecessary testing ground for countering Soviet others who care in America." restriction on the ability of the president influence in southern Africa, as El Sal- The week ended with a widely re- to carry out his responsibilities." vador is in Central America." ported speech by National Security The State Department, anticipating House sources say crucial action on Adviser Richard Allen to a conserva- Savimbi's visit, said it would issue the the Clark Amendment is likely to come tive action convention in Washington. Angolan leader a visa and consult with in floor votes this spring. Those op- Allen said: "(personally don't consider him. The Carter administration had re- posed to repeal of the amendment say an improvement of relations with South fused Dr. Savimbi official meetings they are encouraged by the tone of cur- Africa as any stamp of approval of the during a prior visit. However, the State rent mail to the White House, reported system of apartheid, which 1 do not Department said U.S. policy on Angola to be running 10-to-l against further approve of, and which I feel deserves to had not changed, but remained "under U.S. involvement in El Salvador. be roundly condemned." However, review," adding that: '"We will be pre- Attention given the administration's Allen added that if the United States pared to hear the views of the MPLA plans for the Clark Amendment over- maintains ties with totalitarian nations, government in Luanda. We want to shadowed another Reagan administra- "then it makes equal sense that we have hear the views of all parties to the con- tion decision announced the same to maintain ties with people who do not flict." week: Washington would suspend all profess to be our enemies, and with The administration's request lor a food aid to Mozambique. This action whose systems we may differ radi- repeal of the Clark Amendment was was said to be in retaliation for the ex- cally .... We don't have to embrace

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 25 every facet of a nation's system to of African Unity Chairman Siaka Ste- White House did little to set the record maintain friendship." vens. Stevens suggested the OAU send straight. The following week marked the end a delegation to Washington to protest As a result, many observers found of President Reagan's second month in the administration's "interest in sup- themselves agreeing with the judgment office. The atmosphere surrounding porting South African backed rebels of a New York Times editorial: "Just U.S. policy towards southern Africa [UNITA] in Angola." two months at sea, the Reagan admin- grew increasingly tense. UN Ambas- The State Department responded by istration seems headed into a foreign sador Jeane Kirkpatrick was reported quickly inviting Nigerian Foreign policy fog of its own making .... The to have met with some of the South Minister Ishaya Audu to Washington style is not only disquieting, it may be African intelligence officers shortly for talks with Secretarty Haig and Dr. destructive. Even before policies have before they left the United States. The Crocker. Audu emerged from a three- been charted, the choices are being White House claimed that Ambassador hour meeting with Haig to express op- narrowed by heedless remarks and Kirkpatrick had not known the true timism that the United States and public posturing. A striking case in identity of the South Africans. The Nigeria would join efforts in promoting point is President Reagan's casual Congressional Black Caucus, recalling racial change in South Africa. He added stance on South Africa .... When will former UN ambassador Andrew that Nigeria was waiting for the Reagan the administration calculate where it is Young's resignation following disclo- administration to act. headed in Africa? Does it really care?" sure of his meetings with PLO repre- In a further response to African criti- Pressure continued to mount in sentatives, cried "foul." The Black cism, the State Department issued a Washington for the administration to Caucus demanded Ambassador Kirk- statement calling on African nations to make some decisions on the direction of patrick's resignation or dismissal. "reserve judgment" on Reagan ad- U.S. policy towards southern Africa. One Black Caucus member, Demo- ministration policies toward southern Rather abruptly, as the administration cratic Congressman Julian Dixon of Africa. U.S. officials began to broadly entered its third month, the first stage of California, introduced a resolution in hint in private that the "policy review" "policy review" came to a conclusion. the House calling on Reagan not to in- would soon be over, that some general U.S. officials let it be known that vite South African Prime Minister guidelines on U.S. policy towards the Angolan leader Jonas Savimbi had been Botha to visit Washington until his na- region would be forthcoming. persuaded by the administration to tion renounces apartheid. One voice conspicuously absent postpone his visit to Washington, A "In recent days there have been from the public forum during the "re- senior administration official would alarming signals that President Reagan view process" was that of Assistant lead a U.S. delegation to an OAU- will seek to totally reverse U.S. policies Secretary of State-designate for Africa, sponsored conference on African refu- toward South Africa and the region in Dr. Chester Crocker. As the Reagan gee problems. The administration sig- general.... Congress is deeply con- administration ended its second month, naled its support for Prime Minister cerned over administration policy in the Republic an-control led Senate Robert Mugabe's government in Zim- southern Africa, and we will not stand Foreign Relations Committee had not babwe: a three-year, $225 million aid by and watch our progress in this region yet even scheduled confirmation hear- package was pledged to the new na- reversed," said the Dixon resolution, ings for Dr. Crocker and other assistant tion's reconstruction efforts. which quickly picked up 30 co- secretaries, many of whom are opposed And finally, the administration an- sponsors. to right-wing Senate forces. nounced plans to dispatch Assistant Reaction to events in Washington The apparent impasse, along with a Secretary-designate Crocker on a mis- began to pour in from African leaders as highly publicized rivalry between Sec- sion to southern Africa. Crocker was well. Nigerian President Shehu retary Haig and senior White House expected to consult with leaders in Shagari. visiting London, called a news staff over foreign policy jurisdiction, Pretoria about promoting racial change conference to warn the Reagan admin- pointed to an unresolved power strug- in South Africa. Crocker was also ex- istration not to tilt U.S. policy towards gle within the Republican party. pected to meet with the leaders of the South Africa, nor lend support to Among other issues, the direction of Frontline states in southern Africa, to UNITA in Angola. However, President southern Africa policies appeared to stress a Reagan administration com- Shagari said he realized that Washing- hang in balance. mitment to an internationally accept- ton was "still studyng the African situ- State Department spokesmen regu- able formula for bringing independence ation and we can give them the benefit larly reassured the public: "As we carry to Namibia. He would also discuss the of the doubt until we see exactly what out the review, our emphasis in formu- thrust of Reagan administration think- they are going to do." lation of policy in southern Africa will ing on southern African issues. From Zimbabwe, Prime Minister be on finding diplomatic solutions to "That's going to take a great deal of Robert Mugabe wrote President Rea- the area's conflicts." explanation," commented one high- gan, asking him to pressure South Af- But events in Washington suggested ranking State Department official, rica to end apartheid and to implement otherwise, leaving the clear impression looking back on the events of the ad- the UN plan for Namibia. Much the that the administration intended a ministration s first months in Wash- same message came from Organization "pro-South African tilt," and the ington. •

26 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 cBFRICflM Monitoring economic and political developments around the Continent

CUPDflTE May-June 1981

Pretoria welcomes 'Zimbabwe formula'for Namibia settlement The South African government rican People's Organization, about a constitution that guarantees equal has indicated it will embrace the the possibility of drafting a con- rights to all people in the country— Reagan administration's proposal stitution before elections, and property rights, minority rights." to include constitutional guarantees SWAPO's president, Sam Nujoma, (London Guardian, March 30, for Namibia's white minority indicated he would be willing to ac- 1981; Washington Post, March 29, along the lines of the Zimbabwe cept some constitutional safeguards 1981.) settlement. for the minority. (London Guard- In South Africa, however. Dirk Pretoria has been advocating ian, Apri\ 2, 1981.) Mudge, the head of Namibia's constitutional safeguards for more The administration revealed in South African-installed authority than a year and reportedly held se- March that it intended to pursue the who lobbied in Washington in cret talks with the Angolan govern- Namibian settlement when Secre- March, said he believed the admin- ment last August in an effort to tary of State Alexander Haig met istration wants a solution that persuade the front-line African Nigerian Foreign Minister Ishaya would by-pass the UN resolution slates to accept constitutional guar- Audu in Washington. Haig report- and instead would have Western antees for the territory's 100.000 edly told Audu that the U.S. was powers supervise the independence whites. The drawn-out negotiations prepared to support the Namibian election. (London Sundav Times, for the UN plan collapsed at the Ge- initiative and that American foreign March29, 1981.) neva conference in January when policy toward southern Africa In April, Chester Crocker, the as- South Africa unilaterally rejected would not substantially change un- sistant secretary of state-designate the solution it had previously ac- der the new administration. Presi- for African affairs, embarked on a cepted. dent Reagan told the Washington nine-nation visit to explain the ad- At that conference, there were Post in an interview that the Nami- ministration's formula to the front- private discussions with the Nami- bian solution involves an election line African states. Nigeria and bian insurgents, the South-West Af- that "should follow the adoption of Continued on next page West promises $1.8 billion to reconstruct Zimbabwe economy The government of Zimbabwe Development. "The urban black investments. This point was made sought some $1.8 billion in interna- per capita income is only 10 percent by Edem Kodjo. OAU secretary- tional aid over the next three years that of the whites, while that of the general, who said at the conference mainly to improve the lot of five mil- rural black population is only 1 per- that Western investment in South lion people in the rural areas who cent." Africa is 30 times greater than the "eke out scarcely a bare subsis- The generosity of the donor na- $1.8 billion requested by Zim- tence," in the words of Prime Min- tions was considered partly eco- babwe. (London Times. February ister Robert Mugabe. The Western nomic. Zimbabwe has a well- 26 and March 28, 1981; Economist, nations at the aid donors conference developed infrastructure, prosper- March 28, 1981; Washington Post, in late March pledged what was ous farming, mining and manufac- March 28, 1981; Salisbury Radio, asked for, $1.8 billion, with the U.S. turing sectors and has a good March 23. 1981.) promising $210 million. chance of becoming self-support- In politics, the government post- The biggest donors were the ing. In February, the government poned indefinitely municipal elec- World Bank. $430 million. Britain, released an economic plan that em- tions scheduled for the end of $315 million, the U.S. and the Euro- phasized the need to establish "an March in Bulawayo, the stronghold pean Common Market, $180 mil- egalitarian society" through joint of Joshua Nkomo's Patriotic Front lion. ventures involving the government party. Dr. Eddison Zvobgo. the The goal of the massive injection and domestic and foreign busi- Minister of Local Government, said of aid is to correct the imbalance of nesses. that ex-guerrillas loyal to Nkomo the dual economy. "Average in- Another reason was political. A had weapons hidden around the come in the modern sector is more stable Zimbabwe, in this view, city, Zimbabwe's second largest, than 20 times that in the subsistence could help smooth the process of and there was "a grave risk" of an- sector," said Bernard Chidzero, change in neighboring South Africa, other outbreak of violence like the Minister of Economic Planning and where Western business has large Continued on next page

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 27 Tutu criticizes foreign investors; his passport is confiscated Prime Minister Pieter Botha said one of the most vicious systems As for Botha's threat to take in March his government had re- since Nazism." away his passport again. Tutu said it turned the passport of Bishop Des- Tutu also said—and it was widely was "strange that someone seeking mond Tutu as "a favor, not a right" reported in South Africa—that in change through nonviolent means and it was withdrawn when the out- ten years South Africa will have a should be penalized by the with- spoken black prelate returned from black Prime Minister who "may drawal of a passport. Perhaps this his trip to the U.S. and Britain. very well be Nelson Mandela," the will convince the world that there is Tutu, general secretary of the imprisoned leader of the banned Af- no really effective peaceful means South African Council of Churches, rican National Congress. left to blacks." (London Guardian, spent his first overseas trip since his Tutu's passport had been with- March 31 and April 2, 1981; Sowe- passport was confiscated in March drawn last year because he refused tan, March 25. 26 and 27, 1981; Jo- 1980 and returned last January pub- to retract a statement he made in hannesburg Star, March 28, 1981.) licly and privately urging political, Copenhagen in 1979 urging the Dan- economic and diplomatic pressure ish government to stop buying Pretoria continued against the South African govern- South African coal. South Africa. ment. While overseas. Tutu kept his l President Shehu Shagari of Nige- To the South Africans, probably promise to speak out 'everywhere I ria—one of Crocker's stops—made Tutu's most controversial state- get the chance." He told church a state visit to Britain in March in ments were his remarks to the Na- leaders and officials of the U.S. and which he urged the Thatcher gov- tional Council of Churches on the British governments: "For God's ernment not to veto UN oil sanc- subject of foreign investors who say sake, and the sake of world peace, tions against South Africa. they are helping black South Afri- take action and exert political, dip- South Africa's minority regime, cans. lomatic and economic pressure to he said, "survives with the collu- "I am telling them that they are make the South African authorities sion and encouragement of the lying," he said. "They must know come to the conference table before Western powers, who are supplying that they are investing to buttress it is too late." arms to the racists. Further, these Western powers are using their veto to block the oil embargo which is UN releases blacklist in sports campaign the only way—I say the only way— to end this repressive regime." The international campaign to be withdrawn from the list if they isolate South Africa in sports has in- haven't participated in sports with Shagari added that Nigeria will tensified with the UN's compilation South Africa for some years," said give "all aid to the freedom of a blacklist of some 185 athletes ACCESS director Richard Lap- fighters" of Namibia and South Af- who have competed in South Africa chick. rica. (London Guardian, March 21. or with South Africans. Countries Sanroc's chairman, Samba Ram- 1981.) • have been asked to boycott these samy, claims that not only Third athletes unless and until they mend World countries but also Western Zimbabwe continued their ways. nations will support the list. "There fighting in February. In March, British golfer Nick are sports organizations in the West A Patriotic Front spokesman said Faldo declared that he would never that won't touch a blacklisted per- however, that the delay was de- again play in South Africa in a bid to son," he said. There is only one Af- signed to allow the majority Zanu- have his name expunged from the rican on the list so far and all the rest PF party to become more organized blacklist. Nigeria banned a British are from the West, including 44 in Bulawayo. (London Times, tennis player on the list and Guyana Americans and 36 Britons. March 13, 1981.) expelled a British cricketer. In South Africa, the blacklist is A suggestion by Zvobgo that strongly backed by the Azanian eventually the Patriotic Front could Most of the list, which was to be People's Organization and by the merge with Zanu-PF, Prime Minis- published in May, has already been South African Council of Sport, ter Robert Mugabe's ruling party, made public. The list covers people which helped compile the blacklist. was apparently diplomatically side- who have had sports links with The government-run Johannesburg stepped by Nkomo in April. Noting South Africa since last September Radio commented: "Radical Third the "recent unfortunate incidents" and was compiled mainly by the World elements are indeed ill-ad- involving ex-guerrillas of both par- London-based South African Non- vised to broaden hostility towards ties, Nkomo said: "On the whole, Racial Olympic Committee (San- them, as by presuming to dictate to one hopes that one day we may be roc) and released by the UN special Western sportsmen where and with able to learn to live together." committee against apartheid. whom they should play." (London Later, though, Mugabe criticized Other organizations, including Guardian, March 28, 1981; Sowe- the concept of a multi-party parlia- ACCESS in the U.S., are drawing tan, March 18 and 23, 1981; Johan- mentary system, saying that "oppo- their own lists for inclusion by the nesburg Radio, March 16, 1981; sition for the sake of opposition is UN committee, which will review Johannesburg Star, March 14, negation ... of the positive." (Lon- all the names. Some names "could 1981.) D don Guardian, April 3 and 7,1981 .)D

28 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 Chad, but Acyl maintained that the been paid for almost two years. WESTERN AFRICA troops would only be withdrawn (Christian Science Monitor, March when the threat from the defeated 31, 1981; Washington Post, March Cape Verde rebel leader of the Armed Forces of 17, 1981; London Times, March 14. • President Aristides Pereira was the North (FAN), Hissene Habre. 1981; London Guardian, March 13, re-elected in late January by the na- has been eliminated. In reference to 1981; Kenya Weekly Review, tional assembly, and a new Cape the Libyan presence. Acyl said March 13, 1981; Financial Times, Verdean constitution was approved "There is nothing for the OAU to March2, 1981.) which formalizes the split between worry about. The Libyans are there the governing parties of Cape Verde because our borders are threatened The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. by non-African foreign powers," meaning the French, Chad's former • President Dawda Jawara reshuf- The African Party for the Inde- colonial power, who sent troops to fled his government earlier in the pendence of Cape Verde (PAICV) the Central African Republic and year, sacking Muhammadu Cadi was formed in mid-January as a strengthened its forces in Gabon and Cham, who was Finance and Trade result of the November coup in the Ivory Coast in recent months. Minister since 1977, and replacing Guinea-Bissau led by Maj. Joao him with Saiku Sabally, formerly Bernardo Vieira. The African Party Woddeye's government fears Economic Planning and Industrial for the Independence of Guinea- continued attacks from FAN. de- Development Minister. Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) spite the fact that Habre signed a Cham was a former member of had ruled both countries, toward ceasefire after his forces were de- the opposition United Party, first the aim of their eventual unifica- feated in Ndjamena in December. elected to the Gambian parliament tion. Reports from Agence France- in 1965. He was re-eiected in 1970, The assembly also approved the Presse in early March indicated that switched his allegiance to the ruling nomination of Pedro Pires as Prime FAN forces killed 16 foreign mili- Progressive People's Party, and Minister, and Pereira completed his tary officers including Libyans and was named Secretary of State for new government with a second cab- East Germans during skirmishes Information and Tourism. He also inet reshuffle in mid-February. Jose earlier in the year in eastern Chad, served as Education, Youth and Araujo, formerly secretary-general Habre's stronghold. Habre's rebels Sports Minister. of the executive committee of the reportedly appealed to the anti-Lib- Jerrah Daffeh, Agriculture and PAIGC in Bissau, was named Min- yan Vice President, Wadal Ka- Natural Resources Minister, was ister of Education and Culture, re- mougue, for "a common war of replaced by Seyni Singhateh, for- placing Maj. Carlos Reis. Tito de liberation against the Libyan con- merly parliamentary secretary at Oliveira Ramos, head of a national querors." Habre was also said to the Economic Planning and Indus- public works company, was ap- have asked the Reagan administra- trial Development Ministry. Omar pointed Minister of Environment tion for American arms to fight the Jallow was appointed head of the and Public Works. Libyan troops. newly created Ministry of Water The new Cape Verdean govern- Egypt acknowledged in March Resources and Environment. (New ment is composed often ministers that it is supplying arms to FAN, African, March 1981; Africa Re- and three secretaries of state, in ad- although Foreign Minister Kama! search Bulletin, February.15, 1981.) dition to the Prime Minister. Six of Hassan Ali declined to specify what the ministers and Pires are military type. Ali also said no Egyptian mili- Ghana men. (Africa Research Bulletin, tary advisers are aiding Habre's • In a February speech before the March 15. 1981; Praia Voz di Povo, forces. Meanwhile a State Depart- Council on Foreign Relations in February 23, 1981; West Africa, ment official said lhat less than 50 New York, Kofi Batsa, chairman of February 23, 1981.) Soviet military advisers and techni- the board of the Ghana Industrial cians have entered Chad to support Holding Corporation, outlined the Chad the Libyans. U.S. Secretary of Limann government's new liberal • The Chad Foreign Minister, State Alexander Haig said the U.S. foreign investment policy, which, he Ahmat Acyl, notified the OAU in was watching "with deep concern" said, '"upon close study is as attrac- March that Ndjamena is prepared to the events in Chad. tive as any on the continent of Af- hold OAU-supervised elections to Efforts by the Economy Minister rica." end disputes regarding the legiti- in the Chad government, Michel Batsa said, "It is our very firm macy of President Goukouni Wod- Koinaye, to obtain emergency eco- view that it is not attractive for deye's government. In March, Acyl nomic assistance from foreign gov- overseas investors to participate in said that Woddeye had invit- ernments and international insti- ventures in which they cannot con- ed OAU secretary-general Edem tutions such as the IMF appeared to trol the disposition of their capital. " Kodjo to send a commission to be fruitless. Chad is seeking $140 Therefore, according to reports, the Chad to determine whether it is a million from donors including West- government is prepared to take 30 proper time for elections. "If they ern countries such as France. Thus percent shares in mining investment say yes. then we are ready to hold far, only Libya has promised assist- and the majority shareholder would elections at present," said Acyl. ance in the form of paying six be entitled to management control. Many African countries have months' salary to all civil servants Batsa also emphasized the neces- condemned the Libyan presence in in April, many of whom have not sity of fostering a climate of credi-

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 29 bility in Ghana as the foundation for called together community leaders rural development. Five new minis- the growth of foreign investment to stress the need for calm. For- ters entered the government. there. Therefore, he said, the gov- eigners are often regarded as com- Brig. Paulo Correia, considered ernment will encourage foreign in- petitors in the Ivory Coast's re- the operational commander of the vestment in those enterprises which stricted labor market and according coup, was named Defense Minister. show a quick return. Tax conces- to observers, are often used as Cape Verdian Cruz Pinto was ap- sions will be included as another in- scapegoats for economic ills and so- pointed Minister of State without centive to investors, and the mining cial problems, such as crime. (Ac- portfolio, formerly state prosecu- sector is being pushed as a ripe area cra Radio, March 23, 1981; West tor. Carmen Pereira was named for overseas funds. Africa, March 16 and 23, 1981.) Minister of Health and Social Secu- The Ghanaian government re- rity, formerly speaker of the na- cently launched a major program to tional assembly. She is the only revive its flagging gold-mining in- Guinea woman cabinet minister. Vieira has dustry and held an international • President Sekou Toure instituted not named a prime minister. seminar on its gold endowment in a cabinet reshuffle in February, Vieira's government has report- January to attract foreign investors. shifting Information Minister Se- edly committed itself against taking The Minister of Lands and Natu- nainon Behanzin to the head of the any drastic action with regard to the ral Resources, S. Yeboah-Acheam- Farms and Agricultural Coopera- imprisoned former President Ca- pong, told the Ghana parliament in tives Ministry. Behanzin replaced bral, despite earlier pledges that he late February that a consortium of Alafe Kourouma, who was named would be put on trial for the alleged three foreign companies had ex- Minister of Posts and Telecommu- murders of more than 500 political pressed interest in development of nications. Siaka Toure, who held prisoners. Cabral1 s release, it is be- the Kibi bauxite deposits. The con- the latter post, was named Trans- lieved, would allow for an opportu- sortium, led by Houston-based port Minister. nity for reconciliation with Cape Brown and Root Inc.. includes A new Ministry for Middle Level Verde. Granges International Mining of Technical Education and Profes- The Bissau government is placing Sweden and Bankers Trust Interna- sional Training, and one for Small immediate priority on agriculture, tional of Britain. (West Africa, Feb- and Medium Scale Enterprises in order to halt serious food short- ruary 23 and March 9, 1981.) were formed in the reshuffle, to as- ages aggravated by drought. The sure "the maximum effectiveness search for oil by international com- in the realization of the objectives of panies is also continuing. The Inter- • Relations between Ghana and the the fourth economic and social de- national Development Association Ivory Coast soured in March as a velopment plan." The plan, cover- agreed earlier this year to go ahead result of an incident in the Ivorian ing 1981-85, was introduced last with a grant of a $6.8 million credit capital, Abidjan, in which 46 Gha- December, and puts emphasis on to finance oil exploration, to be car- nians died of asphyxiation in an the development of agriculture, ried out by the British firm Digicon. overcrowded police cell. fisheries, mines, industry and en- The prospecting is to be done on The Ghanaians were detained as ergy. Guinea-Bissau's continental shelf, part of a series of police raids to The Foreign Trade Minister Mo- outside the areas disputed by Gui- combat a "crime wave" in Abidjan. mory Camara was removed from nea and Senegal. (Africa Research The victims were allegedly packed his post in the shake-up and named Bulletin, February 28 and March 15, into a cell meant for between five to a local government post in Boke, 1981; West Africa, February 23, and seven people with very little Guinea's mining region. His re- 1981; Le Continent, February 9, ventilation. placement was not announced. (Af- 1981.) The Ghanaian government rica Research Bulletin, March 15, lodged an official protest to the 1981; Conakry Radio, February 6, Ivory Coast Ivory Coast government, whose 1981; Le Continent, February 5, President, Felix Houphouet-Boi- 1981.) • Earlier in the year, President Fe- gny, ordered an immediate inquiry lix Houphouet-Boigny formed a into the incident. Ghana also boy- new 36-mernber government, five cotted the late March meeting of the Guinea-Bissau ministers larger than the previous African Parliamentary Union in • Maj. Joao Bernardo Vieira, head one. Eleven new ministers were ap- Abidjan in protest over the deaths. of Guinea-Bissau's ruling Revolu- pointed and seven removed. Two Observers indicated that tensions tionary Council, set up a provisional new secretaries of state, August over such incidents are likely to run government composed of 16 minis- Denise and Mathieu Ekra, were high in the Ivory Coast, as for- ters and two secretaries of state in named. eigners account for over 25 percent February. Most of the team that The Economy, Finance and Plan- of the population. In 1980, Maurita- took over when President Luis de ning Ministry was split into two, as nian traders were attacked when Almeida Cabral was ousted in the was the Public Works, Transport bread prices went up in Abidjan. November coup remain in the new and Construction and Towns Minis- Following the recent incident, the government, with the exception of try. A new Ministry for the Envi- Upper Volta embassy, whose citi- Filinto Vaz Martins, who was re- ronment was created. The principal zens compose the largest propor- placed as Education Minister by cabinet posts remained in the same tion of aliens in the Ivory Coast, Mario Cabrai, formerly in charge of hands, with the exception of the

30 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 prices and thus clandestine exports ing control over its portion of the also removed. The cabinet was re- to neighboring countries. territory, which Morocco subse- duced in size from 20 to 19, and the Traders, as a result, will be al- quently annexed. number of military men from seven lowed to operate officially and will The leaders of the coup attempt to six, in line with Kountche's in- be taxed on their incomes. Also, the reportedly arrived in Nouakchott tent to "demilitarize" the govern- Malian Import and Export Society with soldiers and weaponry via ment. will hand over all internal trade to Paris and Dakar, Senegal. They had In another significant move, private interests and other com- planned to launch an attack on a Hamid Algabit was named Minister panies will have to demonstrate meeting of government leaders, but of Commerce and Abdou Mallam their profitability in order to con- the meeting was cancelled and they Moussa, Minister of Posts and tinue in existence. instead attacked the presidential Communications. Both men were President Moussa Traore also an- palace. After a battle with govern- previously secretaries of state and nounced that Mali would seek a full ment forces in which seven people are Tuareg, the first of that portion re-integration in to the West African were killed, the rebels were cap- of Niger's population to be cabinet Monetary Union (UMOA). It was tured. A curfew was imposed in ministers under the military govern- believed that many of the steps Nouakchott and the airport was ment. The nomadic Tuaregs inhabit taken to reorganize the economy closed. the north of Niger, said to be rich in are necessary before the integration The Moroccan government vehe- uranium, and Kountche reportedly can be achieved. Mali left the franc mently denied any involvement in fears Libyan destabilization in that zone in 1962, rejoined in 1968, but the affair, saying that "the Maurita- area. {Africa Research Bulletin, was not able to become a full mem- nians have internal problems and in March 15, 1981; Jeune Afrique, ber because of its severe economic choosing to hide them they have February 25. 1981: West Africa, problems. chosen Morocco as the scapegoat." February 16, 1981.) Some of the additional measures Heydalla subsequently alleged which will have to be implemented that the arms used by the plotters Nigeria toward that end are a 100 percent were flown in diplomatic bags by revaluation of the Malian franc and Royal Air Maroc and the rebels • President Shehu Shagari's state a reduction in balance of payments were trained at Ben Guerir, a mili- visit to Britain in late March, during and external reserves deficits. {Af- tary base near Marrakech, by the which he held wide-ranging discus- rica Research Bulletin, March 15, sixth Moroccan battalion. He also sions with high-level government 1981; West Africa, March 9, 1981.) said they were given false Moroc- and business representatives, re- can passports by the Rabat secret sulted in a clarification of outstand- ing political issues and the like- Mauritania service when they entered Senegal- ese territory, from where they lihood of expanded business ven- • Mauritania broke diplomatic rela- slipped into Mauritania. (London tures between the two nations. tions with Morocco in mid-March af- Times, March 19and 27, i9S\; West Shagari was unable to persuade ter a failed coup attempt against the Africa, March 23, 1981; London the British government to adopt government of Lieut. Col. Moha- Guardian, March 17 and 18, 1981.) stringent economic and sports sanc- med Khouna Ould Heydalla, which tions against South Africa, and was Nouakchott alleged, was under- told that Britain would not formu- taken with the complicity of Rabat. Niger late any new initiatives on Namibia The leaders of the coup attempt, • President SeyniKountche under- until the Reagan administration's both former members of the govern- took an important cabinet reshuffle policies toward southern Africa ing Mauritanian Military Commit- in February, dismissing four high- were more clearly defined. Shagari tee of National Salvation, were ranking ministers. One of those warned however that Nigeria "will Lieut. Col. Mohamed Ould Ba Ka- sacked, Lieut. Col. Sory Mamadou use every means at our disposal" to der and Lieut. Ahmed Salem Ould Diallo, was for a long time Minister fight "the evil system of apartheid" Sidi. They were among the founders of the Interior and one of the most and any "collusion and encourage- of the Alliance for a Democratic powerful members of the regime un- ment of Western powers." Mauritania, an opposition group in til last year when he was demoted to He also cautioned the Reagan ad- exile, alleged to have pro-Moroccan the Ministry of Posts and Telecom- ministration against adopting a pro- sympathies. They were executed by munications. South Africa policy or giving arms a Mauritanian firing squad in late Commander Moussa Sala was re- to Jonas Savimbi's Unita rebels in March, along with two other plot- moved from the head of the Educa- Angola, calling such a potential ters. tion Ministry, replaced by Capt. move "extremely serious." He said Beginning in 1975, Mauritania Youssoufa Maiga. Observers linked that "the U.S. administration is and Morocco were allies in the Sala's departure with student un- studying the African situation," Western Sahara war, after Spain rest that had been plaguing the and "I believe in giving them the withdrew from the colony and di- country for several months, and benefit of the doubt until policy is vided the territory between the two which the government alleged was announced." countries. Mauritania signed a "organized from abroad." A few days after the end of Sha- peace agreement with Polisario, the Mai Magana. Minister for Eco- gari's visit, Nigerian Foreign Minis- movement fighting for Saharan self- nomic Affairs, and Moukhaila ter Ishaya Audu, after a meeting determination, in 1979, relinquish- Arouna, Minister of Mines, were with U.S. Secretary of State Alex-

32 AFRICA REPOHT • May-June 1981 ander Haig in Washington, ex- the Nigerian border with Chad af- compromise agreement. According pressed the same caution with re- ter clashes between villagers and to the new arrangement, NPP mem- gard to U.S. policy, but said he was armed Chadians, according to Nige- bers of the national assembly will be optimistic that the U.S. will join ef- ria's number-two military chief, "free to vote as they wish," but the forts to promote change in southern Maj. Gen. Wushishi. Concern was coalition accord will remain in Africa. also believed to exist over the con- force. An increase in trade between tinued presence of Libyan troops in While NPP officials were divided Britain and Nigeria was one ex- Chad. Military observers indicated on whether to continue the coali- pected outcome of Shagari's visit, that one army division, T-55 and tion, reports indicated that Presi- as well as that of Britain's Foreign Scorpion tanks, and nearly a squad- dent Shehu Shagari's NPN seemed Secretary Lord Carrington to Lagos ron of MiG 21 fighters were moved more intent on ending it, witnessed in February. One outstanding issue to Borno state. by NPN senators' rejections of between the two nations appeared The Nigerian government was nominations of all four NPP ambas- to have been resolved in late Febru- also concerned about the stability of sadorial nominees. The NPN is the ary when it was agreed that Nigeria another northern state, Kano, after largest party in both houses of the would provide British Petroleum religious riots led by a fanatical assembly, but does not possess an with crude oil worth over $110 mil- Moslem sect left up to 2,000 dead in over-all majority. lion in compensation for the nation- December. The governor of Kano, Twelve of the 19 state governors alization of its assets in 1979. The Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, said in Feb- signed ajoint statement questioning nationalization was the result of al- ruary that he believed a coup could the validity of the process by which legations that BP was supplying oil occur at any time. the revenue bill was passed—ajoint to South Africa. Some Nigerian officials alleged committee from both assembly In addition, discussions were be- that the Kano riots were part of a houses approved the bill, but it was ing held on the possibility of a sub- plan to destabilize the country. The never ratified by the two chambers. stantial arms deal, believed to be leader of the opposition People's Those who did not sign the state- worth $1.3 billion between Britain Redemption Party, Malam Aminu ment were members of the ruling and Nigeria, which would involve Kano, alleged that certain state gov- NPN. (Africa Research Bulletin, the re-equipment of the Nigerian ernors are training guerrillas to sub- February 28, 1981; West Africa, armed forces. vert the government and they are February 16 and 23, 1981; Econo- Britain is currently Nigeria's larg- being trained on the federal govern- mist, February 14, 1981; London est foreign investor with assets esti- ment's experimental farms, dis- Times, February 14, 1981.) mated at $4 billion. According to guised as farmers and laborers. No Nigeria's fourth national develop- evidence was brought forth to sub- Senegal ment plan, the sectors likely to be stantiate these claims. (Economist, the most promising for new invest- February 21, 1981; Kenya Weekly • Earlier this year, Senegal's new ment are: agriculture, food process- Review, February 20,1981; London government, led by President Ab- ing, engineering, transport, chem- Times, February 16, 1981.) dou Diouf, announced its willing- icals, telecommunications, house- ness to amend a constitutional hold equipment and furnishing. provision allowing only four politi- The British bank Morgan Gren- • The Revenue Allocation Bill, di- cal parties, each with an ideological fell signed a loan agreement worth viding Nigeria's revenues, most of ticket, "to permit and guarantee the $200 million with the Lagos govern- which come from oil, among the democratic expression of all the ment to fund the completion of the federal, state and local govern- representative political currents." Iwopin pulp and paper complex in ments, was finally signed into law in This measure was made public by early March. And representatives early February, but not before caus- Prime Minister Habib Thiam in a from 30 British companies attended ing considerable controversy message to the national assembly. an exhibition of electro-technical among state governors and threat- The four official parties are: the goods in Lagos in March in hopes of ening a split in the ruling party coali- ruling Socialist Party, the Demo- boosting trade. (Washington Star, tion. cratic Party of Senegal, the African March 28, 1981; West Africa, All state governors had asked Party for Independence, and the March 23, 1981; London Times, that more funds be allocated to Republican Party of Senegal. The March 16 and 21. 1981; Washington them, objecting that the largest National Democratic Assembly, led Post, March 21, 1981; Financial share of revenues will go to the fed- by Cheikh Anta Diop, is the most Times, February 26, March 5, 11, eral government. The Nigerian Peo- likely political organization to bene- and 18, 1981.) ple's Party (NPP). led by Nnamdi fit from the measure, as it claims to Azikiwe and the ruling National have wide popular support. It lost a • According to a mid-February re- Party of Nigeria's (NPN) coalition bid in 1978 to win recognition as a port in the London Times, the Nige- partner, along with other opposition party. rian armed forces and security parties had tried to amend the bill Thiam warned, however, that agencies were put on a nationwide during national assembly debates, this liberalization "would be harm- alert because of growing tension on threatening the collapse of the alli- ful for the country if it were to pro- the border with Chad and internal ance. The bill went through never- voke an outbreak of sterile quarrels, unrest in the north of the country. theless, and the split in the alliance accentuate the divisions in parlia- Troops were moved to reinforce was said to have been averted by a ment, and definitively paralyze the

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 33 government's activity." He also an- seized. (New African. April 1981; tional and Home Affairs, was in- nounced that a reform in the elec- Johannesburg Radio, March 7, volved in the plot. Njonjo. who was toral laws was being prepared "to 1981.) then the Attorney General, testified allow the formation of stable parlia- in court that this was "absolute mentary majorities." {West Africa, Djibouti | nonsense," but that Muthemba had February 23, 1981; Jeune Afrique, • Djibouti's President, Hassan Gou- gone to see him in March 1980 February II. 1981.) led, made official visits to neighbor- claiming he had information about ing Ethiopia and Kenya in March currency smuggling. Njonjo said he Sierra Leone and was scheduled to visit Somalia advised Muthemba to get in touch • In February, a scandal dubbed in April. with the police. "Vouchergate," involving officials Ethiopia, which uses Djibouti Muthemba claimed toan airforce of the Treasury and Ministry of Fi- port for its trade, signed a ten-year captain whose help he allegedly nance was unearthed by the Minis- friendship and cooperation agree- sought in obtaining arms that he ter of State for Finance, Alfred ment with Djibouti. Kenya and Dji- represented a group of "big men" Akibo-Betts. when he was monitor- bouti "reiterated their commitment who wanted to change the leader- ing returns from the Bank of Sierra to the search for peace and stability ship. Njonjo has been credited with Leone. which will enhance the social and masterminding the smooth transi- Hundreds of thousands of dollars economic well being of the people tion of Daniel arap Moi to the presi- were reportedly being paid out on living in the Horn of Africa." (Nai- dency after the death of Jomo false vouchers to fictitious com- robi Radio, March 25, 1981; Addis Kenyatta in 1978. At that time he panies, issued by officers in the Ac- Ababa Radio, March 21, 1981.) appeared to be Moi's closest and countant General's Office and paid most powerful adviser. (London by the Bank of Sierra Leone with- Ethiopia Times, March 24. 25 and 28. 1981; out clearance from the Minister of Kenya Weekly Review. March 20, • Ethiopia has appealed for $330 1981.) Finance. The payments were never million in international aid, saying recorded. Akibo-Betts said the total that 3.9 million people have been af- • Oginga Odinga, the onetime op- amount of funds paid out may be in fected by drought or famine or dis- position politician popular among the millions. placed from their homes by war. the Luos of western Kenya, is mak- Three cabinet ministers were ar- The UN has asked for $215 mil- ing a political comeback in a big rested and charged in March as the lion to aid the Ethiopians, saying way. government continued its investiga- that 1.5 million people are on the An Odinga protege has resigned tion. S.H.O. Gborie, Minister of the margin of life and need immediately his seat in parliament because, he Interior, Harry Williams, Minister 224,000 tons of food. UN officials said, "the time has come" for of Development and Economic claim the superpower shifts in the Odinga to return to parliament. Planning, and S.B. Marah, Minister Horn of Africa have produced a Odinga was in parliament in 1969 of Energy and Power, along with scandalous imbalance for Ethiopia when he was detained for nearly their permanent secretaries, were and Somalia after both suffered two years under the Kenyatta re- released on bail after charges were three years of drought. Somalia, the gime. His subsequent attempts to brought against them. Western ally, has received an esti- run for parliament were barred. Several prominent businessmen mated ten times as much assistance. Then in 1980, President Daniel arap and other government functionaries The wars that produced much of Moi appointed Odinga chairman of have been arrested and 15 of the the suffering are not yet over, but the cotton board and he is now more than 50 detained suspects reportedly are containable. Diplo- one of Moi's staunchest supporters. were released. (Africa Research mats said the Ethiopians have the Political analysts say it was al- Bulletin, March 15, 1981; West Af- upper hand in the Ogaden, border- ways Moi's intention to maneuver rica, February 23 and March 9, ing Somalia, while the guerrilla Odinga back into national politics. 1981.) wars in Tigre and Eritrea have (Kenya Weekly Review, March 27, reached stalemate. (London Times, EASTERN AFRICA April 6, 1981; London Guardian, A March 14 and 31, 1981.) • The University of Nairobi's 7,000 students got an early Easter vaca- Comoros Kenya j tion, sent home by the government, • The Comoran government, in- • Two Kenyans who were origi- which feared a confrontation at a stalled by mercenaries in May 1978, nally charged with trying to steal planned demonstration on March was the target of an abortive coup in weapons from the armed forces 2—the sixth anniversary of the as- February. were committed for trial in March sassination of J.M. Kariuki. Some 50 people, including army on charges of treason and con- Kariuki, a populist MP, has be- personnel and members of the civ- cealment of treason in an alleged come a folk hero to the students and il service, were detained after the coup plot. previous demonstrations have been attempt, which reportedly was Nairobi businessman Andrew broken up by riot police. to have been carried out by the Muthemba, charged with treason, The government apparently presidential guards. A quantity of claimed in court that Charles wanted to avoid an embarrassing weapons was said to have been Njonjo, the Minister for Constitu- confrontation at the same time as

34 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 11 450 editors and publishers were at- reconstruction of housing and roads Nyerere told his people in March tending the International Press In- and rebuilding the fishing industry. they face the possibility of food stitute conference in Nairobi. Mauritius also received a further $2 shortages. However, a week before the confer- million in South African money for "We have enormous food prob- ence opened, the government improvement of the lea industry. lems," Nyerere said. "I can tell you banned the Voice of Africa, a nine- (Johannesburg Star. March 7. 1981; if the situation continues like this, month-old weekly edited by a Lib- Johannesburg Radio, March 6, many Tanzanians will die of hunger yan national and allegedly financed 1981.) next year." by the Libyan government. Tanzania has weathered previous The ostensible reason for the ban- Seychelles bad harvests, in 1973 and 1974. but ning was that the paper claimed that • The Seychelles government is this time the country has foreign ex- the New Year's Eve bombing of the trying to diversify the economy, be- change shortages. In a nationwide Norfolk Hotel was carried out by cause its mainstay, tourism, has broadcast, Nyerere explained the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence slumped after years of expansion. situation: agency. The Kenyan authorities, In the first half of 1980, the num- "In 1972, we used only 10 percent though, had said the bomb was ber of tourists was down 7 percent of our foreign exchange from pro- planted by a member of the Popular over the 1979 period, mainly due to duce to buy oil. With the remaining Front for the Liberation of Pales- higher air fares caused by rising fuel 90 percent we bought other essen- tine. (Kenya Weekly Review, Feb- costs. tials . . . This year we shall spend ruary 27 and March 6, 1981; London The government wants to expand between 45 and 50 percent to buy Observer, March 8, 1981.) farming in an effort to reduce the oil. With the remaining 50 or 55 per- huge food import bill. One plan is to cent we shall buy other essential Madagascar develop the small outer islands, commodities . . . but the prices of • More unrest struck Madagascar which are largely unexploited and these commodities have also in February, when a march by 4,000 uninhabited. In a pilot project, the risen." students through the capital erupted government intends to build basic Late in March, the government in violence. In clashes between the infrastructure—air strips, housing took further measures to conserve demonstrators and the army, six and social facilities—on five of oil. Gasoline sales were restricted people were killed and 60 wounded. these islands. {African Business, to three days a week. (Dar es Sa- The demonstrations were linked February 1981.) laam Radio, February 5 and March to Madagascar's economic prob- 19, 1981; Kenya Weekly Review, lems. The students carried placards Somalia March 13. 1981.) urging the government to stamp out • Somalia's economic problems corruption and get rid of bureau- have been aggravated by the contin- Uganda n cratic "drones." ued pouring in of refugees from the • Armed opposition to the govern- Unemployment has risen and job Ogaden and food and fuel short- ment of President Milton Obote be- prospects for many Malagasy stu- ages. gan in February and by April dents are dim. "There is disillusion- The deputy minister of economic amounted to what observers called ment because of the inefficiency, planning. Mohamed Umar Jama, insurrection. the lack of goods and the corrup- pleaded for more international aid The government has responded tion," a Malagasy professional told in March, claiming there were 1.3 harshly, detaining at least 100 peo- the Washington Post. (Africa Re- million refugees in the country and ple, many of them opposition politi- search Bulletin, March 15, 1981; 1.1 million tons of food was urgently cians, and reviving the notorious Washington Post. March 8. 1981.) needed. State Research Bureau, the secret Officials of the UN High Com- police organization under Idi Amin Mauritius mission for Refugees said that the that was responsible for killing • The extensive trade links of Mau- coordination of food distribution thousands of people. In March, at ritius with South Africa—an issue in was coming under control in mid- least 50 bodies were found dumped the general election scheduled March. The Somali government had in and around Kampala, the capital. within the next year—was under- begun taking measures against food There have been numerous at- lined in March when the Mauritian theft from some camps and the UN tacks by several underground government accepted a $ 187 million commission and other agencies groups that are waging a guerrilla loan from Pretoria. were strengthening their monitoring war against Obote. After attacks in The loan will be used to repair systems. Altogether, the relief bill Kampala, the U.S. embassy evacu- damage caused by a cyclone in for 1981 will amount to $200 million. ated all dependents of American March 1980. Originally. South Af- (London Times. March 27 and 28. personnel in April, citing the secu- rica had offered a line of credit but 1981; Mogadishu Radio. March 8. rity situation, but also privately ac- criticism from Mauritius' opposi- 1981.) , knowledging the government's tion political parties forced the gov- repressive response. ernment to renegotiate the deal. Tanzania Among the guerrilla groups are Mauritian government officials • The widespread drought affect- the Uganda Freedom Movement, flew to South Africa in March, and ing eastern Africa is also troubling thought to be led by supporters of said the money would be used for Tanzania, where President Julius Dr. Yusufu Lule, a post-Amin Pres-

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 35 ident ousted after 68 days, and the when Dacko was declared the vic- Equatorial Guinea People's Revolutionary Army led tor, some 2,000 youths began pro- by Yoweri Museveni, an ex-De- tests against him in the capital. • Col. Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo, fense Minister in the pre-Obote Dacko declared a state of siege, au- president of Equatorial Guinea caretaker government. These thorizing the army to fire on the since he launched the coup against groups claim that Obote's party demonstrators. Over 60 people Macias Nguema in August 1979, stole the December election and were believed to have been injured. took several steps in recent months that the government has used the France reacted to the unrest by bol- towards a demilitarization of the army and the rest of the security ap- stering its 500-man garrison in Ban- government and the establishment paratus to carry out savage re- gui, bringing in 1,000 troops pre- of the rule of law. prisals, among them the alleged viously stationed in the northwest In February, Mbasogo an- massacre of 2,000 people in West of the country. French paratroopers nounced that the government was Nile province, which was Amin's guarded the French embassy. drafting a constitution and that he former base. Many of the protesters said they planned to gradually diminish the Besides the detentions, the gov- were supporters of Ange Patasse, political roles of the armed forces. ernment has banned four opposition former Prime Minister who came in A decree was published in March newspapers which were critical of second in the elections with 38 per- making it mandatory for the military the army. Student leaders and cent of the vote. Patasse is a strong within the government to decide dozens of others at Makerere Uni- critic of the French presence in the whether they want to return to mili- versity have fled the country fol- country. The four losing candidates tary duties only or keep their jobs in lowing several arrests there. (Lon- denounced the violence, appealing the administration. If they opt for don Times, February 24, March 17, to the people to accept the election the government jobs, they must ac- 26, April 3 and 6, 1981; Kenya results. Calm appeared to have cept a leave of absence from the Weekly Review, March 20, 1981; been restored by the end of March, armed forces. London Guardian, March 14, but Dacko was not prepared to lift In late March, Mbasogo ap- 1981.) the state of siege at that time. pointed the first civilian to his cab- The leaders of the opposition par- inet—Emiliano Buale as Minister ties met in March to discuss the pos- of Agriculture. Buale is an agricul- CENTRAL AFRICA sibility of forming a coalition to tural engineer and one of the few contest the legislative elections, people with a higher education who Cameroon slated for June; (Le Monde, March remained in the country during 23,24 and 30, 1981; London Guard- Nguema's despotic rule. • Oil was recently discovered for ian, March 20 and 23,1981; London According to observers, the ad- the first time in the Kribi region, 125 Times, March 21,1981.) ministration of the government is miles south of Douala, by the Mo- becoming more organized with the bil-Total Oil Company. • In mid-March, French President assistance of 120 Spanish advisers. Kribi has already been found to Valery Giscard d'Estaing finally Many students have gone to Spain possess major natural gas reserves, openly admitted haying received since the coup, under scholarship and production will begin in 1987. large gifts of diamonds from de- grants, to fill Equatorial Guinea's Prior to the oil discovery at Kribi, posed Emperor Jean-Bedel Bo- desperate needs for skills. (London offshore deposits had only been kassa, but claimed that the goods' Times, April 1,1981.) found in a zone near the border with value did not exceed the average of Nigeria. {West Africa, March 23, that of presents that the former 1981.) monarch gave to any visiting head Gabon of state. I • "Africa Number One," the most Central African Republic Since the fall of 1979, when the powerful radio station in the conti- • President David Dacko was re- French satirical weekly, Le Canard nent, was inaugurated by Gabon's elected to a six-year term of office in Enchaine, published documents al- Prime Minister, Leon Mebiame, in mid-March, in an election which leging that the French president had February during a visit by the caused much controversy and se- received valuables from the de- French Defense and Cooperation rious unrest in the Central African posed emperor, Giscard had main- Minister, Robert Galley. capital, Bangui. Running against tained silence on the claims. But in The station is located at Moyabi, four other candidates—Ange Pa- March, with the French elections on a plateau about 2,300 feet above tasse, head of the Movement for the only weeks away, Giscard said that sea level and 300 miles south of Ga- Liberation of the Central African the diamonds Were sold at a price of bon's capital, Libreville. The cost People; Dr. Abel Goumba, leading $23,373 last December after an offi- of the project was $64 million, and the Oubangui Patriotic Front Labor cial appraisal, With the entire pro- the Gabon government has a 60 per- Party; Henri Maidou, leader of the ceeds except sales taxes donated to cent share in it. The French com- Republican Party for Progress; and charities in the Central African Re- pany Sofirad, which loaned Gabon Franco Pehoua, an independent— public, including the Red Cross. 12 engineers for the station, has the Dacko won a narrow victory with (Wall Street Journal, March 24, remaining 40 percent share. 50.23 percent of the votes cast. 1981; London Guardian, March 19 The station will broadcast in ! A curfew was imposed in Bangui and 23, 1981; Washington Post, French 18 hours a day, six of which while the votes were counted and March 11,1981.) will be relays from Radio France In-

36 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 ternational. (West Africa, February whose foreign debt is $4 billion been calling for a party reorganiza- 23, 1981.) against foreign currency reserves of tion to save it from collapse, and it $320 million. was alleged that Kaunda was re- Zaire In a related event, a senior official ceiving bad advice on methods of • President Mobuto Sese Seko re- of the Zaire government said in Feb- dealing with popular unrest over the shuffled his cabinet in February, ruary that more understanding and state of the economy. (Economist, naming Bomboko Lokumba as Min- support is expected to come from February 28, 1981; Kenya Weekly ister of Foreign Affairs and Interna- the Reagan administration than was Review, February 20,1981; London tional Cooperation, and Deputy the case under former President Guardian, February 19, 1981.) Carter. The official said that letters Prime Minister, a newly created • In March, forced to follow on post. from President Reagan and Secre- tary of State Alexander Haig said Zaire's lead, Zambia cut its pro- Lokumba was Zaire's Foreign ducer price of cobalt by 20 percent Minister in the 1960s, first under Pa- that the U.S. would not forget its allies even if the total U.S. aid pack- from $25 to $20 a pound, in an al- trice Lumumba and then under Mo- ready flagging international market butu, but was removed from the age were smaller than before. (West Africa, March 9, 1981; Financial for the commodity. position in 1969 after negotiating the Zaire, the largest cobalt pro- return to Zaire of the exiled opposi- Times, February 26 and March 7, 1981.) ducer, reduced its price in Febru- tion leader, Pierre Mulele, while ary, despite the fact that major Mobutu was out of the country. producers had pledged in December Lokumba was named ambassa- Zambia to maintain the $25 price through dor to Washington for one year in • President Kenneth Kaunda re- 1981. As Zambia produces less than 1969, but was removed from the placed the number-two and -three 25 percent as much cobalt as Zaire, government in 1970. He was elected men in the state hierarchy in Febru- officials faced little choice but to re- a member of the politburo of the rul- ary in a sweeping reorganization of duce their price as well. ing Popular Movement of the Revo- the ruling United National Indepen- Zambian producers, however, do lution and then to the party's central dence Party (UNIP) and the govern- not believe that the price cut will committee in 1980. ment. result in a dramatically expanded Observers indicated that his re- Mainza Chona, UNIP secretary- demand for cobalt, as it is available turn to the Foreign Affairs Ministry general, was replaced by Hum- on dealer markets for $18.50 a is designed to create a new interna- phrey Mulemba, chairman of the pound. (Economist, March 21, tional image for Zaire, especially at party central committee's appoint- 1981; Wall Street Journal, March 9, a time when oil deposits have been ments and disciplinary committee. 1981.) discovered in central Zaire, which Chona, a close political ally of In a related event, Zambia se- Exxon Corp. characterized as sig- Kaunda, was Vice President before cured its largest Euromarket loan in nificant. the title was abolished and also an March, $150 million, in a deal Lokumba replaced Inonga Lo- ex-Prime Minister. He will become signed with six international banks, konga L'Ome, who was named Jus- ambassador! to what Kaunda de- to provide Lusaka with foreign ex- tice Minister in the shake-up. scribed as a friendly socialist coun- change needed to buy oil. The (JeuneAfrique, March4,1981; Kin- try. credit, available immediately for a shasa Radio, February 18, 1981.) Nalumino Mundia was named as 12-month period, was raised by the • In late February, the Belgian Prime Minister, replacing Lusaka Bank of America, along with the Prime Minister Wilfred Martens lawyer Daniel Lisulo. Mundia was Bank of Credit and Commerce In- paid an official visit to Zaire, its previously chairman of the UNIP ternational, Chase Manhattan, Citi- former colony, for talks with Presi- central committee's youth and bank, Grindlays Bank and Standard dent Mobutu Sese Seko aimed at sports sub-committee, and is a Chartered. improving relations between the former minister with experience in Since earnings on Zambia's two two countries. labor relations, commerce, industry main export commodities—copper Agreements were signed to pro- and local government. Lisulo will and cobalt—remain low, a foreign vide Zaire with a $27 million line of head the social and cultural sub- exchange crisis could be in the off- credit and a Belgian state loan val- committee of the central commit- ing. (Financial Times, March 13, ued at $12 million, along with a pref- tee. | 1981.) erential maritime arrangement. Elijah Mudenda, who held the lat- Political differences between the ter post, has been named to head the two countries arose over Zairian re- finance subcommittee, in which ca- NORTHERN AFRICA quests for increased military aid and pacity he will supervise all cabinet for pressure to crack down on the ministries related to the economy. activities of Zairian exiles living in The reshuffle was apparently un- Algeria Belgium. Martens refused to com- dertaken partly as a result of the • Contrary to expectations raised ply with those requests. Copperbelt miners' strike in Janu- earlier this year after Algeria's suc- The Belgian Prime Minister did ary, and also a further step in a se- cessful mediation role in the Iranian confirm that his country would ries of political changes begun with hostage crisis, the negotiations be- press for increased international a December 1980 cabinet reshuffle. tween Algerian and U.S. Energy monetary assistance for Zaire, UNIP backbenchers had recently Department officials aimed at set-

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 37 Ministries of Defense and Interior. Green Berets and the destroyer bonds. The measure was designed Konan Jean Banny took over De- Thorn to the country in mid-April, to provide the government with fense for a second time, having oc- to demonstrate U.S. support for the needed ready funds. Doe also froze cupied the post previously until his military government. recruitment to the civil service, and arrest in 1963. He was subsequently The timing of the visit was said to unemployment in Monrovia is esti- freed and given amnesty, and was a be symbolic, coming exactly one mated at 50 percent. deputy prior to the appointment. year after the coup d'etat in which Meanwhile in February, it was Konan Koffi Leon was named Min- President William Tolbert was announced that the European Eco- ister of Interior. killed. The State Department called nomic Community is to provide the Contrary to what had been ex- the decision "an expression of Liberian government with develop- pected, the 75-year-old Houphouet- strengthening ties" between the ment assistance worth $45 million, Boigny has not yet appointed a vice two countries, and said the U.S. most of which wilt be in the form of president, who under the recently Army Special Forces would remain grants. The aid, made available un- amended Ivorian constitution, in Liberia for 30 days to participate der the Lome Two Convention gov- would be his designated successor. in training exercises. erning economic relations between Houphouet-Boigny was re-elected A March visit to Monrovia by act- the European and African, Carib- to another five-year term of office in ing assistant secretary of state for bean and Pacific countries, will be October 1980, before the constitu- African affairs. Lannon Walker, used primarily for rural develop- tion was changed to provide for the laid the groundwork for the April ment, health, education and infra- post of vice president. (Africa Re- activities. Observers indicated that structure. (Africa Research Bulle- search Bulletin, March 15. 1981; the U .S. government feared that the tin, February 28, 1981; West Africa, Jeune Afrique, February II, 1981; current Liberian regime would seek February 9 and 23, 1981.) Le Continent, February 4, 1981.) to strengthen relations with Ethio- pia and Libya, two of its most per- Mali • The Ivory Coast won approval of sistent suitors, whereas previous a$59l million loan from the Interna- governments were closely allied to • In February, President Moussa tional Monetary Fund in March, to the U.S. Traore confirmed that a New alleviate its "severe financial cri- Year's Eve plot to assassinate him Washington has pledged to sup- and the country's military leaders sis," resulting from a steep drop in ply Liberia with $1.7 million in for- world prices since 1977 of its major had been discovered only hours be- eign military sales credits and fore it was to have been launched. export commodities—cocoa and $449,000 in military training assist- coffee. ance for the fiscal year 1981. Five The coup attempt was allegedly The $591 million can be drawn additional teams of U.S. military planned by a group of about 15 jun- over the next three years to support training personnel are scheduled to ior officers in the police force, most the Ivory Coast's economic stabili- visit Liberia this year. (Washington of whom were arrested. zation efforts. A $35 million credit Post, April 2, 1981.) Meanwhile, the French section of was also immediately made availa- Amnesty International issued a ble. communique in February condemn- In addition, as a result of a March • The government of Master Sgt. ing Mali's human rights record with visit to the Ivory Coast by a group of Samuel Doe experienced its first regard to the government's impris- British industrialists led by Lord major confrontation with organized onment and torture of students and Trefgarne, the parliamentary un- labor in February, when 450 dock teachers. The organization ap- dersecretary of state for trade, sev- workers at the National Ports Au- pealed to participants at a special eral British companies are to re- thority in Monrovia went on strike. congress of Mali's sole political ceive more than $442 million in pub- The workers were demanding to be party, the Democratic Union of Ma- lic contracts from the Abidjan gov- paid at the government-imposed lian People, to release 39 "prisoners ernment. $200 per month minimum wage for of conscience." The contracts are expected to civil servants. They receive hourly Most of those jailed were be- result in an increase in trade be- wages averaging $115 per month. lieved to have been involved in the tween Britain and the Ivory Coast, The government's reaction to the teachers' union unrest last fall. long regarded as a preserve for strikers was to order their immedi- (West Africa, February 16, 1981.) French business. The largest pro- ate dismissal, having instituted a de- ject is the $300 million Abidjan air- cree last July making strikes illegal. • The Mali government decided at port, for which Plessey will be the Hundreds of unemployed Liberians a February special congress of the main contractor. {Financial Times. reportedly stormed the ports au- Democratic Union of Malian People March 17, 1981; Wall Street Jour- thority seeking jobs after learning of to dismantle the parastatal sector of nal, March 4, 1981.) the sackings. the economy, in order to implement Observers noted, however, that its "liberalization." the Liberian government may face The first step of the process will Liberia increased labor unrest in the coming be the abolition of the Office of • In response to a request from the months when workers begin to feel Agricultural Products of Mali Liberian head of state. Master Sgt. the pinch from Doe's decree making (OPAM), which dominated the mar- Samuel Doe, the Reagan adminis- it mandatory for all employees keting of domestic agricultural pro- tration announced plans to send 100 to purchase government savings duction resulting in low producer

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 31 ting a new export price for Algerian frained from official public condem- with West Germany and Canada liquefied natural gas (LNG) ended nation of the Reagan administra- about acquiring plants from them. It in a stalemate in February. tion, but an influential Algerian edi- is believed that the first plants will As a result, El Paso Natural Gas tor was quoted as saying, "We have be in operation in about 1990. {Fi- Co., the largest U.S. importerof Al- sufficient reasons to be furious" at nancial Times, February 18 and gerian LNG, wrote off $365.4 mil- the U.S. actions, which are re- March 23, 1981; Walt Street Jour- lion against its 1980 profits "in view garded as "slaps in the face." (Wall nal, March 23, 1981; London Ob- of the remote prospects" of a re- Street Journal, February 23 and server, March 15, 1981.) sumption of the gas deliveries that April 9, 1981; Washington Post, were halted in April 1980. The com- March 25. 1981; Fortune, March 23, Libya pany's after-tax losses were esti- 1981; Financial Times, February 20, 1981.) • The Libyan leader. Col. Muam- mated to have been $7 million a mar Qaddafy, is to visit the Soviet month since the dispute began. Union in the coming months for The Algerian government had Egypt talks aimed at "strengthening and sought to achieve a parity price • Both the French and American developing friendly relations," ac- level for exports of both oil and governments agreed in March to cording to a March announcement LNG of about $6 per 1,000 cubic each supply Egypt with two nuclear from Moscow. Qaddafy's last visit feet. The U.S. government and power plants after Cairo ratified the was in 1976, and according to some company officials resisted the in- nuclear non-proliferation treaty reports, he is making the upcoming crease, arguing instead for a ceiling earlier in the year. trip to sign a friendship treaty with of about $4.50 per 1,000 cubic feet, Dr. Abdel-Razzaq Abdel-Me- the Soviets, which will alter Libya's in line with the current LNG price guid, the Egyptian deputy prime previous policy of non-alignment. charged by Canada and Mexico. minister in charge of the economy, According to Western analysts, Other U.S. LNG importing com- also held discussions in February there are more than 5.000 Eastern panies, including Consolidated Nat- with the British government for the bloc military and civilian personnel ural Gas, Southern Natural Re- purchase of two nuclear power sta- and a $12 billion arsenal of Soviet sources Inc. and Columbia Gas tions. He outlined Egypt's plans to weaponry now present in Libya. A System Inc., however, remained construct eight of the plants—four U.S. State Department official also optimistic that the dispute would on the Mediterranean and four on reported recently that fewer than 50 eventually be settled and that U.S. the Red Sea coast, which, when Soviet military advisers and techni- imports from other sources would completed, would provide 35 to to cians were stationed in Chad to as- grow. However, a 20-year contract 40 percent of the country's energy sist the Libyans there. was signed by Algerian officials needs. Libya made some conciliatory with Distrigaz of Belgium in early Abdel-Meguid said that the gov- gestures, however, in February and April, under which LNG is to be ernment was setting aside $500 mil- March after many African and provided at a cost of $5 per 1,000 lion annually from oil revenues for Western countries expressed con- cubic feet, the highest price ob- the next 20 years to fund the nuclear cern and disapproval over the role tained by Algeria from any cus- program. of Libyan assistance in bringing tomer. It was believed that this The French are to build the first about the victory of Chad President agreement would set a precedent two stations, one million kilowatts Goukouni Woddeye over rebel His- for future Algerian talks with other each, at Al Daaba, 65 miles west of sene Habre and his Armed Forces countries. Alexandria, at a cost of about $ 1 bil- of the North (FAN). Libyan Prime According to a report in the lion each. France will also train the Minister Maj. Abdelsallam Jalloud Washington Post in late March, in- Egyptian personnel required for the met with Nigerian President Shehu fluential Algerians were said to be two plants. Shagari in February and was said to disappointed that the Reagan ad- The Egyptian government had be considering a plan whereby ministration muffed the best chance been negotiating with the U.S. for Libya would withdraw its troops for improving relations between the over five years prior to the March from Chad in return for a French two countries since Algeria's inde- agreement reached with the Reagan withdrawal from the Central Afri- pendence in 1962. In addition to the administration. The major snag had can Republic. collapse of the LNG negotiations, always been the U.S. requirement A first contingent of 200 Libyan Algeria has been angered by the that Egypt sign the non-prolifera- soldiers was withdrawn from Chad U.S. government approval of tank tion treaty. Under the accord, the in March. And in late March, Qad- sales to Morocco, concomitant with U.S. will provide two pressurized dafy proclaimed the end of "the its dropping of language justifying water reactors, each with a capacity state of confrontation with the the sales as a means of facilitating of one million kilowatts, costing $1 Egyptian army" and said there the peace process over the Western billion apiece, along with enriched were no longer any Libyan troops Sahara. Another contentious issue uranium fuel. The agreement, how- stationed on Egypt's border. He was said to be the U.S.'s delaying ever, must be reviewed by the U.S. also said it was "impossible" for his action on such Algerian and Third Congress and the Egyptian parlia- country to accept the presence of World concerns as the Law of the ment. Soviet or other foreign bases in Lib- Sea draft treaty. In addition to Britain, the Egypt- yan territory. The Algerian government has re- ian government has also held talks It was also reported that Jalloud

36 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 told a meeting of representatives of ties in Libya after having been Western Sahara before two House seven U.S. oil companies in Tripoli expelled from Zaire in 1979, charac- foreign affairs subcommittees. He in February to notify President terized as "ludicrous" reports in said that arms sales to Morocco Reagan that Libya would like to re- March that it had signed a con- would in the future be based on the sume full diplomatic relations. The tract with the Tripoli government to same criteria as "for other friends," U.S. withdrew most of its diplomats provide medium-range missiles ca- Draper said the U.S. would encour- from the embassy in Tripoli in De- pable of carrying nuclear warheads. age a negotiated settlement to the cember 1979 when the building was The official Moroccan news Western Sahara conflict, but added, burned and looted by protesting agency maintained that Otrag is to "We will not, however, make deci- crowds. An oil executive said, provide Libya with the missile sys- sions on military equipment sales "They probably decided that the tem by 1986 and that Libya was de- explicitly conditional on unilateral U.S. would be a good friend to have veloping a nuclear weapon in a Moroccan attempts to show pro- especially since our oil companies separate program. It also said that gress towards a peaceful negotiated are so important to them." the first missile tests were carried settlement." Qaddafy subsequently summon- out in the Libyan desert by Otrag. Rep. Lee H. Hamilton (D-In) said ed heads of U.S. oil companies in The system is capable of delivering that the Reagan administration was Tripoli and told them that Libya is a nuclear weapon to any target in "tilting" toward Morocco in the economically dependent on oil sales the Middle East and southern Eu- war, despite Draper's claim that the to the U.S., which account for 40 rope, according to the report. U.S. position was still one of percent of Libya's total oil produc- Otrag's technical director, Frank neutrality. Draper said: "I think tion. He asked them to convey his Wukasch, said the company merely the present administration feels message to the President. carried out successful sub-orbital strongly that traditional old friends Qaddafy also made known his in- satellite tests in the Libyan desert such as Morocco need additional terest in improving relations with under an oral agreement with the support and consideration." He France in March after Paris decided country. (London Guardian, March also noted that the tanks would not not to deliver ten gunboats Libya 13, 1981; New York Times, March be delivered for three years and had ordered in 1977. He countered 13. 1981.) were not suited for use in desert ter- his conciliatory remarks with the rain. (New York Times, March 26, claim, however, that the security of Morocco 1981; Washington Post, March 26, 1981.) Chad and Libya is "indivisible." • In late March, the Reagan admin- Most countries, however, con- istration, in its first policy statement tinue to be wary of Qaddafy's re- on the war in the Western Sahara, Sudan cent statements. Sudan, fearing that said it would abandon the Carter ad- • In mid-March, President Gaafar Libyan troops might pursue FAN ministration's efforts to link arms al-Nimeiry put the blame for an rebels into the western part of the sales to Morocco with progress by abortive coup attempt the week be- country, disregarded a report by the the Rabat government toward the fore on Syria and the Soviet Union. Libyan news agency, JANA, that achievement of a negotiated settle- The plot, organized by the military, Qaddafy was interested in strength- ment to the dispute. was led by a retired brigadier, Saad ening Libya's relations with Sudan The announcement, which is re- Bahar, and included three majors and in opening new avenues for ci- and three non-commissioned offi- vilian and military cooperation. Su- garded as a shift in policy, followed the administration's decision in Jan- cers. Eleven people were arrested danese President Gaafar al-Nimeiry in connection with the incident. said in late March that he is "at uary to sell 108 M-60 tanks to Mo- war" with Qaddafy and added that rocco. In late March, the recently Nimeiry said Soviet "infiltration "I think all the world should try to resigned U.S. ambassador to Alge- of Africa and the Gulf region" was a get rid of him." He scolded the ria, Ulric Haynes, sharply criticized "cancer" and stressed that only the West for tolerating Qaddafy be- the Reagan administration for an- U.S. could put an end to it. He also cause of Libya's oil wealth, and said nouncing the tank sales only two said he was prepared to offer facili- "we have to do something to- days after the American hostages ties to U.S. forces in Sudan and in- gether" to "get this man out of the were released from Iran, largely due vited the U.S. to build air bases government by any kind of war, by to the negotiating role played by Al- there to be used jointly by both na- taking him out, by killing him." geria. Haynes said that the first dip- tions'forces if Sudan's security was (Washington Post. March 10 and lomatic contact between the in- threatened. April 1, \9%\\LeMonde, March 31, coming Reagan team and the Al- Nimeiry was said to be concerned 1981; London Observer; March 29, gerian government was the notice of by "the ideological communist in- 1981; Financial Times, February 19 intent to sell the tanks to Rabat. Al- vasion" of Sudan and the possibil- and March 19, 1981; London Times, geria supports the side of the Polisa- ity of attacks or sabotage opera- March4, 1981; Wall Street Journal, rio movement, which is fighting tions, probably due to the strength March 2 1981; Kenya Weekly Re- against Morocco for the Western of the Communist Party in Sudan, view, February 27, 1981.) Sahara's self-determination. which has one million members out The U.S. deputy assistant secre- of a population of 17 million. tary of state for near Eastern and In his 12-year presidency, Ni- • Otrag, the West German rocket south Asian affairs, Morris Draper, meiry has survived two other firm which was given testing facili- made the policy statement on the serious coup attempts, in 1971

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 39 and 1976, as well as a dozen other two countries' border areas. The the territory in 1979 and declared it- minor attempts at the overthrow bank will also finance joint Alger- self neutral in the conflict. In of his government. (London Times, ian-Tunisian projects in foreign March, the Mauritanian govern- March 18 and 20, 1981; Le Monde, countries, particularly in Africa. ment alleged that Morocco was be- March 19, 1981; Sudanese News Also discussed was the establish- hind a failed coup attempt, breaking Agency, March 16, 1981.) ment of four higher training institu- diplomatic relations with Rabat. tions in Algiers and Tunis to cover Some observers indicated that Tunisia cooperative efforts in customs and Polisario is implementing a shift in taxes, banking, insurance, statistics tactics, concentrating its attacks on • Habib Achour, formerly secre- and planning. Additional meetings tary-general of the General Union of Moroccan troops in the central sec- are to be scheduled for discussions tor of the desert, close to the Mauri- Tunisian Workers (UGTT), an- on exchanges in commerce, health, nounced in late March that he tanian border, to stretch Moroccan information, culture, transport and communications and raise the cost would run as a candidate in the elec- teaching. tions to the executive bureau of the of an already expensive war. The union, which are slated to take In addition, the two government SADR also hopes to gain more sup- place at the upcoming UGTT con- representatives decided to compare port from other African countries in gress. international tenders that might be order to assure its admission to the OAU at the July summit in Nairobi. Achour had been jailed following of mutual interest and to set up col- lective buying operations for basic Its admission was forestalled at the the 1978 labor unrest, along with 1980 Freetown summit, despite the scores of other unionists, but was products. This coordination will further strengthen their position rel- fact that a simple majority of mem- released from prison in 1980. Presi- ber countries required to approve dent Habib Bourguiba, in a liber- ative to the European Economic Community's "protectionist poli- admission, 26, indicated their sup- alization of policy toward the port. powerful UGTT, granted clemency cies." (Africa Research Bulletin, to al! the previously jailed activists, February 28, 1981; Le Monde, Feb- In an April statement, Polisario with the exception of Achour and ruary I0andl2, 1981.) condemned the Reagan administra- Salah Brour, another UGTT offi- tion's recent policy actions on the cial. They remain under house ar- Western Sahara Western Sahara, particularly its po- rest, and therefore, according to sition on arms sales to Morocco. officials, are not permitted to be- • The Saharan Arab Democratic The statement read, "The U.S. has come involved in any political or Republic (SADR), created when committed itself to unconditional union responsibilities. Spain withdrew from its former col- support and involvement in the Mo- ony in 1976, marked the fifth anni- roccan war in the Western Sahara Tensions in February and March versary of its founding in late resulting from striking students and . . . and is choosing confrontation February with celebrations in Tin- over international efforts for a transport workers were defused douf, Algeria attended by delega- when Tunisian Prime Minister Mo- peaceful settlement of the question tions from all over the world. At the of the Western Sahara." (London hamed Mzali conceded to most same time, Morocco's King Hassan of their demands. An alleged gov- Guardian, April 3,1981 ;Le Monde, declared that the Western Sahara is March 31, 1981; West Africa, ernment plan to reorganize second- part of his country and he will never ary schools was scrapped after March 16, 1981; Washington Star, relinquish it. He also called for a March4, 1981.) student and teacher strikes and un- meeting with Algerian President rest, followed by transport workers Chadli Benjedid to settle their dif- walking off their jobs in sympathy. ferences over the territory, but he {Financial Times, April 9, 1981; Le said, "If we favor any undertaking SOUTHERN AFRICA Monde, March 30, 1981; Tunis Ra- aimed at ending the conflict, we dio, February 22 and March 5, 1981; cannot allow one that would be car- Angola , 1981.) ried out to the detriment of our terri- • In mid-March, the Reagan ad- • Algerian Prime Minister Moha- torial integrity." ministration asked Congress to re- med Abdelghani met with Prime Meanwhile, the war for control of peal the Clark amendment, adopted Minister Mohamed Mzali of Tunisia the Western Sahara was continuing, in 1976, which prohibits covert or in Tunis in early February to dis- with a major battle in late March for overt U.S. aid to the rebel forces in cuss the formation of a bilateral co- control of the garrison of Guelta- Angola. The administration de- operation program that will en- Zemmour. Polisario claimed it fended its proposal to repeal the compass all major sectors of the drove Moroccan forces out of the ban, regarding it as "an unusually economies in both countries. garrison, killing 500 and wounding all-encompassing restriction on The proposed cooperation agree- 400. Moroccan military officials, on U.S. policy options." William ment calls for the creation of a bank the other hand, denied Polisario's Dyess, the State Department with a capital of $40 million that will statement, but alleged that the Poli- spokesman, said it would be a mis- develop economic, commercial and sario fighters had attacked from take to draw conclusions from the financial cooperation in the re- Mauritanian territory. administration's proposal regarding search, financing and implementa- Mauritania, previously Moroc- future U.S. policy in Africa, which tion of joint projects—particularly co's ally in the war, relinquished its was still under "intensive review." in the industrial sectors—along the control over the southern portion of The proposal to lift the ban elic-

40 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 ited heavy criticism from within the and would "play directly into the Botswana U.S. Congress and from African hands" of the Soviet Union and countries, as many observers saw it Cuba. Former senator Dick Clark, • According to a late March report as an indication of the Reagan ad- author of the amendment, said: in the Johannesburg Star, the Bo- ministration's willingness to aid "One wonders how providing mili- tswana government has granted the Unita, the rebel organization under tary assistance to guerrilla forces Shell Oil Co. a prospecting license Jonas Savimbi, which has been fighting in Angola for the purpose of for the Mmamabula district in the waging a guerrilla war against the overthrowing an established gov- central part of the country, where Angolan government since inde- ernment squares with Secretary substantial coal deposits are known pendence in 1975. During his elec- Haig's persistent criticism of the to exist. tion campaign. President Reagan Soviets for aiding guerrilla groups Shell plans to have a coal mine in had said he was in favor of provid- who are attempting to overthrow operation there by the end of the ing arms to Savimbi. "I don't see established governments." decade, and the coal is to be used anything wrong with someone who primarily for export. The main do- wants to free themselves from the Melvin Hill, whose company has mestic consumers of coal are the rule of an outside power—which is major investments in Angola, said Selebi-Pikwe copper and nickel Cubans and East Germans—I don't the repeal "would have an ex- mines and the Botswana Power see why we shouldn't provide them tremely negative effect, both in An- Commission. with the weapons to do it," he said gola and elsewhere in Africa." He Botswana's President, Quett Ma- during an interview with the Wai! described how "business-like and sire, also announced that a coal- Street Journal during the campaign. non-ideological the MPLA govern- fired power station is to be built at Reagan said in late March, how- ment has been in its relationship Morupule, north of Gaborone. Ac- ever, that the Angolan government with Gulf and other American and cording to Phil Steenkamp, perma- should first "get rid of the outside western multinational companies." nent secretary in the office of the forces" and then the U.S. would try While the Angolan government President, "Coal is the future of to help bring about a peaceful settle- has not come out with open criti- Botswana." It is believed that a ma- ment between the rival factions. cism of the Reagan administration jor program to export coal could The Angolan government, on the since the announcement of the re- provide the country with a needed other hand, maintains that the Cu- peal proposal, the Foreign Minister stimulus for economic develop- ban troops are necessary to protect said his government was maintain- ment. (Johannesburg Star, March the country from South African mil- ing its "usual serenity until things 28, 1981.) itary assaults, stemming from the are concrete." "The U.S. has not conflict in neighboring Namibia. established a clear political line." he stressed. He said his government Lesotho Angola's Foreign Minister Paulo still hopes relations with the U.S. • A series of nine explosions in Ma- Jorge said that the Cubans would can be improved. seru in mid-March was being inves- leave Angola if Namibia gained in- tigated by Lesotho police, who gave dependence because it would end Other African countries have no indication as to who might be re- reasons for South African attacks been harsher in criticism of the sponsible. The explosive devices, against Angola. He also said that Reagan administration's recent said to be homemade, were placed Unita's attacks are decreasing and actions with regard to Africa. Presi- at an electricity substation on the are now limited to soft targets, such dent Shehu Shagari of Nigeria said, banks of the Caledon River border as villages, and to sabotage. Unita is "If the U.S. is willing to support with South Africa. The substation aided militarily by South Africa. rebels in a sovereign African nation, supplies the entire country with Savimbi was scheduled to visit it would be extremely serious." electricity, but it was only slightly Washington to press his case for Prime Minister Robert Mugabe of damaged by the explosions. Zimbabwe, President Samora Ma- American support. State Depart- Previous explosions in Lesotho ment officials confirmed in early chel of Mozambique and President Siaka Stevens of Sierra Leone, had been blamed on the Basotho April that the rebel leader had met Congress Party, an exile opposition in March with Lannon Walker, the chairman of the OAU, all expressed strong displeasure over indications group which has been launching acting assistant secretary of state guerrilla attacks for ten years to for African affairs, in Morocco. that Reagan might take a friendlier attitude toward South Africa and bring down the government of Chief During hearings in the House in might give military support to Leabua Jonathan. (London Guard- late March and early April on the Savimbi. ian, March 12, 1981; Johannesburg proposed lifting of the ban on assist- Radio, March 11, 1981.) ance, heavy opposition came from The assistant secretary of state- Earlier in February, the South Democratic House members and designate for African affairs, Ches- African government was seeking also from Melvin Hill, president of ter Crocker, embarked on a tour of clarification of a statement made by Gulf Oil Exploration and Produc- southern African nations in April in Lesotho Minister of Information tion Co. Rep. Howard Wolpe (D- an attempt to explain the policy of and Broadcasting and acting For- MA), chairman of the House his administration. (Washington eign Minister J.T. Rakhetla, alleg- subcommittee on Africa, said the Post, March 11,20 and 21, and April ing that the country's police had repeal would seriously damage 2, 1981; New York Times, March foiled an attempt by South Africa to U.S. interests throughout Africa 31,1981.) attack Maseru, the capital.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 41 Malawi Union (ZANU) refugee camps tions." The paper said that using which it had passed to the former the military in police operations is • In late March, Blantyre Radio re- white regime in Rhodesia and that "most shortsighted" and would ported that former Minister of the CIA had recruited agents in Mo- "heighten racial tensions sharply." Youth and Culture Gwanda Cha- zambique's key industries "with (Johannesburg Star, March 28, kuamba had been found guilty of the object of worsening our eco- 1981; London Guardian, March 28, four charges lodged against him, nomic difficulties." and was sentenced to 22 years' im- 1981.) prisonment with hard labor. U.S. officials sharply disputed the Mozambique government's • Five black students were brought Chakuamba was arrested and claims and said the expulsions had before a Kimberley court in April ousted from the government in Feb- been ordered after a Cuban espio- on charges stemming from last ruary 1980 and was put on trial be- nage team had seized one of the year's boycott of black schools. ginning in December on charges Americans and tried unsucessfully The five are among 23 detainees including illegal possession of fire- to recruit him as a spy. The State who are either leaders or members arms, prohibited publications and Department said it viewed the ex- of the Galeshewa (black township) photos of rebel ex-ministers, and of pulsions "with most serious con- Action Committee, formed to pre- vocalizing seditious plans against cern" and thought it "not sent the views of pupils and parents the government of President Ka- coincidental" that they came to government officials in an effort muzu Banda. He had been regarded shortly after a group of Americans to negotiate an end to the boycott. as the most powerful political figure who publish the Covert Action In- The boycott was called off at the in Malawi after Banda, and had formation Bulletin, an anti-CIA beginning of this year with the ex- been commander of the President's publication, had visited Mozam- pectation that the 23 detainees personal paramilitary force, the bique. would be released. They are still in Young Pioneer Movement. He had detention. (London Times, April 2, denied all the charges against him. In retaliation for the expulsions, the Reagan administration sus- 1981.) Faindi Phiri, a former member of pended its entire food assistance parliament who was tried along with program to Mozambique. Some $5 • Two South African companies Chakuamba on sedition charges, million in sales of wheat and rice are involved in oil consortiums was also found guilty and sentenced were halted and shipments of 27,000 which have been awarded licenses to five years' hard labor. (Blantyre tons of corn were also stopped in by the British government to pros- Radio, March 20, 1981.) pect for oil in at least two North Sea late March. blocks and perhaps as many as ten. Mozambique The Mozambique government re- Britain's Anti-Apartheid Move- leased from jail an American busi- • The Mozambique government ment revealed in March that Union nessman, Arthur Zimmerman, in Oil Exploration, UK subsidiary of expelled four American diplomats early April who had been held in and two of their wives in early Federale Mynbou, has a 10 percent connection with the alleged spy stake in a consortium managed by March, accusing them of "espio- ring. Zimmerman, an engineer in nage, subversion and interference" Gulf Oil, and Charter Consolidated, the General Tire and Rubber Co. the British subsidiary of the Anglo in government affairs. The two plant in Maputo, had been held for wives were accused of "carrying American Corp. mining conglomer- five weeks. (Washington Post, ate, has a share of a consortium op- out support" for their husbands' March 6 and April 13, 1981; Wash- work. erated by Burmah Oil Explo- ington Star, March 21, 1981; Lon- ration. Maputo alleged that the six don Guardian, March 6, 1981; New Americans were part of a CIA spy York Times, March 5, 1981.) If oil is found and exploited, the ring which included a number of South African companies would Mozambicans and at least two Por- own part of it, although the British tuguese citizens, who were being South Africa government officially embargoes detained. The Ministry of Security • The South African army has been South Africa from receiving its said that the CIA had "intimate participating in raids with the police North Sea oil. links" with South African security on Soweto for some time, it was dis- MP Ted Rowlands, the Labor and intelligence services and that closed in March. Party energy spokesman, said: "It one of the spy ring's tasks had been In one such raid late in March, would be a national disgrace to al- to "collect information on the loca- hundreds of men, both military and low South African interests to buy tion of African National Congress police personnel, surrounded the their way into our North Sea oil as- (ANC) residences and the move- township and swept inwards, using sets." ments of South African refugees in roadblocks, vehicles searches and Norway, Sweden and the Nether- Mozambique." The ministry's house-to-house raids in what the lands were expected to make statement implied that this informa- police described as an "ordinary "strong representations" to the tion was a basis for the January raid crime prevention operation." British government since their by South African commandos on The Johannesburg Star said it had state-owned energy companies are ANC residences in Maputo. known for a while about the use of partners in the Burmah Oil group. The Ministry of Security also said the army in Soweto raids but had (London Guardian, March 18, that the CIA had collected informa- not been able to inform the public 1981; Financial Times, March 17, tion on Zimbabwe African National "because of Defense Act restric- 1981.)

42 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 PERSONAL VIEW

Southern African Reactions to Reagan

BY GWENDOLEN M. CARTER

rom the Cape lo Cairo during the printed in the New York Times, January tions to the change of administration. F first two months of this year, ex- 11. 1981, seemed one of the few early Hendrik Grosskopf, former editor o\' pectations, premonitions, or both of sources. Crocker was introduced there Die Beeld and now head of Die what the Reagan victory would mean to as "Haig's man for Africa") Yet there Nusiomtle Pers, believed that informed southern Africa were my daily fare. were thoughtful discussions that re- Afrikaner sentiment was cautious in its Moderate to extreme elation in right- vealed trends in thinking in significant reactions because there had been such a wing circles in South Africa contrasted sectors that may have long-term sig- false euphoria of expectations over the with restrained or open dismay among nificance. nomination of Barry Gold water in [hose urging effective change in its race At a Cape Town luncheon on January 1964. Willem Kleynhans, UNISA relations. In other parts of southern Af- X, 1981. the assistant editor of Die professor and well-known analyst of rica, the failure of the Geneva confer- Burger, Louis Louw, reacted vigor- the South African scene, had a different ence on Namibia and even the February ously when I sought a comment on the view from his platteland visits. He re- raid on African National Congress Reagan victory. '"It will get Jimmy ported juhilation over the Reagan vic- (ANC> houses on the outskirts of Carter off our backs," he said, "and tory and expectations that it would Maputo were frequently linked to ap- maybe America will keep quiet." But create "a totally different America" prehensions that the '"global" orienta- the former editor of the paper, Piet J. that would "erase everything Carter tion and strategic interests of the new Cillie, now professor of journalism at was doing." John Rees, director of the U.S. administration were encouraging Stellenbosch, differed. "No, not keep South African Institute of Race Rela- the South African government to adopt quiet, but mix criticism with compas- tions, agreed that "Afrikaners gener- a more belligerent external stance. In sion. They should recogni/e the paral- ally welcomed it, and in some circles general, rumors rather than information lelism and tactfully encourge move- were ecstatic because they felt there about the orientation of the Reagan ad- ment." Later, he added. "'There won't would be a more open attitude to South visers formed the basis for comments. be so much difference in terms of Africa, that there would be more under- (An abbreviated version of Chester policies, but what will get better for us standing, and it would reverse Carter's Crocker's article in Foreign Affairs, will be the attitudes. We have usually negative attitude." Kleynhans went so found that the atmosphere is better with far, however, as to express the fear that Republicans." Benjamin Pogrund ag- Prime Minister Botha would have more reed during a Johannesburg conversa- difficulty "doing liberal things" be- Gwendolen M. Carter is a professor of tion on the eve of the inauguration but cause "the rest of the world was going political science at Indiana University and has written widely on South Africa. also saw advantages because it would conservative: Reagan and Thatcher," Her most recent books are Which Way be more difficult for South Africans "to People were "fed up with integration," is South Africa Going? and Southern reject the Reagan crowd on emotional he maintained, "and feel Botha is run- Africa: The Continuing Crisis, edited grounds than it was Carter." ning counter to the rest of the world." a with Patrick O'Meara. Others in Johannesburg expressd comment surprising to the South Afri- sharply differing views on local reac- can liberals to whom I spoke.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 43 Black reactions to the Reagan victory could carry the majority of Afrikaners area of Winterfield. So old policies were scantier but forceful. Dr. Nthato for a national internal settlement" and grind on even as new proposals for Motlana, chairman of the Soweto that he was "amazed that he hesitates." black-white relations are widely be- Committee of Ten, simply said, "The By "acting as a catalyst," the United lieved to be under consideration. United States is disappointing." States could "help move events toward The most far-reaching of these pro- Farouk Khun, news editor ot" Post, a [national] convention," he said, posals are suggested privately to in- Natal, was more forceful: "Every which, to avoid controversy, might be volve some kind of an "internal settle- American who voted for Reagan was an called "a conference." Above all, he ment" in which Africans would be in- indictment against themselves. It's like urged, "there should be less emphasis volved, even as partners. Chief voting for Verwoerd," he charged. on divisions between black parties," Buthelezi's name was often raised in '' Reagan means trouble; he's only good and on "looking for the winner" but such discussions but in my experience for the Nats, the multinationals, and the concentration on the interests of the only by whites. Nelson Mandela is profit factor. Behind every Afrikaner is "majority of the people." most commonly mentioned by blacks, a Rockefeller." And he warned, "In These diverse reactions to the Rea- although among the young the banned southern Africa with Reagan in power, gan victory are at least as revealing on head of the Media Workers Association we are on the brink of a full-scale war. the current state of South African poli- of South Africa (a recent populist out- Other blacks were to join subsequently tics as they are on expectations regard- growth of the Writers Association of in expressing fears that Reagan would ing American policies under the new South Africa). Zwelakhe Sisulu, now be a defender of white-minority rule administration. The Verwoerdian "an- under tight house arrest, is a new hero. and would promote U.S. investment in swer" to South African race relations is What is apparent, however, is that be- South Africa that would tie the two widely recognized as having imposed a hind many of the discussions in white countries closer together. (In a lengthy straitjacket on government policies af- circles within South Africa of the pos- and rare interview with Gary Thatcher, fecting Africans. But having freed itself sible implications of the Reagan ad- published in the Christian Science largely from the earlier dogmas, the ministration's policies toward their Monitor on March 13, 1981, Winnie Botha government has not yet deter- country lies an almost equal uncertainty Mandela, one of the most influential of mined its own consistent lines of pol- regarding the character of its own future black activists, called President Reagan icy. Thus, it combines apparent "re- policies. Few blacks, on the other hand, "no friend of the black people of South forms" with counter-act ions that expect advantages for their people from Africa" and said his statements made it threaten still more uncertainties and re- whatever may ensue; on the contrary. "quite clear he's going to promote strictions. almost all seem reinforced in their be- apartheid." Stating that "violence in A notable example were the legisla- lief that basic change in South Africa this country is inevitable," she added, tive proposals taken to Parliament in will come only as the result of their own "We want an end to our struggle. January 1981, in which provisions av- efforts. America could do us a favor by just owedly intended to reinforce African On the implications for Zimbabwe of getting out of our way." Since Mrs. stability in urban areas were combined the Reagan victory, the most optimistic Mandela is banned, she cannot be with others undercutting the one legis- expectations were voiced from Johan- quoted in South Africa.) lative guarantee of African "perma- nesburg by David Willers, senior ad- nence" in those areas by transforming Another possible result of Reagan visor to the South African Foundation, Section 10 (a), (b), and (c) rights into policies, voiced by a labor specialist who was reported by Voice of America regulations that would have been sub- from the University of Cape Town, was as saying, "I think you'll see Reagan ject to administrative decisions. In the that they might "generate new activity move quickly and firmly to cement ties period during which this latter provi- in the black community in America, with Mugabe" and "befriend Zim- sion was still under consideration, a and thus put more pressure on the ad- babwe more forcibly than others could prominent African leader exclaimed to ministration to take a positive approach think . . ." He added, "Mugabe is seen me bitterly. "It makes me feel like an to the South African situation." But as an ally of the West," and "has been animal that can be pushed anywhere." future American policies toward South especially cool to the Soviet Union. By Africa were generally viewed by blacks Although this threat to the Section 10 signing the Lome II agreement, with dismay and even alarm. rights of urban Africans has been re- Mugabe has placed himself firmly in moved, at least temporarily, massive the Western trading zone." Within Chief Gatsha Buthelezi, head of African resettlement continues. North Zimbabwe itself, however, mining, Kwa-Zulu and Inkatha, was one of the of Pretoria, long-domiciled families of agriculture, and industrial leaders (all few to endorse specifically the Ameri- farm laborers in the northern Transvaal white) were reported as expressing can role in South Africa outlined in are being moved to the new Kwa- hopes, rather than assurances, of Crocker's Foreign Affairs article while Ndebele "homeland"; so too are those American support, fearing that at the same time criticizing the "false of African laborers in Pretoria and — Mugabe's avowed long-term socialist euphoria in white South Africa" over through a denial of essential labor per- objectives might inhibit such aid. Sub- Reagan. His own view of the South mits to their men — African families sequently, however, John Hillis, African situation was that "Botha previously living in the African-owned Chairman of the Confederation of Zim-

44 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 C () M M () N W L. ALIII A (. R I C U L I U R A L BURUUX

CATTLE, ECONOMICS AND THE ECONOMICS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURE by R Crotty by Professor Bernd Andrcae This book is concerned with the contribution of Misc. Publications No. 3 of the Commonwealth cattle to economic welfare and development, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. particularly in developing countries. Detailed supporting evidence from many A model is developed identifying six basic types developing and developed countries is used to of cattle-keeping situations, including the Soutli show how the variety of climatic and ecological American, African. Indian and South Fast conditions in the tropics combines with Asian types. ITiis model is used to explain the different man/land ratios and with changing decision-making process of cattle owners in the relative prices for land, labour and capital to light of the prevailing cultural, institutional. produce a series of typical patterns in the factory supply and product demand condition1.. evolution of farming systems. The book points It is seen that the application o\' modern tech- out that the understanding of these processes is nology to traditional cattle-keeping is often essential to the selection of suitable develop- harmful, and the author empha/es the need ment policies in tropical and sub-tropical for social and economic changes in many countries and discusses their implications for countries. increasing food supplies in the World's poorest countries. Three main areas of interest are developed: live- stock husbandry, cultural-institutional arrange- !7Spp., manv n'fs., 33 figs., 48 rabies, hardback. ments and economics, and the intended reader- October 19S0. ship is therefore broad. Agronomists, anthro- lSii\ 0-S51^-433-3 £8.00 pologists, geographers, economists, sociologists and veterinarians will all find that their fields of interest are covered. Carriage charge UK post free 253pp.. -4jigs.. 6! tables, hardback. USA & Canada lO'r extra October 1 WO. Far hast excl. India & Japan 20'f extra ISBS 0-S31VS-452-5 £ 1 5.00 AM other areas 15'; extra Obtainable through your local Bookseller or direct from: Cent nil SaW. Common wealth Agricultural Bureaux. 1 arnham House. I arnham Royal. Sloush SL3 3BN. U.K.

New and Recent African Studies from HOOVER INSTITUTION PRESS

Africa South of the Sahara From the Frontline The Challenge to western Security speeches of Sir seretse Khama L. H. Cann ana Peter Duignan Gwendolen M. Carter and E. Philip Morgan, editors The problems of Africans, Cann and Duignan show With the publication of this book. President Seretse us, are not caused by the machinations of neo- Khama of Botswana moves out of the shadows colonialists or by the so-called dependency linkages into the light where sympathizers and critics alike with the West. Africans are basically responsible for can compare what he has said with what he has done. their own troubles. The authors challenge the 252 pp. ISBN: 0-8179-4271-3 1980 S26.95 new class1 of American liberals who blame Africa s problems on the slave trade and imperialism. 128 pp. ISBN: 0-8179-7382-6 1981 $9.95 A Biographical Dictionary of the British Thomas George Lawson colonial Governor: African Historian and Administrator in volume t, Africa Sierra Leone Anthony H. M. Kirk-Greene David E. Skinner Kirk-Greene has compiled, with precision and careful Skinners study is both a narrative and an analytical assimilation, the biodata of some two hundred account of Lawson s family and his career as the holders of the post of Governor, or its Colonial Service primary advisor to the governor of Sierra Leone on equivalent, in the British African territories between African affairs from 1846-1889. ca. 1878 and 1968. 254 pp. ISBN: 0-8179-7221-8 1980 $10.95 256 pp. ISBN: 0-8179-2611-9 1980 $31.95

Please send payment with order plus $1.50 p/h to: HOOVER INSTITUTION PRESS • Dept. 8084 • Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 (CA residents add 6-61/2% tax) VISA and Mastercard orders accepted by phone: (415) 497-3373 babwe Industries and a member of the gola, and more particularly the South Important as Zimbabwe's needs are, Media Trust, said more positively, African raid in February 1981 on ANC they pale beside those of Mozambique "We are expecting good things from houses on the outskirts of Maputo and Tanzania. In the former, there was Reagan." coupled with the lack of even mild U.S. a special concern among those who felt Zimbabwean officials had also been criticism of this invasion, have inten- they had successfully urged concentra- cautious in commenting on the change sified these fears. As a highly placed tion on development needs and now in I he American administration, Tanzanian official said to me: "We live realized that the South African raid balancing the appeal of Mugabe's cool- in trepidation." made it inevitable that funds would be ness to the Soviet Union against his Concern over the Reagan adminis- diverted to defense. They also worried, stated objective of ultimately moving tration policies expressed by Zimbab- with reason, that Mozambique's recent Zimbabwe to a fully socialist state. But wean leaders and others among the openness to Western investment might as Anthony Ryder, central African Frontline states extends also, of course. be replaced perforce by more depen- editor of the Cape Times, remarked in to economic policies and potential cuts dence on the Soviet Union and the East- private conversation, "Mugabe is a in foreign aid. Despite what the United ern bloc. very mild Marxist." States feels has been a fairly substantial In Tanzania, the drain of ever in- Although no Zimbabwean political aid package for Zimbabwe — $14.5 creasing costs of oil, coupled with the figures commented publicly on Rea- million at independence and $75 mil- growing need to import food for its ex- gan's victory, they were said to be lion budgeted by the Carter administra- panding population, is threatening the "mildly suspicious" of his intentions tion (which Reagan's administration viability of its economy. Thus, their towards South Africa and wary re- has not yet confirmed) — Zimbabwean ever growing need for foreign aid and garding his policies towards a Nami- officials still speak of the "Kissinger their deepening concern lest the Reagan bian settlement and South Africa itself. billions" and the '"pledges" during the administration impose severe restric- Professor Hasu Patel of the University Lancaster House negotiations. (The tions on American contributions. of Zimbabwe, who has wide experience Kissinger Plan of 1976 suggested There are still many uncertainties in the United States, felt there was, in US$1.5 billion for land settlement, de- both at home and abroad about the im- fact, "no way in which Reagan can velopment, and compensation for those plications of the Reagan victory. In re- support the South African govern- desiring to emigrate.) Zimbabweans, gard to South Africa, how will U.S. ment' ' but believed that he would particularly those concerned with the distaste for its legally imposed racial "soft-pedal on sanctions." Most con- Donors Conference in late March and discrimination be weighed by right- structively, he suggested that Reagan the country's economic future, point wing politicians against the attraction could do "a Carrington" on Namibia. out the crucial need for external funds of its strategic minerals and position The deeply disappointing failure of to enable them to carry through essen- and its government's outspoken anti- the Geneva conference on Namibia was tial rehabilitation, resettlement, and re- communism? Even more influential on widely interpreted privately within the construction in their postwar situation Reagan's policies may be what in- Frontline states as resulting at least in in order to provide foundations on terpretation is given to such reforms as part from the Botha government's ex- which the country can then build. They the Botha government makes after the pectation that the new U.S. administra- point to the moderation of their plans April election. Regardless of the pol- tion would be less forceful than the and their assurances of stability to the icies the Reagan administration may Carter one had been in pressing for white commercial farmers and to pri- follow, however, what happens in the UN-supervised elections leading to- vate mining and business interests. long run in South Africa will be deter- wards Namibian independence. They also stress the unusual poten- mined by the blacks, and not by the Whether this is true or not, Zimbabwe, tialities of their economy, in which ag- whites. like other Frontline states, remains riculture, manufacturing, and mining Zimbabwe's moderate socioeco- committed to continued support for are balanced to a degree not rivaled by nomic programs, coolness to the Soviet SWAPO and to an ultimate Namibian any other African-controlled state. (By Union, determined nonracialism, and independence based, as was its own, on 1975, manufacturing had become the promising economy may well be at- internationally supervised elections. single largest contributor to Zimbabwe tractive to a conservative regime. If so, GDP at 24.0 percent, with agriculture The particular fear among the extensive U.S. aid can speed up Zim- close behind with 20.6 percent, and Frontline states is that South Africa babwe's development along the lines it mining at 6.7 percent.) In general, may be planning overt moves to de- has already laid down but is certain to Zimbabwe feels it can make special stabilize them. Mugabe has warned continue to pursue in any case. But for claims on the international community Parliament of the threat posed by Mozambique and Tanzania, aid if it because of the distinctiveness of its former Rhodesian armed forces massed comes will probably only result from situation and the key role it can be ex- in the northern Transvaal and of the long-term calculations on the value of pected to play in the emerging grouping need, therefore, for a Zimbabwean their stability in an area of marked vol- of southern African states seeking to army far larger than most external ob- atility. In the meantime, to reiterate the lessen their dependence on South Af- servers feel is necessary. Incursions by comment from Tanzania, they "live in rica. South African forces into southern An- trepidation." •

46 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 ANALYSIS

Politics in Trans-Saharan Africa

BY ROBERT A. MORTIMER

he Libyan tanks that rolled into ers in this nascent trans-Saharan sys- Saharan Africa is of no small interest to T Ndjamena in mid-December 1980 tem. Both have the human, material, the United States as well. Before de- were not solely a decisive intcrvention- and ideological resources to give them fining American interest in the area, ary force in Chad's civil war. They weight in the regional balance of one must understand this reshaping of were tangible manifestations of a proc- power. Like Libya, they have exploited the very boundaries of political space ess of change that is transforming poli- their power to influence region-wide that underlies day-to-day events in the tics in a vast region of Africa. Maghreb, issues. These three states are poles that region. Two wars, in Chad and in Sahara, Sahel, and the coastal belt from cannot be ignored by the other states of Western Sahara, have been the foci Guinea to Nigeria are all becoming part the region as they seek to preserve their around which extensive region-wide of a single geopolitical unit that I shall own interests. diplomacy has been conducted. It is call trans-Saharan Africa. The balance of power in trans- necessary to examine these specific The subsequent announcement that Chad and Libya would merge was un- duly hasty and more symbolic than real. Although politically premature, it fur- ther dramatized the fact that a geopolitical struggle of far-reaching dimensions and enormous consequence is underway in this huge theater. Power is being redistributed in North and West Africa transforming two African sub- systems into a new geopolitical entity- Col. Muammar Qaddafy's Libya is clearly a major actor in this emergent region. Oil power and a visionary con- ception of a new political order have made it so. Nigeria and Algeria, OPEC-mates and diplomatically inf- luential states, are the other major pow-

Robert A. Mortimer is chairman of the Department of Political Science at Haverford College, Pennsylvania. He is currently working on a study of the Third World in international politics.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 47 most publicized venture into African affairs and turned out rather badly. Yet Libya was gradually becoming more and more deeply involved in Af- rica over the 1970s, first as a patron of the Palestine Liberation Organization but eventually in behalf of its own vis- ion of a culturally revolutionary Afri- can Islamic movement. The interven- tion in Chad had its own deep roots, reaching back to the early 1970s. The merger announcement of January 1981 was the end-product of a long involve- ment in the faction-tom country. Although the National Liberation Front of Chad (Frolinat) was created in Sudan in 1966, Libya under Qaddafy promptly established contact with the dissident movement that controlled much of the northern part of the coun- try. In 1971 Chad's President Francois Tombalbaye broke relations with Libya after an attempted coup d'etat against him. A few years later, Libya occupied the contested Aouzou Strip along the northern border while maintaining a close support relationship with Frolinat. The stress of civil war and other problems did bring down Tom- Col. Muammar Qaddafy's Libya is a major actor in the emergent trans-Saharan balbaye in 1975, but the new govern- system ment had no greater success in ending the Frolinat rebellion despite profound conflicts and their spillover into the af- Tuareg clansmen in Niger and Mali, to divisions within the rebel movement it- fairs of many other states to perceive the Polisario Front in Western Sahara, self. the broad lines of the emergent trans- to dissidents in Senegal and fun- Libya chose to back the Toubou. Saharan system. Once the contour of damentalist cults in Nigeria. The gov- Goukouni Woddeye, son of the Derdc the region has been delineated and its ernments of these states have expressed or traditional Toubou leader who him- politics clarified, one can examine the concern over Libya's creation of an self had long been in exile in Tripoli. implications for American policy. "Islamic Legion," apparently manned Woddeye broke with the fervently Until recently the Sahara has been by recruits from throughout the region. anti-Libyan Hissene Habre and con- more a barrier than a bridge. There was Col. Muammar Qaddafy's vision of a solidated control over the dominant no steady flow of transactions across Saharan republic, long dismissed as a force within Frolinat in 1977. At this the desert. To be sure, caravans or castle of sand, is now viewed as a gen- point, Habre, having reconstituted a cavalry, traders and soldiers occasion- uine threat by several Sahelian states. new force personally loyal to him, ally linked Maghreb to Sahel. So too In broader perspective, Libya's probing negotiated with the central government did Muslim missionaries, but the ex- trans-Saharan policy is a harbinger of of Gen. Felix Malloum, which he en- change was limited even if a common new regional forces. tered as prime minister in 1978, claim- faith took hold throughout much of the Libya has of course pursued ambiti- ing that the country was under invasion area. "Trans-Saharan" denoted pas- ous external goals ever since the 1969 from Libya. Goukouni Woddeye, sage ways that were centuries old but revolution. For several years. Col. characterizing his alliance with Libya only intermittently traveled. The Sa- Qaddafy seemed most concerned with as tactical, kept the pressure on the hara was not a bridge but a vast sea to be Arab affairs and events in the Middle Ndjamena toalition that collapsed into traversed. East. His repeated efforts to forge Arab armed conflict (between Malloum and Today petrodollars and Islamic revi- unions — with Egypt, later with Habre) early in 1979. val are constructing some spans, for Tunisia, and most recently with Syria With Chad virtually shattered, an many of which Libya is the master ar- — apparently relegated his concern inter-African mediation effort pro- chitect. Libyan spans reach out to fac- with Africa to secondary status. duced a temporary settlement (the Kano tions in Ndjamena, to Toubou and Uganda under Idi Amin was Qaddafy's Accord of March 1979) that brought

48 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 Woddeye to power, initially as chair- nifies is the incorporation of Chad not The expulsion of Libyan diplomats man of a provisional "Council of into Libya (the merger announcement from Lagos and an increase in the State" and eventually as president of notwithstanding) but into the trans- Nigerian military budget were further the GUNT or "Transitional Govern- Saharan geopolitical system. signs of Nigerian uneasiness in the af- ment of National Union." The GUNT Over the past two years Chad's af- termath of Chad. In sum, West African was composed of no less than 11 fac- fairs have become a region-wide con- policymakers up and down the coast tions of which four were most impor- cern. The succession of diplomatic- were operating as if they believed that a tant: Goukouni's wing of Frolinat; conferences in Kano, Lagos, Lome, trans-Saharan system existed. Habre's new FAN (Armed Forces of and elsewhere has involved a large num- The other major intraregional con- the North); the southern group now ber of states and the Organization of flict concerns the territory of Western under the leadership of Col. Wadal African Unity (OAU) in the Chadian Sahara. The rise of a coherent liberation Kamougue; and another pro-Libyan question. Although the Libyan inter- movement, however dependent upon movement led by Ahmat Acyl. Habre, vention has nullified the practical im- external allies, in this long-ignored who was the defense minister under pact of these diplomatic efforts, the fact chunk of desert is another manifestation these delicate provisional arrange- remains that Nigeria, Senegal, Niger, of Saharan peoples influencing the ments , complained of harassment of the Togo, Guinea, Benin, and others have emergence of a trans-Saharan system. FAN by Libyan troops and the. pro- been drawn into the struggle for power Although Morocco and Algeria have Libyan groups. Once more Chad lapsed in Chad. They recognize that they are been the foremost state actors in this into civil war in March 1980 as the part of the same trans-Saharan system. conflict, Mauritania has also been pro- collage government came unstuck, ap- One explicit linkage is obvious to foundly affected while Senegal, Mali, parently under Libyan pressure to President Seyni Kountche of Niger and Niger have felt the reverberations eliminate Habre. which has a minority Toubou popula- of the war. Others including Guinea The final phase of the Libyan inter- tion in the east related to those of and Nigeria have been involved vention occurred in incremental stages Tibesti and Fezzan. Niger claims that through the OAU's Ad Hoc Commit- beginning with a defense agreement broadcasts from Libya have urged these tee. Now after five years of military and signed with Woddeye in June. Over the Toubou to rise up against the regime in diplomatic struggle, there are persistent next several months, Libyan troops Niamey. In mid-November, Kountche rumors of secret negotiations to achieve gradually reinforced Woddeye's men issued a joint statement with President a compromise settlement. Diplomatic and established staging areas in the Ahmadou Ahidjo of Cameroon de- resolution of this issue would be sig- country. In November, while the OAU ploring foreign intervention in Chad, nificant for a large number of states. labored for a cease-fire, a Libyan air and personally consulted with President The roots and evolution of the West- base was reported under construction Gnassingbe Eyadema of Togo, who ern Sahara conflict have been well cov- only 40 miles north of the capital. Both was active in the OAU mediation ef- ered in this magazine (see especially Libyan aviation and armored vehicles fort. Africa Report, March-April 1978, engaged in the final offensive that Libyan broadcasts are also repor- May-June, and September-October, drove Habre's forces from Ndjamena. tedly beamed to the Tuaregs, a popu- 1980). Suffice to recall that Morocco Some 6,500 Libyan troops were esti- lation long at odds with the authorities has historically claimed sovereignty mated to have participated in the overall in Bamako, Mali. The general theme of over large stretches of the Sahara while operations; after years of covert in- these broadcasts is the purity and gran- Algeria has sought to contain Moroccan volvement, Qaddafy achieved his first deur of the Muslim civilization of the expansion, notably through the inde- military victory near the shores of Lake nomads. This appeal has great emo- pendence of the Spanish Saharan col- Chad. tional impact during this era of Islamic ony. Toward this end, Algeria nurtured Chad was of course an exceptionally revival, but even more important than close relations with Ould Daddah's vulnerable target after 15 years of civil the message is the evidence that Qad- Mauritania from the mid-1960s through war. Internal strife invites external in- dafy is arming a force whose ultimate 1974. Algiers supplied technical assis- tervention. Libya's cultivation of the mission is presumably to liberate a tance in the training of police and inter- Saharan Toubou leaders was a readily "Saharan Islamic republic." nal security personnel and conducted available means of influence in so por- Well before the battle of Ndjamena, frequent diplomatic consultations with ous a political situation. Libya simply ex-President Leopold Senghor of Nouakchott. Overly confident about capitalized upon its advantageous Senegal denounced this "mercenary this relationship, the Algerians were geographic position to shape the out- army" as a threat to regional stability. aghast when Ould Daddah decided to come of the most recent round in this Senghor's decision to dispatch troops to accept King Hassan's 1975 offer to long — and no doubt ongoing — strug- the Gambia last November to shore up partition the Spanish territory. gle for power (for Goukouni Woddeye President Dawda Jawara revealed his Outmaneuvered by Hassan on the and Col. Kamougue of the cotton and sensitivity to signs of destabilization. western Hank of the Sahara, Algeria food-growing south must now agree on So too did the Nigerian government's cultivated closer ties with Mali and how to govern Chad). What the victory violent reaction to a dissident cult in Niger, instituting periodic summit of Woddeye over his rival Habre sig- Kano alleged to be backed by Libya. meetings of this "greater Saharan"

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 49 grouping in which Libya also partici- paralyzed diplomatically. It does not trans-Saharan system that can influence pated on the early occasions. This wish to offend Morocco, which now the outcome of a dispute in which it has series of meetings enabled Algeria to occupies all the territory that once pro- high stakes. develop a good working relationship vided a buffer; the Polisario, which Moroccan policy is likewise domi- with Generals Seyni Kountche and roams across Mauritanian territory; nor nated by the conflict over Western Sah- Moussa Traore and to impress upon Algeria, its ally in the cause of recon- ara. It has sought to parry Algerian (hem the utility of cooperation in deal- stituting some kind of buffer state. diplomacy in order to gain recognition ing with their Tuareg populations. Haplessly caught up in the turbulence as the legitimate sovereign of the con- Algeria has probably the most stable of regional change, Mauritania's fate tested territory. Diplomatically this has relationship with the Tuaregs through depends largely upon other states' deci- been a losing battle as Algeria has suc- its administration in Tamanrasset and sions to stabilize the trans-Saharan cessfully exploited the norm of national an emergency food distribution pro- system. Algerian and Mauritanian self-determination. By the time of the gram that reaches the northern Malian interests are, however, relatively com- Freetown summit, the Sahrawi population as well. At the most recent patible, and Mauritania can serve as a government-in-exile was recognized by of these Saharan summits in March representative of their joint preferences 26 African states. Under these adverse 1980, Benjedid offered Mali further aid in Senegal and some of the other Fran- diplomatic conditions, Morocco step- essentially in return for Malian support cophone states in the area. ped up its military effort last spring by on the Western Sahara issue. Not only Algeria could use a friend at court in deploying three new mobile divisions. is Moussa Traore a member of the OAU Dakar. Senghor has seen Algeria as These forces have shored up the mili- committee on the conflict but more im- entertaining hegemonic aspirations in tary situation but have done little to portantly he has not objected to Polis- the Sahelian belt. The two states nor- stem the diplomatic deterioration. ario recruitment and freedom of move- mally come down on opposite sides of Hence King Hassan has been obliged ment in the northern Malian corridor to African and global issues and Senghor to entertain some kind of compromise Mauritania. immediately rallied to the Moroccan/ {a Vafricaine in Senghor's words — or Algeria's "greater Saharan" 'policy Mauritanian cause in 1975. Now that otherwise). At least exploratory talks contrasts with Libya's instigation to re- Mauritania's position has changed (and are widely presumed to be underway, sist central authorities. Libya harbors, Houari Boumedienne has passed from notably by the Moroccan press that has among others. Sidi Demba Soumanou, the scene), Senghor maybe less worried begun to criticize the government for its one of the Malian opposition figures. about Algerian ambitions. (One can as- "pacifist" outlook. Both Algeria and One can assume that circumscribing sume that Senghor, the party leader, Morocco are no doubt weary of the Qaddafy is a factor in the calculations of will continue to have influence on costs of the war. but they must find a Niger, Mali, and Algeria although the foreign policy even though he has formula that humiliates neither. On the Algero-Libyan relationship is a com- turned the presidency over to Abdou Algerian side, this means that Polisario plex amalgam of cooperation and com- Diouf.) In opening the Freetown OAU must gain something. Recent disclo- petition. Libya has supported Algeria summit last July, Senghor appealed for sures concerning earlier futile negotia- on Western Sahara but may now a "dynamic African-style com- tions indicate that Polisario was the threaten to displace Algeria as the pat- promise" on Western Sahara. Al- ''grain of sand" that prevented a ron of Polisario. Assuming that Algeria though leaning toward Morocco's con- smooth reconciliation. On the Moroc- is now discretely pursuing a diplomatic ception of an appropriate compromise can side, the king can not lightly re- settlement, the Libyan factor could be- — Senegal being one of only six states nounce very much of what he has come an unwanted constraint. to vote with Morocco against the claimed. The task of accommodating Upon the overthrow of Ould Daddah Algerian-sponsored resolution at the both parties' needs is formidable. in 1978, Algeria resumed its ties with UN last fall — Senegal's position has While the major responsibilty lies with Mauritania successfully urging Nouak- become more flexible along with that of Algeria and Morocco, the sanction of chott's disengagement from the Saha- the other interested parties. several other trans-Saharan states could ran war. Mauritania has been crippled Does Algeria seek hegemony in the provide a helpful collective legitimiza- by its futile campaign to annex its hunk Sahel? There is no doubt that Algeria tion of a settlement. of the Saharan partition. Many blacks remains an activist state with a vision of Nigeria is the third major actor in this from southern Mauritania entered the progressivism in Africa as a whole. It emergent international subsystem. As army during 1975-7K; now they are has usually tempered its vision with a noted above, it has been diplomatically pressuring the regime for civil and eco- hearty dose of realism, however; its involved in both the Western Saharan nomic rights long denied. Moors from current policies are dominated by its conflict and Chad's civil war. Having the north, on the other hand, have been dispute with Morocco, and its initia- striven for a broad national union com- throwing in their lot with Polisario, tives in the Sahel/Sahara are designed promise in Chad, it is dismayed by the more attracted by the prospect of a to isolate Morocco diplomatically. turn of events there and is concerned to separate Sahrawi republic than affilia- Rather than hegemony, Algeria courts limit further Libyan interventionism. tion with a bankrupt Mauritania. influence in the Sahel to keep Morocco Quite aside from this immediate con- Nouakchott, its finances in shambles under pressure. The black African cern, Nigeria has been pursuing a broad as a consequence of the war, is virtually states are seen in Algiers as actors in a policy of regional economic involve-

50 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 Pollsario fighters: "Key to reducing tensions in the area is resolving the Western Sahara dispute' merit through ils support of the Eco- these three former French colonies. In Senegal, and Upper Volta) been dis- nomic Community of West African the case of Chad, where Nigeria sought banded, reflecting ambivalence toward States (ECOWAS). to neutralize both French and Libyan Nigerian intentions. Yet ECOWAS, As the Nigerian writer Olatumle Ojo influence, it failed and stirred up mis- fragile as it is, has undeniably served to has emphasized, Nigeria embarked givings in Senegal and Ivory Coast to orient Nigeria toward a regional envi- upon a sustained '"diplomatic offen- boot. The failure revealed the limits of ronment that other forces have rendered sive" in the early 1970s to create Nigerian power but intensified the sen- trans-Saharan. ECOWAS: "It took Nigerian leader- timent that Lagos had interests to de- What then are the implications of this ship, extensive efforts in national co- fend in the Sahel and Sahara. The am- new African configuration for United alition formation, and even more inten- bition to mold a West African unit States policy? While the old geopoliti- sive and difficult regional negotiations necessarily implicates Nigeria in cal divisions {Arabs in the Maghreb, and coalition formation to get trans-Saharan geopolitics. Francophones and Anglophones in ECOWAS inaugurated." The decision ECOWAS itself remains a fragile in- West Africa) may have been simpler to to press hard toward an eventual re- strument. At best it has been "inching work with, it is necessary first to ac- gional common market was a signifi- towards implementation" as Ralph knowledge that these colonially be- cant step in redefining economic and Onwuka has put it. It took four years queathed units are relics of a past age. political space. from the signature of the treaty in 1975 The new regional powers do not delimit The ECOWAS treaty associates 16 to carry out the first state of trade their interests inside these boundaries states from Mauritania to Nigeria in an liberalization. Early decisions on per- and their impact can not be contained effort to transcend colonial boundaries. sonnel, budgets, and free movement of within them. American policy planning Although conceived in terms of "West "community citizens" proved con- must acknowledge the dynamics of the Africa," the entity includes the states troversial. A jurisdictional dispute be- trans-Saharan system and the preemi- of Niger, Mali, and Mauritania that we tween the Ivoirian executive director nent capability of the three OPEC (Or- have seen to be crucial links in the and the Liberian managing director of ganization of Petroleum Exporting trans-Saharan system. As Nigeria sees the Community Fund delayed organi- Countries) states. ECOWAS as an instrument to pry zational progress. Nor has the Fran- All three are committed to change, French influence out of the area, it must cophone CEAO (comprising Ivory namely to enhancing the political and concern itself with the security fears of Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, economic autonomy of the region as a

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 51 whole. Their notions of how to effect satisfy the latter parties without humili- which makes it realistic to assume that change are not identical however. ating Hassan and thereby menacing his the OAU could be used to sanction a Algeria and Nigeria have essentially throne? Somehow diplomatic ingenuity settlement as suggested above. pragmatic conceptions of economic de- must come up with an affirmative an- Resolution of the Western Sahara velopment through coordinated na- swer to this question. issue will not undo the extension of tional and regional policies of increas- This requires enticing Morocco into Libyan power into northern Chad. The ing self-reliance. This is a goal that the greater flexibility, but it does not mean reduction of tensions that it would pro- United States can share. Libya in pur- abandoning Morocco. The United vide, however, is a precondition for suing more directly interventionary States can persuasively argue to Hassan containing Libyan influence within rea- policies sees subversion as a means of that Morocco, Algeria, and the United sonable bounds. The future course of transformation. The United States by States share an interest in limiting Lib- politics in Ndjamena, notably the rela- itself can do little to affect Libyan be- yan influence in the Western Sahara. tions between northern and southern havior, but it can associate itself with Libyan opportunities to cultivate Po- peoples, depends in part upon the over- the majority of states, Algeria and lisario continue so long as the war is all external environment. The south has Nigeria included, that seek a general- prolonged. One can furthermore no desire to become a Libyan satellite. ized reduction of tensions. imagine schemes for the joint exploita- Goukouni Woddeye must weigh the The first step to such a cool-down tion of mineral resources, confederal cost of losing the south against the ben- must be taken in Western Sahara. The arrangements for the most harshly efit of a close Libyan connection. moment seems ripe, as indicated Having been caught short by the scale above, for a sustained diplomatic effort of last fall's intervention, Chad's to reach a compromise settlement. Al- neighbors (and France) are now exert- though the American role is indirect ing countervailing pressure encourag- and secondary, the United States does ing Col. Kamougue to resist complete have some leverage to encourage a satellitization. realistic solution. To resolve this long-festering conflict is clearly in the Libya is likely to remain the rebel in American interest and requires both the trans-Saharan region, but is un- diplomatic subtlety and pressure. likely to dominate the area except under To date, while retaining an officially conditions of generalized insecurity. A neutral posture, American policy has French diplomat recently characterized tilted towards Morocco. Under great Qaddafy as the man who "wants to pressure from Rabat, the Carter ad- unite everything that lives under a ministration decided late in 1979 to sell tent." The political awakening of de- arms to Morocco. At the same time, the sert society has, as we have seen, con- sale was publicly justified as an incen- tributed to the emergence of a trans- President Chadli Benjedid: Algeria is tive to King Hassan to negotiate. Al- "an activist state with a vision of Saharan system. Qaddafy's vision of a though this logic was too subtle for progressivism in Africa" "Saharan Republic" can not be dismis- some observers, there is evidence that sed as a force in regional affairs. Yet the the United States has indeed been urg- contested territory, and financial aid "Islamic Legion" notwithstanding, its ing Morocco to negotiate seriously. offers to guarantee postwar economic realization is a more secure environ- These moves, of course, predate the development. Such diplomatic imagi- ment. The key to reducing tensions recent Algerian role in the hostage nation is necessary to sweeten what will throughout the area turns upon resolv- negotiations with Iran. It is reasonable inevitably be a bitterly controversial ing the Western Saharan dispute. to assume that Algeria expects the settlement. By the same token, Algeria To defuse tensions is not to cast the United States to maintain such pres- and the Polisario Front must be urged to status quo in bronze. States like Nigeria sure. recognize Morocco's stake in avoiding and Algeria will continue to promote What is required to achieve an ac- national disgrace. gradual progressive change. With its ceptable settlement? A breakthrough Whatever the means, the United natural and human resources, Algeria is depends upon Moroccan willingness to States should do its utmost to facilitate a the core state of the Maghreb. Algeria cede territory to the Polisario Front, settlement because this is the key to thinks in trans-Saharan terms in facing thus to provide a homeland for the trans-Saharan politics in the near-term. Africa's most fundamental issue — ec- Saharan Arab Democratic Republic. The turbulence in Western Sahara has onomic development. Nigeria likewise Morocco, one can speculate, is ready to encouraged a climate of tension that is a core state increasingly convinced yield something (for example, Tiris el encourages Libyan probes elsewhere in that events throughout the region affect Gharbia, the southern third of the the Sahara and Sahel. It has polarized its own developmental prospects. Spanish colony first annexed and later relations as Morocco and Algeria have These two states are worthy partners for surrendered by Mauritania), but pre- bid for diplomatic support. A defused, the United States in encouraging prog- sumably not enough to satisfy Polisario less competitive regional environment ress toward greater human welfare in and its patron Algeria. Is it possible to is in the interests of nearly everyone, trans-Saharan Africa. D

52 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 GUINEA

Myth and Reality of Change

BY LANSINE KABA uinea is a country of salient splendor. But the tone quickly changes more fear you find — fear of being seen G paradoxes. Its leader. President when comparison is made with Dakar to be subversive." This is why the Gui- Sekou Toure, is a mixture of intrinsic and Abidjan, two truly modern urban nean counterparts of foreign experts qualities and frailties, a man of great centers in West Africa. The Guinean working in Guinea are literally ter- contradictions. Now that for the first capital is a city without pretense, an rorized at being assigned to work with a time since the mid-1960s Guinea is archaic city with its most impressive foreigner and do not dare to invite him witnessing at least some changes that buildings dating back to the colonial to their houses, as is frequently done the president himself has spearheaded, era, a city that has grown in poverty elsewhere in West Africa. Such at- many of his foreign admirers refuse to from 100,000 inhabitants to more than titudes are symptomatic of a long, rep- accept that he has changed. Indeed, 500,000 in 20 years. These inhabitants, ressive rule. they continue to defend his harsh rule in who are of unusual warmth, appear in However, it is difficult to deny that Conakry as warranted under the cir- the streets to be without great en- some change has taken place in Guinea. cumstances of struggling against plot- thusiasm and motivation because of the First, at the level of the leadership, one ters. They seek to uphold his image lack of meaningful employment. cannot help observing the toll which the untarnished as an "ami-imperialist Physically, Conakry has deteriorated. past 20 years have taken on the presi- theoretician." To worsen the situation, an air of suspi- dent himself. Although we all change For several understandable reasons, cion and uneasiness permeates the with time, many people who came in the admirers of President Toure often whole atmosphere. As a recent traveler great number to listen to President refuse to acknowledge that he can make put it, "What is bad in Conakry is not Toure at Howard University in July overtures to the West and renounce the people but rather the fact that the 1980 were amazed at his lack of some of his "revolutionary" stands tor higher up you go in the social ladder the exuberance compared with 1958, when the sake of accommodation with the outside world. To some degree, one may argue that many things have not changed in Guinea. As it has become GUINEA easier to visit Conakry, we have learned that Guinea is still a beautiful land with its fascinating physical features, abun- dant natural resources, and harmonious human mixture. Visitors also speak of the charm of Conakry — its marvelous insular site, its greenery of giant coconut trees swaying in the breeze along the coast — in short, its natural

Dr. Lansine Kaba from Guinea is a Distinguished Teacher Award recipient and professor of history at the Univer- sity of Minnesota, Minneapolis. He also received the Melville Herskovits Award for excellent scholarship from the African Studies Association in 1975. Dr. Kaba has published many works on African history, politics, and Islam.

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 53 he made his first visit to the United conflict (December 1974-March 1975). outlook of the time of independence. States and charmed his audience. His Under President Toure's auspices, the These major difficulties in general, and face has hollowed, his gait has grown heads of state of Mali and Upper Volta food shortages in particular, culmi- heavier, creases have invaded his face, signed a permanent peace agreement in nated in mass protests led mostly by and even his fiery eloquence has dwin- Conakry in July, 1975. The involve- women across the country. The apex of dled. To explain this metamorphosis ment in this peace effort gave to Toure the demonstrations occurred in Con- requires an understanding of the con- the opportunity to travel outside Guinea akry in August 1977. Although the text in which the president evolved for the first time in many years and to militia and the police were able to rees- during the last 20 years. Amnesty In- have a firsthand appreciation of how the tablish orde r after killing many demon- ternational and many critics have ex- world was changing. Accustomed to strators, these events shook the gov- plained the change in the president as scarcity, the Guineans in Bamako or ernment because women have been in- the effect of change from a beloved, Ouagadougou wondered at bountiful strumental in the success of Toure*s charismatic young leader, symbol of markets, luxury shops, and factories Parti democratique de Guinee (PDG). his nation's optimism, to a middle- that were fully operative. A question This may explain why in 1978 the aged, notorious tyrant and vindictive that beleaguered their minds and that president reappeared forcefully on the perpetrator of horrible crimes living in a President Toure, their theoretician, had African political scene with a "new cocoon of suspicion, secrecy, and iso- to answer was how to explain their image" to create confidence among lation. Yet suddenly President Toure backwardness given that "'their politi- potential investors. has been making a spectacular come- cal options were correct." Guinea had Owing mainly to the efforts of the back on the international political been left behind economically, and a UN Secretary General Kurt Waldheim scene, trying to carve for himself the reassessment of the situation was in and his representative, the German- image of a sage committed to regional order. More than ever, greater attention bom French diplomat Andre Lewin, peace and unity, brotherhood among had to be given to economic develop- contacts were reestablished between Muslim states, and friendly relations ment and the happiness of the people, Guinea and West Germany and France, with the West. How is one to explain as was dramatized by events that fol- two countries with which President this change, and what did it entail? lowed. The year 1977 saw growing Toure had broken diplomatic relations. popular discontent in all the regions (Mr. Lewin left the services of the UN over economic policy and the shortage to become French ambassador in Con- TOURE'S NEW DIPLOMACY of food. Starvation was threatening, as akry in 1976.) Europeans imprisoned in A summary of the main events that workers with very low incomes could Conakry for "participation in plots to signaled a change in Conakry may be not find necessities in the government overthrow the regime" were released in useful. Everything started slowly in stores or afford them in the black mar- order to pave the way to an atmosphere 1975, when Guinea participated in a ket. The country had a crippling foreign conducive to normal relations. Indeed, special mediation commission that tried debt. In short, the economic perfor- a Franco-Guinean communique issued to settle the Mali-Upper Volta border mance had not matched the promising on July 14, 1976, announced the inten- tion of the iwo governments to bury the past and finally culminated in full dip- lomatic relations in February 1976. Obviously it is difficult to have excel- lent relations with France without de- tente with the Ivory Coast and Senegal, two neighboring countries often maligned by President Toure and most consistent in their pro-French attitudes. Hence the reconciliation without pre- conditions — signed between Presi- dents Toure, Houphouet-Boigny, and Leopold S. Senghor on March 18, 1978, under the auspices of the late President William Tolbert of Liberia — represented a major breakthrough. (In the past, President Toure had required that Guineans living in Senegal and the Ivory Coast and opposed to his gov- ernment be arrested and sent to Con- akry as a condition of reconciliation.) The Guinean organ Horoya hailed this President Sekou Toure (right) with Ivory Coast's Houphouet-Boigny (center) and Senegal's Senghor after 1978 reconciliation event as the "spirit of Monrovia," the

54 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 French President Giscard's visit to Guinea in 1978 was the apogee of Toure's new diplomacy

cornerstone of Tourers new diplomacy In terms of relation among African and ambassador to the European Eco- of brotherhood and moderation. Imme- states. President Toure's participation nomic Council in Brussels, Nfaly San- diately thereafter. President Toure in the mediation commission to settle gare, would have been elected director traveled frantically throughout Africa the Western Sahara crisis and to of that influential institution in June and the Middle East in his quest for strengthen the OAU thrust him into the 1980 except for the opposition of brotherly relations and economic coop- limelight. He was among the "sages" Nigeria and Algeria, two main share- eration. From April to October. 1978, designated by the OAU to seek an ac- holders. In other words. President he jetted to 16 countries, including ceptable solution to the conflict be- Toure is being taken by his peers, once Libya. Saudi Arabia. Kuwait. Qatar. tween Morocco and Algeria. Although again, as a serious leader. This repre- Bahrein, and Nigeria — all rich, oil- the war is still going on in the Sahara. sents an undeniable change. producing states. Later he made trium- the commission's recommendation of phant visits to Dakar and Abidjan, an immediate cease-fire and auto- At the same time in Guinea itself, where he entrusted President determination was praised as an al- there have been many notable signs of Houphouet-Boigny with his son's edu- ternative to the division of the country. transformation. More political prison- cation. He also attended his first OAU President Toure was credited for trying ers were released in the last two years, summit in II years in Khartoum, to organize a meeting between King thereby enabling President Toure to preaching moderation, which, in the Hasan 11 of Morocco and President boast that his "jails are now empty," a view of some, was a complete about- Chadli of Algeria at the OAU summit in statement difficult to prove. Fur- face of his previous position. After- July, 1979. E\en JeuneAfrique, which thermore. Guinean borders are now ward, the liberation of the bishop of so far has been consistent in its critique open; and contrary to an earlier article Conakry and other prisoners facilitated of Sekou Toure, hailed him as a by this author, obtaining a passport has his visit to the United States in July peacemaker and, with General become less difficult. Therefore, Gui- 1980. However, the apogee of this new Obasanjo of Nigeria, as "the superstar neans in greater numbers travel diplomacy was the official visit by of the summit of Monrovia" (Jeune throughout the world for business or President Valery Giscard d'Estaing on Afrique, August 1, 1979). Guinea has personal reasons; and goods, although December 12. 1978, the first French been readmitted to the Organization of sold at exorbitant prices, are now more president to touch Guinean soil since the River Senegal Valley and has available owing mostly to private Afri- 1958. when Sekou Toure's argument shown greater interest in the multina- can entrepreneurs. The resumption of against the project of the Franco- tional African Bank of Development the exploitation of alluvial gold in the African community infuriated General located in Abidjan. As a matter of fact, Niger-Tinkisso River Valley and de Gaulle. the former Guinean minister of banking diamond mining in the southeastern re-

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 55 Kouyatc used to admonish, Sekou Toure is a dangerous leader with whom one should play very cautiously. After making his PDG a monolithic institu- tion superior to all organs of govern- ment, Toure has become the embodi- ment of the nation as general secretary and responsible supreme de la revolu- tion, the strategist upon whom all au- thority in the country depends. Not sur- prisingly, this totalitarian system has resulted in an atmosphere detrimental to individual initiative and efficient managerial activities. Here lies the source of the economic crisis that has paralyzed Guinea since the early 1960s and has led to many unnecessary ar- rests. Conakry: In 1977, women led mass protests against food shortages Concurrently, intense politicization and the practice of arbitrary arrests and gion have alleviated to some degree the have signaled a higher degree of kangaroo courts as reported by Am- scarcity of funds to be used by traders. liberalization of the Guinean economy nesty International have crippled the Certainly the government's new policy and polity. For it appears that for many administration of the country. Scores of of paying diamond sellers coming from people lsmael was the symbol of ineffi- competent officials, well-trained man- the mines in both Guinean and foreign cient economic planning and above all agers and officers, and able business- currency may have paid off so far. It has was one of the leading figures involved men, intellectuals, and diplomats have reduced smuggling and has helped to in the torture o\' political prisoners. been sent to prisons, torture, or death. increase sales to Belgian buyers. Con- Guineans thought that the Eleventh For example, two former ambassadors currently with this "liberalization," Congress, to be held in October 1978, to the Uniied States, the very able President Toure has tried to lure foreign would mean a reassessment of the Karim Bangoura and Fadiala Keita; a capitalists to invest in the exploitation whole system because President Toure former permanent representative to the of the abundant resources of his country had stated that "everything will be up UN, Koyah Achkar Marof; the brilliant and in the building of modern infras- for discussion, including the constitu- former general secretary of the OALJ, tructures. The years 1978 and 1979 saw tion itself." Yet lsmael was reinstated Diallo Telli; the gifted businessmen literally a rush by foreign businessmen, as a member of the politburo and Sekou Diane. Mohammed "Petit" contractors, and even adventurers to minister of mines, and the congress Toure, and Bayidi Gueye, to name only take advantage of this new frontier. For rubber-stamped old principles. Thus, a few, have all disappeared. From I960 example, the Guinean government and the promises of deep structural changes to 1977, mass arrests were common in the American Quintad Group Interna- did not materialize, and Guinea re- Guinea. Despite the president's decla- tional created Guinea Diamonds Inter- mains essentially the same with a new ration that his jails are now empty, the national, an association for diamond facade. families of these able men and of exploration and exploitation and for the thousands of prisoners have no news of training of Guinean staff in a diamond- THE CONTINUITY OF THE their imprisoned relatives. Needless to cutting school in Conakry. However, GLINEAN SYSTEM say, this situation represents a major up to this date, major transnational* Stability is one of the chief charac- calamity and a serious internal "brain have yet to make a serious commitment teristics of President Toure's rule. In drain" from which the country has yet to the development of heavy industries terms of political longevity, he is the to recover, despite the attempt by the in Guinea, and rich Arab states are dean of African heads of state. Since government to create a corps of well- hesitant to initiate such investment on 1958, he and his party have had a firm trained and educated cadres. But the their own. hold on Guinea despite some major po- lack of sufficient care, of a sense of litical and economic turmoil. His po- purpose and of well-kept research Many observers thought that the litical success has depended mainly on facilities has hindered the work of this ouster of the president's brother lsmael his organizational ability, his talents as new elite. For example, it has been re- Toure, the longtime minister of eco- a theoretician and orator, his sagacity, ported that Guinea cannot keep a brew- nomic development, from the politburo and his detemiination to deal with the ery operating for a year and has one of and the government in April 1979 and opposition — real or imagined — the largest collections of rusty machin- the Eleventh Congress of the PDG, swiftly and mercilessly. As the late, ery. Indeed, as a team sent by the World the first to be held since 1973, would great Guinean epic singer Sory Kandia Health Organization found, Guinean

56 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 laboratories lack even elementary growing friction with the Soviet Union may be at variance with Toure's tradi- equipment. This bankruptcy is camou- over the price of bauxite and other tion of staunch autonomy. Therefore, flaged by impeccable muss mobiliza- bilateral issues and by his rapproche- only a meaningful international coop- tion and rallies as well as socialist jar- ment with Morocco at the expense of eration including Western and Japanese gon, which have led to the perpetuation Algeria. He has made enemies of capitalists and Arab investors may pro- of the cult ot Toure's personality. former friends without gaining new vide the funds necessary for Guinean From outward appearances. Presi- ones to fill the vacuum. His reputation development. dent Toure is the living national hero of being whimsical and quick tempered Here the role of the U.S. may be for Guineans. He supposedly knows is another liability. On the other hand, crucial in light of the guaranteed loans everything; and everything stems from his spectacular overtures have created that the State Department extends to him and passes through him. He sets the constraints on his regime without tan- friendly countries, as was the case in standards. This is how the cult of per- gible material gains thus far. For exam- 1963 with the $400 million loan Guinea sonality operates. However, it may be ple, no influential Guinean has yet re- received to develop her bauxite indus- simplistic, if not erroneous, to reduce turned from exile. Yet Toure appears to try. In this context, African states in the issue of autocracy to the peculiar be following his new posture, as dem- general and Guinea in particular have character of one single man, however onstrated by his reaction when two reason to worry about the policy of the important his historical role may be. hand grenades were tossed at him in the Reagan administration. Reagan's sup- Unlike many people who make Toure theater in Conakry on May 15. 1980. port of white-ruled South Africa and and his family solely responsible for (Some thought that this was the work of unconditional opposition to Angola and Guinea's misfortune. I think that the the Guinean police to justify new ar- the liberation struggle will alienate the political and cultural apparatus that the rests. But the Front patriotique de OAU, Nigeria, Guinea, and other states president and others have created has Guinee claimed responsibility for the fully committed to black rule in south- played a definite role in promoting to- attack in a memorandum issued by the em Africa. Moreover, the Reagan ad- talitarianism. It is the party and its ma- Collect!/ de I'opposition guineenne on ministration, by demanding total loy- chinery that have built the image of a May 7, 1980. The opposition groups alty to the West from peripheral states, strong hero and continue to support it. include the Regroupement des Gui- tends to narrow the options of leaders In other words, Toure should be viewed neens a I'etranger [RGE], the Organi- like President Toure. The new U.S. as the top of a pyramid with a large base sation unifiee pour la liberation de la president seems to overlook the many consisting of many like-minded people Guinee |OULG| and several others.) In facets of nationalism in Third World who enjoy power and abhor dissent. December 1980, Radio Conakry an- countries and the way some leftist prin- These small tyrants are the main agents nounced the discovery of a new plot. ciples are essential components of that of the cult of personality, those without Insofar as we know, in both cases there ideology. His policies, if enacted, will whom the system could not have en- were no mass arrests; or at least no have grave consequences on African- dured and whom the president is very public censure ensued, as had been the American relations. The blunt distinc- adept at manipulating in order to per- tradition. This shows that perhaps the tion General Haig has drawn between petuate his rule. The Eleventh Congress president is concerned about outside totalitarian states (characterized by of the PDG has not changed that power criticism that may jeopardize further one-party state and leftist orientation) relationship. In sum, the Guinean re- economic assistance. and authoritarian regimes (led by mili- gime has not drastically changed. Indeed, the reconciliation with tary juntas but not necessarily opposed Toure*s new diplomacy is mostly an France raised great expectations in to a Western type of democracy) will exercise in public relations The open- Conakry. The issue is whether France make it difficult for the United States to ing of Guinea to Westerners means that can or will help Guinea to pull out of her collaborate with Guinea and most Afri- he has become aware of the limitations 20 years of stagnation. Realistically, can states. Faced with this dilemma, ot" his muddled rhetoric of revolution the projects for energy and industrial President Toure. who is proud of his and socialism. He is now eager to catch development in Guinea are too large for leftist tradition and his long relationship up with the Ivory Coast and Senegal to one single country to finance. Fur- with Fidel Castro, must try to exploit insure a long-lasting image of himself thermore, the French government may the potential rift between Washington as the liberator and lather of modern be reluctant to make Sekou Toure's and its European allies for whom so- Guinea. Thus, economic development Guinea a privileged partner at the ex- cialism is not synonymous with Soviet has become imperative after 20 years of pense of old and trusted friends like the communism. However, the worldwide stagnation, because Guinea, although Ivory Coast and Senegal. Some observ- economic crisis makes it difficult for very poor, is potentially rich. The ers have suggested that Guinea should Toure to receive major awards from problem is whether Ihe West or the enter the French monetary zone in order Europe for his new diplomacy. In con- Arab states will trust Toure. to have readily available funds to pay clusion, one must wait to see substan- tial economic improvement in Guinea President Toure is in a bind. On the her foreign trade partners. But this will under the PDG and a genuine liberation one hand, his old allies lend to think require a substantial reorganization of from 23 years of totalitarian rule before that he has betrayed the cause of the Guinean banking as well as an accom- one may speak of genuine change. • revolution as demonstrated by his modation with the Bank of France that

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 57 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT

New Directions for the 1980s

BY GUY ARNOLD

or the first time since the indepen- more perceptive leaders began the de- nental basis, while the population in- F dence era began, Africa talked se- cade with a strong sense that more creases by nearly 3% a year, food pro- riously at the special meetings of 1979 needs to be done by Africa itself and duction is only going up by 2%. and I980 about its collective economy that less emphasis should be given to This galaxy of problems indicates the and ways in which the continent might demands for more aid or other eco- difficulties Africa faces. The continent improve its performance. The pros- nomic assistance from the West. is overwhelmingly dependent upon ex- pects are hardly encouraging: continu- Africa is the world's least-developed ports of commodities — either minerals ing world recession, the heavy cost of continent: it is fragmented, with poor, or foodstuffs — while its manufactur- imported oil, inflation imported from almost nonexistent communications ing base remains minuscule. One of its the advanced economies, and savage between member states. It contains 21 few present advantages (which could cutbacks in aid, most significantly by of the world's 45 least-developed easily turn sour) is its possession of the new Reagan administration. countries. Yet it possesses huge mate- 30% of the world's total known mineral For 20 years, from I960 to I980. rial resources. The question for the resources (excluding oil). Yet the African countries have approached de- 1980s, therefore, is how to harness exploitation of these often presents se- velopment along a well-worn path: these resources in such a way that the rious doubts as to what benefits Africa seeking aid, developing import sub- continent becomes less rather than itself derives from them. stitution industries, exporting bulk raw more dependent. That will not be easy. The example of Mauritania is in- materials and commodities, and at- Africa's gross national product structive. In order to open up new iron tempting political pressures in the (GNP) comes to only 2.7% of the world ore deposits at Guelb during the mid- United States or elsewhere to demand a total, and in 1980 its average percapita 1970s. Mauritania had to seek $500 greater say in an economic system income was $530 — the world's low- million in capital. It obtained the which Africa neither does nor can con- est. The population of Africa was 472 money from Arab sources ($290 mil- trol. It was the realization in 1979 that million in 1980, increasing at the rate of lion), the World Bank, the European even collectively Africa was largely 2.9% a year, and is expected to reach Investment Bank (EIB), the African peripheral to the Western economic 832 million by the year 2000. Infant Development Bank (ADB), France, system, which led to some of the in- mortality is 140 per 1,000; 45% of the and Japan, but the price it had to pay depth thinking that occurred at that population is under age 15; only 3% was very high. Thus, in 1974 debt ser- time. What Africa may achieve in the reach 64 years; life expectancy is 49; vicing cost Mauritania 3.8% of foreign 1980s remains to be seen. At least its and the urban population now accounts earnings: four years later, when the fi- for 24% of the total. Less than 5% of nances for the new ore developments Africa's rural people have access to had been arranged, debt servicing was piped water and 70 million are perma- taking 20% of foreign earnings; the na- Guy Arnold, a former director of the Af- nently undernourished. Unemployment tional debt had risen to $805 million, rica Bureau of London, has been writ- affects 45% of the active population equivalent to one and a half times the ing on African affairs for the past 20 and a high proportion of the world's GNP; 49% of the state mineral pros- years. He is a British free-lance writer 800 million poorest are found in Africa. pecting enterprise (SNIM) was then and lecturer specializing in Third World and especially African affairs. His most The continent has the world's largest owned by Arab financial interests; and recent book was Aid in Africa, pub- number of refugees. The rapid increase effective control of the mining was no lished by Kogan Page, 1980. of the urban population is not being longer in Mauritanian hands. It is matched by a comparable increase of legitimate to ask how much real benefit available food supplies. On a conti- will have accrued to Mauritania in 10

58 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 years time when the ore has been ble of doing given the right induce- A possible pointer to the right ap- extracted. ments. proach may be the findings of a recent Perhaps nothing illustrates the di- Seventy percent of African revenue study in Nigeria by Edeniyi Osuntogun lemma of African development better is derived from the export of primary of the University of Ife. He found that than agriculture. Seventy percent of the products and a high proportion of these only 39% of credits to farmers were people on the continent remain rural are food commodities. There have been actually spent on their farming: the bal- based yet again and again agriculture a few success stories in agriculture: ance went to cover their social service receives insufficient priority in devel- Kenya, Ivory Coast, and Malawi, but needs; that is, the education of their opment plans. By the year 2000 the all too often they are offset by the dis- children, health, housing, durable world population will have passed the 6 mal and growing line of failures. The goods. This use of the money reflected billion mark and demands for food will 1970s witnessed a great deal of rhetoric the lack of such amenities or their in- have nearly doubled. Africa ought to be in terms of "back to the land" but very adequacy in the rural areas. able to feed itself and have a sizable little real achievement. In Nigeria, Op- The lessons are obvious enough: to surplus of basic foodstuffs (as opposed eration Feed the Nation under Obasanjo make agriculture a success it needs to commodities such as coffee) for ex- failed; in Ghana, Operation Feed Your- more than extension services. If the port. Yet almost all the agricultural self failed; in Zambia, Rural Recon- young are to be attracted to stay in the patterns of recent years have been in the struction failed. What is needed (and rural areas then adequate social wrong direction. In I960 Africa was was pointed out at Monrovia in 1979 amenities must be created there to make virtually food self-sufficient; by and Lagos in 1980) is a policy that in- it worthwhile or the urban drift will 1972-74 it produced 90% of its re- volves youth in agriculture (currently continue. quirements and on present trends could an occupation of older workers) and A growing awareness of these prob- be producing only 81% by 1985 and halts the rural-urban drift. lems informed the group which met to 65% (two-thirds) by 2000. A vital Africa's agricultural failures need conduct a symposium in Monrovia in question therefore is how it can reverse not take place. Malawi has amply dem- February 1979 in preparation for the this obstinate agricultural decline. onstrated how to make agriculture pay. sixteenth Organization of African Grain imports for the continent, for By 1979, for example, agriculture ac- Unity (OAU) heads of state meeting to example, came to 11 million tons in counted for 43% of Malawi's gross beheld in Monrovia later that year. The 1978 and are expected to be as high as domestic product and its agricultural symposium produced a document en- 15 million in 1985. To change an ag- exports were worth $139 million out of titled "What Kind of Africa by the Year ricultural approach that has seen a a total of $148 million, while a high 2000?" which examined the failures of steady erosion of the capacity of far- proportion of its peasant farmers had by the period from 1960 to 1979 and mers to produce enough is essential: it then been turned into cash crop far- charted possible paths for the 1980s and has to be done first at the national level. mers. The Nigerian Fourth Plan pub- beyond. In an important passage the Only then does it make sense to talk of lished in January 1981 allocates 13% of report argued: regional or continental food self- resources to the agricultural sector and sufficiency. Over the last 10 years an The prime objective of development has aims to generate a 4% agricultural to be the creation of a material and cul- increasing number of African countries growth rate during the plan period. tural environment thai is conducive lo have become net food importers. The Food and Agriculture Organiza- tion's per capita food production index for Africa, which stood at 100 in 1970, was down to 93 by 1978. At the same time, the FAO index for export volume of agricultural products, which was 104 in 1970, was down to 84 by 1978; and the import index, which stood at 101 in 1970, had almost doubled to 194 by 1978. Per capita food production in Africa decreased by 1% a year through the 1970s. Other factors are at work. There is increasing evidence, for example, that the ready availability of World Food Program (WFP) aid un- dermines farming in West Africa to in- duce a mentality (with the Sahel disas- ter in mind) that shortages can be solved by appeals to the WFP rather than by making sure farmers produce enough Africa's population increases by three percent a year, but food production by food — which they are perfectly capa- only two percent

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 59 The first, most immediate objective was the target for 1980-85 to improve the general food situation and to lay the foundations for self-sufficiency in cereals, livestock, and fish. If this new approach to development is to have a chance there will have to be a far more urgent sense of African unity than exists at present. Politicans must drop the rhetoric of "back to the land" and instead produce plans that they can im- plement. Much is likely to depend upon the example set by one or two key countries, and in this respect two of the most important are Nigeria and Zim- babwe since both have the resources, the infrastructure, and the special posi- tion in their parts of the continent upon which will hinge other action.

Analysis of what is wrong represents Mali rice seed farm: "Agriculture receives insufficient priority in development a start. A cursory examination of the plans" problems the continent will face in 1981 reveals how difficult action may self-fulfillment and creative participa- sion there took place one of the best prove to be: growing danger in southern tion. This implies a number of breaks economic debates the OAU had ever Africa as the republic appears ever with the pasl: a break with a number of more ready to make military strikes concepts and habits, starting with exces- witnessed. The result was the proposal sive mimicry in every field; a break with to hold a special OAU economic sum- against its neighbors; the explosive the obsessive accumulation of material mit at Lagos early in 1980. This summit situation in the Sahara with the future of and financial possessions and wilh the met in April 1980 and was the first King Hassan increasingly dependent persistent confusion of growth with de- OAU attempt to find a continental ap- upon what he does — or does not do — velopment, which prevents the promo- in relation to the Polisario; the trouhled tion of a policy aimed at a better dis- proach to economic problems. Top em- tribution of income for the sake of a phasis was placed upon the need for a Horn with its Cuban and Russian in- balanced and harmonious endogenous return to continental agricultural self- volvement and Nimeiry's sudden offer development; a break with the evil and sufficiency as the basis for other devel- of base facilities to the United States; deceitful slogans and paper-thin the volatile policies of Libya's Qad- achievements in favor of a courageous opments. It was also accepted that in- attempt to tackle the embarrassing facts dustries should be based upon internal dafy; and the constant economic crisis of life so as to be able to start today to African resources (of both people and in Zaire. Mention of these alone high- prepare for the future. materials) so as to reduce the need to lights how hard any agreed continental turn outside the continent which had economic policy is likely to be. The most important aims set for Af- been so marked a feature of the 1960s A European Community (EC) paper, rica by the year 2000 were: the estab- and 1970s. "The European Community and the lishment of a continental common mar- As President Nyerere told the Lagos Third World," argues: "The drive to ket; the free movement of people and summit, they "should aim to build independence was essentially a move- goods on the continent; and to make upon existing institutions." The sum- ment for political emancipation" and people more aware of their interdepen- mit set a target for Africa of "collec- did not change economic relations so dence. The symposium looked criti- tive, self-reliant, and self-sustaining that "seen through the eyes of industri- cally at the African assumption that its development'' with precise aims alized countries, the Third World re- problems will be solved if enough tech- spelled out, such as: a return to food mains what it was during preceding de- nology is transferred to the continent self-sufficiency; the improvement of cades.: a supplier of raw materials such from outside. The symposium "pro- transport and communications links so as mineral ores and agricultural pro- posed that the degree of a country's as to encourage horizontal trade links; duce." That indeed sums up how the dependence for its food imports should and the establishment of an African EC regards Africa today. It is that re- henceforth be considered as one of the monetary fund. Again to quote Nye- lationship which Africa would break, most significant indications of its level rere: "It is absurd that Africa should be but when the extent of the continent's of development." importing food." Many of the points dependence upon aid (less for growth The report of this symposium was made at Lagos were unexceptionable; than for survival) is taken into account presented to the OAU summit later in the summit adopted a Plan of Action for and when that is coupled with the de- the year at Monrovia and on that occa- the 1980s. bilitating effects of debt with countries

60 AFRICA REPORT* May-June 1981 such as Zaire or Sudan using 20%, capacity, 20% of traded oil, and pro- munity collapsed but Kenya and Tan- 30%, and sometimes 40% of their duces 70% of cocoa, 50% of palm pro- zania have had their common border foreign earnings simply to service their duce, and 33%> of coffee. These con- closed for four years. debts, it becomes clear just how little stitute its bargaining strengths but also, The most immediately encouraging room the continent as a whole or its ironically, its weaknesses since, too regional development is the Southern individual members in fact possess in often, the easiest temptation is simply Africa Committee for Development which they may maneuver and bring to be a commodity producer and hope Cooperation that has emerged out of about real changes — to their advan- the revenues from the one or two base Zimbabwean independence. The nine tage. metals or foodstuffs will solve all other states on the periphery of South Africa At the end of the 1960s the Pearson development problems. — Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Report was hailed as a courageous Africa also suffers from the aid de- Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, analysis of rich/poor relations; its target pendence attitude that has grown up in Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe — of 0.7% of GNP as aid, however, most of the continent over the last 20 met in Lusaka in April 1980 and again was derided in some liberal quarters as years. Africa can make out a powerful in Maputo in November 1980 to draw far too modest, yet 10 years later only case for receiving more aid; it is only up plans for regional cooperation and to three or four countries — mainly Scan- one step further to argue that without lessen their dependence upon South dinavian — had ever reached or passed aid it cannot solve its problems and Africa. They have gotten off to a good that target. Now we have had the therefore that the responsibility lies start, but whether the practical difficul- Brand! Repori, Looking at the 1980s with aid donors instead of inside Af- ties of welding together their diverse and 1990s it calls for top priority to be rica. interests and overcoming their prob- given to the poorest; that hunger should Similarly much of Africa's industry lems produces more than generaliza- be abolished; that earnings from com- is controlled by non-Africans: thus an tions remains to be seen. modities should be strengthened while estimated 83% of Zimbabwe's mining A final constraint upon Africa con- the producing countries (a high propor- and other industries at independence cerns the direction of trade. A min- tion in Africa) should be helped to were reckoned to be controlled by imum of Africa's trade is at present process more themselves; that the transnationals from outside the coun- intracontinental: for the second half of North should stop protecting its indus- try. How much real room to maneuver the 1970s it stood at less than 5%. The tries against the South; that the transna- does this allow Mugabe, unless he direction at present is: European Com- tional should share more of their tech- nationalizes? And if he does munity, 45-50%; North America, 28%; nology; and that the monetary system nationalize, what happens then? Fi- socialist countries, 11%. As the Lagos should be reformed. The report also nally, in this context (see Mauritania summit noted, there is a great deal of calls for increased aid and for more above) what is left when the minerals trade that could be inter-African and money to be made available for bor- have been extracted? there should be no need half the time to rowing. These propositions are no more To date, African efforts at industri- go outside the continent. In part it is a than the old expedients dressed up for alization have been limited: not through question of inherited patterns, and just another decade. It was to get out of the any lack of desire but because of the as it is absurd — to quote Nyerere — for Westem-aid dependency trap that Af- inhibitions of manpower skills, tech- Africa to import food, so also is it ab- rica 2000 called for new African initia- nology, available markets, and costs in surd for it to import a good many man- tives. Arguments for huge cash trans- the face of Western industrial imports. ufactured goods (at great cost in foreign fers can too easily turn into arguments Though Nigeria is now developing an exchange) when at least a proportion of for continuing indebtedness and depen- industrial base and though Zimbabwe these can be provided from within the dence upon a monetary system that Af- has a substantial industrial infrastruc- continent itself. rica cannot hope to control. Brandt also ture, they are exceptions. By the year In summary, the problems appear in- argues for greater power-sharing in the 2000, on present trends Africa will still creasingly to be understood. The solu- World Bank. There is little prospect — only account for 2% of total world in- tions demand the political determina- certainly not with hard-line administra- dustrial output. tion to bypass the present easy options. tions in both Washington and London The special summit at Lagos called Much must depend upon two or three — that any of these very modest pro- upon Africa to build on existing institu- anchor countries with already well- posals have much chance. All the more tions and emphasized the importance of developed economies or special influ- reason, then, for Africa to take new regional developments. Here there are ence. Nigeria has the oil power and is initiatives now. several existing or newly created re- rapidly industrializing; Zimbabwe has Africa's strength lies in its posses- gional groupings but past experience the infrastructure and could well be- sion of so many minerals — an esti- forces caution. ECOWAS in West Af- come the cornerstone of SADEK. mated 30% of known resources apart rica has made some progress but, over- Whether Africa takes the advice of the from oil — including 97% of chrome, whelmingly, depends upon its giant, Lagos summit and stops the process of 85% of platinum, 64% of manganese, Nigeria, and that at once raises all the excessive "mimicry," turning instead 13% of copper, and 75% of cobalt. The fears and jealousies of the smaller to its own resources, will provide the continent also possesses an estimated members that it will try to dominate. In most challenging question for the con- 20%' of the world'* hydroelectric East Africa not only has the old com- tinent in the 1980s. •

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 61 ZIMBABWE

The First Year

BY GWENDOLEN M. CARTER

ZIMBABWE zoo

LUSAKA® 1 _ ZambSSLiL. Zambia j^^^^^^^ \

SALISBURY

n New Year's Day, 1981, Robert form one (the first year of secondary O Mugabe, prime minister of Zim- school) from 20,000 to 90.000. babwe, called for the consolidation of Botswana] The new policy was a major affirma- the People's Power, to which he had tion of the regime's goal of equality, dedicated the previous year. The year but it placed a heavy strain on existing Mozambiqu e 1980 had seen the achievement of po- ~^ '"South "\ resources of classrooms and particu- litical independence and the establish- Africa \ larly of teachers, many of whom had ment of a working system of demo- left their posts during the war to join the cratic government. Moreover, claimed expanding commercial sector. Tem- Mugabe, it had provided "a single na- the year 1981 in his New Year's speech: porarily, teachers are being recruited tionality that claimed precedence over working for economic independence from Australia and the United King- the heterogeneity of our racial, re- and furthering the country's social and dom, particularly for form one. but in gional, tribal, and religious groups." It economic goals. By March 1981 the the meantime an average class both in was a brave statement in the light of the government had already instituted primary school and in form one num- Tekere incident and the 1980 guerilla some daring social programs. The most bers 40, to the concern of many fighting at Entumbane, and it was to be striking of its moves was to establish educators. proved overly optimistic by the bloody, universal free primary education and Disturbing to some whites has been factional ZIPRA-ZANLA outburst also to guarantee admission to secon- the government's pressure on parents early in February 1981. Yet, it seems dary school to all who qualified for it. associations to return to the state edu- likely that the response from all sides to Since previously only white children cational system the 49 fee-paying Mugabe's firm handling of that situa- had compulsory primary and secondary community schools — 41 at the prim- tion affirmed not only the existence of a education, the new opportunities vastly ary level and eight at the secondary greater degree of basic unity than had raised the number of children in school, level — that the Muzorewa transitional been foreseen but also a greater deter- increasing the total from 850,000 in regime had permitted them to buy and mination to reinforce it. 1980 to 1.3 million and more than run. Although the associations were Mugabe noted two special aims for quadrupling the number of pupils in pledged "not to turn away any children

62 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 solely on the ground of race." the fees what seems a disproportionate division required for running the schools meant of funds. The repeal of the Medical they have catered almost exclusively to Services Act in February 1981 has in white communities. Since the govern- fact opened the way for the future intro- ment has continued to pay the teachers' duction of a national health service bill. salaries and provide maintenance Since the white population is particu- grants, it is exerting pressure on the larly sensitive to any reduction in the associations by threatening to withdraw quality of health care, the government this support. The government, how- may be wary of moving too quickly to ever, approves of private boarding make radical changes, but at least some schools, like the renowned Peterhouse, seem inevitable. that get no state funds and are largely Another social measure targeted ini- church-supported, and it does so even tially to black urban dwellers seeks to though some of them still maintain expand home ownership, which the quotas of 15 percent and 10 percent for government sees as a major means of coloured and African students in their ensuring stability. Even by African yearly intakes. standards, Zimbabwe is not highly ur- One concern about the massive ex- banized, despite its relatively advanced pansion in secondary education is that it level of economic development. As late will arouse unwarranted expectations as 1978, the country had only 14 towns among the young people who will be with populations over 10,000 persons, seeking jobs a few years later. Despite and less than 17 percent of the African the 60,000 new openings said to have population (excluding refugees) lived resulted from the country's accelerated in them. This fact was due in large part recovery, which by February 1981 had to the tight rein that had been kept on Prime Minister Robert Mugabe's squatting, the limitations on the ac- aims for 1981 are economic provided a 7 percent sustained eco- independence and social and nomic growth in real terms — the first commodation of servants' families economic growth since 1974 — and had lead to a boom in under the African (Urban Areas) Ac- sales from local manufacturers, there commodation and Registration Act, were still unsatisfied work seekers. and the fact that only employed heads Partial answers for the future have been of families could even enter their names one-vote basis and reimbursed by their to include some vocational training in on the waiting list for the scarce hous- communities, have taken over the ad- the curriculum and to enlarge intakes in ing in the townships. The present gov- ministrative powers previously exer- technical institutes to help meet the ernment does not encourage African cised by chiefs. Oversight of local country's urgent need for skilled labor. migration to urban areas, but any fam- schools and clinics is to be among the (Africans were not previously eligible ily that has paid rent continuously for councils' duties, and chief executive for apprenticeship training unless they 30 years for a township house is now officers are being trained to assist them. posed as coloured.) The university is given it freehold. Moreover, after five To eliminate the roles played by the also expanding enrollment and is plan- years of occupancy, increasing per- district commissioners, who, in the ning to add at least a Faculty of Veteri- centage reductions in rent are provided view of Eddison Zvobgo, minister of nary Medicine. up to the full 30 years. local government and housing, had Free medical care was also instituted To introduce multiracial representa- been "petty dictators," a freeze was in 1981 for those earning below a cer- tion in urban areas and a measure of put on their activities and their enforced tain income, but the benefits of this self-government in rural ones, local idleness led 30 of the 60 to resign. "LThe measure have yet to be realized because administrative structures have been rest were constructively absorbed of the shortage of facilities and of radically changed. By the simple de- elsewhere," said Zvobgo, adding that drugs, particularly in rural areas. Al- vice of enlarging urban boundaries to "whites who remain in the civil service though the former division between include adjoining black townships and have an incredible sense of duty; they "open" (whites only) and "closed" incorporating the units as cities, black tend to over-volunteer and they work (blacks only) hospitals no longer mayors and a majority of black coun- well with blacks." exists,it should be noted that up to this cillors have come into office through- The spur is a real one. Writing in time the Andrew Fleming Hospital in out the country, except in Salisbury and October 1980 on his return to Salisbury Salisbury has received 50 percent of the Bulawayo, where the elections were as central Africa editor for the Cape state's health support. This hospital is postponed. Times after nearly two years in the superbly equipped {its boast is that it For rural government, districts have United States, Anthony Ryder reported can perform any operation except heart also been redesigned into larger units; that his most exciting experience was transplants), but it seems unlikely that a and their council members, who are "to watch the explosion of black abil- populist government will long continue ultimately to be elected on a one-man. ity, frustrated by artificial barriers

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 63 down the years, spread into every as- dislocations caused by the war and to minister of agriculture, is strongly sup- pect of life, from political to the social aid the government's stated long-range portive of government policy and is and cultural, and into commerce, min- objectives of "rapid economic growth, strengthening its ties with organizations ing and agriculture." It is commonly full employment, dynamic efficiency in representing small commercial and acknowledged, in fact, that the Zim- resource allocation, and an equitable communal (African) farmers. Both babwe cabinet (which is predominantly distribution of the ensuing benefits." white and African maize production drawn from the majority party, ZANU, The Zimbabwean economy has long expanded rapidly in 1981 in response to with minority ZAPU representation and been characterized by a basic duality the government's increased price sup- two white ministers holding important between its sophisticated modern sector port, leading to one of the largest har- portfolios, including agriculture) is the — dominated by the small, urbanized vests on record. (I saw maize grown most highly educated in Africa, some white minority centered around Salis- everywhere from outside squatters' of its members, like the prime minister bury and Bulawayo — and the exten- shacks to the gardens of cabinet minis- himself, having secured advanced de- sive, largely undeveloped African rural ters.) Tobacco and cotton are also grees while in prison. sector of the scattered Tribal Trust grown by both commercial and rural In the public service, it is openly Lands (TTLs). Although manufactur- farmers. stated government policy that black ing, stimulated by the constraints of But land redistribution is also essen- Zimbabweans have preference in sanctions, had slightly outstripped ag- tial, the document points out, both to promotions; and in some though not riculture by 1975 in its contribution to make agriculture viable in the badly many ministries, young black adminis- the country's GDP — 24.0 to 20.6 per- overcrowded African rural areas and to trators have been promoted over the cent — with mining the third most im- resettle the estimated 1.6 million per- heads of senior whites. Contracts of portant with 6.7 percent, all three are, sons displaced by the war. In carrying expatriate staff members are not being in fact, extensions of the urban- out this resettlement, the government renewed, and in some cases they are industrial structures. At the same time, aims to avoid extending the existing being given bonuses to resign; new this structure is linked to and dependent pattern of subsistence agriculture and to contracts for non-Zimbabweans do not upon cheap African labor for the com- see that those resettled can produce a include the kind of guarantees common mercial farms and the mines, and upon reasonable income on land that they can in other African-controlled states. Most the small, commonly better paid Afri- call their own. striking of all is the inflow of mature can proletariat of the townships, which The core of the government's basic and internationally well known black is playing an increasing role in the strategy is thus to develop both existing Zimbabweans who have left significant manufacturing and service sectors. and new rural areas so that they become posts that they were holding with dis- Introducing ZIMCORD at a news integral parts of the economy, with in- tinction abroad to return to serve their conference, Dr. Chidzero said the gov- comes equivalent to those of low-level country. ernment's long-range economic plans earnings in the urban areas. In this way, The new principal and vice- were designed to "establish an egalita- it hopes also to fulfill another objective, chancellor of the University of Zim- rian and socialist society under demo- which is to avoid or at least restrict what babwe, Professor Walter Kamba, for cratic conditions." Warning that the might otherwise be a large-scale mig- example, came directly from his post as immediate problems were of "a Mar- ration from impoverished rural areas dean of the faculty of law at the Univer- shall Plan type," the background in- into the urban townships. sity of Dundee to handle what is admit- formation for the conference asserted The Zimbabwe government itself has tedly a mammoth task of upgrading and that the government and people of Zim- been providing major quantities of aid expanding the university's faculties. babwe were determined to bring about to refugees and others displaced by the Thomas Mswaka, secretary of the "a more nonracially integrated society war in a program to which it is com- Ministry of Economic Planning, than had been possible so far anywhere mitted until April 1981. With substan- another distinguished returnee — as is else in the world." But the tenor of the tial help from the United Nations High its head. Dr. Bernard Chidzero — di- document itself is markedly pragmatic, Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) rected the preparation in a remarkably indicating changes that can be expected more than 7,500 tons of food have been short time of the basic document ZIM- only to modify the country's white- distributed through some 350 centers to CORD, and background information dominated capitalist structure. nearly half a million persons. OXFAM for the Zimbabwe Conference on Re- Accepting that the future of Zim- and the international Save the Children construction and Development (com- babwe lies in its agriculture and rural Fund have assisted with feeding ser- monly known as the Donors' Confer- development, the document maintains, vices and training for the mothers of the ence) held in Salisbury on March as Mugabe had from the start, that thousands of children who are suffering 23-27, 1981. Some 45 countries and a commercial agriculture would continue from serious malnutrition. number of international financial insti- "to play a vital role in the strategy." In addition, close to a million people, tutions were invited to this conference Indeed, the white Commercial Farm- including those in the feeding scheme, in the hope of securing the financial ers' Union, one of whose members, have been involved in self-help proj- underpinning needed to overcome the Senator Denis Robert Norman, is ects, using nearly a quarter of a million

64 AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 crop packs provided by the government abandoned by whites who have left the tive period, the appeal of farming has to enable them to restart their plots in country are being taken over by the been low. Only some 2,000 are pre- the Tribal Trust Lands that had suffered government, and it is buying other un- sently involved out of the planned so much during the war, not only from used land to the degree it can afford. 10,000. the fighting but also from the herding of But there is pressing need for external The large number of remaining some half a million people into the 230 funds to purchase the extensive acreage guerillas, a third now housed in tents hated "protected" villages. A further required and available for its long- and the rest in undercover barracks, problem that the TTLs have faced in range development plans. provide a serious economic drain recommencing normal farming opera- One problem besetting a national through their substantial R$100 tions is that at least a third of their cattle program of land resettlement and en- (U.S.$160) monthly wages (the newly (used for plowing) were lost during the richment results from the generally established minimum wage is R$70 a war owing to the cessation of dipping. poor soil in the TTLs in Matabeleland month with R$30 for farm work and Some white farmers adjacent to a compared to that in the predominantly household service). The outlay is jus- TTL have aided its farmers by plowing Shona areas. Cattle raising rather than tified by the government both as a re- their fields. Other rural settlements commercial farming is the preference in turn for the wartime service they have have organized community plowing, the former areas, which generally ex- rendered and as the basis for the new although usually with careful noting of perience only one good crop every three national army that is slowly being who is to receive the return from which years, whereas results are commonly trained by the British. The particular problem faced in this process is the difficulty of integrating former ZANLA and ZIPRA units into the same battalions. The foreign press, in particular, tends to stress the differ- ent ethnic backgrounds and presumed historic antagonism of the two groups, as well as the better equipment and what are termed the superior fighting aptitudes of the Ndebele. In fact, it was ZANLA that undertook most of the fighting, since it was centered along the Mozambique border and in the eastern part of the country, while ZIPRA, with a far more difficult terrain to invade in northeast Rhodesia, remained based throughout much of the war in Zambia. The two groups are also disproportion- ate in numbers, since the Shona- speakers comprise nearly four-fifths of the approximately seven million Afri- cans in Zimbabwe whereas Ndebele A striking social program is to guarantee admission to secondary school speakers amount to only 16 percent, to all qualified although the contiguous Shona-speak- ing Kalanga, to whom Joshua Nkomo belongs, commonly associate with pan of the crop. Although the govern- better in the eastern part of the country. them and voted solidly for his party in ment favors communal farming and This fact leads, in turn, to more atten- April 1980. grazing arrangements, there seems lit- tion to their needs,which is a possible When bloody factional violence tle enthusiasm as yet for them. For the cause for friction. broke out early in February 1981 be- moment, the most immediate needs of A still more serious problem has tween ZANLA and ZIPRA units in reconstruction are to develop clean been the lack of success so far of the three of the supposedly integrated bat- water in the TTLs (which, it is said, SEED program, Mugabe's favored ap- talions, the danger that it would spread would cut health-care costs in half) as proach to reducing the number of seemed acute, and many outside ob- well as passable roads, to repair and guerillas in the assembly points. Its servers warned of the possibility of civil extend electrification, to provide mar- administration is said to be poor; and war. The immediate cause of trouble keting arrangements for districts with- for teenagers, particularly from appears to have been a brawl over the out easy outlets to the main roads and, Z1PRA, who have known nothing ex- price of beer, rather than ethnic con- of course, to acquire more land. Farms cept the army during their most forma- flict, but subsequently fighting broke

AFRICA REPORT • May-June 1981 65 out between ZIPRA and ZANLA forces forces, and he is now starting to disarm During Zimbabwe's first year of in- encamped near each other in the the guerillas, beginning with the arms dependence, a series of far-reaching Bulawayo township of Entumbane handed in by ZIPRA forces as they left social programs have been introduced where it had occurred in the year be- their camp at Entumbane and adding to bring greater equality of oppor- fore. the heavy equipment, including Soviet tunities between whites and Africans. In this threatening situation, Mugabe tanks, that other ZiPRA forces still pos- The government has also contributed moved swiftly and forcefully. He sent sessed. In time, it is said, all the gueril- substantially from its own resources to the largely white-manned airforce, las will be disarmed unless they are on aid the rural population to integrate it- armed with bombs, to the scenes of active service. Although the units of the self into the working economy of the trouble and used the former Rhodesian 12th, 13th, and 41st battalions that en- country and has developed a well- African Rifles and an armored car unit gaged in the fighting have been dis- constructed plan to put before the inter- to tum back ZIPRA guerillas moving armed, no other penalties have been national community to carry these ef- towards Bulawayo from Essexvale and imposed. forts much further. the Gwaai base near the border, to Mugabe has now ordered an acceler- Whites have been generally satisfied which trainloads of equipment had been ation of the training and integration by the accepted role given the commer- sent from Zambia over the previous program conducted by the British, cial farmers, by an adequate safe- months. All the ZIPRA commanders which had already been speeded up to guarding of industry, and by the ac- remained loyal to the government and handle 3,000 men a month through the ceptance of the existing structure of the the Joint Command acted together to so-called super sausage machine, with mining industry except for an unwel- separate the combatants. Joshua Nkomo what the British report as better results. come proposal to market the minerals went to Bulawayo to help to calm the Officers are trained separately and through a government-appointed ZIPRA forces. When I asked Josiah selected by a joint committee of four board. The so-called takeover of the Chinamano, vice-president of ZAPU representing ZANLA, ZIPRA, the local press hus been less controversial (PF) and recently appointed minister of Rhodesian Front (RF), and the British. since a distinguished Media Board was transport (one of the most powerful of- Only after the ZANLA and ZIPRA in- appointed to provide its oversight. In fices in the cabinet because of its key tegration is completed will they be fact, much criticism might have been role in development) how the situation joined with the members of the former avoided had the appointment of the would develop, he said gravely, "Mr. Rhodesian forces. Many observers, and Media Board preceded the purchase ot Nkomo and I will do everything to the British themselves, feel that the the Argus stake in Zimbabwe's news- maintain unity." In fact, it was army should be much smaller, and thus papers. achieved. more highly organized, than Mugabe The worst ZIPRA-ZANLA outbreak Mugabe emerged from this trying plans, but so far he has remained ada- since independence has been success- test the undisputed military and politi- mant that they are needed in case of fully contained, although at a substan- cal leader of Zimbabwe. He is assured attacks across the border to destabilize tial loss of life caused by the guerillas, the loyally of the former Rhodesian his country. and efforts are being made to disarm them, and to speed up their integration into a genuine national army. The drain on the economy of supporting them re- mains but is accepted as the price of external security and. it may be, of helping to insulate the community from their presence. In sum, Mugabe has succeeded in promoting both social and economic change without seriously alienating the country's white minority, and he is clearly demonstrating his determina- tion not to permit any future ZIPRA- ZANLA discord to disrupt the lite of the country. New problems may arise, but he has assured a firm foundation from which to deal with them. It seems symbolic that it is at this time that the stone birds of Great Zimbabwe have been returned to the country after 90 years of exile and will soon be placed in the museum at the foot of its world- ZANLA members in training to join new Zimbabwe national army renowned ruins. •

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