PACIFIC CATASTROPHE RISK ASSESSMENT AND FINANCING INITIATIVE Public Disclosure Authorized

COOK ISLANDS Public Disclosure Authorized

SEPTEMBER 2011

COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: COOK ISLANDS The Cook Islands are expected to incur, on average, about 5 million USD per year in losses due to earthquakes and

Public Disclosure Authorized tropical cyclones. In the next 50 years, the Cook Islands have a 50% chance of experiencing a loss exceeding 75 million USD and casualties larger than 130 people, and a 10% chance of experiencing a loss exceeding 270 million USD and casualties larger than 200 people. Public Disclosure Authorized

BETTER RISK INFORMATION FOR SMARTER INVESTMENTS COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: COOK ISLANDS

POPULATION, BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE AND 166° W 164° W 162° W 160° W 158° W 0 1 2 4

S Aitu- 0 150 300 600 ° Arutanga CROPS EXPOSED TO NATURAL PERILS 8 taki Kilometers Kilometers

An extensive study has been conducted to assemble a S

° 0 comprehensive inventory of population and properties at 1 Atiu

S Mangaia risk. Properties include residential, commercial, public and ° 2

1 0 12 4 industrial buildings; infrastructure assets such as major ports, S 0 1 2 3 airports, power plants, bridges, and roads; and major crops, ° 4 1 Buildings such as coconut, palm oil, taro and many others. Avarua Rarotonga

S Residential Public

° 6

1 Commercial Other TABLE 1: Industrial S

°

Summary of Exposure in Cook Islands (2010) 8 1 Atiu General Information: Aitutaki S

° 0 Total Population: 19,800 2 Rarotonga Mangaia S GDP Per Capita (USD): 12,330 ° 2 2 Total GDP (million USD): 244.1 Cook Islands 0 2 4 8 Asset Counts: Figure 1: Building locations. Residential Buildings: 8,357 166° W 164° W 162° W 160° W 158° W 0 1 2 4

S Aitu- Public Buildings: 503 0 150 300 600 ° Arutanga 8 taki Kilometers Commercial, Industrial, and Other Buildings: 1,742 Kilometers S

° 0

All Buildings: 10,602 1 Atiu

S Mangaia

Hectares of Major Crops: 6,390 ° 2

1 012 4 Cost of Replacing Assets (million USD): S 0 1 2 3 °

Buildings: 1,296 4 1 Building Replacement Cost Density Infrastructure: 118 (million USD / km^2) Avarua Rarotonga S

° 0 - 0.5 1 - 5 15 - 20 6 Crops: 8 1 0.5 - 0.75 5 - 10 20 - 30 0.75 - 1.0 10 - 15 S

Total: 1,422 ° 8 1 Atiu Government Revenue and Expenditure: Aitutaki S

° 0 Total Government Revenue 2 Rarotonga Mangaia

(Million USD): 86.9 S

° 2 (% GDP): 35.6% 2 Cook Islands 0 2 4 8 Total Government Expenditure Figure 2: Building replacement cost density by district. (Million USD): 77.9 (% GDP): 31.9% 166° W 164° W 162° W 160° W 158° W 0 1 2 4

S Aitu- 0 150 300 600 ° Arutanga 8 taki Kilometers 1 Data assembled from various references including WB, ADB, IMF and The Kilometers S

Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC). ° 0 2 The projected 2010 population was trended from the 2006 census using 1 Atiu estimated growth rates provided by SPC. Land Cover / Land Use S Mangaia

° 2

1 Cassava Other Plantation 0 12 4 Coconut Crops Rice

S Coconut Forest Sand Bay Table 1 summarizes population and the inventory of buildings, 0 1 2 3 °

4 Grass Land Forest infrastructure assets, and major crops (or “exposure”) at 1 Nut Tree Settlement Avarua Rarotonga

S Open Land Sugarcane risk as well as key economic values for the Cook Islands. It is °

6 Orchard Taro 1 estimated that the replacement value of all the assets in the Other Unknown Crops Palm Oil Water S

Cook Islands is 1.4 billion USD of which about 91% represents ° 8 buildings and 8% represents infrastructure. 1 Atiu Aitutaki S

° 0 2 Rarotonga Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the building exposure location and Mangaia S

° replacement cost distribution, respectively. The footprints of 2 2 0 2 4 8 almost 10,000 of the approximately 11,000 buildings shown in Cook Islands Figure 1 were digitized from high-resolution satellite imagery. Figure 3: Land cover/land use map. More than 5,000 of such buildings, almost all in the main 2 September 2011 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: COOK ISLANDS

island of Rarotonga and the rest in the island of Aitutaki, were The Cook Islands are situated in a relatively quiet seismic area, also field surveyed and photographed by a team of inspectors but is surrounded by the Pacific “ring of fire,” which aligns deployed for this purpose. Figure 3 displays the land cover/ with the boundaries of the tectonic plates. These boundaries land use map that includes the location of major crops. The are extremely active seismic zones capable of generating large data utilized for these exhibits was assembled, organized earthquakes and, in some cases, major tsunamis that can and, when unavailable, produced in this study. travel great distances. No significant earthquakes have been reported in recent times. However, in 1909, a tsunami with TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EARTHQUAKE ­HAZARDS waves up to three meters damaged bridges and crop fields in IN COOK ISLANDS Rarotonga. Figure 5 shows that the Cook Islands have a 40% The Pacific islands region is prone to natural hazards. The chance in the next 50 years of experiencing, at least once, very Cook Islands are located south of the equator in an area weak levels of ground shaking. These levels of shaking are not known for the frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones with expected to cause any damage to well-engineered buildings damaging winds, rains and storm surge between the months and infrastructure assets. of October and May. In the South Pacific region from the equator to New Zealand in latitude and from Indonesia to 166° W 164° W 162° W 160° W 158° W 0 1 2 4

S Aitu-

0 150 300 600 ° Arutanga east of Hawaii in longitude, almost 1,000 tropical cyclones 8 taki Kilometers Kilometers S with hurricane-force winds spawned in the last 60 years, with ° 0

1 Atiu an average of about 16 tropical storms each year. The Cook

S Mangaia

Islands affected by devastating cyclones multiple times in ° 2

1 0 12 4 the last few decades. For example, in 1997, tropical cyclones S 0 1 2 3 °

Martin and Pam caused 22 fatalities, 19 of which were on 4 1 Manihiki Atoll alone, where wind and storm surge destroyed Avarua Rarotonga S

° 6 essentially every building on the island, incurring about 48 1 million USD in losses that crippled the local economy. More S

° 8 recently, in 2010, tropical cyclone Pat wrought widespread 1 Atiu Aitutaki S

damage on the island of Aitutaki. Figure 4 shows the levels ° 0 of wind speed due to tropical cyclones that have about a 40% 2 Rarotonga Mangaia S chance to be exceeded at least once in the next 50 years (100- ° 2 year mean return period). These wind speeds, if they were to 2 Cook Islands 0 2 4 8 occur, are capable of generating severe damage to buildings, Perceived Shaking Not Felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Violent Extreme infrastructure and crops with consequent large economic Moderate/ Very losses. Potential Damage none none none Very light light Moderate Heavy Heavy Heavy Peak ACC. (%g) <0.17 0.17-1.4 1.4-4.0 4.0-9 9-17 17-32 32-61 61-114 >114 Peak Vel. (cm/s) <0.12 0.12-1.1 1.1-3.4 3.4-8 8-16 16-31 31-59 59-115 >115 166° W 164° W 162° W 160° W 158° W 0 1 2 4 Instrumental Intensity I II-III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+

S Aitu-

0 150 300 600 ° Arutanga 8 taki Kilometers Scale based upon Wald. et al: 1999 Kilometers S

° Figure 5: Peak horizontal acceleration of the ground (Note: 1g is equal to the 0 1 Atiu acceleration of gravity) that has about a 40% chance to be exceeded at least once in

S Mangaia the next 50 years. (100-year mean return period).

° 2

1 0 12 4

S RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS

° 0 1 2 3 4 1 To estimate the risk profile for the Cook Islands posed by Avarua Rarotonga S

° tropical cyclones and earthquakes, a simulation model of 6 1 potential storms and earthquakes that may affect the country S

°

8 in the future was constructed. This model, based on historical 1 Atiu Aitutaki data, simulates more than 400,000 tropical cyclones and S

° 0 2 Rarotonga about 7.6 million earthquakes, grouped in 10,000 potential Mangaia realizations of the next year’s activity in the entire Pacific S

° 2 2 0 2 4 8 Basin. The catalog of simulated earthquakes also includes Cook Islands large magnitude events in South and North America, Japan and the Philippines, which could generate tsunamis that may 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 affect the Cook Islands’ shores.

Maximum Wind Speed Figure 4: Maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed (in miles per hour) with a 40% chance to be exceeded at least once in the next 50 years. (100-year mean return period). 3 September 2011 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: COOK ISLANDS

The country’s earthquake and tropical cyclone risk profiles 166° W 164° W 162° W 160° W 158° W 0 1 2 4

S Aitu- 0 150 300 600 ° Arutanga are derived from an estimation of the direct losses to 8 taki Kilometers Kilometers S buildings, infrastructure assets and major crops that are ° 0 caused by all the simulated potential future events. The 1 Atiu

S Mangaia direct losses include the cost of repairing or replacing the ° 2

1 012 4 damaged assets, but do not include other losses such as S 0 1 2 3 ° contents losses, business interruption losses and losses to 4 1 Total Average Annual Loss primary industries other than agriculture. The direct losses (million USD) Avarua Rarotonga S

° 0 - 0.05 0.2 - 0.3 0.5 - 0.6 6 for tropical cyclones are caused by wind and flooding due to 1 0.05 - 0.1 0.3 - 0.4 0.6 - 0.7 0.1 - 0.2 0.4 - 0.5

rain and storm surge, while losses for earthquakes are caused S

° 8 by ground shaking and tsunami inundation. After assessing 1 Atiu Aitutaki S the cost of repairing or rebuilding the damaged assets due ° 0 2 Rarotonga to the impact of all the simulated potential future events, it Mangaia S

is possible to estimate in a probabilistic sense the severity of ° 2 2 losses for future catastrophes. Cook Islands 0 2 4 8 Figure 7: Contribution from the different districts to the average annual loss for The simulations of possible next-year tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone and earthquake (ground shaking and tsunami). earthquake activity show that some years will see no storms 166° W 164° W 162° W 160° W 158° W 0 1 2 4

or earthquakes affecting the Cook Islands, while other years S Aitu- 0 150 300 600 ° Arutanga 8 taki Kilometers may see one or more events affecting the islands, similar to Kilometers S

what has happened historically. The annual losses averaged ° 0

1 Atiu over the many realizations of next-year activity are shown in

S Mangaia

°

Figure 6 separately for tropical cyclone and for earthquake 2

1 012 4 and tsunami, while the contributions to the average annual S 0 1 2 3 ° loss from the different electoral boundaries are displayed in 4 AAL / Asset Value 1 absolute terms in Figure 7 and normalized by the total asset 0% - 0.1% 0.4% - 0.45% Avarua Rarotonga S

° 0.1% - 0.2% 0.45% - 0.5% 6 values in each electoral boundary in Figure 8. Figure 8 shows 1 0.2% - 0.3% 0.5% - 1% how the relative risk varies by electoral boundary across the 0.3% - 0.4% 1% - 2.6% S

° 8 country. 1 Atiu Aitutaki S

Tropical Cyclone Earthquake ° 0 Average Annual Loss = 4.9 million USD Average Annual Loss = 0.001 million USD 2 Rarotonga 9.6%0.9% 1.5% 0.9% Mangaia S

° 2 Buildings Buildings 2 0 2 4 8 Cash Crops Cash Crops Cook Islands Infrastructure Infrastructure Figure 8: Contribution from the different districts to the tropical cyclone and 89.5% 97.6% earthquake (ground shaking and tsunami) average annual loss divided by the replacement cost of the assets in each district. Figure 6: Average annual loss due to tropical cyclones and earthquakes (ground shaking and tsunami) and its contribution from the three types of assets. ) Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Ground Motion Tsunami D

S 100 10 The same risk assessment carried out for the Cook Islands U

n 8 o was also performed for the 14 other Pacific Island Countries. i 80 6 l l The values of the average annual loss of the Cook Islands and i 4 m of the other 14 countries are compared in Figure 9. ( 2 60 0 s o L

In addition to estimating average risk per calendar year, l 40 a

another way of assessing risk is to examine large and u n

rather infrequent, but possible, future tropical cyclone and n 20 earthquake losses. Table 2 summarizes the risk profile for the e A

Cook Islands in terms of both direct losses and emergency g

a 0 losses. The former are the expenditures needed to repair e r or replace the damaged assets while the latter are the v A expenditures that the Cook Islands government may need to incur in the aftermath of a natural catastrophe to provide necessary relief and conduct activities such as debris removal, Figure 9: Average annual loss for all the 15 Pacific Island Countries considered in this study. 4 September 2011 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: COOK ISLANDS

setting up shelters for homeless or supplying medicine and In addition to causing damage and losses to the built food. The emergency losses are estimated as a percentage environment and crops, future earthquakes and tropical of the direct losses. cyclones will also have an impact on population. The same probabilistic procedure described above for losses has been Table 2 includes the losses that are expected to be exceeded, adopted to estimate the likelihood that different levels of on average, once every 50, 100, and 250 years. For example, casualties (i.e., fatalities and injuries) may result from the a tropical cyclone loss exceeding 103 million USD, which future occurrence of these events. As shown in Table 2, our is equivalent to about 42% of the Cook Islands’ GDP, is to model estimates, for example, that there is a 40% chance be expected on average once every 100 years. In the Cook in the next fifty years (100 year mean return period) that Islands, tropical cyclone losses are clearly prominent in the one or more events in a calendar year will cause casualties risk profile although earthquakes and earthquake-induced exceeding 145 people in the Cook Islands. Events causing tsunamis are also capable of generating losses. 300 or more casualties are also possible but have much lower likelihood of occurring. A more complete picture of the risk can be found in Figure 10, which shows the mean return period of direct losses in TABLE 2: Estimated Losses and Casualties Caused by Natural Perils million USD generated by earthquake, tsunami and tropical Mean Return Period (years) AAL 50 100 250 cyclones combined. The 50-, 100-, and 250-year mean return Risk Profile: Tropical Cyclone period losses in Table 2 can also be determined from the curves in this figure. The direct losses are expressed both in Direct Losses absolute terms and as a percent of the national GDP. (Million USD) 4.9 56.8 103.0 198.1 (% GDP) 2.0% 23.3% 42.2% 81.2%

400 Emergency Losses TC+EQ ) 350 (Million USD) 1.1 13.1 23.6 45.5 D TC 300 U S

n EQ (% of total government 1.4% 16.8% 30.3% 58.4% 250 expenditures)

m illi o 200 (

s Casualties 9 112 145 183 150 ss e o

L Risk Profile: Earthquake and Tsunami

100 t c e r

i 50 Direct Losses D 0 (Million USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Mean Return Period (years) (% GDP) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Emergency Losses 150% TC+EQ (Million USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 125% ) TC (% of total government 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EQ expenditures) GD P 100% % (

s 75% Casualties 0 0 0 0 ss e

o Risk Profile: Tropical Cyclone, Earthquake, and Tsunami L

50% t c e

r Direct Losses i 25% D (Million USD) 4.9 56.8 103.0 198.1 0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 (% GDP) 2.0% 23.3% 42.2% 81.2% Mean Return Period (years) Emergency Losses

Figure 10: Direct losses (in absolute terms and normalized by GDP) caused by either (Million USD) 1.1 13.1 23.6 45.5 tropical storms or earthquakes that are expected to be exceeded, on average, once (% of total government 1.4% 16.8% 30.3% 58.4% in the time period indicated. expenditures) Casualties 9 112 145 183

1Casualties include fatalities and injuries.

5 September 2011 APPLICATIONS their fiscal balance. The earthquake and tropical cyclone The country risk profiles can support multiple applications hazard models also provide critical information for building that benefit both public and private stakeholders. Inurban codes in terms of country-specific seismic and wind loads and development planning, planners can use the risk that buildings should be designed for to ensure adequate profile information to identify the best location of new shelter to the population. The risk information can also help development areas, evaluate how natural hazards may identify existing vulnerable areas and communities located shape their development, and to assess whether the benefits in or adjacent to these areas. This information can assist in of reducing the risk of natural events justify the costs of supporting more targeted intervention in community-based implementing the risk mitigating measures. In addition, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation the risk profiles can inform the development ofdisaster actions. In the occurrence of a natural disaster the database risk financing and insurance solutions and ex ante budget also provides extremely useful baseline data and information planning options to increase the financial resilience of the for conducting timely and effective post-disaster damage countries against natural disasters while maintaining assessments.

For information please visit http://pacrisk.sopac.org/ or contact [email protected]