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Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan

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Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan ENHANCING SECURITY AND STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN DECEMBER 2020 UNCLASSIFIED This page left intentionally blank UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Enhancing Security and Stability In Afghanistan December 2020 Report to Congress In Accordance With Section 1225 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2015, as amended; Section 1521(c) of the NDAA for FY 2017; Section 602(b)(14) of the Afghan Allies Protection Act of 2009 (8 U.S.C. 1101 note); and Section 1520 of the NDAA for FY 2020. The estimated cost of this report for the Department of Defense is approximately $131,000 for the Fiscal Year 2021. This includes $1,000 in expenses and $130,000 in DoD labor. Generated on March 31, 2021 RefID: 7-653B15D UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED This page left intentionally blank UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED This report is submitted in accordance with and fulfills the reporting requirements of Section 1225 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2015, as amended; Section 1521(c) of the NDAA for FY 2017; Section 602(b)(14) of the Afghan Allies Protection Act of 2009 (8 U.S.C. 1101 note); and Section 1520 of the NDAA for FY 2020. The report also provides information on the requests contained in page 348 of House Report 116-84, the Committee on Appropriations Report to accompany H.R. 2968, the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2020, and in page 264 of the Senate Report 116-48, the Committee on Armed Services Report to accompany S.1790, the NDAA for FY 2020. It includes a description of the strategy of the United States for enhancing security and stability in Afghanistan, a current and anticipated threat assessment, and a description and assessment of the size, structure, strategy, budget, and financing of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. This report was prepared in coordination with the Secretary of State’s designee. This report describes efforts to enhance security and stability in Afghanistan from June 1, 2020, through November 30, 2020. The data cutoff date for this report is October 31, 2020. This report complements other reports and information about Afghanistan provided to Congress and is not intended to be the single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its coalition partners, or Afghanistan. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED This page left intentionally blank UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 Section 1 – Objectives and Strategy ............................................................................................... 3 1.1 U.S. Strategy and Objectives in Afghanistan ........................................................................ 3 1.2 Counterterrorism Mission ..................................................................................................... 4 1.3 NATO-Led Resolute Support Mission ................................................................................. 4 1.4 TAA Overview ...................................................................................................................... 5 Section 2 – Current Situation and Threat Assessment .................................................................... 8 2.1 Current Security Conditions ................................................................................................. 8 2.2 Influence of Regional Actors .............................................................................................. 10 2.3 Threats from Insurgent and Terrorist Groups ..................................................................... 11 2.4 Mitigating Casualties in Afghanistan .................................................................................. 14 Section 3 – Assessment of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces ............................ 18 3.1 ANDSF Structure And Size ................................................................................................ 18 3.2 ANDSF Operational Campaign .......................................................................................... 19 3.3 Developing Ministry Capacity and Capability: Indicators of Progress ............................. 19 3.4 Security of Afghan Women and Girls ................................................................................ 27 3.5 Assessment of Progress on Objectives ............................................................................... 31 Section 4 – Ministry of Defense and Afghan National Defense Forces ....................................... 35 4.1 Ministry of Defense ............................................................................................................ 35 4.2 Afghan National Army (ANA) ........................................................................................... 38 4.3 MoD Special Security Forces ............................................................................................. 40 4.4 Afghan Air Force (AAF) .................................................................................................... 45 Section 5 – Ministry of Interior and Afghan security forces ........................................................ 54 5.1 Ministry of Interior ............................................................................................................. 54 5.2 Afghan National Police ....................................................................................................... 57 5.3 MoI Special Security Forces: General Command of Police Special Units (GCPSU) ........ 59 Section 6 – Financing the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces ................................... 62 6.1 U.S. Afghan Security Forces Fund ..................................................................................... 62 6.2 NATO Afghan National Army Trust Fund (NATF) ........................................................... 63 6.3 United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan (LOTFA) ................................................................................................................................... 65 6.4 Afghan Government Funding ............................................................................................. 66 Annex A – Acronyms ................................................................................................................... 67 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED This page left intentionally blank UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For two decades, the United States’ primary strategic interest in Afghanistan has been to ensure that the country is never again used as a “safe haven” from which terrorists can launch attacks against the United States, its allies, or its interests abroad. As such, the United States continues to conduct two missions under Operation FREEDOM’S SENTINEL to support the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s (GIRoA) efforts to obtain a durable political settlement to end the ongoing civil conflict, mitigate the threats posed by violent extremist organizations (VEO), and promote stability in Afghanistan. First, U.S. personnel participate in the NATO-led Resolute Support (RS) mission to train, advise, and assist the Ministries of Defense (MoD) and Interior (MoI), including administering $4 billion in annual Department of Defense (DOD) Afghanistan Security Forces Fund (ASFF) security assistance. Second, they conduct a counterterrorism mission to counter threats from terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K.) During this reporting period (June 1, 2020 – November 30, 2020), representatives from GIRoA and the Taliban began Afghanistan Peace Negotiations (APN) in Doha, Qatar, in accordance with the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban Agreement. The start of APN represents a major milestone in pursuit of a durable political settlement in Afghanistan. Also during this reporting period, the United States continued to fulfill its obligations under the U.S.-Taliban agreement by implementing a conditions-based, phased reduction of troops (8,600 by July, 4,500 by November, and 2,500 by January 2021). On January 15, 2021, U.S. Force levels in Afghanistan have reached 2,500 as directed by President Trump and announced by Acting Secretary Christopher Miller on November 17, 2020.1 Our strategy in Afghanistan is conditions-based; our commanders on the ground continually evaluate the current conditions and make recommendations on appropriate force levels.2 Over the last six months, violence levels in Afghanistan remained above seasonal norms. The Taliban conducted numerous direct fire attacks against Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) checkpoints and initiated many other destructive attacks on critical infrastructure across the country. The United States continues to emphasize the need for a reduction in violence. ISIS-K also demonstrated its ability to plan and execute high-profile attacks in urban areas, despite losing its territorial strongholds in 2019 and adopting a clandestine cell-based network across the country. Notably, however, attacks against U.S. and coalition personnel actually decreased during this period, largely as a result of stipulations in the U.S.- Taliban agreement. The United States remains committed to addressing these security threats using both diplomatic and military mechanisms. Other key developments during this reporting period
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