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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Beyond al-Qaeda PART 2 The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe Angel Rabasa • Peter Chalk • Kim Cragin • Sara A. Daly • Heather S. Gregg Theodore W. Karasik • Kevin A. O’Brien • William Rosenau Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release, distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Beyond al-Qaeda. Part 2. The outer rings of the terrorist universe / Angel Rabasa ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-430.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN-13: 978-0-8330-3932-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Qaida (Organization) 2. Terrorists. 3. Terrorism—Government policy—United States. 4. Terrorism—United States—Prevention. 5. War on Terrorism, 2001– I. Rabasa, Angel. HV6431.B4932 2006 363.325'12—dc22 2006025206 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2006 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the U.S. response—the global war on terrorism—have changed the world, and the terrorist enterprise that we know as al-Qaeda has changed with it. The cur- rent status of al-Qaeda’s network remains unclear, but it is certain that it and other terrorist groups continue to threaten the lives and well-being of Americans, at home and abroad, and the security of our friends and allies. This continuing danger leads to ongoing U.S. and international efforts to monitor, disrupt, and dismantle terrorist groups before they can cause large-scale destruction to our people or our interests. The objective of this RAND Corporation study, undertaken as part of a project entitled “Beyond al-Qaeda: Countering Future Terrorist and Other Nontraditional Threats to U.S. Security,” is to understand the shape of future threats to the United States and U.S. security interests from terrorist and other extremist organizations. We do this through analyses that draw together the various threat strands that are informing current U.S. thinking in the war on terror. The study looks specifically at four sources of threats: 1. Al-Qaeda. We examine how al-Qaeda has changed since September 11, the loss of its operating base in Afghanistan, and the death or capture of key operatives; and we assess what forms the al-Qaeda threat to the United States and U.S. interests take now and might take in the future. iii iv Beyond al-Qaeda: The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe 2. Terrorist groups that may not be formally part of al-Qaeda but that have assimilated al-Qaeda’s worldview and concept of mass- casualty terrorist attacks. This, we believe, is where the center of gravity of the current global terrorist threat lies. 3. Violent Islamist and non-Islamist terrorist and insurgent groups without known links to al-Qaeda. These groups threaten U.S. regional interests, friends, and allies, as well as other nontradi- tional threats. 4. The nexus between terrorism and organized crime. In each case, we examine how the presence of these threats affects U.S. secu- rity interests, and we identify distinct strategies that the United States and the U.S. Air Force may take to neutralize or mitigate each of these threats. The results of the study are reported in two volumes. This book is the seccond of the two; the first, by Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, and William Rosenau, is entitled Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 1, The Global Jihadist Movement. This research builds on previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work on counterterrorism, notably the following: • Angel Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Peter Chalk, Christine Fair, Theodore Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian Lesser, and David Thaler,The Muslim World After 9/11, MG-246-AF, 2004 • Nora Bensahel, The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Europe, NATO, and the European Union, MR-1746-AF, 2003 • Kim Cragin and Sara Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, MR-1782-AF, 2004 • Lynn Davis, Steven Hosmer, Sara Daly, and Karl Mueller, The U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy: A Planning Framework to Facilitate Timely Policy Adjustments, DB-426-AF, 2004 • David Ochmanek, Military Operations Against Terrorist Groups Abroad: Implications for the United States Air Force, MR-1738-AF, 2003. Preface v This research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (A3/5), and conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. Research for this project was completed in September 2004. This book should be of value to the national security community and to inter- ested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in combating the blight of international terrorism. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figure and Tables ................................................................ xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................xxxi Abbreviations ................................................................. xxxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Anaytical Framework .............................................................. 2 CHAPTER TWO Hezbollah and Hamas ........................................................... 5 Hezbollah, Party of God .......................................................... 5 Ideological Foundation.......................................................... 8 Strategic and Operational Objectives.........................................11 Environmental Factors .........................................................13 Hamas: The Islamic Resistance Movement ....................................15 Ideological Foundation.........................................................17 Strategic and Operational Objectives.........................................19 Environmental Factors .........................................................21 Epilogue......................................................................... 22 CHAPTER THREE Other Islamist Groups Outside the al-Qaeda Network ..................25 The Armed Islamic Group ......................................................25 vii viii Beyond al-Qaeda: The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe Ideological Foundation.......................................................