If we’re going to stand a chance against megafires, we must make changes By Tom Boatner

was a green 19-year-old when I started 2000, and shift locations from remote Alaska unprecedented fire season. More than a million fighting fire on a helitack crew in 1976 in fire camps to the Aerial Fire Depot in acres were burning in Montana and north Ithe Fortymile country of Alaska’s eastern Missoula, Mont. I was no longer the greenest Idaho. Four area commands (ACs) were Interior. Sitting around campfires in the kid firefighter in Alaska; I was the Bureau of deployed along with more than 20 Type I and II Alaska bush when our work was done, the Land Management’s (BLM) State Fire incident management teams; more than 20,000 older guys from my crew and other crews we Management Officer for Montana and the firefighters and 200 aircraft were at work in the worked with used to talk about the biggest, Dakotas, as well as the BLM representative to Northern Rockies alone. Thousands of people baddest fire any of them had ever worked on the Northern Rockies Multi-Agency Coordi- had evacuated their homes, and numerous or heard about. It was called the Sundance nating Group (NRMAC). communities were imminently threatened. Fire, and it burned the Idaho Panhandle dur- At that time, the NRMAC had assembled in Other geographic areas in the West were ing the summer of 1967. Missoula to set priorities and make decisions also experiencing big fire seasons, making Flash forward 25 fire seasons to that of about resource allocations for a huge and competition for firefighting resources intense.

14 WILDLAND FIREFIGHTER MAY 2008 it to what we were dealing with during the sum- soon replaced by the next multi-hundred- mer of 2000, and thinking, “Man, we wouldn’t thousand-acre, multi-million-dollar gobbler. I even break a sweat for the ‘Fire Emergency of visited an AC in central Idaho last summer, 1967’ if it occurred today.” And yet a mere 33 and on the daily conference call, the ICs talked years earlier, it had been considered a major fire about their three fires—all of which had bust, and the Sundance Fire had been consid- burned more than 200,000 acres and threat- ered the monster fire of the decade. ened homes and communities—like it was just I don’t mean to make light of the another day at the office. Sundance Fire or the firefighters of that era. Routinely in recent fire seasons, demand The Sundance Fire was a serious, hot fire. It for resources has far outstripped availability burned 50,000 of its total acres in one amaz- and overall fire suppression costs measure in ing 9-hour run that killed two firefighters. The the billions. So in the short span of just a few fireline leaders and firefighters of that time decades, the length of one fire career, the were physically fit, tough, skilled woodsmen world we as firefighters operate in has who worked with little or no air support and changed dramatically. completely without the high-quality commu- nications, meteorology and predictive services The Three Horsemen support we enjoy today. What I do mean to What’s driving this remarkable, large-scale say, and discuss throughout this article, is that change and what do we need to do about it? I our world has changed. As a result of this think the major factors have been widely dis- change, is no longer an occurrence cussed and are, for the most part, widely that takes place for a relatively short amount agreed upon by wildland fire professionals. I of time out in the woods; it has mutated into call them the three horsemen: climate change, a major event that lasts at times for weeks on fuels build-up and homes. Note: In my view, a end, taking lives and property, thoroughly fire manager’s perspective, it’s not important to exhausting all resources and leaving large get into a huge debate about what’s causing or swaths of burned acres and homes in its wake. driving climate change, and whether it’s a tem- porary aberration or a long-term change. Mega Stats Some facts are beyond debate: Our fire seasons Thirty years ago, if anyone had accurately pre- are longer, hotter and dryer, and there’s no dicted the fire seasons of today, they would’ve apparent end in sight, so we better be pre- been laughed out of fire camp. We’ve all heard pared to deal with them. the statistics—after a while they become over- Successful fire exclusion has led to grad- whelming. The National Interagency Fire ual, widespread fuels build-up on public Center (NIFC) in Boise maintains a wealth of lands, which, along with climate change, statistics on acres burned per fire season dating drives the intense, large-scale fire seasons we back to 1960. Of the 10 largest fire seasons see today and their consistent stream of since 1960, using total acres burned as a rela- megafires. The continued explosion of home tive measure of fire season scale, nine have building in fire-prone environments and the occurred since 1999. The four busiest seasons, consequent demand to protect those homes using total acres burned as the measure, are the add a complexity and expense that was essen- The NRMAC held some of its daily conference last four, the two busiest being the last two. tially unknown in the not-too-distant past. calls with ACs and incident commanders Many states have registered historic fire (ICs) in a small library in the NR Training seasons in the last decade, as well as the What We’re Doing Right Center, which contained a lot of interesting largest fire or fires in a century or more of post- The interagency wildland fire programs across historical documents. Imagine my surprise settlement history—the so-called “megafires.” the country have become highly integrated and when one day I discovered a map labeled “The The record-breaking states range from Georgia professional in recent years, as we’ve built one Northern Region Fire Emergency of 1967,” and Florida to Alaska and include California, national fire response program, rather than which identified the locations and sizes of the Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, innumerable independent federal, state and fires that comprised this famous fire bust, and Oregon, Colorado, Montana, Idaho, Nevada, local fire organizations. This has led to consis- heading the list was the monster fire of my Washington and Utah. tently high initial-attack success rates in every youth—the Sundance Fire. I was even more The string of fires that make Sundance part of the country, despite the thundering of shocked to see that it was only a 55,910-acre look puny include the Hayman, Missionary the three horsemen across the fire landscape. fire and that the other fires that comprised this Ridge, Rodeo-Chediski, Cedar, Biscuit, With the development, widespread accept- “fire emergency” ranged in size from 124 to Boundary, Murphy, Zaca, Day, Valley, (insert ance and evolution of the incident command 16,600 acres. Total acreage burned by all the the name of your favorite megafire here). None system, an agreed-upon set of national training fires in the bust: a meager 98,837. of these megafires’ public notoriety lasts very and qualification standards, and a national I remember looking at that map, comparing long, like Sundance’s did, because they are coordination and mobilization system, we’ve

MAY 2008 WILDLAND FIREFIGHTER 15 The Changing Face of Fire

become adept at acquiring and moving mas- The huge integrated national fire program sive numbers of fire resources to any location we’ve built is predicated on our willingness to in the country to deal with fire activity that help our neighbor firefighters in their time of grows beyond a local area’s capability. need, believing that they will return the favor Outside of the military, no other organiza- in our time of need. tion or agency in America can organize and It’s a beautiful system to watch in opera- move the numbers and types of people and tion; however, it’s based on the assumption gear that fire agencies move on a regular basis. that the overall supply of fire resources will With rapidly expanding prescribed fire and exceed the overall demand for those resources fuels treatment programs, we’re also attempt- most of the time. This is no longer true. ing to reduce fuels build-up, put fire back These days, demand routinely exceeds sup- where it belongs and improve protection of ply for long periods of time because of three threatened communities and homes. major factors: • The scale/duration of today’s fire seasons; What Needs to Change • The stress on fire budgets at all levels, Despite the major strides we’ve taken in recent which leads to reduced numbers of fire- years to fight larger fires, there are problems fighters and key equipment; and and weaknesses we must continuously address. • The demands to continue expanding fuels reduction and prescribed fire work and to The System respond to other types of non-fire incidents. Because our current system of integrated This leads to scarce, high-quality AP PHOTO/MATT YORK national fire resource availability and move- resources working on lower-priority fires in Members of the Sierra Hotshot Crew of Oakhurst, Calif., maintain the fireline ment has been highly successful, and because one place rather than rapidly moving those during a backburn near Cibucue, Ariz., on we’ve long been successful at making aggres- resources to critical fires in other places. Our the Rodeo-Chediski Fire, which charred sive initial attacks, we’re comfortable continu- intelligence system becomes a means to exag- more than 460,000 acres. ing to do some things the same way we did gerate threats and needs, and hide and hoard them yesterday. It works, and we’re good at it. scarce resources.

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Multi-Agency Issues Our multi-agency coordination groups and systems, although improved in recent years, have still not developed into organizations and processes with clear command-and-control authority. As a result, across the country and across jurisdictional lines we lack clear and consistent methods for accurately and objec- tively making decisions, and determining rela- tive priorities and values at risk.

Resources Too often, air assets, hotshot crews and other critical resources work on the backside of a low-priority fire instead of rapidly redeploying to a more critical location. If we’re going to successfully deal with today’s fire seasons, where resource demand will routinely outstrip PHOTO JEFF ZIMMERMAN In July 2007, the burned more than 240,00 acres, making it California’s second- firefighting capability, we must collectively largest fire in history after the Cedar Fire of 2003. identify where and when we must fight fire aggressively no matter what, and where and make than the decision to offer up and release command-and-control authorities that allow when we can scale back our efforts and still resources during a time of fire threat to some- these decisions to be made intelligently, reduce fuels, restore needed fire in ecosys- one who needs them more. Our agencies must objectively and quickly. tems, move resources to higher-priority fires support and praise those kinds of high-risk, Commanders who decide to staff large fires or simply cut costs. brave decisions and the leaders who make for the long term and order large numbers of There isn’t a riskier or more courageous them. We must also continue to strengthen fire resources must first consider the level of decision for a line officer or fire manager to our processes, chains of command, and fire activity regionally and nationally, as well

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THE PERFECT Climate change,fuels build-up & land use among causes of rising megafire trend By Thomas Swetnam

he Earth is warming up and some Large forest fires are occurring ear- a primary problem in other areas. Tregions, such as the western United lier in the season, especially during early Unfortunately, these many different con- States, are drying out. One of the pre- snowmelt years, which have also tributing factors often interact and com- dicted, and now observed, ecological increased in frequency in the past two bine in different ways with climate consequences of these climate changes: decades. Many of these large fires have change to increase the impact on larger and more severe . occurred in higher elevations of northern ecosystems and people. This is the “per- Thousands of scientists worldwide states in areas dominated by wetter, fect firestorm” of the present and future. have been intensively studying the pat- cooler forests that rarely burned in the Solutions to wildfire problems will terns, causes and impacts of recent cli- past. These areas have also been less depend upon tailoring policy and man- mate changes. The bulk of scientific affected by fire suppression than lower- agement responses to local circum- evidence supports the conclusions that elevation, drier forests that previously stances, while also moving rapidly the climate is warming, and greenhouse burned frequently during surface fires. toward national and global reduction of gas emissions from burning fossil fuels Studies in Canada and Alaska show greenhouse gas emissions. and forest clearing are largely responsi- similar trends of increasing area burned A position statement on climate ble. Moreover, it’s evident from docu- related to warming temperatures. change and its implications for fire man- mentary records and paleoecology data Although reliable, long-term Russian agement by the Association of Fire that wildfires are highly responsive to fire statistics have been difficult to Ecology (AFE) can be viewed at recent and past warming and drying pat- obtain, warming is also abundantly evi- www.fireecology.net/pdfs/san_diego_de terns. It’s quite likely that future climate dent across . Gigantic fires have claration_final_29_nov_2006.pdf. changes due to rising greenhouse gases occurred in recent years in this vast The AFE is a professional organiza- will lead to an increase in the size and region, dwarfing those observed in tion composed of fire ecologists and fire severity of wildfires in many regions. North America. managers from the United States and The scientific literature on climate In addition to climate change, other other countries. change and wildfires is developing rap- factors are contributing to wildfire prob- idly with increasing evidence of the lems, with varying importance from Tom Swetnam was raised in rural north- trends and their impacts. My colleagues place to place. For example, there have ern New Mexico where his father was a and I, for example, published a paper in been changes in some ecosystems as a Forest Service district ranger. He worked August 2006 (Westerling et al., Science, consequence of fire suppression and seasonally as a helitack firefighter in the vol. 313, p. 940–943) that clearly shows a land uses over the past century. Gila Wilderness during the late 1970s. He rising trend in the number of large forest Increasing stand densities, fuel has been a professor at the University of fires in the 11 contiguous western states, amounts and continuity are major con- Arizona since 1987, using tree rings to as well as strong correlations with rising tributing factors to recent wildfire extent study forest fire history and climate in the temperatures. We found that almost and severity in some areas. Invasive western United States, Mexico, Argentina seven times more land area burned grasses and other species have also and Siberia. between 1987 and 2003 than between greatly modified fire regimes. 1970 and 1986. Urbanization of fire prone landscapes is

as the current and future availability of fire- Training The average age of students in recent ses- fighting resources, because obtaining staff and Another area that needs improvement: our sions of S-520: Advanced Incident Management, resources for the long term is no easy task. method of training and qualifying firefighters continues to hover around 50. This is bad There are very complex jurisdictional, legal and fire support personnel as they gain expe- business and bad people management. When and political issues, as well as the priority- rience. We call it a performance-based system, firefighters’ lives and people’s homes are at setting and decision-making national intera- but we’ve allowed it to become a time-based stake, we must identify the most talented and gency wildland fire model that cuts across system. In general, we require Ullysses S. capable fireline leaders and fire support lead- agency and jurisdictional lines, that will Grant and Beetle Bailey to put in the same ers, and move them forward and upward more always limit total resource mobility. Improving amount of time to become qualified and quickly. Wildland firefighters who began our interagency command-and-control priority- advance as fireline leaders. Instead of recog- careers in the last 10–20 years have seen more setting and decision-making models at local, nizing that General Grant far exceeds Private fire—and more intense fire—than anyone state and national levels will directly affect Bailey in sheer talent and capability, we make who’s ever fought fire in America before them. how well we adapt to future megafires and them both struggle along equally with task The best and the brightest of this generation megafire seasons. books and trainee assignments. shouldn’t be arbitrarily held back from key

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on past success, and we can’t continue to do it For 31 years, Tom Boatner worked on helitack today like we did it yesterday. Leaders con- and engine crews as a smokejumper aviation man- stantly assess and reassess performance at ager, fire management officer and finally as the every level and look for weaknesses that can Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) Chief of be improved. Leaders challenge the tradi- Fire Operations at the National Interagency Fire tional way of doing business and ask not only Center. In his last assignment, Boatner represented why things are the way they are, but if there’s the BLM on the National Multi-Agency a better way of doing them. The new world of Coordinating Group and for the past 2 years megafires and megafire seasons will require us served as the group’s chair. [Tom: When did you to develop new strategies and tactics for deal- retire? Oct. 2007?] ing with them. AP PHOTO/ED ANDRIESKI A firefighting helicopter races to fill its bucket as the Missionary Ridge Fire rages out of control north of Durango, Colo., on June 20, 2002. leadership positions simply because their boss advanced at a slower pace.

Public Information Lastly, we must aggressively look for opportu- nities to educate and use the media to help us describe to the public the fire environment in which we work. When elected officials or homeowners complain or criticize our deci- sions and/or our performance, our profes- sional, courteous response must be that we won’t risk firefighters’ lives in places where wildland/urban interface (WUI) standards haven’t been established and enforced, and where homeowners have done little or noth- ing to help firefighters protect their homes without dying in the attempt. Elected officials and homeowners in the WUI must partner with wildland fire agencies and accept their fair share of the responsibility for the work that must be done and the risk that must be faced. Conclusion When you consider the fire seasons of the last decade, it’s remarkable how well we’ve dealt with their intensity and scale. We’ve perfected many tactics over the years for fighting dynamic, dangerous, large-scale fires. Our safety record is impeccable, and we remain focused on making it better. But we can’t rest

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