European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Forecasts Weather Medium-Range for Centre (3)European

(1) . (c) (d)

hPa

Fire spread

UK Met Office weather Office weather Met UK , Margherita , Margherita As in (a) but for 700 in(a)for As but (b) 304˚K potential temperature 304˚Ktemperature potential (1) (4/8) till 03:00 (5/8). (c) madeideal Transverse ageostrophic wind ageostrophic Transverse input parameters. input L (b) the existence of an of existence the (b) Contact: Thomas I. Petroliagkis Petroliagkis I. Thomas Contact:

Cubic hourly simulation of GF, WS andWS simulationGF, Cubicof hourly Haines Index Haines 6 5 4 3 (b) and GF (b) . (a) (c) [email protected] WS Gust Factor (GF) Wind Speed (WS) Haines Index (HI) utilising

(b) FireSim revealing low values of RH reaching at ground level (18 ground UTC). at revealinglowvaluesreaching RH of – Duration of simulations: from 12:00simulations: of from UTC Duration – Forecast horizon in hours (step 1: analysis of T+00) (d) European Commission • Joint Research Centre • IES IES • Centre Research Commission Joint • European 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 (b) ECMWF Hourly Gust Factor - Wind Speed & Haines Index during 4 to 5 August 2015

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

and GF Wind Speed in km/h in Speed Wind H (a) (c) crossing and intensifying over and to the east of fire fire eastof the andto intensifyingand over crossing (b) andJesusSan-Miguel-Ayanz WS Verticalsection cross (a) (3) (c) analysis of 4 August 12 UTC revealing an upper omega circulation. omega upper revealingan analysis 12 UTC 4 August of utilising H LLJ was hPa Tel. +39 0332 78 3907 Email:• Tel. found to be in agreement with the position and movement of the the of positionandmovement withthe inagreement be to found , Dario Rodriguez-Aseretto Dario , ECMWF 950 hPa geopotential andwind analysis950 ECMWF geopotential 18 hPa UTC. (T+00)4 August of ECMWF cross section of potential temperature surfacesvalid(4/8) 12 UTC with for temperature potential of section cross ECMWF ECMWF 500 ECMWF Vertical cross section depicting the Low-Level Jet (LLJ) at 700 and the Secondary LLJ (SLLJ) at 950at (SLLJ) hPa. LLJ 700at Secondary (LLJ) andthe Jet Low-Level depicting the Verticalsection cross Fire spread details Fire as simulatedbeing by EFFIS (2) details by FARSITE (c) HI during 4 to 5/8 42014. to HI during

L L (a) Main Messages values (GFs)factor gust [6]model instantaneous instead of Byintroducing was inaccuracy accomplished inall speeds(WSs) significant improvement simulations. evolution fire atmospheric of concept the consider to Overall, itseemsimportant quite forest inthe as elements key SLLJ / LLJ of stability,presence dryness andthe to conducive system particularly circumstances management in fire Layer). Boundary (Planetary PBL within the interactions direct downward current) the fire during the critical hours of 4 August. 4August. of critical hours the during fire the current) downward direct S that time The centroid maximum instability of (andtimes at high very as definedby the area HICHI / valuesvalues Haineshigh “saturated”) of index(HI)CHI.Such & Index. Weather dailyalso byalmost combined an “saturated” Fire were initial the simulationsof Most utilising wind instantaneous speed ECMWF values,as driving terms Information Fires Forest (European EFFIS for System) inaccurate [5] were [4] andFARSITE models,namely FireSim evolution fire winds. prevailing true intensity andgustiness of inthe errors to due Results revealed parameters weather fire Closeinvestigation of dissolvinga linked to warm trough upper-air day (3 previous the on front of approach andthe centroid lowstability valuesfire over providing August) stability atmosphere. the the lowering of further southwest from acoldfront surface strong of prevailing airdrynessandthe aboveall, But the wind gusts 950at accompanied by(SLLJ) a hPa Jet Low-Level aSecondary to due 700at 800/ hPa pronounced most leveltrough short-wave event. extreme an such for conditions wouldhave SLLJ of area entrance left the that out point to is It important pattern allowedacirculation air(bydry a feed 4 (b) to inFigure as shown Figure 6. map valid for 4 August (00 UTC). The position of fire centroid is indicated centroid by fire ayellow circle. positionof The (00 mapvalid UTC). 4 August for (a) components and patterns of divergence associated with the entrance and exit regions of a jet streak adapted from [3]. adapted streak from ajet of regions andexit associatedentrance divergence withthe of andpatterns components surface bending downwards and “hitting” directly the position of fire centroid fire positionof directly the downwards bending and“hitting” surface Figure 4. (a) Figure 5. (a) Figure 3. (a)

(d)

(h)

CHI Clima CHI Day 1 CHI Day 2 CHI Day 3 CHI Day 4 CHI Day 5 CHI Day 6 As in (a)

(b) , Tomas Artes Tomas , (1) CHIversusvalues FWI Fire Burned Area (FIBA) Categories , Florian Pappenberger (h) FWI Values No. of Mega-Fires > 10K > 5K > 3K2K > > 1K > 0.5K (3) Number of Mega-Fires over European & MENA Countries during 2009 to 2014 Inter-annual variability Inter-annual large of of the European European the of

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 FIBA in ha in FIBA (c) As in (a) but for all European & MENA MENA & all European in(a)for As but for Sweden Megafire, Sala, 31 July to 5 August 2014 (f) Continuous Haines Index (CHI) Vs Fire Weather Index (FWI) Clima Values 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

8 6 4 2 0

-2 12 10 CHI Values CHI As in (a) but for Portugal, Spain, France, Italy & Spain, France, Portugal, in(a)for As but (f) (e) (d) (c) (3) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Forecasts Weather Medium-Range for Centre (3)European

Influencing Forest Fire Evolution Behavior Evolution Fire Forest Influencing , Giorgio Liberta , Giorgio Larsson of Swedish Meteorological andHydrological Swedish of Meteorological Larsson Details of FIBA during fire’s blow-up. Detailsduring FIBA of municipalities in Sweden. This fire proved to to proved municipalities Thisfire inSweden. (d) (g) (1) (b) Burned 1 (a) while in Figure given are Area)

Lennart FIre and (b) As in (a) but for MENA countries. countries. MENA in(a)for As but of Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) are to be thanked for their their for thanked be to (MSB) Swedish are of Civil Agency Contingencies (c) Surahammar Laurin (1) European Commission, Joint Research Centre – (2) Autonomous University of Barcelona Universityof (2)– Autonomous Centre Research Commission,Joint (1)European Stability of Atmospheric Flow & Low-Level Jets Jets Low-Level & Flow StabilityAtmospheric of Number of Megafires falling into different FIBA categories with Sweden fire belonging inTop12. belonging fire withSweden categories FIBA falling different Megafires into of Number Sandahl (ECMWF) is to be thanked for his assistance on running hourly Long DA & Cubic & DA Long hourly his assistance running for thanked on be (ECMWF)is to (d) and , Andres As in (a) but for the rest of Mediterranean (RMEDI) countries. (RMEDI) countries. Mediterranean of rest the in(a)for As but , Francesca Di GiuseppeFrancesca , (c) (e) Sala (b) (1) Fire behaviour and fire prediction reliability prediction andfire behaviour categories. [2]Fire CHIbased “extremity” on Harsmar Diamantakis Percentage of CHI values falling into different “extremity” categories for northern Europe (NORE). (NORE). Europe northern for categories CHI values “extremity” of falling different into Percentage

Details of FIBA for Sweden Megafire. Megafire. Sweden Detailsfor FIBA of (g) (a)

Olof Paper RMRS-RP-4 Revised. Ogden, UT: U.S. DoA, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Research Mountain Rocky Service, Forest DoA, U.S. UT: Revised. Ogden, RMRS-RP-4 Paper Amer. Meteor. Soc. (exact copy of the the of copy (exact Soc. Meteor. Amer. Cyclones. Extratropical Symposium Memorial on Palmen available picture http://www.wxonline.info/topics/jetstream.html). from (ISSN Science, Computer Procedia wildfireinEurope. large prediction behaviour for drivenmodel 1877–0509),ElsevierICCS2013. Science. European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). in: J. Tiefenbacher (Ed.), Approaches to Managing Managing to (Ed.), Approaches Tiefenbacher J. System(EFFIS).in: Information Fire Forest European 10.5772/28441.5.doi: DisasterCh. AssessingandDisaster- Hazards,Emergencies Impacts, InTech, 2013_tasmanian_bushfires_inquiry_report. FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator–model development and evaluation. Research andevaluation.Research development Simulator–model Area Fire 2004. FARSITE: M.A., Finney 119. No. Newsletter ECMWF gusts. convective Bidlot,of 2009. andJ-R. P. Parametrization Bechtold Uccellini L.W., 1990. Processes contributing to the rapid development of extratropical cyclones. extratropical rapidof development the to 1990. Uccellinicontributing L.W., Processes 2013. data- Miguel-Ayanz, A San andJ. A. Cortes M., Di D., Leo Rigo de D., Rodriguez-Aseretto 2013http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/osem/ Tasmanian Bushfires InquiryReport San-Miguel-Ayanz J. and c-authors, 2012. Comprehensive Monitoring of Wildfires in Europe: The The Wildfires of inEurope: 2012. Monitoring andc-authors, Comprehensive J. San-Miguel-Ayanz

Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Michael GustFactors. simulations Model Haines & of Index high-resolution Per- Leif (SMHI) Institute & “blow-up” Megafire Sweden to relating criticalinvaluableobtaining information data & on support 2014. 4 August place on taken event [5] [6] [3] [4] References References [1] [2] It is also obvious from (h) that during the “blow-up”day (Day CHIthe 5) during both (h)that isIt also obvious from values.(“saturated”) extreme getting (FWI)Index [1] were Weather andFire From Figure 2 (f) it becomes clear that that more than 80% of the total total the 80% of than more that that 2clear (f) itbecomes Figure From CHI. of categories extremity istop fallingtwo inthe large of number fires likely than that itseems more significantlyBasedsuch on percentage, high large lowstabilitythe of accompanied fires most hadbeen conditions last sixthe years. during atmosphere. A fire blow-up would lead to erratic / extreme fire behavior. behavior. fire extreme / erratic blow-up wouldlead to fire A atmosphere. frequency details of various FIBA categories for large fires (Megafires) from from (Megafires) large for detailsfires categories various FIBA of frequency Database (EFD) Fire European the 20092014 to from taken Information Fires Forest (d) givenin(c)respectively. & System(EFFIS) [1] are HIHaines (CHI) (HI)Both Index [2] andContinuous giveindication an about lowstability to due "blow- up” values the of afire for potential the Data & Methodology Details( estimated FIBA of variability in(b). Inter-annual shown and are blow-up event details the of

between 14 of daysin40 yearswithaduration (31 July largest Sweden's the be wildfire dry unusualspellan hot, after of out broke 2014). fire 13 August to The innorthern weather summer anational was declared fire The Europe. ~15,000 of hectares. emergency.finallyIt area encompassed an During the past years, there has been a considerable number of occasions of aconsiderablenumber has been pastthere years, the During burns fire aforest that of out seems far intensity that strong withsuch burning apparent to proportion case for the be to Thisproved conditions. 2014. 4place August during took “blow-up”that fire Sweden the afternoon the On border the on out broke 31 Thursday 2014 July of awildfire Introduction Introduction but for central Europe (CENE). Europe central for but over the centroid of Megafire. Valuesspanning 30 are years(1980Megafire. of 2009).values also plotted. to Megafire are centroid FWI CHI & the over (a) Figure 2. (a) Greece (MMEDI). Greece countries. countries. fires during 2009 firesduring 2014. to Figure 1. (a)

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www.jrc.ec.europa.eu www.jrc.ec.europa.eu Thomas I. Petroliagkis I. Thomas