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NOAA's NWS Fire Weather Program

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NOAA's NWS Fire Weather Program NOAA’sNOAA’s NWSNWS FireFire WeatherWeather ProgramProgram RhettRhett MilneMilne WCM/WCM/ IMETIMET NationalNational WeatherWeather ServiceService Reno,Reno, NNVV weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire Partners •• FederalFederal LandLand AgenciesAgencies –– USFS,USFS, BLM,BLM, NPS,NPS, BIA,BIA, FWSFWS •• StateState AgenciesAgencies –– ParksParks andand ForestryForestry DepartmentsDepartments •• LocalLocal AgenciesAgencies –– County,County, CityCity andand VolunteerVolunteer FireFire DepartmentsDepartments weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service NOAA’sNOAA’s NWSNWS RoleRole inin FireFire •• “…protection“…protection ofof lifelife andand propertyproperty andand thethe enhancementenhancement ofof thethe nationalnational economy.economy. ““ •• FireFire WeatherWeather ForecastsForecasts areare issuedissued forfor firefighterfirefighter andand publicpublic safetysafety andand thethe protectionprotection ofof homeshomes andand businessesbusinesses.. weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service LargeLarge FiresFires ofof thethe lastlast 55 yearsyears TheseThese areare allall thethe largestlargest FiresFires inin thesethese statesstates recordedrecorded historieshistories •• Rodeo-ChediskiRodeo-Chediski FireFire (Arizona)(Arizona) 20022002 •• BiscuitBiscuit FireFire (Oregon)(Oregon) 20022002 •• HaymanHayman FireFire (Colorado)(Colorado) 20022002 •• CedarCedar FireFire (California)(California) 20032003 •• TaylorTaylor ComplexComplex (Alaska)(Alaska) 20042004 weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service Rodeo-ChedeskiRodeo-Chedeski FireFire •• TwoTwo massivemassive firesfires mergemerge togethertogether •• ChediskiChediski FireFire startedstarted asas aa signalsignal firefire fromfrom lostlost hikerhiker •• 462,614462,614 acresacres •• 426426 structuresstructures lostlost •• $153$153 million dollarsdollars toto fightfight weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service HaymanHayman FireFire ColoradoColorado •• ArsonArson CausedCaused (Forest(Forest ServiceService Worker)Worker) •• 138,000138,000 acres burnedburned •• 132132 homes destroyeddestroyed •• $240$240 Million toto fightfight •• 33 killed en route toto itit •• 3030 milesmiles SWSW ofof DenverDenver weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service BiscuitBiscuit FireFire OregonOregon -- JJuly,uly, Aug,Aug, Sept,Sept, Oct,Oct, NovNov •• LightningLightning causedcaused •• 499,965499,965 acres burnedburned •• BurnedBurned forfor 120120 daysdays •• 44 homes destroyeddestroyed •• $123$123 million toto fightfight weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service CedarCedar FireFire •• 280,293280,293 acresacres •• LostLost HunterHunter lightedlighted aa signalsignal firefire •• 2,2322,232 homes destroyed •• 1414 killedkilled •• ~~ $100-200 millionmillion weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service TheseThese 44 FiresFires CombinedCombined •• ~~ 1.41.4 millionmillion acresacres (roughly(roughly ½½ ssizeize ofof Connecticut)Connecticut) •• ~~ 30003000 homeshomes destroyeddestroyed •• ~~ $600-$700$600-$700 millionmillion toto fightfight (federal(federal budgetbudget forfor annualannual wildlandwildland firefightingfirefighting isis ~~ $400-500$400-500 million)million) •• 90,00090,000 firesfires perper yearyear averageaverage •• 33 outout ofof 44 werewere stupidstupid humanhuman trickstricks (arson(arson andand lostlost hikers)hikers) weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service AlaskaAlaska LargeLarge FiresFires 20042004 •• 1,305,2521,305,252 acresacres inin justjust thethe TaylorTaylor ComplexComplex weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service DoesDoes SizeSize Matter? •• OctoberOctober 19911991 •• OaklandOakland HillsHills FireFire (California)(California) •• 2525 KilledKilled •• 2,9002,900 StructuresStructures DestroyedDestroyed •• $1.5$1.5 BillionBillion inin damagesdamages •• 1,5001,500 acres!!!acres!!! weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service WeatherWeather isis thethe mostmost variable!!variable!! weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SlopeSlope EffectsEffects weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SlopeSlope EffectsEffects weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SlopeSlope AspectAspect weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service NOAA’sNOAA’s NWSNWS FireFire ServicesServices •• FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts (FWF)(FWF) •• RedRed FlagFlag Warnings/FireWarnings/Fire WeatherWeather WatchesWatches (RFW)(RFW) •• SpotSpot WeatherWeather ForecastsForecasts –– WiWildfldfiires,res, RxRx Burns,Burns, HAZMATHAZMAT •• NFDRSNFDRS TrendTrend ForecastsForecasts –– NationalNational FireFire DangerDanger RatingRating SystemSystem •• IncidentIncident MeteorologistsMeteorologists (IMET)(IMET) •• DigitalDigital ServicesServices weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts •• IssuedIssued at least 2 times per day during fire season. –– 7:307:30 amam && 3:303:30 pmpm •• HeadlineHeadline -- RReded FlagFlag Warning/OtherWarning/Other •• Discussion-ClearDiscussion-Clear andand Concise:Concise: TheThe WHY!!!WHY!!! •• ForecastForecast (today,(today, tonight,tonight, tomorrow)tomorrow) -Sky/Weather-Sky/Weather -Temps-Temps (valley(valley floorfloor andand mid-slope)mid-slope) -Relative-Relative HumidityHumidity -Wind-Wind (valley/slope(valley/slope andand ridgetops)ridgetops) -Lightning-Lightning ActivityActivity LevelLevel (LAL)(LAL) -Haines-Haines IndexIndex -Transport-Transport WindWind -Mixing-Mixing HeightHeight -Ventilation-Ventilation IndexIndex -Chance-Chance ofof WettingWetting RainRain (( >> 0.10")0.10") -Extended-Extended forecastforecast (days(days 3-7)3-7) -Outlook-Outlook (days(days 8-14)8-14) weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service MixingMixing HeightHeight •• MH-MH- tthehe heightheight aboveabove thethe surfacesurface throughthrough whichwhich relativelyrelatively vigorousvigorous mixingmixing willwill taketake placeplace duedue toto convectionconvection •• -- MMHH == HowHow highhigh willwill thethe smokesmoke columncolumn riserise weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service TransportTransport WindWind weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service TerrainTerrain WindsWinds weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service HainesHaines IndexIndex •• AnAn indexindex toto categorizecategorize thethe potentialpotential forfor largelarge firefire growthgrowth (plume(plume dominateddominated fire)fire) •• DoesDoes notnot taketake intointo accountaccount wind!!!wind!!! •• HainesHaines IndexIndex == stabilitystability termterm ++ moisturemoisture termterm •• HainesHaines IndexIndex valuesvalues rangerange fromfrom 22 toto 66 •• HighHigh valuesvalues (5(5 oror 6)6) indicateindicate dry,dry, unstableunstable airair •• LowLow valuesvalues (2(2 oror 3)3) indicateindicate moist,moist, stablestable airair weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts Narrative Format – Western States .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE: 4000 FEET.......90-100. 7000 FEET.......75-85. 24 HR TREND.....DOWN 5 DEGREES MIN HUMIDITY: 4000 FEET.......10-15 PERCENT. 7000 FEET.......15-20 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND.....UP 5 PERCENT WIND (SLOPE/VALLEY=20 FT, 10 MIN AVG): SLOPE/VALLEY....UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 MPH BY 2 PM 10000 FT MSL....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)....5 PERCENT. LAL.................2. HAINES INDEX........6. MIXING HEIGHT.......18000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS. VENTILATION.........EXCELLENT. weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service ThermalThermal BeltsBelts weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts Tabular Format – Central and Eastern States TODAY TONIGHT TUE CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 20 TEMP (24H TREND) 70 (-1) 36 (-4) 61 RH % (24H TREND) 22 (-1) 72 (+9) 43 20FTWND-AM(MPH) W 11 LGT/VAR 20FTWND-PM(MPH) W 6 LGT/VAR N 5 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)7409 11580 TRANSPORT WND (KTS) SW 10 SE 7 HAINES INDEX VERY LOW VERY LOW VERY LOW weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service RedRed FlagFlag ConditionsConditions •• AA criticalcritical weatherweather patternpattern thatthat couldcould leadlead toto thethe occurrenceoccurrence ofof extremeextreme firefire behaviorbehavior oror numerousnumerous firesfires starts.starts. •• AnyAny weatherweather conditionsconditions thatthat posepose aa dangerdanger toto firefighterfirefighter safety.safety. •• RequiresRequires thethe combinationcombination ofof receptivereceptive fuelsfuels andand aa criticalcritical firefire weatherweather pattern.pattern. –– LowLow RHRH andand GustyGusty WindsWinds –– DryDry LightningLightning weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather WatchWatch •• UsedUsed toto alertalert firefire managementmanagement agenciesagencies forfor thethe possiblepossible developmentdevelopment ofof aa RedRed FlagFlag Event.Event. •• IssuedIssued whenwhen thethe forecasterforecaster hashas reasonablereasonable confidenceconfidence thatthat thethe criticalcritical weatherweather conditionsconditions willwill develop.develop. •• WatchWatch issuedissued betweenbetween 24-7224-72 hourshours inin advanceadvance ofof thethe expectedexpected onsetonset ofof thethe event.event. •• WatchWatch maymay bebe issuedissued withinwithin 12-hours12-hours forfor possiblepossible DryDry LightningLightning eventsevents only.only. weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service REDRED FLAGFLAG WARNINGWARNING •• UpgradeUpgrade ofof aa WatchWatch
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