NOAA’sNOAA’s NWSNWS FireFire WeatherWeather ProgramProgram

RhettRhett MilneMilne WCM/WCM/ IMETIMET NationalNational WeatherWeather ServiceService Reno,Reno, NNVV

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire Partners

•• FederalFederal LandLand AgenciesAgencies –– USFS,USFS, BLM,BLM, NPS,NPS, BIA,BIA, FWSFWS •• StateState AgenciesAgencies –– ParksParks andand ForestryForestry DepartmentsDepartments •• LocalLocal AgenciesAgencies –– County,County, CityCity andand VolunteerVolunteer FireFire DepartmentsDepartments

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service NOAA’sNOAA’s NWSNWS RoleRole inin FireFire

•• “…protection“…protection ofof lifelife andand propertyproperty andand thethe enhancementenhancement ofof thethe nationalnational economy.economy. ““ •• FireFire WeatherWeather ForecastsForecasts areare issuedissued forfor firefighterfirefighter andand publicpublic safetysafety andand thethe protectionprotection ofof homeshomes andand businessesbusinesses..

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service LargeLarge FiresFires ofof thethe lastlast 55 yearsyears

TheseThese areare allall thethe largestlargest FiresFires inin thesethese statesstates recordedrecorded historieshistories

•• Rodeo-ChediskiRodeo-Chediski FireFire (Arizona)(Arizona) 20022002 •• BiscuitBiscuit FireFire (Oregon)(Oregon) 20022002 •• HaymanHayman FireFire (Colorado)(Colorado) 20022002 •• CedarCedar FireFire (California)(California) 20032003 •• TaylorTaylor ComplexComplex (Alaska)(Alaska) 20042004

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service Rodeo-ChedeskiRodeo-Chedeski FireFire

•• TwoTwo massivemassive firesfires mergemerge togethertogether •• ChediskiChediski FireFire startedstarted asas aa signalsignal firefire fromfrom lostlost hikerhiker

•• 462,614462,614 acresacres

•• 426426 structuresstructures lostlost

•• $153$153 million dollarsdollars toto fightfight

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service HaymanHayman FireFire ColoradoColorado

•• ArsonArson CausedCaused (Forest(Forest ServiceService Worker)Worker)

•• 138,000138,000 acres burnedburned •• 132132 homes destroyeddestroyed •• $240$240 Million toto fightfight •• 33 killed en route toto itit •• 3030 milesmiles SWSW ofof DenverDenver

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service BiscuitBiscuit FireFire

OregonOregon -- JJuly,uly, Aug,Aug, Sept,Sept, Oct,Oct, NovNov

•• LightningLightning causedcaused •• 499,965499,965 acres burnedburned •• BurnedBurned forfor 120120 daysdays •• 44 homes destroyeddestroyed •• $123$123 million toto fightfight

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service CedarCedar FireFire

•• 280,293280,293 acresacres •• LostLost HunterHunter lightedlighted aa signalsignal firefire •• 2,2322,232 homes destroyed •• 1414 killedkilled •• ~~ $100-200 millionmillion

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service TheseThese 44 FiresFires CombinedCombined

•• ~~ 1.41.4 millionmillion acresacres (roughly(roughly ½½ ssizeize ofof Connecticut)Connecticut) •• ~~ 30003000 homeshomes destroyeddestroyed •• ~~ $600-$700$600-$700 millionmillion toto fightfight (federal(federal budgetbudget forfor annualannual wildlandwildland firefightingfirefighting isis ~~ $400-500$400-500 million)million) •• 90,00090,000 firesfires perper yearyear averageaverage •• 33 outout ofof 44 werewere stupidstupid humanhuman trickstricks (arson(arson andand lostlost hikers)hikers)

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service AlaskaAlaska LargeLarge FiresFires 20042004

•• 1,305,2521,305,252 acresacres inin justjust thethe TaylorTaylor ComplexComplex

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service DoesDoes SizeSize Matter?

•• OctoberOctober 19911991 •• OaklandOakland HillsHills FireFire (California)(California) •• 2525 KilledKilled •• 2,9002,900 StructuresStructures DestroyedDestroyed •• $1.5$1.5 BillionBillion inin damagesdamages •• 1,5001,500 acres!!!acres!!!

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service WeatherWeather isis thethe mostmost variable!!variable!!

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SlopeSlope EffectsEffects

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SlopeSlope EffectsEffects

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SlopeSlope AspectAspect

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service NOAA’sNOAA’s NWSNWS FireFire ServicesServices

•• FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts (FWF)(FWF) •• RedRed FlagFlag Warnings/FireWarnings/Fire WeatherWeather WatchesWatches (RFW)(RFW) •• SpotSpot WeatherWeather ForecastsForecasts –– WiWildfldfiires,res, RxRx Burns,Burns, HAZMATHAZMAT •• NFDRSNFDRS TrendTrend ForecastsForecasts –– NationalNational FireFire DangerDanger RatingRating SystemSystem •• IncidentIncident MeteorologistsMeteorologists (IMET)(IMET) •• DigitalDigital ServicesServices

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts

•• IssuedIssued at least 2 times per day during fire season. –– 7:307:30 amam && 3:303:30 pmpm •• HeadlineHeadline -- RReded FlagFlag Warning/OtherWarning/Other •• Discussion-ClearDiscussion-Clear andand Concise:Concise: TheThe WHY!!!WHY!!! •• ForecastForecast (today,(today, tonight,tonight, tomorrow)tomorrow) -Sky/Weather-Sky/Weather -Temps-Temps (valley(valley floorfloor andand mid-slope)mid-slope) -Relative-Relative HumidityHumidity -Wind-Wind (valley/slope(valley/slope andand ridgetops)ridgetops) -Lightning-Lightning ActivityActivity LevelLevel (LAL)(LAL) -Haines-Haines IndexIndex -Transport-Transport WindWind -Mixing-Mixing HeightHeight -Ventilation-Ventilation IndexIndex -Chance-Chance ofof WettingWetting RainRain (( >> 0.10")0.10") -Extended-Extended forecastforecast (days(days 3-7)3-7) -Outlook-Outlook (days(days 8-14)8-14) weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service MixingMixing HeightHeight

•• MH-MH- tthehe heightheight aboveabove thethe surfacesurface throughthrough whichwhich relativelyrelatively vigorousvigorous mixingmixing willwill taketake placeplace duedue toto convectionconvection

•• -- MMHH == HowHow highhigh willwill thethe smokesmoke columncolumn riserise weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service TransportTransport WindWind

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service TerrainTerrain WindsWinds

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service HainesHaines IndexIndex

•• AnAn indexindex toto categorizecategorize thethe potentialpotential forfor largelarge firefire growthgrowth (plume(plume dominateddominated fire)fire) •• DoesDoes notnot taketake intointo accountaccount wind!!!wind!!!

•• HainesHaines IndexIndex == stabilitystability termterm ++ moisturemoisture termterm

•• HainesHaines IndexIndex valuesvalues rangerange fromfrom 22 toto 66 •• HighHigh valuesvalues (5(5 oror 6)6) indicateindicate dry,dry, unstableunstable airair •• LowLow valuesvalues (2(2 oror 3)3) indicateindicate moist,moist, stablestable airair

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts Narrative Format – Western States .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER...... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE: 4000 FEET...... 90-100. 7000 FEET...... 75-85. 24 HR TREND.....DOWN 5 DEGREES MIN HUMIDITY: 4000 FEET...... 10-15 PERCENT. 7000 FEET...... 15-20 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND.....UP 5 PERCENT WIND (SLOPE/VALLEY=20 FT, 10 MIN AVG): SLOPE/VALLEY....UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 MPH BY 2 PM 10000 FT MSL....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT. CWR (>= 0.10 IN)....5 PERCENT. LAL...... 2. HAINES INDEX...... 6. MIXING HEIGHT...... 18000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS. VENTILATION...... EXCELLENT. weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service ThermalThermal BeltsBelts

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather PlanningPlanning ForecastsForecasts

Tabular Format – Central and Eastern States

TODAY TONIGHT TUE

CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE TSTMS CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 20 TEMP (24H TREND) 70 (-1) 36 (-4) 61 RH % (24H TREND) 22 (-1) 72 (+9) 43 20FTWND-AM(MPH) W 11 LGT/VAR 20FTWND-PM(MPH) W 6 LGT/VAR N 5 MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)7409 11580 TRANSPORT WND (KTS) SW 10 SE 7 HAINES INDEX VERY LOW VERY LOW VERY LOW

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service RedRed FlagFlag ConditionsConditions

•• AA criticalcritical weatherweather patternpattern thatthat couldcould leadlead toto thethe occurrenceoccurrence ofof extremeextreme firefire behaviorbehavior oror numerousnumerous firesfires starts.starts. •• AnyAny weatherweather conditionsconditions thatthat posepose aa dangerdanger toto firefighterfirefighter safety.safety. •• RequiresRequires thethe combinationcombination ofof receptivereceptive fuelsfuels andand aa criticalcritical firefire weatherweather pattern.pattern. –– LowLow RHRH andand GustyGusty WindsWinds –– DryDry LightningLightning

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire WeatherWeather WatchWatch

•• UsedUsed toto alertalert firefire managementmanagement agenciesagencies forfor thethe possiblepossible developmentdevelopment ofof aa RedRed FlagFlag Event.Event. •• IssuedIssued whenwhen thethe forecasterforecaster hashas reasonablereasonable confidenceconfidence thatthat thethe criticalcritical weatherweather conditionsconditions willwill develop.develop. •• WatchWatch issuedissued betweenbetween 24-7224-72 hourshours inin advanceadvance ofof thethe expectedexpected onsetonset ofof thethe event.event. •• WatchWatch maymay bebe issuedissued withinwithin 12-hours12-hours forfor possiblepossible DryDry LightningLightning eventsevents only.only.

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service REDRED FLAGFLAG WARNINGWARNING

•• UpgradeUpgrade ofof aa WatchWatch oror issuedissued asas is.is. •• IssuedIssued whenwhen RedRed FlagFlag conditionsconditions areare occurringoccurring oror whenwhen therethere isis aa highhigh degreedegree ofof confidenceconfidence thatthat RedRed FlagFlag conditionsconditions willwill occuroccur withinwithin 24-hours.24-hours.

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service ClickableClickable MapMap forfor FWFFWF andand RFWRFW

http://fire.boi.noaa.gov/

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SpotSpot WeatherWeather ForecastForecast

•• SiteSite specific forecasts requested by user agenciesagencies inin supportsupport ofof wildfires,wildfires, prescribedprescribed burns,burns, HAZMATHAZMAT incidents,incidents, HomelandHomeland Security,Security, oror otherother relatedrelated emergencyemergency response.response.

•• AvailableAvailable 24-hours a day: 365 days a year

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service SpotSpot WeatherWeather ForecastForecast ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...

DISCUSSION...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT WILL END BY 1800 THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE FIRE FOR SUNDAY.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON WEATHER...... PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1800. TEMPERATURE...... 94-98 LOWER SLOPES TO 80-84 RIDGE HUMIDITY...... 10-13% LOWER SLOPES TO 19-23% RIDGE WIND...20 FOOT.....WEST 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH

FOR TONIGHT WEATHER...... MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE...... MIN 59-63 HUMIDITY...... MAX 35-40% LOWER SLOPES TO 50% RIDGE WIND...20 FOOT.....WEST 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 3-5 MPH AFTER 2200.

OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW WEATHER...... MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE...... MAX 92-95 HUMIDITY...... MIN 9-12% LOWER SLOPES TO 17-20% RIDGE WIND...20 FOOT.....UPSLOPE 4-8 MPH BECOMING 10-15 MPH AFTER 1400 WITH GUSTS TO 27 MPH. weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service NFDRS-NFDRS- SiteSite ForecastForecast

•• ForecastForecast ofof weatherweather elements expectedpected thethe followingfollowing dayday atat aa specificspecific locationlocation (temp,(temp, wind,wind, RH,RH, precip,precip, LAL)LAL)

•• UsUsed by firefire agenciesagencies toto determinedetermine potentialpotential firefire severity....Staffing.severity....Staffing.

•• WhatWhat typestypes ofof resourcesresources areare neededneeded ifif aa firefire werewere toto breakbreak out.out. SendSend groundground crewscrews oror airair attack?attack?

•• HelpsHelps determinedetermine “Smokey Bear”Bear” FFireire DangerDanger Ratings....Ratings....Low,Low, MediumMedium,, HighHigh,, ExtremeExtreme

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service IncidentIncident MeteorologistMeteorologist (IMET)(IMET)

•• On-SiteOn-Site MeteorologistsMeteorologists –– HiHighlyghly trainedtrained •• SatelliteSatellite dishesdishes andand laptopslaptops thatthat allowallow themthem toto gogo anywhereanywhere inin thethe countrycountry withoutwithout thethe needneed ofof aa phonephone lineline •• TypicallyTypically sentsent toto largelarge wildfireswildfires toto helphelp FireFire BehaviorBehavior AnalystAnalyst predictpredict whatwhat thethe firefire isis goinggoing toto dodo

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service IncidentIncident MeteorologistMeteorologist (IMET)(IMET) •• WorksWorks withwith FireFire BehaviorBehavior AnalystAnalyst (FBAN)(FBAN) •• WeatherWeather combinedcombined withwith fuelsfuels andand topographytopography dictatedictate firefire behaviorbehavior •• FBAN’sFBAN’s runrun FireFire BehaviorBehavior modelsmodels toto helphelp determinedetermine howhow toto bestbest fightfight thethe firefire

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service RemoteRemote AutomatedAutomated WeatherWeather StationsStations

•• RAWSRAWS •• UsedUsed toto monitormonitor conditionsconditions inin remoteremote locationslocations •• RedRed FlagFlag ConditionsConditions •• FuelFuel ConditionsConditions •• SpotSpot ForecastsForecasts •• RxRx BurnsBurns •• PrecipitationPrecipitation

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service FireFire RAWSRAWS

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service DigitalDigital ServicesServices

•• NationalNational DigitalDigital ForecastForecast DatabaseDatabase –– weather.gov/ndfdweather.gov/ndfd •• ForecastForecast databasedatabase hashas moremore applicationsapplications thanthan aa texttext forecast.forecast. –– GISGIS ApplicationsApplications –– GraphicsGraphics SoftwareSoftware –– ForecastForecast ImagesImages –– LimitlessLimitless ComputingComputing applicationsapplications

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service DigitalDigital ServicesServices

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service Interface similar to NDFD web page.

More detail since you can view the forecast on the local level.

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service WeatherWeather PlannerPlanner

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service WeatherWeather PlannerPlanner

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service AnticipatingAnticipating FireFire SeveritySeverity

•• HelpHelp prepareprepare firefire agenciesagencies forfor thethe upcomingupcoming seasonseason byby interpretinginterpreting andand briefingbriefing themthem on:on:

•• SnowpackSnowpack

•• BasinBasin WideWide PrecipitationPrecipitation

•• SnowSnow WaterWater EquivalentEquivalent

•• AnnuAnnualal ClimateClimate patterns (El Nino/LaNino/La Nina)Nina)

•• TemperatureTemperature AnomaliesAnomalies

•• PastPast Seasons-Seasons- DroughtDrought

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service CommentsComments oror Questions?Questions?

•• [email protected]@noaa.gov

weather.gov NOAA National Weather Service