As GOP Dominates, Dems Seek Answers Indiana Super Majorities Expand, Battleground Shifts from South to North; Democrats Regionalized by BRIAN A
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V20, N14 Thursday Nov. 6, 2014 As GOP dominates, Dems seek answers Indiana super majorities expand, battleground shifts from south to north; Democrats regionalized By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – If you’re an Indiana Republican, the party’s emphatic suc- Democratic Party has been regionalized to Lake and St. cess on Tuesday was due to the historic female statewide Joseph counties, Indianapolis and a handful of college and ticket, U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski’s fundraising prowess and university cities. It no longer has a state senator in South- decision to spend and message early, and the towering ern Indiana south of Mark Stoops in Bloomington with the money advantage that extended from the congressional loss of Richard Young to Republican Erin Houchin, and the delegation to the House and Senate campaigns that ex- retirement of Lindel Hume with State Rep. Mark Messmer panded super majorities to 111 of the 150 legislative seats winning that seat. and eight out of 11 federal seats. The only Democratic House members south of U.S. In a stunning transformation, the legislative 50 are Reps. Terry Goodin in Crothersville, Gail Riecken battleground has now shifted from Southern Indiana to the Chicago media market, where four Lake County legislative seats are now held by Republicans. Essentially, the Indiana Continued on page 4 ‘16 will be very different By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Two years from now, Indiana will be in a completely different place than it is during this moribund 2014 election cycle that was all about the status quo. The state will be im- “We think we’ve done a good job mersed in its bicentennial celebration. Hoosiers will be with the city. We’ve been tackling pondering votes for president, big stuff. It’s a good time for governor, attorney general, superintendent of public instruc- Winnie and me to step aside.” tion, a U.S. Senate seat and all of the congressional seats. - Indianapolis Mayor Greg Voters will have had four years Ballard, after saying he won’t to gauge the work of Gov. Mike Pence and a decade of policy seek a third term. from Gov. Mitch Daniels. We’ll have a better grasp of how Page 2 Obamacare is working. There could likely to assume the pole position if very well be two competitive presiden- Bush and Romney decline. The New tial primaries here, and possibly one Jersey governor would have potential involving Mike Pence. When the veep- wide and deep support with Indiana stakes rolls around in the summer of Republicans ranging from financier 2016, we may be hearing the familiar Bob Grand to Rep. Brooks. But Christie names (Daniels, Pence and Bayh) and is volatile, as his “Shut up!” episode perhaps the new (Joe Donnelly and last week revealed and he has chal- Susan Brooks). lenges within his state that could In short, where the 2014 cycle compromise his candidacy. is a non-partisan newslet- featured only a few dramatic legisla- Let’s say that Bush and ter based in Indianapolis and tive races, mostly in areas along the Romney don’t run, and Christie fails Nashville, Ind. It was founded edges of the state, 2016 will offer to catch fire by next May. That’s when in 1994 in Fort Wayne. a full array of options, judgments, Gov. Pence will gather family and potential populism and competitive close friends and allies, survey the na- It is published by races. As boring as 2014 proved to tional landscape and make a call that WWWHowey Media, LLC be and verified by near historic low could thrust him into a national orbit. 405 Massachusetts Ave., turnout, 2016 lends us the promise of There will be others, such as the U.S. Suite 300 Indianapolis, IN a 1968 or a 2008. Senate trio of Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and 46204 What we don’t know is wheth- Marco Rubio, and a couple of other er in the next two years a charismatic governors. But Pence has potential figure arises like Robert F. Kennedy access and allies within the Koch Brian A. Howey, Publisher did in 1968 or Barack Obama six years Brothers empire, has conservative Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington ago. Obama is now mired in a job policy bona fides, and has a sunny, Jack E. Howey, Editor approval in the lower 40th percentile, non-threatening personality palatable Mary Lou Howey, Editor and while Republicans won the Sen- to many GOP constituencies. No, he ate, congressional approval is at epic is not showing up in the early presi- Maureen Hayden, Statehouse lows, more gridlock widely predicted, dential polls, but neither was Jimmy Matthew Butler, Daily Wire and neither major party appears to be Carter in 1974 and Bill Clinton in 1990. on track to offer a new dynamic where The most curious thing about Pence is Subscriptions big things get done, protracted prob- that his team keeps him under wraps HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 lems are solved, and Americans return from the media, limiting the exposure to the days when they believe their of Pence’s greatest asset, his person- HPI Weekly, $350 children and grandkids will have more ality. Ray Volpe, Account Manager opportunities and a better life than we On the Republican side, there 317.602.3620 did. are so many moving parts and no email: [email protected] There is so much work to do, clear heir apparent. Even a Bush can- so many thing to occur for the 2016 didacy could blow up, so this will be script to emerge. But here’s a quick a fascinating chapter. As for Clinton, Contact HPI rundown of what could occur to make she appears to be the heir apparent, www.howeypolitics.com it an epic two years: but she was in 2008 when Obama [email protected] President: For the next eclipsed her. The liberal wing of the Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 two months, all eyes will be on four party is concerned about her Iraq war Washington: 202.256.5822 individuals, Hillary Clinton for the vote, her close ties to Wall Street, and the conduct of her greatest asset/li- Business Office: 317.602.3620 Democrats, and for the Republicans, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, New Jersey ability, husband and former President Gov. Chris Christie and in the Indiana Bill Clinton. If Hillary doesn’t go or © 2014, Howey Politics Indiana. context, Gov. Pence. Clinton appears under performs as she did in 2007-08, All rights reserved. Photocopy- poised to take the plunge and Jeb all eyes will be on U.S. Sen. Elizabeth ing, Internet forwarding, fax- Bush looks like a 50-50 proposition Warren, Vice President Biden or a new face like Maryland Gov. Martin ing or reproducing in any form, at this point, but there is a distinct scenario where Americans could face O’Malley. whole or part, is a violation of a second Clinton v. Bush presidential Indiana governor: federal law without permission race. Romney is repeatedly begging Pence and his team have told HPI that from the publisher. off. In this scenario, Christie could be he is taking all the necessary steps positioned to be the Republican most toward a reelection bid, and without Page 3 Evan Bayh in the picture, he would be a clear frontrun- day morning, “Just who would call a summit and who ner. But there is the presidential scenario that his closest would attend?” confidants refuse to slam the door on. So Pence will con- U.S. Senate: U.S. Sen. Dan Coats is expected centrate on the upcoming biennial budget session of the to seek another term. Most see this as virtually 100% now General Assembly, then assess his options next May after that Republicans have taken the Senate majority. Coats sine die. He has staked his first term on an array of tax doesn’t appear to be facing a Tea Party challenge as Sen. cuts and workforce development options that by 2016 will Dick Lugar did in 2012. Coats has engaged the Tea Party have matured into an assessment zone. Republican legisla- tribes consistently since he resurfaced in 2010. Coats is 71 tive leaders put the brakes on some of Pence’s tax desires, years old and a health issue is always a potential at that so he is not likely to face the kind of blowback that Kansas age. Gov. Sam Brownback has this year, even though the two If Coats doesn’t run, most of the Indiana congres- worked off very similar campaign and policy fronts. sional delegation would entertain a run. Most Republicans Indiana has the $2 billion surplus, which could be HPI has talked with see Reps. Brooks and Young as best a positive for positioned should that occur. For Democrats, Pence or liabil- the most likely scenario is for either Gregg, ity. His biggest Hill or McDermott to opt into the Senate race, problem could with Gregg and Hill the best positioned for be the war his that possibility. Other Democrats who might administration consider would be South Bend Mayor Peter has fought with Buttigieg and Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight. Supt. Glenda Congress: The entire congressional Ritz, who will delegation will be sitting on huge war chests, run and could as U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski was the only reactivate her one to face a serious challenge. Rep. Marlin grassroots Stutzman had $608,000 cash on hand, Todd support, and Rokita $1.17 million, Susan Brooks $907,000, declining per- Luke Messer $534,000, Larry Bucshon capita income. $543,000 and Todd Young with $931,000. A report out of Govs.