LESSON 3 Russia and the Republics

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magine this: You’ve landed a job with your QuickQuick WriteWrite congressman. Mostly you just answer the phones. IBut the conversations you overhear—or even get to take part in!—make you feel as if you’re at the center of the world. Your boss is young; he’s only in his second term. But he’s been named to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and he’s In general, is it a good idea to stick with the map thrilled. He’s looking for an issue where he can make a name for you’ve got? Or under special himself. And you think you know what he’s going to settle on. circumstances, such as It’s something a lot of constituents have been calling about. the Soviet Union’s collapse, is some reassignment One part of your district has a lot of older people from Eastern of territory in order? Europe and places that used to be part of the Soviet Union. They want your boss to push to get the United States to recognize a new country over there. It’s a little strip of land on the other side of one of the big rivers—someplace way on the other side of Romania. You’ve never quite gotten the name. LearnLearn AboutAbout Members of the congressman’s staff keep kicking the idea around. Would this be a good thing for the congressman to • the political and economic support? Would it be good for the United States? Would it be infl uence of Russia good for the people who live along that river in Eastern Europe? on the Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova A nice guy from the State Department dropped by to talk the other day. He was all business in his blue suit. He tried to • the political and economic infl uence of Russia seem nonchalant. But he obviously didn’t think US recognition on the Baltic States of this new little country was a good idea. “Stability,” he kept • the political and economic saying, “we diplomats like stability. To recognize that territory’s infl uence of Russia independence will only make our allies mad and increase on Armenia, Georgia, ethnic tensions there. It might even lead to war. We like to and Azerbaijan stick with the map we’ve got.” • the political and economic infl uence of Russia But that nice older man from the district, who’s been so on Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, helpful to your boss, happened to be in Washington that week, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, in your offi ce in fact. When he heard the man from State talk and Turkmenistan about “stability,” you thought he was going to blow a gasket. You saw him take a deep breath, walk over, and say, “The map of the Soviet Union is the map that Stalin drew. He’s gone now. The Communists are all gone. We can draw a better map.”

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 410 11/10/09 11:13 AM The Political and Economic Inﬂ uence of Russia VocabularyVoca bulary on the Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova •bilateral Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova sit between Russia to the east •subsidy and the expanding European Union to the west. These neighbors •separatist are often grouped together, but each has a very different story. •émigré Ukraine and Belarus were founding members of the United Nations •secretariat in 1945. Yet, like Moldova, they were part of the Soviet Union. That is, they were all part of one country. Russian leader Joseph Stalin, who otherwise kept a tight grip on things, wanted each of the Soviet Union’s 15 republics to count as an “independent” member state within the United Nations so the Soviet Union would get more votes. The Western allies rejected this idea.

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 411 11/10/09 11:14 AM But as a compromise, Ukraine and Belarus were given their own seats at the UN. Moldova, one of the smallest and poorest of the former Soviet republics, did not get a seat. As of this writing, Ukraine is trying to join the European Union (EU), a Western economic alliance, and NATO, a Western military alliance. Belarus, on the other hand, has been backsliding in its progress toward democracy. In fact, the EU has reduced its relations with Belarus. Moldova, meanwhile, has been reaching out to the West as it seeks new connections outside the former Soviet Union.

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and the Ukraine Ukraine’s top foreign-policy goal is Euro-Atlantic integration. That means eventual membership in the EU and in NATO. Ukraine was negotiating an “association agreement”—a forerunner to full membership—with the EU as of this writing. Despite the European focus, Ukraine still seeks good relations with Russia and, on balance, has them. Signifi cant issues remain between the two countries, however. Membership in NATO is one of them. Moscow still sees NATO as an alliance targeted at Russia, and so opposes Ukraine’s joining it. NATO, for its part, has affi rmed that Ukraine will eventually join the alliance. But it has put off, for review “at a later date,” Ukraine’s request for a concrete plan for admission. Even while sending encouraging signs to Ukraine, NATO leaders are sensitive to Russian concerns. NATO must ask itself, if Russia ever felt threatened, would it attack Ukraine? One of NATO’s core tenets is that an attack on one is an attack on all—generally referred to as “mutual assistance.” So would NATO really come to Ukraine’s aid? How? Those questions remain unanswered for the moment. The Western military alliance must think through all possible outcomes when adding new members. Natural gas is another issue that stands between Russia and Ukraine. Under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, Russia has not hesitated to use its energy resources to exert power and infl uence over other nations. Some see Putin as particularly interested in working out bilateral deals—deals between two individual parties— with individual countries rather than working with the EU as a whole. Russia’s natural gas fl ows by pipeline across Ukraine and on to the rest of Europe. In the fi rst few weeks of 2009, the Russian national gas distributor, Gazprom, cut supplies to Ukraine. This led to a crisis for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Ukraine had domestic reserves of its own, but other Europeans were cut off. The situation was grim. Slovakia alarmed its neighbors by considering restarting an obsolete nuclear reactor to provide energy. Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko, signed an agreement resolving the dispute on 19 January 2009. But tensions remain between the two countries.

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Yet another source of strain lies in the stationing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at the Crimean city of Sevastopol. In 1997 Ukraine agreed to allow this until 2017. More recently, however, Ukrainian ofﬁ cials have hinted they will not renew the lease when it expires. In the same area, the two countries dispute the boundaries in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. One of the most dramatic recent examples of Russian interference in one of its former Republics took place during the 2004 Ukrainian presidential campaign. Russia favored pro-Russia contender Viktor Yanukovych. But Ukrainians supported Viktor Yushchenko, a pro-West candidate. Shortly before the election, Yushchenko fell ill. His face swelled, developed pockmarks, and showed alarming signs of aging. Doctors from Austria, Britain, the United States, and France conducted tests. Their diagnosis was massive dioxin poisoning. Britain’s Daily Mail reported in 2009, “The president’s pro-Western allies have accused Russia of being behind the plot to kill him, but Moscow maintains its innocence. Ukrainian prosecutor general Oleksandr Medvedko has said only three countries—one of them Russia—in the world produce dioxin TCDD.” Yushchenko recovered; Russia’s involvement has never been proved.

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 413 11/10/09 11:14 AM The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Belarus Relations between Russia and Belarus are smoother than they are between Russia and the Ukraine. Russia is Belarus’s No. 1 partner, both economically and politically. A third of Belarusian exports go to Russia. Belarus relies heavily on Russia, along with other former Soviet republics, both for export markets and for raw materials, cheap energy, and parts to build things. Market prices are a factor in these relationships. A spike in natural gas prices in 2007, as well as higher prices for Russian oil and oil-based products, led to a crisis. The Belarusian government had to cut subsidies and borrow money from Russia. A subsidy is government money used to keep prices artiﬁ cially low for goods such as food and oil. The two countries are supposedly on track to form a “union.” The founding treaties for this union call for single citizenship, a common currency, and a common foreign and defense policy. It would be like the EU, with some institutions following the EU model, although it would be a union of two, rather than two dozen, members. Belarus has postponed carrying out the currency union. The 2007 energy crisis slowed the two countries down. Although some other entities have expressed interest in joining the “union state,” the whole project remains vague.

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Moldova Poor, landlocked, and densely populated, Moldova is a textbook example of a former Soviet republic trying to ﬁ nd its way in a new world. Moldova got most of its energy and raw materials from other parts of the former Soviet Union. The breakdown in trade after the Soviet Union dissolved hit Moldova hard. Drought and civil conﬂ ict made the situation worse. Tucked between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova has an economy in which industry accounts for only 15 percent. Agriculture makes up 35 percent. With its mild, sunny climate, the country grows wheat, corn, barley, tobacco, sugar beets, and soybeans. Its farmers also raise beef and dairy cattle and keep bees. Moldova’s best-known product, though, is its world-class wines. In March 2006, however, Moldova lost one of its main markets when Russia banned imports of its wine and meat—supposedly because of health concerns but really due to political tensions between the countries. Then in November of that same year, Russia reversed the ban after Moldova threatened to block its effort to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Russia remains the largest economy outside the WTO, which it wants to join. It took nearly a year after Russia lifted the ban for Moldova’s wine trade to return to its earlier levels. Nowadays Moldovan wineries are pursuing new markets in Western Europe.

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Like Ukraine, Moldova has also been subject to Russia’s gas politics. In January u s

2006 Gazprom shut off Moldova’s gas supplies. By the time the gas began to ﬂ ow s i

again, the price had doubled. It’s been on the rise ever since. a

The Moldovan region of Transnistria, a sliver of land on the east bank of the n

Dniestr River, is controlled by ethnic-Russian separatists. A separatist is a member d

of a movement to break away from a larger body. The region’s population is 40 percent h

Romanian, 28 percent Ukrainian, 23 percent Russian, and 9 percent other groups. e

This dispute has also strained Moldovan relations with Russia, which still has forces o

stationed in the region. r m e r

The Political and Economic Inﬂ uence of Russia o v

on the Baltic States i e t

Like their southern neighbors, the R e

Baltic states share a long but varied p u

history under Russian rule. Estonia, b l

Latvia, and most of Lithuania i c

belonged to the Russian Empire by s the end of the eighteenth century. After World War I, all three enjoyed periods of independence and cultural ﬂ owering. But in 1939 the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Germany and the Soviet Union allowed the Soviets to seize them while the two aggressors divided up Poland. All three Baltic states regained independence after the Soviet Union collapsed. Always the most Westernized in terms of culture and religion, they are among the most successful “new democracies” to emerge from the end of the Cold War. All three belong to both NATO and the EU. All three are strong friends of the United States. And all three still have some issues with their large neighbor to the east.

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 415 11/10/09 11:14 AM The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Estonia Alone among the three Baltic states, Estonia regained its independence completely without bloodshed. It began to call itself “the Republic of Estonia” in 1990. It declared full independence in August 1991, during the coup against Gorbachev. The Supreme Soviet of the USSR (the legislature) offi cially recognized Estonia as an independent country on 6 September 1991. But the transition was not all smooth as silk. Estonia wanted Soviet troops off its soil as soon as possible. Moscow objected. Kremlin offi cials said they had no place else to house the troops. Meanwhile, the Russian civilians who made up a signifi cant minority of Estonia’s population had a rude awakening. They found that a new law would require them to speak Estonian fl uently if they wanted to qualify automatically for citizenship. Most of them wouldn’t meet the new standard. The Soviet government cried foul. This was a human rights violation, Moscow insisted. The Kremlin signaled that Soviet troops would stay put in Estonia until the issue was resolved. One of the sticking points was the pace of Russian withdrawal from Paldiski, some 20 miles from the Estonian capital. The Soviet navy had a base there with two nuclear submarine training reactors.

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Moscow kept control of the reactors until 1995, although its last warship sailed u s

out of port in 1994. As for the Soviet troops in Estonia, the few remaining also s i

left in 1994. And by then they were once again Russian soldiers, rather than a

Soviet troops. a n

There was also a dispute over some 750 square miles of territory. The Soviet d

Union had granted this to Estonia in 1920. But Stalin had annexed it directly h

to the Soviet Union in 1945. In the 1990s Estonia pushed to have the land e

returned. The Russians resisted, and in the end Estonia gave in. But it was o

a measure of how far the mighty Soviet Union had fallen that plucky little r m

Estonia, with not even 1.5 million people, felt it could press the issue. e r

Through all this Estonia did not want to go undefended. The likelihood that S Estonia would ever be able to defend itself against the only country likely ever o v i

to attack it—Russia—was remote. But that didn’t stop the Estonians. During the e t

1990s they worked to build up their armed forces. They appointed an Estonian R

émigré named Aleksander Einseln as their commander. An émigré is someone e

who leaves his country, especially during war. Einseln left Estonia in 1944 when p u

the Russians marched on the small country. He eventually came to America b l

and became a citizen. i c Because Einseln was a US citizen and a retired US Army colonel at the time s Estonia contacted him, the US State Department objected forcefully to his appointment. It feared Russia would be upset if former US military personnel served in high posts in the former Soviet republics. Several US senators intervened in the matter, however, and that calmed the waters. More recently, Russia has complained that Estonia does not do enough to maintain Soviet-era war memorials or to investigate when they are vandalized. In northern Estonia, unknown vandals have twice attacked a monument to soldiers who died ﬁ ghting Hitler’s force in 1944. In April 2007 mass protests greeted Estonian efforts to remove a Soviet-era monument and the graves of some World War II-era Soviet soldiers from the center of Tallinn, the capital. Riots ensued, in which more than 1,000 people were arrested. Estonia’s new relationships with the West mean that it trades much less with Russia than it did with the old Soviet Union. But Estonia sits at a crossroads between East and West. Its modern transport and communications links mean it has great potential as a safe bridge for trade between the Nordic countries and northwest Russia. Looking further into the future, many observers foresee a role for Estonia as a link in the supply chain between the rest of the EU and the Far East.

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 417 11/10/09 11:14 AM The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Latvia Like Estonia, Latvia looks west to new allies and trade partners. But it looks over its shoulder to the east often enough to keep an eye on the Russian bear. The issues that arose as Latvia tried to slip free of the bear’s hug track the Estonian experience very closely. Once again, the Soviet Union pressed for citizenship rights for ethnic Russians who had settled in the Baltic states only as part of Stalin’s occupation. Once again, the Soviets insisted on keeping troops in place as a bargaining chip on the citizenship issue. Once again, the Soviets argued that they couldn’t withdraw their troops because they had no housing for them back home. (Latvia helped answer that argument by getting some of its Western friends, including the United States, to fund construction of new housing for Russian troops in Russia.) And as in Estonia, the Soviets claimed that a sensitive military installation in Latvia prevented their pulling out. In this case it was a radar base at Skrunda, part of its antimissile early warning system.

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Latvia’s Embassies in Waiting s i a

One of the challenges of becoming an independent nation is setting up a foreign a

policy apparatus from scratch. That means setting up a foreign ministry, and n ﬁ nding diplomats to represent the new country in foreign capitals. After all, every d

independent country needs an agency to manage its relations with other countries. h

That’s what the US State Department does for the United States. e

Latvia wasn’t really starting from scratch, however. It had been independent between o

the world wars. And as the Soviet Union neared its end, Latvia had a group of people r m thinking about foreign policy. They were a kind of government in exile, preparing e

to lead. r

What’s more, throughout the years of Soviet domination, Latvians maintained o

embassies in Washington and elsewhere. Their ofﬁ cials had no real power, since their v i

government had ceased to exist. But the Latvian embassies maintained outposts of e t

what had once been a free country. The United States never recognized the Soviet R

takeover of the three Baltic states. e p

Before World War II, the Latvian government brought gold and cash to the United u

States for safekeeping. Money from these funds continued to ﬁ nance these b l

embassies during the Soviet era. And through them, Latvians made useful contacts i c

and got advice from host governments. So when Latvia regained independence s in 1991, it had people ready to lead.

The Latvia that regained independence in 1991 is slightly smaller than the Latvia Stalin took over during World War II. Unlike the Estonians, though, the Latvians never demanded their little strip of territory back. But they were reluctant to sign a new border treaty that would formalize the Russian land grab. In the end they did, and the new treaty went into effect at the end of 2007. Russia remains Latvia’s largest non-EU trade partner. But EU imports into Latvia, by value, outweigh those of all former Soviet republics more than 4 to 1. And Latvia exports more than six times as much to the EU as to the former Soviet republics.

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Lithuania Lithuania had the most difﬁ cult transition back to independence of all the Baltic states. It declared itself an independent state on 11 March 1990. Gorbachev, as leader of the Soviet Union, informally agreed not to use force against the Lithuanians. In return, the West agreed not to push the Soviets to accept Lithuanian independence.

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 419 11/10/09 11:14 AM Things changed, however, on the night of 13 January 1991. Soviet troops attacked a TV tower in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital. They killed 14 civilians and injured 700. Gorbachev, it turned out, had authorized the use of force after all. After that, Western nations no longer felt bound by their earlier promise. They started recognizing independent Lithuania one by one. On 6 September 1991 the Soviet Union, then in its last months, recognized Lithuania along with the other Baltic states As with the other Baltic states, the question of Soviet troop withdrawals arose in Lithuania. So did the claim from Moscow that it lacked housing for its ofﬁ cers in Russia. Ultimately, though, Soviet troops did pull out, ahead of schedule and a year earlier than from Estonia and Latvia. Lithuania and Russia began a new chapter in their relationship after that, including working together on economic matters. The two countries took a while to exchange ambassadors, though. And Lithuania continued to complain about Russian violations of its airspace. In the years since, Vilnius has found escaping from Soviet economic policies harder than ousting Soviet troops. As part of the Soviet Union, Lithuania acquired an economic base in line with what you’ve read about so far: heavily industrial. Its farm sector was heavily mechanized, dependent on chemicals, and not very productive. Output improved, but only at a cost to the environment. The availability of cheap Soviet energy had gotten Lithuanians into some bad habits. Their economy used too much energy. It didn’t use resources wisely. Ninety percent of its products went to the Soviet Union. That was perhaps just as well because Lithuanian goods wouldn’t have held their own in world markets. All that had to change. The Lithuanians had to privatize most state-owned business. This they did successfully. And they had to cut their trading links to the East and retool, literally, to deal with the West. A few ﬁ gures show how dramatically Lithuania shifted in just a few years. In 1997 Lithuania was sending 45 percent of its exports to the former Soviet Union. By 2006 that number had fallen to 21 percent. And by that year, 63 percent of Lithuanian exports went to members of the European Union. Some of those members were once part of the Soviet bloc. The shift shows how Lithuania is trading not only with new partners, but also with familiar partners who have changed their own systems.

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The Political and Economic Inﬂ uence of Russia s s

on Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan i a

The Baltic states’ greatest challenger over the centuries has been Russia. But n d

three small countries at the Russian Federation’s southern border have been t squeezed repeatedly not only by Russia, but by the Turks and the Persians h e

(Iranians) as well. Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan are the three countries F

that make up this southern region known as the Caucasus—the region between o r

the Black and Caspian Seas. Territorial disputes and violence have marred their m

transitions to independence. e r

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship o v i

Between Russia and Armenia e t

Armenia is a much-invaded country at the hinge of Europe and Asia. The R e

Ottoman Turks ruled it until 1918. It was brieﬂ y independent. Then it became p part of the Soviet Union in 1920. But on 21 September 1991 it once again u b l

declared its independence. i c s

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 421 11/10/09 11:14 AM The top item on Armenia’s foreign policy agenda is the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Its dispute is with Azerbaijan. But Russia likes to stay involved in what its politicians call the “near abroad.” So the issue has a Russian side to it, too. Armenia deals with Russia in other contexts, as well. Like many other former Soviet republics, it depends on Russian fuel imports. These cost more nowadays. Soon Armenia will be paying world-market prices for Russian oil and gas. Armenia gets almost all of its electricity, though, from other sources. Nuclear power provides 40 percent, hydropower 30 percent, and thermal energy 30 percent. Since independence, Armenia has restructured its economy. It has carried out wide-ranging reforms. These have led to lower inﬂ ation and steady growth. Armenia exports more of its goods to Russia than to any other country. Germany and the Netherlands aren’t far behind, though. Russia is also Armenia’s No. 1 source of imports. Ukraine and Kazakhstan are in second and third place.

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Georgia While Armenia was under Ottoman rule, Georgia was under Russian rule. Georgia, too, had a brief period of independence after the October Revolution before it fell under Soviet rule. Indeed, some of the most notorious Soviet leaders were Georgians, such as Stalin and his murderous secret police chief, Lavrenti Beria.

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Georgia declared its independence anew in March 1991. After a few rough years, it began to stabilize in 1995. But marred elections and massive corruption marked this period, too. Since 2004, however, President Mikheil Saakashvili’s government has helped turn the country into a maturing market democracy. Sweeping reforms have decentralized power. Local governments now have more authority. And Georgian elections have been largely free and fair. Two separatist conﬂ icts affect Georgia’s relations fastfastFACTFACT with Russia. One is in Abkhazia in western Georgia, where the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) maintains a peacekeeping force. The troops making up this force are all Russian, however. A UN force also maintains a presence there. Abkhazia declared its independence from Georgia in the early 1990s, and the territory often sides with Russia when there is tension in the region. South Ossetia in north-central Georgia is the other region attempting to break away. It has asserted its independence since the early 1990s. But Saakashvili campaigned for president on a promise to regain control over the region. This led to a brief war with Russia in August 2008.

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 423 11/10/09 11:15 AM Russia intervened on the side of the South Ossetians. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia had to defend South Ossetia’s civilians. Russia has offered them Russian citizenship, and most of them have accepted it. A French-brokered cease-ﬁ re took effect on 12 August 2008. On 26 August Russia recognized the independence of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Human rights observers have faulted both Georgia and Russia, as well as the separatists, for their actions in South Ossetia. And while Russia’s actions drew wide condemnation, some argued that Saakashvili should have held his ﬁ re, too. Despite the war, Georgia and Russia maintain trade ties. Georgia imports more than twice as much as it exports. Russia is more important to Georgia as a source of imports than as a market for exports. In 2006 the Russians banned the import of Georgian wine, mineral water, and agricultural products and severed transportation links. Georgia’s economy is built on heavy industry—steel, aircraft, machine tools, and the like. It exports to Turkey, the United States, Azerbaijan, Britain, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, as well as Russia. The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Azerbaijan Azerbaijan is an oil state whose people are mostly Shia Muslim. Russians, Persians, and Ottoman Turks have fought over its territory through the centuries. Its current borders go back to 1828. That’s when the Russians split the territory with the Persians.

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Nagorno-Karabakh and Other “Frozen Conﬂ icts” s i a

Nagorno-Karabakh is the main foreign-policy issue for both Armenia and a

Azerbaijan. This territory is within Azerbaijan. But its people are mostly ethnic n Armenians. During Soviet rule, Moscow considered the territory “autonomous”— d

meaning it had a limited degree of self-rule. h e

In 1988 the ethnic Armenians began to protest because they were unhappy F

with Azerbaijan. They voted to link their territory to Armenia. In July 1988 the o

Supreme Soviet (council or legislature) of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to secede r m from Azerbaijan. The Supreme Soviet of Armenia voted to make the territory e

part of Armenia. It did this even though Armenia had no common border with r

the territory. The Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan immediately voted to declare S the Armenian vote null and void. o v i

In 1990 violence broke out, with Azeris, the main ethnic group in Azerbaijan, e t

attacking ethnic Armenians. Moscow declared a state of emergency in Nagorno- R

Karabakh. It sent in troops. It also forcibly occupied the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, e

as well as the seaside town of Sumgait. p u

The Soviet Union was collapsing as all this played out. In April 1991 Azerbaijani b l

militia and Soviet troops targeted Armenian paramilitaries in Nagorno-Karabakh. i c

Moscow also sent troops into the Armenian capital, Yerevan. s But on 30 August 1991 Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union. Things changed after that. Soon Moscow said it would no longer support Azerbaijani military action in the disputed territory. Armenian militants then stepped up the violence. In October 1991 the voters of Nagorno-Karabakh chose independence. Eventually all-out war broke out. More than 30,000 people died between 1992 and 1994. A cease-fi re has held since 1994. But negotiations have not yet led to real peace. Russia co-chairs the Minsk Group, which is leading these talks. The Minsk Group is part of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Nagorno-Karabakh is one of four so-called “frozen confl icts” within the former Soviet Union. The two breakaway regions of Georgia are also part of this group. So is Transnistria in Moldova. These places have seen actual war at times, followed by long peace talks. The talks haven’t led to peace but have mostly kept a lid on violence. Many accuse Russia of supporting the separatists to stir up trouble in the former Soviet republics. All four separatist regions seek independence from states that don’t want to let them go. And all four are fi nding it hard to win international recognition.

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75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 425 11/10/09 11:15 AM Azerbaijan’s history is like that of its neighbors. After czarist rule, the country had a brief window of independence. Then came a time as a republic within the Soviet Union. But Azerbaijan was one of the few places to suffer bloodshed as the Soviet Union broke up. During the 1980s Azeri nationalism began to stir again. In January 1990 Soviet troops killed 190 Azeri demonstrators. (This was related to the conﬂ ict over Nagorno-Karabakh.) Soon after that Azerbaijan declared its sovereignty. On 30 August 1991 it became independent once again. Like Armenia, Azerbaijan’s trade links extend both east and west. Italy, in fact, edges out Russia as its leading trade partner. Azeri trade with the EU and other Western countries, as well as with Iran, is on the rise. Trade with the former Soviet Union is on the decline. The main Azeri exports are oil and gas, chemicals, oil ﬁ eld equipment, textiles, and cotton. Durable consumer goods, food, and textiles account for most Azeri imports.

The Political and Economic Inﬂ uence of Russia on Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan

As with other former Soviet republics, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan’s relations with Russia are constantly evolving. For the ﬁ rst time in modern history, these ﬁ ve Central Asian republics are independent countries. All remain closely tied to Russia and to one another. But some manage their relations with Russia from a position of strength, and others from a position of weakness.

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Kazakhstan Parts of Kazakhstan came under Russian control voluntarily. Other parts the Russians simply took over. Kazakhstan was an important Central Asian base for Russia during the days of “the Great Game,” Russia’s competition with Britain in Central Asia. But the Kazakhs pushed back against Russian domination. They wanted to keep their nomadic lifestyle. They rebelled repeatedly, ﬁ rst against czarist rule and later against the Communists. And many ﬂ ed to China. The Soviets turned the grasslands of Kazakhstan into a grain belt. During World War II they exploited Kazakhstan’s mineral resources, and conscripted its people into the armed forces. Five national divisions of draftees served in the Soviet war effort.

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S o v i e t

R e p u b l i c s By the 1980s Kazakhstan was experiencing the same tensions and calls for reform as were other parts of the Soviet Union. On 16 December 1991 Kazakhstan declared independence. Under President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan largely transformed its command economy into a free-market system. Its energy resources made its transition easier. From the start, Nazarbayev tried to fi nd a place for Kazakhstan as a bridge between East and West, Europe and Asia. As a newly independent country, Kazakhstan found out that nuclear weapons get people’s attention. At the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Kazakhstan found itself a nuclear power because many Soviet weapons happened to be based on its soil. Kazakhstan quickly won diplomatic recognition and membership in international organizations. President Nazarbayev signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and its so-called Lisbon Protocol. This committed Kazakhstan, along with Belarus and Ukraine, to give up nuclear weapons. In May 1995 the Kazakhs destroyed the last nuclear warhead on their soil. They met their goal of being “nuclear free.” Kazakhstan has stable relations with all its neighbors. It has led efforts to get former Soviet republics, including Russia, to work together as a regional community. These have met with only mixed success, however. In 1992 Kazakhstan also tried to broker peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. The idea was not only to resolve this specifi c confl ict, but to set a precedent for settling similar confl icts within the former Soviet republics.

LESSON 3 ■ Russia and the Republics 427

75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 427 11/10/09 11:15 AM Kazakhstan is a large country, as big as all of Western Europe, and an ethnically diverse one. More than one-quarter of its people are ethnic Russians. Emigration means there are fewer of them than before, though. Many Kazakhs speak Russian, however. Russian is the “ofﬁ cial” language: Kazakh is the “state” language. One of the most important symbols of Russia-Kazakhstan cooperation is the Baykonur space complex. This was the main launching center for the Soviet space program; Russia now leases it from Kazakhstan.

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Kyrgyzstan The land the Kyrgyz Republic occupies became part of the Russian Empire in 1876. Under communism, the country became the Kyrgyz Soviet Socialist Republic. The early years of Gorbachev’s glasnost had little effect there. Nationalism stirred within the population, but economics worked against this movement. Indeed, in March 1991, 88.7 percent of the voters approved a proposal to maintain the Soviet Union as a “renewed federation.” But within months the winds had changed. On 19 August 1991 the coup against Gorbachev began. At the same time, Askar Akayev, the Kyrgyz Republic’s reform- minded president, became a target of plotters as well. After the coup against Gorbachev collapsed, Akayev and his vice president quit the Soviet Communist Party. The whole Politburo and secretariat—the offi ces that manage a country’s or an organization’s affairs—resigned their posts. On 31 August 1991 the legislature voted to declare independence. On 21 December 1991 the Kyrgyz Republic formally joined the new Commonwealth of Independent States. Kyrgyzstan has close ties to other former Soviet republics, particularly Kazakhstan and Russia. And it has been alert to Russian concerns about Russian-speaking minorities in former Soviet republics. Russian is an “offi cial language” under the Kyrgyz constitution. Kyrgyz economic relations have been less smooth at times. Kyrgyzstan resented Russian restrictions in the so-called ruble zone, of which it was part. This was a trading organization that used the ruble as a common currency. And so Kyrgyzstan introduced its own currency, the som. Kyrgyzstan failed, though, to warn its neighbors Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan about the currency change. These two countries feared an infl ux of rubles and a spike in infl ation. Both neighbors halted trade for a time. The crisis soon calmed, though. In January 1994 the three countries formed an economic union. Since then, the Kyrgyz Republic has pushed regional cooperation. It has held joint military exercises with troops from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, for instance.

428 CHAPTER 4 Russia and the Former Soviet Republics

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These same two countries, along with Russia, are among Kyrgyzstan’s leading u s

trade partners. So are Switzerland and China. Kyrgyz exports include cotton, s i

wool, meat, tobacco, gold, mercury, uranium, hydropower, machinery, and shoes. a

Kyrgyz imports come from Russia, China, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. They a n

include oil and gas, machinery and equipment, and foodstuffs. d

t h

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship e

Between Russia and Uzbekistan F o r Russia is Uzbekistan’s leading trade partner. A little more than a quarter of m

Uzbekistan’s exports go to Russia; the same share of its imports comes from there. e r

Ukraine and Kazakhstan are two other important trade partners. And trade with S non-CIS partners has grown, too. The European Union, Turkey, South Korea, o v i

and Japan ﬁ gure prominently. e t

Uzbekistan maintains close ties to Russia. In November 2005 it signed a mutual R defense treaty with Moscow. Uzbekistan also seeks stronger ties to China to e p

balance its relationship with Russia. u b l i c s

LESSON 3 ■ Russia and the Republics 429

75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 429 11/10/09 11:15 AM Like many of its neighbors, Uzbekistan is something of a “joiner.” Since independence it has joined groups as varied as the Organization of the Islamic Conference and NATO’s Partnership for Peace. It’s also joined some of the groups that have developed within the former Soviet Union. Some of these groups include Russia; others do not. Uzbekistan also supports US efforts against worldwide terrorism. It has taken part in a number of peacekeeping forces in Central Asia.

The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship Between Russia and Tajikistan Tajikistan is an example of a poor country falling back under Russian sway even though it’s still independent. It fi rst came under the Russian Empire’s control during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Russian rule lapsed for a few years after 1917. But the Bolsheviks soon reasserted Russian control. Tajikistan became a Soviet socialist republic in 1929. As the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, Tajikistan became independent again. But it soon fell into civil war. By 1997 the two main factions had reached a power-sharing peace agreement. This took effect in 2000. Tajikistan shares an 800-mile border with Afghanistan. The last Russian border guards protecting this frontier pulled out only in 2005. But an army division, the 201st Motorized Rifl es, has never left. Tajikistan is one of the poorest countries in the world. During the Soviet era, Moscow gave aid amounting to up to 23 percent of the Tajik GDP. Today Tajikistan depends on exports of cotton and aluminum for its foreign revenue. It also counts on money sent back home by Tajiks working abroad. Most of these are in Russia. Tajikistan exports more to the West than before. Most of its imports, though, are from within the CIS. Electricity, natural gas, and oil come from Uzbekistan and Russia. Grain comes from Kazakhstan. Like many former Soviet republics, Tajikistan looked westward in the fi rst years of its independence. But more recently it has turned back toward Moscow. Russia has taken a harder foreign-policy line in recent years. Moscow has shown itself willing to fi ght for, or at least over, former Soviet territory. In August 2008 it fought the brief war with Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia, for instance. And the Tajiks have taken note. Just weeks after Russia’s involvement in South Ossetia, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon agreed with his Russian counterpart that Russia would increase its military presence in Tajikistan.

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The Diplomatic and Trade Relationship u s

Between Russia and Turkmenistan s i a

From the sixteenth century on, raiders on horseback went after the caravans a that passed through Turkmenistan. The raiders pillaged and took prisoners for n d

the slave trade. When the czar’s armies thundered into Central Asia to consolidate t his empire, their excuse was that they were looking to free Russian citizens. h e

By 1894 Turkmenistan was part of the Russian empire. Thirty years later, F o

the Turkmen Republic was part of the Soviet Union. On 27 October 1991 r Turkmenistan regained independence. m e r

This didn’t mean a ﬂ owering of democracy, though. Rather, the Turkmens traded S

authoritarian rule from Moscow for a despot closer to home. Saparmyrat Niyazov o v

was the new republic’s ﬁ rst president. He remained the supreme decision maker i e

and “president for life” until his death in 2006. t

His successor took ofﬁ ce after a popular vote. But Turkmenistan otherwise retains e p

much of the worst of the old Soviet Union. It has a centrally planned economy. The u

government restricts personal liberties by requiring internal passports, for instance. b l i

And no political opposition is allowed. c s Some 85 percent of the citizens are ethnic Turkmens. Another 4 percent are ethnic Russians. Turkmen is the offi cial language. But the 1992 constitution refers to Russian as a “language of interethnic communication.” Turkmenistan is an important producer of oil and gas. Its natural gas reserves are signifi cant, though probably not so great as it would like the world to believe. It is the No. 2 gas producer within the former Soviet Union, behind Russia. This gives it an energy independence that other countries might envy. To bring its gas to market, however, Turkmenistan must rely on Russia because most of the pipelines run across Russia. Russia is one of Turkmenistan’s leading trade partners. The two countries are also involved in some water resource issues. Among them are marine boundaries in the Caspian Sea. Russia’s Continuing Infl uence By now you see that it’s diffi cult to make general statements about the former Soviet republics. They all have very different relationships with Russia and with each other. In many cases, these relationships depend on geography and history. The Baltic states, for example, lie close to the West and have direct land and sea connections. For centuries they traded with the West. They have cultures infl uenced by the Roman Catholic or Lutheran churches and use the Roman alphabet. So it’s only logical that they would have quickly reasserted these ties after independence.

LESSON 3 ■ Russia and the Republics 431

75162_C4L3_p410-433_AFJROTC_FINAL.indd 431 11/10/09 11:15 AM But geography isn’t everything. Ukraine and Belarus are Slavic neighbors, yet one is a democracy and the other a dictatorship. In the Central Asian republics, respect for democracy and human rights varies widely, as you have read. These republics are still working out their relations with Russia, each other, and the rest of the Islamic world. One common fact remains, however: Russia is still the dominant ﬁ gure in the territory of the former Soviet Union. With a large population, huge territory, vast resources, and a still-powerful military, Russia will remain a major player in the neighborhood for a long time to come. For the leaders of the other republics, this is a fact of life they will always have to take into account.

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a n d

Lesson 3 Review t h

Using complete sentences, answer the following questions on a sheet of paper. e

1. F How have Ukraine and Belarus behaved differently since the breakup o r

of the Soviet Union? m

2. e Why is wine so important to Moldova, and why did Russia lift its ban r

on Moldovan wines? S o v

3. What caused the three independent Baltic states to become part i e

of the Soviet Union? t

4. How was Lithuania’s transition to independence more difﬁ cult than e p

that of the other Baltic States? u b l

5. What did Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili promise to do i c

in his election campaign? s 6. What are four “frozen conﬂ icts” of the former Soviet Union? 7. As the Soviet Union dissolved, Kazakhstan found itself in possession of which major item that got people’s attention? What did it do with these? 8. How has Turkmenistan retained much of the worst of the old Soviet Union?

Applying Your Learning 9. Do you think the brief war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 was a reason for NATO to act swiftly on Ukraine and Georgia’s membership requests—or to slow down? Explain.

LESSON 3 ■ Russia and the Republics 433

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