DOCSLIB.ORG

Is Queensland Different?

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Is Queensland Different? Is Queensland different? insidestory.org.au/is-queensland-different/ July 17, 2018 Inside Story Current affairs & culture from Australia and beyond 987 words National Affairs Paul Rodan 17 July 2018 This month’s by-elections come at a delicate time for Labor, federally and in Queensland Right: State of disappointment? Opposition leader Bill Shorten campaigning with the Labor candidate for the Queensland seat of Longman, Susan Lamb, earlier this month. A one-sided history serves as backdrop to the five federal by-elections on 28 July. Only once since Federation has the opposition party lost a seat to the governing party in a federal by-election. On that occasion, in Kalgoorlie in 1920, the Labor member had been expelled from parliament for uttering “seditious and disloyal” views about British policy and the Empire. He recontested the seat, and lost — a cruel and decisive blow to early twentieth-century republicanism. In recent years the statistical picture has been complicated by the increasing tendency for Labor and the Coalition to sit out by-elections in each other’s safe seats. Where a genuine Labor–Coalition contest takes place, the size of the swing can depend on whether the seat is held by the government or by the opposition. Examining twenty-seven relevant by- elections in opposition-held seats since Federation, election-watcher Kevin Bonham finds a median swing of just over 1 per cent to the opposition, although that median embraces a very wide range of movement. With the contests in Perth and Fremantle effectively Labor versus Greens, the results (likely Labor wins) are unlikely to tell us much about the state of the nation. In Mayo, recent SA election results might have augured poorly for Rebekha Sharkie (Centre Alliance, ex–Nick Xenophon Team) but local polling suggests that she is the favourite. Malcolm Turnbull has a little, but not a lot, riding on the result. A win would be nice, but a loss can easily be spun as the normal result for a government attempting to regain a seat in a by-election. Braddon in Tasmania, held by 2.2 per cent, is the sort of seat that should favour a Labor 1/3 opposition pursuing an equality and fairness agenda; it certainly doesn’t contain many voters consulting their accountants about the tax rate on $200,000 or more. The Liberals did extremely well here in the state election, but local experts point to a long history of contrasting state and federal voting behaviour, and the poker machine issue was also a live one in that poll. A Labor loss would be unwelcome, but could almost plausibly be filed under “Tasmania is different.” When Bob Hawke took government in 1983, he didn’t win a single seat on the island. Most interest will focus on the Queensland seat of Longman, won by Labor in 2016 with the assistance of One Nation preferences, an anomaly not to be repeated this time. Hence, its margin of 0.8 of one per cent is probably artificial, and it may be that Labor itself needs a “real” swing to hold the seat. But it would be unwise to exaggerate the capacity of One Nation to control its preferences. In 2016, with the party card directing preferences away from Coalition incumbent Wyatt Roy, 56 per cent followed that advice but 44 per cent preferenced Roy regardless. Granted, more will be inclined to follow a pro-conservative card this time, but experience suggests that 70 per cent compliance is a likely maximum, which would still put the seat back in Coalition hands if nothing else changed. It will possibly assist the preference flow to the Coalition if, as expected, more One Nation activists are available to distribute how-to-vote cards than would be the case in a general election, when resources must be spread across the vast state. If there is a donkey vote to be secured, it will be Labor’s, for Susan Lamb appears above the Coalition candidate on the ballot paper. (In Braddon, the Liberals are the donkey beneficiaries.) Of the ten most marginal Coalition seats in the nation, five are in Queensland, and it is difficult to envisage a path to government for Labor that doesn’t involve increasing its stocks in that state. It might be contended that if Labor can’t prevail in Longman in the congenial anti-government atmosphere of a by-election (against a government that’s been trailing in national polls for most of its term), questions should be raised as to how it would achieve the necessary swing in the more demanding environment of a general election. The state breakdown of Labor’s national poll lead is positive for the party. Indeed, the authoritative BludgerTrack identifies a movement to federal Labor of more than 5 per cent in Queensland since the 2016 election, a trend reinforced in the recent Fairfax/Ipsos poll reporting a two-party-preferred 52–48 in Labor’s favour in the state. Polling in Longman suggests a much closer contest, and the by-election will to some extent be a further test of the credibility of individual seat polling, following flawed predictions in the federal seat of Batman and the state seat of Darling Range in Western Australia. Of course, it might be argued that Longman is different and that a general swing across the state may not be reflected in this particular seat: possible, but not obviously persuasive. There is some suggestion that voters may seek to punish Lamb for mishandling her original nomination and Bill Shorten for his hubris in declaring his members free of problems with their citizenship. If this factor is in play, Lamb may need to generate some level of sympathy for the strained family circumstances that led to her problematic nomination. A more worrying possibility for Labor is not that Longman is different, but that Queensland is different, and that predicted levels of Labor support fail to materialise when the 2/3 hypothetical of a polling question is replaced by the reality of a ballot paper. That has certainly been the case in previous elections, in which federal Labor has underperformed relative to opinion poll numbers. Only three times since 1949 has the party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the state, and on only six occasions has it won a majority of seats. At present it holds just eight out of the state’s thirty House of Representatives seats. Queensland has long been federal Labor’s boulevard of broken dreams. Bill Shorten will be hoping that a nightmare can be avoided. ● Share Paul Rodan Paul Rodan is an adjunct professor in the Department of Social Sciences at Swinburne University of Technology. 3/3.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Compulsory Voting in Australian National Elections
    Parliament of Australia Department of Parliamentary Services Parliamentary Library RESEARCH BRIEF Information analysis and advice for the Parliament 31 October 2005, no. 6, 2005–06, ISSN 1832-2883 Compulsory voting in Australian national elections Compulsory voting has been part of Australia’s national elections since 1924. Renewed Liberal Party interest and a recommendation by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters that voluntary and compulsory voting be the subject of future investigation, suggest that this may well be an important issue at the next election. This research brief refers to the origins of compulsory voting in Australia, describes its use in Commonwealth elections, outlines the arguments for and against compulsion, discusses the political impact of compulsory voting and refers to suggested reforms. Scott Bennett Politics and Public Administration Section Contents Executive summary ................................................... 3 Introduction ........................................................ 4 The emergence of compulsory voting in Australia ............................. 5 Compulsory voting elsewhere ........................................... 8 Administration of compulsory voting in Australian national elections ............... 8 To retain or reject compulsory voting? ..................................... 9 Opposition to compulsory voting ......................................... 9 Support for compulsory voting .......................................... 11 The political impact of compulsory voting
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Exhausted Votes
    Committee Secretary Timothy McCarthy Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters Dear committee, I am a software engineer living in Melbourne. Over the last few months, I have developed a tool for analysing Senate ballot papers, using raw data made available by the AEC on their website. In this submission, I will present some of my results in the hope that they might be of use to the committee, particularly in evaluating the success of changes to the recent changes to the Electoral Act. The key results are as follows: • Of the 1,042,132 exhausted votes, 917,379 (88%) were from ballots whose first preference was for a minor party or independent candidate. • 25% of the total primary vote for minor parties exhausted, compared to just 1.22% for major parties. • Nationally, donkey votes made up only 0.15% of the vote. The Division of Lingiari had an unusually high number of donkey votes (2.32%), mainly from the remote mobile teams in that division. • Despite the changes to above-the-line voting, 290,758 ballots still marked a single '1' above the line. • 1,046,837 ballots (7.56% of formal ballots) were saved from informality by savings provi- sions in the Act. 1 Exhausted votes Changes in the Electoral Act prior to the election introduced optional preferential voting both above and below the line. These changes introduced the possibility of ballots exhausting, something that was exceedingly rare under the previous rules. At the 2016 Federal election, there were just over 1 million exhausted votes, about 7.5% of the total.
    [Show full text]
  • You Can't Be What You Can't See— Women
    Legislative Assembly for the Australian Capital Territory 49th Presiding Officers and Clerks Conference Wellington, New Zealand 8-13 July 2018 You can’t be what you can’t see— Women in the Legislative Assembly for the Australian Capital Territory Paper to be presented by Joy Burch, MLA, Speaker of the Legislative Assembly for the Australian Capital Territory Page 1 of 10 ‘Any way you look at it there are many, many women who are capable of that job of leadership and making an impact at every level of government and I think we should see more”1 “Women in politics do make a difference and they can change people’s perceptions of politics – they also change the structural discrimination of old-style political systems and parliamentary conventions”2 1 Rosemary Follett, ‘Rosemary Follett and Kate Carnell reunited to sight sexism in politics’ Canberra Times 7th March 2015. 2 Katy Gallagher, ACT Chief Minister, katygallagher.net/blog blog post, 1st October 2014. Page 2 of 10 Introduction Women have played an important and prominent role in the Legislative Assembly for the Australian Capital Territory since its establishment in 1989. The ACT was the first state or territory to have a woman as its Head of Government. In the Second Assembly, the positions of Speaker, Chief Minister and Leader of the Opposition were all held by women. Perhaps most significantly, at the Territory election for the Ninth Assembly in 2016, thirteen women were elected to the Assembly. It was the first time in Australian history that a majority of women had been elected to a parliament and one of the first jurisdictions in the world to have done so.3 It was also notable that the voters of the ACT returned this result even though only 36 percent of the total 140 candidates that stood for election were women.
    [Show full text]
  • Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters Inquiry Into the Conduct of the 2013 Federal Election
    11 April 2014 Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters Parliament House Canberra ACT Please find attached my submission to the Committee's inquiry into the conduct of the 2013 federal election. In my submission I make suggestions for changes to political party registration under the Commonwealth Electoral Act. I also suggest major changes to Senate's electoral system given the evident problems at lasty year's election as well as this year's re-run of the Western Australian Senate election. I also make modest suggestions for changes to formality rules for House of Representatives elections. I have attached a substantial appendix outlining past research on NSW Legislative Council Elections. This includes ballot paper surveys from 1999 and research on exhaustion rates under the new above the line optional preferential voting system used since 2003. I can provide the committee with further research on the NSW Legislative Council system, as well as some ballot paper research I have been carrying out on the 2013 Senate election. I am happy to discuss my submission with the Committee at a hearing. Yours, Antony Green Election Analyst Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters Inquiry into the Conduct of the 2013 Federal Election Antony Green Contents Page 1. Political Party Registration 1 2. Changes to the Senate's Electoral System 7 2.1 Allow Optional Preferential Voting below the line 8 2.2 Above the Line Optional Preferential Voting 9 2.3 Hare Clark 10 2.4 Hybrid Group Ticket Option 10 2.5 Full Preferential Voting Above the Line 11 2.6 Threshold Quotas 11 2.7 Optional Preferential Voting with a Re-calculating Quota 12 2.8 Changes to Formula 12 2.9 My Suggested Solution 13 3.
    [Show full text]
  • Balance of Power Senate Projections, Spring 2018
    Balance of power Senate projections, Spring 2018 The Australia Institute conducts a quarterly poll of Senate voting intention. Our analysis shows that major parties should expect the crossbench to remain large and diverse for the foreseeable future. Senate projections series, no. 2 Bill Browne November 2018 ABOUT THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE The Australia Institute is an independent public policy think tank based in Canberra. It is funded by donations from philanthropic trusts and individuals and commissioned research. We barrack for ideas, not political parties or candidates. Since its launch in 1994, the Institute has carried out highly influential research on a broad range of economic, social and environmental issues. OUR PHILOSOPHY As we begin the 21st century, new dilemmas confront our society and our planet. Unprecedented levels of consumption co-exist with extreme poverty. Through new technology we are more connected than we have ever been, yet civic engagement is declining. Environmental neglect continues despite heightened ecological awareness. A better balance is urgently needed. The Australia Institute’s directors, staff and supporters represent a broad range of views and priorities. What unites us is a belief that through a combination of research and creativity we can promote new solutions and ways of thinking. OUR PURPOSE – ‘RESEARCH THAT MATTERS’ The Institute publishes research that contributes to a more just, sustainable and peaceful society. Our goal is to gather, interpret and communicate evidence in order to both diagnose the problems we face and propose new solutions to tackle them. The Institute is wholly independent and not affiliated with any other organisation. Donations to its Research Fund are tax deductible for the donor.
    [Show full text]
  • The Caretaker Election
    26. The Results and the Pendulum Malcolm Mackerras The two most interesting features of the 2010 election were that it was close and it was an early election. Since early elections are two-a-penny in our system, I shall deal with the closeness of the election first. The early nature of the election does, however, deserve consideration because it was early on two counts. These are considered below. Of our 43 general elections so far, this was the only one both to be close and to be an early election. Table 26.1 Months of General Elections for the Australian House of Representatives, 1901–2010 Month Number Years March 5 1901,1983, 1990, 1993, 1996 April 2 1910, 1951 May 4 1913, 1917, 1954, 1974 July 1 1987 August 2 1943, 2010 September 4 1914, 1934, 1940, 1946 October 6 1929, 1937, 1969, 1980, 1998, 2004 November 7 1925, 1928, 1958, 1963, 1966, 2001, 2007 December 12 1903, 1906, 1919, 1922, 1931, 1949, 1955, 1961, 1972, 1975, 1977, 1984 Total 43 The Close Election In the immediate aftermath of polling day, several commentators described this as the closest election in Australian federal history. While I can see why people would say that, I describe it differently. As far as I am concerned, there have been 43 general elections for our House of Representatives of which four can reasonably be described as having been close. They are the House of Representatives plus half-Senate elections held on 31 May 1913, 21 September 1940, 9 December 1961 and 21 August 2010.
    [Show full text]
  • Commonwealth of Australia
    Commonwealth of Australia Author Wanna, John Published 2019 Journal Title Australian Journal of Politics and History Version Accepted Manuscript (AM) DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/ajph.12576 Copyright Statement © 2019 School of History, Philosophy, Religion and Classics, School of Political Science and International Studies, University of Queensland and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Commonwealth of Australia, Australian Journal of Politics and History, Volume 65, Issue 2, Pages 295-300, which has been published in final form at 10.1111/ajph.12576. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving Downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10072/388250 Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au Commonwealth of Australia John Wanna Turnbull’s Bizarre Departure, and a Return to Minority Government for the Morrison-led Coalition Just when political pundits thought federal parliament could not become even wackier than it had been in recent times, the inhabitants of Capital Hill continued to prove everyone wrong. Even serious journalists began referring to the national legislature metaphorically as the “monkey house” to encapsulate the farcical behaviour they were obliged to report. With Tony Abbott being pre-emptively ousted from the prime ministership by Malcolm Turnbull in 2015, Turnbull himself was, in turn, unceremoniously usurped in bizarre circumstances in August 2018, handing over the leadership to his slightly bemused Treasurer Scott Morrison. Suddenly, Australia was being branded as the notorious “coup capital of the Western democracies”, with five prime ministers in five years and only one losing the high office at a general election.
    [Show full text]
  • Optional Preferential Voting for the Australian Senate
    ELECTORAL REGULATION RESEARCH NETWORK/DEMOCRATIC AUDIT OF AUSTRALIA JOINT WORKING PAPER SERIES OPTIONAL PREFERENTIAL VOTING FOR THE AUSTRALIAN SENATE Michael Maley (Associate, Centre For Democratic Institutions, Australian National University) WORKING PAPER NO. 16 (NOVEMBER 2013) 1 Introduction This paper explores the possible use of optional preferential voting (OPV) as a way of dealing with concerns which have been crystallised at the 2013 Australian federal election about the operation of some aspects of the Senate electoral system. Its main emphasis is on the extent to which full preferential voting no longer enables voters to express their preferences truthfully, and the role which OPV could play in correcting this.1 In a number of respects, the election was remarkable. • The 40 vacancies were contested by a record number of candidates, 529. • The percentage of votes polled by parties already represented in the Parliament dropped significantly from 2010. • In five out of the six States, a candidate was elected from a party which had never previously been represented in the federal Parliament. • For the first time ever, the seats in one State, South Australia, were divided between five different parties. • In Victoria, a minor party candidate was elected after having polled only 0.5% of the first preference votes cast in the State. • In Western Australia, a partial recount of ballot papers was ordered, and in the aftermath of its conduct it was revealed by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) that some 1,375 ballot papers “all of which had been verified during the initial WA Senate count … could not be located, rechecked or verified in the recount process”.
    [Show full text]
  • Voting in AUSTRALIAAUSTRALIA Contents
    Voting IN AUSTRALIAAUSTRALIA Contents Your vote, your voice 1 Government in Australia: a brief history 2 The federal Parliament 5 Three levels of government in Australia 8 Federal elections 9 Electorates 10 Getting ready to vote 12 Election day 13 Completing a ballot paper 14 Election results 16 Changing the Australian Constitution 20 Active citizenship 22 Your vote, your voice In Australia, citizens have the right and responsibility to choose their representatives in the federal Parliament by voting at elections. The representatives elected to federal Parliament make decisions that affect many aspects of Australian life including tax, marriage, the environment, trade and immigration. This publication explains how Australia’s electoral system works. It will help you understand Australia’s system of government, and the important role you play in it. This information is provided by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), an independent statutory authority. The AEC provides Australians with an independent electoral service and educational resources to assist citizens to understand and participate in the electoral process. 1 Government in Australia: a brief history For tens of thousands of years, the heart of governance for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples was in their culture. While traditional systems of laws, customs, rules and codes of conduct have changed over time, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples continue to share many common cultural values and traditions to organise themselves and connect with each other. Despite their great diversity, all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities value connection to ‘Country’. This includes spirituality, ceremony, art and dance, family connections, kin relationships, mutual responsibility, sharing resources, respecting law and the authority of elders, and, in particular, the role of Traditional Owners in making decisions.
    [Show full text]
  • Updateaug 2021 Vol 29, No
    UpdateAug 2021 Vol 29, No. 2 Three times a year Newsletter The thing about Bluey Dr Cheryl Hayden Member of ABC Friends, Queensland s exposed recently by Amanda Meade in The Guardian Bluey is an on 14 May, the Morrison government has employed its endearing rendition A endless sleight of hand with language to imply that it had of a world in funded the Emmy Award-winning children’s animation, Bluey, which the human through the Australian Children’s Television Foundation. The population is depicted by various breeds of dog. Bluey herself is office of Communications Minister, Paul Fletcher, had apparently a pre-schooler, the elder daughter of perhaps the world’s best not consulted with the Foundation when making this claim and, parents, Bandit and Chilli Heeler, and sister to Bingo. Yes, they as The Guardian explained, refused to accept that an error or a are a family of blue and red heeler dogs, with an extended family misleading comment had been made. Instead, his spokesperson of Heeler aunts, uncles, grandparents and cousins. They live came up with the lame comment that while the Foundation did on a hilltop in Brisbane’s inner-city Paddington, in a renovated not directly fund the program, it was “a strong advocate for quality Queenslander. Go on adventures with them, and you’ll find children’s content including actively supporting the success of yourself eating ice-cream at Southbank, shopping in the Myer Bluey through lots of positive endorsement and publicity, as Centre, or hopping on river rocks in a local creek. an excellent example of Australian’s children’s content, [and] Bluey and Bingo have a diverse bunch of friends, and the wit and the government is proud that it has been able to support the irony that has gone into developing their names and characters production of Bluey through the ABC and Screen Australia.” is hard to miss.
    [Show full text]
  • 1 15 March 2021 Hon. Rebekha Sharkie MP 1/72 Gawler St Mount Barker SA 5251 by Email: [email protected] Dear Ms Shar
    15 March 2021 Hon. Rebekha Sharkie MP 1/72 Gawler St Mount Barker SA 5251 By email: [email protected] Dear Ms Sharkie, RE: National Consumer Credit Protection (Supporting Economic Recovery) Bill 2020 We recently communicated with you last year to express our serious concerns about the National Consumer Credit Protection (Supporting Economic Recovery) Bill 2020 (the Bill), and have more recently provided you with our submission made to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee (the Committee). We understand that the Senate Economics Legislation Committee report is due to be presented to the Senate this Friday 12 March 2021. We understand that the Senate may vote on the Bill early next week. We are deeply concerned from what we hear that there will be pressure on independent Senators to support this Bill and of claims there will be duplicate and equivalent consumer protections. We urge Centre Alliance not to support this Bill because it: Is totally adverse to the recommendations from the Royal Commission; Will not increase economic activity; Will impact adversely on small businesses as people will have less money to spend at local small businesses; Will cause harm to vulnerable Australians who will lose valuable consumer protections. Further detail We are writing now in response to the Senate Committee recent public hearings relating to the Bill on 19 and 26 February 2021. In response to matters Committee Members raised and evidence presented at the hearing on 26 February 2021, we seek to highlight that there is nothing redeemable in the Bill. We are calling for the previous National Consumer Credit Protection Amendment (Small Amount Credit Contract and Consumer Leases) Bill 2019 (No 2) to be passed to avert the chaos that will be brought to consumer credit protection if the Bill proceeds: Default rates are not a proper measure of consumer harm as borrowers prioritise repaying credit contracts at expense of going without food or other basic essentials.
    [Show full text]
  • LARGEST REMAINDER (Not Quite Quota Notes) No
    Occasional newsletter of Electoral Reform Australia LARGEST REMAINDER (Not quite Quota Notes) No. 26 July 2015 In this issue count right through to the end. o In this issue...............................................1 Gaming of the system is rife. Unprincipled o President’s Report to the Annual General backroom deals are made between parties Meeting of Electoral Reform Australia....1 who should ostensibly be on opposite ends of o Address by Guest speaker........................2 the political spectrum. Excessive and o Is the Robson Rotation a Turn too Far? ...2 pointless formality requirements force voters into supporting party tickets despite knowing o Queensland Simulation ............................6 that such deals may have been arranged. o Future Meetings .......................................7 One would think that as electoral results after President’s Report to the Annual electoral results, right across this country, General Meeting of Electoral show the failure of the current system, reform would be easy. But no! The latest ridiculous Reform Australia idea, from the Federal Joint Standing In Australia, there is general acceptance that Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM), is proportional representation is worthwhile, at to impose on the Senate the same system that least for upper houses and local government, has just failed in the latest NSW Legislative and we don’t normally have to debate the Council election, as indeed it did in previous merits of PR versus such ridiculous voting elections. systems as first past the post. The JSCEM proposal retains above-the-line Our task is much more subtle and therefore voting, retains compulsory preferences below probably more difficult. We have to persuade the line, and hopes that voters will give politicians and most of the self-styled preferences to different groups in the above- psephologists that they are wrong: that all the the-line boxes.
    [Show full text]