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By Masterminding a Preference Strategy Favouring the Greens in Five Key Seats, the Coalition Aims to Divide and Rule the Progressive Side of Politics

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By Masterminding a Preference Strategy Favouring the Greens in Five Key Seats, the Coalition Aims to Divide and Rule the Progressive Side of Politics 14 May 2016 The Saturday Paper, Melbourne Author: Chris Wallace • Section: General News • Article type : News Item Classification : National • Audience : 100,000 • Page: 3 • Printed Size: 877.00cm² Market: National • Country: Australia • ASR: AUD 7,666 • Words: 1532 Item ID: 593278278 Licensed by Copyright Agency. You may only copy or communicate this work with a licence. Page 1 of 4 By masterminding a preference strategy favouring the Greens in five key seats, the Coalition aims to divide and rule the progressive side of politics. By Chris Wallace. Libs tap Greens power government in the event neither side wins a clear majority. “The government is warning of the dangers of a hung parliament at the same time as they’re trying to create one,” opposition leader Bill Shorten told The CHRIS Saturday Paper this week. WALLACE “I think people who vote for the is a Canberra Greens political party should be very alive journalist and to the fact that their vote will actually be biographer of a vote for the Liberals and their agenda Germaine Greer. of $100,000 uni degrees, cuts to Medicare Political fragmentation that makes it and cuts to schools.” systemically easier for the Liberal– The strategy, conceived by National Coalition to form government Victorian Liberal Party president Michael than Labor is poised to become an ongoing Kroger, is set to be quietly extended to legacy of the Turnbull government’s 2016 two winnable seats for the Greens in federal election strategy. Sydney, giving the Greens the potential to The Liberals’ likely direction achieve a critical mass in the lower house of preferences to the Greens in fi ve it would otherwise struggle to achieve. Melbourne and Sydney seats is designed “What that does is create more to divide and rule the progressive side likelihood of hung parliaments,” a senior Labor election strategist told The Saturday of politics by building up a left-leaning Paper third party rump in the house of . “It’s a deal that makes it more likely representatives. that Peter Dutton remains immigration Undermining Labor’s seat minister after the next election.” count in its own right, it would set the The dynamic echoes the ongoing Coalition up to win more seats than the advantage the conservative Cameron ALP in the lower house on an ongoing government in Britain now enjoys basis, conferring the fi rst right to form because of the Scottish National Party’s inroads into Labour’s seat count, 14 May 2016 The Saturday Paper, Melbourne Author: Chris Wallace • Section: General News • Article type : News Item Classification : National • Audience : 100,000 • Page: 3 • Printed Size: 877.00cm² Market: National • Country: Australia • ASR: AUD 7,666 • Words: 1532 Item ID: 593278278 Licensed by Copyright Agency. You may only copy or communicate this work with a licence. Page 2 of 4 eff ectively ending Labour’s chance of week of recent preference discussions. forming government well into the future. “They said, ‘No, we can talk to you about In a successful strategy crafted by every state except Victoria.’” Australian political consultant Lynton Victoria is the state where Kroger, Crosby for the Conservatives at last year’s unusually enjoying support across British election, the idea of a Labour–SNP the factional spectrum, is driving the coalition was simultaneously whipped up preference strategy. The Australian and demonised by Conservatives despite reported one right-wing Victorian Liberal Labour’s absolute rejection of it. MP saying in response to the ploy this In a comparable ploy in the 2016 week, “I fucking hate the Greens but I am Australian federal election, Coalition MPs backing Michael Kroger 100 per cent.” and parts of the media – notably News Moderate Liberal Jeff Kennett also gave Corp – are propagating and demonising his tacit support, according to the report. the idea of a Labor–Greens coalition in Labor says the pattern of statements and behaviour evident in Australia, an idea rejected by the ALP as preference discussions mirrors those held “dreaming”. behind the scenes during negotiations At the same time, the Liberals are preparing to direct preferences to over changes to senate electoral laws last the Greens in fi ve seats, ensuring the month. Labor long knew of the secret deal very fragmentation of which they are to secure passage of the senate electoral ostensibly warning. law changes because the government had One seat, Melbourne, is already off ered it the same deal at the same time held by the Greens’ Adam Bandt but but was rebuff ed. The Greens denied a is under strong challenge from Labor deal until the last moment, then backed candidate and Socialist Left faction the government. member Sophie Ismail. The other four – Kroger is pushing the preference Batman and Wills in Victoria and Sydney strategy aggressively, despite repeated and Grayndler in New South Wales – are public statements over years that prospective Greens gains in the context of it should be an “article of faith” for Liberal preference assistance. Liberals to put the Greens last when The development has been barely it comes to preferences. “I don’t think reported outside Melbourne despite the Liberal Party should ever do a deal its national signifi cance. Those reports with the Greens,” he told Sky News in have framed it as part of a Liberals– 2013, “because they’re a poisonous and Greens deal that would see the Greens insidious infl uence on Australian politics.” issue “open tickets” that don’t direct The prospect is a deep concern preferences in a number of vulnerable for former Liberal prime minister John marginal Liberal seats. While not a Howard, who told ABC TV’s 7.30 in March “swap”, the preference deal would subtly, of his fears that the deal between the but in extremely tight contests potentially Turnbull government and the Greens decisively, aff ect the result by shifting to get changes to senate electoral laws the two-party-preferred vote a few vital through parliament might signal further percentage points. joint political manoeuvres. “I hope,” he The Greens’ Member for said, “this doesn’t presage some kind Melbourne Adam Bandt denied the of understanding about preferences existence of such a deal with the Liberals in house of representatives elections this week. A spokesperson for Greens between the Coalition and the Greens.” leader Senator Richard Di Natale But a number of disparate, reiterated this to The Saturday Paper, unexpected factors are emerging early adding that there were ample precedents in the 2016 campaign which, while each for the Greens not directing preferences of modest size, may provide a signifi cant in some seats. cumulative boost to the federal Labor However, an agreement to provide vote as the campaign unfolds. mutual aid against Labor in Victoria while The fi rst is a potential spillover from ensuring preference swap deniability the catastrophic fall in the popularity is as good as done, according to Labor of the Western Australian Liberal state strategists. government led by Colin Barnett, with the “We sat down with the Greens as two-party-preferred vote showing Labor always and asked, ‘Can we talk a national ahead 54–46 points in the latest Newspoll deal?’” a senior Labor negotiator said this – a strong lead despite the perceived 14 May 2016 The Saturday Paper, Melbourne Author: Chris Wallace • Section: General News • Article type : News Item Classification : National • Audience : 100,000 • Page: 3 • Printed Size: 877.00cm² Market: National • Country: Australia • ASR: AUD 7,666 • Words: 1532 Item ID: 593278278 Licensed by Copyright Agency. You may only copy or communicate this work with a licence. Page 3 of 4 unexceptional leadership quality of Labor Briggs staff er, is a real chance to defeat him leader Mark McGowan. in the wake of his Hong Kong scandal. There are also fears the debate Another sleeper issue is the shadow raging in the election campaign’s Abbott loyalists are casting over some fi rst week over the retrospective seats, including the Liberal marginal superannuation tax policy changes Eden-Monaro in NSW, where sitting announced in the budget earlier this member Peter Hendy faces shovel- month may bite extra hard in WA. Latent leaning by the Abbott-aligned among memories of retrospective tax law his local rank-and-fi le branch members. changes made by John Howard when Turnbull’s on-the-ground agenda in the treasurer in the Fraser government, in NSW marginal seat of Lindsay had to be response to the bottom-of-the-harbour changed after he and Liberal MP Fiona tax schemes, caused particular animosity Scott were intensively questioned by in Perth in the early 1980s and linger. journalists about her switch from Abbott These factors, combined with to Turnbull in last year’s leadership ballot. negative atmospherics surrounding the Whether Abbott himself will make end of the mining boom, have Liberal election interventions the way Kevin strategists worried about the potential Rudd did against Julia Gillard in the 2010 loss of up to four seats in WA. federal campaign remains an open and In Queensland, the election of intriguing question. At the end of week one, it is clear the a new state Liberal National Party election will be much tighter than initially opposition leader, Tim Nicholls, a leading expected, with little room for error. proponent of former LNP premier • Campbell Newman’s politically disastrous privatisation agenda, holds the potential to remind Queensland voters of the nasty policy surprises electing Liberal governments can hold. Tony Abbott’s muscularity was perceived to be a better political fi t with ordinary Queenslanders than prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s softer personal style. It remains to be seen whether that translates into softer support for the Coalition in a state where Labor must win a swag of seats to have a hope of winning national offi ce.
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