U.S. Department of Commerce BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Center for International Research December- .. --- - -- 19N-.-. GUATEMALA Guatemala is the second most popu- Figure 1. lous Central American nation, with Rmnt Distribution of Population, by Age and Sex: an estimated 8.9 million inhabitants 1989 and 202Q in 1989. The country presently has a Male young age structure, with 45 percent Female of the population under 15 years of age (figure 1). Infant mortality has been si@tcantly reduced in recent decades, and the total fertility rate, though declining, is still over 5 chil- dren per woman. Guatemala's population, however, is slowly aging. Declining fertility is re- ducing the growth of the very young population. Concurrently, improve- ments in mortality at older ages are . accelerating the growth of the older population. As a result, older age groups are gaining proportionately greater weight in the overall age structure. Compared with the population as a whole, the older age components will grow quite rapidly in the coming de- cades. While the total population is projected to increase 2.2 percent per year during the next 16 years, the 65 to 74 age group will grow 40 percent faster, and the 75-and-over age group, 70 percent faster (table 1). In 1989,7.4 percent of all Guaterna- lans (650,000 persons) are at least 55 years old, somewhat less than the ag- gregate Middle American percent- age (table 2). By 2020, this propor- tion will exceed 11 percent, representing 1.8 million people. The cohorts of the oldest old also will as- sume greater relative importance. The number of persons aged 75years and older is projected to more than triple between 1989 and 2020. Table 1. pean countries now have ratios be- Average AnnllPl Ptmnt Growth of Older Population: tween 20 and 30. 1989toU)(Mand2005to2025 EDUCATIONAL 75 years Countrv Period and over A'ITAINMENT Guatemala l!W-U)(M Educational attainment contributes 2ooS-2020 to the well-being of the elderly. For- Belize 1989-UW)5 mal education enhances economic 2005-2020 prospects and pennits young adults Haiti 1989-UW)5 to prepare for their old age.. In most 2005-mu) societies, the average educational at- Honduras 1989-2005 tainment of the elderly is consider- 2005-2020 ably lower than that of the younger population. This is particularly true Table 2. 8.1. This is projected to increase vey in developing countries. Percentage of Population in Older slowly over the next three decades, Agc Croups: 1989 to 2020 Guatemala's elderly have had very reaching 9.3 by the year 2020 (figure limited educational opportunities. 2). During the same period, Guate- Region or 55and 65and 75and Among persons 65years and older in country Year over over over mala's youth support ratio (persons 1981, only 3 percent of men and 2 under age 20 per 100 population aged percent of women had completed Middle 1989 20 to 64) is expected to fall dramati- America 2005 schooling at the secondary level. 2020 cally, from 137 in 1989 to 66 in 2020. Even these low percentages repre- Beyond 2020, Guatemala can expect sented an improvement since 1973, Guatemala 1989 when the figures were around 1per- 2885 a rapidly increasing elderly support 283) ratio. The trend after 2020 for cent for each gender. Guatemala will resemble the trend The educational level of the elderly Belize 1989 for Costa Rica during the period 2005 will continue to improve as the popu- 2020 1989-2020. Costa Rica, which had lation ages. Guatemalans aged 25 to major mortality and fertility declines 44 are better educated than the cur- Honduras 1989 well in advance of Guatemala, will rent elderly. In 1981, more than 7 2005 2020 experience a signficant increase in percent of men and 5 percent of its elderly support ratio, from 9 in women in this age range had com- 1989 to 15 by 2020. By way of com- pleted theu high school education SUPPORT RATIO parison, Uruguay and many Euro- (table' 3). The elderly support ratio (number of pemm aged 65 and over per 100 Figure 2. population aged 20 to 64) tracks the size of the elderly--- a~egroup relative Elderly Support Ratios: 1989 to 2020 to the working-age popul~ion. An (Population 65 years and over per 100 persons 20 to 64 years) increasing ratio indicates greater po- 25 r tential economic dependency of the elderly and signals asociety'sneed to plan for appropriate services. -- - Uruguay In developing countries, the elderly support 'ratio tends to increase slowly in the earlier periods of the demo- graphic transition as large birth co- horts enter the working age popula- 15 tion (i.e., the ratio denominator). However, as these cohorts reach old age, and the number of annual en- trants to the labor force declines (the result of declines in fertility), the el- derly support ratio may increase sub- I Guatemala stantially. The Guatemalan population cur- rently has an elderly support ratio of lhble 3. dustrial sector in the cities, and the Percentage of Population Having Completed fact that elderly workers in rural ar- Secondary Education: 1973 and 1981 eas tend to continue working longer than their urban counterparts. 25 to 45 to 55 to 65 yean 44 years 54 yean 64 years and over 1973 LIFE EXPECTANCY AND Males 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.5 MORTALITY Females 1.5 1.1 .9 .6 198 1 As social conditions improve in a Males 7.2 4.1 2.9 2.9 country, the life eqectancy of the Females 5.4 3.1 2.3 2.3 population increases. Guatemala's level of life exmchncy is low, com- pared with &any hiin American LABOR F'ORCE mtionamong the countries, but relatively large im- derly is production (manufacturing)' PARTICIPATION Drovements for the countm are a- The labor force participation of Gua- Labor force members aged 25 to 44 i>ected. Life expectancy ai birth is temalans follows a pattern common also are concentrated in agriculture, presently around 62 years, and is to many developing countries. More although less so than elderly work- projected to increase to nearly 69 than 95 percent of adult men be- ers; younger workers have a 25 per- years by 2005 (table 4). In Guate- tween the ages of 25 and 54 work. cent higher concentration in produc- mala, as elsewhere, women gened- F~~the cohorts aged 55 and over, the tion jobs than do the elderly. These ly live longer than men. While men Droportion of men working, declines differences reflect the rise of the in- live 60 years on average, women kth age (figure 3). everth he less, Figure 3. two-thirds of all men aged 65 and over were economicallv active in Formal Labor Force Participation Rates: 1973 and 1981 1981. 100 Percent Formal female labor force participa- tion rates are much lower than those of men. Only 15 percent of women 80 aged 25 to 44 were reported to be working at the time of the 1981 cen- sus, and the rate for women aged 65 60 and over was less than 7 percent. These levels, low even by developing country standards (elderly women in 40 neighboring Mexico are three times more likely to report economic activ- Women ity), are suggestive of the difficulty 20 that women face in accumulating as- sets for old age. I I I I 0 1 I As economic development and ur- 25-44 4549 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 + banization increase, individuals tend to quit working at an earlier age. Figure 4. There is some indication that such a Distribution of Workers by Occupational trend is under way in Guatemala. Categorg: 1981 Among men aged 65 and over in 1973,70 percent worked; by 1981, the ~rof.frech. 6.9 Ages 25 to 44 level had fallen slightly, to 67 per- Ages 65 and over cent. This decline is likely to contin- ue as other means of income (retire- [;..: ment benefits, savings, etc.) become c~etica~ increasingly available. F:.' -6.5 Sales Elderly workers in Guatemala are 6.7 primarily agrarian. The latest two Agriculture population censuses show that this 64.4 situation has persisted through the 1970's and into the 1980's. In 1981, ~rociuction nearly two-thirds of the 68,000elder- ly workers were engaged in agricul- setvices m:: ture (fieure 4). The second most average nearly 65 years of life (figure Figure 5. Male 9. Life Expectancy at Birth: 1989 Female The leading causes of death among the aged of Guatemala are influenza Guatemi and pneumonia, intestinal infec- tions, and nutritional deficiencies (PAHO, 1986, Vol. I). The pattern of Hondur mortality in Guatemala is typical of less developed countries where in- fectious and parasitic diseases have not yet been widely and uniformly controlled. Bble 4. Costa R Estimated and Projected Life Ex- pectancy at Birth: ,1989to 2020 Figure 6. Country 1989 2005 2020 Percent of Older Population Widowed, by Age: 1981 Guatemala 62.3 68.7 73.3 Honduras 65.0 71.9 76.2 Mexico 71.3 76.8 79.6 CostaRica 76.1 79.7 81.2 18.6 Pertinent to the efficient use of lim- 65 and over ited public health resources is the 1- recognition of high risk factors with respect to mortality. For example, mortality among the Mayan Indian 75 and ovel population is estimated to be 50 per- cent higher than that of the mestizo - population. Also, mortality is esti- mated to be a third higher in rural ar- eas than in urban areas (PAHO, 1986, Vol. 11). Programs to reduce meprevalence of the extended fam- the Americas, 1981-1984, Volumes I mortality where the levels are most ily in many developing societies and 11, Washington, DC.